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Your morning must read – politicalbetting.com
Your morning must read – politicalbetting.com
Thought it would be useful to do a quick explainer of how our voting intent methodology works and how it’s changed. There’s a full article here from the time (https://t.co/aaqBZHkVMp) but to explain it simply…
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LOL.
On the idea that Labour voting intention is skin deep, check this out:
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1796075704292905149
Based on current vote intention, Tory and Labour voters have exactly the same sentiments towards a Tory or Labour victory, respectively. +31/-30.
What's interesting is that levels of unhappiness for a Trump victory are not miles apart (-16/-23). But Reform voters (+7) would actually welcome it.
The remaining Conservative voters are still "normal", in that they exist in a world where Trump winning is a bad thing. On that measure, even current Conservative voters are over 3 times closer along the political spectrum to Labour than they are to Reform.
It does mean however that if Labour get a landslide this time they could lose it all in the subsequent election.
It would be too cynical, of course, to suggest that he's setting an impossible target for Reeves.
Worth posting the last Opinium poll
Labour leads by 14 points
Labour: 41%
Conservatives: 27%
Reform UK: 10%
Lib Dems: 10%
Green: 7%
SNP: 2%
Others: 1%
1,464 respondents
Now while the Tory figure here is high it's the Labour figure that is low.
But it still gives Labour a 200 seat majority and puts the Tories on a far worse result than 97 albeit with 160 seats they could rebuild from there.
Some voters and their voting intention is being significantly uprated.
Which ones?
I do not think for one minute that Labour will win by anything like 20 points. I am a very firm believer in the maxim that the worst poll for Labour is the most accurate because that's generally how it has turned out in the past. The final JLP and Opinium polls are very likely to be the most accurate. However, I also think that tactical voting means a huge poll lead may not be as necessary as it may otherwise have been. We will have to see.
So far, there's nothing in either campaign that makes me think the Tories can win. It's very noticeable what they are not talking about - the NHS, the cost of living, public services, transport, housing etc. VAT on schools, national service, small bungs to pensioners etc is core vote stuff.
Basically, I remain where I have been all along - the most important result is that this destructive, incompetent government loses power. Anything else is a bonus.
And Government procurement is crap at that and then brings in crap firms who rarely know what new technology can do..
She will simply pass lots more pointless laws and gimmicks, raise taxes to pay for them and do nothing to help the real economy.
Nick Robinson nailing Jeremy Hunt on VAT.
"Which party put VAT up to 15%? Which party put it up 17.5%? And which party increased it to 20%?
"Every increase to VAT there's been in your political lifetime - Thatcher, Major and Cameron - were increased by Conservatives govts."
Im afraid its send some sacred cows to the abbatoir and they are all afraid to do it.
https://x.com/jonstewart/status/1795993805411229746?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Great skit btw.
Even 2019 was only 68%
if this election is going to get a 70%+ turnout the Tories are going to be in for a total kicking...
If savings through efficiency were easy, it ought to be possible to point to some council somewhere that has been able to respond to austerity without cutting many activities or enshittifying what remains.
Of course it's right to keep an eye open for where things can be made to work better more cheaply. But I'd like to see some evidence that the reform fairy can save us from the consequences of decades of not really paying as much tax as we should have for the things we expect the state to do.
Pollsters generally overestimate turnout.
Remember, the pay/conditions/pension package for public sector workers already makes it difficult to recruit and retain staff.
Against which: 1997.
Efficiency improvements means investment in training and in technology - something Governments are not that great at because they can't justify the money involved.
Everything tells me that the driver to vote this election won't be to keep Rishi in power it will be to remove him and the Tory party as far as possible... So the incentive to vote is going to be Labour / Lib Dem voters not Tories....
No ge turnout over 70% this century
I would be truly gutted if he wasn't a Labour candidate.
Two takeaways
(1) “WTF did you call yourself ‘DougSeal’?”
and
(2) “They all really hate the Labour Party don’t they?”.
There you have it. Mrs Seal has spoken. I have a stupid username and the site breaks rightwards in general.
Still, it was 77% or so in 1992 - but well below that in 1997.
So then the question becomes which part of the 78% in the opinion poll who claim that they are voting won't turn out and actually vote and there both Labour / Tories currently have a problem, Labour because it looks like your vote won't matter (they are going to win by miles) and Tories again because they are going to lose by miles.
Opinium seem to be different which I assume is why their respondent figures end up being 1500 rather than 2000...
(that's my quota)
Edit: No personal implications, I hasten to add, apologies. Just the pinniped side.
https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/
Thanks,
DC
It's a bit of a fail for the polling cos that they have not detected and compensated for the error
It's a damage limitation strategy rather than a winning strategy. They don't need to answer the question whether people trust Sunak more if no-one thinks Sunak will still be around come July. And stay away from policy discussions. It just reminds people how bad the Conservatives have been.
Chisinău had some severely bad luck in the war. What the fighting didn’t destroy was done for by a ruinous earthquake in 1940, as my hosts did not hesitate to remind me when talking about architecture.
Or at least good enough for my taste.
The relevant information is how much does the wine cost relative to earnings.
In the UK I can buy a bottle of wine I like for about ten minutes work.
You can write computer software to improve social care work, but that's incredibly expensive both up front and (nowadays) monthly on top but the efficiency is on the edges, the meetings themselves are required and can't be shortened (well they could be but that way leads to deaths).
Basically a lot of the public sector can only be improved at the edges and a lot of other ones will seem counter intuitive - for instance it makes sense that a consultant does their own paper work in a business consultancy, it makes zero sense when a consultant does it at a hospital, they could see another couple of patients in that time.
Though likely with losses among some jobs.
https://x.com/rachaelburford/status/1795932670024614028?s=61
How happy or sad would the average person be if Labour win the election? About as happy as if someone gave them tickets to Glastonbury according to our
@moreincommon_
poll for
@TheNewsAgents
but not quite as happy as if England win the Euros or finding a £5 note on the street.
At some point those workers still increasing their productivity wonder why they should do so if the gains from their extra productivity are going predominantly to the government or to the executive oligarchy instead of themselves.
And that's just Microsoft attaching their existing model to Sainsbury's data - it won't be sharing it elsewhere afterwards, it's a clone that would rapidly be Sainsbury's specific and not accessible to anyone else...
A narrowing of the gap since the last general election but the ANC still in front
"South Africa election results: Counting under way after pivotal poll - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjll8nr6962o
The new obesity drugs, for example, are possibly going to be more widely prescribed, and have far greater benefits, than statins. The potential savings over the next decade or so on treatment of chronic ill health are massive.
It's not a given (not enough long term data yet), but it's a possibility.
Another example is scanners which don't require cryogenic magnets, so will be an order of magnitude cheaper than existing systems.
It won't bail out the next Parliament's finances, but it might so so for the one after.
I don't see why it can't be done in-house.
Any pitch he makes now just isn't going to be heard, even if it's a sensible one.
Ayanda Hlekwane, one of South Africa's "born-free" generation, meaning he was born after 1994, said despite having three degrees he still doesn't have a job.
“I’m working on my PhD proposal so that I go back to study in case I don’t get a job,” he tells the BBC in Durban.
Well despite all his three degrees and PhD proposal he hasn't learnt the law of diminishing returns.
High productivity at HMRC = small business spending hours on the phone talking to AI bot that takes 20x as long
High productivity in NHS = a reduction in elective surgeries that sees people working in the trades waiting years for an operation (or not getting one at all)
High productivity in education = more left behind children who end up with criminal records 10 year down the line
Is it the emperor or I who have no clothes?
DVLA is an example where improvements could be made but a lot has already been done and what is left is weird areas - where things are manual for reasons that don't make sense until you get into the weeds. 1 example is change of address where the driving license is often the first document updating placing the most awkward checks on the DVLA...
https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/
vs 30 day polling ave
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election#Opinion_polls
Results (Partial)
ANC 42.6%
DA 25.8%
EFF 8.5%
MK 7.9%
PA 4.7%
IFP 1.7%
30 day polling ave
ANC 42.1%
DA 22.4%
EFF 9.9%
MKP 11.6%
PA 0% ?
IFP 3.7%
Polls look reasonably close for the main parties, partial results though so there may well be some shuffling as more regional results come in.
But for common-ish diseases, I'd have thought that the NHS would have enough.
Are patients not also more likely to agree to share their data with 'Our NHS' than GlobalCorp AI?
If it's really over 75%, then I'm going to be very happy indeed about the election result. Whoever wins.