One week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majority

Second - quite possibly like the Lib Dems.

Betting markets don't get everything right. But most paths to them being wrong here rely on a lot of things going wrong for Labour.

https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795825530454900760?s=19

Fpt. Everyone wants more for the wrinklies
Expect more announcements for the grey vote

Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.

The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

ToryJim said:

Well nothing has happened to change the structure of the campaign so unsurprising that Labour still looks good for a majority.

The polling says it so the betting follows

kle4 said:

Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.

That great legal tradition of I reckon
They could also of course infer that as Cohen is a convicted liar that he cannot be trusted, its double edged

dixiedean said:

No surprise really. Not much has changed.
But I think this is one where folk made up their minds quite some time ago. The quote from Callaghan is relevant.
The only real questions how many ex-Tory don't knows will actually vote, and in what proportion they vote Conservative. And how much will Reform and Greens get squeezed.

But your typical Reform voter voted Brexit in 2019 - I suspect there is no where near as many Reform votes to squeeze as some on here believe...

HYUFD said:

Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

All true. The days when we were pondering whether Labour could deny the Tories a further majority seem and awful long time ago, but it was less than 2 years

wooliedyed said:

kle4 said:

Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.

That great legal tradition of I reckon
They could also of course infer that as Cohen is a convicted liar that he cannot be trusted, its double edged

That's why they spent 4 weeks corroborating almost everything he said with other witnesses, and even to prove he had phone calls when he said he did, so the case is not reliant on believing him.

Still a few parts of which he is the only witness (as the other person was the Trump CFO who has already gone to prison twice without flipping on Donald) though, so it is the main focus of the defense case for reasonable doubt.

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795825530454900760?s=19

Fpt. Everyone wants more for the wrinklies
Expect more announcements for the grey vote

Not really - everyone will know a pensioner or 2 who is on the basic state pension and not much more. We want those people to have more.

The pensioners who go on 5 cruises a year on the other hand....

And yet HMG going on for decades about pay x NI = get y SP has had its effect.

If I were Big Pension plc who had marketed a guaranteed index linked pension [not even triple lock] and wrote to a customer of 40 years saying that we were cutting the pension by 20% just because we felt like it they'd have us in court.

HMG is seen as proposing to do that (because of the NI cut).

That's exactly the thinking the vast majority of the public have about the SP, for themselves and for granny.

Doesn't matter if they have other pensions - they've been made to pay NI. At a higher rate for higher incomes, too. And have to pay tax on the whole income at present.

(You know, and I know, but that's the way it looks. Which means alot in politics.)

megasaur said:

The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

The Abbott spat has the potential to knock maybe as much as 2% off the Labour vote over the nation but that loss will be concentrated in some safe Labour seats so not cost Labour a single seat. For this election Starmer won't care about Hackney North and Stoke Newington having a 20,000 majority instead of 36,000. The question is will Starmer care to woo back the angry left after the election because he might need them next time.

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.

On which point.
I notice the Tory media and Party have gone quiet on the "Labour needs a 13% lead to win a majority".

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...

They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...

I take it that choice isn't a year in the Army or unpaid weekend work.

Benpointer said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

That's another one Harry Cole forgot to ramp

Aside from the YouGov everything is just noise movement at the moment, yougov is pushing the limits of MoE

megasaur said:

The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

My guess is that it will leave more of a post-election party management issue than something during the election itself.

Labour are usually pretty disciplined and have their eye on the prize now. This stuff can wait.

As others have noted, the salience of Palestine as an issue is spiky - it’s either really important (for different reasons, to different groups), or pretty irrelevant (to, I suspect, most people).

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...

They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day

Why? I suspect a DK/DK ends up sitting the election out - remember not everyone will vote we aren't Australia.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...

They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day

You're right in so far as they could go to bed, or go and sit on the sofa, or go into the garden, or go and do some shopping etc etc. I hope you weren't saying that they would no doubt go and vote, because I think there's a great deal of doubt about that and I'd have to disagree with you.

Well they are no different to the Don't knows in any poll (aside from those polls that assign them by past vote). Of course some may not bother but some will vote and thus will go 'somewhere'

Barring a major gaffe or huge policy statement, the movers will be tv debates and manifestos.

Abbott etc is political nerd stuff and doesn’t really cut through imo. The baseline tone has been set.

kle4 said:

Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.

In English law a judge can invite the jury if it wishes to draw inferences from the failure of the defendant to give evidence. And in recent years they can be told they can draw inferences from failure to answer (fully or at all) police questions.

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...

They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day

Why? I suspect a DK/DK ends up sitting the election out - remember not everyone will vote we aren't Australia.

Some people decide late on. That's hardly an earth shattering concept. The DK/DKs with MiC have answered 'very likely to vote', so one should assume a lot of them will vote

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...

Still to come: in-fighting over who should be blamed for the state of the campaign, leading into a wider punch-up as the next leadership contest starts in earnest....

Leon said:

Dumbosaurus said:

Leon said:

Jesus tittyfucking Christ on a crouton what am I going to do in Moldova for EIGHT DAYS

(FPT) Have you ever been to the gypsy palaces in Soroca? The biggest one is crazy - larger than a "real" palace.

I haven’t. Thank you! All ideas welcome

Modzimirsk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mileștii_Mici_(winery) Once you go in....

Diane Abbott anecdote:

Wor Lass once spotted Ms Abbott in the cafe at John Lewis in Sloane Square, and went over to say hello to her. The response was anything but warm and friendly.

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.

On which point.
I notice the Tory media and Party have gone quiet on the "Labour needs a 13% lead to win a majority".

Yes. That thought would make a few million former Tory voters vote Labour twice just to make sure.

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ghedebrav said:

Barring a major gaffe or huge policy statement, the movers will be tv debates and manifestos.

Abbott etc is political nerd stuff and doesn’t really cut through imo. The baseline tone has been set.

First one is 9.00pm Tuesday 4th June on ITV

And there won't be many because SKS doesn't see the point...

BBC and Sky apparently

megasaur said:

The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

She has been a fairly consistent and disloyal critic of SKS for years so I can see why he wants her outside the tent pissing herself.

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.

Movement within the MoE is not movement (either way), its noise

HYUFD said:

Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

Even in the unlikely event of the Tories getting most seats (say 300), the other parties would line up to boot Sunak out of Downing Street.

DM_Andy said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.

I suspect that Starmer would prefer a 400 member PLP to a 500 one, imagine what undervetted clunkers are standing in Broxbourne, Leicestershire South, Tunbridge Wells (apologies if you are the Labour candidate for any of those fine constituencies). Though it is better to aim for 500 and get 400 than aim for 400 and get 340.

I think his best majority would be between 80 and 100

Anything more could be difficult to control as witnessed in the conservative party’s factions

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

No

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amazing

Just had a text from my daughter in law on route to Vancouver saying they have a medical emergency on board ( between Scotland and Iceland) and not sure if they will have to divert

I didn't know you could what's app from an in flight aircraft

Satellite provided internet (presented as WiFi) on many airlines now.

Mostly Starlink (SpaceX)

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

By what mechanism? How would that work? I can't see it.

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).

Gardenwalker said:

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).

This morning I felt that he'd played a bit of a blinder. He signalled that he didn't want her, yet allowed her to stand, satisfying all parties. I've been very busy so I concede that the story may not have developed to his advantage.

Benpointer said:

wooliedyed said:

Benpointer said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...

They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day

In fact many will probably go nowhere come polling day - at least not to a polling station.

Nonsense. They are those that respond 'highly likely to votes but are undecided even after a second bite.
They are no more likely to stay home than the DKs discarded by YouGov or Redfield etc

In the MiC tables 12% say they will not vote and 16% say 'Don't know'. Unless you are expecting an 88% turnout, I'd hazard a guess that most of those DKs won't vote on polling day.

I'd say they are as likely to vote as someone who has picked a horse. Some people do not decide until late on. The high 'certainty' factor makes those that name a party just as likely to be eventually non voters as the overall 'certainty' is way above expectations (as it always is in polling)

Big_G_NorthWales said:

carnforth said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response

If the Tories really want a Trump-style moniker for Starmer, "Shifty Starmer" is a hell of lot better than "Sleepy Starmer".

I have not seen that side of him before today

The Left of the Labour party have (thankfully for the rest of us).

...

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

Does Starmer have a race problem? He wants to get rid of the first black woman MP and the first PM of Indian heritage.

Mish would agree with you on both counts.

Gardenwalker said:

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).

I mean like all PB old white blokes I like Abbott. And not just for comedy value.

But surely it is up to the leader of the party to determine who he does or does not want representing the party. That said, his big error is not to say he does or he doesn't. He seems incapable of making a decision. I mean this is perfectly understandable in a GE run-up don't frighten the horses kind of way but is simply not sustainable in the longer term (and by that I mean pre-July 4th longer term).

rcs1000 said:

I don't think 89% is is "utterly convinced". Remain was an 85% chance on the eve of counting. And Trump in 2016 probably wasn't that different.

A Labour win remains the overwhelming favorite, but 1-in-10 shots win all the time. (About one in every eleven times or so.)

True, though in this case the 1 in 10 shot is "no overall majority" which would probably still mean a Labour-led government.

Gardenwalker said:

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).

If Starmer lets Mrs Entitled -Bonkers stand, he really does have poor judgement.

It is confected nonsense by the media, but it has definitely derailed Starmer. Good on the BBC, good on Victoria Derbyshire.

carnforth said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response

If the Tories really want a Trump-style moniker for Starmer, "Shifty Starmer" is a hell of lot better than "Sleepy Starmer".

Keir Hardly

Mexicanpete said:

On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

Not sure Mish has a leg to stand on there given his views on antisemitism. He opposed the EHRC report's findings.

89% is high but I continue to wonder why we on PB, who fight like cats in a sack about every nuance of possible political outcome, take "the betting markets" as somehow better informed.

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.

It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.

wooliedyed said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.

Movement within the MoE is not movement (either way), its noise

However virtually all movement does occur within MoE. Something like 99% of all polls move within MoE, even when changes are happening.

A 10 point swing between the parties can still be within MoE.

Need to look at the trend rather than just individual polls to separate out the noise.