Will a 4th of July election be Sunak’s siege of Yorktown? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Can't Rishi even read a bloody weather forecast?Flatlander said:
Perhaps someone handed him a rainbow umbrella and he decided to ditch it?williamglenn said:
It could have been fairly iconic if he’d come out holding his own umbrella but to do it like that made no sense at all.Heathener said:Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?
Wtf?1 -
Phew. Because there is some bird flu around which they worry is going to jump species.TheScreamingEagles said:I still have man-flu.
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Stopped clocks....Anabobazina said:So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!
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Guto Harri very positive for the Conservatives.MarqueeMark said:
July 4th: both Labour and the Conservatives poll in the 30's.Scott_xP said:@Survation
NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.
21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.
LAB 48 (+4)
CON 27 (+3)
LD 8 (-2)
GRN 2 (-5)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (+1)
OTH 4 (-1)
F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.
Then the fun begins....0 -
It reminds me of when, er, Mandelson and Brown perhaps were performing some campaign stunt only for a car to crash in front of them, prompting the obvuous question.Scott_xP said:@lewis_goodall
I cannot think of a less auspicious start to a general election campaign for any prime minister.
But at least that couldn't have been mitigated against by glancing out of the window.1 -
Anyone who went to Norway or Finland this month really has hit the jackpot.Pulpstar said:0 -
Like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who has called 24 out of the last one recessions....Anabobazina said:So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!
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Wasn't it John Major who said, "when your back's against the wall it's time to turn around and fight?"biggles said:
I wonder if he wants to try and run a John Major campaign, taking on the hecklers, and he wanted to signal that.Lennon said:
Didn't they spend a load of money on an expensive indoor Number 10 press room? Would have been perfect surely...SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I'd have thought the PM could even have secured a late-notice room booking somewhere in the Westminster/Whitehall area.Heathener said:Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?
Wtf?
The issue being that he is not 1992 vintage John Major.
Sunak seems to be carrying on very much in that vein.2 -
We had an NQ teacher, Mr Boggis, like the characters from Discworld and Fantastic Mr Fox, who lasted less than a term. We were such utter shits to him that I occasionally google his name to see if I can find what he's up to and offer an apology. But googling Mr Boggis just gets you Discworld and Fantastic Mr Fox.Leon said:
Very good analogy! Indeed perfectChameleon said:
Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.Leon said:
It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awfulChameleon said:Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.
His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run
We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh
Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on0 -
She deserves a Dutch Salute!Anabobazina said:So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!
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I love the way he suddenly stops speaking and just walks off.1
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So when's the reshuffle?0
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Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.
And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:
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And the Daily Mail:
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Better than those racing tips, for sure.Anabobazina said:So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!
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Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.2
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Guido reporting prorogation Friday, dissolution Thursday next week? So no PMQs next week?0
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I just checked. Apparently it could be derived from Old French for "white hair"Cookie said:
Polyblank? Really?Leon said:
Very good analogy! Indeed perfectChameleon said:
Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.Leon said:
It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awfulChameleon said:Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.
His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run
We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh
Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name.
Is it Cornish, I wonder?
We also had a Mr Snoswell who taught Physics
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5th JulySandyRentool said:So when's the reshuffle?
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Predictions: #2 Sir Ed Davey to be followed for the next 6 weeks by someone with a Post Office sign....1
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The cuts to BBC2 Newsnight take full effect on Tuesday - programme reduced to 30 mins.
Will they have to do a temporary U turn?2 -
Ah. Blurry. Like Sunak. Tears in the Rain and all that.
Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13448143/rishi-sunak-calls-general-election-july-4.html
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Moonrabbit (and most of us, to be fair) have some way to go until we're right as often as a stopped clock!GIN1138 said:
Stopped clocks....Anabobazina said:So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!
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You'd have thought he'd have a link to the radar as well as his spreadsheets.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Can't Rishi even read a bloody weather forecast?Flatlander said:
Perhaps someone handed him a rainbow umbrella and he decided to ditch it?williamglenn said:
It could have been fairly iconic if he’d come out holding his own umbrella but to do it like that made no sense at all.Heathener said:Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?
Wtf?
[Edit: Gah, blurryvision strikes. 17:15, centered on SW1A 2AA]2 -
Speak for yourself!Selebian said:
Moonrabbit (and most of us, to be fair) have some way to go until we're right as often as a stopped clock!GIN1138 said:
Stopped clocks....Anabobazina said:So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!
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Possible. Depends on the seat and the lead. Remember that BOTH their ships are sinking fast, so its hard to advocate voting against the Tories malfeasance, corruption and incompetence and instead for the SNP and their malfeasance, corruption and incompetenceAndy_JS said:The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
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Well wouldn't that set the cat among the pigeons...MarqueeMark said:Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.
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And for those who like a bit of focus:Heathener said:Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.
And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:
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Watch Leicester East if Webbe stands as an indy. Its the only seat in England I think that may wander but very long shot. Although Kensington would be a nominal gain on new boundaries and is worth a look nearer the timeAndy_JS said:The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
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I don’t know that reminding everyone about the pandemic is remotely sensible for the tories.mwadams said:
My favourite part was the opening. In which the underlying assumption was that we all knew what he was talking about, having memorized the course of his star spangled career. Which we didn't. Then it turned out it was the Furlough Scheme.IanB2 said:Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.
1939-45 was something people wanted to forget. Project Fear isn’t going to help the Conservatives this time either.0 -
Starmer standing with a lectern in the rain wearing a suit?biggles said:Or is this evening the evening that the Sun publishes a picture of Starmer ##### with a ##### in the #####, wearing a ##### and it was all planned ahead?
Yeah, that would look pretty tragic, could be election losing 0 -
How did you do that?! I need to sharpen up.Benpointer said:
And for those who like a bit of focus:Heathener said:Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.
And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:0 -
So will the Sun be supporting Labour?0
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Was he a true technocrat? If he was he didn't want the label. Seemed more like an excel-nerd trying to be a popular and failing.TOPPING said:Turns out we didn't want a boring technocrat after Boris after all.
The worst thing about this is that it has forever curtailed the prospect of billionaire public schoolboys becoming PM for a generation at least.1 -
Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".
https://www.youtube.com/live/ta2nEmoUQTE
If you want to watch/hear it.2 -
My missus just said ‘does this mean you’re going to be an election wanker for the next six weeks?’ She was only half joking.6
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I forgot about Leicester East. There's also Brent North and Harrow West, though very unlikely.wooliedyed said:
Watch Leicester East if Webbe stands as an indy. Its the only seat in England I think that may wander but very long shot. Although Kensington would be a nominal gain on new boundaries and is worth a look nearer the timeAndy_JS said:The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
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He must reckon on England getting through the group stages but being knocked out on penalties soon after.0
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I'm going to go out on a limb here though and predict starmer as PM after the election...Selebian said:
Moonrabbit (and most of us, to be fair) have some way to go until we're right as often as a stopped clock!GIN1138 said:
Stopped clocks....Anabobazina said:So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!
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No, I really don't understand that.Heathener said:
I don’t know that reminding everyone about the pandemic is remotely sensible for the tories.mwadams said:
My favourite part was the opening. In which the underlying assumption was that we all knew what he was talking about, having memorized the course of his star spangled career. Which we didn't. Then it turned out it was the Furlough Scheme.IanB2 said:Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.
1939-45 was something people wanted to forget. Project Fear isn’t going to help the Conservatives this time either.1 -
Thats a pretty safe bet seeing as "some" are predicting under 10 Tory seats......do you think he will get more than 200?numbertwelve said:He will lose.
I suspect he won’t lose quite as badly as some will predict. But lose he will.0 -
We didn't have any amusingly named teachers that I remember. But some had an amusing appearance. Particularly together. The physics department had a man who was absurdly tall, thin, and ginger, a man who looked like a garden gnome, and a man who was the spit of Bruce Grobelaar. Seeing the three of them together never failed to be arresting.Leon said:
I just checked. Apparently it could be derived from Old French for "white hair"Cookie said:
Polyblank? Really?Leon said:
Very good analogy! Indeed perfectChameleon said:
Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.Leon said:
It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awfulChameleon said:Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.
His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run
We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh
Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name.
Is it Cornish, I wonder?
We also had a Mr Snoswell who taught Physics1 -
Prediction #3: at some point we will see the headline "Starmer "Just a wishy-washy Rishi".....0
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Schools in Scotland close the week before - not that Sunak cares about his chances here.
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Evidence from places like Australia and New Zealand suggest not good approach, and it arguable that those places did COVID better (at least initially).Heathener said:
I don’t know that reminding everyone about the pandemic is remotely sensible for the tories.mwadams said:
My favourite part was the opening. In which the underlying assumption was that we all knew what he was talking about, having memorized the course of his star spangled career. Which we didn't. Then it turned out it was the Furlough Scheme.IanB2 said:Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.
1939-45 was something people wanted to forget. Project Fear isn’t going to help the Conservatives this time either.0 -
BNP leader speaking now0
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I suspect your Labour figure could be close. Cons could be 5 points in either direction. Five points North and Rishi probably has a decent majority.MarqueeMark said:Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.
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Depending where the wheels stop, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (three way battle incoming) and Argyll and Bute will be where they focus outside held seats and the NERochdalePioneers said:
Possible. Depends on the seat and the lead. Remember that BOTH their ships are sinking fast, so its hard to advocate voting against the Tories malfeasance, corruption and incompetence and instead for the SNP and their malfeasance, corruption and incompetenceAndy_JS said:The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
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Starmer looking like Mark Darcy0
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Starmer up. He's inside and has flags next to him. 8/10.0
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5
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SKS in the dry...0
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Starmer about to speak.0
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The rain and the music didn't help but his speech was ok imo.0
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In Clarkson's Farm they go to see Rishi. Kaleb says something, a quip, about Rishi's hair. Rishi's response, although a throwaway line showed how razor sharp he actually is irl. What does this prove? Absolutely diddly squat (to use the vernacular).0
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Late afternoon all
It's all been grand theatre and a lot of fun today. I wonder when the actual decision was taken and on what basis. As might be expected, there's a run back to the big two parties at the first hint of electoral gunfire but that means nothing until the campaign proper starts.
Kudos to @MoonRabbit and all those who got July right having got May wrong and especially well done to those who backed July.
Fortunately we have plenty of other entertainment in June (football, Royal Ascot, start of Winbledon) to keep us away from the election. Those who are out pounding the street will be delighted - it's much easier in June and July than November and December.3 -
If Farage was planning to take over as leader of RefUK, it might be too late.1
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Starmer sensibly choses to do his speech inside1
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Rain, Sun, all of the elements conspiring against the Tories.BatteryCorrectHorse said:So will the Sun be supporting Labour?
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We had a Mrs. Jolly.Leon said:
I just checked. Apparently it could be derived from Old French for "white hair"Cookie said:
Polyblank? Really?Leon said:
Very good analogy! Indeed perfectChameleon said:
Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.Leon said:
It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awfulChameleon said:Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.
His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run
We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh
Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name.
Is it Cornish, I wonder?
We also had a Mr Snoswell who taught Physics
Who wasn't very.1 -
What a wally Sunak is today. Things can only get better.1
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Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.0
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I was much too far out in all the pollsMonksfield said:Just saw on Twitter:
Drowning Street
And not waving but drowning
-- Rishi E.J. Smith, Con 17½%0 -
He's terrible as well, to be honest. He could do with some music in the background.CatMan said:Starmer sensibly choses to do his speech inside
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If you even out the complexion of Brian Cox with the complexion of Brian Cox, you get an average Brian Cox.twistedfirestopper3 said:Brian Cox must be happy.
I'm sure you're all glad I told you that. 1 -
He presumably said to his team “lads please can you arrange for the announcement to be as close a visual metaphor for my tenure as possible?”Chameleon said:Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen. Humiliating.
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Which was the crazier decision. The snap election or announcing it in the rain with the pillock with the PA?1
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It was the crap populist lurches that did him in.MightyAlex said:
Was he technocratic? Seemed more like an excel-nerd trying to be a populist and failing.TOPPING said:Turns out we didn't want a boring technocrat after Boris after all.
The worst thing about this is that it has forever curtailed the prospect of billionaire public schoolboys becoming PM for a generation at least.
If he'd stuck to technocracy - the Windsor Framework, fiddling with the wonkier bits of the tax system, that sort of thing - he'd have been fine.
It was the trying-to-please-GBNews stuff that made him look so much like a weird idiot.0 -
Starmer dull as ditchwater already. Optics better than Rishi but the background still gives off a vaguely 70s vibe0
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Look, if you are Rishi's height, you can't risk standing in the rain and shrinking some....Heathener said:0 -
Starmer may be happier about that than winning by a handful of seats - a narrow loss and he’s got a good excuse to HW and go back to the country for a proper majority. A few over and it’ll be harder to go back and he’ll be beholden to his loons.MarqueeMark said:Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.
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For July or July 4? The demise of KC3 would push it to July 18th as the only black Swan that's possible I thinkDecrepiterJohnL said:Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.
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Independence Day.0
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Tis easyHeathener said:
How did you do that?! I need to sharpen up.Benpointer said:
And for those who like a bit of focus:Heathener said:Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.
And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:
Here's a picture quiz. A pint of election porter for anyone who can guess the name of this building, where I was recently. Nada googlissimo
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Yes (unless the polls narrow markedly) - they like to reflect their readers' views, so it will be a "Yes"*BatteryCorrectHorse said:So will the Sun be supporting Labour?
*But......or "and"0 -
A very important factor to bear in mind.stodge said:Late afternoon all
It's all been grand theatre and a lot of fun today. I wonder when the actual decision was taken and on what basis. As might be expected, there's a run back to the big two parties at the first hint of electoral gunfire but that means nothing until the campaign proper starts.
Kudos to @MoonRabbit and all those who got July right having got May wrong and especially well done to those who backed July.
Fortunately we have plenty of other entertainment in June (football, Royal Ascot, start of Winbledon) to keep us away from the election. Those who are out pounding the street will be delighted - it's much easier in June and July than November and December.
How many seats has Sunak handed the Lib Dems by his decision not to have a winter election, when nobody wants to go out?0 -
Good luck Rochdale!RochdalePioneers said:As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
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Heathener, these a re unreadable. Please at least quote the headline if you are going to post through Vanilla.Heathener said:And the Daily Mail:
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The timing is odd. Unless Rishi knows something, what he has done is give his own side six fewer monthly pay cheques, and brought forward a Labour government, which by definition his side thinks is a bad thing.MartinVegas said:Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".
https://www.youtube.com/live/ta2nEmoUQTE
If you want to watch/hear it.1 -
Sky News just closed out Keir Starmer’s speech with, ‘The Prime Mi …’ and then stopped.
Ooops.
No presumption. The beauty of this democracy is that the people will decide.1 -
As luck would have it I'm hosting our local Lib Dem candidate hustings at my house this evening. Not a moment too soon - they'll need to confirm the PPC quickly. Not that it matters in a seat that already has a 33k Labour majority.ClippP said:
A very important factor to bear in mind.stodge said:Late afternoon all
It's all been grand theatre and a lot of fun today. I wonder when the actual decision was taken and on what basis. As might be expected, there's a run back to the big two parties at the first hint of electoral gunfire but that means nothing until the campaign proper starts.
Kudos to @MoonRabbit and all those who got July right having got May wrong and especially well done to those who backed July.
Fortunately we have plenty of other entertainment in June (football, Royal Ascot, start of Winbledon) to keep us away from the election. Those who are out pounding the street will be delighted - it's much easier in June and July than November and December.
How many seats has Sunak handed the Lib Dems by his decision not to have a winter election, when nobody wants to go out?0 -
Why are all images blurry these days?Benpointer said:
Heathener, these a re unreadable. Please at least quote the headline if you are going to post through Vanilla.Heathener said:And the Daily Mail:
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Mr. Leon, the octagonal tower makes me think of Constantinople (so Istanbul).
Edited: but it's the bit of Italy you said reminded you of Aragon and the Byzantine Empire, the name of which I forget.0 -
Not even close.FrancisUrquhart said:Which was the crazier decision. The snap election or announcing it in the rain with the pillock with the PA?
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Rumour is that the threshold of No Confidence was close. BBC or Sky News mentioned this earlier.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The timing is odd. Unless Rishi knows something, what he has done is give his own side six fewer monthly pay cheques, and brought forward a Labour government, which by definition his side thinks is a bad thing.MartinVegas said:Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".
https://www.youtube.com/live/ta2nEmoUQTE
If you want to watch/hear it.0 -
No, but an interesting guess. The building DOES contain Islamic elements (infamously)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Leon, the octagonal tower makes me think of Constantinople (so Istanbul).
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Gives me a chance to plug this postpunk classic
Husker Du: Standing in the Rain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ad7gfb3hPpY1 -
Or control the aural environment.AlsoLei said:"Voters
All the "you don't know what you'll get with Labour" stuff was rather let down by his own failure to look at a short-term weather forecast...RochdalePioneers said:Why oh why oh why did they announce it now. Here. Outside?
Bray is an irritating pillock, but that's not the point. If you can't deal with something as entirely predictable as that, then you're just politically incompetent.0 -
The pillock with the PA probaly brought half a million back from Reform to the Tories.FrancisUrquhart said:Which was the crazier decision. The snap election or announcing it in the rain with the pillock with the PA?
This is Labour. 5 years of putting your blood pressure up 25 points.....0 -
For July. £6,255 available at 1.01 which is actually rising, which is probably due to profit-taking (or someone very clever knows of an incoming comet).wooliedyed said:
For July or July 4? The demise of KC3 would push it to July 18th as the only black Swan that's possible I thinkDecrepiterJohnL said:Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.
Market link
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223758498
Also 1.01 for July to September at
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.218024805
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Fuck me it is STILL raining. Literally non stop for 48 hours1
