Farage: "July 4th: Independence Day in America and for this country, Deliverance Day from a bunch of charlatans who call themselves Conservatives but govern as big state liberals."
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
So May 2nd would have been good idea then? 😃
Combining the general with local elections would probably have saved a few dozen Tory councillors and the odd mayor by dragging out stay-at-home Conservative voters, so there was a certain electoral logic to it, as there was for going long. It is hard to see the case for the 4th of July.
4th July Avoids The no money left budget as election launch pad The morgue of a conference Record boat crossings. Boats not stopped as promised. No planes taking off to Rwanda as promised. An interim covid report An election with food prices, energy bills and inflation heading upwards. Again. Defections. Party turbulence. More voters remortgaging as interest rate cuts on pause for what seems like forever. (Farage coming back some would add, I don’t buy this one as serious impact so it’s in brackets) Full prisons, police told to stop arresting people. WTF 🤷♀️
These are just the known knowns in favour of July 4th over autumn.
The Autumn Statement (budget would have been fine as any measures would come into effect after the election). We already have record boat crossings and immigration. No-one cares about defections outside the bubble. Police have already been told to go easy owing to full prisons.
So there is no real case for July, unlike for May (locals) or playing it long.
“The Autumn Statement (budget would have been fine as any measures would come into effect after the election).”
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
Your post is good at a skim, but what detail you adding to Brutal Budget?
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
Except if there'd been an October election called in September, there wouldn't have been an autumn budget either. Or even a November election called at, or immediately after, conference.
Why not? You can hold your fiscal events when you want, as frequently as you want. And the WHOLE point of waiting was to shape election launch with rabbits from hat. After today’s borrowing figures, the hat was bare, and the Inflation announcement made interest rate cuts less likely.
It was a trigger moment.
I remember you as one of those telling me no one calls an election 20% behind with six months still to go, it’s definitely not this side of summer recess. You thought the whole suggestion was completely potty. How has your day been?
The Tories ran away from the autumn budget. And Labour will spend this campaign running away from the Autumn budget too. I can even give you the exact words Rachel Reeves will use
“If you win this election, will you hold a budget this year?” “We can’t answer that yet, because it depends on…”
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
I'm genuinely surprised Sunak has gone for July.
As some have said, maybe it's a cynical decision and he knows his time is up and he's just ready to move onto other things. It's not like he needs the money.
The other alternative is he knows the the economy is getting worse (inflation higher than predicted, remortgages sucking more and more disposable income out of the economy) and the size of the defeat will be greater the later he goes.
But kudos to him for calling it now rather than clinging on til the bitter end, and kudos to those on PB who called it right.
I'm not sure "kudos" is the right word for Sunak. I got it wrong in that i thought the autumn would allow a few straws of hope for the Tories, but I think that the voter vault data trends must have been so genuinely scary that it forced them to go now and be decimated for a Parliament, rather than go later and be eliminated for decades.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
So May 2nd would have been good idea then? 😃
Combining the general with local elections would probably have saved a few dozen Tory councillors and the odd mayor by dragging out stay-at-home Conservative voters, so there was a certain electoral logic to it, as there was for going long. It is hard to see the case for the 4th of July.
4th July Avoids The no money left budget as election launch pad The morgue of a conference Record boat crossings. Boats not stopped as promised. No planes taking off to Rwanda as promised. An interim covid report An election with food prices, energy bills and inflation heading upwards. Again. Defections. Party turbulence. More voters remortgaging as interest rate cuts on pause for what seems like forever. (Farage coming back some would add, I don’t buy this one as serious impact so it’s in brackets) Full prisons, police told to stop arresting people. WTF 🤷♀️
These are just the known knowns in favour of July 4th over autumn.
The Autumn Statement (budget would have been fine as any measures would come into effect after the election). We already have record boat crossings and immigration. No-one cares about defections outside the bubble. Police have already been told to go easy owing to full prisons.
So there is no real case for July, unlike for May (locals) or playing it long.
“The Autumn Statement (budget would have been fine as any measures would come into effect after the election).”
Have you ever heard of the OBR? 🙂
“We already have record boat crossings”
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Last year's autumn statement came on 22 November so a November or December election would have nixed it. No need to go in July, even if that was the motivation, which I doubt.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
Your post is good at a skim, but what detail you adding to Brutal Budget?
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
Except if there'd been an October election called in September, there wouldn't have been an autumn budget either. Or even a November election called at, or immediately after, conference.
Why not? You can hold your fiscal events when you want, as frequently as you want. And the WHOLE point of waiting was to shape election launch with rabbits from hat. After today’s borrowing figures, the hat was bare, and the Inflation announcement made interest rate cuts less likely.
It was a trigger moment.
I remember you as one of those telling me no one calls an election 20% behind with six months still to go, it’s definitely not this side of summer recess. You thought the whole suggestion was completely potty. How has your day been?
The Tories ran away from the autumn budget. And Labour will spend this campaign running away from the Autumn budget too. I can even give you the exact words Rachel Reeves will use
“If you win this election, will you hold a budget this year?” “We can’t answer that yet, because it depends on…”
It’s also possible it’s been his default plan all along?
When politicians come up with an unusual way of putting things, often it’s as cover.
The election in “the second half of the year” line, originally trotted out in the pre-May election speculation, focused attention on the back end, since it fitted with most people’s assumption of an autumn GE and only appeared to be ruling out January.
But it was interesting that he reached for the same “second half of the year” line again yesterday morning, as rumours began to circulate. As I said at lunchtime, July is in the second half of the year.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
I don’t think anyone inside the Labour party has any truck with complacency. They are still scarred by 1992 and they will assume absolutely nothing.
With a gentle comment to Moon Rabbit, getting one thing correct (the timing of the election) does not mean anything else you have predicted is correct. There are, let’s say, 200 regular posters on here. A few of us were bound to get the right month.
But nonetheless, well done. A very good call. And @TSE.
My view: a Labour landslide. Not based on a stonking Labour share but an abysmal Conservative one, a very smart tactical voting result for LibDems, and Labour recovering a large number of seats in Scotland.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS @Taz and @Mexicanpete are famously gushing about the prospect of a Labour victory.
Sheer hubris.
I wouldn’t go as far as gushing but the Tories deserve to be put out of office.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
I'm genuinely surprised Sunak has gone for July.
As some have said, maybe it's a cynical decision and he knows his time is up and he's just ready to move onto other things. It's not like he needs the money.
The other alternative is he knows the the economy is getting worse (inflation higher than predicted, remortgages sucking more and more disposable income out of the economy) and the size of the defeat will be greater the later he goes.
But kudos to him for calling it now rather than clinging on til the bitter end, and kudos to those on PB who called it right.
I'm not sure "kudos" is the right word for Sunak. I got it wrong in that i thought the autumn would allow a few straws of hope for the Tories, but I think that the voter vault data trends must have been so genuinely scary that it forced them to go now and be decimated for a Parliament, rather than go later and be eliminated for decades.
Yes, he missed the best option - May - but this is certainly preferable to November by which time an extinction event would have been a real possibility.
Of course we have to see how the campaign unfolds but for the moment I'm upgrading my forecast of Tory seats to somewhere in the 150-175 range.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS @Taz and @Mexicanpete are famously gushing about the prospect of a Labour victory.
Sheer hubris.
I wouldn’t go as far as gushing but the Tories deserve to be put out of office.
Yes. There’s a big difference between disdain and disgust for what has gone on these past 5 years and assuming a Labour victory.
A lot of people this time will be voting against the Conservative Party rather than for any of the alternatives.
Does this mean any Lab seat that has not finished selection will now have NEC/leader approved candidates parachuted in?
What will happen now in Islington North?
Paul Mason presumably.
It does put us back in Jared country. Even though some say the Conservatives are further behind, not least because many current MPs will not stand but have yet to announce the fact, it is only the clown candidates who get elected that will matter in the end. (And the two or three who trip up over Gaza or some such before July.)
Nigel Farage is on everyone's mind. Will he be leader? Will he stand? Putting Farage to one side, RefUK told us they will stand in every constituency. Some of us here reported our scepticism. Either RefUK won't put up anything like a full slate, which helps the Conservatives, or they will make a deal with the Tories, which of course also helps the Conservatives.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS @Taz and @Mexicanpete are famously gushing about the prospect of a Labour victory.
Sheer hubris.
I wouldn’t go as far as gushing but the Tories deserve to be put out of office.
Yes. There’s a big difference between disdain and disgust for what has gone on these past 5 years and assuming a Labour victory.
A lot of people this time will be voting against the Conservative Party rather than for any of the alternatives.
I’d guess this will be the theme and the historical narrative.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
I'm genuinely surprised Sunak has gone for July.
As some have said, maybe it's a cynical decision and he knows his time is up and he's just ready to move onto other things. It's not like he needs the money.
The other alternative is he knows the the economy is getting worse (inflation higher than predicted, remortgages sucking more and more disposable income out of the economy) and the size of the defeat will be greater the later he goes.
But kudos to him for calling it now rather than clinging on til the bitter end, and kudos to those on PB who called it right.
I'm not sure "kudos" is the right word for Sunak. I got it wrong in that i thought the autumn would allow a few straws of hope for the Tories, but I think that the voter vault data trends must have been so genuinely scary that it forced them to go now and be decimated for a Parliament, rather than go later and be eliminated for decades.
Yes, he missed the best option - May - but this is certainly preferable to November by which time an extinction event would have been a real possibility.
Of course we have to see how the campaign unfolds but for the moment I'm upgrading my forecast of Tory seats to somewhere in the 150-175 range.
Morning all. Random thoughts on the surprise news.
Damn you Sunak, getting Vennells off the front pages.
The photo of a drenched PM that dominates the papers, kind of sums up his life at this moment in time.
I guess he was hoping to have caught opponents off guard, but how much has he also caught CCHQ off guard? They still seem to think Johnson is PM, given the ‘personality’ of their stunts and social media output.
Please can some rich guy give £350k to Count Binface, so we can have a “screw the lot of you” option in every contituency.
Did anybody predict the right date in Benpointer's Excellent Competition?
I was hopelessly out with October 14th, though better than the most popular choice which I think was a month later.
To be fair to everyone, predicting the election date is even harder than predicting who a party membership will choose as their leader. We’re not dealing with a mainstream understanding but something more esoteric where inside knowledge is needed. In this case, the knowledge of the inside of Rishi Sunak’s head.
For this reason I prefer to bet on issues where I’m not having to second guess the actions of unreliable people. Just my take.
Two seats I think the Conservatives will definitely hold are Meriden and Solihull. Andy Street could go for Solihull maybe
Would be great to see Andy Street stand - exactly the sort of person we need to be encouraging into politics, rather than those who have done nothing except politics since university.
Two seats I think the Conservatives will definitely hold are Meriden and Solihull. Andy Street could go for Solihull maybe
Would be great to see Andy Street stand - exactly the sort of person we need to be encouraging into politics, rather than those who have done nothing except politics since university.
He was much more pro-cycling than his Labour opponent in the Mayoral election, which suggests he is not vulnerable to the kind of volatile culture war politics that has taken hold (on both sides).
Exactly the kind of person who could whisk the Tories back in. The question is how long will that take? He would be 70 after two Labour terms.
Was out last night and inevitably the conversation got onto the election. Lots of comments about why didn’t Rishi have someone with a brolly, or plan the announcement indoors. Someone said that the press would have found something to attack him on however he went about it which resulted in this exchange. A: “Yup, he probably couldn’t win whatever he did” B: “That probably sums up the whole election too”
I’m not sure generalised pity gets you anywhere in politics.
Two seats I think the Conservatives will definitely hold are Meriden and Solihull. Andy Street could go for Solihull maybe
Would be great to see Andy Street stand - exactly the sort of person we need to be encouraging into politics, rather than those who have done nothing except politics since university.
He was much more pro-cycling than his Labour opponent in the Mayoral election, which suggests he is not vulnerable to the kind of volatile culture war politics that has taken hold (on both sides).
Exactly the kind of person who could whisk the Tories back in. The question is how long will that take? He would be 70 after two Labour terms.
Imho some tories, including on here, are now desperately searching around for their next saviour. Last month it was Penny Mordaunt.
Andy Street did well in the West Midlands but is yet to be tested as a member of parliament. He is not without blemish after a questionable period in charge of JLP. Many of John Lewis’ current problems stem from his time, when he expanded instead of battening down. His Birmingham vanity store is a disastrous case in point.
He’s saying the right things to bring the Conservatives back to the centre but it will take a long time, I suspect, before the Party has the sense to do that and they may yet rip themselves apart in the process. By the time they do he, as you imply, may be yesterday’s person.
Does this mean any Lab seat that has not finished selection will now have NEC/leader approved candidates parachuted in?
What will happen now in Islington North?
Paul Mason presumably.
It does put us back in Jared country. Even though some say the Conservatives are further behind, not least because many current MPs will not stand but have yet to announce the fact, it is only the clown candidates who get elected that will matter in the end. (And the two or three who trip up over Gaza or some such before July.)
Nigel Farage is on everyone's mind. Will he be leader? Will he stand? Putting Farage to one side, RefUK told us they will stand in every constituency. Some of us here reported our scepticism. Either RefUK won't put up anything like a full slate, which helps the Conservatives, or they will make a deal with the Tories, which of course also helps the Conservatives.
There's a story going round that Sunak saw internal polling which suggested the Tories might lose way more votes to the Refukers were Farage to become leader. And the snap election is an attempt to forestall that.
Which would at least account for the decision, and its less than optimal presentation.
Two seats I think the Conservatives will definitely hold are Meriden and Solihull. Andy Street could go for Solihull maybe
Would be great to see Andy Street stand - exactly the sort of person we need to be encouraging into politics, rather than those who have done nothing except politics since university.
He was much more pro-cycling than his Labour opponent in the Mayoral election, which suggests he is not vulnerable to the kind of volatile culture war politics that has taken hold (on both sides).
Exactly the kind of person who could whisk the Tories back in. The question is how long will that take? He would be 70 after two Labour terms.
If he were American, that would be seen as barely out of school!
The *third oldest* Presidential candidate this year (Kennedy, Jr) would be 75 at the end of his first term if elected.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 20, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Hopefully this is expectations management but would be daft to blow a big opportunity to take seats in Surrey and Oxfordshire.
Two seats I think the Conservatives will definitely hold are Meriden and Solihull. Andy Street could go for Solihull maybe
Would be great to see Andy Street stand - exactly the sort of person we need to be encouraging into politics, rather than those who have done nothing except politics since university.
With Captain Peacock as LotO and hence potential PM you are essentially asking the voters to accept Michael Fabricant as First Lady, so, no. Well, it's a no to anybody who as any interest in the tories ever forming another government.
Markets have paid out on date of GE, BFX not yet. I am about £130 up, as I did have a reasonable chunk on July-Sept quarter (expecting September).
I see BFX is odds on for Con down 200+ seats, currently 1.69. With a starting position of 365 that would imply punters are more pessimistic than most here on Con seat numbers.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
Your post is good at a skim, but what detail you adding to Brutal Budget?
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
Except if there'd been an October election called in September, there wouldn't have been an autumn budget either. Or even a November election called at, or immediately after, conference.
Why not? You can hold your fiscal events when you want, as frequently as you want. And the WHOLE point of waiting was to shape election launch with rabbits from hat. After today’s borrowing figures, the hat was bare, and the Inflation announcement made interest rate cuts less likely.
It was a trigger moment.
I remember you as one of those telling me no one calls an election 20% behind with six months still to go, it’s definitely not this side of summer recess. You thought the whole suggestion was completely potty. How has your day been?
The Tories ran away from the autumn budget. And Labour will spend this campaign running away from the Autumn budget too. I can even give you the exact words Rachel Reeves will use
“If you win this election, will you hold a budget this year?” “We can’t answer that yet, because it depends on…”
Yeah I made a similar comment earlier. The borrowing figure was terrible and there is no sign that growth is yet generating more tax revenues. The trend has been for borrowing to come in high. A November budget would have been a thin and difficult affair, more likely to lose votes than win them.
Except he didn’t tell us why. He didn’t explain what he wants to do except his long term plan that is made up as he goes along from event to event.
The Tory party has run out of ideas and vision. Such ideas (and I use the word loosely) that they fall upon fall apart almost immediately as we saw with the University students dependents this week and as we have been seeing for a long time with Rwanda.
It very much resembles Gordon Brown in 2010. Just exhausted.
Two seats I think the Conservatives will definitely hold are Meriden and Solihull. Andy Street could go for Solihull maybe
Would be great to see Andy Street stand - exactly the sort of person we need to be encouraging into politics, rather than those who have done nothing except politics since university.
With Captain Peacock as LotO and hence potential PM you are essentially asking the voters to accept Michael Fabricant as First Lady, so, no. Well, it's a no to anybody who as any interest in the tories ever forming another government.
“Michael Fabricant as First Lady,”
We don’t have a presidential system like US, there is no First Lady in UK politics. Though, it’s another way our culture is too influenced by US, starting to become a thing in this country too. UK Media is too fascinated by the US, it treats it like it’s part of us, not a silly messed up alien country.
If we did, then Michael would be First Man, not First Lady.
Comments
Con 52.7%
Lab 28.7%
LD 13.3%
Green 3.9%
Ind 1.5%
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/1985
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1793323735098744990
Have you ever heard of the OBR? 🙂
“We already have record boat crossings”
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
https://www.nytimes.com/games/wordle/index.html
It was a trigger moment.
I remember you as one of those telling me no one calls an election 20% behind with six months still to go, it’s definitely not this side of summer recess. You thought the whole suggestion was completely potty.
How has your day been?
The Tories ran away from the autumn budget. And Labour will spend this campaign running away from the Autumn budget too. I can even give you the exact words Rachel Reeves will use
“If you win this election, will you hold a budget this year?”
“We can’t answer that yet, because it depends on…”
It can be incredibly distressing when a school closes, because it fractures a preciously invested community.
Real commiserations.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pc5az4uwTaE
When politicians come up with an unusual way of putting things, often it’s as cover.
The election in “the second half of the year” line, originally trotted out in the pre-May election speculation, focused attention on the back end, since it fitted with most people’s assumption of an autumn GE and only appeared to be ruling out January.
But it was interesting that he reached for the same “second half of the year” line again yesterday morning, as rumours began to circulate. As I said at lunchtime, July is in the second half of the year.
But nonetheless, well done. A very good call. And @TSE.
So … what’s going to happen?
Labour 42.5%
Conservatives 28.5%
Lib Dems 9%
Seats:
Labour 421
Cons 160
LibDems 30
SNP 14
Labour Majority: 185
Of course we have to see how the campaign unfolds but for the moment I'm upgrading my forecast of Tory seats to somewhere in the 150-175 range.
A lot of people this time will be voting against the Conservative Party rather than for any of the alternatives.
I was hopelessly out with October 14th, though better than the most popular choice which I think was a month later.
Damn you Sunak, getting Vennells off the front pages.
The photo of a drenched PM that dominates the papers, kind of sums up his life at this moment in time.
I guess he was hoping to have caught opponents off guard, but how much has he also caught CCHQ off guard? They still seem to think Johnson is PM, given the ‘personality’ of their stunts and social media output.
Please can some rich guy give £350k to Count Binface, so we can have a “screw the lot of you” option in every contituency.
Pagan was closest with 6 June. Plenty of takers for 2 May - not bad, but no cigar, folks.
For this reason I prefer to bet on issues where I’m not having to second guess the actions of unreliable people. Just my take.
Can't remember who it was.
Surely an error for comedy?
Exactly the kind of person who could whisk the Tories back in. The question is how long will that take? He would be 70 after two Labour terms.
Sorry. No offence intended, Alan.
A: “Yup, he probably couldn’t win whatever he did”
B: “That probably sums up the whole election too”
I’m not sure generalised pity gets you anywhere in politics.
Andy Street did well in the West Midlands but is yet to be tested as a member of parliament. He is not without blemish after a questionable period in charge of JLP. Many of John Lewis’ current problems stem from his time, when he expanded instead of battening down. His Birmingham vanity store is a disastrous case in point.
He’s saying the right things to bring the Conservatives back to the centre but it will take a long time, I suspect, before the Party has the sense to do that and they may yet rip themselves apart in the process. By the time they do he, as you imply, may be yesterday’s person.
And the snap election is an attempt to forestall that.
Which would at least account for the decision, and its less than optimal presentation.
The *third oldest* Presidential candidate this year (Kennedy, Jr) would be 75 at the end of his first term if elected.
That’s the only reason I can see for keeping it outside .
My current thoughts are Lab 425 Con 150 LD 30 SNP 20 others 25
NEW THREAD
I see BFX is odds on for Con down 200+ seats, currently 1.69. With a starting position of 365 that would imply punters are more pessimistic than most here on Con seat numbers.
The Tory party has run out of ideas and vision. Such ideas (and I use the word loosely) that they fall upon fall apart almost immediately as we saw with the University students dependents this week and as we have been seeing for a long time with Rwanda.
It very much resembles Gordon Brown in 2010. Just exhausted.
We don’t have a presidential system like US, there is no First Lady in UK politics. Though, it’s another way our culture is too influenced by US, starting to become a thing in this country too. UK Media is too fascinated by the US, it treats it like it’s part of us, not a silly messed up alien country.
If we did, then Michael would be First Man, not First Lady.