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Your morning must read – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    biggles said:

    Except gov.uk including passport and driving licence applications, online tax accounts, the NHS app etc.

    We should be more proud than we are about what we have achieved in public facing government IT in the is country. Most of it just works and it sooo much better than the old ways.
    Indeed. Much of GOV.UK is very good (particularly the small bit I wrote). The Government Digital Service approach has been very positive and taken up worldwide (see https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2055207618759168 ). IT implementation in the NHS has been more problematic, although we should acknowledge it's a harder problem. The frustration I have with government IT is that pockets of excellence keep getting lost because of the government's obsession with reorganisation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    Selebian said:

    He rides a water slide exactly the same way he rides a bike, even down to the facial expression :smiley:

    Vote for consistency. Vote for knowing what you'll get. Vote for someone who knows how to go downhill fast. Vote LD 👍
    LibDems: Going downhill fast.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Eabhal said:

    How come the number of spare bedrooms has increased then?
    Wealthy older folk. All the increase has come from people with at least two spare bedrooms. Doesn't help anyone.

    "Between 2011 and 2021, the number of spare bedrooms in people's homes in England and Wales surged from 24.2m to 26m, census data shows. The number of households living in properties with at least two spare bedrooms soared by 825,000"
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798
    Cookie said:

    Yes, I think they would.
    Campaigns have very little impact.
    Unless, of course, you do something really daft like threaten to reintroduce National Service (Con 2024) or bang on and on and on about Brexit and Brexit and Brexit and Brexit and trans and Brexit (Lib Dem 2019) or hide in a fridge (Con 2019) or, just, everything (Lab 2019) or refuse to talk about anything at all (Con 2017). But in general, campaigns don't really shift the dial. So you may as well enjoy yourself.
    I'd go further - I think the Lib Dems have had the best campaign so far. They've been visible and reminded people that they exist, but haven't reminded people why they hate them. Con and Lab campaigns seem to have been focusing more on the latter.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819
    TOPPING said:

    Everyone.
    Everyone plus 2 million over the next 3 years?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,693
    Given how ignored the LibDems have been by the public recently, Ed Davey's strategy of silliness might be the best one - if indeed it's a strategy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    If you can't afford to buy anything, there's nothing to throw away.
    Eh?

    Look around the back of any supermarket.

    And lots of unsold new clothes are also trashed.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    My dad (turns 85 tomorrow) had had a new knee and a new hip in the last 18 months, both done privately. Cost 15 grand each time. He can afford it and he might as well spend the money to improve his quality of life in whatever he has left (hopefully plenty of years)*. I support any boomer who is well off doing the same, rather than wait for the NHS.

    *He said recently that he would like to see my son get married, which might be touch ambitious as the poor lad is only 16 months, but hey. Gotta have a dream!
    Maybe the next Conservative Party policy announcement will be to re-introduce child marriages. They like borrowing ideas from the Republicans: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/republican-lawmakers-child-marriage-abortion-1235018777/

    Happy birthday to your Dad!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    Shouldn't you be canvassing or leafletting or something? Isn't there are market somewhere you could go round? What's your agent thinking, letting you idle your time away on pb?
    I'm working!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I'm working!
    There are Banff voters on PB? (Well, apart from yourself.)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661

    Wealthy older folk. All the increase has come from people with at least two spare bedrooms. Doesn't help anyone.

    "Between 2011 and 2021, the number of spare bedrooms in people's homes in England and Wales surged from 24.2m to 26m, census data shows. The number of households living in properties with at least two spare bedrooms soared by 825,000"
    Presumably plenty of WFHers are using a "bedroom" as an office. So it isn't going spare.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    carnforth said:

    Given how ignored the LibDems have been by the public recently, Ed Davey's strategy of silliness might be the best one - if indeed it's a strategy.

    To make people think they are an amiable variety of reasonably sentient hominine, compared to the two main parties? It could well work.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    Richard Madeley asked whether Davey falling in the water was good for the party. Add was told that he and the media are talking out our policy on sewage in our lakes and rivers.

    Would they have done so without the stunts?
    So he's happy to fall into the water, so clearly thinks there isn't a sewage problem... :D
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624
    Selebian said:

    It also reminds me, somehow, of the Trainspotting poster.

    Choose life. Choose a fucking big majority...
    He looks well. Starmer's ok too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Andy_JS said:

    It's the single most astonishing thing in British politics imo.
    I think the single most astonishing thing in British politics is that the Conservatives keep trying to campaign on lower immigration while being the party that oversaw record high immigration.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917

    On thread, that's an interesting dive into the Opinium methodology and Opinium's approach is consistent with what I've been saying for some time - namely that if "don't knows" are to be reallocated for a party, it should be no more than in proportion to how the 2019 "do knows" for that party are breaking.

    Reallocating on that basis is in my view a reasonable method, but I do still wonder whether the "don't votes" amongst the undecided are being underestimated by Opinium, because essentially they're assuming that every single one of the "dont knows" will vote if they respond to say that they will. To be fair, they are following the question response there, rather than making assumptions and therefore predictions of their own. However, I think it probable that a lot of undecideds who at the moment think that they will probably vote won't in the end bother if they can't easily make up their mind by polling day, whatever they say to pollsters now. So Opinium are in my opinion probably still overestimating the number of undecideds who realistically should be allocated back.

    Opinium would counter that by saying that they apply very heavy turnout filters before asking voting intention questions, so the turnout implied by their polling isn't that unrealistic compared to actual turnout on polling day. I know that Opinium are unusual in that they at the start they ask a very loaded question designed to get people to admit that they aren't on the electoral register and then exclude them - that was apparent from their old published tables although they don't publish such detail now. But they may be overdoing it - in particular because a lot of people get onto the electoral register at the last minute after a general election is called. In 2019 nearly 3 million people did.

    So although Opinium may claim that their overall implied turnout is plausible, Opinium may be excluding quite a few unregistered people who will in fact get on the register and vote, while including too many undecided voters by imputing votes for all of them. The former tend to be disproportionately Labour, while there are a lot of 2019 Conservatives in the latter. So I think that is probably biasing Opinium's polling a tad towards the Conservatives at this point, when the final electoral register has still to be set in stone.

    I think those are very sensible comments.

    The other potential problem is that the method is taking 2019 as reference point for the adjustment, which many people would say was an untypical election. It might be that - for example - those who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 are over-represented (or under-represented) among the "Will vote but don't know how" category now. In that case reallocating them in proportion to the "Do knows" wouldn't be correct.

    In principle Opinium could test for that by carrying out the same procedure based on 2017 instead of 2019. Though no doubt people's recollection of how they voted would be less trustworthy than for 2019.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,340
    Sandpit said:

    Is there not an open source lesson plan / homework task depository somewhere? That would likely help with productivity at the margin, especially when the curriculum changes.
    There are, and some of them are even not-terrible.

    And they can reduce prep time, but not to zero. Think of it like a play script; an actor can just walk onto the stage with no rehersal with a script in their hands, but they wouldn't be very good. Also, a fair bit of teaching is the unscripted stuff, the off-the-cuff answers to unexpected questions. Sometimes, I need to create a lesson from scratch in order to think through what the questions/issues are going to be, even if the content is someone else's.

    (One of my fave reads this year has been Ros Atkins's Art of Explanation. It does make me jealous to know how much time he has to distill a pile of content into a couple of minutes of clarity. If only...)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Leon said:

    Indeed. I believe it’s our education system. Anti racism and Not Talking About Immigration has been drummed into them from the age of 5 so they don’t even have the language or bandwidth to talk about it or even conceive that it is an issue

    Plus they can see the intense social pain inflicted on anyone that tries to talk about it, so their aversion is logical

    Comparisons with education in the communist era of Eastern Europe are not entirely inapt. The guides here in Moldova have been explaining to me how they were brainwashed as kids to believe in the Soviet system even when it was clearly failing
    Euch, imagining teaching kids not to be racist, what a terrible thing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    Presumably plenty of WFHers are using a "bedroom" as an office. So it isn't going spare.
    This was upto 2021 so before the big wfh (aka watching homes under the hammer in the morning and recycle your coffee table using £500 of expert craft labour to be able to sell it from £150 in the afternoon) revolution.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    The Lab Candidate for North Durham has deleted over 1000 of his own tweets this morning.

    https://x.com/judeinlondon/status/1796119379744108789/photo/1

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    So he's happy to fall into the water, so clearly thinks there isn't a sewage problem... :D
    OTOH if he ends up chundering in public as a result, he's made an important point.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,561

    Maybe the next Conservative Party policy announcement will be to re-introduce child marriages. They like borrowing ideas from the Republicans: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/republican-lawmakers-child-marriage-abortion-1235018777/

    Happy birthday to your Dad!
    Yes, best wishes.
    From one oer 85 (86 now) to another!

    I must say I like the idea of aiming to see a now 16 month old get married; must tell my grandson that I want to see his similarly aged son do that.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    biggles said:

    Except gov.uk including passport and driving licence applications, online tax accounts, the NHS app etc.

    We should be more proud than we are about what we have achieved in public facing government IT in the is country. Most of it just works and it sooo much better than the old ways.
    GDS (Government Digital Service - they run gov.uk, amongst other things) was one of the biggest achievements of the coalition government. They've done a lot with relatively little, and can genuinely claim to have been world-leading.

    Less so now, unfortunately. Part of that was a result of the Brexit limbo - like a lot of central govt, they had to spend years 'preparing to prepare' for what remained a moving target until 2020. The other part was a more general loss of focus resulting from the turnover of ministers and some minor empire building and politicking within the Cabinet Office (eg. separating strategy out into CDDO, for god only knows what reason).

    And unfortunately there are still areas of govt that take a Not Invented Here attitude and refuse to properly engage with GDS - the Treasury/HMRC, and the Home Office being the two worst offenders.

    But for everything else, our online govt services really do tend to be much better than those in other comparable countries.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited May 2024

    It may not be sustained. Younger people in many western nations are trending rightwards. Their trajectory here has been stopped by three main factors I think - 1) the Tory brand is seriously uncool, 2) Brexit as a right wing populist concept removed a lot of freedoms for young people to study/work abroad, and 3) the Tories have spent the last decade trying to keep the elderly vote happy, largely at the expense of the young.

    Once the Tories lose power then there might a realignment that starts this process. We shall see.
    Opinions tend to go as sets. Hence the view that if you know X's opinions about ABC you can guess with some accuracy X's opinions on DEF.

    Issues which don't conform with this are interesting. The whole trans thing over recent times has divided generally leftish/feminist set opinion for example. So centre left politicians don't want to go there. Brexit opinions tend to belong to sets of opinion, but didn't align well with political party sets of opinions. One reason for practical and political chaos, best dealt with by Lab and Con by studied silence.

    Who do opinions go as sets? It saves having to think and preserves friendship groups. Among elites, wrongthink can be career ending.

    Are the opinion sets mutually incompatible and inconsistent. Of course they are. Unless you are trying to run the country it is no problem. To that group, special rules of language apply.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732

    Can't be sure, but I suspect that a fair bit of the answer is older homeowners deciding that they don't want to, or need to, downsize. And the bottom line is that, in a free country, it's not obvious that they can be made to or that they should be made to.

    As with many things, the issue isn't in the averages, it's in the variance from the averages. But the Janet Slimfast "I don't like the idea of new houses near me and they wouldn't be necessary if we didn't have so many incomers" argument has a load of holes in it as well.
    I do wonder if a lot of the unwillingness to downsize is because of the sheer cost of moving home (stamp duty and similar).

    There is another niche issue that almost stopped my parents moving until they found a sheltered housing place that handles thing differently. Most places insist on the very high monthly fees being paid until the flat is finally sold which puts a lot of pressure on grieving families to sell a property as costs rise at £800 a month...

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    This was upto 2021 so before the big wfh (aka watching homes under the hammer in the morning and recycle your coffee table using £500 of expert craft labour to be able to sell it from £150 in the afternoon) revolution.
    Covid came along in February 2020, no?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Whereas for SKS fans (who are not lifelong Labour voters) like you and Pete they believe any old hype/tripe from Lab.

    The Telegraph report is mainly factual but hey Centrists don't let facts get in the way of anything whilst at the same time being full on hypocrites about their own voting records.
    My regular reminder that I have yet to meet an "SKS Fan" whether on here or elsewhere. I have also never met a "Sunak Fan" nor a "Davey Fan".

    I have met, however, several "Corbyn Fans" but given they deny he led the party into its worst defeat in nearly a century I think they could perhaps better be described as "Corbyn Cultists".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    Relatives of me are just emerging from a Kafkaesque social worker/police/court nightmare ("no case to answer"). Its gone on for over a year, resulted from my nephew ringing 111 for advice and help too many times (red flag apparently) and an overzealous doctor thinking he saw historic bone fractures on my nephews baby, that no-one else could see (canals on Mars next?). I imagine the paperwork load is huge. And they are going to need it as the shit is coming right back at them as soon as the official process ends.

    I have huge sympathy for social workers. They often deal with the worst of humanity and when it goes wrong we get children murdered and the press rips into the social workers more than the murderers. But they don't always get it right and sometimes make stupid errors. I imagine they are taught to document EVERYTHING for their own protection.

    Hell we even do it as tutors at Uni. Log every meeting, keep emails etc, just in case it goes bad.

    Relatives of me are just emerging from a Kafkaesque social worker/police/court nightmare ("no case to answer"). Its gone on for over a year, resulted from my nephew ringing 111 for advice and help too many times (red flag apparently) and an overzealous doctor thinking he saw historic bone fractures on my nephews baby, that no-one else could see (canals on Mars next?). I imagine the paperwork load is huge. And they are going to need it as the shit is coming right back at them as soon as the official process ends.

    I have huge sympathy for social workers. They often deal with the worst of humanity and when it goes wrong we get children murdered and the press rips into the social workers more than the murderers. But they don't always get it right and sometimes make stupid errors. I imagine they are taught to document EVERYTHING for their own protection.

    Hell we even do it as tutors at Uni. Log every meeting, keep emails etc, just in case it goes bad.
    I work, mostly in Banking IT. Everything we do is recorded and monitored to the nth degree.

    The trick is to make that recording and monitoring an automatic part of a streamlined process.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Carnyx said:

    Covid came along in February 2020, no?
    COVID-19 came along in December 2019. The clue's in the name.

    Working from home came with the first lockdown, so late March 2020 in the UK.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Everyone plus 2 million over the next 3 years?
    You can leave if you think it might help.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145
    Sandpit said:

    They’ll be needing to do 20% more of that next year.
    There you go. An instant 20 per cent productivity increase in the private sector, once more showing the NHS up as a dinosaur.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    COVID-19 came along in December 2019. The clue's in the name.

    Working from home came with the first lockdown, so late March 2020 in the UK.
    Meant in the UK (in practical terms). But there's still a discrepancy between that and the 2021 stat being quoted.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145

    Richard Madeley asked whether Davey falling in the water was good for the party. Add was told that he and the media are talking out our policy on sewage in our lakes and rivers.

    Would they have done so without the stunts?
    Richard Madeley is among our top political interviewers, remarkably enough.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    I think the single most astonishing thing in British politics is that the Conservatives keep trying to campaign on lower immigration while being the party that oversaw record high immigration.
    Which other areas of policy appear better for them, though ?
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    Carnyx said:

    OTOH if he ends up chundering in public as a result, he's made an important point.
    How does the sewage theme fit in with Davey going down a waterslide? I am reminded of a scene from The Inbetweeners 2 film that I had hoped to forget.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819
    TOPPING said:

    You can leave if you think it might help.
    You see how easily you slip into thoughts about excluding people due to competition for resources? The level of immigration is the biggest threat to the colour-blind (or anything-blind) society you want to protect.

    We can never build enough for 'everyone' if 'everyone' continues to expand at such a rapid rate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    Lunchtime again..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    So he's happy to fall into the water, so clearly thinks there isn't a sewage problem... :D
    He's got you talking about poo rather than the PO, so whatever he's doing, it's reasonably effective.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    DougSeal said:

    My regular reminder that I have yet to meet an "SKS Fan" whether on here or elsewhere. I have also never met a "Sunak Fan" nor a "Davey Fan".

    I have met, however, several "Corbyn Fans" but given they deny he led the party into its worst defeat in nearly a century I think they could perhaps better be described as "Corbyn Cultists".
    Sunil, Anabobazina, Mexican Pete are SKS fans. None of them voted Lab in 2017/ 2019

    I have yet to meet a Corbyn critic who mentions 2017

    Probably due to the fact they would love to forget the biggest swing to Lab since WW2
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Carnyx said:

    Covid came along in February 2020, no?
    Fair point!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    DougSeal said:

    My regular reminder that I have yet to meet an "SKS Fan" whether on here or elsewhere. I have also never met a "Sunak Fan" nor a "Davey Fan".

    I have met, however, several "Corbyn Fans" but given they deny he led the party into its worst defeat in nearly a century I think they could perhaps better be described as "Corbyn Cultists".
    JBC Cultists please explain
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Nigelb said:

    Which other areas of policy appear better for them, though ?
    Employment figures, Ukraine, support for energy costs, the move away from fossil fuels for electricity, buoyant stock market, bilateral deal with Albania, Westminster Framework. I think they're terrible, but they have some things that have gone well they could talk about.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Richard Madeley is among our top political interviewers, remarkably enough.
    Indeed. Madeley is a serious - and skilled - journalist. He got the rep as a daytime TV Partridge because This Morning paid infinitely better than pounding the local beat for Granada.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145
    The Rest is Politics livestream from this morning included some interesting thoughts on politicians being over-coached to stay on message, and background about stunts like the PM travelling alone on a train with his close protection unit, SpAds and two dozen journalists just out of shot.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fq3f-58zukQ
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    edited May 2024


    I work, mostly in Banking IT. Everything we do is recorded and monitored to the nth degree.

    The trick is to make that recording and monitoring an automatic part of a streamlined process.
    Easy to do with desk based systems hard to do (until now) with meetings.

    Were I in charge of social care anywhere I would be seriously looking at Microsoft's co-pilot for teams (or similar meeting attending AI) to sit in meetings and generate the meeting summaries..
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617
    edited May 2024

    The Lab Candidate for North Durham has deleted over 1000 of his own tweets this morning.

    https://x.com/judeinlondon/status/1796119379744108789/photo/1

    Oh F***. This twat is going to be my MP.

    Really disappointed how this has panned out. This guy just parachuted into our seat. Kevan Jones did stuff and helped people out locally.

    What will this guy do for us. F*ck him and F*ck labour for treating us like this. Always voted for Kevan Jones. He's a great local MP and his twitter feed and facebook feed is not full of recycled party messages.

    Definitely not voting now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    ToryJim said:

    Another day of Ed Davey dicking about in his midlife crisis.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1796108810387329179?s=61

    Dudes having a midlife crisis are a big voter demographic.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    edited May 2024

    You see how easily you slip into thoughts about excluding people due to competition for resources? The level of immigration is the biggest threat to the colour-blind (or anything-blind) society you want to protect.

    We can never build enough for 'everyone' if 'everyone' continues to expand at such a rapid rate.
    I was more thinking of self-exclusion.

    We sort of can build enough for "everyone" unless you have an idea to restrict population growth. What was the stat the other day? Some ridiculously small percentage of the UK is built upon.

    But that's not the point. The point, as small children from Hartlepool understand - and our very own Dura upthread pointed out - is that it is wholly within our power to cut immigration. But government after government has refused to do so. Governments are elected on a popular mandate to do stuff and we quite simply haven't asked ours in recent times to prioritise restricting immigration.

    Richard Tice was on the radio this morning saying legal and illegal immigration needs attention so come July 4th we will see if the Great British Public, with a golden opportunity finally to do something about it, agrees with him and votes for Reform.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,561

    Euch, imagining teaching kids not to be racist, what a terrible thing.
    One of my granddaughters taught for a while in a school in Mark Francois’ constituency. Shen had some problems with racist Year 12’s as I recall.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    You could do worse than live in Chisinau. You could also do better but still. Clean green safe and airy with excellent wine and lots of ugly buildings but good coffee and Ukrainian ice cream. Also Pushkin was exiled here - who knew?! Must have been relieved it wasn’t Siberia

    A place being litter free isn't always a good sign. It can mean a place is either a dictatorship or very poor. North Korea is apparently one of the most litter-free places in the world.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    Taz said:

    Oh F***. This twat is going to be my MP.

    Really disappointed how this has panned out. This guy just parachuted into our seat. Kevan Jones did stuff and helped people out locally.

    What will this guy do for us. F*ck him and F*ck labour for treating us like this. Always voted for Kevan Jones. He's a great local MP and his twitter feed and facebook feed is not full of recycled party messages.

    Definitely not voting now.
    Has the Labour candidate been tweeting stuff about the Jews?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    You see how easily you slip into thoughts about excluding people due to competition for resources? The level of immigration is the biggest threat to the colour-blind (or anything-blind) society you want to protect.

    We can never build enough for 'everyone' if 'everyone' continues to expand at such a rapid rate.
    Yes, we can build enough for everyone.

    In many countries, around the world, population growth of 1% a year has happened. See Peru.

    Peru is one of the worst governed countries in the world. They managed, however, to not stop people building houses.

    What Peru can do, we can do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    Farooq said:

    I'm a Corbyn critic. Let's talk about 2017. It was a surprisingly good result. Well done him.
    But it's over. Corbyn lost twice. Most people think it's time to move on.
    People talk about 2017 and how Corbyn and Labour surprised many by doing well all the time. Sometimes they do it as a 'look how close he came, how terrifying' thing, other times a more sober just 'he got a lot more support than people expected' kind of thing, but his exceeding expectations is mentioned a lot, and it cannot all be put down to May doing badly - even if that is the case, the opponent needs to take advantage of that, and Corbyn did that successfully.

    It is simply a baldfaced lie that people do not mention it, so I don't know why that claim was made, what they don't do is pretend it was a victory of some kind or act as though him coming close in an election means the followup result should be disregarded.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617

    Congratulations to
    @lukeakehurst
    , Labour's candidate for North Durham!

    When SKS says country first which one is he referring to.

    This Candidate has a proud history as a paid lobbyist for one outside the UK

    What does this f*cker have to do with our part of the world. He's based in Oxford.

    I had a feeling we'd have him dumped on us. I did wonder if they'd get Simon Henig to stand.

    He has no link to the seat or this part of the world. The local party have been shat on and the constituents have been taken for granted. When Kevan Jones got the seat he had been based in the area and was on Durham Council.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    That's why I will Vote 💚
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    Andy_JS said:

    A place being litter free isn't always a good sign. It can mean a place is either a dictatorship or very poor. North Korea is apparently one of the most litter-free places in the world.
    I take the point that simply being free of litter doesn't mean a place will be nice, but assuming we don't find ourselves in North Korea it is better to have that than not.

    Of course no one ever admits to littering yet the stuff is everywhere, quite the mystery.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    eek said:

    Easy to do with desk based systems hard to do (until now) with meetings.

    Were I in charge of social care anywhere I would be seriously looking at Microsoft's co-pilot for teams (or similar meeting attending AI) to sit in meetings and generate the meeting summaries..
    It works reasonably well, with someone casting an eye over it afterwards obviously.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    That's why I will Vote 💚

    Looking forward to NHS brand Ibuprofen.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    Euch, imagining teaching kids not to be racist, what a terrible thing.
    There is a nuanced debate to be had about immigration that the shibboleths of both left and right prevent us from having.

    How much immigration is acceptable? 1m a year? 10m a year? 100m a year? Clearly even the most open borders of us accept there are limits to how many newcomers the country can - or should - absorb. So where are those limits, and how do we, as a society, define them?

    Is immigration is a benefit or a detriment to those already here. From an economic perspective, what happens if GDP rises, while GDP per capita falls? On whom does the burden fall hardest? Is "slightly higher GDP" an acceptable price to pay for "the young can't get on the housing ladder any more"?

    Then there is the question of values. Britain has become remarkably more liberal and tolerant in my lifetime. Which is a good thing. And people who come here to share those values and contribute - wonderful. But if you're, say, gay, or Jewish, or female, you might be looking at the values of recent immigrants from socially conservative countries with growing alarm. How do immigrants function in our society? Do their views become more moderate over time, or do they fundamentally alter the makeup of our country so as to make it less liberal, and less tolerant? I am not a cultural relativist. I prefer living in a liberal culture to a socially conservative one.

    But instead of a nuanced debate, we get "anyone who questions immigration is racist" vs "all immigrants are bad, send 'em to Rwanda".

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098
    eek said:

    Were I in charge of social care anywhere I would be seriously looking at Microsoft's co-pilot for teams (or similar meeting attending AI) to sit in meetings and generate the meeting summaries..

    I have been on some International calls recently where it can't decide if the transcription should be translated or just scribed phonetically.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    edited May 2024

    Bit weak on the environment.
    500,000 council homes built where exactly?

    Got to say it's great to see a manifesto where not a single thought has been given as to how do we achieve this / pay for it...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,340

    Yes, we can build enough for everyone.

    In many countries, around the world, population growth of 1% a year has happened. See Peru.

    Peru is one of the worst governed countries in the world. They managed, however, to not stop people building houses.

    What Peru can do, we can do.
    But we don't want to. Not really. The thing is, the things we do want are contradictory, so we all mentally push the unpleasant consequences into the "somebody else's problem" box.

    (Example- we could cut immigration without it borking health and social care. But the conseqences of doing so would be costs going up and having less of other work happening. Goods and services that help Britian pay its way, that sort of thing.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283

    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    That's why I will Vote 💚

    So, in effect, the Greens are Socialist Workers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Sean_F said:

    Has the Labour candidate been tweeting stuff about the Jews?

    He is a lovely chap.

    No idea why his own CLP hate him
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    Presumably plenty of WFHers are using a "bedroom" as an office. So it isn't going spare.
    It is from the point of view of the bedroom tax / under occupancy penalty rules.

    It's another disconnect between home-owners and the rest - if they were renting privately or in social housing, they'd have their benefits cut.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    TOPPING said:

    Looking forward to NHS brand Ibuprofen.
    4 & 5, in combination, would simply end a rather large chunk of jobs in the U.K.

    Assuming a £12k UBI, that’s £40k a year for the lowest paid job.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    AlsoLei said:

    It is from the point of view of the bedroom tax / under occupancy penalty rules.

    It's another disconnect between home-owners and the rest - if they were renting privately or in social housing, they'd have their benefits cut.
    I doubt that many people whose house is paid for through benefits / universal credit work from home...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Sunil, Anabobazina, Mexican Pete are SKS fans. None of them voted Lab in 2017/ 2019

    I have yet to meet a Corbyn critic who mentions 2017

    Probably due to the fact they would love to forget the biggest swing to Lab since WW2
    Fake news.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    That's why I will Vote 💚

    Any indication of a fully costed manifesto, otherwise not a serious party. I think there is a great debate to be had about UBI. I'm all in favour of simplifying how we support those in society who cannot work without endless checks and scrutiny. But what does renationalising the NHS mean? Seriously? Are the 500,000 council homes new builds (if so, at what cost and by whom)?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    No but I will be surprised to see it continue in 2025

    TSE has a FT job and is doing a wonderful job on here since Mike was unable to continue but i cant see how he could do that long term.

    Hope i am wrong

    Perhaps you could step up rather than taking it for granted
    A site where the organisers have access to embargoed polls and economic figures is not going to run out of volunteers...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145
    Sean_F said:

    Has the Labour candidate been tweeting stuff about the Jews?
    Erm, yes, because the Labour candidate was (and maybe still is) director of a lobby group called We Believe in Israel. Ironic the NEC should block Faiza Shaheen for liking tweets about the Israel lobby on the same day as selecting someone who lobbies for Israel as his day job.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Luke Akehurst deleted over 1,500 tweets in the run up to being announced as a Labour PPC.

    Fortunately, wayback machine exists and has them archived.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20240000000000*/Twitter.com/lukeakehurst
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    kyf_100 said:

    There is a nuanced debate to be had about immigration that the shibboleths of both left and right prevent us from having.

    How much immigration is acceptable? 1m a year? 10m a year? 100m a year? Clearly even the most open borders of us accept there are limits to how many newcomers the country can - or should - absorb. So where are those limits, and how do we, as a society, define them?

    Is immigration is a benefit or a detriment to those already here. From an economic perspective, what happens if GDP rises, while GDP per capita falls? On whom does the burden fall hardest? Is "slightly higher GDP" an acceptable price to pay for "the young can't get on the housing ladder any more"?

    Then there is the question of values. Britain has become remarkably more liberal and tolerant in my lifetime. Which is a good thing. And people who come here to share those values and contribute - wonderful. But if you're, say, gay, or Jewish, or female, you might be looking at the values of recent immigrants from socially conservative countries with growing alarm. How do immigrants function in our society? Do their views become more moderate over time, or do they fundamentally alter the makeup of our country so as to make it less liberal, and less tolerant? I am not a cultural relativist. I prefer living in a liberal culture to a socially conservative one.

    But instead of a nuanced debate, we get "anyone who questions immigration is racist" vs "all immigrants are bad, send 'em to Rwanda".

    One comic effect of Mugabe was that, when he threw the white farmers off the land, illegally*, the Left in the U.K. discovered immigrants/refugees they didn’t like.

    *It was illegal according to the judges on the Zimbabwean Supreme Court. All appointed post independence, by the government of one Robert Mugabe.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited May 2024
    Taz said:

    Oh F***. This twat is going to be my MP.

    Really disappointed how this has panned out. This guy just parachuted into our seat. Kevan Jones did stuff and helped people out locally.

    What will this guy do for us. F*ck him and F*ck labour for treating us like this. Always voted for Kevan Jones. He's a great local MP and his twitter feed and facebook feed is not full of recycled party messages.

    Definitely not voting now.
    In the least surprising news of the day, the “Lifelong Labour Voter” finds yet another reason not to vote Labour in yet another election.

    Funny old world.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Carnyx said:

    Be fair to him, he's probably sitting in the front seat of his agent's car creeping along behind a tractor and spray gear en route to his next task to work through the houses of Foggieloan (pop: 987).
    I have various things that take my time:
    1) Food industry consultant with a client where I am at the heart of a big project which goes live in week 25.
    2) YouTuber with commitments to sponsors
    3) Retail business owner with various tasks
    4) Wife, kids, elderly mother

    Sunak said we could all have our summer holidays - bloody liar. Ours in Scotland starts the weekend before the election - a lot of people will go away.

    So campaigning is evenings & weekends until the immediate build up to polling day. Have a load of social media films ready to roll and a campaign launch to do this weekend. But during the week I'm doing what I was already doing. At least I am at my desk this week - have got multiple trips away in the coming weeks...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    edited May 2024

    Sunil, Anabobazina, Mexican Pete are SKS fans. None of them voted Lab in 2017/ 2019

    I have yet to meet a Corbyn critic who mentions 2017

    Probably due to the fact they would love to forget the biggest swing to Lab since WW2
    I'll break your duck. I'm a Corbyn critic. He lost in 2017 and gave us the hell of the Tories propped up by the DUP and years of paralysis.

    Despite his losing in 2017, you let him hang on to lose even worse in 2019. He's a serial loser. He was on the losing side in 2016 (although he was probably secretly on the winning one), he was on the losing side in 2017 and in 2019.

    The basic point of politics is the ability to win more votes than your opponent. Theresa May got more votes than your guy in 2017. Boris Johnson got more in 2019. Corbyn's leadership was a fucking disaster for Labour and the country. And you defend the amoral son of a bitch.

    Starmer is a boring man with an annoying adenodal voice who has probably tacked too far to the centre. But on current evidence it looks like he will get this bunch of corrupt no-marks out of office. If he does he has my thanks. Corbyn let them stay.

    2017 was not a good night for Labour or the country. The fact you think it was speaks volumes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819

    Yes, we can build enough for everyone.

    In many countries, around the world, population growth of 1% a year has happened. See Peru.

    Peru is one of the worst governed countries in the world. They managed, however, to not stop people building houses.

    What Peru can do, we can do.
    What normally happens with developing countries is that their fertility rate declines and the population stabilises.

    It's sheer madness to impose baby-boom levels of population growth year after year through immigration.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    eek said:

    500,000 council homes built where exactly?

    Got to say it's great to see a manifesto where not a single thought has been given as to how do we achieve this / pay for it...
    The £16 ph min wage on top of UBI is err, interesting.

    It really is young socialist workers manifesto, not a green party manifesto. Sad.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617

    My dad (turns 85 tomorrow) had had a new knee and a new hip in the last 18 months, both done privately. Cost 15 grand each time. He can afford it and he might as well spend the money to improve his quality of life in whatever he has left (hopefully plenty of years)*. I support any boomer who is well off doing the same, rather than wait for the NHS.

    *He said recently that he would like to see my son get married, which might be touch ambitious as the poor lad is only 16 months, but hey. Gotta have a dream!
    My mum had 2 cataract operations.

    One done on the NHS. The other privately to avoid the wait. Both by the same Doctor.

    NHS has never dealt with - what do you call it, double standard? dilemma? - since 1947.

    As per often in this country we have a fudge, but it's not clear whether an alternative would be better.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,561

    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    That's why I will Vote 💚

    Tempting, for sure!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited May 2024
    Astonishing story.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpegg27g74do

    "British Museum gems for sale on eBay - how a theft was exposed

    Reporting by Katie Razzall, Larissa Kennelly and Darin Graham"
  • PJHPJH Posts: 813

    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    That's why I will Vote 💚

    Nothing on the environment? I was thinking of voting Green but that just seems like a bog standard left wing socialist wish list, which I won't vote for.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784

    I have various things that take my time:
    1) Food industry consultant with a client where I am at the heart of a big project which goes live in week 25.
    2) YouTuber with commitments to sponsors
    3) Retail business owner with various tasks
    4) Wife, kids, elderly mother

    Sunak said we could all have our summer holidays - bloody liar. Ours in Scotland starts the weekend before the election - a lot of people will go away.

    So campaigning is evenings & weekends until the immediate build up to polling day. Have a load of social media films ready to roll and a campaign launch to do this weekend. But during the week I'm doing what I was already doing. At least I am at my desk this week - have got multiple trips away in the coming weeks...
    if you have all that on your plate, what the hell do you want to be an MP for ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492

    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    That's why I will Vote 💚

    I'd agree with the last, but that is only one out of ten.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    But we don't want to. Not really. The thing is, the things we do want are contradictory, so we all mentally push the unpleasant consequences into the "somebody else's problem" box.

    (Example- we could cut immigration without it borking health and social care. But the conseqences of doing so would be costs going up and having less of other work happening. Goods and services that help Britian pay its way, that sort of thing.)
    Absolutely. There is a solid coalition of interests across the political and social spectrum against building more. For every location in the country.

    We could increase productivity. But that requires systematic investment in equipment and training.

    A relative runs a building business. He purchased an electric digger for digging basements. Does the work the work of 6 for the cost of 2 etc.

    He was roundly condemned as foolish by a number of his peers. “That’s not how things are done…”
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617

    In the least surprising news of the day, the “Lifelong Labour Voter” finds another reason not to vote Labour in yet another election.

    Funny old world.
    The least surprising news of the day id you posting like a complete twat.

    Boulay, a week or so ago, commented on one of your witless posts with a rather acerbic but well measured critique. You should read it and digest it.

    I may vote for the Green candidate as they have a hoopy name.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Taz said:

    Oh F***. This twat is going to be my MP.

    Really disappointed how this has panned out. This guy just parachuted into our seat. Kevan Jones did stuff and helped people out locally.

    What will this guy do for us. F*ck him and F*ck labour for treating us like this. Always voted for Kevan Jones. He's a great local MP and his twitter feed and facebook feed is not full of recycled party messages.

    Definitely not voting now.
    "Karl Hansen
    @karl_fh
    ·
    1h
    Luke Akehurst believes the Vietnam War was good and should have continued. Only a few dozen weirdos in Britain hold opinions like this. Unfortunately for us, they run the Labour Party and will soon run the country.
    Quote
    Luke Akehurst
    @lukeakehurst
    ·
    Feb 11, 2020
    Replying to @caibarhaw @eli_edwards and 4 others
    It was Nixon who ended the Vietnam war and betrayed the South Vietnamese..."

    https://x.com/karl_fh/status/1796120998762181011
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617

    Erm, yes, because the Labour candidate was (and maybe still is) director of a lobby group called We Believe in Israel. Ironic the NEC should block Faiza Shaheen for liking tweets about the Israel lobby on the same day as selecting someone who lobbies for Israel as his day job.
    If they were going to impose a candidate on our area they could have, at least, had the decency to pick someone local with some local links or background rather than just take us for granted.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Any indication of a fully costed manifesto, otherwise not a serious party. I think there is a great debate to be had about UBI. I'm all in favour of simplifying how we support those in society who cannot work without endless checks and scrutiny. But what does renationalising the NHS mean? Seriously? Are the 500,000 council homes new builds (if so, at what cost and by whom)?
    Are you saying the $70bn wealth tax is not enough?

    UBI obviously means further tax changes and saving in benefits too

    Anyway both main Parties are refusing to say where their austerity cuts will hit so some of us prefer a progressive alternative
  • Sandpit said:

    It’s still rather astonishing that the young can’t see the correlation between population increases and cost of housing increases.
    Because it doesn't exist. The problem is a lack of construction. We need construction even if population level is stable due to ageing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited May 2024
    Taz said:

    The least surprising news of the day id you posting like a complete twat.

    Boulay, a week or so ago, commented on one of your witless posts with a rather acerbic but well measured critique. You should read it and digest it.

    I may vote for the Green candidate as they have a hoopy name.
    Thank you for your measured and not at all defensive and flustered response.

    Lol.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617
    Andy_JS said:

    "Karl Hansen
    @karl_fh
    ·
    1h
    Luke Akehurst believes the Vietnam War was good and should have continued. Only a few dozen weirdos in Britain hold opinions like this. Unfortunately for us, they run the Labour Party and will soon run the country.
    Quote
    Luke Akehurst
    @lukeakehurst
    ·
    Feb 11, 2020
    Replying to @caibarhaw @eli_edwards and 4 others
    It was Nixon who ended the Vietnam war and betrayed the South Vietnamese..."

    https://x.com/karl_fh/status/1796120998762181011
    I do hope we do not end up overrun with Palestinian protesters as a consequence of this during the campaign.

    It is just disgraceful how we are taken for granted like this. Utterly brazen.

    Kevan Jones told me on Facebook he was standing again and happy to do so. I do hope his standing down was not to enable this piece of crap to stand here. I didn't think it was due to his need for an operation. Would feel very let down if it was.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798
    kle4 said:

    I take the point that simply being free of litter doesn't mean a place will be nice, but assuming we don't find ourselves in North Korea it is better to have that than not.

    Of course no one ever admits to littering yet the stuff is everywhere, quite the mystery.
    No-one admits to it, yet it's sadly not uncommon to see people littering. It properly gets my goat, and I'm at risk of getting myself punched one day when challenging it.

    That said, I reckon at least 50% of litter is there through unwitting carelessness - the inadvertently dropped wrapper from the pocket when extracting something else; the stuff falling out of the overly-full litter bin, and so on.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Fake news.
    Who did you vote for?

    Are you a hypocrite?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    Camelot said:

    Have you been to Peru. Massive shanty towns and desperate povery all round Lima. Is this what you want for the uk.
    Yes, I have. Spent a fair bit of time there.

    We are building a bit over 200K properties a year in the U.K.

    Net immigration is 685k

    Number of families etc is not easy to find, but that’s probably 400k of properties required. Say.

    So if we double property construction, we keep up. Treble it and we start to deal with the backlog.

    That isn’t impossible.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617

    Thank you for your measured and not at all defensive and flustered response.

    Lol.
    TRUSS
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    if you have all that on your plate, what the hell do you want to be an MP for ?
    A genuine sense of public service.
This discussion has been closed.