Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
In any case- is there a magnitude and duration of support for Bregret/Brejoin/Brejoin even if it means adopting the Euro that would make you think 'this is probably unwise, but it is the will of the people'?
@wethinkpolling · May 17 Replying to @wethinkpolling And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow? ❎ Stay Out: 39% (-2) ☑️ Re-Join: 39% (NC) 😐 Wouldn’t vote: 11% (+1) 🤷♂️ Don’t know: 11% (+1)
Rejoin even 9% below the 48% Remain got in 2016 and a massive 19% behind the 58% Wrong to Leave the EU Yougov has if rejoining the Euro becomes a requirement
Ultimately that's the only argument those who supported LEAVE eight long years ago still have - the EU would allow us to rejoin (or join) only if we accepted "full" membership (Euro, Schengen, FoM etc).
We don't know that for a fact but the perception is enough. None of it matters - the immolation of your party at the next election will be lesson enough for any party wishing to re-open (or open) that can of worms.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Surely inevitable that we'll rejoin. Just watching all these peripheral European countries falling over each other to be admitted will be getting through to the uncommitted what we have let go.
Because both the Euro and political union are serious sticking points, it remains compellingly obvious that the Norway/Iceland/Switzerland options are the ones to consider; and they are entirely in conformity with the Brexit vote. It isn't perfect, but the status quo and rejoin are not perfect either.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
Labour have managed 3 (or 4?) 180° turns in their position on Europe over the years, but the Tories have only really had one. They're going to need to work harder if they're going to catch up...
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
I wholly agree, but the Francois wing needs to die out before the Conservatives wake up and smell the coffee
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
So still 11% more with Yougov think we were right to leave the EU than the Tories current 20% Yougov poll rating, so hard to see the Conservatives moving away from Brexit even if they do lose the next GE
Another way of looking at it is that they could go for the 58% which no other party wants to touch. There were some cost of Brexit figures in the middle of last week and the cost of Brexiting has been horrendous
No they couldn't, 80-90% of the 58% wouldn't touch the Tories with a bargepole even if they wanted to reverse Brexit as they are ideologically left of centre. While if the Tories tried that most of their remaining support would go to ReformUK, effectively wiping them out under FPTP.
The only way we rejoin the EU is if a Labour government has been re elected and willing to take the risk next time or if we get PR and the LDs hold the balance of power and agree rejoin with Labour and a small pro EU Tory party electing MPs with PR (albeit even they likely prefer EEA)
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
Labour have managed 3 (or 4?) 180° turns in their position on Europe over the years, but the Tories have only really had one. They're going to need to work harder if they're going to catch up...
If the Conservatives pitched themselves as the party of rejoin against the failed Brexit supported by Starmer-Labour in GE 2024 they would win a landslide.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
There is zero chance of the Conservatives doing it themselves, at most they would reluctantly accept remaining in the EU in 15-20 years if elected into power again if a Labour government had already rejoined the EU.
Any Conservative platform pushing rejoin for at least the next 2 decades would otherwise almost certainly see Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right (probably the same would happen even under PR albeit a pro EU Tories might win a few MPs rather than get the wipeout they would face under FPTP)
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
No, but it probably gives Labour pretty broad leeway for closer a relationship with the EU that falls short of membership.
This is a chimera. We already have a close relationship now, and short of rejoining the single market there isn't anything especially substantive that we could do.
Working out agreements on closer border co-operation, services trade etc is good. Membership of specific EU structures, on the other hand, not so much.
In any case- is there a magnitude and duration of support for Bregret/Brejoin/Brejoin even if it means adopting the Euro that would make you think 'this is probably unwise, but it is the will of the people'?
@wethinkpolling · May 17 Replying to @wethinkpolling And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow? ❎ Stay Out: 39% (-2) ☑️ Re-Join: 39% (NC) 😐 Wouldn’t vote: 11% (+1) 🤷♂️ Don’t know: 11% (+1)
Can I please vote for the option of adopting the Euro, joining Schengen, but staying out of the EU?
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
There is zero chance of the Conservatives doing it themselves, at most they would reluctantly accept remaining in the EU if a Labour government had already rejoined the EU.
Any Conservative platform pushing rejoin for at least the next 2 decades would otherwise almost certainly see Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right (probably the same would happen even under PR albeit a pro EU Tories might win a few MPs rather than get the wipeout they would face under FPTP)
Look at the Bregret polling. Your analysis of the Tories being usurped by Reform is not true.
If the Conservatives could rebrand themselves as a Party of one- nation feudal Tories they go back to the top of the class. Disillusioned centrist Labour and Lib Dems would bite their hand off for a. rejoin offer. All the remaining grumpy leavers join Reform who inturn decline as people of my generation fall off the perch.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
Taranto in a rainstorm on a weird Saturday night surrounded by fascist architecture, Spartan ruins, the end of the appian way, trainee sacra corona unita gangsters, and endless alleys going nowhere in a mildly terrifying yellow light or they open up to satanic industryscapes of belching steelworks and NATO warships
It’s like Don’t Look Now meets Eraserhead meets the passion of the Christ
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
There is zero chance of the Conservatives doing it themselves, at most they would reluctantly accept remaining in the EU if a Labour government had already rejoined the EU.
Any Conservative platform pushing rejoin for at least the next 2 decades would otherwise almost certainly see Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right (probably the same would happen even under PR albeit a pro EU Tories might win a few MPs rather than get the wipeout they would face under FPTP)
Look at the polling. Your analysis of the Tories being usurped by Reform is not true.
If the Conservatives could rebrand themselves as a Party of one- nation feudal Tories they go back to the top of the class. Disillusioned centrist Labour and Lib Dems would bite their hand off for a. rejoin offer. All the remaining grumpy leavers join Reform who inturn decline as people of my generation fall off the perch.
Actually if you look at the polling it is.
Currently the Tories win 34% of Leavers, Labour 30% and Reform 25%.
However the Tories win just 11% of Remainers to 57% for Labour and 12% for the Greens and 12% for the LDs.
So lose that 34% and replace them with the 11% and that means the Tories losing almost every seat they currently hold under FPTP, with most of their voters going to Reform who would win some seats and become the main party of the right, the main party of Leavers and the main opposition party to a Labour government.
"For the first few years of his retirement, Mr Pickett, 70, and his wife Molly, 67, drew a generous £35,000 from the fund annually...
“This made a massive difference to our quality of life, as you can imagine. It was always the intention to milk the fund in the early years, when you need money most as you are most active..
“If we had only been on £11,000 a year from the start, my wife would have had to get rid of the horse and we wouldn’t have been able to afford to go and do things. We have two sensible cars and two sports cars – a Mercedes SLK and a Mazda MX5..."
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
Labour have managed 3 (or 4?) 180° turns in their position on Europe over the years, but the Tories have only really had one. They're going to need to work harder if they're going to catch up...
If the Conservatives pitched themselves as the party of rejoin against the failed Brexit supported by Starmer-Labour in GE 2024 they would win a landslide.
No, they would be wiped out and replaced by Reform with Farage likely returning as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Surely inevitable that we'll rejoin. Just watching all these peripheral European countries falling over each other to be admitted will be getting through to the uncommitted what we have let go.
Because both the Euro and political union are serious sticking points, it remains compellingly obvious that the Norway/Iceland/Switzerland options are the ones to consider; and they are entirely in conformity with the Brexit vote. It isn't perfect, but the status quo and rejoin are not perfect either.
Sure, and that is current LD policy. Basically salami slice away Brexit until nothing is left, and once the country is happy with that, to formally apply to Rejoin. It won't happen very soon but Brexit is the turd in the swimming pool, no one will admit to being responsible for it.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Surely inevitable that we'll rejoin. Just watching all these peripheral European countries falling over each other to be admitted will be getting through to the uncommitted what we have let go.
Because both the Euro and political union are serious sticking points, it remains compellingly obvious that the Norway/Iceland/Switzerland options are the ones to consider; and they are entirely in conformity with the Brexit vote. It isn't perfect, but the status quo and rejoin are not perfect either.
I think that’s absolutely right, in the medium term. Where that takes us in the longer term may very much depend on how the EU evolves in that time. It is not inconceivable that the political landscape of the EU may change over the coming years and there may yet be a two speed Europe with associate membership or something similar on the table.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
The difficulty is that the Euro is a plain, and non returnable, step in monetary, fiscal and economic union, which is a major chunk of political union. If you don't like the Euro, you don't like the EU (at least for the UK). It remains by far the biggest reason for staying out, and joining Norway etc instead.
One can counter argue that the Euro will never work in that way. In which case why go there at all?
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
The Eurozone has outperformed the UK by about 2% since 2019 and the temptation for Labour -when they become time barred from blaming the Tories - will be to blame Brexit. My guess would be referendum number 2 in 2028 at the latest
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
Labour have managed 3 (or 4?) 180° turns in their position on Europe over the years, but the Tories have only really had one. They're going to need to work harder if they're going to catch up...
If the Conservatives pitched themselves as the party of rejoin against the failed Brexit supported by Starmer-Labour in GE 2024 they would win a landslide.
No, they would be wiped out and replaced by Reform with Farage likely returning as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
They really wouldn't. If the Conservative Party has a future, Reform-lite is not that future.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
The Eurozone has outperformed the UK by about 2% since 2019 and the temptation for Labour -when they become time barred from blaming the Tories - will be to blame Brexit. My guess would be referendum number 2 in 2028 at the latest
This is why germany et al are in recession but we aren't source your claim for the eurozone outperforming us
"For the first few years of his retirement, Mr Pickett, 70, and his wife Molly, 67, drew a generous £35,000 from the fund annually...
“This made a massive difference to our quality of life, as you can imagine. It was always the intention to milk the fund in the early years, when you need money most as you are most active..
“If we had only been on £11,000 a year from the start, my wife would have had to get rid of the horse and we wouldn’t have been able to afford to go and do things. We have two sensible cars and two sports cars – a Mercedes SLK and a Mazda MX5..."
It makes a lot of sense to forward load retirement income. My observation is that the best years are before age 80, after that declining health coupled with shifts of interest means that income needs are lower. Then there's the issue of means testing for social care. It's best not to have too much in the way of assets at that point, having either spent or given them away before then.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
Labour have managed 3 (or 4?) 180° turns in their position on Europe over the years, but the Tories have only really had one. They're going to need to work harder if they're going to catch up...
If the Conservatives pitched themselves as the party of rejoin against the failed Brexit supported by Starmer-Labour in GE 2024 they would win a landslide.
No, they would be wiped out and replaced by Reform with Farage likely returning as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
They really wouldn't. If the Conservative Party has a future, Reform-lite is not that future.
The thing is, Brexit support is a moving target. And unless something happens to persuade Remain voters that they should change their mind, the default is for support to follow the moves of the Grim Reaper.
The next interesting point is when there are more potential votes for the Conservatives in chasing the support of some Bregretters rather than being the party of Brexit. 2:1 isn't quite enough, though I suspect 3:1 is.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
The Eurozone has outperformed the UK by about 2% since 2019 and the temptation for Labour -when they become time barred from blaming the Tories - will be to blame Brexit. My guess would be referendum number 2 in 2028 at the latest
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
The difficulty is that the Euro is a plain, and non returnable, step in monetary, fiscal and economic union, which is a major chunk of political union. If you don't like the Euro, you don't like the EU (at least for the UK). It remains by far the biggest reason for staying out, and joining Norway etc instead.
One can counter argue that the Euro will never work in that way. In which case why go there at all?
Brexiteers are getting desperate. Own it, make it work. At the moment it's all, "even though it's proven to be shite, you can't steal my Brexit because of er, er, save the pound"!
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Do you think the Party which has led the Government for 14 years has made any serious impact on any of these problems? Perhaps if it hadn't spent so much time on its own self-indulgence regarding Europe and the EU, some progress might have been made.
That’s the key.
People can see that the Tories’ obsession with Brexit, and with their hard Brexit, has not only damaged us directly, but also indirectly because while their frothy psychodrama played out, nothing else was getting done by, or even getting much attention from, our purported rulers.
“Get Brexit Done” was a winning slogan because of the “Done”, not so much the “Brexit”. People hoped that once it was ‘done’ the government could and would get back to all the bread and butter issues that are crying out for attention. But have the Tories thrown themselves heart and soul into these? Under Johnson - no; Truss - no; Sunak - no. That’s why their poll rating is in the gutter.
"For the first few years of his retirement, Mr Pickett, 70, and his wife Molly, 67, drew a generous £35,000 from the fund annually...
“This made a massive difference to our quality of life, as you can imagine. It was always the intention to milk the fund in the early years, when you need money most as you are most active..
“If we had only been on £11,000 a year from the start, my wife would have had to get rid of the horse and we wouldn’t have been able to afford to go and do things. We have two sensible cars and two sports cars – a Mercedes SLK and a Mazda MX5..."
It makes a lot of sense to forward load retirement income. My observation is that the best years are before age 80, after that declining health coupled with shifts of interest means that income needs are lower. Then there's the issue of means testing for social care. It's best not to have too much in the way of assets at that point, having either spent or given them away before then.
This is why we should go logan's run at 80 gives everyone a definite target
Labour 43% (+3) Conservatives 25% (+1) Lib Dems 9% (-2) SNP 3% (n/c) Greens 7% (n/c) Reform 10% (-2)
Another poor poll for both Reform and the LDs but the overall split between Con/Ref and Lab/LD/Green is 35-59 so little changed. It's hard to be certain at this time and much more data and analysis is required but there's some evidence the Reform decline isn't being fully reflected in a rise in Conservative VI.
It's another very good poll for Labour who remain in a very strong position.
Steady as she goes. Not much impact from locals or other events.
The Refuk rise certainly appears to have ended for now - not much sign of any of their share going back to the Tories, though.
We're 6-8 months away from the end of the parliament, so you'd normally expect Lab-Con swingback to be underway by this point. Perhaps significant that we're not seeing any?
“not much sign of any of their share going back to the Tories, though”
Later today an Opinium with at least 2 point rise in Tory rating, showing the Ref to Tory melt back is very real and happening quite quickly now at this stage. Perhaps tonight is the first time the penny drops with many people. I won’t say I told you so when election is 39 33.
And as I've pointed out before - not all Reform voters are / will switching to the Tory party (Reform down 2% only 50% of whom seems to have swapped to the Tories). And yes it's all equally within Margin of Error...
Great call from @MoonRabbit. She said at circa 2pm that the Labour lead would be under twenty on Opinium . After a shocker for Starmer Labour this week they have only pulled away within MoE
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
Those facts unfortunately probably won’t survive the onslaught of mis information and scare stories during a re-join campaign.
I expect we’ll see bus part 2 roaming around the country !
Today I got given the third book about walking that I've been given by people on my mail round
This lovely gift, from a retired lady who goes off to places in her campervan to swim in rivers, lakes and the sea, was "The Walker's Year" by David Bathurst
She said she saw it in a bookshop on a trip she had while I was away, and immediately thought of me
And as I've pointed out before - not all Reform voters are / will switching to the Tory party (Reform down 2% only 50% of whom seems to have swapped to the Tories). And yes it's all equally within Margin of Error...
No reason why it should either. The Reform bubble wasn't just at the Conservatives' expense, so it would be surprising if they were the only ones to gain from its deflation.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
I have a genuinely delicious picture quiz which will appeal to the many PB classical history-philes
I might regret this but... either:
1. Include the image's URL in a the text {img src="...URL..."} (but replacing { and } with the less than and greater than signs) if the impage is already on the internet somewhere, or
2. Post the image to an image sharing site (I use Imgur) and then link to it as above.
Great call from @MoonRabbit. She said at circa 2pm that the Labour lead would be under twenty on Opinium . After a shocker for Starmer Labour this week they have only pulled away within MoE
Well done Rabbit!
Except Opinium have never had a lead of 18% before except 1 week in early February (which was also 18%). most of the time Opinium have a 14-15% lead when others are over 20%...
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
Labour have managed 3 (or 4?) 180° turns in their position on Europe over the years, but the Tories have only really had one. They're going to need to work harder if they're going to catch up...
If the Conservatives pitched themselves as the party of rejoin against the failed Brexit supported by Starmer-Labour in GE 2024 they would win a landslide.
No, they would be wiped out and replaced by Reform with Farage likely returning as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
They really wouldn't. If the Conservative Party has a future, Reform-lite is not that future.
If the Conservative Party backs rejoin the EU now or in the next decade they won't have any future at all as they will go extinct, most of their remaining voters having already moved to Reform who will replace them as the main party of the right
Labour 43% (+3) Conservatives 25% (+1) Lib Dems 9% (-2) SNP 3% (n/c) Greens 7% (n/c) Reform 10% (-2)
Another poor poll for both Reform and the LDs but the overall split between Con/Ref and Lab/LD/Green is 35-59 so little changed. It's hard to be certain at this time and much more data and analysis is required but there's some evidence the Reform decline isn't being fully reflected in a rise in Conservative VI.
It's another very good poll for Labour who remain in a very strong position.
When Opinium changed their methodology they did point out that the allocation of DKs to their 2019 vote may well cause an apparent swing to Labour as the Election approaches, as the Torys will never regain 100% of these DKs.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservatives 25% (+1) Lib Dems 9% (-2) SNP 3% (n/c) Greens 7% (n/c) Reform 10% (-2)
Another poor poll for both Reform and the LDs but the overall split between Con/Ref and Lab/LD/Green is 35-59 so little changed. It's hard to be certain at this time and much more data and analysis is required but there's some evidence the Reform decline isn't being fully reflected in a rise in Conservative VI.
It's another very good poll for Labour who remain in a very strong position.
When Opinium changed their methodology they did point out that the allocation of DKs to their 2019 vote may well cause an apparent swing to Labour as the Election approaches, as the Torys will never regain 100% of these DKs.
...which kind of trashes their own method, shirley?
I have a genuinely delicious picture quiz which will appeal to the many PB classical history-philes
I might regret this but... either:
1. Include the image's URL in a the text {img src="...URL..."} (but replacing { and } with the less than and greater than signs) if the impage is already on the internet somewhere, or
2. Post the image to an image sharing site (I use Imgur) and then link to it as above.
And as I've pointed out before - not all Reform voters are / will switching to the Tory party (Reform down 2% only 50% of whom seems to have swapped to the Tories). And yes it's all equally within Margin of Error...
No reason why it should either. The Reform bubble wasn't just at the Conservatives' expense, so it would be surprising if they were the only ones to gain from its deflation.
I'm not one of the posters on here who think that come the election those Reform voters will vote for Rishi and co - personally most of those Reform voters won't turn and vote - I usually take that 10% and treat them as none voters.
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservatives 25% (+1) Lib Dems 9% (-2) SNP 3% (n/c) Greens 7% (n/c) Reform 10% (-2)
Another poor poll for both Reform and the LDs but the overall split between Con/Ref and Lab/LD/Green is 35-59 so little changed. It's hard to be certain at this time and much more data and analysis is required but there's some evidence the Reform decline isn't being fully reflected in a rise in Conservative VI.
It's another very good poll for Labour who remain in a very strong position.
When Opinium changed their methodology they did point out that the allocation of DKs to their 2019 vote may well cause an apparent swing to Labour as the Election approaches, as the Torys will never regain 100% of these DKs.
...which kind of trashes their own method, shirley?
I discussed this in my header in December. All polling companies expect the polls to move, Opinium merely anticipate this being in the opposite direction to other companies.
I have a genuinely delicious picture quiz which will appeal to the many PB classical history-philes
I might regret this but... either:
1. Include the image's URL in a the text {img src="...URL..."} (but replacing { and } with the less than and greater than signs) if the impage is already on the internet somewhere, or
2. Post the image to an image sharing site (I use Imgur) and then link to it as above.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
The difficulty is that the Euro is a plain, and non returnable, step in monetary, fiscal and economic union, which is a major chunk of political union. If you don't like the Euro, you don't like the EU (at least for the UK). It remains by far the biggest reason for staying out, and joining Norway etc instead.
One can counter argue that the Euro will never work in that way. In which case why go there at all?
Brexiteers are getting desperate. Own it, make it work. At the moment it's all, "even though it's proven to be shite, you can't steal my Brexit because of er, er, save the pound"!
It would be a pretty silly thing for the modern Tories to campaign on because who most benefits from retaining the pound, anyway? London.
The Tories have spent the past few years desperately bashing London. If they really wanted to hurt it, joining the Euro should be one of their top priorities!
You still persist with this notion every Reform voter is automatically a Conservative. It may be true in parts of Essex - there are statistically more Conservative than Labour voters anyway but generally the evidence remains inconclusive.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
The difficulty is that the Euro is a plain, and non returnable, step in monetary, fiscal and economic union, which is a major chunk of political union. If you don't like the Euro, you don't like the EU (at least for the UK). It remains by far the biggest reason for staying out, and joining Norway etc instead.
One can counter argue that the Euro will never work in that way. In which case why go there at all?
I think the issue with selling the Norway type deal is the accusation that you’re not in the room helping to make the rules , also FOM will be a hard sell .
That was the best thing about being in the EU .
I feel very blessed to still have that because of my parents
To all more generally:- What's going on with the blurry images thing?
The original explanation was too many photos posted too close together, but that can’t be right?
Insufficient dogs for scale? (Given it's you)
With dog
At least the hound looks sort of fuzzy in the first place.
If I couldn’t look up and see that the TV was sharp and clear I would be getting worried!
Is the problem limited to images uploaded via vanilla?
Yes - not an issue for other externally sourced or held images.
Any guesses on location? (Egret in place of dog for scale.)
Will no-one rid me of this turbulent question?
Fascinatingly, there's a watercourse near this church called "Puddledock Sewer", which is one of those fun place names which is the same thing three times: "puddle" from Old English "pudd" meaning ditch "dock" from Middle Dutch, meaning trench "sewer" from Latin exaquaria, meaning drain
Basically, Ditchditch Ditch
Similarly, in Worcestershire, there is Bredon Hill. bre is pre-Roman British for hill, don is Saxon for hill, so Hillhill Hill.
The union’s General Secretary Sharon Graham has accused Keir Starmer of following a policy which would allow Britain to ‘be held to ransom by Saudi Arabia or other nations’ and adds:
Labour needs to pull back from this irresponsible policy. There is clearly no viable plan for the replacement of North Sea jobs or energy security… Unite will not stand by and let workers be thrown on the scrapheap. North Sea workers cannot be sacrificed on the altar of net zero.
We have completed our deep dive into this month's local election results and found that Labour's vote distribution has become remarkably efficient in recent years.
(Splodgy image description: the larger the swing Labour need in an area, the bigger swing they are getting.)
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
To be fair, that's sort of where I am. Single, live alone, hope to be able to buy a place by myself in the medium term - though by the time I'm 40 rather than 30!
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
To all more generally:- What's going on with the blurry images thing?
The original explanation was too many photos posted too close together, but that can’t be right?
Insufficient dogs for scale? (Given it's you)
With dog
At least the hound looks sort of fuzzy in the first place.
If I couldn’t look up and see that the TV was sharp and clear I would be getting worried!
Is the problem limited to images uploaded via vanilla?
Yes - not an issue for other externally sourced or held images.
Any guesses on location? (Egret in place of dog for scale.)
Will no-one rid me of this turbulent question?
Fascinatingly, there's a watercourse near this church called "Puddledock Sewer", which is one of those fun place names which is the same thing three times: "puddle" from Old English "pudd" meaning ditch "dock" from Middle Dutch, meaning trench "sewer" from Latin exaquaria, meaning drain
Basically, Ditchditch Ditch
Similarly, in Worcestershire, there is Bredon Hill. bre is pre-Roman British for hill, don is Saxon for hill, so Hillhill Hill.
There is a village in Cumbria called Torpenhow i.e. Hillhillhill. There is a hill outside it called Torpenhow Hill. But the final 'hill' there is doing a lot of work, and it's more named, relatively recently, for the fun of naming sonewhere Hillhillhill Hill than for it actually being a hill. Torpenhow Slight Raise would probably be more accurate.
Unite is right. The Conservatives are cargo-cult Thatcherites and Labour are cargo-cult Conservatives. They don't actually know what they are talking about, they just include buzz words. If a lot of North Sea Oil people lose their jobs, that won't affect Labour none because heaven forfend they would mix with the working class.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
That's a lot of words for "most people are wrong".
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
That's a lot of words for "most people are wrong".
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
To be fair, that's sort of where I am. Single, live alone, hope to be able to buy a place by myself in the medium term - though by the time I'm 40 rather than 30!
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
By contrast. Most of the TA's at my place on minimum wage in their twenties have their own place. But then housing here is very cheap. £40k for a terrace. £60k in mint nick. £300 pcm to rent or less. Can only think of two still living with parents. And none sharing.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
I can't see anything like that.
I think rejoining is a really hard sell. There's the budget transfers, euro membership, the sheer embarrassment of slinking back in after failing at being out. There's a feeling that it would only happen because the country didn't believe it was capable of going it alone, had lost it's self-confidence. And so, if that self-confidence ever returned, people would want to leave again.
For Britain to become a committed member of the EU I think you'd need a bigger change in public sentiment than simply thinking that leaving was a mistake. A major war, where Britain fought alongside the Germans to achieve victory is the sort of thing that might do it.
The other thing that might help would be if the negotiations took the form of creating a new Union, between Britain and the EU, rather than off Britain being a supplicant, applying to join a club and having to complete onerous homework to be deemed worthy. But that would require a change of mind and approach from Europe too.
I really want Britain to be a full part of a United Europe, but I know most Britons disagree. I think it would be an incredible mistake to drag Britain back into the EU on the argument that the country wasn't capable of surviving on the outside. That was the mistake that was made in the first place.
In any case- is there a magnitude and duration of support for Bregret/Brejoin/Brejoin even if it means adopting the Euro that would make you think 'this is probably unwise, but it is the will of the people'?
@wethinkpolling · May 17 Replying to @wethinkpolling And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow? ❎ Stay Out: 39% (-2) ☑️ Re-Join: 39% (NC) 😐 Wouldn’t vote: 11% (+1) 🤷♂️ Don’t know: 11% (+1)
Rejoin even 9% below the 48% Remain got in 2016 and a massive 19% behind the 58% Wrong to Leave the EU Yougov has if rejoining the Euro becomes a requirement
Nope. The 2016 referendum was 37.5 : 34.5 under the same measure (entire electorate). You’re comparing one with the DKs and DNVs with one where all those are stripped out to just the yes and no answers.
It’s 50-50 when only counting the in and out choices.
You still persist with this notion every Reform voter is automatically a Conservative. It may be true in parts of Essex - there are statistically more Conservative than Labour voters anyway but generally the evidence remains inconclusive.
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to just 1% of 2019 Labour voters and 1% of LD voters who back Reform.
I have a genuinely delicious picture quiz which will appeal to the many PB classical history-philes
I might regret this but... either:
1. Include the image's URL in a the text {img src="...URL..."} (but replacing { and } with the less than and greater than signs) if the impage is already on the internet somewhere, or
2. Post the image to an image sharing site (I use Imgur) and then link to it as above.
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
To be fair, that's sort of where I am. Single, live alone, hope to be able to buy a place by myself in the medium term - though by the time I'm 40 rather than 30!
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
By contrast. Most of the TA's at my place on minimum wage in their twenties have their own place. But then housing here is very cheap. £40k for a terrace. £60k in mint nick. £300 pcm to rent or less. Can only think of two still living with parents. And none sharing.
Here still affordable, but prices have hardened quite a lot over say 7-8 years.
Average price in the East Midlands vs average price in London has gone from ~32% to ~45% in ~10 years - which is quite a change.
Here (NG17) 2 bed trad small terraces are from around 110k-120k now.
To all more generally:- What's going on with the blurry images thing?
The original explanation was too many photos posted too close together, but that can’t be right?
Insufficient dogs for scale? (Given it's you)
With dog
At least the hound looks sort of fuzzy in the first place.
If I couldn’t look up and see that the TV was sharp and clear I would be getting worried!
Is the problem limited to images uploaded via vanilla?
Yes - not an issue for other externally sourced or held images.
Any guesses on location? (Egret in place of dog for scale.)
Will no-one rid me of this turbulent question?
Fascinatingly, there's a watercourse near this church called "Puddledock Sewer", which is one of those fun place names which is the same thing three times: "puddle" from Old English "pudd" meaning ditch "dock" from Middle Dutch, meaning trench "sewer" from Latin exaquaria, meaning drain
Basically, Ditchditch Ditch
Similarly, in Worcestershire, there is Bredon Hill. bre is pre-Roman British for hill, don is Saxon for hill, so Hillhill Hill.
There is a village in Cumbria called Torpenhow i.e. Hillhillhill. There is a hill outside it called Torpenhow Hill. But the final 'hill' there is doing a lot of work, and it's more named, relatively recently, for the fun of naming sonewhere Hillhillhill Hill than for it actually being a hill. Torpenhow Slight Raise would probably be more accurate.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
I can't see anything like that.
I think rejoining is a really hard sell. There's the budget transfers, euro membership, the sheer embarrassment of slinking back in after failing at being out. There's a feeling that it would only happen because the country didn't believe it was capable of going it alone, had lost it's self-confidence. And so, if that self-confidence ever returned, people would want to leave again.
For Britain to become a committed member of the EU I think you'd need a bigger change in public sentiment than simply thinking that leaving was a mistake. A major war, where Britain fought alongside the Germans to achieve victory is the sort of thing that might do it.
The other thing that might help would be if the negotiations took the form of creating a new Union, between Britain and the EU, rather than off Britain being a supplicant, applying to join a club and having to complete onerous homework to be deemed worthy. But that would require a change of mind and approach from Europe too.
I really want Britain to be a full part of a United Europe, but I know most Britons disagree. I think it would be an incredible mistake to drag Britain back into the EU on the argument that the country wasn't capable of surviving on the outside. That was the mistake that was made in the first place.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
To be fair, that's sort of where I am. Single, live alone, hope to be able to buy a place by myself in the medium term - though by the time I'm 40 rather than 30!
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
By contrast. Most of the TA's at my place on minimum wage in their twenties have their own place. But then housing here is very cheap. £40k for a terrace. £60k in mint nick. £300 pcm to rent or less. Can only think of two still living with parents. And none sharing.
Live in London post graduation, earn a London wage in your twenties and early thirties and buy a 1 bed flat in outer London.
Then get married and move to the Midlands or North once married in your late 30s or 40s, maybe even keeping a London job if working hybrid and buy a much bigger property than you could ever have afforded in London or the Home Counties
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Do you think the Party which has led the Government for 14 years has made any serious impact on any of these problems? Perhaps if it hadn't spent so much time on its own self-indulgence regarding Europe and the EU, some progress might have been made.
Very few and that is a legitimate criticism of them. We have had a few trade treaties, the CTCPP has some potential to get us into the more dynamic parts of the world but we have done precious little to address the weaknesses we have at home.
But this government is toast, and burnt at that. The question is what is the next government going to do to address these same issues. As far as I can tell they have almost no ideas. I hope I am wrong.
To all more generally:- What's going on with the blurry images thing?
The original explanation was too many photos posted too close together, but that can’t be right?
Insufficient dogs for scale? (Given it's you)
With dog
At least the hound looks sort of fuzzy in the first place.
If I couldn’t look up and see that the TV was sharp and clear I would be getting worried!
Is the problem limited to images uploaded via vanilla?
Yes - not an issue for other externally sourced or held images.
Any guesses on location? (Egret in place of dog for scale.)
Will no-one rid me of this turbulent question?
Fascinatingly, there's a watercourse near this church called "Puddledock Sewer", which is one of those fun place names which is the same thing three times: "puddle" from Old English "pudd" meaning ditch "dock" from Middle Dutch, meaning trench "sewer" from Latin exaquaria, meaning drain
Basically, Ditchditch Ditch
Similarly, in Worcestershire, there is Bredon Hill. bre is pre-Roman British for hill, don is Saxon for hill, so Hillhill Hill.
There is a village in Cumbria called Torpenhow i.e. Hillhillhill. There is a hill outside it called Torpenhow Hill. But the final 'hill' there is doing a lot of work, and it's more named, relatively recently, for the fun of naming sonewhere Hillhillhill Hill than for it actually being a hill. Torpenhow Slight Raise would probably be more accurate.
Importantly you say it "trippenner"
I need that pronunciation like a hole in the head.
I have a genuinely delicious picture quiz which will appeal to the many PB classical history-philes
I might regret this but... either:
1. Include the image's URL in a the text {img src="...URL..."} (but replacing { and } with the less than and greater than signs) if the impage is already on the internet somewhere, or
2. Post the image to an image sharing site (I use Imgur) and then link to it as above.
Today I got given the third book about walking that I've been given by people on my mail round
This lovely gift, from a retired lady who goes off to places in her campervan to swim in rivers, lakes and the sea, was "The Walker's Year" by David Bathurst
She said she saw it in a bookshop on a trip she had while I was away, and immediately thought of me
Quite a few of the polls with smaller Labour leads have shown an increase in that lead since the locals. Most likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate, but it takes us that much closer to the election without the Tories closing the gap.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
And even if that weren't the case, the generational vibes are pointing towards Brejoin, probably on closer integration than Dave's deal (which might have stuck, even if it became suboptimal).
We left, in part, because of a wave of nostalgia for pre-EEC times. The "older people are nostalgic for their youth" thing won't change, but it will become dominated by the 80s and 90s, not the 50s and 60s.
It's not high policy, but it's how most of us operate, deep down.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Comments
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
We don't know that for a fact but the perception is enough. None of it matters - the immolation of your party at the next election will be lesson enough for any party wishing to re-open (or open) that can of worms.
The only way we rejoin the EU is if a Labour government has been re elected and willing to take the risk next time or if we get PR and the LDs hold the balance of power and agree rejoin with Labour and a small pro EU Tory party electing MPs with PR (albeit even they likely prefer EEA)
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Any Conservative platform pushing rejoin for at least the next 2 decades would otherwise almost certainly see Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right (probably the same would happen even under PR albeit a pro EU Tories might win a few MPs rather than get the wipeout they would face under FPTP)
If the Conservatives could rebrand themselves as a Party of one- nation feudal Tories they go back to the top of the class. Disillusioned centrist Labour and Lib Dems would bite their hand off for a. rejoin offer. All the remaining grumpy leavers join Reform who inturn decline as people of my generation fall off the perch.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
Taranto in a rainstorm on a weird Saturday night surrounded by fascist architecture, Spartan ruins, the end of the appian way, trainee sacra corona unita gangsters, and endless alleys going nowhere in a mildly terrifying yellow light or they open up to satanic industryscapes of belching steelworks and NATO warships
It’s like Don’t Look Now meets Eraserhead meets the passion of the Christ
Currently the Tories win 34% of Leavers, Labour 30% and Reform 25%.
However the Tories win just 11% of Remainers to 57% for Labour and 12% for the Greens and 12% for the LDs.
So lose that 34% and replace them with the 11% and that means the Tories losing almost every seat they currently hold under FPTP, with most of their voters going to Reform who would win some seats and become the main party of the right, the main party of Leavers and the main opposition party to a Labour government.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240516_W.pdf
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retirement/cashed-final-salary-pension-tripled-retirement-income/
"For the first few years of his retirement, Mr Pickett, 70, and his wife Molly, 67, drew a generous £35,000 from the fund annually...
“This made a massive difference to our quality of life, as you can imagine. It was always the intention to milk the fund in the early years, when you need money most as you are most active..
“If we had only been on £11,000 a year from the start, my wife would have had to get rid of the horse and we wouldn’t have been able to afford to go and do things. We have two sensible cars and two sports cars – a Mercedes SLK and a Mazda MX5..."
One can counter argue that the Euro will never work in that way. In which case why go there at all?
The next interesting point is when there are more potential votes for the Conservatives in chasing the support of some Bregretters rather than being the party of Brexit. 2:1 isn't quite enough, though I suspect 3:1 is.
@OpiniumResearch
🚨 New polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour lead is now 18 points:
· Labour 43% (+3)
· Conservatives 25% (+1)
· Lib Dems 9% (-2)
· SNP 3% (n/c)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (-2)
People can see that the Tories’ obsession with Brexit, and with their hard Brexit, has not only damaged us directly, but also indirectly because while their frothy psychodrama played out, nothing else was getting done by, or even getting much attention from, our purported rulers.
“Get Brexit Done” was a winning slogan because of the “Done”, not so much the “Brexit”. People hoped that once it was ‘done’ the government could and would get back to all the bread and butter issues that are crying out for attention. But have the Tories thrown themselves heart and soul into these? Under Johnson - no; Truss - no; Sunak - no. That’s why their poll rating is in the gutter.
🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK
Labour lead is now 18 points:
· Labour 43% (+3)
· Conservatives 25% (+1)
· Lib Dems 9% (-2)
· SNP 3% (n/c)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (-2)
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1791906610761069031
Labour 43% (+3)
Conservatives 25% (+1)
Lib Dems 9% (-2)
SNP 3% (n/c)
Greens 7% (n/c)
Reform 10% (-2)
Another poor poll for both Reform and the LDs but the overall split between Con/Ref and Lab/LD/Green is 35-59 so little changed. It's hard to be certain at this time and much more data and analysis is required but there's some evidence the Reform decline isn't being fully reflected in a rise in Conservative VI.
It's another very good poll for Labour who remain in a very strong position.
Well done Rabbit!
I have a genuinely delicious picture quiz which will appeal to the many PB classical history-philes
I expect we’ll see bus part 2 roaming around the country !
This lovely gift, from a retired lady who goes off to places in her campervan to swim in rivers, lakes and the sea, was "The Walker's Year" by David Bathurst
She said she saw it in a bookshop on a trip she had while I was away, and immediately thought of me
https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-walkers-year/david-bathurst/9781849536967
Refuk still fading, but the Tories aren't gaining as much as they should.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
1. Include the image's URL in a the text {img src="...URL..."} (but replacing { and } with the less than and greater than signs) if the impage is already on the internet somewhere, or
2. Post the image to an image sharing site (I use Imgur) and then link to it as above.
Edit ...URL... is the whole image URL e.g. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GN34JC1XYAAhabm?format=png&name=900x900
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=25&LAB=43&LIB=9&Reform=10&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.6&SCOTLAB=32.7&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=5.7&SCOTGreen=3.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/12/02/sweet-swingbacks-baadasssss-song/
The Tories have spent the past few years desperately bashing London. If they really wanted to hurt it, joining the Euro should be one of their top priorities!
That was the best thing about being in the EU .
I feel very blessed to still have that because of my parents
I was going to the piccie is a bit off the wall, but I don't think it is.
bre is pre-Roman British for hill,
don is Saxon for hill,
so Hillhill Hill.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/labour-and-unite-go-to-war-over-oil/
The union’s General Secretary Sharon Graham has accused Keir Starmer of following a policy which would allow Britain to ‘be held to ransom by Saudi Arabia or other nations’ and adds:
Labour needs to pull back from this irresponsible policy. There is clearly no viable plan for the replacement of North Sea jobs or energy security… Unite will not stand by and let workers be thrown on the scrapheap. North Sea workers cannot be sacrificed on the altar of net zero.
You might want to consider this;
We have completed our deep dive into this month's local election results and found that Labour's vote distribution has become remarkably efficient in recent years.
(Splodgy image description: the larger the swing Labour need in an area, the bigger swing they are getting.)
https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1791506496594853996
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
The shape is very early or fake very early, but the offset porch is unusual.
That does not look to be on canonical alignment, again unless the porch is irregular.
Edit: it appears it does!
But then housing here is very cheap.
£40k for a terrace. £60k in mint nick.
£300 pcm to rent or less.
Can only think of two still living with parents. And none sharing.
I think rejoining is a really hard sell. There's the budget transfers, euro membership, the sheer embarrassment of slinking back in after failing at being out. There's a feeling that it would only happen because the country didn't believe it was capable of going it alone, had lost it's self-confidence. And so, if that self-confidence ever returned, people would want to leave again.
For Britain to become a committed member of the EU I think you'd need a bigger change in public sentiment than simply thinking that leaving was a mistake. A major war, where Britain fought alongside the Germans to achieve victory is the sort of thing that might do it.
The other thing that might help would be if the negotiations took the form of creating a new Union, between Britain and the EU, rather than off Britain being a supplicant, applying to join a club and having to complete onerous homework to be deemed worthy. But that would require a change of mind and approach from Europe too.
I really want Britain to be a full part of a United Europe, but I know most Britons disagree. I think it would be an incredible mistake to drag Britain back into the EU on the argument that the country wasn't capable of surviving on the outside. That was the mistake that was made in the first place.
The 2016 referendum was 37.5 : 34.5 under the same measure (entire electorate).
You’re comparing one with the DKs and DNVs with one where all those are stripped out to just the yes and no answers.
It’s 50-50 when only counting the in and out choices.
Even the Greens are more mixed, 10% voted Labour last time but 3% voted Tory and 3% LD
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240516_W.pdf
I promise not to spam the site with my vinos
I’m also way too knackered to wrap my head around this tonight. Taranto is INTENSE
Average price in the East Midlands vs average price in London has gone from ~32% to ~45% in ~10 years - which is quite a change.
Here (NG17) 2 bed trad small terraces are from around 110k-120k now.
Wny? Because in the end money talks and BS walks.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
Then get married and move to the Midlands or North once married in your late 30s or 40s, maybe even keeping a London job if working hybrid and buy a much bigger property than you could ever have afforded in London or the Home Counties
But this government is toast, and burnt at that. The question is what is the next government going to do to address these same issues. As far as I can tell they have almost no ideas. I hope I am wrong.
The link ends with something like
?format=jpg&name=large
Change that bit to
.jpg
Then post the link in the way Ben describes
Or be sensible and use Vanilla "Attach image" button and paste the link in there
We can thrive (again) as members.
We left, in part, because of a wave of nostalgia for pre-EEC times. The "older people are nostalgic for their youth" thing won't change, but it will become dominated by the 80s and 90s, not the 50s and 60s.
It's not high policy, but it's how most of us operate, deep down.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?