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Sunak’s decision looks even more courageous – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited June 8 in General
Sunak’s decision looks even more courageous – politicalbetting.com

What do the public think of the different leaders?Rishi Sunak: Satisfied 17%, Dissatisfied 72%Keir Starmer: Satisfied 32% Dissatisfied 50%And satisfaction with the government: Government Satisfied 12% Dissatisfied 81%https://t.co/uJAnqqPttO pic.twitter.com/pdds0hlpdf

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Maybe Rishi wants to spend the autumn in California? Though at least it avoids canvassing in the winter cold
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,731
    So why does Rishi want to distract so much from Paula Vennells’ testimony to the Post Office Inquiry?
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Turns out she's not the "unluckiest CEO in Britain" after all. Caught a hell of a break there.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    Infamy? Infamy! Who's got it in for Sunak?

    Doesn't work. :(
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    Infamy? Infamy! Who's got it in for Sunak?

    Doesn't work. :(

    Edit: And my second first of the day. Wake up, you slackers.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Bray has been banned from the streets around Whitehall lol
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Infamy? Infamy! Who's got it in for Sunak?

    Doesn't work. :(

    Edit: And my second first of the day. Wake up, you slackers.
    Don't worry. "Second first" is how the Tories will be trying to spin all those seats they lose.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Bray has been banned from the streets around Whitehall lol

    Hurrah.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Infamy? Infamy! Who's got it in for Sunak?

    Doesn't work. :(

    Edit: And my second first of the day. Wake up, you slackers.
    Don't worry. "Second first" is how the Tories will be trying to spin all those seats they lose.
    They won't do that well.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Infamy? Infamy! Who's got it in for Sunak?

    Doesn't work. :(

    Edit: And my second first of the day. Wake up, you slackers.
    You came fifth. Even Trump doesn't have that level of chutzpah.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Anything happen whilst I was out today? ;)

    I feel a little out of touch - went to a funeral in a village church, where there was no mobile reception in either the church, churchyard, or pub (for the wake). I can't remember last time I was at a do where there was no mobile reception. Certainly pre-covid...

    And this was not a remote area.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462
    (FPT) Predictions: Starmer and Sunak are both judged to have had a better than expected campaign.
    The polls are pretty static for most of the campaign but there are signs of a late swing to the Tories, who do better than the polls suggest, limiting Labour's majority to double figures.
    Galloway gets a seat.
    Labour overtakes the SNP in Scotland.
    Labour does well in the North and South of England but less so in the Midlands and outer London.
    Reform do badly.
    The Tories choose a more centrist than expected leader after the election, but the party is left bitterly divided.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    edited May 22

    Anything happen whilst I was out today? ;)

    I feel a little out of touch - went to a funeral in a village church, where there was no mobile reception in either the church, churchyard, or pub (for the wake). I can't remember last time I was at a do where there was no mobile reception. Certainly pre-covid...

    And this was not a remote area.

    Obviously haven't been on SWR, LNER, EMR, and no doubt any other train line recently.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733

    Now everyone joins me in my working assumption, the General Election is this side of recess, and not the autumn or winter.

    What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.

    I still stand by the election result I posted here two months ago, hand in hand with my 4th July election day prediction:

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    I was universally laughed at when I predicted both day and result 2 months ago. Well you’re not laughing now, are you?

    Lol. Congratulations on predicting 4 July – among your other three/four/five predictions!

    In all fairness to you, you did get the rationale correct at some point at least, which others did not.

    You should have had the courage of your convictions. But like many a bettor, you lost your nerve.

    I know the feeling all too well.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 22
    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462

    Bray has been banned from the streets around Whitehall lol

    One person for whom things did not get better.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    Anything happen whilst I was out today? ;)

    I feel a little out of touch - went to a funeral in a village church, where there was no mobile reception in either the church, churchyard, or pub (for the wake). I can't remember last time I was at a do where there was no mobile reception. Certainly pre-covid...

    And this was not a remote area.

    Bit bloody irritating for you not to be able to check Twitter whilst they were burying some poor sod. Thoughts and prayers etc.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462
    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    Isn't he quite likely to lose his seat?
  • Options
    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 638
    Just a note on Mr Sunak's election campaign.

    It has started now by any definition with him looking like a drowned rat as his speech was overshadowed by a tune that reminds everyone of 1997. You don't have to do these things outdoors you know. It is not a good sign for how the next 44 days will go.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited May 22
    At the end of the day if the Tory position was going to get worse, not better, then going now would still ultimately be the right call for the party, even if they get a shellacking in 6 weeks.

    Obviously it won't now be possible to prove that things would have gotten worse, but I think there's a damn strong case it would have.

    Now down to Reform to see if they can turn a big loss into an apocalyptic one.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805

    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    Isn't he quite likely to lose his seat?
    He can pick his seat.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    If the polls are right then he's going to be the new 'Were you up for Portillo?' moment for this election.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    Isn't he quite likely to lose his seat?
    I thought he wasn't standing again!
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    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 638
    Prediction - the new Lab Govt will bliock any new Tory Peerages except one for Lord Levido (for services to the Lab Party).
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Which party will lose a greater proportion of its MPs - Conservative or SNP?
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    Based on the last couple of Tory leaders, he'd need to be substantially shorter, yes.

    I'll get my coat. In much the same way that Sunak might have been well advised to get his.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Which party will lose a greater proportion of its MPs - Conservative or SNP?

    I don't think either of those parties will be the "winner".
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    She's crafty like that.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Sandpit said:

    So why does Rishi want to distract so much from Paula Vennells’ testimony to the Post Office Inquiry?

    He's got a job lined up with Fujitsu?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited May 22

    Which party will lose a greater proportion of its MPs - Conservative or SNP?

    Hmm, tough one.

    I'm going with the Tories, I think they'll be looking at circa 50%, SNP anywhere from 20-40%.

    Nothing but gut feeling, subject to change day by day.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    Which party will lose a greater proportion of its MPs - Conservative or SNP?

    SNP, I suspect. Tories losing half to 180 remains, notwithstanding some models, low end of expectations. SNP losing half to 24, I suspect Swinny would bite your hand off for just now.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,564

    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    If the polls are right then he's going to be the new 'Were you up for Portillo?' moment for this election.
    There’ll be a few of them.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Three aims for the Conservatives from this election.

    Firstly, avoid falling too far behind in seats. To stay above 170 seats. Secondly, this is the Conservative Party nadir, to see off the threat from Reform at this nadir, stealing their vote, smashing their arguments, so as the Conservatives return to popularity in coming years, it will be easier with Reform out of the way. Thirdly, in the inevitable leadership election after this defeat, a new leader MUST work to return the Party to the USP that made them own the last 100 years of British Politics, not a leader that will take them further down the road of the alt right MAGA junk imported from America. Further down that road is further away from the UK electorate.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited May 22
    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    Even in the unlikely event he holds his seat from the LDs, Conservative members will almost certainly blame him and Rishi for likely heavy defeat and want rightwing red meat from the new leader in Opposition, much more than ex Remainer Hunt could offer them
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,731
    Can one ever find a Jason Beer KC at the front of the famous ‘cab rank’, or is he always on private bookings at a couple of grand an hour?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    In short, Starmer's approval is at or just below Johnson levels, while Sunak's is around Corbyn levels.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    Infamy? Infamy! Who's got it in for Sunak?

    Doesn't work. :(

    Edit: And my second first of the day. Wake up, you slackers.
    Don't worry. "Second first" is how the Tories will be trying to spin all those seats they lose.
    It was first when I posted but I seem to have been usurped.

    Anyway, I've been on the juice so I better keep quiet for the rest of the nite.

    Enjoy the excitement everyone.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Taz said:

    ping said:

    I don't understand why Hunt is 50/1 next Con leader.

    Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?

    If the polls are right then he's going to be the new 'Were you up for Portillo?' moment for this election.
    There’ll be a few of them.
    In 1997 seven cabinet ministers lost their seats, I reckon more will be culled this time around.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    My predictions (Wild A**ed Guess-style):.

    *) A Labour majority of at least 100. Perhaps 150.
    *) Discontent with Labour's stance on Israel hurts Labour, but not as much as Reform hurt the Conservatives.
    *) In Scotland, Labour get more seats than the SNP.
    *) Within three months, there is a scandal involving one of the new Labour MPs.
    *) Labour to relatively underperform in Wales, but still get >25 of the reduced number of seats.
    *) Sunak resigns; the new Tory leader is from the batsh*t insane wing of the party.
    *) Starmer to get less than 60% in his own constituency due to a raft of anto-Starmer candidates, but obvs. retain his seat.
    *) Sunak to et less than 50% in his own constituency, but retain his seat.
    *) Turnout to be less than 65%. A desire to chuck out the Tories outweighed by a yawn over Starmer.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
    I'm sure she didn't.

    But that doesn't absolve her of the fact that she chose the easy and lazy path. And because she did that, lives were ruined.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Sandpit said:

    Can one ever find a Jason Beer KC at the front of the famous ‘cab rank’, or is he always on private bookings at a couple of grand an hour?

    He's a deputy High Court Judge but he's an expert on police law and public inquiries.

    He has provided this end-to-end service in a number of the most prominent cases of the last two decades. His caseload has included: the Stephen Lawrence Inquiry, the Hutton Inquiry, the Shipman Inquiry, the ‘Phone Hacking’ Claims, the Baha Mousa Inquiry, the Al-Sweady Inquiry, the Hillsborough Inquests, the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, Sir Cliff Richard’s claim for misuse of private information, the Grenfell Tower Inquiry, the Fishmongers Hall Inquests, the Facial Recognition judicial review, the Harry Dunn judicial review, the Shoreham Airshow Inquests, the Plymouth Shootings Inquests, and the EncroChat Claims.

    He is presently instructed in:

    The Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
    The Covid 19 Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
    The Grenfell Tower Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
    The Thirlwall Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
    The Malkinson Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Greater Manchester Police
    The Dawn Sturgess Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Counter Terrorism Policing South East
    The Jalal Uddin Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
    The Undercover Policing Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for a group of undercover police officers
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    edited May 22
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
    I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.

    If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562

    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!

    You do have to wonder. I mean. It’s not IMPOSSIBLE. But how unlikely? Leicester winning the Premier League likely?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,731

    Sandpit said:

    Can one ever find a Jason Beer KC at the front of the famous ‘cab rank’, or is he always on private bookings at a couple of grand an hour?

    He's a deputy High Court Judge but he's an expert on police law and public inquiries.

    He has provided this end-to-end service in a number of the most prominent cases of the last two decades. His caseload has included: the Stephen Lawrence Inquiry, the Hutton Inquiry, the Shipman Inquiry, the ‘Phone Hacking’ Claims, the Baha Mousa Inquiry, the Al-Sweady Inquiry, the Hillsborough Inquests, the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, Sir Cliff Richard’s claim for misuse of private information, the Grenfell Tower Inquiry, the Fishmongers Hall Inquests, the Facial Recognition judicial review, the Harry Dunn judicial review, the Shoreham Airshow Inquests, the Plymouth Shootings Inquests, and the EncroChat Claims.

    He is presently instructed in:

    The Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
    The Covid 19 Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
    The Grenfell Tower Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
    The Thirlwall Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
    The Malkinson Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Greater Manchester Police
    The Dawn Sturgess Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Counter Terrorism Policing South East
    The Jalal Uddin Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
    The Undercover Policing Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for a group of undercover police officers
    F***ing Hell!!!
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,419
    oh joy, I now get the option to deface my ballot paper over two different candidates this time. The Labour candidate (my local councillor who will win bigly) and this idiot...

    https://x.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1793336890063503415
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    I'll have a stab at the predictions fun too
    Labour Majority double figures, upper end thereof
    Galloway holds Rochdale and another WPB candidate wins a seat
    Labour high 30s, Tory high 20s
    Tory gain 3 seats, 2 in Scotland, 1 in England
    Reform win one seat
    Greens win 3 seats
    LDs under 40 seats but over 25
    3 indies win seats
    Turnout 62%
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
    I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.

    If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
    Oh, I think she didn't want to know. I suspect that strong hints were given to her, and she chose to remain ignorant.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    I watch the BBC news channel from time to time in the evenings. They manage to have really quite smart American guests very often. The very same news channel today seems incapable of mustering a British person of any sense at all. The presenter started her commentary saying that she had prior information all along. Baffling.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can one ever find a Jason Beer KC at the front of the famous ‘cab rank’, or is he always on private bookings at a couple of grand an hour?

    He's a deputy High Court Judge but he's an expert on police law and public inquiries.

    He has provided this end-to-end service in a number of the most prominent cases of the last two decades. His caseload has included: the Stephen Lawrence Inquiry, the Hutton Inquiry, the Shipman Inquiry, the ‘Phone Hacking’ Claims, the Baha Mousa Inquiry, the Al-Sweady Inquiry, the Hillsborough Inquests, the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, Sir Cliff Richard’s claim for misuse of private information, the Grenfell Tower Inquiry, the Fishmongers Hall Inquests, the Facial Recognition judicial review, the Harry Dunn judicial review, the Shoreham Airshow Inquests, the Plymouth Shootings Inquests, and the EncroChat Claims.

    He is presently instructed in:

    The Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
    The Covid 19 Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
    The Grenfell Tower Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
    The Thirlwall Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
    The Malkinson Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Greater Manchester Police
    The Dawn Sturgess Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Counter Terrorism Policing South East
    The Jalal Uddin Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
    The Undercover Policing Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for a group of undercover police officers
    F***ing Hell!!!
    I feel sorry for Andrew Malkinson but the cab rank rules apply.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    biggles said:

    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!

    You do have to wonder. I mean. It’s not IMPOSSIBLE. But how unlikely? Leicester winning the Premier League likely?
    I took it. It's not beyond the realms of possibility and those odds are value – they might trade okay, too.
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    FffsFffs Posts: 55

    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!

    I'd assume there will be some volatility during the campaign, so as a trading bet, perhaps it actually is value. The question is, what's your exit price?
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    edited May 22
    Sandpit said:

    Can one ever find a Jason Beer KC at the front of the famous ‘cab rank’, or is he always on private bookings at a couple of grand an hour?

    Simply not how the cab rank system works. What they can't do is refuse a case if they are available and fairly remunerated. But an in demand silk is entirely able to charge high fees - far higher than a newly qualified barrister making her way, for instance. What they cannot do is discriminate between those willing to pay those eyewatering fees.

    On the "cab rank" analogy, the cabby can refuse a passenger if said passenger can't pay the fare.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    edited May 22

    I'll have a stab at the predictions fun too
    Labour Majority double figures, upper end thereof
    Galloway holds Rochdale and another WPB candidate wins a seat
    Labour high 30s, Tory high 20s
    Tory gain 3 seats, 2 in Scotland, 1 in England
    Reform win one seat
    Greens win 3 seats
    LDs under 40 seats but over 25
    3 indies win seats
    Turnout 62%

    Probably.
    No.
    Too low for a combined figure.
    Won't happen in England, just about possible in Scotland.
    Just about possible.
    I think zero is more likely.
    I think your lower end is more my upper end.
    Possible.
    Sounds plausible.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    FPT: What are the implications of having a lame-duck PM for the duration of the campaign?

    First, since we don't know who'll be leading the Tories after the election, the "you don't know what you'll get under Labour" attack will be blunted.

    Second, the starting gun for the leadership contest has been fired. Sunak will very quickly become seen as yesterday's man, to the point that I wonder if we'll see him being more or less completely edged out of the campaign by those who hope to succeed him.

    Third, some of the potential leadership candidates might do better if the party loses heavily - a bad result would guarantee that Mordaunt wouldn't be a candidate, for example. Depending on how cynical some of the likely survivors are, this might become a factor later in the campaign.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    If other polls follow Survation, I suspect Con and Lab will both see their numbers jump, at the expense of their rivals on right and left.

    I think Reform will do no better than the Referendum Party.

    The Conservatives are heading for a hammering, but can probably hope to hold 20 or so seats the Lib Dem’s won in 1997/2001.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,731
    edited May 22
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
    I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.

    If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
    Oh, I think she didn't want to know. I suspect that strong hints were given to her, and she chose to remain ignorant.
    Criminal negligence then?

    (There must be one email somewhere, on which she was copied against her wishes, or an email in which she expressed her wishes clearly to be not informed about the prosecutions from Horizon?)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Sean_F said:

    If other polls follow Survation, I suspect Con and Lab will both see their numbers jump, at the expense of their rivals on right and left.

    I think Reform will do no better than the Referendum Party.

    The Conservatives are heading for a hammering, but can probably hope to hold 20 or so seats the Lib Dem’s won in 1997/2001.

    I think that's very likely. I think - on the night - the big two will get 75% or so.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,731
    edited May 22

    Sandpit said:

    Can one ever find a Jason Beer KC at the front of the famous ‘cab rank’, or is he always on private bookings at a couple of grand an hour?

    Simply not how the cab rank system works. What they can't do is refuse a case if they are available and fairly remunerated. But an in demand silk is entirely able to charge high fees - far higher than a newly qualified barrister making her way, for instance. What they cannot do is discriminate between those willing to pay those eyewatering fees.

    On the "cab rank" analogy, the cabby can refuse a passenger if said passenger can't pay the fare.
    On the contrary, a cabbie’s fares are set not by the driver but by the local authority, and he has a sealed meter which calculates it based on the journey not on the cabbie.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Sky reporter being physically removed from Sunak campaign event.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
    I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.

    If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
    Oh, I think she didn't want to know. I suspect that strong hints were given to her, and she chose to remain ignorant.
    Criminal negligence then?

    (There must be one email somewhere, on which she was copied against her wishes, or an email in which she expressed her wishes clearly to be not informed about the prosecutions from Horizon?)
    I suspect a surprisingly small amount of Ms Vennells communications will have been over email.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 22
    biggles said:

    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!

    You do have to wonder. I mean. It’s not IMPOSSIBLE. But how unlikely? Leicester winning the Premier League likely?
    I got on con maj @ 25/1, on the eve of the election 2015, which was a great bet.

    I'd go evens con maj will be available at 999/1 before 10pm July 4th 2024, which makes 32/1 (available now) a bad bet, in my book.

    caveat; I might be wrong. I often am.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
    I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.

    If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
    Oh, I think she didn't want to know. I suspect that strong hints were given to her, and she chose to remain ignorant.
    Legally, that won't help her much at all. In general, there is very little distinction made between having knowledge of a thing and deliberately avoiding being fixed with knowledge you know you won't like. That's come largely through case law based on the reality that it's ridiculously hard to prove what's going on in a person's head, but much easier to show what really ought to have been.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    wooliedyed said:
    I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old


    Interesting parallels though 1945 Churchill’s Tories had won the war but Labour were trusted to deliver the peace. 2024 Johnson’s Tories got Bwexit done but Labour will be trusted with rebuilding the bridges.

    More similar than you might think.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    Weird scenes on Sky News where their reporter is getting kicked out live from the Tory campaign launch :worried:
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,676
    Meanwhile, in "they haven't thought this through" news,

    “I can’t describe how pissed off I’d be if I was a Tory MP.”

    “Day one of the election campaign - tomorrow - is going to be about net migration figures and they are going to be bad.”

    https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1793348603945091417
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    I've just seen the Sky News chap physically chucked out of the Sunak campaign launch live on telly. WTAF is going on?
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
    CatMan said:

    Weird scenes on Sky News where their reporter is getting kicked out live from the Tory campaign launch :worried:

    really?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    CatMan said:

    Weird scenes on Sky News where their reporter is getting kicked out live from the Tory campaign launch :worried:

    Just seen that. Bonkers.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can one ever find a Jason Beer KC at the front of the famous ‘cab rank’, or is he always on private bookings at a couple of grand an hour?

    Simply not how the cab rank system works. What they can't do is refuse a case if they are available and fairly remunerated. But an in demand silk is entirely able to charge high fees - far higher than a newly qualified barrister making her way, for instance. What they cannot do is discriminate between those willing to pay those eyewatering fees.

    On the "cab rank" analogy, the cabby can refuse a passenger if said passenger can't pay the fare.
    On the contrary, a cabbie’s fares are set not by the driver but by the local authority, and he has a sealed meter which calculates it based on the journey not on the cabbie.
    Well, I agree that's where the "cab rank" analogy has always been flawed, and also because there is no reciprocity to it as there is with cabs - the customer can select any cab on the rank, not just the one at the front of it (but then it's a choice between the Rolls Royce and the Nissan Micra - and you pay accordingly).

    What I'm simply doing is describing what the principle actually means in terms of barristers.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Hunt is standing apparently at the GE
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 22
    ping said:

    biggles said:

    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!

    You do have to wonder. I mean. It’s not IMPOSSIBLE. But how unlikely? Leicester winning the Premier League likely?
    I got on con maj @ 25/1, on the eve of the election 2015, which was a great bet.

    I'd go evens con maj will be available at 999/1 before 10pm July 4th 2024, which makes 32/1 (available now) a bad bet, in my book.

    caveat; I might be wrong. I often am.
    I tipped the 25/1 on here, btw.

    I think Tissue Price, and a few of the sharper PB right-wingers cleaned up on that one.

    I just got £40 on, myself.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    Hunt is standing apparently at the GE

    There were rumours in the Autumn, but he recently made a six figure donation to his own local party, which would have been uncharacteristically generous if it was to assist his successor as Tory candidate.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @ayeshahazarika

    Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?


  • Options
    ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,524
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines

    Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
    I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.

    If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
    Oh, I think she didn't want to know. I suspect that strong hints were given to her, and she chose to remain ignorant.
    Some of the emails and documents today were damning. She knew there were issues, she just didn't want to dig deeper.

    The culture at the Post Office reminds me of working in a certain Scottish bank. Focus on the desired message, no bad news allowed to reach the top, no interest in alternate narratives or evidence of problems, protecting the organisation at all costs.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    edited May 22
    Holly Lynch, Labour MP for Halifax, shadow immigration standing down
    Edit - sorry, most recently shadow deputy chief whip
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    edited May 22
    ping said:

    CatMan said:

    Weird scenes on Sky News where their reporter is getting kicked out live from the Tory campaign launch :worried:

    really?
    Video here:

    https://x.com/thepopcornreel/status/1793359732725420160
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited May 22

    Now everyone joins me in my working assumption, the General Election is this side of recess, and not the autumn or winter.

    What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.

    I still stand by the election result I posted here two months ago, hand in hand with my 4th July election day prediction:

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    I was universally laughed at when I predicted both day and result 2 months ago. Well you’re not laughing now, are you?

    You forgot how you spammed PB for months convinced we were having a May election.

    You are Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and I claim my £5.
    If that was a doxxing event, you failed.

    Maybe May 2nd would have returned more Tory MPs than July 4th? Does it not seem odd to you to smash your councillor and mayor base, depress your party by proving you really are that far behind. And then call the election - only now realising things are going to get more tricky for you, after this little window of good economic news? This was the honest reason I looked at Spring Summer election dates, and May 2nd stood out.

    However, after Rishi ruled out May 2nd, I started posting “9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%” in support of July 4th, a June campaign against this sunny economic backdrop.

    I was wrong about that as well. Interest rate cut didn’t happen. Even todays news on borrowing and inflation was poor, suggesting interest rate cut is not imminent.

    So to be very honest with everyone, I am surprised Sunak has still gone ahead with the “we’ve turned the economy around” election, in this little window before boats crossings spike, the covid report comes out, and energy costs start lifting inflation again. As I have already posted, it’s the fact an autumn budget and a conference would have been difficult, that made this decision. It feels like a rushed last minute decision to me, the way it’s been managed so far.

    It looks at first glance I made one wrong call May 2nd. But only because my analysis and prediction was at the mercy of the whimsical madness of Rishi Sunak. He didn’t go with May 2nd, but he didn’t wait till Autumn and improved polling either 🤷‍♀️
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645

    wooliedyed said:
    I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old


    Interesting parallels though 1945 Churchill’s Tories had won the war but Labour were trusted to deliver the peace. 2024 Johnson’s Tories got Bwexit done but Labour will be trusted with rebuilding the bridges.

    More similar than you might think.

    If the Conservatives come out of this with the same seat total as 1945, they’ll be very happy.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    My predictions (Wild A**ed Guess-style):.

    *) A Labour majority of at least 100. Perhaps 150.
    *) Discontent with Labour's stance on Israel hurts Labour, but not as much as Reform hurt the Conservatives.
    *) In Scotland, Labour get more seats than the SNP.
    *) Within three months, there is a scandal involving one of the new Labour MPs.
    *) Labour to relatively underperform in Wales, but still get >25 of the reduced number of seats.
    *) Sunak resigns; the new Tory leader is from the batsh*t insane wing of the party.
    *) Starmer to get less than 60% in his own constituency due to a raft of anto-Starmer candidates, but obvs. retain his seat.
    *) Sunak to et less than 50% in his own constituency, but retain his seat.
    *) Turnout to be less than 65%. A desire to chuck out the Tories outweighed by a yawn over Starmer.

    Agree with most of those, but on your fourth prediction - I suspect that any such scandal would be more likely to be attached to an existing 2015/17/19 intake MP newly promoted to junior ministerial office.

    Starmer's team has kept a pretty tight rein over selections even in less-winnable seats, so PPCs will have been vetted much more thoroughly than the likes of Jared O'Mara ever were (much to the chagrin of Momentum et al!).

    There's more of a risk in seats where selection hasn't finished yet - but I assume that now the election's been called they'll mostly be decided by the NEC rather than individual CLPs?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Three aims for the Conservatives from this election.

    Firstly, avoid falling too far behind in seats. To stay above 170 seats. Secondly, this is the Conservative Party nadir, to see off the threat from Reform at this nadir, stealing their vote, smashing their arguments, so as the Conservatives return to popularity in coming years, it will be easier with Reform out of the way. Thirdly, in the inevitable leadership election after this defeat, a new leader MUST work to return the Party to the USP that made them own the last 100 years of British Politics, not a leader that will take them further down the road of the alt right MAGA junk imported from America. Further down that road is further away from the UK electorate.

    If I may, the second aim seems incompatible with both the first and third aims.

    Political parties win from the centre. Moving way off to the right does nothing to see off RefUK (as you can't out-crazy crazy), and only encourages whatever is left of the parliamentary party to go full tonto to try and recover lost ground.

    Question - would the return of the Nigel tomorrow be a blessing in disguise? Sunak cannot hope to compete for the crazy vote against Farage, so would you even bother to try? A harder defeat in this election but a clearer route back after ReformBrexKip once again get millions of votes and no seats...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    Bray has been banned from the streets around Whitehall lol

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6QhAZckY8w
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    Hunt is standing losing at the GE

    Fixed for you.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    Bray has been banned from the streets around Whitehall lol

    "STOP BRAY-XIT!"
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Sean_F said:

    wooliedyed said:
    I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old


    Interesting parallels though 1945 Churchill’s Tories had won the war but Labour were trusted to deliver the peace. 2024 Johnson’s Tories got Bwexit done but Labour will be trusted with rebuilding the bridges.

    More similar than you might think.

    If the Conservatives come out of this with the same seat total as 1945, they’ll be very happy.
    If they end up with the same vote total as 1945, then things aren't going to look so good.

    (Actually, that's an interesting bet: Conservative vote count to beat 1945's 8m.)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    Now everyone joins me in my working assumption, the General Election is this side of recess, and not the autumn or winter.

    What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.

    I still stand by the election result I posted here two months ago, hand in hand with my 4th July election day prediction:

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    I was universally laughed at when I predicted both day and result 2 months ago. Well you’re not laughing now, are you?

    You forgot how you spammed PB for months convinced we were having a May election.

    You are Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and I claim my £5.
    No, you don’t get £5 if she is AEB.

    You get a signed copy of 4,765 predictions of the last 2 recessions.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    On the suit in the rain thing.

    Could it be that Sunak is a massive West Wing fan?

    Somehow that seems to fit.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    Sunak's priority he says is to drive inflation back to normal. Hard to cheer.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    That was quick:

    Dear CarlottaVance

    A general election is taking place on Thursday 4 July 2024. Polling takes place between 7am and 10pm.

    You are currently registered to vote by post at:...

    Your postal voting pack will be sent to the following address around 19 June:....

    Your completed postal vote must reach us by 10pm on Thursday 4 July for it to be counted. You can post your pack to us or you can return it in person to:

    Any Brighton & Hove polling station on the day of the election
    Hove Town Hall during office hours before the election
    If you return your postal vote in person, you will need to complete a separate declaration form.

    Kind regards

    Electoral Services | Legal & Democratic Services | Brighton & Hove City Council
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,324

    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!

    Surely it must be worth a punt on a trading basis? I assume the polls will narrow and as normal punters pile in it should(?) narrow, enabling a trade-out.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    Omnium said:

    Sunak's priority he says is to drive inflation back to normal. Hard to cheer.

    Its a bit like saying the aim of our government is to avoid a recession.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    I think Sunak is on the Mexican Coke again*

    *For any libel lawyers reading, the legal type!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    ping said:

    ping said:

    biggles said:

    A Tory majority is 32 on BX.

    Thirty-two.

    It's almost value!

    You do have to wonder. I mean. It’s not IMPOSSIBLE. But how unlikely? Leicester winning the Premier League likely?
    I got on con maj @ 25/1, on the eve of the election 2015, which was a great bet.

    I'd go evens con maj will be available at 999/1 before 10pm July 4th 2024, which makes 32/1 (available now) a bad bet, in my book.

    caveat; I might be wrong. I often am.
    I tipped the 25/1 on here, btw.

    I think Tissue Price, and a few of the sharper PB right-wingers cleaned up on that one.

    I just got £40 on, myself.
    Where I absolutely cleaned up in 2015 was Scotland.

    Alastair Meeks had this theory that Yes would lose the Indyref but then the SNP would win the constituencies at GE2015.

    Won quite a few Scottish seats at 66/1, 50/1,and 33/1
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Farage to announce tomorrow if he is standing 'will think about it overnight'
This discussion has been closed.