On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?
Don't be idiotic, a subsample of around 60 is about as accurate as an American war movie.
Yep, that's why unlike other PBers I don't post them.
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?
Don't be idiotic, a subsample of around 60 is about as accurate as an American war movie.
What about the Ridley Scott Napoleon movie? Am I to believe the Emperor did not charge the British lines on horseback?
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
???
Mike had two golden rules
1) Any poll you don't like is clearly an outlier
2) The most accurate poll is the one which has Labour doing worst (but Corbyn ruined that.)
I could see Labour getting anything between 39% and 49%.
I don't know which way, but I'd doubt the latter just because they find it harder to turn out their base, and will struggle to do so this time in some of their safer seats.
The thing is I can see the Tories getting 30% or 20% and at 20% you may be able to count the seats won on 2 hands
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?
Don't be idiotic, a subsample of around 60 is about as accurate as an American war movie.
What about the Ridley Scott Napoleon movie? Am I to believe the Emperor did not charge the British lines on horseback?
I like Sir Ridley a lot so we pretend his Napoleon film never happened.
Thanks for the kind comments, but I'm not going to do it.
I have a demanding full-time job, a young family, and charity trustee responsibilities. I'm not very good at the small-p side of politics, and I have a thin skin. And I'm not travelling for a seat - local one is taken - because I think being an MP is a shit job with poor pay.
Even if none of that were true I'm not even sure my membership is still active yet alone am I on the approved parliamentary list.
However, I did successfully stand for election this year at my charity AGM, with a hustings in front of 200 or so people, which is something of a win and vaguely public service related.
Spoke to an old friend yesterday. He flagged up similar observations as you - in summary "what if you win?"
Being an MP is a crazy job in 2024. 24 hour interaction where people expect instant response and absolutist answers. You'd have to be mad to want to become one!
Perhaps. But the opportunity to serve, to make a difference. To try...
Socrates. A real gent and we saw eye to eye on most things. Disappeared long ago. Not banned, just slipped off the political coil.
Alistair Meeks. I disagreed with him on about 95% of matters but he had a depth of knowledge and a debating ability that was enviable. A massive asset to the site.
Welshowl - but mostly because he and I were at Uni together in Cardiff and it was nice chatting about old times.
And I would add Richard Nabavi, another very intelligent and measured poster who I have not seen around for quite a while. He is also about the only PBer I have ever had bets with. (I won one, he won the other, £50 each time to a charity of the others choice.)
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
There's a semi-interesting quasi-connection between Rishi Sunak's campaign launch, and my own experience with National Express.
Because the last time I rode on a NE coach, from Golders Green bus terminal to STN during a rain storm, my luggage was thoughtfully place underneath a leak and was totally soaked when I arrived at the airport.
On the National Express, there's a jolly hostess selling crisps and tea. She'll provide you with drinks and theatrical winks for a sky-high fee
But it's hard to survive, when your arse is the size, of a small countr-eeee
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?
So he assures me.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.
First Anecdata: I've seen my first election signs. Orange diamonds up in Winchester and Romsey, both target areas.
Caroline Nokes flyer in my folks house in Romsey was multicoloured, almost rainbow, with lots about her and no mention of the Conservative Party on the front.
Still no mention in overheard conversations or even by my folks.
EDIT: Where can you post an image and then link to it with the magic formula
I guess in terms of house prices for the area, LD posters are in the highest postcodes on average, then Tory, then Green, then Labour, then SNP and Reform at the bottom? LDs winning here everywhere? Oh look, Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham, Cheltenham, Winchester, Esher and Walton etc. Reform winning here? Margate or Blackpool or Clacton or Rotherham
I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?
Don't worry, I'm not going to.
Unfortunately not, as you have to have already been on the CCHQ approved candidates list even to get on the imposed final 3 mass selections over the next fortnight
. . . A metal box with the polyglass wheel The end result to a dream of Henry Ford Well I've got a car that's mine alone That me and the finance company own A ready-made pile of manufactured grief And if I ain't out of gas in the pouring rain I'm a-changin' a flat in a hurricane . . . .
Lord Mr Ford, I just wish you could see What you're simple horseless carriage has become Well it seems your contribution to man Got a little out of hand Oh Lord Mr Ford what have you done?
SSI - Note that in USA it's been common for a LONG time, to interpret "FORD" logo on a vehicle as:
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
We have seen previous elections where the concept of UNS falls apart, and I expect this to be the same. The swing needed for Labour to win a majority of 1 is crazy. We all know that. And yet we're about to watch it happen.
The joy of todays politics is that everything is possible.
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
???
Mike had two golden rules
1) Any poll you don't like is clearly an outlier
2) The most accurate poll is the one which has Labour doing worst (but Corbyn ruined that.)
I could see Labour getting anything between 39% and 49%.
I don't know which way, but I'd doubt the latter just because they find it harder to turn out their base, and will struggle to do so this time in some of their safer seats.
I try to come up with what I think are plausible estimates of vote shares and I end up with about ten per cent left over - the Tories have been monumentally awful, in so many ways, but Labour and Starmer look set to be the weakest winning Opposition ever, the Lib Dems are still suffering for the Coalition, the Greens seem to rile about nine-tenths of the electorate, and Farage rates Reforms chances so highly he's buggered off to America. And then there's the SNP, lol.
The shares will have to add up to 100% in the end, but it looks like a very low turnout to me.
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
We have seen previous elections where the concept of UNS falls apart, and I expect this to be the same. The swing needed for Labour to win a majority of 1 is crazy. We all know that. And yet we're about to watch it happen.
The joy of todays politics is that everything is possible.
It's not crazy. But it has only happened once since the war. Therefore, even allowing for what the polls say it would still be a very remarkable result.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.
No ullage if you built the exact amount, as I suggested.
Ullage is fresh air. Not boilable
When I worked in pubs it was the beer lost in the drip trays etc.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
Memories of the war can still hang over politicians and their ideas today, albeit not necessarily in good ways.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?
So he assures me.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.
Schrodinger's Winston Churchill did, however.
Believe this is comment with respect to HMG's wartime "Mass Observation" program monitoring public opinion on the Home Front.
NEW: The blame game is already happening inside the Tory party over the early election and errors of the opening days.
Senior figures in No10 are being blamed by insiders for alleged "arrogance" in their approach that now risks making Sunak the "hapless" candidate.
Levido is said to have been the only real figure holding out for a later election. Other advisers around Sunak, incl ministers Dowden & Coutinho, were in the loop.
Insider: “It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise."
“These arrogant men and women from No 10 turn up and think they’re brilliant at politics...
“The problem is we’ve got a cycle now where he’s in danger of becoming hapless.”
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
I really hope that HYUFD is spending the weekend applying to everywhere within striking distance of Epping Forest!
I am not on the approved list of candidates for the party so can't stand anywhere unless as an Independent, which I won't be. Though we will have a new candidate in Epping Forest as Dame Eleanor is standing down (as there will also be in Harlow with Rob Halfon standing down)
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
I really hope that HYUFD is spending the weekend applying to everywhere within striking distance of Epping Forest!
I am not on the approved list of candidates for the party so can't stand anywhere unless as an Independent, which I won't be. Though we will have a new candidate in Epping Forest as Dame Eleanor is standing down (as there will also be in Harlow with Rob Halfon standing down)
NEW: The blame game is already happening inside the Tory party over the early election and errors of the opening days.
Senior figures in No10 are being blamed by insiders for alleged "arrogance" in their approach that now risks making Sunak the "hapless" candidate.
Levido is said to have been the only real figure holding out for a later election. Other advisers around Sunak, incl ministers Dowden & Coutinho, were in the loop.
Insider: “It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise."
“These arrogant men and women from No 10 turn up and think they’re brilliant at politics...
“The problem is we’ve got a cycle now where he’s in danger of becoming hapless.”
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?
So he assures me.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.
Schrodinger's Winston Churchill did, however.
Believe this is comment with respect to HMG's wartime "Mass Observation" program monitoring public opinion on the Home Front.
I think it must be. Many years later the chief honcho, Tom Harrisson, published (posthumously, perhaps wisely) a book on the results, 'Living through the Blitz'. As I rsecall, its documented realism upset many wedded to the uncritical wartime propaganda and Churchillian Blitz mythology.
So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
I really hope that HYUFD is spending the weekend applying to everywhere within striking distance of Epping Forest!
I am not on the approved list of candidates for the party so can't stand anywhere unless as an Independent, which I won't be. Though we will have a new candidate in Epping Forest as Dame Eleanor is standing down (as there will also be in Harlow with Rob Halfon standing down)
They checked on your social media postings here?
No, I haven't even applied and for personal reasons likely won't be for a fair while if I ever do
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
I cannot post it, but I like the BBC's choice of image for their daily summary story on the election, with Rishi and Keir seemingly sharing a drink together whilst smiling happily at one another.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.
Poor sods. They didn't even have the special heavily armoured M4A3E2 spearhead assault version of the Sherman that the Americans had.
NEW: The blame game is already happening inside the Tory party over the early election and errors of the opening days.
Senior figures in No10 are being blamed by insiders for alleged "arrogance" in their approach that now risks making Sunak the "hapless" candidate.
Levido is said to have been the only real figure holding out for a later election. Other advisers around Sunak, incl ministers Dowden & Coutinho, were in the loop.
Insider: “It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise."
“These arrogant men and women from No 10 turn up and think they’re brilliant at politics...
“The problem is we’ve got a cycle now where he’s in danger of becoming hapless.”
Becoming?
I'm imaging he has a large pre-election rally booked where he'll turn all this around. Maybe at a venue like Co-op Live - whose headline act tonight managed to get busted for soft drug possession in Amsterdam!
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
I thought he said 9%? But I agree on the value.
I’m finding this one of the hardest elections to bet on at the moment. Anyone else?
As others have mentioned, and @TSE wrote about, it wouldn’t take much to see dramatic seat share shifts.
Yes. A completely decent, argued and rational case can be made for the Tories getting 35 seats (regular polls when Baxtered + a bit of extra tactical voting) and the Tories getting 290 seats (Labour fail to impress, ex 2019 Tory voters, currently DKs and Reform in vast numbers, vote Tory).
This is bizarre. Personally I don't regard either as impossible. But such value as there is will be found in the NOM possibilities and thereabouts.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.
Poor sods. They didn't even have the special heavily armoured M4A3E2 spearhead assault version of the Sherman that the Americans had.
Advancing up a single road? Even if you were in Jagdtigers you were stuffed.
Wine which improves with keeping is way above almost anyone's pay grade and is not called names like Redbeard. Otoh genuinely undrinkable wine is almost unheard of these days. Drink it is my advice.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.
Poor sods. They didn't even have the special heavily armoured M4A3E2 spearhead assault version of the Sherman that the Americans had.
Advancing up a single road? Even if you were in Jagdtigers you were stuffed.
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
I don't think anything like a 12% lead is needed for a Lab majority.
Tonight's Opinium give a 186 seat Labour majority on a 14% lead for example on UNS.
Incidentally it seems the raw figures for Opinium are unchanged. The 4% drop in Lab lead is to do with how they handle the DKs.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
Labour need to get 12% lead for a bare majority on uniform swing.
If they get lower swing in say London, Wales and Scotland (where each vote they take from the SNP has half the swing value as any vote taken directly from the Tories), somewhat higher in the North of England, and much higher in the Midlands and provincial South, then the very same lead could give Labour a 3 figure majority. This was very much the prediction of the last YouGov MRP poll.
If they get lower swing where the Tory vote is below 20%, it will be higher elsewhere.
If they get higher swing in current Tory seats, for instance, due to the fact that Reform didn't stand last time in Tory seats and will now, that affects the seat count.
Some of this could unwind, but Labour not doing quite a bit better than UNS suggests does seem unlikely on current patterns.
I'm expecting an eventual Labour lead in the 8-16% range, but even at the low end, I expect the Labour vote to be efficient enough for a majority of a couple of dozen.
A pilot has died after a Spitfire crashed in a field close to an RAF station in Lincolnshire, officials said.
Emergency services were called to the field off Langrick Road, Coningsby shortly before 13:20 BST on Saturday.
The World War Two-era plane belonged to the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight based at RAF Coningsby, the RAF said
They've been doing a lot of rehearsing recently. A C47 and what I thought was a P51 both with DDay stripes flew over my house while I was gardening the other week.
Comments
Thought Survation, DeltaPoll and Savanta might all drop one tonight?
I think I shall put my name forward to become a Tory MP.
2024 - Become MP
2027 - Become Leader of His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition
2029 - Become PM after winning a landslide at the general election
I have it all mapped out.
Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known.
See also Denis Healey.
Almost the same as my prediction the other day.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Seats
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab Majority 185
It's about companies of artillery, rather than duracell bunnies.
But I'm biased as a relative used to live above the horses in the Royal Mews *.
* GG has not been let in.
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
Being an MP is a crazy job in 2024. 24 hour interaction where people expect instant response and absolutist answers. You'd have to be mad to want to become one!
Perhaps. But the opportunity to serve, to make a difference. To try...
Alistair Meeks. I disagreed with him on about 95% of matters but he had a depth of knowledge and a debating ability that was enviable. A massive asset to the site.
Welshowl - but mostly because he and I were at Uni together in Cardiff and it was nice chatting about old times.
And I would add Richard Nabavi, another very intelligent and measured poster who I have not seen around for quite a while. He is also about the only PBer I have ever had bets with. (I won one, he won the other, £50 each time to a charity of the others choice.)
Though on a point of pedantry I think 'the other one' died quite some time ago too.
Lord Mr Ford - Jerry Reed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jOMcAlO7rQ
. . . A metal box with the polyglass wheel
The end result to a dream of Henry Ford
Well I've got a car that's mine alone
That me and the finance company own
A ready-made pile of manufactured grief
And if I ain't out of gas in the pouring rain
I'm a-changin' a flat in a hurricane . . . .
Lord Mr Ford, I just wish you could see
What you're simple horseless carriage has become
Well it seems your contribution to man
Got a little out of hand
Oh Lord Mr Ford what have you done?
SSI - Note that in USA it's been common for a LONG time, to interpret "FORD" logo on a vehicle as:
"Fix or Repair Daily"
The joy of todays politics is that everything is possible.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevvxwq9ypko
The shares will have to add up to 100% in the end, but it looks like a very low turnout to me.
As others have mentioned, and @TSE wrote about, it wouldn’t take much to see dramatic seat share shifts.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/last-boy-to-be-beaten-at-eton
NEW: The blame game is already happening inside the Tory party over the early election and errors of the opening days.
Senior figures in No10 are being blamed by insiders for alleged "arrogance" in their approach that now risks making Sunak the "hapless" candidate.
Levido is said to have been the only real figure holding out for a later election. Other advisers around Sunak, incl ministers Dowden & Coutinho, were in the loop.
Insider: “It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise."
“These arrogant men and women from No 10 turn up and think they’re brilliant at politics...
“The problem is we’ve got a cycle now where he’s in danger of becoming hapless.”
Lab have a 50% chance of getting 326 imo
Lab 38
Con 33
Green 8
Is Redbeard Bacchus 2020 any good? Keep or Drink?
(It was a free bonus.)
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
EDIT - Upon mature reflection, utterly & abjectly withdraw any & all possible aspersions against your (no doubt) sainted mother.
Slainte
Heartwarming.
If there is a couple of points more swingback only We Think and People polling will be over 20
With everyone else that level of swingback will put lead at about 20
Seems the ideal venue.
This is bizarre. Personally I don't regard either as impossible. But such value as there is will be found in the NOM possibilities and thereabouts.
We should get back to discussing current affairs.
Especially the voters alternating between parties.
It is more of a stretch for Con to get to 33 but as propoganda keeps on that a vote for Reform lets Lab in i can see their vote collapsing to say 5%
I am on NOM at 6/1 and Lab to get less than the 12.83m votes it got in 2017 at an incredibly generous 8/1
Tonight's Opinium give a 186 seat Labour majority on a 14% lead for example on UNS.
Incidentally it seems the raw figures for Opinium are unchanged. The 4% drop in Lab lead is to do with how they handle the DKs.
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1794446635101196603?t=JcdR_1aWypDusJM67SUBgw&s=19
A pilot has died after a Spitfire crashed in a field close to an RAF station in Lincolnshire, officials said.
Emergency services were called to the field off Langrick Road, Coningsby shortly before 13:20 BST on Saturday.
The World War Two-era plane belonged to the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight based at RAF Coningsby, the RAF said
If they get lower swing in say London, Wales and Scotland (where each vote they take from the SNP has half the swing value as any vote taken directly from the Tories), somewhat higher in the North of England, and much higher in the Midlands and provincial South, then the very same lead could give Labour a 3 figure majority. This was very much the prediction of the last YouGov MRP poll.
If they get lower swing where the Tory vote is below 20%, it will be higher elsewhere.
If they get higher swing in current Tory seats, for instance, due to the fact that Reform didn't stand last time in Tory seats and will now, that affects the seat count.
Some of this could unwind, but Labour not doing quite a bit better than UNS suggests does seem unlikely on current patterns.
I'm expecting an eventual Labour lead in the 8-16% range, but even at the low end, I expect the Labour vote to be efficient enough for a majority of a couple of dozen.