It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
Well credit to Farage, he has at least injected a bit of excitement in an otherwise dull election.
This is not a dull election. Numerically, you can argue for the Tories getting 35 seats (losing 90% of their seats) and getting 250+ seats. That is extraordinary. Politically it may spell a turning point in a Tory saga running since the Corn Laws. We could lose a generation of household names. Scotland could turn mostly unionist. The LDs could be back with a lot of seats. The Farage effect is unknown. The party that will win is saying nothing at all about its plans. it's all an unknown. It's an amazing election, and politically could be the most far reaching since 1945.
(NB and a party winning no seats, Reform, could destroy a party currently holding 350. Dull???)
Although you could argue that is the result of changes which happened 2-3 years ago. And that this is a dull election which merely confirmed an already existing settled view.
I agree there is no doubt which party will lead the next government, but even on that score, this actual change happened last in 1997,1974 and 1964. It doesn't happen all the time. Both on the detailed outcome on 4th July and the consequences, short medium and long term, there is huge uncertainty and great fascination. Dull this is not.
Dull only if very broad outcome uncertainty is the sole point of interest. Not for nerds like us it ain't.
And for non nerds big changes are the only times they pay attention. So I don't buy the boring line.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
The Conservatives don't want to follow the US Republican example of turning politics into a pissing contest.
But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing words, while as you say, funding your opponents to challenge you, and expecting to lose in court.
British Conservatives fundamentally don't have much confidence.
My theory is that it's sort of bound up in a quasi-class guilt thing.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
Deltapoll Con 25% (+2) Lab 48% (+3) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 9% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 4% (-2) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 31st May - 3rd June 2024 Sample: 1,077 GB adults (Changes from 23rd-25th May 2024)
Merciless, and expected, squeeze of the Green vote.
Deltapoll had the Tories behind by only 14pp in January, 29-43, and again in March, 27-41, but they also had a 23pp lead in March too, 23-46, so their polls are quite volatile.
It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.
Voters didn’t, in the main, care that much about Brexit being done, or not done. They did care, considerably, that politicians were spending all their time obsessing about how to get out of the Brexit mess, and hardly time addressing the parlous and deteriorating state of the country. The attraction of the clown promising to get it done was in the hope that our leaders would then focus on all the other things urgently needing their attention, the improving of many of which they had previously promised.
Several years later, Brexit may be done (debateable, and all it’s really done is harm), but all the other things that people very much wanted our politicians to attend to remain completely undone. QED.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
Hmm. Sixty-two of the Tories' 140 seats are held by under 5% (49 from Labour, 10 from LDs, 2 from SNP, and 1 from both LDs and Labour in a 3-way).
If, for example, they lose 3% more to Reform in those seats, they're vulnerable to 1% further squeeze/swing that'd take them down to as low as 78 seats (77 if they lose Clacton to Reform).
Whilst Labour could rise as high as 472, and Lib Dems as high as 59. Converseley, the Tories could get up to 187 while pushing Labour down to 385 and Lib Dems down to 37 by clawing back those seats they lose to those two by under 5%
The campaign in those seats, and how Reform develops, is crucial.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I think you can have a radical right movement that is actually pretty socially liberal in many respects.
Think of the colour-blind and male/female equality of the fascism depicted in the film Starship Troopers.
Or more terrestrially, think Pim Fortuyn ot Geert Wilders.
Liberal except in so far as they look at some people and want them expelled from society.
How would you reconcile the liberal doctrine of being intolerant of intolerance with multiculturalism?
Deltapoll Con 25% (+2) Lab 48% (+3) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 9% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 4% (-2) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 31st May - 3rd June 2024 Sample: 1,077 GB adults (Changes from 23rd-25th May 2024)
Broken, sleazy Reform, SNP, and Greens on the slide!
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
Well so they should do that. It's insane to do otherwise under FPP.
It’s called ganging up on one rather than fighting each other.
Imagining it was you in jelly wrestling with two others and they ganged up on you to pull your bra and panties off and throw them into a raucous crowd. That’s this, that is!
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
The Conservatives don't want to follow the US Republican example of turning politics into a pissing contest.
But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing words, while as you say, funding your opponents to challenge you, and expecting to lose in court.
British Conservatives fundamentally don't have much confidence.
My theory is that it's sort of bound up in a quasi-class guilt thing.
The Americans don't have that.
You’re bang on. Hence Cameron and Boris, surrounded by London liberals and terrified of appearing a bit Fash and therefore being ostracized, so even when they are voted in by right wingers (esp Boris) they then do very left wing things to make up for it (migration)
It’s the problem with having the entire political class based in a left liberal world city: London
Most Republicans do not live in NYC or LA and do not give a F what their respective citizens say
I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.
Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.
That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
The only caveat I would put on that is that if people start to think Reform are a viable vote there may be certain seats which are more vulnerable to them than others. It’s hard for Baxter’s model to adapt to them, because the Brexit Party didn’t stand in a number of constituencies last time.
But FPTP is a cruel mistress and you are right they’d have to get some significant national attention and focus on certain seats to be guaranteed of a good haul. LD/Con/Lab have had the benefit of many elections and proper resourcing to understand seat targeting. Reform don’t have anything like that infrastructure.
Reform’s problem is that there is next to no-one who would vote for them tactically to keep the Tories out.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.
Voters didn’t, in the main, care that much about Brexit being done, or not done. They did care, considerably, that politicians were spending all their time obsessing about how to get out of the Brexit mess, and hardly time addressing the parlous and deteriorating state of the country. The attraction of the clown promising to get it done was in the hope that our leaders would then focus on all the other things urgently needing their attention, the improving of many of which they had previously promised.
Several years later, Brexit may be done (debateable, and all it’s really done is harm), but all the other things that people very much wanted our politicians to attend to remain completely undone. QED.
Incumbent governments everywhere have suffered because of covid. Perhaps we are looking too much at domestic narratives and forgetting the big picture.
Deltapoll has both the big two gaining and Labour at the higher end of their polling this year.
They gave Tories 27% on May 13th, 26 on May 7th. 23% the last two times since. More a glass half empty than glass half full poll if clearly lower than they were earlier in May after the locals. 😕
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
Are they accountants ? Civil Servants who WHH ?
Wank heavily hourly?
That must mean personal productivity is very high.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
Are they accountants ? Civil Servants who WHH ?
Wank heavily hourly?
That must mean personal productivity is very high.
Yes, but they must be drained by the end of the day.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I think you can have a radical right movement that is actually pretty socially liberal in many respects.
Think of the colour-blind and male/female equality of the fascism depicted in the film Starship Troopers.
Or more terrestrially, think Pim Fortuyn ot Geert Wilders.
Liberal except in so far as they look at some people and want them expelled from society.
How would you reconcile the liberal doctrine of being intolerant of intolerance with multiculturalism?
Create separate railway carriages for women. Liberally.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
She was relatively close to being outflanked on her right by Zemmour in 2022 - he led her in some polls about six weeks before the election, but fell away in the campaign as people looked more closely at him.
It's slightly arguable if he was to her right in the sense he was trying to sell himself both as more authentically right wing (referring to her as "that left wing woman" etc) and more able to unite the far right with the conservative right. But she was actually relatively happy to cast him in that way, and it probably helped her in the second round to have someone well known whom she could point at and say was less moderate than her.
Deltapoll Con 25% (+2) Lab 48% (+3) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 9% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 4% (-2) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 31st May - 3rd June 2024 Sample: 1,077 GB adults (Changes from 23rd-25th May 2024)
Broken, sleazy Reform, SNP, and Greens on the slide!
LLG +2% net, RefCon +1% net, the losers being SNP and "the rounding party"
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
Well so they should do that. It's insane to do otherwise under FPP.
It’s called ganging up on one rather than fighting each other.
Imagining it was you in jelly wrestling with two others and they ganged up on you to pull your bra and panties off and throw them into a raucous crowd. That’s this, that is!
Looks like we headed to a Tory split after the election as the party tears itself apart deciding whether to unite the right under Farage or not.
If Starmer fails to deliver in five years (quite possible given the scale of the mess and the desperate finances) we could see Farage swept into power on a right-nationalist-populist wave in the same way as some eu countries are falling.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I think you can have a radical right movement that is actually pretty socially liberal in many respects.
Think of the colour-blind and male/female equality of the fascism depicted in the film Starship Troopers.
Or more terrestrially, think Pim Fortuyn ot Geert Wilders.
Liberal except in so far as they look at some people and want them expelled from society.
How would you reconcile the liberal doctrine of being intolerant of intolerance with multiculturalism?
Create separate railway carriages for women. Liberally.
Used to have them (well, compartments) in the UK. When there was not a hint of multiculturalism and the equivalents of our right wingers on PB spent their time denouncing Papal Aggression and the abolition of the tithes of the Church of Ireland.
Just to clarify as someone mentioned Woking. The prediction there is LD 45, Con 24
On the LDs there at 11/8
Theft. You should donate the winnings to charity!
Wish I'd put more on, Peter!
I will be very happy, for the possibly the first time ever, if the LDs clinch Epsom.
@Casino_Royale for what it is worth, as a local, I think your bet on Woking is good. I think it is going very well for the LDs there. I really don't expect them to take Epsom. I know it has been predicted recently, but if it happens I will be gobsmacked. I am obviously hoping to be wrong and you make a killing.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Looks like some 'creative' reporting. Rayner it turns out commits to Trident but wants disarmament which is still a split from what SKS said but a much lesser one
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
Well so they should do that. It's insane to do otherwise under FPP.
It’s called ganging up on one rather than fighting each other.
Imagining it was you in jelly wrestling with two others and they ganged up on you to pull your bra and panties off and throw them into a raucous crowd. That’s this, that is!
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
'You older folk' lol
I'd always assumed Heathener to be in the older half of posters here!
I think absent context clues - like getting one's info from TikTok or a paper copy of the Financial Times - it is very hard to glean poster age from political view or style.
Despite general trends we all know some aged radical lefties or young dinosaur conservatives. And I do not think my use of language has altered that much as I've aged either.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
I don't think the revolt will really be about multiculturalism. A governing party could just start saying something like "no more asylum seekers, we're not following the international laws any more"... and then they will stop coming, and that will be the end of that.
The problem is that all parties are too committed to the current system... which has no answer to problems like this (asylum seekers) and no way of finding an answer to it. All labour are going to do is go around the same circuits that the conservatives have run around for the past decade.
It is like a 'paradigm shift'. The answer is unthinkable and absurd until it suddenly becomes obvious.
People think Donald Trump's political style is absurd, but to me it is rational.
ACP-UK commends and strongly supports the Review and its recommendations. We congratulate Dr Cass and her team on a truly impressive and comprehensive body of work, conducted and completed in the most hostile, fractious and challenging of circumstances.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
Well so they should do that. It's insane to do otherwise under FPP.
It’s called ganging up on one rather than fighting each other.
Imagining it was you in jelly wrestling with two others and they ganged up on you to pull your bra and panties off and throw them into a raucous crowd. That’s this, that is!
I don’t know why you are laughing at that!
I’m logging out now.
So unfair, those types who don't pay due respect to your fashion statements.
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
Doesn't really need deals as such, just two groups understanding their duty. One of th reasons 2019 went the way it did was the wasteful Lib-Lab battles.
Years ago, when Boris was still flying (low, but flying) I mused on Lib and Lab operatives meeting in a dingy pub and accidentally losing copies of their target sheet list. (It's so hard to keep track of bits of paper).
But that wasn't strictly necessary- in most battleground seats, it's damn obvious who can win and who can't. That's a bit overtaken by events- I can't imagine that St Neots, Huntingdon or Ely were on anyone's target list until quite recently. But if you want to vote against the govt, I recommend this heuristic.
Check whether you can open your door, or whether it's blocked by a billion LibDem leaflets. If you can open your door, Labour are the main challengers, if not it's the Lib Dems.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
She was relatively close to being outflanked on her right by Zemmour in 2022 - he led her in some polls about six weeks before the election, but fell away in the campaign as people looked more closely at him.
It's slightly arguable if he was to her right in the sense he was trying to sell himself both as more authentically right wing (referring to her as "that left wing woman" etc) and more able to unite the far right with the conservative right. But she was actually relatively happy to cast him in that way, and it probably helped her in the second round to have someone well known whom she could point at and say was less moderate than her.
She is simply a much more presentable, charismatic, "likeable" populist than Zemmour was ever going to be. That's why I expect she will probably win the next presidential election. Hard to know how she would govern. There are some pretty unsavoury characters in her party but overall it seems closer to our Reform party than say the AfD in the fash stakes.
My biggest fear with Le Pen has been Russian influence (as it is with Farage too - that's where the Tories should focus their attacks), but she seems to have distanced herself from that a bit recently possibly influenced by Meloni.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Looks like some 'creative' reporting. Rayner it turns out commits to Trident but wants disarmament which is still a split from what SKS said but a much lesser one
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
I don't think the revolt will really be about multiculturalism. A governing party could just start saying something like "no more asylum seekers, we're not following the international laws any more"... and then they will stop coming, and that will be the end of that.
The problem is that all parties are too committed to the current system... which has no answer to problems like this (asylum seekers) and no way of finding an answer to it. All labour are going to do is go around the same circuits that the conservatives have run around for the past decade.
It is like a 'paradigm shift'. The answer is unthinkable and absurd until it suddenly becomes obvious.
People think Donald Trump's political style is absurd, but to me it is rational.
His style is remarkably effective, at least in securing personal control of a political party and intense base support. It's absurd in the sense of how crude and rude it is regardless of effect.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
So if anything happens Sir Shifty she wont press the button.
Not necessarily.
You could perfectly easily be against renewing Trident but willing to use it in extremis (e.g. you don't think it is worth the money). Equally, I'm certain there are people who voted for renewal who'd never press the button (e.g. want it in order to be able to bluff, but wouldn't do it if that bluff were called).
Just to clarify as someone mentioned Woking. The prediction there is LD 45, Con 24
On the LDs there at 11/8
Theft. You should donate the winnings to charity!
Wish I'd put more on, Peter!
I will be very happy, for the possibly the first time ever, if the LDs clinch Epsom.
Well you won't be the first to have backed a decent winner at Epsom.
Btw, I have followed your posts on Schools and VAT with considerable interest. It is a subject which I think is very important and am pleased to be learning more about the subject from your first hand experiences. My own views are equivocal and uncertain, but I respect yours completely, and of course your sincerity is unquestionable.
I look forward to hearing more, and maybe responding in due course.
Totally overshadowed by Farage etc and totally dropped off the news cycle, but apparently past few days in Ukraine / Russia war, Russia have taken huge losses in hardware and highest daily casualty for a very long time. Also in the report, apparently ~1000 Russians causalities every day for a total of 500k.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
The Conservatives don't want to follow the US Republican example of turning politics into a pissing contest.
But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing words, while as you say, funding your opponents to challenge you, and expecting to lose in court.
British Conservatives fundamentally don't have much confidence.
My theory is that it's sort of bound up in a quasi-class guilt thing.
The Americans don't have that.
You’re bang on. Hence Cameron and Boris, surrounded by London liberals and terrified of appearing a bit Fash and therefore being ostracized, so even when they are voted in by right wingers (esp Boris) they then do very left wing things to make up for it (migration)
It’s the problem with having the entire political class based in a left liberal world city: London
Most Republicans do not live in NYC or LA and do not give a F what their respective citizens say
It happened before Thatcher too. But with economic wetness rather than migration.
The next Conservative leader should have ideally been born in dirt.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
Well so they should do that. It's insane to do otherwise under FPP.
It’s called ganging up on one rather than fighting each other.
Imagining it was you in jelly wrestling with two others and they ganged up on you to pull your bra and panties off and throw them into a raucous crowd. That’s this, that is!
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
Giles Watling from a well known acting family. Played the Reverend in ‘Bread’.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Nonsense - if she rejects Trident renewal against her leader than one of them is in an impossible position
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
After the way that polling support for Sinn Fein has collapsed over the last six months I'd think that Le Pen is vulnerable to someone new better expressing the frustrations of the voters, but the two-stage nature of the election should help her against a challenge from the right.
People who don't follow French politics possibly aren't aware just how weird the Le Pens are as a family. The Addams Family made flesh and translated into French. Marine has tried to present a gloss of normality in recent years but not sure long she can keep hiding multiple relatives in attics.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
The Conservatives don't want to follow the US Republican example of turning politics into a pissing contest.
But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing words, while as you say, funding your opponents to challenge you, and expecting to lose in court.
British Conservatives fundamentally don't have much confidence.
My theory is that it's sort of bound up in a quasi-class guilt thing.
The Americans don't have that.
You’re bang on. Hence Cameron and Boris, surrounded by London liberals and terrified of appearing a bit Fash and therefore being ostracized, so even when they are voted in by right wingers (esp Boris) they then do very left wing things to make up for it (migration)
It’s the problem with having the entire political class based in a left liberal world city: London
Most Republicans do not live in NYC or LA and do not give a F what their respective citizens say
The whole political class in the UK have generally become shit scared of doing anything that might get short term bad headlines with only occasional exceptions.
Totally overshadowed by Farage etc and totally dropped off the news cycle, but apparently past few days in Ukraine / Russia war, Russia have taken huge losses in hardware and highest daily casualty for a very long time. Also in the report, apparently ~1000 Russians causalities every day for a total of 500k.
Just to clarify as someone mentioned Woking. The prediction there is LD 45, Con 24
On the LDs there at 11/8
Theft. You should donate the winnings to charity!
Wish I'd put more on, Peter!
I will be very happy, for the possibly the first time ever, if the LDs clinch Epsom.
@Casino_Royale for what it is worth, as a local, I think your bet on Woking is good. I think it is going very well for the LDs there. I really don't expect them to take Epsom. I know it has been predicted recently, but if it happens I will be gobsmacked. I am obviously hoping to be wrong and you make a killing.
More details off line if you are interested.
That’s my view too. It’s never been fertile territory for the LDs, though perhaps that was the point of Casino’s outside punt.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Nonsense - if she rejects Trident renewal against her leader than one of them is in an impossible position
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
Show me where she has said she doesn't back Trident.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It's certainly noticeable that so many of our PB Tories have told us that they've been finding the campaign dull!
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
You keep raising Wales 20mph zones which the Welsh government itself has changed and frankly is not an issue now
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Nonsense - if she rejects Trident renewal against her leader than one of them is in an impossible position
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
Show me where she has said she doesn't back Trident.
I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.
Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.
That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
The only caveat I would put on that is that if people start to think Reform are a viable vote there may be certain seats which are more vulnerable to them than others. It’s hard for Baxter’s model to adapt to them, because the Brexit Party didn’t stand in a number of constituencies last time.
But FPTP is a cruel mistress and you are right they’d have to get some significant national attention and focus on certain seats to be guaranteed of a good haul. LD/Con/Lab have had the benefit of many elections and proper resourcing to understand seat targeting. Reform don’t have anything like that infrastructure.
Reform’s problem is that there is next to no-one who would vote for them tactically to keep the Tories out.
And even I, as a Never Conservative voter, would vote Tory to keep Reform out. Although thinking about it, in my case that would mean voting for Andrew Bloody Rosindell. As there would be no difference in practice I would sit it out.
Looks like Ukraine have begun to push the Russians back in Northern Kharkiv. That offensive turning out to be a costly disaster for Russia.
The pointless slaughter for a few metres of ground which is then taken back by a counter attack is very world war one and very depressing to see in modern times.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
You keep raising Wales 20mph zones which the Welsh government itself has changed and frankly is not an issue now
THinking of them across the UK. It was such a disaster if you recall. Remember that the Hartlepool Tories had to intervene. Not to mention the Scottish LDs leader - though tbf to him that was in Edinburgh.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It's certainly noticeable that so many of our PB Tories have told us that they've been finding the campaign dull!
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
Labour are home and dry and if today's polls are accurate with a huge majority
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Nonsense - if she rejects Trident renewal against her leader than one of them is in an impossible position
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
Show me where she has said she doesn't back Trident.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Nonsense - if she rejects Trident renewal against her leader than one of them is in an impossible position
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
Show me where she has said she doesn't back Trident.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
The Conservatives don't want to follow the US Republican example of turning politics into a pissing contest.
But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing words, while as you say, funding your opponents to challenge you, and expecting to lose in court.
British Conservatives fundamentally don't have much confidence.
My theory is that it's sort of bound up in a quasi-class guilt thing.
The Americans don't have that.
You’re bang on. Hence Cameron and Boris, surrounded by London liberals and terrified of appearing a bit Fash and therefore being ostracized, so even when they are voted in by right wingers (esp Boris) they then do very left wing things to make up for it (migration)
It’s the problem with having the entire political class based in a left liberal world city: London
Most Republicans do not live in NYC or LA and do not give a F what their respective citizens say
The whole political class in the UK have generally become shit scared of doing anything that might get short term bad headlines with only occasional exceptions.
Which is exactly how we end up with Bland Sir Keir getting his big majority. That said, I’m hoping that SKS is actually going to be a bit less bland than everyone assumes. I think there might be some interesting stuff in the manifesto which will lay the groundwork for some genuine reform.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
You keep raising Wales 20mph zones which the Welsh government itself has changed and frankly is not an issue now
THinking of them across the UK. It was such a disaster if you recall. Remember that the Hartlepool Tories had to intervene. Not to mention the Scottish LDs leader - though tbf to him that was in Edinburgh.
I have no interest in the rest of the UK just Wales where common sense seems to have resolved the issue
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It's certainly noticeable that so many of our PB Tories have told us that they've been finding the campaign dull!
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
Good question. I think turnout is hard to predict. One one view, this is an election where the voters as a whole undoubtedly want a comprehensive clear out of the current ruling class. 20% Tory polling tells its own tale. OTOH there is no clear and decisive alternative which people find compelling in a Blair/Obama like way. On balance I think it points to a fairly high turnout, but not record breaking. not 2001 and not 1950 either.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Nonsense - if she rejects Trident renewal against her leader than one of them is in an impossible position
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
Show me where she has said she doesn't back Trident.
I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.
Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.
That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
The only caveat I would put on that is that if people start to think Reform are a viable vote there may be certain seats which are more vulnerable to them than others. It’s hard for Baxter’s model to adapt to them, because the Brexit Party didn’t stand in a number of constituencies last time.
But FPTP is a cruel mistress and you are right they’d have to get some significant national attention and focus on certain seats to be guaranteed of a good haul. LD/Con/Lab have had the benefit of many elections and proper resourcing to understand seat targeting. Reform don’t have anything like that infrastructure.
Reform’s problem is that there is next to no-one who would vote for them tactically to keep the Tories out.
And even I, as a Never Conservative voter, would vote Tory to keep Reform out. Although thinking about it, in my case that would mean voting for Andrew Bloody Rosindell. As there would be no difference in practice I would sit it out.
My wife and I will vote conservative to keep Reform out and I expect many others will
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
Totally overshadowed by Farage etc and totally dropped off the news cycle, but apparently past few days in Ukraine / Russia war, Russia have taken huge losses in hardware and highest daily casualty for a very long time. Also in the report, apparently ~1000 Russians causalities every day for a total of 500k.
The media seem to have mostly decided that the war in Ukraine is only newsworthy when a Russian missile hits something in Ukraine, or the Russians make any sort of advance.
Ukraine's success in sinking Russian warships or other Ukrainian success, isn't reported on.
Comments
And for non nerds big changes are the only times they pay attention. So I don't buy the boring line.
If not, what else to watch?
My theory is that it's sort of bound up in a quasi-class guilt thing.
The Americans don't have that.
Deltapoll had the Tories behind by only 14pp in January, 29-43, and again in March, 27-41, but they also had a 23pp lead in March too, 23-46, so their polls are quite volatile.
48% for Labour is their highest of the campaign.
Several years later, Brexit may be done (debateable, and all it’s really done is harm), but all the other things that people very much wanted our politicians to attend to remain completely undone. QED.
I will be very happy, for the possibly the first time ever, if the LDs clinch Epsom.
Imagining it was you in jelly wrestling with two others and they ganged up on you to pull your bra and panties off and throw them into a raucous crowd. That’s this, that is!
It’s the problem with having the entire political class based in a left liberal world city: London
Most Republicans do not live in NYC or LA and do not give a F what their respective citizens say
It's slightly arguable if he was to her right in the sense he was trying to sell himself both as more authentically right wing (referring to her as "that left wing woman" etc) and more able to unite the far right with the conservative right. But she was actually relatively happy to cast him in that way, and it probably helped her in the second round to have someone well known whom she could point at and say was less moderate than her.
If Starmer fails to deliver in five years (quite possible given the scale of the mess and the desperate finances) we could see Farage swept into power on a right-nationalist-populist wave in the same way as some eu countries are falling.
What FPTP giveth it can taketh away.
@jamesjohnson252
·
54m
To those texting me asking if Nigel Farage will win Clacton. Yes, Nigel Farage will win Clacton
https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1797668528667193676
More details off line if you are interested.
Rayner it turns out commits to Trident but wants disarmament which is still a split from what SKS said but a much lesser one
Trump shortly to start third term.
Farage about to win the UK GE.
I’m logging out now.
Despite general trends we all know some aged radical lefties or young dinosaur conservatives. And I do not think my use of language has altered that much as I've aged either.
The problem is that all parties are too committed to the current system... which has no answer to problems like this (asylum seekers) and no way of finding an answer to it. All labour are going to do is go around the same circuits that the conservatives have run around for the past decade.
It is like a 'paradigm shift'. The answer is unthinkable and absurd until it suddenly becomes obvious.
People think Donald Trump's political style is absurd, but to me it is rational.
ACP-UK commends and strongly supports the Review and its recommendations. We congratulate Dr Cass and her team on a truly impressive and comprehensive body of work, conducted and completed in the most hostile, fractious and challenging of circumstances.
https://acpuk.org.uk/acp-uk-response-to-the-cass-review
Party Candidate Votes
UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642
Conservative Giles Watling 16,205
Labour Tim Young 6,364
Green Chris Southall 1,184
Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Giles Watling 31,438
Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736
Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541
Green Chris Southall 1,225
Independent Andy Morgan 1,099
Independent Colin Bennett 243
Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
Years ago, when Boris was still flying (low, but flying) I mused on Lib and Lab operatives meeting in a dingy pub and accidentally losing copies of their target sheet list. (It's so hard to keep track of bits of paper).
But that wasn't strictly necessary- in most battleground seats, it's damn obvious who can win and who can't. That's a bit overtaken by events- I can't imagine that St Neots, Huntingdon or Ely were on anyone's target list until quite recently. But if you want to vote against the govt, I recommend this heuristic.
Check whether you can open your door, or whether it's blocked by a billion LibDem leaflets. If you can open your door, Labour are the main challengers, if not it's the Lib Dems.
My biggest fear with Le Pen has been Russian influence (as it is with Farage too - that's where the Tories should focus their attacks), but she seems to have distanced herself from that a bit recently possibly influenced by Meloni.
Different opinions can be held within the same party. Just look at the Tories pre-Johnson.
You could perfectly easily be against renewing Trident but willing to use it in extremis (e.g. you don't think it is worth the money). Equally, I'm certain there are people who voted for renewal who'd never press the button (e.g. want it in order to be able to bluff, but wouldn't do it if that bluff were called).
Btw, I have followed your posts on Schools and VAT with considerable interest. It is a subject which I think is very important and am pleased to be learning more about the subject from your first hand experiences. My own views are equivocal and uncertain, but I respect yours completely, and of course your sincerity is unquestionable.
I look forward to hearing more, and maybe responding in due course.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/03/russia-loses-1200-troops-in-24-hours/
The next Conservative leader should have ideally been born in dirt.
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
https://x.com/men4wes/status/1797642236186038426
https://what3words.com/extinction.level.event
They are wholly unacceptable to my politics
But The Drake could make it work.
Ukraine's success in sinking Russian warships or other Ukrainian success, isn't reported on.