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What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    Also the Russians probably know who and where you are if you're using it so close to the front.
    Hold on, I thought I was a “putinist shill” and a “fucking appeaser”. Surely vlad is holding off the drones to spare me so I can continue spreading my pro Russian lies?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537
    edited June 2024

    That's some way to word a caveat. Is he trying to Ratner their own poll?
    Problem with the inability to post tweets is that you can't tell where the tweet and ends and my comment begins.

    Everything from From Memory is my comment and I know that YouGov have been clear that labour are going to drop slightly with Lib Dems increasing - the posts I've read haven't covered how the changes impact Tory / Reform percentages - and with Farage returning there may be some natural movement alongside the methodology changes...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2024
    I mean, I'm really pissed off and somewhat baffled by the scheduling on Friday.

    I might have mentioned it once or twice.

    The Beeb's scheduler is clearly a lazy quarterwit good-for-nothing. They could have staged the debate at 6.15pm – prime time – and it would have been all over just as the England and Scotland teams kicked off, on the other channel. Or just do it the previous night.

    Now most people will miss what could be a fun debate – Angela, Penny, Nige, Daisy and some random nationalists for good measure. But no, football it is.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    Leon said:

    Serious question. What do you think happens to a liberal society if you import millions of illiberal people, and it turns out they don’t assimilate, and instead they persist in those values?

    I can tell you. What you get is an increasingly less liberal society. More hostile to Jews and gays, and - in the end - not great for women. And that is exactly what we are seeing

    Which part of this do you still dispute?
    If anyone is prepared to admit to being Jewish I can recommend the funniest book ever written and much more interesting and informative than the sterile racist bilge Leon pumps out daily.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    @tomorrowsmps
    🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere.
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579

    Are you standing?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    nico679 said:

    This isn’t 2016 .

    Some are saying Labour shouldn’t try and refute the tax claims as it draws attention to them . The difference now is the public are more likely to think the Tories are liars so Sunaks claim was probably on shaky ground anyway . And Sunak repeated the lie throughout the debate .

    Starmer decided to lay a trap for Sunak and Labour will now use the liar tag for the next month to attack him .

    Lol. The glorious leader was simply trying to appear crap in the debate against Sunak. It was all part of his cunning plan. The look of panic and frustration was due to acting skills he acquired from Sir Tony Blair
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Sandpit said:

    Are you standing?
    No, not on the approved list
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757

    And of course there is mateism. Everyone knows someone who can get them things or places the rest of us cant get.
    Do we stop that too ?
    Nope, that is only going to be stopped for people in the private sector. I mean, the public sector and the Labour Party would simply fall apart if nepotism was disallowed!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Roger said:

    If anyone is prepared to admit to being Jewish I can recommend the funniest book ever written and much more interesting and informative than the sterile racist bilge Leon pumps out daily.
    Does it have a chapter called never take chewing gum from a mohel ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    As pointed out by @Foxy yesterday, she has bought millions of pounds worth of advertising for her porn site for the princely sum of £1.79*






    *(the cost of a banana milkshake at McDonald's apparently)
    Was it not a large one.

    The milkshake I mean!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2024
    ToryJim said:

    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.

    That is absurd. I have met Holden and he is a capable politician but that is totally undemocratic.

    CCHQ can just about get away with imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on Associations with no local candidate as they have been doing as at least the membership locally get a choice of those 3.

    However for CCHQ to impose just 1 candidate on an Association removes even that choice
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    HYUFD said:

    No, not on the approved list
    If they are that desperate they’ll make an exception
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    eek said:

    Sam Coates Sky
    @SamCoatesSky
    ·
    11m
    There’s a new Sky / YouGov poll coming at 5pm

    It’s interesting - but note it’s done under new methodology.

    So read the full story on our website to see the comparisons of old and new.

    And for why they’ve done it, look here:

    From memory I think it's going to end up with a lower Labour % with Lib Dems higher and (possibly) Tory votes lower with Reform higher.

    The latter may not be that truthful / accurate though so any drop / increase in Tory votes probably needs a bit of salt with it.

    Reality is this YouGov poll is more a fresh starting point for subsequent ones than a continuation of the historic ones.

    That's actually a reasonably modest claim rather than the usual silly ramp. Not quite the "we've got a poll coming out later but it's MOE so I wouldn't get too excited" – but better than the typical "you won't want to miss this super-soaraway BOOM! poll" ... which in any case turns out to be MOE.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Was it not a large one.

    The milkshake I mean!
    And in my experience they are usually thicke than that and you need an industrial suction pump too
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    Leon said:

    Hold on, I thought I was a “putinist shill” and a “fucking appeaser”. Surely vlad is holding off the drones to spare me so I can continue spreading my pro Russian lies?
    Yea, but he might have decided you are past your sell by. Keep away from hotel windows.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. Don't think changing methodology just when an election arrives is a good idea for a pollster. Overall accuracy should be provided by various pollsters doing what they do with obviously similar underlying data.
    The change is they are going to run the raw figures through the MRP methodology to get the national percentages - I think that is basically saying we trust the MRP filters more than our previous ones..
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,137
    edited June 2024
    O/T

    "'Sadistic' women who filmed themselves torturing man to death jailed for at least 26 years

    Zoe Rider and Nicola Lethbridge carried out a "vicious and extremely violent joint attack" on 60-year-old Stephen Koszyczarski in his Sheffield flat last year. They left him with 22 separate injuries after falsely accusing him of being a paedophile.

    Jurors at the trial were shown harrowing footage shot by Rider and Lethbridge, which included them threatening to mutilate Mr Koszyczarski with scissors."

    https://news.sky.com/story/sadistic-women-who-filmed-themselves-torturing-man-to-death-jailed-for-at-least-26-years-13148296
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092

    Fraser Nelson
    @FraserNelson
    ·
    1h
    The Spectator has just ran the figures for the Tories' published tax plans.

    On Sunak's maths, it works out as £3,000 tax rise per household.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    eek said:

    Problem with the inability to post tweets is that you can't tell where the tweet and ends and my comment begins.

    Everything from From Memory is my comment and I know that YouGov have been clear that labour are going to drop slightly with Lib Dems increasing - the posts I've read haven't covered how the changes impact Tory / Reform percentages - and with Farage returning there may be some natural movement alongside the methodology changes...
    It would be a lucky break for Farage if his comeback coincides with a methodology change that boosts their polling figures.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    As pointed out by @Foxy yesterday, she has bought millions of pounds worth of advertising for her porn site for the princely sum of £1.79*






    *(the cost of a banana milkshake at McDonald's apparently)
    Which is why the State needs to prosecute this as an aggravated assault, because there’s now thousands of these “influencers” who think its okay to assault someone for publicity. She should be remanded in custody and expect six months, and Nigel should be free to set his lawyers on her for civil damages.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,137
    edited June 2024
    ToryJim said:

    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.

    Basildon & Billericay is going Labour according to one or two of the MRPs.

    https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825
    Leon said:

    What the Left has wrought, part 8,923

    “Slightly stunned by this.

    A new UnHerd/Focaldata poll out today reveals that 54% of Britons aged 18-24 agree with the statement: "The state of Israel should not exist" 😶”

    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1798313387908313514?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Leon said:

    What the Left has wrought, part 8,923

    “Slightly stunned by this.

    A new UnHerd/Focaldata poll out today reveals that 54% of Britons aged 18-24 agree with the statement: "The state of Israel should not exist" 😶”

    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1798313387908313514?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    One of the many problems of polling on non binary issues is this. The moment you are polled and ask the pollster what a question means, or try in any way to drill down on its subtleties, you meet with complete refusal to engage. It's essential to their game.

    The statement "The state of Israel should not exist" must have about a dozen or more possible significances, from one extreme of "All Jews in Israel should be killed and the land area replaced with non Jews" through "The current land mass should be a shared Palestinian/Jewish homeland" and "It should be part Israel and part Palestine" to another extreme of "Israel should occupy and reoccupy vast areas of adjacent land and render it exclusively Jewish by killing all the others".

    So draw no conclusions from data which has a quantitative but not qualitative basis.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kyf_100 said:

    Are we suggesting that her milkshake brings all the boys to the yard?
    Suspect it also brings many girls to the yard. Just my hunch.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Roger said:

    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Sandpit said:

    Which is why the State needs to prosecute this as an aggravated assault, because there’s now thousands of these “influencers” who think its okay to assault someone for publicity. She should be remanded in custody and expect six months, and Nigel should be free to set his lawyers on her for civil damages.
    Japan has apparently been suffering from a similar thing. Western influencer going there, deliberately being dicks to cause reacts from Japanese public who aren't used to this, all for the clicks.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Andy_JS said:

    Basildon & Billericay is going Labour according to one or two of the MRPs.

    https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/
    Definitely if Holden is the candidate. All the political nouse of an irradiated amoeba.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 835
    HYUFD said:

    That is absurd. I have met Holden and he is a capable politician but that is totally undemocratic.

    CCHQ can just about get away with imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on Associations with no local candidate as they have been doing as at least the membership locally get a choice of those 3.

    However for CCHQ to impose just 1 candidate on an Association removes even that choice
    He was a great constituency MP (mine).

    Then his seat was abolished for this election and he almost immediately gave up entirely. Showing he has no sense of duty; he was only ever doing it out of political cynicism.

    Unimpressed to put it mildly.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537
    HYUFD said:

    No, not on the approved list
    You mean they actually have some standards 😜

    (not meant seriously, I know it's more timing isn't right)..
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766


    Fraser Nelson
    @FraserNelson
    ·
    1h
    The Spectator has just ran the figures for the Tories' published tax plans.

    On Sunak's maths, it works out as £3,000 tax rise per household.

    LOL so that's Starmer also taxing £3000 as he's not changing anything.

    Question now is does the £2000 fall on top of the £3000 ?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537
    edited June 2024

    LOL so that's Starmer also taxing £3000 as he's not changing anything.

    Question now is does the £2000 fall on top of the £3000 ?
    It must do

    Which is why when I say there is no money and I expect taxes to increase and a wealth tax is unavoidable, it's unavoidable because the Government needs money.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484

    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    Lawmakers can't be lawbreakers latest:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4nn23kz2meo
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    Farooq said:

    PB Tories: the economy's fucked, any government will have to raise taxes
    Also PB Tories: lowering taxes generates more money for the exchequer

    Choose, fuckers.

    Both statements are true and false (see, that's a good, centrist answer, I feel so much better).

    It is impossible to talk about raising taxes and has been for about 50 years because the media jump on it as akin to placing all grandparents in indentured servitude. Tax has been made to be a burden at best and a punishment at worse when the counter argument is it is the contribution many (perhaps not as many as some would like) make to the continuance of a civilised society.

    Yet we use terms like "wage slave" as though we have exchanged one form of servitude for another.

    The second statement is also true if you believe the Lafferites. There is a sound theory if you allow more people to keep more of their money they spend it or work harder thus generating more money for the Exchequer via VAT receipts or income tax. It also has the by product of making the rich richer and the "belief" is some of that largesse "trickles down" to the poor making them richer too.

    What we are seeing however is those with money choosing to save in ISAs rather than undergoing retail therapy (did I see £11.5 billion invested in ISAs before the April 2024 deadline?). Saving is good, too much saving (especially if that means less consumption) isn't.

    The usual response to shrinking receipts (apart from that ointment) is to reduce expenditure so if the tax take falls the spending cake gets reduced as well. That's the other side of the question - there's more of a certainty about the take from increased taxes (even more if we had Land Value Taxation) than the impact of a tax cut in terms of whether the Lafferite model would recover the receipts lost from the lower rates.

    In any case, "reducing the State" never goes out of fashion (unless it's a part of the State that's important to you such as the NHS or schools or social care or the armed forces or the local library).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    And in my experience they are usually thicke than that and you need an industrial suction pump too
    Sounds like you've had some strange experiences on Only Fans...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    carnforth said:

    Lawmakers can't be lawbreakers latest:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4nn23kz2meo

    I think fining people for doing 73mph on a motorway is harsh, even if the limit was temporarily reduced to 60mph.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    Also the Russians probably know who and where you are if you're using it so close to the front.
    Although they might get muddled and think it's @Byronic, or @Eadric, or @LadyG...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2024
    eek said:

    It must do

    Which is why when I say there is no money and I expect taxes to increase and a wealth tax is unavoidable, it's unavoidable because the Government needs money.
    Lads' Army Tax
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    edited June 2024

    I think fining people for doing 73mph on a motorway is harsh, even if the limit was temporarily reduced to 60mph.
    Yeah. I often catch myself doing 35 in a 30, 70 in a reduced 60 etc, and have to tap the brake. Probably just lucky I haven't been caught.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    I think fining people for doing 73mph on a motorway is harsh, even if the limit was temporarily reduced to 60mph.
    To be quite honest, if it was one of their stupid smart limits since nobody obeys them (due to them usually being put up for no reason) that would be harsh.

    If it's roadworks then it's a fair cop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    carnforth said:

    Lawmakers can't be lawbreakers latest:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4nn23kz2meo

    Technically MPs can as long as they avoid a prison sentence of a year or more or a prison sentence (even suspended) of any length which triggers a recall petition if that petition is successful
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Lads' Army Tax
    Private Pike Tax.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Sandpit said:

    I wonder what the economics looks like of hiring (importing) maybe a couple of thousand MRI operators, and a couple of thousand lab technicians, to offer a 24/7 walk-in MRI and blood panel service to anyone currently awaiting a consultant’s appointment?

    It could potentially make a big difference to overall treatment time, as well as the waiting list, if the consultant has everything available to them in advance of the first consultation with the patient. The copy sent to the GP might even spot something else at the same time.

    When the waiting list clears, offer the same service to anyone over 60, 50, 40, as a screener for all sorts of things that cost the NHS a fortune and have poor outcomes when spotted late.
    One suggestion has been to buy up spare space in the private sector for MRI and similar. Since, in this case , the machines and technicians are 100% private usually.
  • Roger said:

    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    You could argue that the best people are poor conservatives and rich socialists, both voting for the good of the country and against their own self-interest. Conversely, the worst people would then be the poor socialists and the rich conservatives:

    Poor socialists: envious slackers
    Poor conservatives: hard-working strivers
    Rich socialists: benevolent philanthropists
    Rich conservatives: evil scrooges
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    He has merely presented a truth which is why Labour supporters are getting so upset, ergo that Labour loves to raise tax, and raise it they will. If anyone really believes that Labour will find efficiencies in the system (guffaw) to meet their spending wetdreams, then I have a bridge to sell you.
    You are not supposed to be caught out simply making up and lying about your opponents plans though. That’s just rank bad politics. 🙂

    Which brings me to the presenters stupid stunt. They can both easily rule out top rates moving, rishi has proven you can bring in billions through fiscal drag and other stealth taxes, and keep the election promise of “not a penny more on”. Not that the Tories kept that promise not a penny more on. Sunak invented a whole new NI half way through parliament to stop NHS properly collapsing.

    What you are missing Nigel is all those headlines about the highest tax take since the war. Both parties know they can make these promises not to raise tax as the system will be taking massively from us anyway, throughout the next parliament.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    eek said:

    It must do

    Which is why when I say there is no money and I expect taxes to increase and a wealth tax is unavoidable, it's unavoidable because the Government needs money.
    As I have said before they can always spend less
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    Does it have a chapter called never take chewing gum from a mohel ?
    I've got some good mohel jokes if you like but it's not a joke book!

    Guy goes into a shop and says 'can I have a pound of potatoes please''

    'I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes'

    'Well why have you got them in your window!'

    ''I'm a mohel. What do you want me to have in my window?'
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,275
    eek said:

    It must do

    Which is why when I say there is no money and I expect taxes to increase and a wealth tax is unavoidable, it's unavoidable because the Government needs money.
    What odds VAT at 22.5%? I know it’s the one all the parties hate raising but Osborne did it using the “we checked the accounts and it’s worse than we thought” excuse in 2010 and it undoubtedly nets the government lots of cash.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    stodge said:

    Both statements are true and false (see, that's a good, centrist answer, I feel so much better).

    It is impossible to talk about raising taxes and has been for about 50 years because the media jump on it as akin to placing all grandparents in indentured servitude. Tax has been made to be a burden at best and a punishment at worse when the counter argument is it is the contribution many (perhaps not as many as some would like) make to the continuance of a civilised society.

    Yet we use terms like "wage slave" as though we have exchanged one form of servitude for another.

    The second statement is also true if you believe the Lafferites. There is a sound theory if you allow more people to keep more of their money they spend it or work harder thus generating more money for the Exchequer via VAT receipts or income tax. It also has the by product of making the rich richer and the "belief" is some of that largesse "trickles down" to the poor making them richer too.

    What we are seeing however is those with money choosing to save in ISAs rather than undergoing retail therapy (did I see £11.5 billion invested in ISAs before the April 2024 deadline?). Saving is good, too much saving (especially if that means less consumption) isn't.

    The usual response to shrinking receipts (apart from that ointment) is to reduce expenditure so if the tax take falls the spending cake gets reduced as well. That's the other side of the question - there's more of a certainty about the take from increased taxes (even more if we had Land Value Taxation) than the impact of a tax cut in terms of whether the Lafferite model would recover the receipts lost from the lower rates.

    In any case, "reducing the State" never goes out of fashion (unless it's a part of the State that's important to you such as the NHS or schools or social care or the armed forces or the local library).
    OTOH some of the saving is because folk are worried about the willingness of the State to look after them in their old age, even if that is solely the NHS.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    Conwy cc have written to us to say our postal ballots will be sent on the 19th June
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2024

    He was a great constituency MP (mine).

    Then his seat was abolished for this election and he almost immediately gave up entirely. Showing he has no sense of duty; he was only ever doing it out of political cynicism.

    Unimpressed to put it mildly.
    He is also taking a risk, the Basildon part of the Basildon and Billericay seat was Labour in the Blair years and Teresa Gorman only held Billericay narrowly in 1997.

    Labour could win it on current polls, especially if a big Reform vote and LD tactical voting. The only truly safe seats in Essex at the moment even on a worst case scenario are Maldon, Rayleigh and Wickford, Witham and Brentwood and Ongar (and probably Essex NW and Epping Forest)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131

    What odds VAT at 22.5%? I know it’s the one all the parties hate raising but Osborne did it using the “we checked the accounts and it’s worse than we thought” excuse in 2010 and it undoubtedly nets the government lots of cash.
    That would be an absolute killer for hospitality businesses which are still struggling since COVID.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    ydoethur said:

    To be quite honest, if it was one of their stupid smart limits since nobody obeys them (due to them usually being put up for no reason) that would be harsh.

    If it's roadworks then it's a fair cop.
    Why wasn't Vicky Pryce driving ? What is Ed Davey hiding ?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537

    As I have said before they can always spend less
    Where do you cut spending - go ahead provide areas and examples?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,430

    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,137
    edited June 2024
    I was a Tory member for a very short time, but they still send me emails even though I haven't been one for quite a while. Don't know whether this is deliberate or not.

    Just got this from Richard Holden:


    "I'm just following up on Rishi's email to you below by bringing you the BREAKING NEWS that, according to a snap poll, Rishi Sunak beat Sir Keir Starmer among people who watched the debate.

    How did we know this was going to happen? Because only Rishi Sunak has the track record of delivery, and the bold ideas needed for a brighter future.

    And it's a lot easier to stand up your ideas when you actually have a plan.

    If you missed the debate you can see the best bits here >>>

    Thank you to the thousands of you who shared our content at home, and who've chipped in £10, £5, even £1 during the course of the campaign.

    Trust me when I say that everything you do really does make a difference.

    Together, we're going to keep Sir Keir Starmer out of 10 Downing Street. And deliver the bold action needed for a brighter future.

    Yours sincerely,
    Richard Holden
    Chairman of the Conservative and Unionist Party""
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,869

    LOL so that's Starmer also taxing £3000 as he's not changing anything.

    Question now is does the £2000 fall on top of the £3000 ?
    This forum is like a kindergarten.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Do British voters support or oppose Rishi Sunak's plan to increase the income tax threshold at which pensioners will start paying income tax? (28-29 May)

    Support 49%
    Oppose 17%
    Neither 26%
    Don't know 9%…..

    Influence of Sunak's Pension Tax Plan (28-29 May):

    More voters aged 55-64 (20%) and 65+ (25%) say they are now MORE LIKELY to vote Conservative than say they are less likely to do so (6% and 15%).

    Among 18-24 year olds, 37% say they are now LESS LIKELY to vote Conservative


    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798341594787066216

    Since a negligible number of 18-24 year olds were going to vote Con in the first place….

    This hits the nail on the head. How polling like that hides the truth of what voters are really thinking.

    Corbyn’s crap manifesto also benefitted from voodoo polling like this on each particular measure, but it pointed to nothing substantial.

    Ask exactly the same voters you polled to get that result, you aware Rishi turned this tax on you pension on, this merely a proposal to turn it off again? and you will find voters are not that unaware and gullible. Hence the current polls and eventual result.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2024

    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    Its the same with pensions. We want as many people putting their money in their pensions.

    Instead I think its nailed on we will get a counterproductive raid on pensions.
  • First crewed Boeing Starliner launch in about 30 minutes.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    eek said:

    Where do you cut spending - go ahead provide areas and examples?
    Well you have to start by looking.

    Cut quangos £82billion to go at. Id abolish the OBr day one.
    Reschedule Payments to the bank of England
    Sort out MoD procurement
    Take an IT spend holiday - they're always vastly overrun for dubious benefits
    Put some productivity back in to the public sector instead of pissing away 2% per year

    I could continue but as I say if you wont look you wont find.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Japan has apparently been suffering from a similar thing. Western influencer going there, deliberately being dicks to cause reacts from Japanese public who aren't used to this, all for the clicks.
    Yes, it’s a massive culture clash, and relatively libertarian authorities that don’t understand how to respond.

    Funnily enough, we’ve not seen that sort of prank out here in the Gulf. ;) I wonder why?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    boulay said:

    Re your first paragraph, has anyone actually done any digging on this? There seems to be a generally accepted opinion that someone of the harder right is going to be next Tory leader but is that based on facts?

    For example if you took various seat levels for the Tories, looked at who would be left are we certain that they are majority to the right? As far as I know (and I know nothing, about anything) it could actually be that there would be a much greater number of one nation centrists who might be able to lock out the last two candidates from their wing.

    Just because the remaining seats would by definition be stronger Tory seats it doesn’t necessarily follow that their MPs are further to the right.

    If there ended up 160 Tories and 120 were one nation then they could ensure one of their tribe takes over. The same is true of course for the result being the other way. Like I said, unless someone has really delved into this we are just speculating.
    There’s not a doubt it will be Patel v Badenoch in the final. What is interesting is what wedge issues they will find to fight each other on.

    If a moderate Tory wants to say xx moderate Tory will make final as normally happens, that’s just wish casting this time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Carnyx said:

    Private Pike Tax.
    Don't tell em tax?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    As I predicted Sky have now expanded the conservative tax controversy to Labours misleading assertions on the conservatives plans for NI calling them dodgy dossiers
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    edited June 2024

    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I worked with a team of about thirty or forty freelancers. My English producer thought it necessary on the basis that if I wasn't there the job couldn't happen and it was loads of money out of the window. I thought it unnecessary but he was in charge of that side of things.
  • New Market up on BF Exchange

    Number of Tories to Defect to Reform https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/multi-market?marketIds=1.229664621





  • eekeek Posts: 29,537
    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, it’s a massive culture clash, and relatively libertarian authorities that don’t understand how to respond.

    Funnily enough, we’ve not seen that sort of prank out here in the Gulf. ;) I wonder why?
    To be honest, I am surprised one of the knobheads haven't managed to piss off somebody connected to the Yakuza, because that wouldn't end well.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Andy_JS said:

    I was a Tory member for a very short time, but they still send me emails even though I haven't been one for quite a while. Don't know whether this is deliberate or not.

    Just got this from Richard Holden:


    "I'm just following up on Rishi's email to you below by bringing you the BREAKING NEWS that, according to a snap poll, Rishi Sunak beat Sir Keir Starmer among people who watched the debate.

    How did we know this was going to happen? Because only Rishi Sunak has the track record of delivery, and the bold ideas needed for a brighter future.

    And it's a lot easier to stand up your ideas when you actually have a plan.

    If you missed the debate you can see the best bits here >>>

    Thank you to the thousands of you who shared our content at home, and who've chipped in £10, £5, even £1 during the course of the campaign.

    Trust me when I say that everything you do really does make a difference.

    Together, we're going to keep Sir Keir Starmer out of 10 Downing Street. And deliver the bold action needed for a brighter future.

    Yours sincerely,
    Richard Holden
    Chairman of the Conservative and Unionist Party""

    I sent them a "take me off your list, GDPR blah blah blah" email a year or two ago and that seemed to work.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    eek said:

    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    As I predicted Sky have now expanded the conservative tax controversy to Labours misleading assertions on the conservatives plans for NI calling them dodgy dossiers

    The fun is this has kicked off the debate on the economy. The more Labour protest the more they will be asked to set out what there plans are, something they have avoided to date. Sunak has little to lose in this as he's already on the rack Starmer might actually have to face some scrutiny now.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2024
    As an aside it's just come to my attention via yet another phone being stolen from a friend that Apple has largely solved the main incentive behind phone theft.

    Anyone with apple needs to (a) make sure they have biometrics for their banking devices, and (b) turn on stolen device protection in settings.

    Essentially what it does is lock apps that need biometrics away from being pin accessed (e.g. passwords, resetting password for apple, banking apps) when away from home or work. This means that when someone shoulder surfs your pin and then steals the phone they are unable to access the most crucial bits of it. They can't just use your pin to reset apple ID password, then use that to add their face and access everything. Last year I know someone who they managed to get a five figure sum from (eventually reclaimed from banks) using this method (additional loans, cash in bank, overdrafts, card details on the app), now it's immediately just worth the sum of its' parts rather than enabling access to everything.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    " formal disclosure of non human intelligence interacting with earth." Are you still persisting with this rubbish? There is nothing, NOTHING in what has come out in the last 18 months beyond the usual rubbish from MJ-12, Bluebook, Grudge etc. Its a collection of grifters grifting, telling the same old hackneyed stories and gulling in the gullable. Watch an episode of Skinwalker Ranch and you will realise the idiots that are behind all this.
    Perhaps you are right. But it doesn’t easily explain why gang of 8 members from both parties have been pushing hard for legislation that legally defines technology of non-human origin and seeks eminent domain over it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Sandpit said:

    Which is why the State needs to prosecute this as an aggravated assault, because there’s now thousands of these “influencers” who think its okay to assault someone for publicity. She should be remanded in custody and expect six months, and Nigel should be free to set his lawyers on her for civil damages.
    As expected, she has now got her own 'milkshake campaign' to attract new customers to her porn site, according to the Mail.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13496395/victoria-thomas-bowen-onlyfans-milkshake-nigel-farage.html

    P.S. The headline is ironic: how about National newspaper shamelessly publishes pictures of porn star to attract visitors to its own site
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    I'm sorry it's just the cost of employing someone - Employer NI just means that the headline figure being advertised isn't the true cost of employing them...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    The fun is this has kicked off the debate on the economy. The more Labour protest the more they will be asked to set out what there plans are, something they have avoided to date. Sunak has little to lose in this as he's already on the rack Starmer might actually have to face some scrutiny now.
    No. This only works like 1992, one party is going to raise your tax, they other won’t. If it cancels each other out it leaves Labours 20% lead un scratched.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    Sandpit said:

    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Nelson has long since done with the Tories.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.
    Indeed, and small business owners have almost no political voice - mostly because they spend all of their time running their businesses.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537
    edited June 2024

    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.
    No it doesn't - it's just that the headline salary of £30,000 isn't the actual cost of employing someone it's £34,000 or so.

    I really don't see how it makes it a harder decision, anyone in business will know that the true cost of hiring someone is way more than the headline advertised salary...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    They could also just actually fine large companies that are breaking multiple laws. That would be an enormous windfall tax on utility companies that would be much more difficult for them to whinge about.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    French taking no chances:

    https://x.com/jeromestarkey/status/1798344639948415187

    Video: British paras jumping into Normandy are greeted by French customs
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2024

    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed, and small business owners have almost no political voice - mostly because they spend all of their time running their businesses.
    Yes. This is the tricky thing. When you are really small business a lot of the work day is either directly swapping money for time or out there wheeling / dealing for the new business / firefighting to keep the business running.

    Large businesses, there is no direct operations. Its strategy, including lobbying governments (directly / indirectly).
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Richard Tice was interviewed by Andrew Neil on Times Radio saying that the target for Reform is millions and millions of votes. UKIP got 3,881,099 votes in GE15, does anyone think that Reform UK will beat that in GE24?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    eek said:

    I'm sorry it's just the cost of employing someone - Employer NI just means that the headline figure being advertised isn't the true cost of employing them...
    All things being equal, increasing employers NI should increase the incentive to invest in technology to increase productivity, by making labour more expensive.

    That's what we all want isn't it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Chameleon said:

    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660

    No. This only works like 1992, one party is going to raise your tax, they other won’t. If it cancels each other out it leaves Labours 20% lead un scratched.
    Yes, and the more they have score draw rows over tax the more people are thinking about tax. About how much tax people are having to pay these days. Which doesn't much help the Tories.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    You are not supposed to be caught out simply making up and lying about your opponents plans though. That’s just rank bad politics. 🙂

    Which brings me to the presenters stupid stunt. They can both easily rule out top rates moving, rishi has proven you can bring in billions through fiscal drag and other stealth taxes, and keep the election promise of “not a penny more on”. Not that the Tories kept that promise not a penny more on. Sunak invented a whole new NI half way through parliament to stop NHS properly collapsing.

    What you are missing Nigel is all those headlines about the highest tax take since the war. Both parties know they can make these promises not to raise tax as the system will be taking massively from us anyway, throughout the next parliament.
    What I think you both miss is the number of factors that go into deciding which way you vote (or anything else for that matter) The best thing I read from an advertising guru was that people build opinions like birds build nests. Lots of small things put together over a period of time and after they're in place they are extremely difficult to shift. So if a newspaper prints a series of stories which contradicts your thinking you're far mire likely to change your paper than your mind
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    All things being equal, increasing employers NI should increase the incentive to invest in technology to increase productivity, by making labour more expensive.

    That's what we all want isn't it?
    Yes, but there needs to be a lot more carrot and a lot less stick.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    If only the technology existed to allow people to watch the debate at some later time of their choosing!
    Well I'll record it, but a big part of the fun of live TV is the instant responses on social media etc.
This discussion has been closed.