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A tale of two seats: Maidstone and Macclesfield – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    Roger said:

    There is no evidence that Farage helped the Vote Leave campaign. It depends how far back you want to go. It could certainly be argued that he and his party's success put pressure on Cameron to hold the referendum but none that he personally affected the result. The Referendum was won by Cummings and Johnson and the insipidity of Corbyn and Cameron. Farage played no useful part after the referendum was called.
    Not convinced; I reckon Cummings and Farage needed each other. The existence of the Farage campaign allowed the Johnson/Gove/Cummings campaign a bit of plausible deniablilty- they could make a more civilised case of leaving without dirtying their hands with the more outrageous stuff. After all, all the votes ended up in the same pile.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Selebian said:

    Must be sole destroying for him.

    (I apologise in advance for possibly treading the pathway for a stampede of shoe-related puns. By all means tell me to 'shoo')
    Why would we be snobbish about people posting cobblers?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,600
    EPG said:

    Or perhaps a Newcastle-based candidate with Orange Order connections who cries at the end.
    Point of pedantry: Gazza is from Gateshead, not Newcastle.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    rkrkrk said:

    One thing about this election is that the CVs of the leaders and chancellors are much more impressive than previously.

    When Dave & George faced off against Ed and Ed 2 years ago... they basically had very little to no work experience outside politics between them...

    Whatever you think of their politics - Starmer, Sunak, Reeves and Hunt have had previous careers outside politics.

    Starmer? Yes.
    Sunak? Hmmm. Pretty narrow fund management stuff.
    Hunt? Yes.
    Reeves? Five minutes in the BoE and then some retail banking. So, sort of, but nothing massively impressive.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    Eabhal said:

    These minority interest groups get more interesting when attempts are made to build bridges between them. For example, I am very active in active travel and hiking/climbing groups. Both groups have large crossovers to LGBT, pro-Palestine, drug using communities, and it's often assumed that I would be interested in those too.

    I'm sympathetic to their needs and objectives, but begrudge that assumption and get very irritated when I see Palestine flags all over the place when I'm trying to solve a problem like dooring, or trying to work out if a particular carabiner is incompatible with a belay device.
    Eabhal said:

    These minority interest groups get more interesting when attempts are made to build bridges between them. For example, I am very active in active travel and hiking/climbing groups. Both groups have large crossovers to LGBT, pro-Palestine, drug using communities, and it's often assumed that I would be interested in those too.

    I'm sympathetic to their needs and objectives, but begrudge that assumption and get very irritated when I see Palestine flags all over the place when I'm trying to solve a problem like dooring, or trying to work out if a particular carabiner is incompatible with a belay device.
    I like climbing. But I find it weirdly fixated on identity politics. Both indoor climbing centres I frequent have LGBTQ+ nights. One of them runs a 'free climbing for ethnic minorities' scheme (no idea how this is policed, but I can imagine it could lead to some quite awkward conversations.) One of them has the trans flag everywhere. I don't see why there should be a link.
    Maybe outdoor climbing is different - I don't know.

    My Dad tells me however that back in the 1960s there was quite a big crossover between hiking, climbing, folk music and left wing politics. So it's not a new thing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    Can I change my entry for biggest Tory vote drop. Clearly going to be Clacton now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Roger said:

    There is no evidence that Farage helped the Vote Leave campaign. It depends how far back you want to go. It could certainly be argued that he and his party's success put pressure on Cameron to hold the referendum but none that he personally affected the result. The Referendum was won by Cummings and Johnson and the insipidity of Corbyn and Cameron. Farage played no useful part after the referendum was called.
    This would actually be a valid intervention if you weren’t notoriously the dumbest commenter on politicalbetting in the entire history of its existence

    So while I have some sympathy with the view Farage was less important once the vote was called, as it’s you saying it I am reduced to helpless laughter, with an edge of cruel mockery. Which is a shame
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    edited June 2024

    Another example of the ‘Lifelong Labour Voter’ being easily triggered by a tease of his purported opponents.

    Funny old world.
    Ha ha, you voted Green in the last election you bampot :lol:

    Go and have a lie down and think of a chip n pin machine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    sarissa said:

    Wait a minute - that area was over-run by the Wermacht in WWII - is it war booty? Not Hitler obviously as he didn't drink. In Band of Brothers ISTR they found Goering's cellar, is that the connection?
    Yes. Well done. I actually give the full explanation above
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192

    It's interesting how Boris and Cummings have been airbrushed out of history. There was a time when you couldn't move on here for comments about Dom and his 12D chess - the man was universally agreed to be omnipotent. What prompted this revisionism?
    He was exposed as a narcissistic egomaniacal prat.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    It's interesting how Boris and Cummings have been airbrushed out of history. There was a time when you couldn't move on here for comments about Dom and his 12D chess - the man was universally agreed to be omnipotent. What prompted this revisionism?
    Fwiw I place more credit/blame for Leave winning on Cummings than any other individual.

    Note that that’s not the same thing as Remain losing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Nick Clegg

    Point of pedantry: Gazza is from Gateshead, not Newcastle.
    I wonder if he will turn up with a fishing rod, some Stella and a KFC if Luke gets barricaded into this campaign HQ by the loons ?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Farooq said:

    Exposed? That implies it was, at some point, hidden.
    It was for some people
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612
    biggles said:

    Starmer? Yes.
    Sunak? Hmmm. Pretty narrow fund management stuff.
    Hunt? Yes.
    Reeves? Five minutes in the BoE and then some retail banking. So, sort of, but nothing massively impressive.
    Reeves worked for 6 years at BoE.

    Osborne, Cameron & Miliband didn't have 6 years of outside politics work experience between them when they started as MPs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    I see Richi is having another spectacular day on the campaign trail
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    rkrkrk said:

    Reeves worked for 6 years at BoE.

    Osborne, Cameron & Miliband didn't have 6 years of outside politics work experience between them when they started as MPs.
    Six years means you have finished the grad scheme and done one junior role. But I agree with your last para.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,600
    Scott_xP said:

    I see Richi is having another spectacular day on the campaign trail

    Has he dropped a bollock when it comes to gender?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188

    Todays betting tip. I think the 7/2 on Cons in Colchester is good value, their vote is sticky there imo

    Maybe. I'd assumed LDs were still main challengers, having held it from 1997-2015, but Lab are clear second since 2017. Be an interesting one to study the MRPs on - not so much the prediction but how it relates to national picture. Real mixed area.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    EPG said:

    A competitive Gaza-based campaign in North Durham would have been interesting, but it doesn't seem to be fertile ground for one.
    I felt quite sorry for Akehurst having seen pictures of him being harangued by Gaza loons with flags. The lot that are usually on the bridge in Durham.

    The one thing I was hoping was we would not be flooded with these crackpots.

    I follow him now on social media and any post he makes about his campaign is immediately followed with a deluge of stuff calling him all sorts. All to do with Israel and Gaza.

    Totally obscuring any message about the seat.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,094
    Cookie said:

    I like climbing. But I find it weirdly fixated on identity politics. Both indoor climbing centres I frequent have LGBTQ+ nights. One of them runs a 'free climbing for ethnic minorities' scheme (no idea how this is policed, but I can imagine it could lead to some quite awkward conversations.) One of them has the trans flag everywhere. I don't see why there should be a link.
    Maybe outdoor climbing is different - I don't know.

    My Dad tells me however that back in the 1960s there was quite a big crossover between hiking, climbing, folk music and left wing politics. So it's not a new thing.
    The Kinder trespasses - the events that in large measure led to the access rights we enjoy today - were very left wing at the top.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Taz said:


    Ha ha, you voted Green in the last election you bampot :lol:


    Fake news. Get your facts right before posting untruths on here.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Turns out Rishi has another reason to want to stop the boats:

    https://x.com/CiaranFitz_/status/1797586319864189317

    "The PM is in Henley campaigning and chatting to rowers ahead of the Regatta. Right behind him…a boat full of Lib Dem’s appeared"
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Point of pedantry: Gazza is from Gateshead, not Newcastle.
    All the same thing now !!!!

    https://newcastlegateshead.com/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,249
    Pulpstar said:

    Can I change my entry for biggest Tory vote drop. Clearly going to be Clacton now.

    Farage standing in Clacton would be my dream. i'd even pay for him to have a haircut.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUej2pWLUUc
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Fake news. Get your facts right before posting untruths on here.
    Ha ha, you go first :lol:
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,294

    Lets hope so. I completely agree with the state subsidising peoples retirement but only up to a comfortable level around normal retirement age. Why on earth are we subsidising the supposedly most productive, often trained at our expense like doctors, to retire at 50 still on top 20% of the population level earnings post retirement.
    The problem with the highest paid medics is that whatever we do provides perverse incentives. Tax them at the current tax rates without pension relief, and they may well look at the current marginal tax rates, realise they could get paid 3/4 of their current take home pay to only work 3 days a week and spend the rest of the week improving their golf swing.

    Given them pension relief, and they get to about 50, pay the mortgage off, and either go part-time or retire.

    Fundementally, if you can arrange to earn enough by the time you're 50 to pay for a comfortable lifestyle for the rest of your life, for a lot of people, why would you keep on working? But the logical conclusion to that is that the only fix to make them work longer is to pay doctors less - which just means they trot off to Australia in even greater numbers.

    I think what all this illustrates most plainly is the folly of progressively increasing tax rates; if income tax was a flat 20% rather than progressive bands, then incentives to drop to 3 days a week become much weaker, as do the incentives to load up the pension and retire earlier.

    The other side of the coin is that the cost of doctors is a function of supply and demand; there is no shortage of applicants for medical school, but because we restrict training (because training doctors is expensive) supply of doctors is very limited. What we could do with is training more doctors (increasing supply, so they will cost less to hire), but then somehow saddle them with the cost of their training in such a way that if they go abroad or decide to retire at 50 they have to pay it back in full. As for how we might actually do that, answers on a postcard...
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Turns out Rishi has another reason to want to stop the boats:

    https://x.com/CiaranFitz_/status/1797586319864189317

    "The PM is in Henley campaigning and chatting to rowers ahead of the Regatta. Right behind him…a boat full of Lib Dem’s appeared"

    If the Tories are campaigning with their big guns in Henley then they really are in deep shit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    One of the great curiosities of this election year is the PB 'Lifelong Labour Voters' who... do not vote Labour.

    The highlight was them defensively assuring us that they were going to vote for Kim McGuinness as Greater Newcastle mayor. Then finding, last-minute, yet another reason not to!

    It is, indeed, a very funny old world.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Cookie said:

    I like climbing. But I find it weirdly fixated on identity politics. Both indoor climbing centres I frequent have LGBTQ+ nights. One of them runs a 'free climbing for ethnic minorities' scheme (no idea how this is policed, but I can imagine it could lead to some quite awkward conversations.) One of them has the trans flag everywhere. I don't see why there should be a link.
    Maybe outdoor climbing is different - I don't know.

    My Dad tells me however that back in the 1960s there was quite a big crossover between hiking, climbing, folk music and left wing politics. So it's not a new thing.
    It goes back earlier still - the Clarion Cycling Clubs which you still occasionally see around have their origin in 1890s socialist campaigns, and there were rambling and choir parts of the same movement. There was a big hoohah a couple of years ago when the remnants of the club finally took out mention of socialism from their constitution.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/14/keir-hardies-cycling-club-jettisons-socialism
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Point of pedantry: Gazza is from Gateshead, not Newcastle.
    Same place. The idea that they are two separate towns is parochial nonsense.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Taz said:

    Ha ha, you go first :lol:
    You are the one that claims to be a "Lifelong Labour Voter", not me. Your then spreading lies about me doesn't help your cause.

    Why not just come clean?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482

    Same place. The idea that they are two separate towns is parochial nonsense.
    Out of curiosity, do you think the same applies to Liverpool and Birkenhead?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188
    Cookie said:

    I like climbing. But I find it weirdly fixated on identity politics. Both indoor climbing centres I frequent have LGBTQ+ nights. One of them runs a 'free climbing for ethnic minorities' scheme (no idea how this is policed, but I can imagine it could lead to some quite awkward conversations.) One of them has the trans flag everywhere. I don't see why there should be a link.
    Maybe outdoor climbing is different - I don't know.

    My Dad tells me however that back in the 1960s there was quite a big crossover between hiking, climbing, folk music and left wing politics. So it's not a new thing.
    Back in the 80s the world was full of social climbers. Now it's socialist climbers instead :wink:
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    ToryJim said:

    He was exposed as a narcissistic egomaniacal prat.
    Neatly, that works for both of them.

    Gove is the more interesting one. Some of his political obituarists have rightly pointed out that he would argue for the slaughter of the firstborn if he thought it would own the libs, but in general, he's still seen as intelligent, polite and hardworking. But a large chunk of his career has been a failure.

    Meanwhile, Farage keeps Faraging on. It's easier if you shout from the sidelines, rather than actually trying to build stuff.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686

    Same place. The idea that they are two separate towns is parochial nonsense.
    Oh give over. There's a big bloody tidal river between them.

  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    Leon said:

    Yes. Well done. I actually give the full explanation above
    When I was training to be a teacher, top of the list of useless seminars was one from some energetic bloke whose whole pitch was helping kids remember stuff. His party piece was capital cities:

    'They think it's Moldova. Chisinau!'

    To be fair, 11 years later a small parcel of my brain is still taken up by that useless fact, so the energetic chap had a point.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Same place. The idea that they are two separate towns is parochial nonsense.
    Newcastle is a city not a town you dumbass.

    Here's a little something to brighten your day.

    https://newcastle.gov.uk/services/parking-and-permits/car-parks-and-street-parking/cashless-parking
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    You are the one that claims to be a "Lifelong Labour Voter", not me. Your then spreading lies about me doesn't help your cause.

    Why not just come clean?
    You did not vote labour in 2019. How is that a lie ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274

    It goes back earlier still - the Clarion Cycling Clubs which you still occasionally see around have their origin in 1890s socialist campaigns, and there were rambling and choir parts of the same movement. There was a big hoohah a couple of years ago when the remnants of the club finally took out mention of socialism from their constitution.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/14/keir-hardies-cycling-club-jettisons-socialism
    Ditto on the right. Scouting and nationalism/imperialism. The Nazis loved a bit of camping. Kibbo kift were quite odd
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Cookie said:

    Oh give over. There's a big bloody tidal river between them.

    And Gazza actually owns the fog on it too.

    Quite how he collects it remains to be seen.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188

    Turns out Rishi has another reason to want to stop the boats:

    https://x.com/CiaranFitz_/status/1797586319864189317

    "The PM is in Henley campaigning and chatting to rowers ahead of the Regatta. Right behind him…a boat full of Lib Dem’s appeared"

    Disappointed the LD boat didn't capsize :disappointed: Presumably means Ed Davey was not on board
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited June 2024
    Still off-topic my photo of the day is 30 years of discrimination in plain sight. This is slightly nerd.

    I did a gentle audit on the Stockley Trail near the M1 J29 on Sunday; it is a 2 mile stretch of the former Midland Railway with goodies such as a couple of nature reserves and mountain bike tracks, rail gradient pathways and so on.

    It has been advertised as a "multiuser path for walkers, cyclists, horse riders and wheelchair users" for about 3 decades. The piccie below is the car park, showing disabled spaces, and barriers preventing access to the trail by mobility aid. These are also vintage mid-1990s. The only alternative for mobility aid users is to wheel yourself through a bush, a hole in the fence, and over rough, unfinished tarmac.

    At the other end of the trail the lane has 6 full width road humps - uncomfortable or unusable in a mobility aid without a motor vehicle. The implicit model is "bring your wheelchair using relative, or your dog, or your children, in the car, and take them for a walk".

    The really ironic thing is that all the rest is good - farmgates and 1.5m gaps wide side by side all the way - if you can get into the end of it. I never understand why these aren't thought through, and never joined up in the head of the designers, or on the ground. Plus there's miles more of ex-railway joined to the end of this. We have a network of ex-railways covering most of the country that could be superb.

    Fortunately, unusually here the whole thing is dedicated as a Bridleway (Glapwell BW1, Ault Hucknall BW23, Scarsdale BW38) - which hardly ever happens for these trails.

    I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.

    The appropriate what3words for this pic is https://what3words.com/overcomes.frantic.slowness


  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    Taz said:

    If the Tories are campaigning with their big guns in Henley then they really are in deep shit.
    Only if they fall in the River Thames.

    (It's actually pretty optimistic for them. Henley is only 125 on their defence list, it falls on an 11% swing. If you offered that to CCHQ- holding more than 250 seats- they would be adivsed take it before the fates changed their mind.)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686

    The Kinder trespasses - the events that in large measure led to the access rights we enjoy today - were very left wing at the top.
    Yes, true. And left-wing in an old-fashioned sort of way. Issues of land ownership, etc. (On which subject - it still rankles with me somewhat that there are places in the West Riding where one must pay to Go For A Walk - Bolton Abbey and Ingleton, for example. These seem like a bit of a throwback to a pre-1932 age.)

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    tlg86 said:

    Out of curiosity, do you think the same applies to Liverpool and Birkenhead?
    Not so much, although it probably would be better to have them aligned as one. The Mersey is wider than the Tyne with many fewer crossings. Gateshead quayside is a two-minute walk ago Newcastle quayside. They operate entirely as a single place.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,000
    theProle said:

    The problem with the highest paid medics is that whatever we do provides perverse incentives. Tax them at the current tax rates without pension relief, and they may well look at the current marginal tax rates, realise they could get paid 3/4 of their current take home pay to only work 3 days a week and spend the rest of the week improving their golf swing.

    Given them pension relief, and they get to about 50, pay the mortgage off, and either go part-time or retire.

    Fundementally, if you can arrange to earn enough by the time you're 50 to pay for a comfortable lifestyle for the rest of your life, for a lot of people, why would you keep on working? But the logical conclusion to that is that the only fix to make them work longer is to pay doctors less - which just means they trot off to Australia in even greater numbers.

    I think what all this illustrates most plainly is the folly of progressively increasing tax rates; if income tax was a flat 20% rather than progressive bands, then incentives to drop to 3 days a week become much weaker, as do the incentives to load up the pension and retire earlier.

    The other side of the coin is that the cost of doctors is a function of supply and demand; there is no shortage of applicants for medical school, but because we restrict training (because training doctors is expensive) supply of doctors is very limited. What we could do with is training more doctors (increasing supply, so they will cost less to hire), but then somehow saddle them with the cost of their training in such a way that if they go abroad or decide to retire at 50 they have to pay it back in full. As for how we might actually do that, answers on a postcard...
    With doctors I don't think it is particularly complicated.

    We should train a lot more (close to double), pay them a bit more earlier on, a bit less as they get older, a lot less and use them less when contracting rather than salaried, and give them less pension relief.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Taz said:

    You did not vote labour in 2019. How is that a lie ?
    Nor did I vote Green. Which was a lie, by you.
  • TOPPING said:

    Delusional. No Farage no Brexit. But I know it helps you sleep at night to think that he was incidental to the whole thing. Why for example do you think there was a mass rebellion on the Cons benches. Because of pressure from UKIP/Farage.
    There was a mass rebellion on the Cons benches for the same reason there were rebellions and/or a major strength of feeling on the Cons benches in Europe in both the 90s and 00s, predating any of us even hearing of Nigel Farage.

    Farage successfully tapped into that feeling at EU elections but he didn't create it, it already existed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cookie said:

    Oh give over. There's a big bloody tidal river between them.

    I lived there for six years. They operate entirely as a single entity, with numerous river crossings. There is a tidal river in London too – doesn't make it two cities.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,600
    Taz said:

    All the same thing now !!!!

    https://newcastlegateshead.com/
    Never!

    Gateshead, County Durham.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940

    Turns out Rishi has another reason to want to stop the boats:

    https://x.com/CiaranFitz_/status/1797586319864189317

    "The PM is in Henley campaigning and chatting to rowers ahead of the Regatta. Right behind him…a boat full of Lib Dem’s appeared"

    Hahaha. Lovely.

    Is it just me or the Lib Dems are nailing this campaign? Great massive Red Ensign too.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Never!

    Gateshead, County Durham.
    Not been County Durham for fifty years.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,600

    Turns out Rishi has another reason to want to stop the boats:

    https://x.com/CiaranFitz_/status/1797586319864189317

    "The PM is in Henley campaigning and chatting to rowers ahead of the Regatta. Right behind him…a boat full of Lib Dem’s appeared"

    Campaigning at the Henley Regatta. The ultimate Tory core vote strategy.
  • Roger said:

    There is no evidence that Farage helped the Vote Leave campaign. It depends how far back you want to go. It could certainly be argued that he and his party's success put pressure on Cameron to hold the referendum but none that he personally affected the result. The Referendum was won by Cummings and Johnson and the insipidity of Corbyn and Cameron. Farage played no useful part after the referendum was called.
    Now that's a first, I agree with @Roger

    That's almost shocking enough to make me question my beliefs LOL.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Ye Gods, no wonder the government had to create metro mayors. The parochialism (on show here) is holding our great cities back.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    Leon said:

    Ditto on the right. Scouting and nationalism/imperialism. The Nazis loved a bit of camping. Kibbo kift were quite odd
    Blimey. The Woodcraft Folk were odd enough, and they were Kibbo Kift with the strange bits removed. (I was one, despite coming from a respectable Conservative household. The waiting list to join was shorter than for the Scouts.)

    But- different times. Imagine youth groups split by political worldview today.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Only if they fall in the River Thames.

    (It's actually pretty optimistic for them. Henley is only 125 on their defence list, it falls on an 11% swing. If you offered that to CCHQ- holding more than 250 seats- they would be adivsed take it before the fates changed their mind.)
    I didn't realise that. I had assumed it was rock solid safe.

    In that context it looks sensible to be there.
  • Ye Gods, no wonder the government had to create metro mayors. The parochialism (on show here) is holding our great cities back.

    Since when was Newcastle a "great" city?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188
    MattW said:

    Still off-topic my photo of the day is 30 years of discrimination in plain sight. This is slightly nerd.

    I did a gentle audit on the Stockley Trail near the M1 J29 on Sunday; it is a 2 mile stretch of the former Midland Railway with goodies such as a couple of nature reserves and mountain bike tracks, rail gradient pathways and so on.

    It has been advertised as a "multiuser path for walkers, cyclists, horse riders and wheelchair users" for about 3 decades. The piccie below is the car park, showing disabled spaces, and barriers preventing access to the trail by mobility aid. These are also vintage mid-1990s. The only alternative for mobility aid users is to wheel yourself through a bush, a hole in the fence, and over rough, unfinished tarmac.

    At the other end of the trail the lane has 6 full width road humps - uncomfortable or unusable in a mobility aid without a motor vehicle. The implicit model is "bring your wheelchair using relative, or your dog, or your children, in the car, and take them for a walk".

    The really ironic thing is that all the rest is good - farmgates and 1.5m gaps wide side by side all the way - if you can get into the end of it. I never understand why these aren't thought through, and never joined up in the head of the designers, or on the ground. Plus there's miles more of ex-railway joined to the end of this. We have a network of ex-railways covering most of the country that could be superb.

    Fortunately, unusually here the whole thing is dedicated as a Bridleway (Glapwell BW1, Ault Hucknall BW23, Scarsdale BW38) - which hardly ever happens for these trails.

    I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.

    The appropriate what3words for this pic is https://what3words.com/overcomes.frantic.slowness


    That's an astonishingly apt W3W - one has to overcome the obstacles, possibly becoming frantic, but slowness is guaranteed :disappointed:

    Agree, as usual, on the substantive points.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,562

    Deltapoll and JL Partners I'd imagine
    Maybe that explains why there has been a sharp movement in Betfair's market on the number of Tory seats. The band 50-99 is now clear favorite at 2.76 [last pricematched].
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Since when was Newcastle a "great" city?
    It's a superb city, and one of our biggest too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Nor did I vote Green. Which was a lie, by you.
    Hardly a lie. It was an error, but (unlike me at every General Election I have participated in) you did not vote labour in 2019.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    There was a mass rebellion on the Cons benches for the same reason there were rebellions and/or a major strength of feeling on the Cons benches in Europe in both the 90s and 00s, predating any of us even hearing of Nigel Farage.

    Farage successfully tapped into that feeling at EU elections but he didn't create it, it already existed.
    The fact that it already existed before Farage is a point in favour of Farage being a decisive factor, not against it.
  • The fact that it already existed before Farage is a point in favour of Farage being a decisive factor, not against it.
    No, its a big point against it.

    Farage jumped on a bandwagon.

    That's what populists tend to do. Find a cause and try to claim it for your own.

    Euroscepticism runs much deeper, much wider and much healthier than Nigel effing Farage.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Taz said:

    Hardly a lie. It was an error, but (unlike me at every General Election I have participated in) you did not vote labour in 2019.

    I have never claimed to be a lifelong Labour voter – that is my point!

    But, I'm happy to accept you made a simple error. Okay – it's forgotten.

  • It's a superb city, and one of our biggest too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom
    Being big doesn't make you great, under that list you'd be counting Glasgow as great too.
  • Ed Davey should have been water skiing behind that boat full of Libby people in Henley.

    Water skiing to a jump that takes him over a shark?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,816

    Perhaps he's going to stand in Sunak's constituency!
    Farage standing in Sunak's constituency was my guess too, but only after Rishi stands down, so if the Tories call an emergency press conference for half past three...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,261
    I think Farage was instrumental in the Brexit vote. It was, lest we forget, a close result - and at the time he displayed a knack for reaching voters other politicians, particularly Tories, couldn’t (Boris’ appeal at that stage with those voters being somewhat nascent and nothing near what he was able to do by 2019).

    But the other thing about Farage is he now has more baggage than Heathrow Airport and I remain unconvinced he is the populist right’s great hope. He already has vast swathes of the population turned against him. I have been very clear on here that I do expect the populist right to emerge as a significant force in British politics in the coming years - but if they’re looking for a figure to take them to new highs, Farage ain’t it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    edited June 2024

    It's a superb city, and one of our biggest too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom
    Agree. Newcastle and the surrounding area have all the ingredients of a really successful city region. Already got the metro and some cycle infrastructure that could be expanded. Stunning city centre, unique topography with the big drop to the river (Edinburgh-esque). Direct line to London. Weather isn't too bad either on the east coast.

    Should've been the centre piece of levelling up.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 829

    It's a superb city, and one of our biggest too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom
    Certainly is.

    So is Gateshead.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,562

    I lived there for six years. They operate entirely as a single entity, with numerous river crossings. There is a tidal river in London too – doesn't make it two cities.
    There's a genuine cultural divide though. Folk like me who were brought up in Hackney seldom went south of the river, except to Epsom for the racing or Brighton for dirty weekends.
  • tlg86 said:

    Out of curiosity, do you think the same applies to Liverpool and Birkenhead?
    Those are most definitely separate.

    The fact there's only one tunnel that directly links the two and zero bridges is a big part in the lack of integration. Contrast with London that has 35 bridges crossing the Thames.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940

    Being big doesn't make you great, under that list you'd be counting Glasgow as great too.
    Are you doing that modern Tory thing of trying to offend as many people are possible?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Interesting header, thanks @tlg86
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,975
    Zara considers their Metro Centre store their Newcastle store for a reason
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited June 2024
    Eabhal said:

    These minority interest groups get more interesting when attempts are made to build bridges between them. For example, I am very active in active travel and hiking/climbing groups. Both groups have large crossovers to LGBT, pro-Palestine, drug using communities, and it's often assumed that I would be interested in those too.

    I'm sympathetic to their needs and objectives, but begrudge that assumption and get very irritated when I see Palestine flags all over the place when I'm trying to solve a problem like dooring, or trying to work out if a particular carabiner is incompatible with a belay device.

    I like climbing. But I find it weirdly fixated on identity politics. Both indoor climbing centres I frequent have LGBTQ+ nights. One of them runs a 'free climbing for ethnic minorities' scheme (no idea how this is policed, but I can imagine it could lead to some quite awkward conversations.) One of them has the trans flag everywhere. I don't see why there should be a link.
    Maybe outdoor climbing is different - I don't know.

    My Dad tells me however that back in the 1960s there was quite a big crossover between hiking, climbing, folk music and left wing politics. So it's not a new thing.
    Isn't this just how things work in life? The groups around Palestine, Trans, LGBT, Rights and Active Travel are at least in part because those are the current emphases in Green Party community - some short term, some long term - and the Green Party is one of the focus points ("Communities grow where networks intersect" - Bishop Graham Cray iirc). 20 years ago you would have had homeopathy as well.

    Similar in the different non-conformist and socialist and utilitarian traditions in Trade Unionism.

    Equally in access and active travel we have the Paternalistic / Aristocratic tradition (eg Octavia Hill, Canon Hardwicke Rawnsley who founded the NT), and Mass Trespass ("it's OUR countryside too) and others more associated with the Ramblers. Cycling is probably more on the aristo side of that from the early (Victorian) days when cyclists were campaigning for better roads.

    One divide I notice now that I always try to bridge is between Urban type activists, who have noticed the Equality Act, and are starting to use that in getting illegal anti-wheelchair barriers removed one on side; and the Rambler type people who know about Right of Way law but are mainly rural.

    The urban ones understand accessibility and Equality Law. The rural ones understand Rights of Way law. They need joining up.

    One interesting quirk which I need to chip away at is that the Ramblers' "Path Accessibility Fund" is proudly replacing styles with gates which are not wheelchair or mobility scooter accessible, and wheelchair / scooter rambling have been transformed in the last 2 decades. I think sometimes this makes accessible paths inaccessible, but does not matter if the basic path is not accessible.

    They have done 250 gates in @Foxy 's country in the Isle of Wight alone. I've started talking out loud about this, but it's a sensitive issue needing raising careful. It will come up against the usual "but look what WE'VE done for YOU; can't you be grateful?" statements.
    https://campaignerkate.wordpress.com/2023/05/14/isle-of-wight-ramblers-250th-gate/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    I think Farage was instrumental in the Brexit vote. It was, lest we forget, a close result - and at the time he displayed a knack for reaching voters other politicians, particularly Tories, couldn’t (Boris’ appeal at that stage with those voters being somewhat nascent and nothing near what he was able to do by 2019).

    But the other thing about Farage is he now has more baggage than Heathrow Airport and I remain unconvinced he is the populist right’s great hope. He already has vast swathes of the population turned against him. I have been very clear on here that I do expect the populist right to emerge as a significant force in British politics in the coming years - but if they’re looking for a figure to take them to new highs, Farage ain’t it.

    Farage was the Godfather of Brexit and for me that's appropriate because the core spirit of Brexit (although not all Leavers share it) is the spirit of Farage. It was a project of the Populist Right.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Being big doesn't make you great, under that list you'd be counting Glasgow as great too.
    Glasgow is an absolutely belting city.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited June 2024
    17 Polls released last week

    Lab lead ranging from 12 to 27

    Ave lead calculated as Mean Average 21.12

    Median Lead 22

    Modal lead 23

    Data from UK Polling Wiki

    Raw Data 22, 14, 22, 12, 17, 27, 23, 23, 23, 27, 19, 16, 20, 25, 24, 20, 25
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Zara considers their Metro Centre store their Newcastle store for a reason

    Ha! Indeed. One baffling thing though about the Metro Centre is... that it is NOT on the Metro!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482

    Those are most definitely separate.

    The fact there's only one tunnel that directly links the two and zero bridges is a big part in the lack of integration. Contrast with London that has 35 bridges crossing the Thames.
    Yeah, but it's got a ferry.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Leon said:

    Ditto on the right. Scouting and nationalism/imperialism. The Nazis loved a bit of camping. Kibbo kift were quite odd
    They really were. You can't read their 1930s folksong anthem without thinking it's got a bit of proto-fascism about it:

    "All Hael! All Hael! We wield the lashing flail,
    That beats the golden life out of all things stale.
    We come, we come, we come, the Kibbo Kift,
    Children of the Fire and the wide world's drift.
    Whoso wrong our fiery throng stuns.
    We are the strong ones, we the Kibbo Kift,
    We come, we come, we come, the Kibbo Kift,
    Children of the Fire and the wide world's drift."

    Rolf Gardiner (who wrote this) was kind of the missing link between Morris dancing and Nazi eugenics. Which is a sentence I never thought I'd write. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Gardiner
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,875
    Re Starmer on defence what odds on Lammy not being Foreign Secretary in his government?
  • .
    Eabhal said:

    Are you doing that modern Tory thing of trying to offend as many people are possible?
    I'm having fun, yes, but I wouldn't link it to a party I don't support - or any party or politics either.

    If you can't take the piss, are you even British?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    It's a superb city, and one of our biggest too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom
    “Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)

    It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.

    Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.

    Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,508
    About half a million people have been left without their Child Benefit payment, after a technical issue at HMRC.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceqqv249gn6o

    Very few of those directly affected would have been likely to vote Tory, so unlikely to change many people's voting intention - but it will further add to the general feeling of chaos and decline.

    The Tories desperately need to find a couple of good news stories before the postal votes go out, but it's hard to see where they're going to come from.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,203

    They really were. You can't read their 1930s folksong anthem without thinking it's got a bit of proto-fascism about it:

    "All Hael! All Hael! We wield the lashing flail,
    That beats the golden life out of all things stale.
    We come, we come, we come, the Kibbo Kift,
    Children of the Fire and the wide world's drift.
    Whoso wrong our fiery throng stuns.
    We are the strong ones, we the Kibbo Kift,
    We come, we come, we come, the Kibbo Kift,
    Children of the Fire and the wide world's drift."

    Rolf Gardiner (who wrote this) was kind of the missing link between Morris dancing and Nazi eugenics. Which is a sentence I never thought I'd write. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Gardiner
    Misread that was "our fiery thong stuns"...
  • Has anyone got any more good betting tips for either constituencies or overall?

    It seems like there’s so little value out there.

    Thinking about trading bets on the Lib Dem’s for ‘Most seats without Labour’. Could Farage’s announcement make that more enticing?

    I’ve also laid Reform 0 seats as I imagine the 4pm announcement will lead to a surge of betting on them - may be able to secure a quick profit by tonight.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Re Starmer on defence what odds on Lammy not being Foreign Secretary in his government?

    No chance he will be FS imo
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    MattW said:

    I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.

    I'm sure you know this but Derbyshire's cycling officer is very good IMO - I'm sure she'd be receptive.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192

    Re Starmer on defence what odds on Lammy not being Foreign Secretary in his government?

    Quite low I’d have thought. I think the only time the shadow Foreign Secretary hasn’t become Foreign Secretary is when Maggie sidelined Pym for Lord Carrington. Now how long he lasts when he is there is a different matter.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109

    It's a superb city, and one of our biggest too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom
    I've been there twice. Unfortunately one of those times coincided with what I think was their hottest ever heatwave and of course the hotel didn't have any air conditioning. That was in about 2008.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited June 2024
    Selebian said:

    That's an astonishingly apt W3W - one has to overcome the obstacles, possibly becoming frantic, but slowness is guaranteed :disappointed:

    Agree, as usual, on the substantive points.
    There often is if you look.

    My favourite is still probably the famous Kerplunk Barriers near RHS Bridgwater (I did not post a pic over the w/e so I am assuming 50% of quota persists), which are 4-fold chicanes on a gritty slippy path to "slow cyclists down", where it's impossible to slow down because it's a steep hill and wheels instantly lock.

    It's supposed ot be a major route to RHS Bridgewater for walking and wheeling, but no one in a mobility aid will go down that unless completely deranged.

    The real problem is that it's a one in ten hill (national standard max allowed 1:20) because they f*cked up the profile of the path. They were able to dig down for the houses either side, but no one bothered. It's fixable but difficult to make happen.

    It is at https://what3words.com/jumpy.wheels.spices .


  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67

    Perhaps he's going to stand in Sunak's constituency!
    He could likely unseat any of the otherwise hanging-on Tories by splitting their vote. He won't, I mean, what's in if for him; but it would certainly be funny!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    Re Starmer on defence what odds on Lammy not being Foreign Secretary in his government?

    It’s got to be a former PM now, so Blair is the obvious choice.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2024

    Has anyone got any more good betting tips for either constituencies or overall?

    It seems like there’s so little value out there.

    Thinking about trading bets on the Lib Dem’s for ‘Most seats without Labour’. Could Farage’s announcement make that more enticing?

    I’ve also laid Reform 0 seats as I imagine the 4pm announcement will lead to a surge of betting on them - may be able to secure a quick profit by tonight.

    DYOR but
    If you believe indy Leanne Mohammed is putting Streeting under pressure in Ilford North then Tory 12/1 is super value.
    Labour woes in Birmingham make 7/1 against Tories holding Northfield just about value
    Scottish seats generally but dive in and look for bargains. Perth, Angus spring to mind
This discussion has been closed.