Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Will a 4th of July election be Sunak’s siege of Yorktown? – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,506

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    It could have been fairly iconic if he’d come out holding his own umbrella but to do it like that made no sense at all.
    Perhaps someone handed him a rainbow umbrella and he decided to ditch it?
    Can't Rishi even read a bloody weather forecast?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,710

    I still have man-flu.

    Phew. Because there is some bird flu around which they worry is going to jump species.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,123

    So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!

    Stopped clocks....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,047

    Scott_xP said:

    @Survation
    NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.

    21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

    LAB 48 (+4)
    CON 27 (+3)
    LD 8 (-2)
    GRN 2 (-5)
    RFM 8 (-)
    SNP 3 (+1)
    OTH 4 (-1)

    F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.

    July 4th: both Labour and the Conservatives poll in the 30's.

    Then the fun begins....
    Guto Harri very positive for the Conservatives.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,517
    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall
    I cannot think of a less auspicious start to a general election campaign for any prime minister.

    It reminds me of when, er, Mandelson and Brown perhaps were performing some campaign stunt only for a car to crash in front of them, prompting the obvuous question.
    But at least that couldn't have been mitigated against by glancing out of the window.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    Pulpstar said:

    ClippP said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    Never Mind. I'm sure the weather is nicer in California.
    The sun is shining here in sunny Sunderland !
    Anyone who went to Norway or Finland this month really has hit the jackpot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,205

    So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!

    Like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who has called 24 out of the last one recessions....
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,846
    biggles said:

    Lennon said:

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    I'd have thought the PM could even have secured a late-notice room booking somewhere in the Westminster/Whitehall area.
    Didn't they spend a load of money on an expensive indoor Number 10 press room? Would have been perfect surely...
    I wonder if he wants to try and run a John Major campaign, taking on the hecklers, and he wanted to signal that.

    The issue being that he is not 1992 vintage John Major.
    Wasn't it John Major who said, "when your back's against the wall it's time to turn around and fight?"

    Sunak seems to be carrying on very much in that vein.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
    Very good analogy! Indeed perfect

    Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run

    We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh

    Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
    We had an NQ teacher, Mr Boggis, like the characters from Discworld and Fantastic Mr Fox, who lasted less than a term. We were such utter shits to him that I occasionally google his name to see if I can find what he's up to and offer an apology. But googling Mr Boggis just gets you Discworld and Fantastic Mr Fox.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,392

    So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!

    She deserves a Dutch Salute!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,706
    edited May 22
    I love the way he suddenly stops speaking and just walks off.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,941
    So when's the reshuffle?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.

    And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:


  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    And the Daily Mail:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    edited May 22

    So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!

    Better than those racing tips, for sure. ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212
    Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Guido reporting prorogation Friday, dissolution Thursday next week? So no PMQs next week?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
    Very good analogy! Indeed perfect

    Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run

    We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh

    Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
    Polyblank? Really?
    I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name.
    Is it Cornish, I wonder?
    I just checked. Apparently it could be derived from Old French for "white hair"

    We also had a Mr Snoswell who taught Physics

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,630

    So when's the reshuffle?

    5th July
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212
    edited May 22
    Predictions: #2 Sir Ed Davey to be followed for the next 6 weeks by someone with a Post Office sign....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,604
    The cuts to BBC2 Newsnight take full effect on Tuesday - programme reduced to 30 mins.

    Will they have to do a temporary U turn?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,588
    GIN1138 said:

    So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!

    Stopped clocks....
    Moonrabbit (and most of us, to be fair) have some way to go until we're right as often as a stopped clock!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,567
    Chris said:

    I love the way he suddenly stops speaking and just walks off.

    Will we ever see him again?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,560
    edited May 22

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    It could have been fairly iconic if he’d come out holding his own umbrella but to do it like that made no sense at all.
    Perhaps someone handed him a rainbow umbrella and he decided to ditch it?
    Can't Rishi even read a bloody weather forecast?
    You'd have thought he'd have a link to the radar as well as his spreadsheets.



    [Edit: Gah, blurryvision strikes. 17:15, centered on SW1A 2AA]
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,205
    Selebian said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!

    Stopped clocks....
    Moonrabbit (and most of us, to be fair) have some way to go until we're right as often as a stopped clock!
    Speak for yourself!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,771
    Andy_JS said:

    The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.

    Possible. Depends on the seat and the lead. Remember that BOTH their ships are sinking fast, so its hard to advocate voting against the Tories malfeasance, corruption and incompetence and instead for the SNP and their malfeasance, corruption and incompetence
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,123

    Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.

    Well wouldn't that set the cat among the pigeons...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,547
    Heathener said:

    Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.

    And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:


    And for those who like a bit of focus:

    image
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    mwadams said:

    IanB2 said:

    Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.

    My favourite part was the opening. In which the underlying assumption was that we all knew what he was talking about, having memorized the course of his star spangled career. Which we didn't. Then it turned out it was the Furlough Scheme.
    I don’t know that reminding everyone about the pandemic is remotely sensible for the tories.

    1939-45 was something people wanted to forget. Project Fear isn’t going to help the Conservatives this time either.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Andy_JS said:

    The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.

    Watch Leicester East if Webbe stands as an indy. Its the only seat in England I think that may wander but very long shot. Although Kensington would be a nominal gain on new boundaries and is worth a look nearer the time
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,941
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ClippP said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    Never Mind. I'm sure the weather is nicer in California.
    The sun is shining here in sunny Sunderland !
    Anyone who went to Norway or Finland this month really has hit the jackpot.
    Get the trip in before Russia invades?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,588
    biggles said:

    Or is this evening the evening that the Sun publishes a picture of Starmer ##### with a ##### in the #####, wearing a ##### and it was all planned ahead?

    Starmer standing with a lectern in the rain wearing a suit?

    Yeah, that would look pretty tragic, could be election losing :wink:
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.

    And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:


    And for those who like a bit of focus:

    image
    How did you do that?! I need to sharpen up.
  • So will the Sun be supporting Labour?
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,640
    edited May 22
    TOPPING said:

    Turns out we didn't want a boring technocrat after Boris after all.

    The worst thing about this is that it has forever curtailed the prospect of billionaire public schoolboys becoming PM for a generation at least.

    Was he a true technocrat? If he was he didn't want the label. Seemed more like an excel-nerd trying to be a popular and failing.
  • MartinVegasMartinVegas Posts: 51
    Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".

    https://www.youtube.com/live/ta2nEmoUQTE

    If you want to watch/hear it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,023

    Andy_JS said:

    The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.

    Watch Leicester East if Webbe stands as an indy. Its the only seat in England I think that may wander but very long shot. Although Kensington would be a nominal gain on new boundaries and is worth a look nearer the time
    I forgot about Leicester East. There's also Brent North and Harrow West, though very unlikely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    edited May 22
    He must reckon on England getting through the group stages but being knocked out on penalties soon after.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,588
    Selebian said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So was @MoonRabbit proved right on one of her many predictions? Bravo!

    Stopped clocks....
    Moonrabbit (and most of us, to be fair) have some way to go until we're right as often as a stopped clock!
    I'm going to go out on a limb here though and predict starmer as PM after the election...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,567
    Heathener said:

    mwadams said:

    IanB2 said:

    Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.

    My favourite part was the opening. In which the underlying assumption was that we all knew what he was talking about, having memorized the course of his star spangled career. Which we didn't. Then it turned out it was the Furlough Scheme.
    I don’t know that reminding everyone about the pandemic is remotely sensible for the tories.

    1939-45 was something people wanted to forget. Project Fear isn’t going to help the Conservatives this time either.
    No, I really don't understand that.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,514

    He will lose.

    I suspect he won’t lose quite as badly as some will predict. But lose he will.

    Thats a pretty safe bet seeing as "some" are predicting under 10 Tory seats......do you think he will get more than 200?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,517
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
    Very good analogy! Indeed perfect

    Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run

    We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh

    Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
    Polyblank? Really?
    I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name.
    Is it Cornish, I wonder?
    I just checked. Apparently it could be derived from Old French for "white hair"

    We also had a Mr Snoswell who taught Physics

    We didn't have any amusingly named teachers that I remember. But some had an amusing appearance. Particularly together. The physics department had a man who was absurdly tall, thin, and ginger, a man who looked like a garden gnome, and a man who was the spit of Bruce Grobelaar. Seeing the three of them together never failed to be arresting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212
    Prediction #3: at some point we will see the headline "Starmer "Just a wishy-washy Rishi".....
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    mwadams said:

    Chris said:

    I love the way he suddenly stops speaking and just walks off.

    Will we ever see him again?
    He doesn’t like those pesky journos asking him impertinent questions. Something to watch over these next six weeks.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,976
    Schools in Scotland close the week before - not that Sunak cares about his chances here.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,630
    TimS said:

    Things can only get wetter

    And they did.

    Top hairspray mind
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,353
    edited May 22
    Heathener said:

    mwadams said:

    IanB2 said:

    Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.

    My favourite part was the opening. In which the underlying assumption was that we all knew what he was talking about, having memorized the course of his star spangled career. Which we didn't. Then it turned out it was the Furlough Scheme.
    I don’t know that reminding everyone about the pandemic is remotely sensible for the tories.

    1939-45 was something people wanted to forget. Project Fear isn’t going to help the Conservatives this time either.
    Evidence from places like Australia and New Zealand suggest not good approach, and it arguable that those places did COVID better (at least initially).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,630
    BNP leader speaking now
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,047

    Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.

    I suspect your Labour figure could be close. Cons could be 5 points in either direction. Five points North and Rishi probably has a decent majority.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Andy_JS said:

    The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.

    Possible. Depends on the seat and the lead. Remember that BOTH their ships are sinking fast, so its hard to advocate voting against the Tories malfeasance, corruption and incompetence and instead for the SNP and their malfeasance, corruption and incompetence
    Depending where the wheels stop, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (three way battle incoming) and Argyll and Bute will be where they focus outside held seats and the NE
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,780
    Starmer looking like Mark Darcy
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Starmer up. He's inside and has flags next to him. 8/10.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,517
    Chris said:

    I love the way he suddenly stops speaking and just walks off.

    Presentattional norms which you don't even notice until someone unaccountably fails to conform to them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,123
    SKS in the dry...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212
    mwadams said:

    Chris said:

    I love the way he suddenly stops speaking and just walks off.

    Will we ever see him again?
    Is he water-soluble???
  • Starmer about to speak.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,917
    The rain and the music didn't help but his speech was ok imo.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,710
    In Clarkson's Farm they go to see Rishi. Kaleb says something, a quip, about Rishi's hair. Rishi's response, although a throwaway line showed how razor sharp he actually is irl. What does this prove? Absolutely diddly squat (to use the vernacular).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,787
    Late afternoon all :)

    It's all been grand theatre and a lot of fun today. I wonder when the actual decision was taken and on what basis. As might be expected, there's a run back to the big two parties at the first hint of electoral gunfire but that means nothing until the campaign proper starts.

    Kudos to @MoonRabbit and all those who got July right having got May wrong and especially well done to those who backed July.

    Fortunately we have plenty of other entertainment in June (football, Royal Ascot, start of Winbledon) to keep us away from the election. Those who are out pounding the street will be delighted - it's much easier in June and July than November and December.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,023
    edited May 22
    If Farage was planning to take over as leader of RefUK, it might be too late.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,043
    Starmer sensibly choses to do his speech inside
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,941

    So will the Sun be supporting Labour?

    Rain, Sun, all of the elements conspiring against the Tories.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,849
    MikeL said:

    The cuts to BBC2 Newsnight take full effect on Tuesday - programme reduced to 30 mins.

    Will they have to do a temporary U turn?

    Or, more humiliatingly, not…
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
    Very good analogy! Indeed perfect

    Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run

    We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh

    Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
    Polyblank? Really?
    I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name.
    Is it Cornish, I wonder?
    I just checked. Apparently it could be derived from Old French for "white hair"

    We also had a Mr Snoswell who taught Physics

    We had a Mrs. Jolly.

    Who wasn't very.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,491
    What a wally Sunak is today. Things can only get better.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,506
    Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    Just saw on Twitter:

    Drowning Street

    I was much too far out in all the polls
    And not waving but drowning

    -- Rishi E.J. Smith, Con 17½%
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,560
    CatMan said:

    Starmer sensibly choses to do his speech inside

    He's terrible as well, to be honest. He could do with some music in the background.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,673

    Brian Cox must be happy.

    If you even out the complexion of Brian Cox with the complexion of Brian Cox, you get an average Brian Cox.

    I'm sure you're all glad I told you that. :)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen. Humiliating.

    He presumably said to his team “lads please can you arrange for the announcement to be as close a visual metaphor for my tenure as possible?”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,353
    edited May 22
    Which was the crazier decision. The snap election or announcing it in the rain with the pillock with the PA?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415

    TOPPING said:

    Turns out we didn't want a boring technocrat after Boris after all.

    The worst thing about this is that it has forever curtailed the prospect of billionaire public schoolboys becoming PM for a generation at least.

    Was he technocratic? Seemed more like an excel-nerd trying to be a populist and failing.
    It was the crap populist lurches that did him in.

    If he'd stuck to technocracy - the Windsor Framework, fiddling with the wonkier bits of the tax system, that sort of thing - he'd have been fine.

    It was the trying-to-please-GBNews stuff that made him look so much like a weird idiot.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,200
    Starmer dull as ditchwater already. Optics better than Rishi but the background still gives off a vaguely 70s vibe
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    tlg86 said:

    Starmer up. He's inside and has flags next to him. 8/10.

    Whatever your views of this Labour iteration, or of Starmer, this is classy compared to Sunak’s amateurish Drowning St.

    Keir Starmer is pretty dull but he’s competent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212
    Heathener said:

    mwadams said:

    Chris said:

    I love the way he suddenly stops speaking and just walks off.

    Will we ever see him again?
    He doesn’t like those pesky journos asking him impertinent questions. Something to watch over these next six weeks.
    Look, if you are Rishi's height, you can't risk standing in the rain and shrinking some....
  • FossFoss Posts: 984

    Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.

    Starmer may be happier about that than winning by a handful of seats - a narrow loss and he’s got a good excuse to HW and go back to the country for a proper majority. A few over and it’ll be harder to go back and he’ll be beholden to his loons.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited May 22

    Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.

    For July or July 4? The demise of KC3 would push it to July 18th as the only black Swan that's possible I think
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,491
    Independence Day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.

    And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:


    And for those who like a bit of focus:

    image
    How did you do that?! I need to sharpen up.
    Tis easy

    Here's a picture quiz. A pint of election porter for anyone who can guess the name of this building, where I was recently. Nada googlissimo

    image
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    So will the Sun be supporting Labour?

    Yes (unless the polls narrow markedly) - they like to reflect their readers' views, so it will be a "Yes"*

    *But......or "and"
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,888
    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    It's all been grand theatre and a lot of fun today. I wonder when the actual decision was taken and on what basis. As might be expected, there's a run back to the big two parties at the first hint of electoral gunfire but that means nothing until the campaign proper starts.

    Kudos to @MoonRabbit and all those who got July right having got May wrong and especially well done to those who backed July.

    Fortunately we have plenty of other entertainment in June (football, Royal Ascot, start of Winbledon) to keep us away from the election. Those who are out pounding the street will be delighted - it's much easier in June and July than November and December.

    A very important factor to bear in mind.

    How many seats has Sunak handed the Lib Dems by his decision not to have a winter election, when nobody wants to go out?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,672
    CatMan said:

    Starmer sensibly choses to do his speech inside

    I've not seen it but I assume - at least if I were his adviser I'd suggest - it was simple and along the lines of this lot have had their chance and they blew it. It's time for a change.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,506

    Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".

    https://www.youtube.com/live/ta2nEmoUQTE

    If you want to watch/hear it.

    The timing is odd. Unless Rishi knows something, what he has done is give his own side six fewer monthly pay cheques, and brought forward a Labour government, which by definition his side thinks is a bad thing.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Sky News just closed out Keir Starmer’s speech with, ‘The Prime Mi …’ and then stopped.

    Ooops.

    No presumption. The beauty of this democracy is that the people will decide.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,672
    ClippP said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    It's all been grand theatre and a lot of fun today. I wonder when the actual decision was taken and on what basis. As might be expected, there's a run back to the big two parties at the first hint of electoral gunfire but that means nothing until the campaign proper starts.

    Kudos to @MoonRabbit and all those who got July right having got May wrong and especially well done to those who backed July.

    Fortunately we have plenty of other entertainment in June (football, Royal Ascot, start of Winbledon) to keep us away from the election. Those who are out pounding the street will be delighted - it's much easier in June and July than November and December.

    A very important factor to bear in mind.

    How many seats has Sunak handed the Lib Dems by his decision not to have a winter election, when nobody wants to go out?
    As luck would have it I'm hosting our local Lib Dem candidate hustings at my house this evening. Not a moment too soon - they'll need to confirm the PPC quickly. Not that it matters in a seat that already has a 33k Labour majority.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,771

    Heathener said:

    And the Daily Mail:

    Heathener, these a re unreadable. Please at least quote the headline if you are going to post through Vanilla.
    Why are all images blurry these days?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,668
    edited May 22
    Mr. Leon, the octagonal tower makes me think of Constantinople (so Istanbul).

    Edited: but it's the bit of Italy you said reminded you of Aragon and the Byzantine Empire, the name of which I forget.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,514

    Which was the crazier decision. The snap election or announcing it in the rain with the pillock with the PA?

    Not even close.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".

    https://www.youtube.com/live/ta2nEmoUQTE

    If you want to watch/hear it.

    The timing is odd. Unless Rishi knows something, what he has done is give his own side six fewer monthly pay cheques, and brought forward a Labour government, which by definition his side thinks is a bad thing.
    Rumour is that the threshold of No Confidence was close. BBC or Sky News mentioned this earlier.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Mr. Leon, the octagonal tower makes me think of Constantinople (so Istanbul).

    No, but an interesting guess. The building DOES contain Islamic elements (infamously)
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,780
    Gives me a chance to plug this postpunk classic

    Husker Du: Standing in the Rain

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ad7gfb3hPpY
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,276
    AlsoLei said:

    "Voters

    Why oh why oh why did they announce it now. Here. Outside?

    All the "you don't know what you'll get with Labour" stuff was rather let down by his own failure to look at a short-term weather forecast...
    Or control the aural environment.

    Bray is an irritating pillock, but that's not the point. If you can't deal with something as entirely predictable as that, then you're just politically incompetent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212
    edited May 22

    Which was the crazier decision. The snap election or announcing it in the rain with the pillock with the PA?

    The pillock with the PA probaly brought half a million back from Reform to the Tories.

    This is Labour. 5 years of putting your blood pressure up 25 points.....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,506
    edited May 22

    Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.

    For July or July 4? The demise of KC3 would push it to July 18th as the only black Swan that's possible I think
    For July. £6,255 available at 1.01 which is actually rising, which is probably due to profit-taking (or someone very clever knows of an incoming comet).

    Market link
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223758498

    Also 1.01 for July to September at
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.218024805

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Fuck me it is STILL raining. Literally non stop for 48 hours
This discussion has been closed.