One thing overlooked from Sunak’s speech in the rain was his argument, which was: ‘I will never leave you in the darkest days alone. But those days are now over, so…’
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Rishi is wrongly focussed on economic *news* when people's lived experience trumps tractor stats. It does not matter if the numbers go up down or sideways. What matters is the pound in your pocket, not a blip in the figures because something that happened a year ago has now dropped out of the annual rate calculation.
The reality for some, the boasting for others.
The current zeitgest is one of personal hardship and suffering.
Even if its not personally true.
This is what the right fail to get: people can be unhappy about the suffering of others, even those they don't personally know.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
I think the analogy is if you were on death row you’d exhaust all your appeals but once you’re at the stage where you’re only hope is “there might be an earthquake that destroys the jail and I can escape” you might as well just strap yourself to the gurney and get it over with. Rishi just got to the realisation that he’d run out of appeals and the jailbreak was never going to work.
Two years as PM would have been reached by late October and a January '25 election would have meant the history books would have had him in post from 2022 to 2025.
I just don't understand July unless he believes his own economic miracle BS.
There is even more bad news to come that isn't yet in the public domain...
You mean if they win Labour will have squandered Rishi's golden legacy as soon as the July inflation figures.
That's how poor Rachel Reeves really is.
It’s the August figures which are going to be bad - as that is when last years drop in energy prices disappears from the figures.
Well of course, but assuming Reeves is CoE we get to see what she's going to do about it. She can do her blame the Tories routine, but she will have a more hostile press telling her she owns it.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
He got wind of some political icebergs in his path that simply couldn't be ignored.
Yesterdays disastrous kick off, today the immigration numbers, candidates not set up. The tories are publicly tearing into each other now too. Apparently the election slogan is now "kamikaze"... I think any idea that 6 weeks of scrutiny will be a problem for labour is fantasy. The tories are going to have 6 weeks of red wedding style pandemonium as their campaign... this could get very ugly as they duke it out in public and prove why they absolutely cannot govern.
It's beginning to look like Sunak was forced out by his own side anyway. The Tory Party isn't actually ready for the GE and activists as well as MPs are livid.
There is even more bad news to come that isn't yet in the public domain...
You mean if they win Labour will have squandered Rishi's golden legacy as soon as the July inflation figures.
That's how poor Rachel Reeves really is.
It’s the August figures which are going to be bad - as that is when last years drop in energy prices disappears from the figures.
Well of course, but assuming Reeves is CoE we get to see what she's going to do about it. She can do her blame the Tories routine, but she will have a more hostile press telling her she owns it.
The Tories were blaming Gordon Brown for over 10 years, so suck it up!
I think tactical voting will kill the Tories. Just can't see this as being anything other than terrible for them.
Labour will do its best to mess with the LibDem targets, though. Look at our Nick, claiming Labour has a chance in Didcot despite coming behind the LibDems in both PCC and local elections covering the patch.
Quite a lot of partisans within Labour would give up 50 seats of a large majority if it stopped the Lib Dems winning another dozen.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
given half of Europe is pushing for a Rwanda style scheme it's only a matter of time till Starmer does a volte face and claims he supported it ll the while.
Nobody is pushing to send asylum seekers away with no right of return. As you know.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
The SNP’s financial woes are compounded by the supporters that donated being pissed off by their “progressive” policies and leaving the party or no longer being active members.
It's beginning to look like Sunak was forced out by his own side anyway. The Tory Party isn't actually ready for the GE and activists as well as MPs are livid.
When Sunak came in, he had a very clear strategy. He'd set some achievable targets, achieve them, then say "I'm the sort of sensible chap who sets achievable targets and achieves them."
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney's point might be (and even if it wasn't, it should be) that wilfully clashing with Scottish holidays proves the contempt of London for Scotland, so vote SNP.
Given that argument gets made all the time I think there must be better ways to make it rather than a complaint about election date. It might even undercut the point.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
given half of Europe is pushing for a Rwanda style scheme it's only a matter of time till Starmer does a volte face and claims he supported it ll the while.
Nobody is pushing to send asylum seekers away with no right of return. As you know.
James O'Malley @Psythor · 3m Good luck to the broadcasters trying to schedule any election debates as there are 8pm Euro matches on…
June 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, and 30,
And July 1 and 2.
(So I predict there will be a debate on Thursday 27th)
I think debates will be 13th June and 27th on that basis
The end of the useless set-piece MSM “debates”, with days of inane commentary before and after, might be the best thing about this election.
Not to mention weeks of clamouring for minor parties to be admitted: LibDems are only our fourth largest party on seats, and on opinion poll ratings are behind RefUK.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
I recall that you still believe that Humza will be on a £52k pa pension. Surely he’ll be willing to help out with a bit of it?
Also, is DL really accusing the SNP of profiting from its MPs' expense claims? But perhaps for OGH's sake at least he should not be too specific.
Some Tory MPs were taking crumb of comfort last night they might get boost from a flight taking off at the end of the election campaign. Now Sunak confirms they won't. (And no perm sec was likely to consider that possible in an election period, given scheme likely to be scrapped)
Telegraph now boldly headlining a promise from Sunak that if he is re-elected he will get the flights done.
I think the really telling aspect of the "wally with no brolly" stuff yesterday isn't that it was inept not to find a room, or have an umbrella (although it was). It's the total inability of Sunak to acknowledge it or go off script.
Having found himself in a less than ideal situation, most PM's would have nodded to the humour of the situation. There were lots of lame dad jokes to be made there... "thanks for coming on such a beautiful day!" "We're best placed to weather the storms ahead - as I'm proving right now!" "The Tories will rain on Labour's parade!"
What was so weird was he simply didn't acknowledge it at all - people laughed at him rather than with him as he failed to bring himself into the joke.
He's incapable of deviating from his script. Part of the reason - but only part - why I think he will be hopeless in a debate, and will do his utmost to avoid taking part in one.
He surely has to try to get a debate? You can't be 20 points down in the polls and not hunt around for risky possible gamechangers, however unlikely they may be to shift things.
Starmer isn't Mr Flexible either - he's forensic and well-prepared, but he's no showman. I suspect he'd be more likely to avoid a debate for the converse reason... if you're 20 points up, why risk it for a biscuit?
There is even more bad news to come that isn't yet in the public domain...
You mean if they win Labour will have squandered Rishi's golden legacy as soon as the July inflation figures.
That's how poor Rachel Reeves really is.
It’s the August figures which are going to be bad - as that is when last years drop in energy prices disappears from the figures.
Well of course, but assuming Reeves is CoE we get to see what she's going to do about it. She can do her blame the Tories routine, but she will have a more hostile press telling her she owns it.
Nope - for the first year no matter what the press say Labour voters are going to be giving her the benefit of the doubt.
The issue for Labour is that they need to grow the economy and grow it quickly and that be awkward.
The one good thing is that with a July election there will be downtime in August where Parliament won’t be sitting to allow the real situation to be discovered
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Just maybe his government should have tried harder to settle the junior doctors dispute. Too late now.
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney's point might be (and even if it wasn't, it should be) that wilfully clashing with Scottish holidays proves the contempt of London for Scotland, so vote SNP.
Northern Irish schools are also on holiday. Many moderate people go on holiday in early July to avoid the marching season. It could affect the Alliance vote.
There is even more bad news to come that isn't yet in the public domain...
You mean if they win Labour will have squandered Rishi's golden legacy as soon as the July inflation figures.
That's how poor Rachel Reeves really is.
It’s the August figures which are going to be bad - as that is when last years drop in energy prices disappears from the figures.
Well of course, but assuming Reeves is CoE we get to see what she's going to do about it. She can do her blame the Tories routine, but she will have a more hostile press telling her she owns it.
The Tories were blaming Gordon Brown for over 10 years, so suck it up!
Labour can blame who they want.
But they're going to have to deal with the realities of government.
Unfortunate and unfair perhaps but also difficult, painful and possibly unsolvable.
@PickardJE Nick Robinson: "there were three different prime ministers in a year, four different chancellors in a year, a home secretary sacked for six days then hired again and sacked again a year later, a prime minister who was forced out of office because he was judged to be lying by his own colleagues in Parliament, and another who even *you* think crashed the economy: Why on earth should people give the Conservatives another term?"
Rishi Sunak (long pause) "I'm really proud of what the Conservatives have done in office, when we came into office 14 years ago Labour had bankrupted the economy"
We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.
PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.
The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.
If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.
You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.
Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
Yes indeed. Not that I want to spam the site with photos - what, me?? - but if you embed them with html surely that spares vanilla?
The photos really liven up walls of text, and make PB a more interesting read, like images in a magazine. They are also a good way of lightening overly intense debates (cough, trans, cough)
So far I've had a one time Tory voter inspired by Brexit say pox on everyone, a shire Tory type worry there will be loads of people staying at home, and an unknown quantity feel sorry for Sunak and a little irritated we seem to be losing several non-white leaders as they thought that looked good as a nation.
As I'm a known anorak I tend to get lots of vague acquaintances seek me out on big occasions as they know I won't shut them down in boredom.
Kay Burley asking Pat Mcfadden when will labour recognise Palestine as an independent state to placate the Muslim vote, he simply was unwilling to give a definitive answer and said there were many other issues to discuss
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
I think the analogy is if you were on death row you’d exhaust all your appeals but once you’re at the stage where you’re only hope is “there might be an earthquake that destroys the jail and I can escape” you might as well just strap yourself to the gurney and get it over with. Rishi just got to the realisation that he’d run out of appeals and the jailbreak was never going to work.
Two years as PM would have been reached by late October and a January '25 election would have meant the history books would have had him in post from 2022 to 2025.
I just don't understand July unless he believes his own economic miracle BS.
He doesn’t. I mean sure he could have lumbered on to get a particular milestone but it wouldn’t have been a happy experience. At least now he can say that he went on a date of his choosing and more or less on his terms. It might not be entirely true but it is not implausible enough to completely dismiss.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS @Taz and @Mexicanpete are famously gushing about the prospect of a Labour victory.
Sheer hubris.
Well you clearly have your doubts too or you wouldn't have piled on a Tory majority at 32. The odds are even better now. Do you remember 1992 too?
I was voting Liberal Democrat or Labour whilst you were still Branch Secretary of the Young Conservatives.
There is even more bad news to come that isn't yet in the public domain...
You mean if they win Labour will have squandered Rishi's golden legacy as soon as the July inflation figures.
That's how poor Rachel Reeves really is.
It’s the August figures which are going to be bad - as that is when last years drop in energy prices disappears from the figures.
Well of course, but assuming Reeves is CoE we get to see what she's going to do about it. She can do her blame the Tories routine, but she will have a more hostile press telling her she owns it.
The Tories were blaming Gordon Brown for over 10 years, so suck it up!
Labour can blame who they want.
But they're going to have to deal with the realities of government.
Unfortunate and unfair perhaps but also difficult, painful and possibly unsolvable.
True, true and we'll see.
It will be interesting to see, when the boat numbers inevitably go up in the summer as everyone predicts they will, how Labour handle it.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
@PickardJE Nick Robinson: "there were three different prime ministers in a year, four different chancellors in a year, a home secretary sacked for six days then hired again and sacked again a year later, a prime minister who was forced out of office because he was judged to be lying by his own colleagues in Parliament, and another who even *you* think crashed the economy: Why on earth should people give the Conservatives another term?"
Rishi Sunak (long pause) "I'm really proud of what the Conservatives have done in office, when we came into office 14 years ago Labour had bankrupted the economy"
Pretty devastating. There's no answer for what went down in 2022, it destroyed any image of competence, split the party, and ruined their chances.
The hope will have been Rishi could recover somewhat and repair damage, but he's failed.
Kay Burley asking Pat Mcfadden when will labour recognise Palestine as an independent state to placate the Muslim vote, he simply was unwilling to give a definitive answer and said there were many other issues to discuss
Which is sort of fair enough. Palestine is a minority interest for most.
Not much reaction from the stock market this morning. I was wondering if sentiment might improve with a prospective 'end to uncertainty'?
The stock market has assumed Labour takes office at some point this year in any case, and their macroeconomic policies are not a concern.
Once in office the policy detail and its effectiveness will matter, but don't expect any market reaction to the campaign. It just doesn't matter if Labour win a big, small or no majority from that perspective.
Not much reaction from the stock market this morning. I was wondering if sentiment might improve with a prospective 'end to uncertainty'?
Uncertainty over what, though? Hunt is no Kwarteng, and Reeves is no McDonnell. Labour will do some different things to the Conservatives, but both are predictable, mainstream figures in terms of economic policy - nobody is going to be doing anything wild regardless of outcome.
There is even more bad news to come that isn't yet in the public domain...
You mean if they win Labour will have squandered Rishi's golden legacy as soon as the July inflation figures.
That's how poor Rachel Reeves really is.
It’s the August figures which are going to be bad - as that is when last years drop in energy prices disappears from the figures.
Well of course, but assuming Reeves is CoE we get to see what she's going to do about it. She can do her blame the Tories routine, but she will have a more hostile press telling her she owns it.
Nope - for the first year no matter what the press say Labour voters are going to be giving her the benefit of the doubt.
The issue for Labour is that they need to grow the economy and grow it quickly and that be awkward.
The one good thing is that with a July election there will be downtime in August where Parliament won’t be sitting to allow the real situation to be discovered
On that point of Parliament sitting do you know when Parliament will go into summer recess and return?
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
What figures are you using for Tory polling.\ At 20% (yougov) I see little chance of the vote dropping below that but 27% may be far too high and the Tory party polling range is statistically far bigger than Labour.
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney's point might be (and even if it wasn't, it should be) that wilfully clashing with Scottish holidays proves the contempt of London for Scotland, so vote SNP.
Northern Irish schools are also on holiday. Many moderate people go on holiday in early July to avoid the marching season. It could affect the Alliance vote.
All local authoritu schools in Scotland *except for Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire* are on hols that day.
We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.
PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.
The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.
If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.
You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.
Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
Yes indeed. Not that I want to spam the site with photos - what, me?? - but if you embed them with html surely that spares vanilla?
The photos really liven up walls of text, and make PB a more interesting read, like images in a magazine. They are also a good way of lightening overly intense debates (cough, trans, cough)
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
No, it's due to the fact they were struggling to find and vet candidates- and now will have hardly any time - so either (a) won't be able to field a full slate or (b) some those who they do select in panic will blow-up mid campaign.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Rishi is wrongly focussed on economic *news* when people's lived experience trumps tractor stats. It does not matter if the numbers go up down or sideways. What matters is the pound in your pocket, not a blip in the figures because something that happened a year ago has now dropped out of the annual rate calculation.
The reality for some, the boasting for others.
The current zeitgest is one of personal hardship and suffering.
Even if its not personally true.
Now that really isn't correct.
Anyway it's not over 'til it's over. You Tories still might steal the win.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
given half of Europe is pushing for a Rwanda style scheme it's only a matter of time till Starmer does a volte face and claims he supported it ll the while.
Nobody is pushing to send asylum seekers away with no right of return. As you know.
Do I ?
You're an intelligent man. You know the difference between the Denmark scheme or Australia scheme or Israeli scheme or any other "lets process applications abroad" scheme and what we had proposed.
"Everyone supports our sensible plan" is spin given by people who know they are lying for votes. That isn't you, surely.
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney's point might be (and even if it wasn't, it should be) that wilfully clashing with Scottish holidays proves the contempt of London for Scotland, so vote SNP.
Northern Irish schools are also on holiday. Many moderate people go on holiday in early July to avoid the marching season. It could affect the Alliance vote.
There is a simple solution - postal votes. Good news for fans of democracy as it gets around the Tory attempt to disenfranchise voters.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
No, it's due to the fact they were struggling to find and vet candidates- and now will have hardly any time - so either (a) won't be able to field a full slate or (b) some those who they do select in panic will blow-up mid campaign.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
I was talking about voters not candidates - as you say Reform need to find candidates quickly and get them to empty their social media of old posts asap.
My point was more that were a constituency not to have a Reform candidate I suspect any person arriving to vote for Reform is going to be picking a different protest candidate, unlike 2019 they won’t be voting Tory
Not much reaction from the stock market this morning. I was wondering if sentiment might improve with a prospective 'end to uncertainty'?
A lot of the FTSE100 is made up of global businesses. I wouldn't look at it for signs of sentiment about the British economy. I'd look at the exchange rate instead, which also unchanged. Somewhat surprised the worse than expected borrowing and inflation figures didn't have an impact there.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
What did he say on social care?
They cannot even begin to fix the NHS without sorting out the utter disgrace that is social care system.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
No, it's due to the fact they were struggling to find and vet candidates- and now will have hardly any time - so either (a) won't be able to field a full slate or (b) some those who they do select in panic will blow-up mid campaign.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
Where are the other parties- especially the big two- at with selection?
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
given half of Europe is pushing for a Rwanda style scheme it's only a matter of time till Starmer does a volte face and claims he supported it ll the while.
Nobody is pushing to send asylum seekers away with no right of return. As you know.
Do I ?
You're an intelligent man. You know the difference between the Denmark scheme or Australia scheme or Israeli scheme or any other "lets process applications abroad" scheme and what we had proposed.
"Everyone supports our sensible plan" is spin given by people who know they are lying for votes. That isn't you, surely.
hmmm, flattery. Do I take it youre in vote winning mode ?
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Just maybe his government should have tried harder to settle the junior doctors dispute. Too late now.
Tut, no credit where it is due, for the SNP?
They only did it to look different from yon Westminster.
There is even more bad news to come that isn't yet in the public domain...
You mean if they win Labour will have squandered Rishi's golden legacy as soon as the July inflation figures.
That's how poor Rachel Reeves really is.
It’s the August figures which are going to be bad - as that is when last years drop in energy prices disappears from the figures.
Well of course, but assuming Reeves is CoE we get to see what she's going to do about it. She can do her blame the Tories routine, but she will have a more hostile press telling her she owns it.
The Tories were blaming Gordon Brown for over 10 years, so suck it up!
Labour can blame who they want.
But they're going to have to deal with the realities of government.
Unfortunate and unfair perhaps but also difficult, painful and possibly unsolvable.
True, true and we'll see.
It will be interesting to see, when the boat numbers inevitably go up in the summer as everyone predicts they will, how Labour handle it.
Indeed.
What Labour does in government will be interesting to see on many things.
Cameron and Osborne were politically skilled enough to reward their core vote while passing the pain onto those less likely to vote Conservative.
The magic money tree also lasted for them much longer than expected - they actually missed all their fiscal targets.
I think it will be much harder for Starmer and Reeves to do likewise.
For one thing they'll quickly have to deal with the difference between the higher pay the public sector unions want and the higher public sector productivity the government needs.
South & East Rail Group SERG 🇺🇦🇫🇷 @SouthEastRailGp · 3m 1/2. Had several more WhatsApp messages from ‘Friday lunch friends’. It appears that apart from the PM and a very few close ‘advisors’, nobody knew the PM was definitely going to call an early GE. There now seems to be very open civil war from Cabinet level downwards.
South & East Rail Group SERG 🇺🇦🇫🇷 @SouthEastRailGp · 3m 2/2. Plus everyone feels that yesterday’s Downing Street ‘singing in the rain’ performance betrayed how extremely last minute everything actually was.
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney's point might be (and even if it wasn't, it should be) that wilfully clashing with Scottish holidays proves the contempt of London for Scotland, so vote SNP.
Northern Irish schools are also on holiday. Many moderate people go on holiday in early July to avoid the marching season. It could affect the Alliance vote.
There is a simple solution - postal votes. Good news for fans of democracy as it gets around the Tory attempt to disenfranchise voters.
Indeed. Though it does leave one open to not taking into account late changes in the campaign, and ditto postal strikes.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
No, it's due to the fact they were struggling to find and vet candidates- and now will have hardly any time - so either (a) won't be able to field a full slate or (b) some those who they do select in panic will blow-up mid campaign.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
Trouble is, the Conservatives are also short of candidates, and in many constituencies the current MP has yet to decide. While RefUK might have more Jareds, Conservative ones might actually get elected, and in safe seats.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Rishi is wrongly focussed on economic *news* when people's lived experience trumps tractor stats. It does not matter if the numbers go up down or sideways. What matters is the pound in your pocket, not a blip in the figures because something that happened a year ago has now dropped out of the annual rate calculation.
The reality for some, the boasting for others.
The current zeitgest is one of personal hardship and suffering.
Even if its not personally true.
This is what the right fail to get: people can be unhappy about the suffering of others, even those they don't personally know.
Plenty of us have been watching the Post Office Inquiry, and enjoying every minute of watching all those feckers squirm over their treatment of the SPMs.
We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.
PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.
The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.
If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.
You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.
Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
Yes indeed. Not that I want to spam the site with photos - what, me?? - but if you embed them with html surely that spares vanilla?
The photos really liven up walls of text, and make PB a more interesting read, like images in a magazine. They are also a good way of lightening overly intense debates (cough, trans, cough)
I'll not miss your photos of barbecued dog tbh.
The dog died nobly, and was served in a peanut satay sauce. That’s a good way to go
Seriously tho, the issue is people posting photos straight to vanilla - which burdens the site and makes everything blurry. If pb-ers can avoid doing that with html then what’s the prob? Images are often a really good way of making a point punchily - a screenshot of a tweet, a telling graph
So I think the rule should be one image per commenter posted directly to vanilla per day. Otherwise OK
BUT, not my site, not my rules. And I have a day of work to get done. Anon
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
No, it's due to the fact they were struggling to find and vet candidates- and now will have hardly any time - so either (a) won't be able to field a full slate or (b) some those who they do select in panic will blow-up mid campaign.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
Trouble is, the Conservatives are also short of candidates, and in many constituencies the current MP has yet to decide. While RefUK might have more Jareds, Conservative ones might actually get elected, and in safe seats.
With a couple of hundred new MPs, there’s almost certainly going to be another Jared in there somewhere - yet for some reason even the two largest parties don’t seem able to properly vet all their candidates.
Kay Burley asking Pat Mcfadden when will labour recognise Palestine as an independent state to placate the Muslim vote, he simply was unwilling to give a definitive answer and said there were many other issues to discuss
At least she spotted their achilles heel. They better find themselves a more acceptable answer. If Labour are going to tether themselves to an incontinent horse like Netanyahu anything could happen
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Just maybe his government should have tried harder to settle the junior doctors dispute. Too late now.
Tut, no credit where it is due, for the SNP?
They only did it to look different from yon Westminster.
To be fair, if true that would probably have been a pretty reliable shorthand for choosing policies over the past decade or so.
A lesson that Labour, short of Sir Keir ripping his mask off on 5th July to reveal a slavering red in tooth and claw proggy Soc, seem to be on the brink of forgetting.
Do we know whether it's right-wing or left-wing Tory MPs who think the idea of an election on 4th July is a bad idea?
All of them bar Rishi, and even he might change his mind. There were coherent arguments for May, and for going long, but none for July which is why people are speculating that maybe Rishi just got fed up and flounced.
The downsides for all Conservative MPs is they will lose office, and in most cases their jobs, six months earlier than necessary with no hope of a black swan, and that it will let in Starmer's evil pinko rabble whom they've spent their lives opposing.
A few hours into the election campaign and a big story already.
Rishi Sunak has told both Breakfast and the Today programme that a flight will not take off for Rwanda before the election.
Instead, he said, a flight would take off in July if - and only if - the Conservatives won the general election.
Perhaps that was one of the reasons for calling a summer election. Had the election been later, the Rwanda scheme would have had several months to prove either its success or failure.
It is also worth saying that this means that after two years, three prime ministers and four home secretaries, all of whom have made this their flagship immigration measure… there’s a decent chance a flight might never take off for Rwanda after all.
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Just maybe his government should have tried harder to settle the junior doctors dispute. Too late now.
Tut, no credit where it is due, for the SNP?
They only did it to look different from yon Westminster.
To be fair, if true that would probably have been a pretty reliable shorthand for choosing policies over the past decade or so.
A lesson that Labour, short of Sir Keir ripping his mask off on 5th July to reveal a slavering red in tooth and claw proggy Soc, seem to be on the brink of forgetting.
The next Holyrood election will be a lot more interesting than PB ****** experts seem to think.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
What did he say on social care?
They cannot even begin to fix the NHS without sorting out the utter disgrace that is social care system.
Which requires money.
And the only place to find it is from property taxes.
Are Starmer and Reeves willing to take the political hit ?
If they're going to then they need to do it straight away.
Turns out the dangerous cycling law has been dropped.
And the Telegraph have issued a correction for the nonsense 52mph.
Shame. Could've done with tracking down the 52mph cyclist with Paris Olympics around the corner.
Funny, but reflective of a touchingly out-of-date view of plod. I wouldn't trust the police to be able to track him down before the LA Olympics.
He will be on to his zimmer frame by the time they find him (or her). Telegraph headline in a few decades 'Crack down on zimmer frame users doing 52mph'.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
What did he say on social care?
They cannot even begin to fix the NHS without sorting out the utter disgrace that is social care system.
Basically: don't know, wait and see, move on. (The Tories will take a similar view).
A few hours into the election campaign and a big story already.
Rishi Sunak has told both Breakfast and the Today programme that a flight will not take off for Rwanda before the election.
Instead, he said, a flight would take off in July if - and only if - the Conservatives won the general election.
Perhaps that was one of the reasons for calling a summer election. Had the election been later, the Rwanda scheme would have had several months to prove either its success or failure.
It is also worth saying that this means that after two years, three prime ministers and four home secretaries, all of whom have made this their flagship immigration measure… there’s a decent chance a flight might never take off for Rwanda after all.
Ironically, Rishi was an early sceptic on Rwanda, but I doubt this was a factor in election timing.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
No, it's due to the fact they were struggling to find and vet candidates- and now will have hardly any time - so either (a) won't be able to field a full slate or (b) some those who they do select in panic will blow-up mid campaign.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
Where are the other parties- especially the big two- at with selection?
(Not particularly a counterpoint, but curious.)
Quite a few gaps to fill - including some late announced retirements, but mainly weaker seats.
But that's a bit different from the RefUK point. Other parties have approved candidates who have been vetted but don't yet have seats (the vetting is far from perfect, but they've not just walked in and said, "Hello - I'd like to be a Tory candidate"). They also have people like senior councillors who haven't been through the approval process but have managed to get through 25 years without a disastrous gaffe.
RefUK are extremely prone to being seen as a vehicle for individuals who are quite exotic "characters", and have been banned from the local Conservative Club for saying the sort of things that even the old buffers in there find rather offensive ("Marjorie's grandson is a gay, and she was quite upset...") They do walk in off the street, they haven't had the edges smoothed off by decades on the Audit Committee, and they will suddenly claim that Goebbels' problem was he was a bit wet. So not having sufficient approved candidates is a problem - remember, approval and selection are different things.
That's not to say there won't be stories about fruity candidates from other parties in the next few weeks - I mean, there are hundreds of candidates, we've just had Rochdale, and a Tory candidate will assuredly post something insane on Twitter. But RefUK are much more vulnerable to it.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
Startling moment on @BBCRadioScot this morning as John Swinney appears to acknowledge the SNP has no money for an election campaign, and is going to have to find the money in the next 6 weeks.
Comments
One thing overlooked from Sunak’s speech in the rain was his argument, which was: ‘I will never leave you in the darkest days alone. But those days are now over, so…’
I just don't understand July unless he believes his own economic miracle BS.
Maybe, if Rishi Sunak is lucky, no one else is listening to this Today programme interview.
As it was he just became the Wally without a brolly.
Starmer isn't Mr Flexible either - he's forensic and well-prepared, but he's no showman. I suspect he'd be more likely to avoid a debate for the converse reason... if you're 20 points up, why risk it for a biscuit?
The issue for Labour is that they need to grow the economy and grow it quickly and that be awkward.
The one good thing is that with a July election there will be downtime in August where Parliament won’t be sitting to allow the real situation to be discovered
My favourite so far
https://x.com/The_TUC/status/1793327489709641843
But they're going to have to deal with the realities of government.
Unfortunate and unfair perhaps but also difficult, painful and possibly unsolvable.
Nick Robinson: "there were three different prime ministers in a year, four different chancellors in a year, a home secretary sacked for six days then hired again and sacked again a year later, a prime minister who was forced out of office because he was judged to be lying by his own colleagues in Parliament, and another who even *you* think crashed the economy: Why on earth should people give the Conservatives another term?"
Rishi Sunak (long pause) "I'm really proud of what the Conservatives have done in office, when we came into office 14 years ago Labour had bankrupted the economy"
The photos really liven up walls of text, and make PB a more interesting read, like images in a magazine. They are also a good way of lightening overly intense debates (cough, trans, cough)
As I'm a known anorak I tend to get lots of vague acquaintances seek me out on big occasions as they know I won't shut them down in boredom.
I was voting Liberal Democrat or Labour whilst you were still Branch Secretary of the Young Conservatives.
It will be interesting to see, when the boat numbers inevitably go up in the summer as everyone predicts they will, how Labour handle it.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
The hope will have been Rishi could recover somewhat and repair damage, but he's failed.
Once in office the policy detail and its effectiveness will matter, but don't expect any market reaction to the campaign. It just doesn't matter if Labour win a big, small or no majority from that perspective.
The US election on the other hand...
At 20% (yougov) I see little chance of the vote dropping below that but 27% may be far too high and the Tory party polling range is statistically far bigger than Labour.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24338787.summer-holidays-start-scotland-year/
Not so much a national disrespect issue but a plain partisan motive and bad practice - especially for NI as well, as you say.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
Anyway it's not over 'til it's over. You Tories still might steal the win.
"Everyone supports our sensible plan" is spin given by people who know they are lying for votes. That isn't you, surely.
Tim Stanley
My point was more that were a constituency not to have a Reform candidate I suspect any person arriving to vote for Reform is going to be picking a different protest candidate, unlike 2019 they won’t be voting Tory
They cannot even begin to fix the NHS without sorting out the utter disgrace that is social care system.
(Not particularly a counterpoint, but curious.)
What Labour does in government will be interesting to see on many things.
Cameron and Osborne were politically skilled enough to reward their core vote while passing the pain onto those less likely to vote Conservative.
The magic money tree also lasted for them much longer than expected - they actually missed all their fiscal targets.
I think it will be much harder for Starmer and Reeves to do likewise.
For one thing they'll quickly have to deal with the difference between the higher pay the public sector unions want and the higher public sector productivity the government needs.
@SouthEastRailGp
·
3m
1/2. Had several more WhatsApp messages from ‘Friday lunch friends’. It appears that apart from the PM and a very few close ‘advisors’, nobody knew the PM was definitely going to call an early GE. There now seems to be very open civil war from Cabinet level downwards.
South & East Rail Group SERG 🇺🇦🇫🇷
@SouthEastRailGp
·
3m
2/2. Plus everyone feels that yesterday’s Downing Street ‘singing in the rain’ performance betrayed how extremely last minute everything actually was.
satay sauce. That’s a good way to go
Seriously tho, the issue is people posting photos straight to vanilla - which burdens the site and makes everything blurry. If pb-ers can avoid doing that with html then what’s the prob? Images are
often a really good way of making a point punchily - a screenshot of a tweet, a telling graph
So I think the rule should be one image per commenter posted directly to vanilla per day. Otherwise OK
BUT, not my site, not my rules. And I have a day of work to get done. Anon
The downsides for all Conservative MPs is they will lose office, and in most cases their jobs, six months earlier than necessary with no hope of a black swan, and that it will let in Starmer's evil pinko rabble whom they've spent their lives opposing.
Chief political correspondent
A few hours into the election campaign and a big story already.
Rishi Sunak has told both Breakfast and the Today programme that a flight will not take off for Rwanda before the election.
Instead, he said, a flight would take off in July if - and only if - the Conservatives won the general election.
Perhaps that was one of the reasons for calling a summer election. Had the election been later, the Rwanda scheme would have had several months to prove either its success or failure.
It is also worth saying that this means that after two years, three prime ministers and four home secretaries, all of whom have made this their flagship immigration measure… there’s a decent chance a flight might never take off for Rwanda after all.
And the only place to find it is from property taxes.
Are Starmer and Reeves willing to take the political hit ?
If they're going to then they need to do it straight away.
But that's a bit different from the RefUK point. Other parties have approved candidates who have been vetted but don't yet have seats (the vetting is far from perfect, but they've not just walked in and said, "Hello - I'd like to be a Tory candidate"). They also have people like senior councillors who haven't been through the approval process but have managed to get through 25 years without a disastrous gaffe.
RefUK are extremely prone to being seen as a vehicle for individuals who are quite exotic "characters", and have been banned from the local Conservative Club for saying the sort of things that even the old buffers in there find rather offensive ("Marjorie's grandson is a gay, and she was quite upset...") They do walk in off the street, they haven't had the edges smoothed off by decades on the Audit Committee, and they will suddenly claim that Goebbels' problem was he was a bit wet. So not having sufficient approved candidates is a problem - remember, approval and selection are different things.
That's not to say there won't be stories about fruity candidates from other parties in the next few weeks - I mean, there are hundreds of candidates, we've just had Rochdale, and a Tory candidate will assuredly post something insane on Twitter. But RefUK are much more vulnerable to it.
https://x.com/staylorish/status/1793544917865955356