Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Are we expecting any more polls this evening?
Thought Survation, DeltaPoll and Savanta might all drop one tonight?0 -
Me, as I posted last nightkle4 said:So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
I think I shall put my name forward to become a Tory MP.
2024 - Become MP
2027 - Become Leader of His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition
2029 - Become PM after winning a landslide at the general election
I have it all mapped out.1 -
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.HYUFD said:
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the SolentSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.FrancisUrquhart said:
e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's planeAlanbrooke said:
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.RochdalePioneers said:On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known.
See also Denis Healey.6 -
...
Why was Surbiton cancelled?BartholomewRoberts said:
It looks amusing how many banned people there are on that one page alone. JamesKelly, TGOHF, surbiton, richardDodd and Ishmael. Quite a flashback.viewcode said:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/65030#Comment_65030Fairliered said:
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Fairliered said:
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.
Labour 33%
SNP 27%
Cons 16%
Lib Dems 12%
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.0 -
Yep, that's why unlike other PBers I don't post them.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be idiotic, a subsample of around 60 is about as accurate as an American war movie.Theuniondivvie said:..
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?Heathener said:
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion pollsClutch_Brompton said:Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.0 -
What about the Ridley Scott Napoleon movie? Am I to believe the Emperor did not charge the British lines on horseback?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be idiotic, a subsample of around 60 is about as accurate as an American war movie.Theuniondivvie said:..
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?Heathener said:
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion pollsClutch_Brompton said:Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.1 -
It’s Labour not SKS so I’ve corrected it for you. We vote for constituency MPs. It’s not a Presidency.bigjohnowls said:
Todays Opiniumbigjohnowls said:
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.
LABOUR maj 186
National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Almost the same as my prediction the other day.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Seats
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab Majority 1850 -
I quite Battery Horse rather than Horse Battery.bigjohnowls said:
IsamBatteryCorrectHorse said:Beyond his Lordship @CorrectHorseBattery, who do PBers want back the most?
It's about companies of artillery, rather than duracell bunnies.
But I'm biased as a relative used to live above the horses in the Royal Mews *.
* GG has not been let in.1 -
The thing is I can see the Tories getting 30% or 20% and at 20% you may be able to count the seats won on 2 handsCasino_Royale said:
I could see Labour getting anything between 39% and 49%.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike had two golden rulesBatteryCorrectHorse said:
???Heathener said:
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion pollsClutch_Brompton said:Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
1) Any poll you don't like is clearly an outlier
2) The most accurate poll is the one which has Labour doing worst (but Corbyn ruined that.)
I don't know which way, but I'd doubt the latter just because they find it harder to turn out their base, and will struggle to do so this time in some of their safer seats.1 -
No but I can come out with anti Manchester United stuff which will win them over.eek said:
So the people of Leeds want Leeds Utd to lose?TheScreamingEagles said:
I could win any seat in Leeds, between 2005 and 2011 I worked in Leeds city centre, I know my people.eek said:
You claimed you could win any seat in the country for the Tory party. So try for one in Leeds - cos I knew you were going to post thatTheScreamingEagles said:Can people not lose their shit tomorrow if boyhood Southampton fan Rishi Sunak is at the play-off final.
He will be in tune with the nation in wanting Dirty Leeds to lose.0 -
I thought this commenting system only went back to about 2016, not 2013.BartholomewRoberts said:
It looks amusing how many banned people there are on that one page alone. JamesKelly, TGOHF, surbiton, richardDodd and Ishmael. Quite a flashback.viewcode said:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/65030#Comment_65030Fairliered said:
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Fairliered said:
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.
Labour 33%
SNP 27%
Cons 16%
Lib Dems 12%
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.0 -
Kept on posting defamatory content.Mexicanpete said:...
Why was Surbiton cancelled?BartholomewRoberts said:
It looks amusing how many banned people there are on that one page alone. JamesKelly, TGOHF, surbiton, richardDodd and Ishmael. Quite a flashback.viewcode said:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/65030#Comment_65030Fairliered said:
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Fairliered said:
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.
Labour 33%
SNP 27%
Cons 16%
Lib Dems 12%
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.0 -
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO1 -
My pic of the day. Think ManU are a bit arse but I like Fergie.
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I like Sir Ridley a lot so we pretend his Napoleon film never happened.kle4 said:
What about the Ridley Scott Napoleon movie? Am I to believe the Emperor did not charge the British lines on horseback?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be idiotic, a subsample of around 60 is about as accurate as an American war movie.Theuniondivvie said:..
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?Heathener said:
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion pollsClutch_Brompton said:Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.1 -
Edit: When I wrote "OK" I really meant better than anticipated. Choose your seat wisely.Mexicanpete said:...
Go for it Casino.Casino_Royale said:I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?
Don't worry, I'm not going to.
The Conservatives are going to do OK. Pick the right seat and you'll be home and hosed.0 -
I kind of miss Tim and Plato. They were a bit like petrol and water but their battles were pretty fun...3
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Spoke to an old friend yesterday. He flagged up similar observations as you - in summary "what if you win?"Casino_Royale said:Thanks for the kind comments, but I'm not going to do it.
I have a demanding full-time job, a young family, and charity trustee responsibilities. I'm not very good at the small-p side of politics, and I have a thin skin. And I'm not travelling for a seat - local one is taken - because I think being an MP is a shit job with poor pay.
Even if none of that were true I'm not even sure my membership is still active yet alone am I on the approved parliamentary list.
However, I did successfully stand for election this year at my charity AGM, with a hustings in front of 200 or so people, which is something of a win and vaguely public service related.
Being an MP is a crazy job in 2024. 24 hour interaction where people expect instant response and absolutist answers. You'd have to be mad to want to become one!
Perhaps. But the opportunity to serve, to make a difference. To try...1 -
That’s about what I’m expecting too seats wise.Heathener said:
It’s Labour not SKS so I’ve corrected it for you. We vote for constituency MPs. It’s not a Presidency.bigjohnowls said:
Todays Opiniumbigjohnowls said:
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.
LABOUR maj 186
National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Almost the same as my prediction the other day.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Seats
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab Majority 1852 -
Socrates. A real gent and we saw eye to eye on most things. Disappeared long ago. Not banned, just slipped off the political coil.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Beyond his Lordship @CorrectHorseBattery, who do PBers want back the most?
Alistair Meeks. I disagreed with him on about 95% of matters but he had a depth of knowledge and a debating ability that was enviable. A massive asset to the site.
Welshowl - but mostly because he and I were at Uni together in Cardiff and it was nice chatting about old times.
And I would add Richard Nabavi, another very intelligent and measured poster who I have not seen around for quite a while. He is also about the only PBer I have ever had bets with. (I won one, he won the other, £50 each time to a charity of the others choice.)1 -
Get by I think is it not?viewcode said:
But it's hard to survive, when your arse is the size, of a small countr-eeeeSirNorfolkPassmore said:
On the National Express, there's a jolly hostess selling crisps and tea. She'll provide you with drinks and theatrical winks for a sky-high feeSeaShantyIrish2 said:
There's a semi-interesting quasi-connection between Rishi Sunak's campaign launch, and my own experience with National Express.Redditch said:
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.kle4 said:
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.Scott_xP said:Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
Because the last time I rode on a NE coach, from Golders Green bus terminal to STN during a rain storm, my luggage was thoughtfully place underneath a leak and was totally soaked when I arrived at the airport.0 -
Schrodinger's Winston Churchill did, however.Heathener said:
So he assures me.turbotubbs said:
Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?Heathener said:
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.Redditch said:
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.kle4 said:
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.Scott_xP said:Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.
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I guess in terms of house prices for the area, LD posters are in the highest postcodes on average, then Tory, then Green, then Labour, then SNP and Reform at the bottom? LDs winning here everywhere? Oh look, Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham, Cheltenham, Winchester, Esher and Walton etc. Reform winning here? Margate or Blackpool or Clacton or RotherhamBarnesian said:
Orange diamonds springing up all over Richmond Park and flyers flying out.Foxy said:First Anecdata: I've seen my first election signs. Orange diamonds up in Winchester and Romsey, both target areas.
Caroline Nokes flyer in my folks house in Romsey was multicoloured, almost rainbow, with lots about her and no mention of the Conservative Party on the front.
Still no mention in overheard conversations or even by my folks.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lnNv33UkH78NNhro0MNzILkhIqYkyYx5h9Et51OvkoY/edit?usp=sharing
EDIT: Where can you post an image and then link to it with the magic formula
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I thought he said 9%? But I agree on the value.bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO0 -
Deadline is a week on Friday, I guess even CCHQ have got a list of verified people ready they not going to start accepting walk-ups.Mexicanpete said:...
Go for it Casino.Casino_Royale said:I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?
Don't worry, I'm not going to.
The Conservatives are going to do OK. Pick the right seat and you'll be home and hosed.0 -
Unfortunately not, as you have to have already been on the CCHQ approved candidates list even to get on the imposed final 3 mass selections over the next fortnightCasino_Royale said:I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?
Don't worry, I'm not going to.1 -
Yes. She wasn't that old either - mid fifties?Heathener said:
Did someone say Plato had died? I mean the poster obviously not the other oneGIN1138 said:I kind of miss Tim and Plato. They were a bit like petrol and water but their battles were kind of fun...
Though on a point of pedantry I think 'the other one' died quite some time ago too.1 -
Re: my theory that Elon Musk = Henry Ford, wonder IF anyone will do for EM, what THIS song did for HF?
Lord Mr Ford - Jerry Reed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jOMcAlO7rQ
. . . A metal box with the polyglass wheel
The end result to a dream of Henry Ford
Well I've got a car that's mine alone
That me and the finance company own
A ready-made pile of manufactured grief
And if I ain't out of gas in the pouring rain
I'm a-changin' a flat in a hurricane . . . .
Lord Mr Ford, I just wish you could see
What you're simple horseless carriage has become
Well it seems your contribution to man
Got a little out of hand
Oh Lord Mr Ford what have you done?
SSI - Note that in USA it's been common for a LONG time, to interpret "FORD" logo on a vehicle as:
"Fix or Repair Daily"
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We have seen previous elections where the concept of UNS falls apart, and I expect this to be the same. The swing needed for Labour to win a majority of 1 is crazy. We all know that. And yet we're about to watch it happen.bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The joy of todays politics is that everything is possible.3 -
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko0 -
I try to come up with what I think are plausible estimates of vote shares and I end up with about ten per cent left over - the Tories have been monumentally awful, in so many ways, but Labour and Starmer look set to be the weakest winning Opposition ever, the Lib Dems are still suffering for the Coalition, the Greens seem to rile about nine-tenths of the electorate, and Farage rates Reforms chances so highly he's buggered off to America. And then there's the SNP, lol.Casino_Royale said:
I could see Labour getting anything between 39% and 49%.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike had two golden rulesBatteryCorrectHorse said:
???Heathener said:
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion pollsClutch_Brompton said:Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
1) Any poll you don't like is clearly an outlier
2) The most accurate poll is the one which has Labour doing worst (but Corbyn ruined that.)
I don't know which way, but I'd doubt the latter just because they find it harder to turn out their base, and will struggle to do so this time in some of their safer seats.
The shares will have to add up to 100% in the end, but it looks like a very low turnout to me.0 -
Sir Beer Korma!kle4 said:I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko0 -
I’m finding this one of the hardest elections to bet on at the moment. Anyone else?Richard_Tyndall said:
I thought he said 9%? But I agree on the value.bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
As others have mentioned, and @TSE wrote about, it wouldn’t take much to see dramatic seat share shifts.
1 -
It's not crazy. But it has only happened once since the war. Therefore, even allowing for what the polls say it would still be a very remarkable result.RochdalePioneers said:
We have seen previous elections where the concept of UNS falls apart, and I expect this to be the same. The swing needed for Labour to win a majority of 1 is crazy. We all know that. And yet we're about to watch it happen.bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The joy of todays politics is that everything is possible.1 -
Otherwise known as Tennents Lager! 🤮turbotubbs said:
When I worked in pubs it was the beer lost in the drip trays etc.megasaur said:
Ullage is fresh air. Not boilableturbotubbs said:
No ullage if you built the exact amount, as I suggested.Carnyx said:
Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.turbotubbs said:
When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*Heathener said:
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.Alanbrooke said:
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.Heathener said:A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
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The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.dixiedean said:
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.HYUFD said:
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the SolentSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.FrancisUrquhart said:
e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's planeAlanbrooke said:
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.RochdalePioneers said:On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known.
See also Denis Healey.2 -
Gosh that would be a turn up, labour leader and tory leader leave their wives and marrykle4 said:I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko2 -
That’s really sad. No great agePagan2 said:
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Memories of the war can still hang over politicians and their ideas today, albeit not necessarily in good ways.dixiedean said:
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.HYUFD said:
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the SolentSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.FrancisUrquhart said:
e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's planeAlanbrooke said:
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.RochdalePioneers said:On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known.
See also Denis Healey.0 -
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
Believe this is comment with respect to HMG's wartime "Mass Observation" program monitoring public opinion on the Home Front.MattW said:
Schrodinger's Winston Churchill did, however.Heathener said:
So he assures me.turbotubbs said:
Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?Heathener said:
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.Redditch said:
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.kle4 said:
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.Scott_xP said:Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.2 -
-
Dickson McCunn, the chief Gorbals Diehard.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
For a change on Friday evening, here's something to follow up the discussion of the role of the Public Schools in the 'British' polity.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/last-boy-to-be-beaten-at-eton1 -
I was expecting the Lib Dems to be challenging strongly in the North East. I hear they have a very good candidate.RochdalePioneers said:
Thats the planCicero said:
Also implies the Lib Dems will be challenging quite strongly the SNP in the Highlands and the Tories in the Norrh EastHYUFD said:
Would be lowest SNP share at Westminster in Scotland since 2010TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.
Labour 33%
SNP 27%
Cons 16%
Lib Dems 12%1 -
@michaelsavage
NEW: The blame game is already happening inside the Tory party over the early election and errors of the opening days.
Senior figures in No10 are being blamed by insiders for alleged "arrogance" in their approach that now risks making Sunak the "hapless" candidate.
Levido is said to have been the only real figure holding out for a later election. Other advisers around Sunak, incl ministers Dowden & Coutinho, were in the loop.
Insider: “It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise."
“These arrogant men and women from No 10 turn up and think they’re brilliant at politics...
“The problem is we’ve got a cycle now where he’s in danger of becoming hapless.”1 -
No chance imoJohnO said:
That’s about what I’m expecting too seats wise.Heathener said:
It’s Labour not SKS so I’ve corrected it for you. We vote for constituency MPs. It’s not a Presidency.bigjohnowls said:
Todays Opiniumbigjohnowls said:
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.
LABOUR maj 186
National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Almost the same as my prediction the other day.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Seats
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab Majority 185
Lab have a 50% chance of getting 326 imo
Lab 38
Con 33
Green 80 -
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
Wine Question:
Is Redbeard Bacchus 2020 any good? Keep or Drink?
(It was a free bonus.)0 -
Next poll that comes out will say Labour 20+% ahead! Yes?1
-
Isn't a leading SNP politician married to former leader of Labour party in Scotland?Pagan2 said:
Gosh that would be a turn up, labour leader and tory leader leave their wives and marrykle4 said:I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko1 -
I am not on the approved list of candidates for the party so can't stand anywhere unless as an Independent, which I won't be. Though we will have a new candidate in Epping Forest as Dame Eleanor is standing down (as there will also be in Harlow with Rob Halfon standing down)AlsoLei said:
I really hope that HYUFD is spending the weekend applying to everywhere within striking distance of Epping Forest!kle4 said:So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
1 -
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.0 -
They checked on your social media postings here?HYUFD said:
I am not on the approved list of candidates for the party so can't stand anywhere unless as an Independent, which I won't be. Though we will have a new candidate in Epping Forest as Dame Eleanor is standing down (as there will also be in Harlow with Rob Halfon standing down)AlsoLei said:
I really hope that HYUFD is spending the weekend applying to everywhere within striking distance of Epping Forest!kle4 said:So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
1 -
Becoming?Scott_xP said:@michaelsavage
NEW: The blame game is already happening inside the Tory party over the early election and errors of the opening days.
Senior figures in No10 are being blamed by insiders for alleged "arrogance" in their approach that now risks making Sunak the "hapless" candidate.
Levido is said to have been the only real figure holding out for a later election. Other advisers around Sunak, incl ministers Dowden & Coutinho, were in the loop.
Insider: “It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise."
“These arrogant men and women from No 10 turn up and think they’re brilliant at politics...
“The problem is we’ve got a cycle now where he’s in danger of becoming hapless.”1 -
SKS fans would have a lot to explain with that...bigjohnowls said:
No chance imoJohnO said:
That’s about what I’m expecting too seats wise.Heathener said:
It’s Labour not SKS so I’ve corrected it for you. We vote for constituency MPs. It’s not a Presidency.bigjohnowls said:
Todays Opiniumbigjohnowls said:
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.
LABOUR maj 186
National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Almost the same as my prediction the other day.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Seats
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab Majority 185
Lab have a 50% chance of getting 326 imo
Lab 38
Con 33
Green 80 -
If you really believe that’s true then you should be on the Spreads asap to make a fortune.bigjohnowls said:
No chance imoJohnO said:
That’s about what I’m expecting too seats wise.Heathener said:
It’s Labour not SKS so I’ve corrected it for you. We vote for constituency MPs. It’s not a Presidency.bigjohnowls said:
Todays Opiniumbigjohnowls said:
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.
LABOUR maj 186
National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Almost the same as my prediction the other day.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Seats
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab Majority 185
Lab have a 50% chance of getting 326 imo
Lab 38
Con 33
Green 80 -
I think it must be. Many years later the chief honcho, Tom Harrisson, published (posthumously, perhaps wisely) a book on the results, 'Living through the Blitz'. As I rsecall, its documented realism upset many wedded to the uncritical wartime propaganda and Churchillian Blitz mythology.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Believe this is comment with respect to HMG's wartime "Mass Observation" program monitoring public opinion on the Home Front.MattW said:
Schrodinger's Winston Churchill did, however.Heathener said:
So he assures me.turbotubbs said:
Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?Heathener said:
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.Redditch said:
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.kle4 said:
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.Scott_xP said:Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.2 -
No, I haven't even applied and for personal reasons likely won't be for a fair while if I ever doPagan2 said:
They checked on your social media postings here?HYUFD said:
I am not on the approved list of candidates for the party so can't stand anywhere unless as an Independent, which I won't be. Though we will have a new candidate in Epping Forest as Dame Eleanor is standing down (as there will also be in Harlow with Rob Halfon standing down)AlsoLei said:
I really hope that HYUFD is spending the weekend applying to everywhere within striking distance of Epping Forest!kle4 said:So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
1 -
This is what the morning thread is on.algarkirk said:
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.2 -
Yes, Jenny Gilruth (SNP) is married to Kezia Dugdale.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't a leading SNP politician married to former leader of Labour party in Scotland?Pagan2 said:
Gosh that would be a turn up, labour leader and tory leader leave their wives and marrykle4 said:I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko0 -
They look like they are on a date and it is all going rather well.kle4 said:I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko0 -
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
3 -
Well, IF you insist . . . TSE wears second-hand army boots . . . passed down from his mother!TheScreamingEagles said:
Kept on posting defamatory content.Mexicanpete said:...
Why was Surbiton cancelled?BartholomewRoberts said:
It looks amusing how many banned people there are on that one page alone. JamesKelly, TGOHF, surbiton, richardDodd and Ishmael. Quite a flashback.viewcode said:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/65030#Comment_65030Fairliered said:
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Fairliered said:
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.
Labour 33%
SNP 27%
Cons 16%
Lib Dems 12%
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
EDIT - Upon mature reflection, utterly & abjectly withdraw any & all possible aspersions against your (no doubt) sainted mother.0 -
Well, that's not surprising as each intends to fuck the other.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They look like they are on a date and it is all going rather well.kle4 said:I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko1 -
I need to be charged.ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
1 -
The Weaving at Hammersmith Irish Cenfre
Slainte2 -
"We thought we were in an election, but really we were in a love story"SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They look like they are on a date and it is all going rather well.kle4 said:I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko
Heartwarming.0 -
Depends who its from DeltaPoll Sevanta or More in common likely too be lesstheakes said:Next poll that comes out will say Labour 20+% ahead! Yes?
If there is a couple of points more swingback only We Think and People polling will be over 20
With everyone else that level of swingback will put lead at about 200 -
You saying he should perform a volt face?ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
Are you positive?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I need to be charged.ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
1 -
Poor sods. They didn't even have the special heavily armoured M4A3E2 spearhead assault version of the Sherman that the Americans had.Richard_Tyndall said:
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.dixiedean said:
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.HYUFD said:
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the SolentSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.FrancisUrquhart said:
e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's planeAlanbrooke said:
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.RochdalePioneers said:On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known.
See also Denis Healey.1 -
Well, we're giving him ample opportunity to do so.megasaur said:
You saying he should perform a volt face?ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
I am certain that I am correct.ydoethur said:
Are you positive?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I need to be charged.ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
Oh stop horsing around.ydoethur said:
Well, we're giving him ample opportunity to do so.megasaur said:
You saying he should perform a volt face?ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
So long as you have the capacitance to resist all the nonsense coming at you.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I am certain that I am correct.ydoethur said:
Are you positive?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I need to be charged.ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
Having grown up near Southampton - c’mon Leeds!eek said:
You claimed you could win any seat in the country for the Tory party. So try for one in Leeds - cos I knew you were going to post thatTheScreamingEagles said:Can people not lose their shit tomorrow if boyhood Southampton fan Rishi Sunak is at the play-off final.
He will be in tune with the nation in wanting Dirty Leeds to lose.0 -
I am ready for battery, if needed.Carnyx said:
So long as you have the capacitance to resist all the nonsense coming at you.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I am certain that I am correct.ydoethur said:
Are you positive?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I need to be charged.ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
I'm imaging he has a large pre-election rally booked where he'll turn all this around. Maybe at a venue like Co-op Live - whose headline act tonight managed to get busted for soft drug possession in Amsterdam!BartholomewRoberts said:
Becoming?Scott_xP said:@michaelsavage
NEW: The blame game is already happening inside the Tory party over the early election and errors of the opening days.
Senior figures in No10 are being blamed by insiders for alleged "arrogance" in their approach that now risks making Sunak the "hapless" candidate.
Levido is said to have been the only real figure holding out for a later election. Other advisers around Sunak, incl ministers Dowden & Coutinho, were in the loop.
Insider: “It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise."
“These arrogant men and women from No 10 turn up and think they’re brilliant at politics...
“The problem is we’ve got a cycle now where he’s in danger of becoming hapless.”
Seems the ideal venue.1 -
I'm neutral about these things...BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I am ready for battery, if needed.Carnyx said:
So long as you have the capacitance to resist all the nonsense coming at you.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I am certain that I am correct.ydoethur said:
Are you positive?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I need to be charged.ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
Yes. A completely decent, argued and rational case can be made for the Tories getting 35 seats (regular polls when Baxtered + a bit of extra tactical voting) and the Tories getting 290 seats (Labour fail to impress, ex 2019 Tory voters, currently DKs and Reform in vast numbers, vote Tory).Heathener said:
I’m finding this one of the hardest elections to bet on at the moment. Anyone else?Richard_Tyndall said:
I thought he said 9%? But I agree on the value.bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
As others have mentioned, and @TSE wrote about, it wouldn’t take much to see dramatic seat share shifts.
This is bizarre. Personally I don't regard either as impossible. But such value as there is will be found in the NOM possibilities and thereabouts.3 -
Advancing up a single road? Even if you were in Jagdtigers you were stuffed.Carnyx said:
Poor sods. They didn't even have the special heavily armoured M4A3E2 spearhead assault version of the Sherman that the Americans had.Richard_Tyndall said:
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.dixiedean said:
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.HYUFD said:
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the SolentSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.FrancisUrquhart said:
e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's planeAlanbrooke said:
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.RochdalePioneers said:On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known.
See also Denis Healey.
1 -
Wine which improves with keeping is way above almost anyone's pay grade and is not called names like Redbeard. Otoh genuinely undrinkable wine is almost unheard of these days. Drink it is my advice.MattW said:Wine Question:
Is Redbeard Bacchus 2020 any good? Keep or Drink?
(It was a free bonus.)0 -
To show us his potential?ydoethur said:
Well, we're giving him ample opportunity to do so.megasaur said:
You saying he should perform a volt face?ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
0 -
Better chance of getting out, though.Malmesbury said:
Advancing up a single road? Even if you were in Jagdtigers you were stuffed.Carnyx said:
Poor sods. They didn't even have the special heavily armoured M4A3E2 spearhead assault version of the Sherman that the Americans had.Richard_Tyndall said:
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.dixiedean said:
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.HYUFD said:
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the SolentSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.FrancisUrquhart said:
e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's planeAlanbrooke said:
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.RochdalePioneers said:On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known.
See also Denis Healey.0 -
I'm going to be direct here.Carnyx said:
So long as you have the capacitance to resist all the nonsense coming at you.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I am certain that I am correct.ydoethur said:
Are you positive?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I need to be charged.ydoethur said:
Stop being so relentlessly negative about yourself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I wouldn't know anything about that, I am just a humble Battery.Fairliered said:
He may come back as DicksonStuart, though.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@StuartDickson was banned?
We should get back to discussing current affairs.
Especially the voters alternating between parties.0 -
Well if Opinium is accurate and Lab are only on 41 I think Lab will be lucky to get 38 by Polling dayGIN1138 said:
SKS fans would have a lot to explain with that...bigjohnowls said:
No chance imoJohnO said:
That’s about what I’m expecting too seats wise.Heathener said:
It’s Labour not SKS so I’ve corrected it for you. We vote for constituency MPs. It’s not a Presidency.bigjohnowls said:
Todays Opiniumbigjohnowls said:
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.
LABOUR maj 186
National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Almost the same as my prediction the other day.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Seats
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab Majority 185
Lab have a 50% chance of getting 326 imo
Lab 38
Con 33
Green 8
It is more of a stretch for Con to get to 33 but as propoganda keeps on that a vote for Reform lets Lab in i can see their vote collapsing to say 5%
I am on NOM at 6/1 and Lab to get less than the 12.83m votes it got in 2017 at an incredibly generous 8/10 -
I don't think anything like a 12% lead is needed for a Lab majority.algarkirk said:
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
Tonight's Opinium give a 186 seat Labour majority on a 14% lead for example on UNS.
Incidentally it seems the raw figures for Opinium are unchanged. The 4% drop in Lab lead is to do with how they handle the DKs.
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1794446635101196603?t=JcdR_1aWypDusJM67SUBgw&s=192 -
I wonder what happened to Mick Pork? (Chortles)BartholomewRoberts said:
It looks amusing how many banned people there are on that one page alone. JamesKelly, TGOHF, surbiton, richardDodd and Ishmael. Quite a flashback.viewcode said:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/65030#Comment_65030Fairliered said:
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed.kle4 said:
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Fairliered said:
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.
Labour 33%
SNP 27%
Cons 16%
Lib Dems 12%
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.0 -
Tim was for a good while about the only really partisan Labourite on the site. Sharp as a tack.GIN1138 said:I kind of miss Tim and Plato. They were a bit like petrol and water but their battles were pretty fun...
1 -
Terrible news RIP the pilot
A pilot has died after a Spitfire crashed in a field close to an RAF station in Lincolnshire, officials said.
Emergency services were called to the field off Langrick Road, Coningsby shortly before 13:20 BST on Saturday.
The World War Two-era plane belonged to the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight based at RAF Coningsby, the RAF said2 -
Labour need to get 12% lead for a bare majority on uniform swing.algarkirk said:
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?bigjohnowls said:
I think they will exceed 200Sean_F said:Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
If they get lower swing in say London, Wales and Scotland (where each vote they take from the SNP has half the swing value as any vote taken directly from the Tories), somewhat higher in the North of England, and much higher in the Midlands and provincial South, then the very same lead could give Labour a 3 figure majority. This was very much the prediction of the last YouGov MRP poll.
If they get lower swing where the Tory vote is below 20%, it will be higher elsewhere.
If they get higher swing in current Tory seats, for instance, due to the fact that Reform didn't stand last time in Tory seats and will now, that affects the seat count.
Some of this could unwind, but Labour not doing quite a bit better than UNS suggests does seem unlikely on current patterns.
I'm expecting an eventual Labour lead in the 8-16% range, but even at the low end, I expect the Labour vote to be efficient enough for a majority of a couple of dozen.1 -
He kept the Red Flag flying alright...Monksfield said:
Tim was for a good while about the only really partisan Labourite on the site. Sharp as a tack.GIN1138 said:I kind of miss Tim and Plato. They were a bit like petrol and water but their battles were pretty fun...
0 -
They've been doing a lot of rehearsing recently. A C47 and what I thought was a P51 both with DDay stripes flew over my house while I was gardening the other week.bigjohnowls said:Terrible news RIP the pilot
A pilot has died after a Spitfire crashed in a field close to an RAF station in Lincolnshire, officials said.
Emergency services were called to the field off Langrick Road, Coningsby shortly before 13:20 BST on Saturday.
The World War Two-era plane belonged to the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight based at RAF Coningsby, the RAF said0
