Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
'Soggy Sunak' isn't exactly the best kick-off to his campaign. On the other hand, maybe 'come rain or shine', 'he's a trouper' will play well with the demographic they're targetting.
I imagine the 10-20 minutes before they called it would have made for a pretty decent real-time Thick of It episode.
The odd thing is that a decent suit wouldn't look like that. He's a rich man. What on earth is he wearing?
Is it possible to find out in advance which four days of the campaign will centre around the “what is a woman” question, so it can be ignored until it goes away?
Since Sunak ballsed that one up at PMQs, Tory’s have held back, fearing the same backlash they got.
Sky News' political correspondent and crew are currently being FOLLOWED BY SECURITY around the circumference of the ExCel centre, to ensure he doesn't even get anywhere near the building where our glorious leader, Kim Jong Sunak, is launching his campaign for your vote. SHAMBLES.
Hilarious stuff. Live comedy on Sky News.
Spectacular. Sky News. LIVE at the PM's campaign launch. Being thrown out by security goons.
Last time we had Boris hiding in a fridge from Piers Morgan. What fun can we expect this time? How about security forcing BBC News into a fridge live on air?
I'm not joking now. They are seriously trying to make sure, with the Disney 100 exhibition going on in one of the halls, that they cannot get the Sunak / Mickey Mouse shot.
That's where they miss Johnson. He would have gone out of his way to make sure they got the shot.
I wonder if there may be Black Swans ahead (there always are - ed.) chatting to a friend this weekend who is involved in corporate security, I asked if there was anywhere I shouldn't be planning a holiday apart from Taiwan ("absolutely not") - to my surprises, "Japan" was mentioned - which I suppose makes sense....
I've attempted to tease out intentions from my goto 'non anorak' contact, who voted for the first time at age 59 for Brexit, then Tory in 2017, and despite being a fan of Boris did not bother in 2019.
They say Keir cannot be trusted, Sunak is a snake, and Reform/Green are just timewasters who need to figure out we have a two party system.
I'm not sure they even remembered the LDs exist as they did not mention them.
But no worries, they are not planning to vote anyway.
He's not alone in this sartorial choice. Lots of men do it. And they all look berks.
It was definitely a thing in the mid-2010s, and MPs do tend to freeze their fashion sense at the moment at which they're elected. Applies also to Labour, although a lot of their current front bench is of a slightly earlier vintage.
Sunak is a fairly extreme example, though - look at Dowden, who has fairly similar style but wears his trousers at the ankle, not mid-calf.
the expression on David Cameron at Sunak's election rally - along with Hunt, Shapps, Mitchell, Cleverly, essentially all the veterans who can count - is something to behold
Everybody at the general election announcement looks utterly broken
I will never in my life understand why these kinds of photo events are considered compelling, when there is a high risk someone will look bored, or miserable, even if the group as a whole are not those things.
At least some of them could legitimately state - and I couldn't keep doing diplomatic foreign stuff instead of this because?
Now everyone joins me in my working assumption, the General Election is this side of recess, and not the autumn or winter.
What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I still stand by the election result I posted here two months ago, hand in hand with my 4th July election day prediction:
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
I was universally laughed at when I predicted both day and result 2 months ago. Well you’re not laughing now, are you?
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
Sunak has done the right thing. Get it over and done with quickly, like lancing a boil or tearing elastoplast off the skin. He might even gain a few brownie points for being decisive
One thing already quite notable in both of Sunak’s election pitches…
How much he talks about his time as chancellor handling Covid
Which was 2+ yrs ago. (And, notably, when he had much higher poll ratings)
Will voters really judge him on that record vs more recent things?
The retrospective knowledge on that one has been, whilst chancellor he handed at least £40B of tax payers money to fraudsters and gangsters. And that’s even before mentioning the VIP lane. As Chancellor also invented a whole new National Insurance to sort out Social Care once and for all, he could be asked in interviews how that’s coming along.
Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
Is it possible to find out in advance which four days of the campaign will centre around the “what is a woman” question, so it can be ignored until it goes away?
Since Sunak ballsed that one up at PMQs, Tory’s have held back, fearing the same backlash they got.
Sunil: "Hey, MoonRabbit. Have you ever been mistaken for a man?"
With Jacob Rees-Mogg making a guest appearance as "Man swearing in Latin".
I know how much fans of the show rave about this episode, and maybe I'm a philistine, but I thought that whole scene was a bit, as the youth might say, cringe.
It was stupid as hell. It had more dignity than Brando in the Godfather awfulness, but even so.
Sunak has done the right thing. Get it over and done with quickly, like lancing a boil or tearing elastoplast off the skin. He might even gain a few brownie points for being decisive
Would Sunak's statement really have been ruined by wearing a coat?
An aid with an Umbrella.
The people who have been paid to look after him have been total shit from the start.
I think you're right- see also the speechwriters who send him out with dismal bilge to read. Question is- why? I can think of two reasons, neither of them encouraging.
Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
Caption competition......
You Bastards!
I dunno. I reckon he's going to fight this as the plucky underdog who everyone has written off. Looking like that is a good start.
Which party will lose a greater proportion of its MPs - Conservative or SNP?
Hmm, tough one.
I'm going with the Tories, I think they'll be looking at circa 50%, SNP anywhere from 20-40%.
Nothing but gut feeling, subject to change day by day.
The smaller numbers involved make a larger % loss for the SNP more likely, I think, inasmuch as a shocker for them will likely be a greater % loss than for the Tories.
I wonder if there may be Black Swans ahead (there always are - ed.) chatting to a friend this weekend who is involved in corporate security, I asked if there was anywhere I shouldn't be planning a holiday apart from Taiwan ("absolutely not") - to my surprises, "Japan" was mentioned - which I suppose makes sense....
At the end of the House of Cards trilogy, Prime Minister Francis Urquart engineers his own murder so as to rescue his party's fortunes. "Great Ruins" he whispers as he dies.
Sunak read the books. Remembers "Great Ruins" but has decided to murder his party so as to engineer their demise.
Could today have possibly gone any worse for them?
Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines
Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.
If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
Oh, I think she didn't want to know. I suspect that strong hints were given to her, and she chose to remain ignorant.
I think she Believes in Fujitsu, just as she Believes in the virgin birth and the resurrection and the life everlasting. Because when you Believe like that, the more obvious the evidence to the contrary which you refuse to accept the more virtuous you are. I seriously think that's her problem that she dedicated herself to the greater good of the PO like a nun dedicating herself to her Order.
She believed herself to be virtuous. And because she was virtuous, what she actually did must have been the right thing.
I think that is exactly right. I’ve dealt with people like that. Complete with a worrying feeling of what might happen if they realised their invented universe was fake
Would Sunak's statement really have been ruined by wearing a coat?
An aid with an Umbrella.
The people who have been paid to look after him have been total shit from the start.
I think you're right- see also the speechwriters who send him out with dismal bilge to read. Question is- why? I can think of two reasons, neither of them encouraging.
Sky News' political correspondent and crew are currently being FOLLOWED BY SECURITY around the circumference of the ExCel centre, to ensure he doesn't even get anywhere near the building where our glorious leader, Kim Jong Sunak, is launching his campaign for your vote. SHAMBLES.
Hilarious stuff. Live comedy on Sky News.
Spectacular. Sky News. LIVE at the PM's campaign launch. Being thrown out by security goons.
Last time we had Boris hiding in a fridge from Piers Morgan. What fun can we expect this time? How about security forcing BBC News into a fridge live on air?
I'm not joking now. They are seriously trying to make sure, with the Disney 100 exhibition going on in one of the halls, that they cannot get the Sunak / Mickey Mouse shot.
That's where they miss Johnson. He would have gone out of his way to make sure they got the shot.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
Sunak has done the right thing. Get it over and done with quickly, like lancing a boil or tearing elastoplast off the skin. He might even gain a few brownie points for being decisive
He's done the right thing, several months too late.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
It's just selfishness and greed for a few more pay packets. Turds.
the expression on David Cameron at Sunak's election rally - along with Hunt, Shapps, Mitchell, Cleverly, essentially all the veterans who can count - is something to behold
Cameron probably thinks "I was just getting started on being foreign sec."
Biggest winner from Rishi's announcement seems to be Paula Vennells, already off all the front pages and main headlines
Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable.
I think we were watching a calculated liar. A key moment was the revelation that even a close ally recently abandoned her on the basis that she simply didn't believe Vennells didn't know - which is her entire, pretty implausible defence.
If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
Oh, I think she didn't want to know. I suspect that strong hints were given to her, and she chose to remain ignorant.
The most egregious stuff is still to come - her blocking the proposal to stop the prosecutions, the decision to fight long and dirty in the courts, the decision to try and recuse the judge, the sacking of second sight. She’ll try and blame the lawyers as much as she can, but she will have been in the room for those key decisions given the cost and PR implications.
Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
'Soggy Sunak' isn't exactly the best kick-off to his campaign. On the other hand, maybe 'come rain or shine', 'he's a trouper' will play well with the demographic they're targetting.
I imagine the 10-20 minutes before they called it would have made for a pretty decent real-time Thick of It episode.
The odd thing is that a decent suit wouldn't look like that. He's a rich man. What on earth is he wearing?
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
There will never be a flight now. Civil servants won't authorise one to take off if Labour are going to scrap the policy in 6 weeks
Would Sunak's statement really have been ruined by wearing a coat?
An aid with an Umbrella.
The people who have been paid to look after him have been total shit from the start.
I think you're right- see also the speechwriters who send him out with dismal bilge to read. Question is- why? I can think of two reasons, neither of them encouraging.
Speaking of someone with far greater luck than Sunak, at least in which very simple case found a sympathetic, inexperienced judge.
NEW: Attorney found four classified documents in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago bedroom in December 2022 — four months after the FBI search, newly unsealed court documents shows.
To be fair to the Tory MPs glum faces, at the First Steps launch most of the Labour goobers looked like they'd rather be kicked in the privates than be there
I've attempted to tease out intentions from my goto 'non anorak' contact, who voted for the first time at age 59 for Brexit, then Tory in 2017, and despite being a fan of Boris did not bother in 2019.
They say Keir cannot be trusted, Sunak is a snake, and Reform/Green are just timewasters who need to figure out we have a two party system.
I'm not sure they even remembered the LDs exist as they did not mention them.
But no worries, they are not planning to vote anyway.
My not very political contact is appalled that the Craft Club, which meets weekly in the village hall on Thursdays, will once again have to be cancelled on 4th July, as it was on 2nd May. Do PMs not think these things through before fixing dates?
(The person plans to vote Labour for the first time ever. Bet accordingly)
Is it possible to find out in advance which four days of the campaign will centre around the “what is a woman” question, so it can be ignored until it goes away?
Since Sunak ballsed that one up at PMQs, Tory’s have held back, fearing the same backlash they got.
Sunil: "Hey, MoonRabbit. Have you ever been mistaken for a man?"
MoonRabbit: "No. Have you?"
You are putting better lines in my mouth than I could write for myself 😆
Speaking of someone with far greater luck than Sunak, at least in which very simple case found a sympathetic, inexperienced judge.
NEW: Attorney found four classified documents in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago bedroom in December 2022 — four months after the FBI search, newly unsealed court documents shows.
Safe to say that the Tory’s support on this website is… limited. Why they ever threw Boris away in the hope they could secure parts of this demographic is beyond me.
They are going to spend a month learning why they should have kept him.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
'Soggy Sunak' isn't exactly the best kick-off to his campaign. On the other hand, maybe 'come rain or shine', 'he's a trouper' will play well with the demographic they're targetting.
I imagine the 10-20 minutes before they called it would have made for a pretty decent real-time Thick of It episode.
The odd thing is that a decent suit wouldn't look like that. He's a rich man. What on earth is he wearing?
Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
Caption competition......
You Bastards!
I dunno. I reckon he's going to fight this as the plucky underdog who everyone has written off. Looking like that is a good start.
Is there anyone in modern British politics less suited to the underdog role than Sunak, though?
He might get away with a "dogged determination" pose, but underdog is beyond him.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
7 months of salary? Say he loses 120 of them so... at 91k a year, ~£6.5 million reasons excluding benefits. Not to mention ministerial goodies and the social sway of being in government.
Labour have released an election campaign ad tonight. It's basically Rishi standing in the rain.
They might want to find some policies, they need to move from mockery to presenting themselves as a government in waiting if they are serious. Which they are not.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Crystallising the loses, as the bankers say.
Until now, it’s been “mid term polling” or other excuses. Now it’s “you will lose your jobs on July 4th”
Is it possible to find out in advance which four days of the campaign will centre around the “what is a woman” question, so it can be ignored until it goes away?
Since Sunak ballsed that one up at PMQs, Tory’s have held back, fearing the same backlash they got.
Sunil: "Hey, MoonRabbit. Have you ever been mistaken for a man?"
MoonRabbit: "No. Have you?"
You are putting better lines in my mouth than I could write for myself 😆
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Crystallising the loses, as the bankers say.
Until now, it’s been “mid term polling” or other excuses. Now it’s “you will lose your jobs on July 4th”
We all know we are going to die. Being told the date of your death is a very different matter
Safe to say that the Torie’s support on this website is… limited. Why they ever threw Boris away in the hope they could secure parts of this demographic is beyond me.
They are going to spend a month learning why they should have kept him.
They didn't. He was forced out for repeatedly lying to Parliament, serial criminal behaviour during lockdown and condoning rampaging corruption.
Small beer compared to Trump, but he would have been far more of a liability than an asset had he stayed.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
There will never be a flight now. Civil servants won't authorise one to take off if Labour are going to scrap the policy in 6 weeks
That’s not how Purdah works.
The agreed business of Gvt goes on and ministers are still ministers until they are not. Only new ideas would be stopped.
The Act passed. If the right conditions in it are met, a flight will take off.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Because for Conservative MPs and ministers, it means six months longer on the dole, or at least out of office. Because it means six months more of a Labour government, and as Conservatives, they believe Labour governments to be a bad thing. Yes, these things might be inevitable but that does not make them welcome, and there is always the chance something might have turned up.
I wonder if there may be Black Swans ahead (there always are - ed.) chatting to a friend this weekend who is involved in corporate security, I asked if there was anywhere I shouldn't be planning a holiday apart from Taiwan ("absolutely not") - to my surprises, "Japan" was mentioned - which I suppose makes sense....
Why is that? (Genuinely asking for a friend)
If it goes tits up in Taiwan a lot of US military is there, so if the US is involved, Japan is involved, and Japan can build nukes in two seconds flat...
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
There will never be a flight now. Civil servants won't authorise one to take off if Labour are going to scrap the policy in 6 weeks
The biggest irony is that other European countries are now adopting Rwanda type policies. It is inevitable. They will probably work, more or less, and in the end the UK will be forced to copy, perhaps under Starmer, as so many migrants will be fleeing the Rwanda-keen European mainland for non-Rwanda-y Britain
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
The great irony being that Rishi as Chancellor was one of the earliest sceptics on Rwanda.
Speaking of someone with far greater luck than Sunak, at least in which very simple case found a sympathetic, inexperienced judge.
NEW: Attorney found four classified documents in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago bedroom in December 2022 — four months after the FBI search, newly unsealed court documents shows.
The reason she's foot dragging is all too easily comprehensible. It's because she's a partisan no mark picked to get Trump off.
I believe her selection in this case was apparently random, but it is rotten bad luck, since even assuming a lack of mendacious intent, by all reports she takes ages to do even simple things and makes confusing rulings which cause significant delays to unpick.
It's the most straightforward criminal case, and the most inexplicable, since all Trump had to do was hand things back when asked and there'd be nothing but a slap on the wrist like Biden and others got. Bit for some bizarre reason he insists like a toddler that if he had it at one point, that makes it his now.
I wonder if there may be Black Swans ahead (there always are - ed.) chatting to a friend this weekend who is involved in corporate security, I asked if there was anywhere I shouldn't be planning a holiday apart from Taiwan ("absolutely not") - to my surprises, "Japan" was mentioned - which I suppose makes sense....
Why is that? (Genuinely asking for a friend)
If it goes tits up in Taiwan a lot of US military is there, so if the US is involved, Japan is involved, and Japan can build nukes in two seconds flat...
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
There will never be a flight now. Civil servants won't authorise one to take off if Labour are going to scrap the policy in 6 weeks
That’s not how Purdah works.
The agreed business of Gvt goes on and ministers are still ministers until they are not. Only new ideas would be stopped.
The Act passed. If the right conditions in it are met, a flight will take off.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Because for Conservative MPs and ministers, it means six months longer on the dole, or at least out of office. Because it means six months more of a Labour government, and as Conservatives, they believe Labour governments to be a bad thing. Yes, these things might be inevitable but that does not make them welcome, and there is always the chance something might have turned up.
It doesn't mean six extra months of Labour government. The five year clock gets reset at the GE date.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
There will never be a flight now. Civil servants won't authorise one to take off if Labour are going to scrap the policy in 6 weeks
That’s not how Purdah works.
The agreed business of Gvt goes on and ministers are still ministers until they are not. Only new ideas would be stopped.
The Act passed. If the right conditions in it are met, a flight will take off.
If.
Not going to happen
I agree, but because the conditions won’t be met, not because of your ill-informed, misunderstood version of Purdah.
Speaking of someone with far greater luck than Sunak, at least in which very simple case found a sympathetic, inexperienced judge.
NEW: Attorney found four classified documents in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago bedroom in December 2022 — four months after the FBI search, newly unsealed court documents shows.
The reason she's foot dragging is all too easily comprehensible. It's because she's a partisan no mark picked to get Trump off.
I believe her selection in this case was apparently random, but it is rotten bad luck, since even assuming a lack of mendacious intent, by all reports she takes ages to do even simple things and makes confusing rulings which cause significant delays to unpick.
It's the most straightforward criminal case, and the most inexplicable, since all Trump had to do was hand things back when asked and there'd be nothing but a slap on the wrist like Biden and others got. Bit for some bizarre reason he insists like a toddler that if he had it at one point, that makes it his now.
If she had been picked at random, she would have been removed by now. She's been upset by the appeal courts so often than in this country she'd have been asked to resign as a judge.
Somebody is obviously protecting and promoting her.
I hold very little hope Sunak will have a good campaign.
But, at some point, media scrutiny will start to shine very brightly on SKS as the prospective incoming PM rather than the incumbent government.
And it won't all go to plan.
I think his biggest risk will be appearing inflexible and robotic, sticking too intensely to an agreed line to avoid a risk. Brexit and Corbyn attacks I think he can slide past.
I wonder if there may be Black Swans ahead (there always are - ed.) chatting to a friend this weekend who is involved in corporate security, I asked if there was anywhere I shouldn't be planning a holiday apart from Taiwan ("absolutely not") - to my surprises, "Japan" was mentioned - which I suppose makes sense....
Why is that? (Genuinely asking for a friend)
If it goes tits up in Taiwan a lot of US military is there, so if the US is involved, Japan is involved, and Japan can build nukes in two seconds flat...
Most observers think that it would take Japan several hours to assemble a nuclear weapon. If nothing else, you’d want to let the core cool down after casting.
South Korea would be 10 minutes later.
There are persistent rumours that both countries have performed all the non nuclear testing required. South Korea is curiously good at flying plate explosive design.
Now everyone joins me in my working assumption, the General Election is this side of recess, and not the autumn or winter.
What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I still stand by the election result I posted here two months ago, hand in hand with my 4th July election day prediction:
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
I was universally laughed at when I predicted both day and result 2 months ago. Well you’re not laughing now, are you?
We thought you were a comedian.
Well you’re not laughing now, are you? 😀
To cheer the Labour lot up, and yellow lot too, and perhaps even the blue lot.
My fateful “July 4th and this will be the result” post, did say
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
But I also gave seat numbers what that PV + tactical voting produces.
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely 2024 locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targeting Tory candidates.
So a Tory PV recovery, at Reforms expense, Labour below 40%, Lib Dem’s more votes on day than any campaign poll will give them thanks to tv from greens and Labour suppressing those parties PV - and a Labour majority.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Because for Conservative MPs and ministers, it means six months longer on the dole, or at least out of office. Because it means six months more of a Labour government, and as Conservatives, they believe Labour governments to be a bad thing. Yes, these things might be inevitable but that does not make them welcome, and there is always the chance something might have turned up.
It doesn't mean six extra months of Labour government. The five year clock gets reset at the GE date.
The next election after this must occur by August 14th 2029 I think
Safe to say that the Tory’s support on this website is… limited. Why they ever threw Boris away in the hope they could secure parts of this demographic is beyond me.
They are going to spend a month learning why they should have kept never have picked him.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
There will never be a flight now. Civil servants won't authorise one to take off if Labour are going to scrap the policy in 6 weeks
That’s not how Purdah works.
The agreed business of Gvt goes on and ministers are still ministers until they are not. Only new ideas would be stopped.
The Act passed. If the right conditions in it are met, a flight will take off.
If.
Not going to happen
I agree, but because the conditions won’t be met, not because of your ill-informed, misunderstood version of Purdah.
As I have long stated on here, I despise this policy, but it is now law.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Because for Conservative MPs and ministers, it means six months longer on the dole, or at least out of office. Because it means six months more of a Labour government, and as Conservatives, they believe Labour governments to be a bad thing. Yes, these things might be inevitable but that does not make them welcome, and there is always the chance something might have turned up.
Point of order. It means a Labour government six months earlier. Not longer.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Because for Conservative MPs and ministers, it means six months longer on the dole, or at least out of office. Because it means six months more of a Labour government, and as Conservatives, they believe Labour governments to be a bad thing. Yes, these things might be inevitable but that does not make them welcome, and there is always the chance something might have turned up.
Taiwan is an absolutely super place for a holiday. Go.
Speaking of someone with far greater luck than Sunak, at least in which very simple case found a sympathetic, inexperienced judge.
NEW: Attorney found four classified documents in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago bedroom in December 2022 — four months after the FBI search, newly unsealed court documents shows.
The reason she's foot dragging is all too easily comprehensible. It's because she's a partisan no mark picked to get Trump off.
I believe her selection in this case was apparently random, but it is rotten bad luck, since even assuming a lack of mendacious intent, by all reports she takes ages to do even simple things and makes confusing rulings which cause significant delays to unpick.
It's the most straightforward criminal case, and the most inexplicable, since all Trump had to do was hand things back when asked and there'd be nothing but a slap on the wrist like Biden and others got. Bit for some bizarre reason he insists like a toddler that if he had it at one point, that makes it his now.
If she had been picked at random, she would have been removed by now. She's been upset by the appeal courts so often than in this country she'd have been asked to resign as a judge.
Somebody is obviously protecting and promoting her.
I mean that her selection for this case was, supposedly random. There's a nearby judge who has excoriated Trump in other, civil, cases, who would no doubt have kept things moving quickly. They can petition to have her removed apparently, but as Trump knows from spuriously trying that several times with others, it is not easy, and the conservative appeals courts in that area probably don't care to do that (even though they overturned her ridiculous rulings around the time of the initial warrants and seizures). As lawyers protect lawyers I imagine judges protect judges, unless they have no choice.
And with an actual insurrectionist supporter in Alito on the top court, and the corrupt Thomas, it only gets worse the higher up you go.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
The Belfast ruling only affected those in NI, anyone landing in Dover, not so much
Does this mean any Lab seat that has not finished selection will now have NEC/leader approved candidates parachuted in?
What will happen now in Islington North?
Paul Mason presumably.
Honestly they might as well go for him. He's an unstable wildcard, but the local party are mutinous over not getting Saint Jeremy, so might as well just piss them off fully and select someone outside entirely.
@mattgreencomedy Even when he’s dry he looks drenched (by the baleful stares of his colleagues behind him)
This will be one of the stories of the next few days. The consternation of Tory MPs at the decision to call an election, with the rain-soaked speech the cherry on the cake.
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
I don't get why they would be so pissed off on the date.
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Because for Conservative MPs and ministers, it means six months longer on the dole, or at least out of office. Because it means six months more of a Labour government, and as Conservatives, they believe Labour governments to be a bad thing. Yes, these things might be inevitable but that does not make them welcome, and there is always the chance something might have turned up.
It doesn't mean six extra months of Labour government. The five year clock gets reset at the GE date.
The next election after this must occur by August 14th 2029 I think
Does this mean any Lab seat that has not finished selection will now have NEC/leader approved candidates parachuted in?
What will happen now in Islington North?
Paul Mason presumably.
It does put us back in Jared country. Even though some say the Conservatives are further behind, not least because many current MPs will not stand but have yet to announce the fact, it is only the clown candidates who get elected that will matter in the end. (And the two or three who trip up over Gaza or some such before July.)
I hold very little hope Sunak will have a good campaign.
But, at some point, media scrutiny will start to shine very brightly on SKS as the prospective incoming PM rather than the incumbent government.
And it won't all go to plan.
Hey Casino, don't worry. Me and my squad of ultimate Starmer fans will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks, leaflets with dodgy bar charts...
Comments
Everybody at the general election announcement looks utterly broken
I've attempted to tease out intentions from my goto 'non anorak' contact, who voted for the first time at age 59 for Brexit, then Tory in 2017, and despite being a fan of Boris did not bother in 2019.
They say Keir cannot be trusted, Sunak is a snake, and Reform/Green are just timewasters who need to figure out we have a two party system.
I'm not sure they even remembered the LDs exist as they did not mention them.
But no worries, they are not planning to vote anyway.
Sunak is a fairly extreme example, though - look at Dowden, who has fairly similar style but wears his trousers at the ankle, not mid-calf.
the expression on David Cameron at Sunak's election rally - along with Hunt, Shapps, Mitchell, Cleverly, essentially all the veterans who can count - is something to behold
At least some of them could legitimately state - and I couldn't keep doing diplomatic foreign stuff instead of this because?
As Sir Humphrey advised Jim Hacker: if you must do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way.
You Bastards!
MoonRabbit: "No. Have you?"
Should that not be *vapid* bilge?
Tories not happy with that launch from Rishi Sunak...
Several including a cabinet minister saying he should have used an umbrella or gone inside...
Another cross that No 10 chose to do it on a Weds, the day the protestor is there with his loudspeakers.
Sunak read the books. Remembers "Great Ruins" but has decided to murder his party so as to engineer their demise.
Could today have possibly gone any worse for them?
It has to happen in next six months or so.
They are just putting off the inevitable.
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
Institute for Government on how far bills have gone through the process. Not looking good if only 2 days to go.
https://x.com/instituteforgov/status/1793322980363124764
NEW: Attorney found four classified documents in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago bedroom in December 2022 — four months after the FBI search, newly unsealed court documents shows.
https://nitter.poast.org/kyledcheney/status/1792987965091709115#m
This makes Judge Cannon's foot dragging on this case even more incomprehensible. Not like it involves serious matters, or anything.
https://nitter.poast.org/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1792988864144896146#m
(The person plans to vote Labour for the first time ever. Bet accordingly)
The reason she's foot dragging is all too easily comprehensible. It's because she's a partisan no mark picked to get Trump off.
They are going to spend a month learning why they should have kept him.
Betfair latest/ Tories now 41-1 for an overall majority, was 37-1 earlier .. 4/7 they lose 201 seats or more ..
He might get away with a "dogged determination" pose, but underdog is beyond him.
Until now, it’s been “mid term polling” or other excuses. Now it’s “you will lose your jobs on July 4th”
Small beer compared to Trump, but he would have been far more of a liability than an asset had he stayed.
So:
Greens 1 (am doubtful actually, but let’s be optimistic)
The Rochdale Gorgeous Party 1
Plaid 2
SNP 26
LD 27
Cons 204
Lab: 371
NI (IANAE):
DUP: 7
SF: 7
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 2
The agreed business of Gvt goes on and ministers are still ministers until they are not. Only new ideas would be stopped.
The Act passed. If the right conditions in it are met, a flight will take off.
If.
What will happen now in Islington North?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-japan-plan-biggest-upgrade-security-pact-more-than-60-years-ft-reports-2024-03-24/
Sky News
@SkyNews
·
1h
Sky's political correspondent @darrenmccaffrey is removed from Rishi Sunak's campaign launch event.
Ludicrous, but likely
But, at some point, media scrutiny will start to shine very brightly on SKS as the prospective incoming PM rather than the incumbent government.
And it won't all go to plan.
It's the most straightforward criminal case, and the most inexplicable, since all Trump had to do was hand things back when asked and there'd be nothing but a slap on the wrist like Biden and others got. Bit for some bizarre reason he insists like a toddler that if he had it at one point, that makes it his now.
UnHerd"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEoJxcQxFQk
Somebody is obviously protecting and promoting her.
Most observers think that it would take Japan several hours to assemble a nuclear weapon. If nothing else, you’d want to let the core cool down after casting.
South Korea would be 10 minutes later.
There are persistent rumours that both countries have performed all the non nuclear testing required. South Korea is curiously good at flying plate explosive design.
@TheNewsAgents
“I feel sorry for Rishi Sunak that his team allowed this to build all day.”
“Plan an election? They couldn’t even plan an 𝘶𝘮𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘢.” ☔️
The PM cut a sorry, sodden sight as he announced a July election.
To cheer the Labour lot up, and yellow lot too, and perhaps even the blue lot.
My fateful “July 4th and this will be the result” post, did say
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
But I also gave seat numbers what that PV + tactical voting produces.
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely 2024 locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targeting Tory candidates.
So a Tory PV recovery, at Reforms expense, Labour below 40%, Lib Dem’s more votes on day than any campaign poll will give them thanks to tv from greens and Labour suppressing those parties PV - and a Labour majority.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
Nothing to do with purdah
It means a Labour government six months earlier.
Not longer.
Edit. See I was beaten to that.
And with an actual insurrectionist supporter in Alito on the top court, and the corrupt Thomas, it only gets worse the higher up you go.