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Sunak’s decision looks even more courageous – politicalbetting.com
Sunak’s decision looks even more courageous – politicalbetting.com
What do the public think of the different leaders?Rishi Sunak: Satisfied 17%, Dissatisfied 72%Keir Starmer: Satisfied 32% Dissatisfied 50%And satisfaction with the government: Government Satisfied 12% Dissatisfied 81%https://t.co/uJAnqqPttO pic.twitter.com/pdds0hlpdf
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Doesn't work.
What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I still stand by the election result I posted here two months ago, hand in hand with my 4th July election day prediction:
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
I was universally laughed at when I predicted both day and result 2 months ago. Well you’re not laughing now, are you?
I feel a little out of touch - went to a funeral in a village church, where there was no mobile reception in either the church, churchyard, or pub (for the wake). I can't remember last time I was at a do where there was no mobile reception. Certainly pre-covid...
And this was not a remote area.
The polls are pretty static for most of the campaign but there are signs of a late swing to the Tories, who do better than the polls suggest, limiting Labour's majority to double figures.
Galloway gets a seat.
Labour overtakes the SNP in Scotland.
Labour does well in the North and South of England but less so in the Midlands and outer London.
Reform do badly.
The Tories choose a more centrist than expected leader after the election, but the party is left bitterly divided.
You are Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and I claim my £5.
In all fairness to you, you did get the rationale correct at some point at least, which others did not.
You should have had the courage of your convictions. But like many a bettor, you lost your nerve.
I know the feeling all too well.
Should be substantially shorter than that, surely?
It has started now by any definition with him looking like a drowned rat as his speech was overshadowed by a tune that reminds everyone of 1997. You don't have to do these things outdoors you know. It is not a good sign for how the next 44 days will go.
Obviously it won't now be possible to prove that things would have gotten worse, but I think there's a damn strong case it would have.
Now down to Reform to see if they can turn a big loss into an apocalyptic one.
I'll get my coat. In much the same way that Sunak might have been well advised to get his.
As this is a Leap Year, 4th July is the first day of the second half of the year.
I guess some wonk in CCHQ worked that out for Sunak.
Thirty-two.
It's almost value!
I'm going with the Tories, I think they'll be looking at circa 50%, SNP anywhere from 20-40%.
Nothing but gut feeling, subject to change day by day.
Firstly, avoid falling too far behind in seats. To stay above 170 seats. Secondly, this is the Conservative Party nadir, to see off the threat from Reform at this nadir, stealing their vote, smashing their arguments, so as the Conservatives return to popularity in coming years, it will be easier with Reform out of the way. Thirdly, in the inevitable leadership election after this defeat, a new leader MUST work to return the Party to the USP that made them own the last 100 years of British Politics, not a leader that will take them further down the road of the alt right MAGA junk imported from America. Further down that road is further away from the UK electorate.
Anyway, I've been on the juice so I better keep quiet for the rest of the nite.
Enjoy the excitement everyone.
*) A Labour majority of at least 100. Perhaps 150.
*) Discontent with Labour's stance on Israel hurts Labour, but not as much as Reform hurt the Conservatives.
*) In Scotland, Labour get more seats than the SNP.
*) Within three months, there is a scandal involving one of the new Labour MPs.
*) Labour to relatively underperform in Wales, but still get >25 of the reduced number of seats.
*) Sunak resigns; the new Tory leader is from the batsh*t insane wing of the party.
*) Starmer to get less than 60% in his own constituency due to a raft of anto-Starmer candidates, but obvs. retain his seat.
*) Sunak to et less than 50% in his own constituency, but retain his seat.
*) Turnout to be less than 65%. A desire to chuck out the Tories outweighed by a yawn over Starmer.
But that doesn't absolve her of the fact that she chose the easy and lazy path. And because she did that, lives were ruined.
He has provided this end-to-end service in a number of the most prominent cases of the last two decades. His caseload has included: the Stephen Lawrence Inquiry, the Hutton Inquiry, the Shipman Inquiry, the ‘Phone Hacking’ Claims, the Baha Mousa Inquiry, the Al-Sweady Inquiry, the Hillsborough Inquests, the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, Sir Cliff Richard’s claim for misuse of private information, the Grenfell Tower Inquiry, the Fishmongers Hall Inquests, the Facial Recognition judicial review, the Harry Dunn judicial review, the Shoreham Airshow Inquests, the Plymouth Shootings Inquests, and the EncroChat Claims.
He is presently instructed in:
The Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
The Covid 19 Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
The Grenfell Tower Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
The Thirlwall Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for NHS England
The Malkinson Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Greater Manchester Police
The Dawn Sturgess Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for Counter Terrorism Policing South East
The Jalal Uddin Inquiry, as Leading Counsel to the Inquiry
The Undercover Policing Inquiry, as Leading Counsel for a group of undercover police officers
If she isn't a liar, and was simply utterly useless at her job in all respects, then maybe she'd just squeeze some human sympathy from me. But I really don't think that's where the evidence points.
https://x.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1793336890063503415
Labour Majority double figures, upper end thereof
Galloway holds Rochdale and another WPB candidate wins a seat
Labour high 30s, Tory high 20s
Tory gain 3 seats, 2 in Scotland, 1 in England
Reform win one seat
Greens win 3 seats
LDs under 40 seats but over 25
3 indies win seats
Turnout 62%
On the "cab rank" analogy, the cabby can refuse a passenger if said passenger can't pay the fare.
No.
Too low for a combined figure.
Won't happen in England, just about possible in Scotland.
Just about possible.
I think zero is more likely.
I think your lower end is more my upper end.
Possible.
Sounds plausible.
First, since we don't know who'll be leading the Tories after the election, the "you don't know what you'll get under Labour" attack will be blunted.
Second, the starting gun for the leadership contest has been fired. Sunak will very quickly become seen as yesterday's man, to the point that I wonder if we'll see him being more or less completely edged out of the campaign by those who hope to succeed him.
Third, some of the potential leadership candidates might do better if the party loses heavily - a bad result would guarantee that Mordaunt wouldn't be a candidate, for example. Depending on how cynical some of the likely survivors are, this might become a factor later in the campaign.
I think Reform will do no better than the Referendum Party.
The Conservatives are heading for a hammering, but can probably hope to hold 20 or so seats the Lib Dem’s won in 1997/2001.
(There must be one email somewhere, on which she was copied against her wishes, or an email in which she expressed her wishes clearly to be not informed about the prosecutions from Horizon?)
I'd go evens con maj will be available at 999/1 before 10pm July 4th 2024, which makes 32/1 (available now) a bad bet, in my book.
caveat; I might be wrong. I often am.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
Interesting parallels though 1945 Churchill’s Tories had won the war but Labour were trusted to deliver the peace. 2024 Johnson’s Tories got Bwexit done but Labour will be trusted with rebuilding the bridges.
More similar than you might think.
“I can’t describe how pissed off I’d be if I was a Tory MP.”
“Day one of the election campaign - tomorrow - is going to be about net migration figures and they are going to be bad.”
https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1793348603945091417
What I'm simply doing is describing what the principle actually means in terms of barristers.
I think Tissue Price, and a few of the sharper PB right-wingers cleaned up on that one.
I just got £40 on, myself.
“I've seen things you people wouldn't believe... Gullis eating soup with a fork. I watched Braverman try to deport a sofa. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain... Time to die.”
Honestly… the optics… for someone who really cares about his image & who loves instagram, this is such a bad look. What were his advisers thinking? Why didn’t they move it inside?
The culture at the Post Office reminds me of working in a certain Scottish bank. Focus on the desired message, no bad news allowed to reach the top, no interest in alternate narratives or evidence of problems, protecting the organisation at all costs.
Edit - sorry, most recently shadow deputy chief whip
https://x.com/thepopcornreel/status/1793359732725420160
Maybe May 2nd would have returned more Tory MPs than July 4th? Does it not seem odd to you to smash your councillor and mayor base, depress your party by proving you really are that far behind. And then call the election - only now realising things are going to get more tricky for you, after this little window of good economic news? This was the honest reason I looked at Spring Summer election dates, and May 2nd stood out.
However, after Rishi ruled out May 2nd, I started posting “9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2%” in support of July 4th, a June campaign against this sunny economic backdrop.
I was wrong about that as well. Interest rate cut didn’t happen. Even todays news on borrowing and inflation was poor, suggesting interest rate cut is not imminent.
So to be very honest with everyone, I am surprised Sunak has still gone ahead with the “we’ve turned the economy around” election, in this little window before boats crossings spike, the covid report comes out, and energy costs start lifting inflation again. As I have already posted, it’s the fact an autumn budget and a conference would have been difficult, that made this decision. It feels like a rushed last minute decision to me, the way it’s been managed so far.
It looks at first glance I made one wrong call May 2nd. But only because my analysis and prediction was at the mercy of the whimsical madness of Rishi Sunak. He didn’t go with May 2nd, but he didn’t wait till Autumn and improved polling either 🤷♀️
Starmer's team has kept a pretty tight rein over selections even in less-winnable seats, so PPCs will have been vetted much more thoroughly than the likes of Jared O'Mara ever were (much to the chagrin of Momentum et al!).
There's more of a risk in seats where selection hasn't finished yet - but I assume that now the election's been called they'll mostly be decided by the NEC rather than individual CLPs?
Political parties win from the centre. Moving way off to the right does nothing to see off RefUK (as you can't out-crazy crazy), and only encourages whatever is left of the parliamentary party to go full tonto to try and recover lost ground.
Question - would the return of the Nigel tomorrow be a blessing in disguise? Sunak cannot hope to compete for the crazy vote against Farage, so would you even bother to try? A harder defeat in this election but a clearer route back after ReformBrexKip once again get millions of votes and no seats...
(Actually, that's an interesting bet: Conservative vote count to beat 1945's 8m.)
You get a signed copy of 4,765 predictions of the last 2 recessions.
Could it be that Sunak is a massive West Wing fan?
Somehow that seems to fit.
Dear CarlottaVance
A general election is taking place on Thursday 4 July 2024. Polling takes place between 7am and 10pm.
You are currently registered to vote by post at:...
Your postal voting pack will be sent to the following address around 19 June:....
Your completed postal vote must reach us by 10pm on Thursday 4 July for it to be counted. You can post your pack to us or you can return it in person to:
Any Brighton & Hove polling station on the day of the election
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*For any libel lawyers reading, the legal type!
Alastair Meeks had this theory that Yes would lose the Indyref but then the SNP would win the constituencies at GE2015.
Won quite a few Scottish seats at 66/1, 50/1,and 33/1