Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

BartholomewRoberts said:

Andy_JS said:

Does anyone agree with me that it will slightly take the shine off a big Labour win if the Tories and RefUK combined get more votes than Labour? For example if it's Lab 40%, Con 25%, Ref 16%.

No, of course it would not.

No more than the shine is taken off a big Tory win if the Labour and Lib Dem votes combined are more than the Tory vote.

Tory 40%, Lab 25%, LD 16% is still a landslide Tory victory.
Lab 40%, Tory 25%, Refuk 16% is still a landslide Labour victory.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

boulay said:

Farooq said:

boulay said:

Heathener said:

Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.

I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy

I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.

Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?

Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.

I don’t know who they are. Before my time.

The 1970’s are half a century ago

I know the phrase ‘to the manner born’

Been on TV many times since then. You are something of an Enigma. Kids that can be left while you write books in Norway, so adult, but doesn’t remember the late seventies (or re-runs in the eighties). Uses a stick to beat people off in supermarkets.
I guess we all have our knowledge gaps - music is mine. So often on PB reports that X or Y has died and I have no idea who they are.

Music used to be one of my specialist subjects, I just looked at the current top 20 singles and the only one I know (by artist/title) is Houdini by Eminem, that is a new entry at #1.

https://www.officialcharts.com/charts/uk-top-40-singles-chart/

Other than Eminem, I heard #4 (A bar song (Tipsy)) for the first time earlier today, my wife asked me to play it while driving which was a challenge with the speech recognition as at first it just played a random bar song playlist instead.

Both my wife and I love #10 (Austin), that's a lot of fun and one I regularly play.

My wife likes #19 (Beautiful Things) so I listen to that a few times, I'm not too fussed with it.

The rest of the Top 20 I don't recognise. But then again a lot of the music I stream is new[ish] but may never have made the Top 20 in this country, music like other entertainment forms is a lot more diverse nowadays, we don't all listen to the same things.

Interesting.

There’s probably a handful I’d know to listen to, but wouldn’t know artist and title - but I don’t listen to a lot of music radio any more, preferring talk stations and podcasts on long journeys, or doing down a random YouTube music rabbithole which tends to suggest older songs that I know anyway.

I’d love to know what the radio edit of the Eminem track sounds like, becuase the video edit is definitely not anywhere close to radio-friendly.

I don't listen to any radio at all, I stream music while I'm driving.

The streaming app discovers new music for us based on what we play and what we skip etc - the funny thing with streaming is then a lot of music we discover is popular in eg America or Canada or Australia but not really made it here.

My wife discovers a lot more new music than I do, mainly from the fact she's on TikTok and I'm not. She really loves an American artist called Noah Kahan who seems to have recently made it here too.

My favourite new artists at the moment are all foreign female soloists oddly enough. Peach PRC, Jax, Taylor Acorn etc - all from abroad AFAIK and not even sure if any of them are played on the radio here or not.

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Andy_JS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Andy_JS said:

Does anyone agree with me that it will slightly take the shine off a big Labour win if the Tories and RefUK combined get more votes than Labour? For example if it's Lab 40%, Con 25%, Ref 16%.

No, of course it would not.

No more than the shine is taken off a big Tory win if the Labour and Lib Dem votes combined are more than the Tory vote.

Tory 40%, Lab 25%, LD 16% is still a landslide Tory victory.
Lab 40%, Tory 25%, Refuk 16% is still a landslide Labour victory.

I think it would slightly, especially the closer the combined total gets to 50%.

Andy_JS said:

Does anyone agree with me that it will slightly take the shine off a big Labour win if the Tories and RefUK combined get more votes than Labour? For example if it's Lab 40%, Con 25%, Ref 16%.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Having seen one or two clips, and from the seeming 'it was all crap' annoyance from our more left-inclined posters, can we chalk this up to a victory for the Faragegasm?

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Farooq said:

Sandpit said:

Farooq said:

boulay said:

…

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

boulay said:

Farooq said:

boulay said:

Heathener said:

Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.

I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy

I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.

Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?

Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.

Peter Bowles, but his character was Richard De Vere...

Richard De Vere was also in Pretty Woman.

Pretty Woman, by the way, was released closer to the time that Anthony Eden was PM than to today.

I don’t care if that is true. It’s wonderful like the fact that on a time basis it’s more accurate to depict a human to being mauled by a T-Rex than a stegosaurus.

Alas, it's actually true
Eden 1957 -> Pretty Woman 1990 -> Now 2024
33 years, 34 years.

My reference for that era is the song Ride On Time by Black Box, which was #1 all summer in 1989, 35 years ago.

35 years before that, was 1954, the era of Doris Day and Frank Sinatra.

Victorian era
(59 years)
The Beatles formed
(64 years)
Now

D-Day - more precisely, as pointed out on here today, OVERLORD - was closer to the American Civil War than today ...

Overlord was the overall operation

Neptune was the landing on the beaches

D-Day comes from the military code for dates and times. You never write down the details. Instead, the orders looked something like -

"On D-Day, at H-Hour, M-Minute, units {something} will land on Omaha, Sword, Gold and Juno, At H+1....." etc

The idea is that the vital information is in times and locations - which could then be tightly held, or changed and given late in the process.

Nigelb said:

Watching The Acolyte (in sympathy with TSE).
I get that the tech is resolutely 1970s - that’s just the origin story - but why is the costume aesthetic Middle Ages ?

Benpointer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Benpointer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Andy_JS said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

boulay said:

Farooq said:

boulay said:

Heathener said:

Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.

I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy

I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.

Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?

Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.

I don’t know who they are. Before my time.

The 1970’s are half a century ago

I know the phrase ‘to the manner born’

Do you only know about things that have happened in your lifetime?

Most people know things that happened in their lifetime better, yes.

I know To the Manor Born as it was still getting repeated in the 90s when I was a teen, but I wouldn't expect anyone younger than me to know it.

It's sometimes shown on BBC2 on Tuesday evenings along with Yes Minister.

Yes, but how many young people watch BBC on Tuesday evenings?

I haven't watched live TV in years. My kids pretty much never have and probably never will.

You never watch live sport?

Sky Sports was the last live TV I watched about two years ago.

Cancelled my Sky subscription when we moved a couple of years ago, I got pissed off that about half the games I wanted to watch with my subscription weren't available to watch with it and an alternative method of streaming them was required so eventually just started streaming all rather than half.

Now I just stream sport. Probably best not to say how.

'Theft' is the word you're looking for, I believe.

Alphabet_Soup said:

Malmesbury said:

OnboardG1 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OnboardG1 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

DM_Andy said:

Are Reclaim standing anywhere? I saw that they are offering £5k to any candidate of any party that will agree to their 4 key policies.

I get confused between them all. Reform, Reclaim, Rebound, Resuscitate, Regurgitate, Repatriate.

Repeat ad infinitum

Is that the conspiracy brigade that Lawrence Fox fronts?

I know it is Fox's mob but I honestly don't know what they stand for. Have they ever made that clear or is it just another vanity project?

I think it's basically conspiracy twitter copy-pasted into a pdf. Gay nazi communists are putting sex-change chemicals in the vaccines sort of unhinged drivel.

No no no.

Nazi gay islamic jewish communists are putting the sex-change chemicals in the *water*. The vaccines make you magnetic.

OPE

Water is very convenient for a shower but does anyone actually drink the stuff?

Chameleon said:

Tories looking like value in Leicester East - area is getting more Hindu, which as a demographic is going Conservative, Hindu candidate, Hindu PM, 3* unknown Indies, Labour (living in London), Webbe, Vaz, Lab, LD, and Greens all standing. Floor of 35 odd percent should be enough.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andy_JS said:

Liquid checks to be re-introduced at airports which had briefly got rid of them.

Talk about going backwards.

Any reason given? Someone got wind of something?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Having seen one or two clips, and from the seeming 'it was all crap' annoyance from our more left-inclined posters, can we chalk this up to a victory for the Faragegasm?

Luckyguy1983 said:

So it would appear that Liz Truss's interview was nothing to do with this Carl Benjamin character - she wasn't interviewed by him or on his show.

https://www.gbnews.com/news/bev-turner-sits-down-with-connor-tomlinson-to-discuss-liz-truss-controversy-this-is-about-free-speech-right-vs-left

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andy_JS said:

Liquid checks to be re-introduced at airports which had briefly got rid of them.

Talk about going backwards.

Any reason given? Someone got wind of something?

BartholomewRoberts said:

Benpointer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Benpointer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Andy_JS said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

boulay said:

Farooq said:

boulay said:

Heathener said:

Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.

I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy

I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.

Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?

Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.

I don’t know who they are. Before my time.

The 1970’s are half a century ago

I know the phrase ‘to the manner born’

Do you only know about things that have happened in your lifetime?

Most people know things that happened in their lifetime better, yes.

I know To the Manor Born as it was still getting repeated in the 90s when I was a teen, but I wouldn't expect anyone younger than me to know it.

It's sometimes shown on BBC2 on Tuesday evenings along with Yes Minister.

Yes, but how many young people watch BBC on Tuesday evenings?

I haven't watched live TV in years. My kids pretty much never have and probably never will.

You never watch live sport?

Sky Sports was the last live TV I watched about two years ago.

Cancelled my Sky subscription when we moved a couple of years ago, I got pissed off that about half the games I wanted to watch with my subscription weren't available to watch with it and an alternative method of streaming them was required so eventually just started streaming all rather than half.

Now I just stream sport. Probably best not to say how.

'Theft' is the word you're looking for, I believe.

I prefer the term piracy myself.

At the end of the day I paid for the rights for years but its absurd how expensive the cost is in this country, when you only get some of the rights, when you can pay relative peanuts abroad and get all of the rights.

If I could pay a package and get all of the rights with it all in one package, as you can abroad, then I would do so for the convenience of it.

But you can't. You're forced either to pirate half the games or miss them entirely despite paying an absolute bloody fortune for the rights.

And if you're going to pirate half, you may as well pirate all.

If a bit of piracy encourages the Premier League to fix the mess, then that'd be a good thing.

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Yet no proposed IHT cut, despite Reform now raising the IHT threshold to £2 million?

A Stamp Duty cut for a few first time buyers isn't going to make any significant difference to Tory voteshare.

If that is all Sunak and Hunt have bring back Theresa May I say, at least she managed to write a manifesto that got the Tories over 40% and over 300 seats not heading for near wipeout!

There are a lot of people who are also Tory voters, me for example (ok I can’t vote) who have issues about inheritance tax being cut.

A lot of Tory voters, or target voters, have worked their bollocks off but also mixed with people who haven’t, their friends and associates have pocketed money without any effort. They see very very stupid friends walking out with millions without any skills or brains and there is a British, and Danish, thing where people aren’t happy with people flashing it without earning it.

I have many friends who’ve inherited serious millions, some have worked hard to prove themselves worthy, some have been determined to use the money as a platform to outperform, some have used the money to do good, some are lazy fuckers who have no clue - and every time the ones who are the latter are the ones who treat waiters terribly, are entitled, have no direction or fear of what comes next.

There has to be an inheritance tax so nobody can just not contribute. Some wise soul said, I want to leave them enough to do something but not enough to do nothing.

A lot of people don’t understand that without a successful society arounfpd them, a stable society, their properties would be worthless, their shares worthless etc.

It’s not money the inheritors strived for and it was on the back of millions of people who struggled but accepted an unequal society. There needs to be a balance otherwise the ones who have nothing stop tolerating the others.

Andy_JS said:

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

Does anyone agree with me that it will slightly take the shine off a big Labour win if the Tories and RefUK combined get more votes than Labour? For example if it's Lab 40%, Con 25%, Ref 16%.

No, because I think you'd have to compare Con+Ref with Lab+Green and arguably +LD, given their policy agenda. There's a comfortable majority for progressive policies in the UK right now.

But compare it with 1997. Con + Referendum Party was 31%+3% = 34%, miles behind the Labour total of 44% (before you start adding the LD and Green shares to Lab).

OnboardG1 said:

Benpointer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Benpointer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Andy_JS said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

boulay said:

Farooq said:

boulay said:

Heathener said:

Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.

I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy

I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.

Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?

Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.

I don’t know who they are. Before my time.

The 1970’s are half a century ago

I know the phrase ‘to the manner born’

Do you only know about things that have happened in your lifetime?

Most people know things that happened in their lifetime better, yes.

I know To the Manor Born as it was still getting repeated in the 90s when I was a teen, but I wouldn't expect anyone younger than me to know it.

It's sometimes shown on BBC2 on Tuesday evenings along with Yes Minister.

Yes, but how many young people watch BBC on Tuesday evenings?

I haven't watched live TV in years. My kids pretty much never have and probably never will.

You never watch live sport?

Sky Sports was the last live TV I watched about two years ago.

Cancelled my Sky subscription when we moved a couple of years ago, I got pissed off that about half the games I wanted to watch with my subscription weren't available to watch with it and an alternative method of streaming them was required so eventually just started streaming all rather than half.

Now I just stream sport. Probably best not to say how.

'Theft' is the word you're looking for, I believe.

Username checks out. To be fair, had I not a deeply ingrained moral exception to internet piracy I would absolutely be pirating the F1. That Sky is allowed to squat both the TV and streaming rights is a fucking travesty.

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Yet no proposed IHT cut, despite Reform now raising the IHT threshold to £2 million?

A Stamp Duty cut for a few first time buyers isn't going to make any significant difference to Tory voteshare.

If that is all Sunak and Hunt have bring back Theresa May I say, at least she managed to write a manifesto that got the Tories over 40% and over 300 seats not heading for near wipeout!

There are a lot of people who are also Tory voters, me for example (ok I can’t vote) who have issues about inheritance tax being cut.

A lot of Tory voters, or target voters, have worked their bollocks off but also mixed with people who haven’t, their friends and associates have pocketed money without any effort. They see very very stupid friends walking out with millions without any skills or brains and there is a British, and Danish, thing where people aren’t happy with people flashing it without earning it.

I have many friends who’ve inherited serious millions, some have worked hard to prove themselves worthy, some have been determined to use the money as a platform to outperform, some have used the money to do good, some are lazy fuckers who have no clue - and every time the ones who are the latter are the ones who treat waiters terribly, are entitled, have no direction or fear of what comes next.

There has to be an inheritance tax so nobody can just not contribute. Some wise soul said, I want to leave them enough to do something but not enough to do nothing.

A lot of people don’t understand that without a successful society arounfpd them, a stable society, their properties would be worthless, their shares worthless etc.

It’s not money the inheritors strived for and it was on the back of millions of people who struggled but accepted an unequal society. There needs to be a balance otherwise the ones who have nothing stop tolerating the others.

I am not saying there should be not inheritance tax at all, though 55% say it should be abolished completely but certainly the threshold should be raised to £2million+ in my view so only the very richest pay that.

65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters back raising the threshold above £325k

https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-of-public-now-supports-scrapping-iht-and-even-a-majority-of-labour-voters-oppose-raising-the-current-40-iht-rate

RochdalePioneers said:

Congratulations to @david_herdson running for the Yorkshire Party in Ossett & Denny Dale

https://x.com/davidherdson/status/1799150726356103590?s=46

HYUFD said:

Chameleon said:

Tories looking like value in Leicester East - area is getting more Hindu, which as a demographic is going Conservative, Hindu candidate, Hindu PM, 3* unknown Indies, Labour (living in London), Webbe, Vaz, Lab, LD, and Greens all standing. Floor of 35 odd percent should be enough.

Perhaps once he loses Rishi could stand for Mayor of Leicester, only place in the UK he seems to have raised Tory voteshare?

Might need to go on a course on effective political management first though

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Yet no proposed IHT cut, despite Reform now raising the IHT threshold to £2 million?

A Stamp Duty cut for a few first time buyers isn't going to make any significant difference to Tory voteshare.

If that is all Sunak and Hunt have bring back Theresa May I say, at least she managed to write a manifesto that got the Tories over 40% and over 300 seats not heading for near wipeout!

There are a lot of people who are also Tory voters, me for example (ok I can’t vote) who have issues about inheritance tax being cut.

A lot of Tory voters, or target voters, have worked their bollocks off but also mixed with people who haven’t, their friends and associates have pocketed money without any effort. They see very very stupid friends walking out with millions without any skills or brains and there is a British, and Danish, thing where people aren’t happy with people flashing it without earning it.

I have many friends who’ve inherited serious millions, some have worked hard to prove themselves worthy, some have been determined to use the money as a platform to outperform, some have used the money to do good, some are lazy fuckers who have no clue - and every time the ones who are the latter are the ones who treat waiters terribly, are entitled, have no direction or fear of what comes next.

There has to be an inheritance tax so nobody can just not contribute. Some wise soul said, I want to leave them enough to do something but not enough to do nothing.

A lot of people don’t understand that without a successful society arounfpd them, a stable society, their properties would be worthless, their shares worthless etc.

It’s not money the inheritors strived for and it was on the back of millions of people who struggled but accepted an unequal society. There needs to be a balance otherwise the ones who have nothing stop tolerating the others.

I am not saying there should be not inheritance tax at all, though 55% say it should be abolished completely but certainly the threshold should be raised to £2million+ in my view so only the very richest pay that.

65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters back raising the threshold above £325k

https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-of-public-now-supports-scrapping-iht-and-even-a-majority-of-labour-voters-oppose-raising-the-current-40-iht-rate

A rate of 20 or 25% with a lower exempt amount would quite possibly bring in more than IHT currently does.

Gardenwalker said:

What happened to the supposed Mass Defection Event which was rumoured to trigger the Farage-gasm?

Didn’t happen.

This has been an appalling week for the Tories, but I wonder if Reform will really profit sustainably.

Andy_JS said:

These are the 4 candidates facing the electorate in Rotherham:

Labour
Worker's Party
Green
Reform UK

What could possibly go wrong? Well done Tories.

https://x.com/WillReformUK/status/1799110792585052192

Gardenwalker said:

I watched the debate.

Mordaunt did surprisingly well, given the appalling wicket. Rayner was fluid annd imperious. Farage delivered some great lines but we’ve heard it all before.

The Welsh guy, Cooper and the Scottish guy were all fine.

The Green was totally cringe.

Doubt it changed a single vote, so on those grounds, Labour “won”.

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Yet no proposed IHT cut, despite Reform now raising the IHT threshold to £2 million?

A Stamp Duty cut for a few first time buyers isn't going to make any significant difference to Tory voteshare.

If that is all Sunak and Hunt have bring back Theresa May I say, at least she managed to write a manifesto that got the Tories over 40% and over 300 seats not heading for near wipeout!

There are a lot of people who are also Tory voters, me for example (ok I can’t vote) who have issues about inheritance tax being cut.

A lot of Tory voters, or target voters, have worked their bollocks off but also mixed with people who haven’t, their friends and associates have pocketed money without any effort. They see very very stupid friends walking out with millions without any skills or brains and there is a British, and Danish, thing where people aren’t happy with people flashing it without earning it.

I have many friends who’ve inherited serious millions, some have worked hard to prove themselves worthy, some have been determined to use the money as a platform to outperform, some have used the money to do good, some are lazy fuckers who have no clue - and every time the ones who are the latter are the ones who treat waiters terribly, are entitled, have no direction or fear of what comes next.

There has to be an inheritance tax so nobody can just not contribute. Some wise soul said, I want to leave them enough to do something but not enough to do nothing.

A lot of people don’t understand that without a successful society arounfpd them, a stable society, their properties would be worthless, their shares worthless etc.

It’s not money the inheritors strived for and it was on the back of millions of people who struggled but accepted an unequal society. There needs to be a balance otherwise the ones who have nothing stop tolerating the others.

I am not saying there should be not inheritance tax at all, though 55% say it should be abolished completely but certainly the threshold should be raised to £2million+ in my view so only the very richest pay that.

65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters back raising the threshold above £325k

https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-of-public-now-supports-scrapping-iht-and-even-a-majority-of-labour-voters-oppose-raising-the-current-40-iht-rate

Fair enough but we all pluck these figures out of our arses, £2m etc. why not get some seriously bright people to work out a plan where you can leave your loved ones your hard earned but respect that there land is worthless if there are hungry reevers ready to take it from them. Every bit of wealth in the ipuk is requiring stability and society to make it worth anything.

Get a commission to analyse property transfer, cash/stock transfer, give it different levels that allow the originator of the wealth to support their progeny but also to reflect that their progeny had absolutely no input or skill in making it.

It’s the Succession thing. I remember watching succession and laughing where they were fighting the dad about what he did with the money as it was wha ie seen personally. You want to scream at them and say “ you didn’t make this money you entitled fuckers”. There has to be a balance between setting your family up with understanding it doesn’t happen if society doesn’t work. You can have an amazing house but it’s shit if there are no cleaners and gardeners. It’s great having money to eat out but pointless if there are no waiters or bar staff.

OnboardG1 said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Yet no proposed IHT cut, despite Reform now raising the IHT threshold to £2 million?

A Stamp Duty cut for a few first time buyers isn't going to make any significant difference to Tory voteshare.

If that is all Sunak and Hunt have bring back Theresa May I say, at least she managed to write a manifesto that got the Tories over 40% and over 300 seats not heading for near wipeout!

There are a lot of people who are also Tory voters, me for example (ok I can’t vote) who have issues about inheritance tax being cut.

A lot of Tory voters, or target voters, have worked their bollocks off but also mixed with people who haven’t, their friends and associates have pocketed money without any effort. They see very very stupid friends walking out with millions without any skills or brains and there is a British, and Danish, thing where people aren’t happy with people flashing it without earning it.

I have many friends who’ve inherited serious millions, some have worked hard to prove themselves worthy, some have been determined to use the money as a platform to outperform, some have used the money to do good, some are lazy fuckers who have no clue - and every time the ones who are the latter are the ones who treat waiters terribly, are entitled, have no direction or fear of what comes next.

There has to be an inheritance tax so nobody can just not contribute. Some wise soul said, I want to leave them enough to do something but not enough to do nothing.

A lot of people don’t understand that without a successful society arounfpd them, a stable society, their properties would be worthless, their shares worthless etc.

It’s not money the inheritors strived for and it was on the back of millions of people who struggled but accepted an unequal society. There needs to be a balance otherwise the ones who have nothing stop tolerating the others.

I am not saying there should be not inheritance tax at all, though 55% say it should be abolished completely but certainly the threshold should be raised to £2million+ in my view so only the very richest pay that.

65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters back raising the threshold above £325k

https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-of-public-now-supports-scrapping-iht-and-even-a-majority-of-labour-voters-oppose-raising-the-current-40-iht-rate

A rate of 20 or 25% with a lower exempt amount would quite possibly bring in more than IHT currently does.

At £2m or so they're already evading or avoiding IHT so HYUFD's suggestion is about as useful as a chocolate welding torch.

Property tends to be the big crunch for going over thresholds and people get attached to family homes. So I tend to think that there should be a relatively high rate, low threshold but with a carve out for one property. Provided you live in it for five years. Sell it within that time and the taxman comes knocking.

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

What happened to the supposed Mass Defection Event which was rumoured to trigger the Farage-gasm?

Didn’t happen.

This has been an appalling week for the Tories, but I wonder if Reform will really profit sustainably.

Reform haven't even managed to get a candidate nominated for over 60% Leave Epping Forest!

Yes they are fighting most seats but they seem to have found candidates in almost every seat in inner London where they have zero chance but not in what should be some prime targets for them like Epping Forest. Whoever was getting their candidates confirmed obviously is no master strategist

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Yet no proposed IHT cut, despite Reform now raising the IHT threshold to £2 million?

A Stamp Duty cut for a few first time buyers isn't going to make any significant difference to Tory voteshare.

If that is all Sunak and Hunt have bring back Theresa May I say, at least she managed to write a manifesto that got the Tories over 40% and over 300 seats not heading for near wipeout!

There are a lot of people who are also Tory voters, me for example (ok I can’t vote) who have issues about inheritance tax being cut.

A lot of Tory voters, or target voters, have worked their bollocks off but also mixed with people who haven’t, their friends and associates have pocketed money without any effort. They see very very stupid friends walking out with millions without any skills or brains and there is a British, and Danish, thing where people aren’t happy with people flashing it without earning it.

I have many friends who’ve inherited serious millions, some have worked hard to prove themselves worthy, some have been determined to use the money as a platform to outperform, some have used the money to do good, some are lazy fuckers who have no clue - and every time the ones who are the latter are the ones who treat waiters terribly, are entitled, have no direction or fear of what comes next.

There has to be an inheritance tax so nobody can just not contribute. Some wise soul said, I want to leave them enough to do something but not enough to do nothing.

A lot of people don’t understand that without a successful society arounfpd them, a stable society, their properties would be worthless, their shares worthless etc.

It’s not money the inheritors strived for and it was on the back of millions of people who struggled but accepted an unequal society. There needs to be a balance otherwise the ones who have nothing stop tolerating the others.

I am not saying there should be not inheritance tax at all, though 55% say it should be abolished completely but certainly the threshold should be raised to £2million+ in my view so only the very richest pay that.

65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters back raising the threshold above £325k

https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-of-public-now-supports-scrapping-iht-and-even-a-majority-of-labour-voters-oppose-raising-the-current-40-iht-rate

Fair enough but we all pluck these figures out of our arses, £2m etc. why not get some seriously bright people to work out a plan where you can leave your loved ones your hard earned but respect that there land is worthless if there are hungry reevers ready to take it from them. Every bit of wealth in the ipuk is requiring stability and society to make it worth anything.

Get a commission to analyse property transfer, cash/stock transfer, give it different levels that allow the originator of the wealth to support their progeny but also to reflect that their progeny had absolutely no input or skill in making it.

It’s the Succession thing. I remember watching succession and laughing where they were fighting the dad about what he did with the money as it was wha ie seen personally. You want to scream at them and say “ you didn’t make this money you entitled fuckers”. There has to be a balance between setting your family up with understanding it doesn’t happen if society doesn’t work. You can have an amazing house but it’s shit if there are no cleaners and gardeners. It’s great having money to eat out but pointless if there are no waiters or bar staff.

Andy_JS said:

These are the 4 candidates facing the electorate in Rotherham:

Labour
Worker's Party
Green
Reform UK

What could possibly go wrong? Well done Tories.

https://x.com/WillReformUK/status/1799110792585052192

Tim_in_Ruislip said:

Let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Rishi Sunak doesn't know what he's doing.

He knows exactly what he's doing.

Carnyx said:

OnboardG1 said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Tory HQ desperately shovelling out the entire manifesto tonight to try and move the agenda on from D-Day is a further example of the chaos inside the campaign.

Yet no proposed IHT cut, despite Reform now raising the IHT threshold to £2 million?

A Stamp Duty cut for a few first time buyers isn't going to make any significant difference to Tory voteshare.

If that is all Sunak and Hunt have bring back Theresa May I say, at least she managed to write a manifesto that got the Tories over 40% and over 300 seats not heading for near wipeout!

There are a lot of people who are also Tory voters, me for example (ok I can’t vote) who have issues about inheritance tax being cut.

A lot of Tory voters, or target voters, have worked their bollocks off but also mixed with people who haven’t, their friends and associates have pocketed money without any effort. They see very very stupid friends walking out with millions without any skills or brains and there is a British, and Danish, thing where people aren’t happy with people flashing it without earning it.

I have many friends who’ve inherited serious millions, some have worked hard to prove themselves worthy, some have been determined to use the money as a platform to outperform, some have used the money to do good, some are lazy fuckers who have no clue - and every time the ones who are the latter are the ones who treat waiters terribly, are entitled, have no direction or fear of what comes next.

There has to be an inheritance tax so nobody can just not contribute. Some wise soul said, I want to leave them enough to do something but not enough to do nothing.

A lot of people don’t understand that without a successful society arounfpd them, a stable society, their properties would be worthless, their shares worthless etc.

It’s not money the inheritors strived for and it was on the back of millions of people who struggled but accepted an unequal society. There needs to be a balance otherwise the ones who have nothing stop tolerating the others.

I am not saying there should be not inheritance tax at all, though 55% say it should be abolished completely but certainly the threshold should be raised to £2million+ in my view so only the very richest pay that.

65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters back raising the threshold above £325k

https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-of-public-now-supports-scrapping-iht-and-even-a-majority-of-labour-voters-oppose-raising-the-current-40-iht-rate

A rate of 20 or 25% with a lower exempt amount would quite possibly bring in more than IHT currently does.

At £2m or so they're already evading or avoiding IHT so HYUFD's suggestion is about as useful as a chocolate welding torch.

Property tends to be the big crunch for going over thresholds and people get attached to family homes. So I tend to think that there should be a relatively high rate, low threshold but with a carve out for one property. Provided you live in it for five years. Sell it within that time and the taxman comes knocking.

No good; that merely pampers Tory voters in the Home Counties as opposed to Labour voters in Sedgefield and drives up the hotspot around London*. I'm coming round to the idea of abolishing IHT and imposing CGT on all inheritances - everyone has an allowance, and so on.

*Which is why HYUFD loves it, not entirely irrationally for him.

boulay said:

Gardenwalker said:

Heathener’s claim to have never heard of “To The Manor Born” is like that scene from Inglorious Basterds where the spy outs himself as non-German with the wrong hand gesture.

So heathener isn’t the clever Jewish girl who avoids the kosher trap in the restaurant with the cream cake?

ohnotnow said:

Gardenwalker said:

Tim_in_Ruislip said:

Let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Rishi Sunak doesn't know what he's doing.

He knows exactly what he's doing.

Which is what?

Interpretive dance.

Benpointer said:

Daily Star having some fun:

Carnyx said:

boulay said:

Gardenwalker said:

Heathener’s claim to have never heard of “To The Manor Born” is like that scene from Inglorious Basterds where the spy outs himself as non-German with the wrong hand gesture.

So heathener isn’t the clever Jewish girl who avoids the kosher trap in the restaurant with the cream cake?

Not fair to Heathener. I've never seen it myself and know of it only by incidental mentions such as this on PB. Wasn't interested in that sort of stuff.

dixiedean said:

Said it before.
When a political story makes the Star front page it's cut through.
It is the antennae of the low information voters.

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

Matthew Parris: "Is it too late for Rishi Sunak to fall on his sword?"

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/is-it-too-late-for-sunak-to-fall-on-his-sword-rr63k0p8h

At this rate he'd probably miss.