I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
We have completed our deep dive into this month's local election results and found that Labour's vote distribution has become remarkably efficient in recent years.
(Splodgy image description: the larger the swing Labour need in an area, the bigger swing they are getting.)
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
To be fair, that's sort of where I am. Single, live alone, hope to be able to buy a place by myself in the medium term - though by the time I'm 40 rather than 30!
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
I've been working in London with late millenials/Gen Z. Many of them live in shared apartments in a purpose built build to rent development. The cost is about £1000 per month (sharing in a 3 bed flat). For this you get a brand new apartment, concierge, large social areas, roof top garden with views over london, gym, tennis court, right next to a tube station etc (zone 3, ok area). Their take home wage starts from £2.5k/month but many will be on more than that.
We walked past a new development, with a "subsidised" sale price. £320k for a one bed flat. One of my colleagues looked at it and calculated he would need £100k in a deposit, then the mortgage interest payments alone would be £1000 per month, pre service charge and bills. Concluded it is a bad deal and there is no point.
You could go and live a 45 minute walk from anywhere and buy a sketchy flat with 'issues' to 'get on the property ladder' but what would be the point of that? It would be an unbearable and inconceivable step down from what you had before.
We have completed our deep dive into this month's local election results and found that Labour's vote distribution has become remarkably efficient in recent years.
(Splodgy image description: the larger the swing Labour need in an area, the bigger swing they are getting.)
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
I have a genuinely delicious picture quiz which will appeal to the many PB classical history-philes
I might regret this but... either:
1. Include the image's URL in a the text {img src="...URL..."} (but replacing { and } with the less than and greater than signs) if the impage is already on the internet somewhere, or
2. Post the image to an image sharing site (I use Imgur) and then link to it as above.
I’m also way too knackered to wrap my head around this tonight. Taranto is INTENSE
For twix pics, open the full picture in a new tab
The link ends with something like
?format=jpg&name=large
Change that bit to
.jpg
Then post the link in the way Ben describes
Or be sensible and use Vanilla "Attach image" button and paste the link in there
A couple of things Blanche:
1. You don't need to open the twix picture in a new tab, nor do you have to change the URL at all. Simply right-click the twix image and select 'copy image address', then post that URL as is inside the {img src="URL"} wrapper. E.g. see my post at 21:32.
2. Isn't it the Vanilla "Attach image" button that's causing the crappy low-res images that no one can actually see?
The only Vanilla problem is uploading pics to it; PB is either full of pics, or mods have changed the settings
Maybe they could delete all of the old pics to free up space
Posting a link into a box is easier than getting into html
I started trying to write some html that posted a thumbnail with a link to the full pic, opening in a new window
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Join the single market.
I've just looked at World Bank data - in terms of average GDP growth from 2016 to 2023, the numbers are Germany 0.99%, UK 1.29%, EU 1.65% and USA 2.08%. Obviously Covid had big impact in 2020 for everyone, but Germany is no longer the economic powerhouse of the EU. It would be a different club that we re-joined. Our financial contributions would be much higher and we would be tied to a low growth area that is putting up trade tariffs. Not convinced that would be a good idea.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Join the single market.
Membership of the single market delivered a record trade deficit.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Join the single market.
I've just looked at World Bank data - in terms of average GDP growth from 2016 to 2023, the numbers are Germany 0.99%, UK 1.29%, EU 1.65% and USA 2.08%. Obviously Covid had big impact in 2020 for everyone, but Germany is no longer the economic powerhouse of the EU. It would be a different club that we re-joined. Our financial contributions would be much higher and we would be tied to a low growth area that is putting up trade tariffs. Not convinced that would be a good idea.
But your own figure the EU is doing better than us.
It isn't just economics though, we are better off in for a whole bunch of other reasons. Collective action as part of a union of nations is the answer to the threats that we face, environmental, social, migration, military. United we are strong, separate we are weak.
But your own figure the EU is doing better than us.
It isn't just economics though, we are better off in for a whole bunch of other reasons. Collective action as part of a union of nations is the answer to the threats that we face, environmental, social, migration, military. United we are strong, separate we are weak.
The Brexiteers last refuge seems to be "the EU is not doing as well as it was when we were members"
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
To be fair, that's sort of where I am. Single, live alone, hope to be able to buy a place by myself in the medium term - though by the time I'm 40 rather than 30!
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
I've been working in London with late millenials/Gen Z. Many of them live in shared apartments in a purpose built build to rent development. The cost is about £1000 per month (sharing in a 3 bed flat). For this you get a brand new apartment, concierge, large social areas, roof top garden with views over london, gym, tennis court, right next to a tube station etc (zone 3, ok area). Their take home wage starts from £2.5k/month but many will be on more than that.
We walked past a new development, with a "subsidised" sale price. £320k for a one bed flat. One of my colleagues looked at it and calculated he would need £100k in a deposit, then the mortgage interest payments alone would be £1000 per month, pre service charge and bills. Concluded it is a bad deal and there is no point.
You could go and live a 45 minute walk from anywhere and buy a sketchy flat with 'issues' to 'get on the property ladder' but what would be the point of that? It would be an unbearable and inconceivable step down from what you had before.
The property market in the UK is just utterly broken. When I was in my 20s in the early 2000s, my then girlfriend and the time saved like hell to do it. Rarely eating out, one drink when we socialized and lived in a tiny studio to save rent. Finally managed to get there by my early 30s, and buy a two bed in a middling area of London. But that was mainly to my success at work, growing my income by about 50%. And then I quickly realised any upgrade would be a decade away and I would need to make partner before I could ever afford a house with less than an hour commute to my central London office. We had two parents and two kids in 700 square feet. Eventually, I called it quits and moved to an affordable part of the world.
And the London property market has got significantly more expensive since then.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The younger generation are far more interested in the key question of our time -
Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs - can they bring back the Deltic locomotive?
Genuinely young people are only interested in AI on that list. It's the far too triggered older cohort who continue to support Brexit who get worked up about the rest .
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
Didn't know history had verdicts but the verdict right now is that Brexit was a mistake and trending increasingly so
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
Didn't know history had verdicts but the verdict right now is that Brexit was a mistake and trending increasingly so
The verdict that matters is that expressed by the voters at the ballot box. And we know what they're going to say.
Labour lead is now 18 points: · Labour 43% (+3) · Conservatives 25% (+1) · Lib Dems 9% (-2) · SNP 3% (n/c) · Greens 7% (n/c) · Reform 10% (-2)
I thought @MoonRabbit was trailing a 2 point rise for the Tories from Opinium?
Refuk still fading, but the Tories aren't gaining as much as they should.
“Refuk still fading, but the Tories aren't gaining as much as they should.”
Yes. That’s the interesting bit.
If I was in CCHQ or the Tory Campaign team this evening, and this poll flashed up in front of me, I’d probably vomit.
I am, perhaps we all are, learning via osmosis to all this polling. Different pennys drop at different times. But this poll could be a turning point in our education of what is going on.
First a NB:, a strange Opinium quirk, back in April 2023, where nearly every pollster had Sunak government 28%% or better, and the margin mid teens, the 18% Opinium lead stands out as against trend. Shows you can’t take any one poll in isolation, including tonight’s.
But Conservative voters in 2019, not just 2019 but goodness knows how many elections and generations, for at least 18 months clearly telling pollsters they are Reform voters. Yet as Reform melt away, half the melting vote so far now identify as Labour, not Tory.
Tonight’s poll is a particularly shocking one for the Conservatives.
Circle the wagons. But where should the Conservatives go after an historic drubbing? The Punchy appeal of the Ron De Santis disciple Kemi Badenoch I don’t think brings any voters back. Beware short cuts and silver bullets back to power. There aren’t any. Only the hard slow slog of returning to exactly the USP that made the Tory Party such a force in UK politics for over a 100 years. And that certainly won’t happen with Badenoch and other US MAGA infused clap trap.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
Didn't know history had verdicts but the verdict right now is that Brexit was a mistake and trending increasingly so
Opinion poll from 1978 on the Common Market:
Do you think Britain's membership in the Common Market over the past few years has or has not...?
...made Britain more prosperous than it would have been? - Has: 21% - Has not: 64%
...reduced Britain's control over her own destiny? - Has: 72% - Has not: 21%
...made food prices go up more than they would have done? - Has: 82% - Has not: 14%
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
Didn't know history had verdicts but the verdict right now is that Brexit was a mistake and trending increasingly so
Opinion poll from 1978 on the Common Market:
Do you think Britain's membership in the Common Market over the past few years has or has not...?
...made Britain more prosperous than it would have been? - Has: 21% - Has not: 64%
...reduced Britain's control over her own destiny? - Has: 72% - Has not: 21%
...made food prices go up more than they would have done? - Has: 82% - Has not: 14%
On the basis of which, of course, Labour moved towards taking a position to leave the EEC in 1981 which provoked the split of the SDP and their landslide loss in 1983.
"Europe" has caused issues right across British domestic policy, including being badly read, since the start.
FPT (and the continuing discussion of housing): These are questions, not conclusions, since answering them would require far more knowledge than I have about the UK.
Would the problems forming pair bonds in the UK contribute to a housing shortage? And if so, how much?
If fewer couples are forming among young people -- mostly the fault of men -- then it seems likely to me that many starting in life will be living single in an apartment, instead of double. (In the US there is a trend for single women who are doing well enough to start thinking about buying a home when they reach the age of 30, even though they have no prospects of getting married.)
cost of living means that young people are either staying in the family home or sharing with others. The happy bachelor/bachelorette pad is a myth.
To be fair, that's sort of where I am. Single, live alone, hope to be able to buy a place by myself in the medium term - though by the time I'm 40 rather than 30!
It's only really something available to a fortunate few working in tech or the city, though. Everyone else my age is crammed into shared houses, has had parental help to get on the housing ladder, or is doing something that'll likely prove to be a bad deal in the long run like living on a narrowboat or leasing a space in a warehouse.
I've been working in London with late millenials/Gen Z. Many of them live in shared apartments in a purpose built build to rent development. The cost is about £1000 per month (sharing in a 3 bed flat). For this you get a brand new apartment, concierge, large social areas, roof top garden with views over london, gym, tennis court, right next to a tube station etc (zone 3, ok area). Their take home wage starts from £2.5k/month but many will be on more than that.
We walked past a new development, with a "subsidised" sale price. £320k for a one bed flat. One of my colleagues looked at it and calculated he would need £100k in a deposit, then the mortgage interest payments alone would be £1000 per month, pre service charge and bills. Concluded it is a bad deal and there is no point.
You could go and live a 45 minute walk from anywhere and buy a sketchy flat with 'issues' to 'get on the property ladder' but what would be the point of that? It would be an unbearable and inconceivable step down from what you had before.
The property market in the UK is just utterly broken. When I was in my 20s in the early 2000s, my then girlfriend and the time saved like hell to do it. Rarely eating out, one drink when we socialized and lived in a tiny studio to save rent. Finally managed to get there by my early 30s, and buy a two bed in a middling area of London. But that was mainly to my success at work, growing my income by about 50%. And then I quickly realised any upgrade would be a decade away and I would need to make partner before I could ever afford a house with less than an hour commute to my central London office. We had two parents and two kids in 700 square feet. Eventually, I called it quits and moved to an affordable part of the world.
And the London property market has got significantly more expensive since then.
I think this is what most people experience to be fair. But there is quite a lot of affordable housing around London that people overlook.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
But your own figure the EU is doing better than us.
It isn't just economics though, we are better off in for a whole bunch of other reasons. Collective action as part of a union of nations is the answer to the threats that we face, environmental, social, migration, military. United we are strong, separate we are weak.
The Brexiteers last refuge seems to be "the EU is not doing as well as it was when we were members"
So why would we join?
To make us, and them better, of course.
Like we did last time.
It's quite funny how just one mention of Brexit on here summons you within about 10 minutes, presumably the intervening period is where you pleasure yourself senselessly at the prospect of another round, and upon arrival you start blustering and farting with all the fervour of Steve Bray and his loudspeaker.
I bet you don't get many dinner party invitations.
Quite a few of the polls with smaller Labour leads have shown an increase in that lead since the locals. Most likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate, but it takes us that much closer to the election without the Tories closing the gap.
Isn’t there a moment in The Deer Hunter, when they look at each other and say, what if this is it?
What if “likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate” doesn’t happen. What if the Reform melt breaking 50/50 between Con and Lab is as good as its going to get for the Conservatives?
What if a swingback adjusted poll we now know isn’t 25-43 but 22-46 unadjusted (as Peter Kelner told us) giving us less than 100 Tory seats on UNS even before any tactical vote makes seat count worse, really is it.
What if going into a winter election led by someone richer than the King of England doesn’t gain any swingback from this position, and all those historically Conservative Blue Wall seats really are going red and yellow?
We have completed our deep dive into this month's local election results and found that Labour's vote distribution has become remarkably efficient in recent years.
(Splodgy image description: the larger the swing Labour need in an area, the bigger swing they are getting.)
Basically, the size of the swing to Labour is in direct relation to the proportion of Not Labour you had previously.
Also known as common sense, and yet some people still cling to the notion of uniform swing.
It's a fallacy to assume people who obsess about a certain topic will always know more about it than those who do not, or that they will have more complex understandings underpinning their views.
Nope - gut feeling and half remembered theories which are probably wrong is the norm.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The younger generation are far more interested in the key question of our time -
Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs - can they bring back the Deltic locomotive?
Genuinely young people are only interested in AI on that list. It's the far too triggered older cohort who continue to support Brexit who get worked up about the rest .
But, that works both ways: Brexit" as a dividing issue is becoming rather passé very quickly, and the preserve of the older cohort too.
The attention span of young people to any political issue is about 6-18 months. Max.
They've all moved on. At the moment it's Gaza and Trans. Next year or so it will be something else, but it won't be Brexit.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
Didn't know history had verdicts but the verdict right now is that Brexit was a mistake and trending increasingly so
I'm told academics are all lefty pinko traitors or whatever, and it's historians who write history, so in the short term the opinion will be pretty set?
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
In any case- is there a magnitude and duration of support for Bregret/Brejoin/Brejoin even if it means adopting the Euro that would make you think 'this is probably unwise, but it is the will of the people'?
@wethinkpolling · May 17 Replying to @wethinkpolling And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow? ❎ Stay Out: 39% (-2) ☑️ Re-Join: 39% (NC) 😐 Wouldn’t vote: 11% (+1) 🤷♂️ Don’t know: 11% (+1)
Rejoin even 9% below the 48% Remain got in 2016 and a massive 19% behind the 58% Wrong to Leave the EU Yougov has if rejoining the Euro becomes a requirement
Nope. The 2016 referendum was 37.5 : 34.5 under the same measure (entire electorate). You’re comparing one with the DKs and DNVs with one where all those are stripped out to just the yes and no answers.
It’s 50-50 when only counting the in and out choices.
So, given standard EU terms, Rejoin has absolutely no lead whatsoever - and that's in one abstracted opinion poll devoid of any campaign or framing whatsoever.
I wouldn't want to even enter negotiations on that basis, yet alone fire the starting pistol on a referendum campaign.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
I won't be voting Lib Dem (well, I never have) because being disingenuous and pompous is its leitmotif.
It might find salami-slicing Brexit till there's nothing left so Rejoin is positioned as essential awfully clever but it's entirely illustrative of the contempt the party holds for the electorate and its fundamentally deceitful nature.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
Whatever's best for the Gibraltarians is the right way to proceed. The UK might want to have a powerful airbase in Gibraltar and a substantial naval force, but when the reality is paper planes and floating leaves then it is irrelevant.
Quite why the MoD fail to spend their enormous budget on things that actually look like a Defence of the realm escape me.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
It dissolves the border between Spain and Gibraltar but creates one between Gibraltar and the UK, and further isolates the UK. That's very obviously not in the interests of Gibraltarians either.
No deal.
Just like the Johnson solution to NI
It will all get easier when GB moves toward closer alignment
Bingo.
And we will. I will cautiously predict that in 10 years time we will for all practical purposes be so aligned to the EU sphere that serious conversations will start to be had about rejoin.
I remain skeptical that rejoining is on the agenda any time soon, for the practical and emotive reasons that make some aspects a hard sell politically. But the status quo does not work, and (anecdotally, but I think polling bears it out) more and more people are growing increasingly aware that those great Brexit benefits we were promised haven’t materialised.
Latest YouGov on Brexit:
Wrong to Leave 58% Right to Leave 31% DK 11%
And, a 15% swing would reverse that. Which could easily happen in a referendum where we're staring down the barrel of signing up to the Euro and full Federal Union.
Cynicism and resignation, two terribly British traits, doesn't translate to euroactivism in the wider populace.
The trend has been in only one direction.
Brexit will be the albatross around the neck of the Tory party for a long time yet. Fewer and fewer will want the architects of Britain's biggest foreign policy mistake since Suez back in power for at least a generation.
Have you seen how recent referendums have gone around the world for those who thought "the tide of history" was with them and had an unassailable lead?
One thing I hope we'll agree on though: it's something of a relief to be debating Brexit again rather than Gaza, Trans or AI.
Words I thought I'd never say, but there you go.
I take a different view. I am increasingly impatient with those who are unwilling to accept our decision and accept that we have moved on.
The challenge now is how do we make the best of where we are? How do we make a better fortune for the good ship UK plc? This involves close and friendly cooperation with our European neighbours, particularly on things like security, immigration and, of course, trade. It also involves making the best we can of our relationships with the rest of the world. It means focusing on our internal weaknesses and problems, our trade deficit, our skills shortages, our seriously inadequate public services, our inequality, our failure to protect and nurture our weak and needy. There is absolutely no end to the challenges we face. Wasting our time and energy arguing about might have beens is simply not productive.
Yes. I view it as something unnecessarily divisive, helped in no part with Theresa May opening it all up again, but it was a reckoning that was coming anyway as our position inside the EU was politically unsustainable.
What I think will happen is closer relations, with lots of fudging, but from the outside. We will do fine and it will cease to be much of an issue.
Last year we got the 2nd highest level of FDI in the whole of Europe, and we were the only country growing in FDI whilst the rest declined, and pragmatism will now reign.
Some master craftsman turd polishing going on there Casino.
We are where we are and we are not going back in my lifetime. Nonetheless a future Government without the shackles of the ERG could make some inroads into a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. It won't be the Conservative Party for the moment. However it will be a phoenix from the ashes iteration of one nation conservatism that will take Britain back to some sort of common market in twenty plus years time.
I think you underestimate how shameless the Conservative Party can be in the pursuit of victory.
My best guess is that the David Cameron (at present, utterly unknown) of 2028/2032 or so will make it their pitch. Something like "if Britain is going to be in the European system, we shouldn't be following, we should be leading". And the party, traumatised by their second/third defeat on the bounce, will swallow it.
Note, I'm not saying that's what will happen. Plenty could push that off course. It's a best guess, albeit with huge uncertainty ranges.
The Eurozone has outperformed the UK by about 2% since 2019 and the temptation for Labour -when they become time barred from blaming the Tories - will be to blame Brexit. My guess would be referendum number 2 in 2028 at the latest
This is why germany et al are in recession but we aren't source your claim for the eurozone outperforming us
From memory the Eurozone has increased by 3.8% and the UK by 1.5 since the start of lock down till now. Whether or not the Germans are in recession doesn't affect those figures
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The younger generation are far more interested in the key question of our time -
Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs - can they bring back the Deltic locomotive?
Genuinely young people are only interested in AI on that list. It's the far too triggered older cohort who continue to support Brexit who get worked up about the rest .
But, that works both ways: Brexit" as a dividing issue is becoming rather passé very quickly, and the preserve of the older cohort too.
The attention span of young people to any political issue is about 6-18 months. Max.
They've all moved on. At the moment it's Gaza and Trans. Next year or so it will be something else, but it won't be Brexit.
I agree up to a point. Brexit is over and has been really since 2016. It's what replaces EU membership is the issue. The Conservatives have nothing to say because they screwed this up badly and everyone who is not pretending knows this. Meanwhile Labour is studiously ignoring the issue.
But given the EU is the only show in town in Europe, apart from the Putin related show that no-one should want to be part of, the UK will end up dealing with the EU on its terms - aligning policy and joining programmes etc but with with no vote or co-decision. It will be a much more frustrating experience than what we had before. But we are where we are.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
I won't be voting Lib Dem (well, I never have) because being disingenuous and pompous is its leitmotif.
It might find salami-slicing Brexit till there's nothing left so Rejoin is positioned as essential awfully clever but it's entirely illustrative of the contempt the party holds for the electorate and its fundamentally deceitful nature.
No, the LDs are quite open about our policy. To move closer to Europe in a number of small steps, with Rejoin happening when the people clearly want it. Nothing deceitful at all.
Quite a few of the polls with smaller Labour leads have shown an increase in that lead since the locals. Most likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate, but it takes us that much closer to the election without the Tories closing the gap.
Isn’t there a moment in The Deer Hunter, when they look at each other and say, what if this is it?
What if “likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate” doesn’t happen. What if the Reform melt breaking 50/50 between Con and Lab is as good as its going to get for the Conservatives?
What if a swingback adjusted poll we now know isn’t 25-43 but 22-46 unadjusted (as Peter Kelner told us) giving us less than 100 Tory seats on UNS even before any tactical vote makes seat count worse, really is it.
What if going into a winter election led by someone richer than the King of England doesn’t gain any swingback from this position, and all those historically Conservative Blue Wall seats really are going red and yellow?
What if, this really is it?
I'n not sure you've got the hang of this lark. The knowledgable posters (not me!) look at the evidence and then speculate and possibly bet based on what it tells them. This Gypsy Rose Lee lark doesn't really cut it.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
I won't be voting Lib Dem (well, I never have) because being disingenuous and pompous is its leitmotif.
It might find salami-slicing Brexit till there's nothing left so Rejoin is positioned as essential awfully clever but it's entirely illustrative of the contempt the party holds for the electorate and its fundamentally deceitful nature.
No, the LDs are quite open about our policy. To move closer to Europe in a number of small steps, with Rejoin happening when the people clearly want it. Nothing deceitful at all.
I really wish the LD's were that consistent on the national vs. local level.
We have completed our deep dive into this month's local election results and found that Labour's vote distribution has become remarkably efficient in recent years.
(Splodgy image description: the larger the swing Labour need in an area, the bigger swing they are getting.)
Basically, the size of the swing to Labour is in direct relation to the proportion of Not Labour you had previously.
Also known as common sense, and yet some people still cling to the notion of uniform swing.
Yet Labour would prefer the biggest swing to be in battleground seats and lean Conservatives seat which they could win than safe Conservative seats which will stay Tory even if their majorities are slashed
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
Bremain is backward looking. It harks back to pre-2007 vision of Europe which is no longer on offer, if it ever was.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
I won't be voting Lib Dem (well, I never have) because being disingenuous and pompous is its leitmotif.
It might find salami-slicing Brexit till there's nothing left so Rejoin is positioned as essential awfully clever but it's entirely illustrative of the contempt the party holds for the electorate and its fundamentally deceitful nature.
No, the LDs are quite open about our policy. To move closer to Europe in a number of small steps, with Rejoin happening when the people clearly want it. Nothing deceitful at all.
I really wish the LD's were that consistent on the national vs. local level.
I have no problem with local parties having different views, though in my experience local LD policy and national LD policy are very closely aligned.
I think top down policy making dictatorial and anathema to democracy. It is my strongest objection to Starmarism.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
I won't be voting Lib Dem (well, I never have) because being disingenuous and pompous is its leitmotif.
It might find salami-slicing Brexit till there's nothing left so Rejoin is positioned as essential awfully clever but it's entirely illustrative of the contempt the party holds for the electorate and its fundamentally deceitful nature.
No, the LDs are quite open about our policy. To move closer to Europe in a number of small steps, with Rejoin happening when the people clearly want it. Nothing deceitful at all.
I really wish the LD's were that consistent on the national vs. local level.
The two main parties aren’t even consistent between front and backbench.
I shall be voting, pointlessly of courses because we live in an undemocratic duopolistic FPTP system, for the disingenuous and pompous Lib Dems at the next election. And gladly. In a seat that already has a 35k Labour majority.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
It strikes me that the vast majority of PBers, who I assume are owner occupiers, are quick to denigrate any form of rent control, but also don't have any solutions to the problems faced by (young, in particular) renters. Down here on the south coast average private-sector rents are around 56% of take-home pay, rising to over 60% when bills are included. On average pay, this means life is a struggle. And, of course, many rental properties at the lower end are pretty abysmal and/or pokey.
The obvious solution is more house-building, but this a) may not happen, and b) even if it does, will take many years to have an impact. The second solution is to move somewhere cheaper. But for all sorts of reasons - family, friends, work - many people can't, or don't want to, uproot. And of course, the third solution is to buy. But for most young renters down here, you're having a laugh.
So, I'd be genuinely interested if anybody has any practical solutions to the short-term and mid-term rental crisis.
Council housing. Build lots more council housing.
We already see from Scotland that rent controls don't work. They are not the anwer to the problem. The answer is to build more housing on a not for profit basis - Council houses.
Question about the "we already see from Scotland" trope. Where's the data? I looked on the ONS earlier and there was a caveat saying "don't compare this with other countries/regions of the UK, it's not the same." But that dataset was from January. So where's the recent data that's suddenly gotten people talking about it?
It has been there for a while. And some people have been talking about it for a while. Rents in Scotland at the end of 2023 were rising faster than anywhere else in the UK. Those studying these things said it was because of rent increase caps. Whilst these limit the amount landlords can increase rents for existing tenants, as soon as the tenancy is ended landlords introduce much larger rent increases prior to new tenancies to compensate on the basis that if they don't do it at that point they won't be able to during any impending tenancy.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
I'm actually unsure. It feels borderline to me. Scotland, yes. Britain, maybe. Europe, no way.
USA, China, Brazil: yes Britain, Afghanistan, Nigeria: probably Russia, India: maybe EU, Indonesia, DRC: no
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
I'm actually unsure. It feels borderline to me. Scotland, yes. Britain, maybe. Europe, no way.
It strikes me that the vast majority of PBers, who I assume are owner occupiers, are quick to denigrate any form of rent control, but also don't have any solutions to the problems faced by (young, in particular) renters. Down here on the south coast average private-sector rents are around 56% of take-home pay, rising to over 60% when bills are included. On average pay, this means life is a struggle. And, of course, many rental properties at the lower end are pretty abysmal and/or pokey.
The obvious solution is more house-building, but this a) may not happen, and b) even if it does, will take many years to have an impact. The second solution is to move somewhere cheaper. But for all sorts of reasons - family, friends, work - many people can't, or don't want to, uproot. And of course, the third solution is to buy. But for most young renters down here, you're having a laugh.
So, I'd be genuinely interested if anybody has any practical solutions to the short-term and mid-term rental crisis.
Council housing. Build lots more council housing.
We already see from Scotland that rent controls don't work. They are not the anwer to the problem. The answer is to build more housing on a not for profit basis - Council houses.
Question about the "we already see from Scotland" trope. Where's the data? I looked on the ONS earlier and there was a caveat saying "don't compare this with other countries/regions of the UK, it's not the same." But that dataset was from January. So where's the recent data that's suddenly gotten people talking about it?
It has been there for a while. And some people have been talking about it for a while. Rents in Scotland at the end of 2023 were rising faster than anywhere else in the UK. Those studying these things said it was because of rent increase caps. Whilst these limit the amount landlords can increase rents for existing tenants, as soon as the tenancy is ended landlords introduce much larger rent increases prior to new tenancies to compensate on the basis that if they don't do it at that point they won't be able to during any impending tenancy.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
My feelings exactly
I am sure Labour and the Tories will appreciate your lesson in how to win your vote by renouncing Brexit and then come third
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
I’ve been readying Diary of a Nobody this week. Mainly to understand the background meaning of “Pooterish”. And I confess to finding Charles Pooter a reasonably decent character and really not that pooterish by the received meaning of the word. I quite like him.
Quite a few of the polls with smaller Labour leads have shown an increase in that lead since the locals. Most likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate, but it takes us that much closer to the election without the Tories closing the gap.
Isn’t there a moment in The Deer Hunter, when they look at each other and say, what if this is it?
What if “likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate” doesn’t happen. What if the Reform melt breaking 50/50 between Con and Lab is as good as its going to get for the Conservatives?
What if a swingback adjusted poll we now know isn’t 25-43 but 22-46 unadjusted (as Peter Kelner told us) giving us less than 100 Tory seats on UNS even before any tactical vote makes seat count worse, really is it.
What if going into a winter election led by someone richer than the King of England doesn’t gain any swingback from this position, and all those historically Conservative Blue Wall seats really are going red and yellow?
What if, this really is it?
I'n not sure you've got the hang of this lark. The knowledgable posters (not me!) look at the evidence and then speculate and possibly bet based on what it tells them. This Gypsy Rose Lee lark doesn't really cut it.
Rather rude Roger. As you’ve been all week. Also painfully slow on the uptake.
The “what if this is it” IS based on all the evidence staring us in the face.
The “but it will tighten. There’s sure to be swingback” is the bit starting to lack in the evidence, and that at some point, perhaps already passed, steers the speculation and the betting.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
Yes. It's a group of people who use the word "British" to signify "us". It also has an army, airforce and navy, but that's a nice-to-have.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
I'm actually unsure. It feels borderline to me. Scotland, yes. Britain, maybe. Europe, no way.
Quite a few of the polls with smaller Labour leads have shown an increase in that lead since the locals. Most likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate, but it takes us that much closer to the election without the Tories closing the gap.
Isn’t there a moment in The Deer Hunter, when they look at each other and say, what if this is it?
What if “likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate” doesn’t happen. What if the Reform melt breaking 50/50 between Con and Lab is as good as its going to get for the Conservatives?
What if a swingback adjusted poll we now know isn’t 25-43 but 22-46 unadjusted (as Peter Kelner told us) giving us less than 100 Tory seats on UNS even before any tactical vote makes seat count worse, really is it.
What if going into a winter election led by someone richer than the King of England doesn’t gain any swingback from this position, and all those historically Conservative Blue Wall seats really are going red and yellow?
What if, this really is it?
I'n not sure you've got the hang of this lark. The knowledgable posters (not me!) look at the evidence and then speculate and possibly bet based on what it tells them. This Gypsy Rose Lee lark doesn't really cut it.
Rather rude Roger. As you’ve been all week. Also painfully slow on the uptake.
The “what if this is it” IS based on all the evidence staring us in the face.
The “but it will tighten. There’s sure to be swingback” is the bit starting to lack in the evidence, and that at some point, perhaps already passed, steers the speculation and the betting.
Apologies. Not intended to be. I'm finding politics much less fun than it sometimes is.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
I'm actually unsure. It feels borderline to me. Scotland, yes. Britain, maybe. Europe, no way.
How would you define British nationalism?
People who see Britain as a nation and who believe it should be an independent polity are British nationalists.
Then surely you can see why it's not inappropriate to characterise the EU as a project of nationalism. It is about asserting Europe as an indepedent, unified polity, and membership is explicitly closed to non-Europeans.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
I'm actually unsure. It feels borderline to me. Scotland, yes. Britain, maybe. Europe, no way.
Orwell correctly identified the transference, over time of allegiances from clan to area, to nation and to supra-national groupings.
There are plenty here on PB who are, in their hierarchy of identities, EU nationalists.
I don't see it the same way. I see nationalism as being predicated on the idea of a nation. If you believe the polity should be organised on sub- or supra-national bases, then you aren't a nationalist. Nationalism is the ideology that seeks to align (your) nation to independent political unit. If someone believed in Europe as a political unit AND they believed Europe was a nation, then yes, they are a nationalist. But I don't think many people believe Europe is a nation.
Orwell’s point (with which I agree) is that the system of sentiments and emotional allegiance has been moved up to ever larger units. The attachment of “nationalism” to the nation state is largely a 19th cent invention.
If you want to control rent without shit landlords you need social housing.
Build more council houses. But make them nice, and appealing to live in.
What you need is enough housing that the shit, over priced stuff doesn’t get rented.
The challenge is in large cities where no amount of new building is ever enough. That’s where, for social cohesion, you need subsidised social housing. Otherwise you end up with posh ghettoes.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
I'm actually unsure. It feels borderline to me. Scotland, yes. Britain, maybe. Europe, no way.
How would you define British nationalism?
People who see Britain as a nation and who believe it should be an independent polity are British nationalists.
Then surely you can see why it's not inappropriate to characterise the EU as a project of nationalism. It is about asserting Europe as an indepedent, unified polity, and membership is explicitly closed to non-Europeans.
I wouldn't use the word "inappropriate" because that seems freighted with a sense of disapproval. I don't disapprove of it because I don't disapprove of nationalism per se. I just this the descriptor is wrong. People who believe a supra-national geography should be an independent polity aren't nationalists. That doesn't make them better or worse, it's just they are something else. Federalist? Imperialist? Unionist? I don't know, depends on the nature of their belief. But nationalism is about mapping polities to nations. It's all quite neutral and bland. I think you probably mean something else by the word, so perhaps to help us get to the end of this you can describe what you think nationalism means and we can probably just agree we're talking about slightly different things.
National polities are generally created by states rather than vice versa.
Think of the Italian nationalists who said, "We have made Italy; now we have to make Italians." The project of European unification is analogous to Italian unification in the 19th century, based on the belief that Europeans need to unite into a single polity to be able to defend their interests in a world dominated by the superpowers of America and China.
I’m very pro EU but not a great lover of the Euro and can’t ever see the UK rejoining on those terms .
Admittedly membership has the Euro as an end point but you can fudge it by putting in hurdles that are very hard to overcome like what Brown did .
Joining the EU requires a commitment to apply for Euro membership. Your application to become a member for the Euro will be turned down if you don't meet the convergence criteria. One of the convergence criteria is membership of the ERM II. There's no need to join the ERM II when becoming a member of the EU.
So all that needs to be done is to join the EU but not join the ERM II.
This is the loophole that Sweden and Poland have very successfully used to keep themselves out of the Euro. The membership requirements of the Euro are fixed, and can't be changed without the agreement of all EU members - so the loophole will continue to exist as long as at least one member state wants to retain its own currency.
(We're probably big enough to be able to wangle a formal opt-out like Denmark has - or we had! - but there's no real need, as that loophole is enough to do the job)
If at some future point the UK is likely to rejoin the EU it will be because all sides see it their advantage. In that case they will work through the obstacles. The UK will accept the Euro or it won't be required to adopt it. Either way it won't stop the UK rejoining if that's what all parties want.
Hypotheticals aren't useful. We have no immediate prospect of joining the EU. But at the same time most people think Brexit was a mistake that's damaging the UK. We can't correct the mistake by rejoining any time soon (and hardly anyone wants another referendum), but we need to deal with the mistake somehow.
So it's about damage limitation, which is likely be to align with EU on policy and issues and take part in some programmes, but with very limited say over any of them. Which genuinely isn't a great position to be in. If you voted Leave to "take control" and the UK has lost the influence it previously had because it could vote on this stuff, you might not be happy. But we are where we are and you guys voted for it.
Most people think Brexit was a mistake <> Brexit was a mistake. It's very easy to be negative about Brexit because the last few years have been shit. But the last few years have been shit everywhere. Covid and Ukraine, innit.
Europe is an even less attractive a bloc to shackle ourselves too now than it was 8 years ago.
I believe you're overthinking this. People think Brexit is a mistake because of Brexit, not because of Ukraine, Covid etc. I agree they then append to the issues they have with Brexit some others that might have been caused by other things.
What they haven't done, remarkably, is come to terms with it. Remarkable because they have no choice in the matter. We're out.
The point was that whether it was a mistake or not is something that doesn't depend on an opinion poll. The verdict of history won't be in for several decades.
The verdict is in Vox pop, vox Dei.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Bollocks. Grow up.
You're obsessed.
No, but attitude to Brexit is a large determinant of my vote. Not just because of Brexit itself, but also the wider system of values around it. I won't be voting Tory again because of its Pooterish backward looking petty nationalism. Britain is just a better place than that. For similar reasons (and others) I won't be voting Labour either.
The EU is just a different form of nationalism.
You think Europe is a nation? That's... eccentric.
Is Britain a nation?
I'm actually unsure. It feels borderline to me. Scotland, yes. Britain, maybe. Europe, no way.
How would you define British nationalism?
People who see Britain as a nation and who believe it should be an independent polity are British nationalists.
Then surely you can see why it's not inappropriate to characterise the EU as a project of nationalism. It is about asserting Europe as an indepedent, unified polity, and membership is explicitly closed to non-Europeans.
I wouldn't use the word "inappropriate" because that seems freighted with a sense of disapproval. I don't disapprove of it because I don't disapprove of nationalism per se. I just this the descriptor is wrong. People who believe a supra-national geography should be an independent polity aren't nationalists. That doesn't make them better or worse, it's just they are something else. Federalist? Imperialist? Unionist? I don't know, depends on the nature of their belief. But nationalism is about mapping polities to nations. It's all quite neutral and bland. I think you probably mean something else by the word, so perhaps to help us get to the end of this you can describe what you think nationalism means and we can probably just agree we're talking about slightly different things.
National polities are generally created by states rather than vice versa.
Think of the Italian nationalists who said, "We have made Italy; now we have to make Italians." The project of European unification is analogous to Italian unification in the 19th century, based on the belief that Europeans need to unite into a single polity to be able to defend their interests in a world dominated by the superpowers of America and China.
The EU elites absolutely see their project as the creation of a single European country and identity. They’ve been clear about it since 1950.
Although it makes for exciting it would be a bit of a shame if it is so close it could be argued either way, and the result is very acrimonious as a result. The pre-fight pantomime stuff you often get in Boxing is irritating enough without genuine rancour about a result. So despite rooting for Fury I would welcome a clear outcome.
Although it makes for exciting it would be a bit of a shame if it is so close it could be argued either way, and the result is very acrimonious as a result. The pre-fight pantomime stuff you often get in Boxing is irritating enough without genuine rancour about a result. So despite rooting for Fury I would welcome a clear outcome.
I’ve got Usyk at least four points up, don’t think it will be close with the judges.
No it isn't - and unlike 2020, this time the anti-democratic forces have prepared themselves, and their base, far more heavily than they did previously.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Join the single market.
Membership of the single market delivered a record trade deficit.
That might have more to do with UK industrial policy over the last 45 years. Have single market members West Germany and latterly the unified Germany been running trade deficits over the last 30 or 40 years?
I do love your proclamations, and you've made several this evening. You remind me of Eric Cantona. “When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea ".
Rereading that Orwell piece, I'm struck by how starkly miserable he is as a writer. I really don't enjoy reading his stuff. Yes, there're clever and quotable gems in there and the vision is wonderful. But it's all so fucking dour. Better to read Heller. You get the cleverness but it's enjoyable too. Reading Orwell is like eating plain celery for lunch, every lunch, from now until the day you die. It's probably doing you some good, but you'll want to take a claw hammer to your own sphenoid within a week.
The only exception to that, in my opinion, is Down and Out in London and Paris which is quite entertaining in parts. Re Heller, I didn't get beyond page 5 of his most famous book. I'll try again some other time.
I'm going to find it difficult to believe anything in the Telegraph ever again after the 52mph cyclist debacle (which they put on the front page).
I always buy a physical paper before I get on a long train journey (the only time I do). Rotate between the Times, Guardian and Telegraph, but in the latter I can't tolerate the nonsense long enough to get to the good stuff any more.
Having EU border guards apply their controls to British citizens and access to a British territory through a RAF airbase is unacceptable.
RAF Gibraltar (such as it is) is a hangar with somewhere to plug a kettle in on the north side of the aerodrome. Frontex will be at the civilian airport on the south side. It's nothing to do with the RAF.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Join the single market.
Membership of the single market delivered a record trade deficit.
That might have more to do with UK industrial policy over the last 45 years. Have single market members West Germany and latterly the unified Germany been running trade deficits over the last 30 or 40 years?
I do love your proclamations, and you've made several this evening. You remind me of Eric Cantona. “When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea ".
Except we have very similar industrial policy now, yet our trade deficit with the EU is reducing.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Join the single market.
Membership of the single market delivered a record trade deficit.
That might have more to do with UK industrial policy over the last 45 years. Have single market members West Germany and latterly the unified Germany been running trade deficits over the last 30 or 40 years?
I do love your proclamations, and you've made several this evening. You remind me of Eric Cantona. “When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea ".
Except we have very similar industrial policy now, yet our trade deficit with the EU is reducing.
Because we are importing more from elsewhere due to the demise of friction free trade. We have not increased our level of trade with the EU.
It's not that we cannot survive outside the EU. We obviously can, it's just an unnecessary handicap, like dragging a ball and chain everywhere.
We gain a lot of freedoms back by Rejoining.
We can probably survive outside.
We can thrive (again) as members.
Hmm. I'm not sure people realise the subtle changes in the EU since we left. The German economy is having issues with increased oil and gas prices impacting their chemical and manufacturing industry, and reduced sales of equipment to China. France is becoming more powerful, but so are the eastern European nations. I'm not sure they would want us back or it would be at a price worth paying. We really might have to address our problems at home first - low growth and productivity, lack of food and energy security, high taxation that isn't giving us the social benefits that it should, and an NHS that really is not delivering the health outcomes it should for the money spent.
I'm starting to think that (shudder) Liz Truss was right in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. We need growth. Badly. How do we get it?
Join the single market.
Membership of the single market delivered a record trade deficit.
That might have more to do with UK industrial policy over the last 45 years. Have single market members West Germany and latterly the unified Germany been running trade deficits over the last 30 or 40 years?
I do love your proclamations, and you've made several this evening. You remind me of Eric Cantona. “When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea ".
Except we have very similar industrial policy now, yet our trade deficit with the EU is reducing.
Because we are importing more from elsewhere due to the demise of friction free trade. We have not increased our level of trade with the EU.
Statistically our exports are growing, but within the top line export figure hides a lie
F1: working on the pre-race tosh now, but some news worth knowing ahead of that: Piastri has a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Magnussen, losing him his front row start.
I'm going to find it difficult to believe anything in the Telegraph ever again after the 52mph cyclist debacle (which they put on the front page).
I always buy a physical paper before I get on a long train journey (the only time I do). Rotate between the Times, Guardian and Telegraph, but in the latter I can't tolerate the nonsense long enough to get to the good stuff any more.
Quite a few of the polls with smaller Labour leads have shown an increase in that lead since the locals. Most likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate, but it takes us that much closer to the election without the Tories closing the gap.
Isn’t there a moment in The Deer Hunter, when they look at each other and say, what if this is it?
What if “likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate” doesn’t happen. What if the Reform melt breaking 50/50 between Con and Lab is as good as its going to get for the Conservatives?
What if a swingback adjusted poll we now know isn’t 25-43 but 22-46 unadjusted (as Peter Kelner told us) giving us less than 100 Tory seats on UNS even before any tactical vote makes seat count worse, really is it.
What if going into a winter election led by someone richer than the King of England doesn’t gain any swingback from this position, and all those historically Conservative Blue Wall seats really are going red and yellow?
What if, this really is it?
Yes. If you look at my comment history you'll see that I explore a wide range of possibilities with my comments.
I forwarded the idea that telling pollsters they were voting Reform was a stepping stone for 2019 Tory voters on a journey to voting Labour at the next GE.
Completely insane even by the standards of the 'new' Telegraph! Reds under the beds.....let's all check
Why is it 'insane'?
Russia - and to a lesser extent China - want to destabilise the west. And such protests are an ideal way of doing it (as were the never-ending Brexit arguments...).
Earlier this week, I posted a link showing that in the 70s and 80s, Russia spread anti-western and anti-Semitic content - including the Protocols of the Elders of Zion - throughout the Middle East. Mow, Russia are flying in immigrants and taking them to the border with Poland and other states, in order to provide pressure on those countries. I would not be surprised if they were behind much of the cross-Channel shenanigans as well.
Russia and China may not be involving themselves with these protests; but it's hardly 'insane' to think that they might be.
🛑 Wes Streeting has one message for possible defectors: “My DMs are open".
He reveals he is talking to multiple MPs from the moderate One Nation faction of the Conservative Party who are wrestling with their conscience over whether to cross the floor
The Shadow Health Secretary says One Nation Tories he is speaking to face a dilhemma - do they "stay and fight" to turn their own party around?
Or do they "roll up their sleeves" and join Labour?
My full interview with Wes Streeting is in this week's Sunday @Telegraph
Comments
We walked past a new development, with a "subsidised" sale price. £320k for a one bed flat. One of my colleagues looked at it and calculated he would need £100k in a deposit, then the mortgage interest payments alone would be £1000 per month, pre service charge and bills. Concluded it is a bad deal and there is no point.
You could go and live a 45 minute walk from anywhere and buy a sketchy flat with 'issues' to 'get on the property ladder' but what would be the point of that? It would be an unbearable and inconceivable step down from what you had before.
Also known as common sense, and yet some people still cling to the notion of uniform swing.
You were right before. Brexit is the biggest mistake of the last 60 years. Reversing a mistake is not a mistake.
Maybe they could delete all of the old pics to free up space
Posting a link into a box is easier than getting into html
I started trying to write some html that posted a thumbnail with a link to the full pic, opening in a new window
Then I remembered that I was on holiday
It isn't just economics though, we are better off in for a whole bunch of other reasons. Collective action as part of a union of nations is the answer to the threats that we face, environmental, social, migration, military. United we are strong, separate we are weak.
Just thought I'd mention that.
So why would we join?
To make us, and them better, of course.
Like we did last time.
And the London property market has got significantly more expensive since then.
Refuk still fading, but the Tories aren't gaining as much as they should.
“Refuk still fading, but the Tories aren't gaining as much as they should.”
Yes. That’s the interesting bit.
If I was in CCHQ or the Tory Campaign team this evening, and this poll flashed up in front of me, I’d probably vomit.
I am, perhaps we all are, learning via osmosis to all this polling. Different pennys drop at different times. But this poll could be a turning point in our education of what is going on.
First a NB:, a strange Opinium quirk, back in April 2023, where nearly every pollster had Sunak government 28%% or better, and the margin mid teens, the 18% Opinium lead stands out as against trend. Shows you can’t take any one poll in isolation, including tonight’s.
But Conservative voters in 2019, not just 2019 but goodness knows how many elections and generations, for at least 18 months clearly telling pollsters they are Reform voters. Yet as Reform melt away, half the melting vote so far now identify as Labour, not Tory.
Tonight’s poll is a particularly shocking one for the Conservatives.
Circle the wagons. But where should the Conservatives go after an historic drubbing? The Punchy appeal of the Ron De Santis disciple Kemi Badenoch I don’t think brings any voters back. Beware short cuts and silver bullets back to power. There aren’t any. Only the hard slow slog of returning to exactly the USP that made the Tory Party such a force in UK politics for over a 100 years. And that certainly won’t happen with Badenoch and other US MAGA infused clap trap.
Do you think Britain's membership in the Common Market over the past few years has or has not...?
...made Britain more prosperous than it would have been?
- Has: 21%
- Has not: 64%
...reduced Britain's control over her own destiny?
- Has: 72%
- Has not: 21%
...made food prices go up more than they would have done?
- Has: 82%
- Has not: 14%
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/common-market-poll-may-1978
How many of them post here? I think we should be told.
You're obsessed.
"Europe" has caused issues right across British domestic policy, including being badly read, since the start.
I bet you don't get many dinner party invitations.
What if “likely it's a post-election bounce that will dissipate” doesn’t happen. What if the Reform melt breaking 50/50 between Con and Lab is as good as its going to get for the Conservatives?
What if a swingback adjusted poll we now know isn’t 25-43 but 22-46 unadjusted (as Peter Kelner told us) giving us less than 100 Tory seats on UNS even before any tactical vote makes seat count worse, really is it.
What if going into a winter election led by someone richer than the King of England doesn’t gain any swingback from this position, and all those historically Conservative Blue Wall seats really are going red and yellow?
What if, this really is it?
Nope - gut feeling and half remembered theories which are probably wrong is the norm.
The attention span of young people to any political issue is about 6-18 months. Max.
They've all moved on. At the moment it's Gaza and Trans. Next year or so it will be something else, but it won't be Brexit.
I wouldn't want to even enter negotiations on that basis, yet alone fire the starting pistol on a referendum campaign.
It might find salami-slicing Brexit till there's nothing left so Rejoin is positioned as essential awfully clever but it's entirely illustrative of the contempt the party holds for the electorate and its fundamentally deceitful nature.
And they will not be forgiven soon
But given the EU is the only show in town in Europe, apart from the Putin related show that no-one should want to be part of, the UK will end up dealing with the EU on its terms - aligning policy and joining programmes etc but with with no vote or co-decision. It will be a much more frustrating experience than what we had before. But we are where we are.
I think top down policy making dictatorial and anathema to democracy. It is my strongest objection to Starmarism.
I shall be voting, pointlessly of courses because we live in an undemocratic duopolistic FPTP system, for the disingenuous and pompous Lib Dems at the next election. And gladly. In a seat that already has a 35k Labour majority.
Britain, Afghanistan, Nigeria: probably
Russia, India: maybe
EU, Indonesia, DRC: no
Orwell correctly identified the transference, over time of allegiances from clan to area, to nation and to supra-national groupings.
There are plenty here on PB who are, in their hierarchy of identities, EU nationalists.
Was ever this.
Build more council houses. But make them nice, and appealing to live in.
The “what if this is it” IS based on all the evidence staring us in the face.
The “but it will tighten. There’s sure to be swingback” is the bit starting to lack in the evidence, and that at some point, perhaps already passed, steers the speculation and the betting.
Think of the Italian nationalists who said, "We have made Italy; now we have to make Italians." The project of European unification is analogous to Italian unification in the 19th century, based on the belief that Europeans need to unite into a single polity to be able to defend their interests in a world dominated by the superpowers of America and China.
https://youtu.be/kAfIYtpcBxo
Worth watching until the end. Particularly the Q&A.
Why America is vulnerable to a despot
Its democratic system is not as robust as it seems"
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/05/16/americas-democratic-system-is-not-as-robust-as-it-seems
🇺🇦
I do love your proclamations, and you've made several this evening. You remind me of Eric Cantona. “When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea ".
What a supreme fighter Usyk is. You have to hand it to him.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/18/russia-china-manipulate-uk-public-opinion-pro-palestine/
It is futile to complain about the consequences of laws they have established or upheld
Fred de Fossard"
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-tories-are-victims-of-themselves/
I always buy a physical paper before I get on a long train journey (the only time I do). Rotate between the Times, Guardian and Telegraph, but in the latter I can't tolerate the nonsense long enough to get to the good stuff any more.
https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-surged-to-become-one-of-the-biggest-exporters-in-the-world-but-this-isnt-all-good-news-230241
F1: working on the pre-race tosh now, but some news worth knowing ahead of that: Piastri has a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Magnussen, losing him his front row start.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/piastri-loses-front-row-grid-slot-after-penalty-for-impeding-magnussen.66AzYMEkT7Qp6Twb7Dv5lI
Betting PostF1: backed under 17.5 classified finishers at 2.15. Not the most exciting bet but my planned Piastri each way was altered rather by the penalty.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/05/imola-pre-race-2024.html
Whatever happened to the Sunday Sport?
I forwarded the idea that telling pollsters they were voting Reform was a stepping stone for 2019 Tory voters on a journey to voting Labour at the next GE.
Lots of things are possible.
Russia - and to a lesser extent China - want to destabilise the west. And such protests are an ideal way of doing it (as were the never-ending Brexit arguments...).
Earlier this week, I posted a link showing that in the 70s and 80s, Russia spread anti-western and anti-Semitic content - including the Protocols of the Elders of Zion - throughout the Middle East. Mow, Russia are flying in immigrants and taking them to the border with Poland and other states, in order to provide pressure on those countries. I would not be surprised if they were behind much of the cross-Channel shenanigans as well.
Russia and China may not be involving themselves with these protests; but it's hardly 'insane' to think that they might be.
🛑 Wes Streeting has one message for possible defectors: “My DMs are open".
He reveals he is talking to multiple MPs from the moderate One Nation faction of the Conservative Party who are wrestling with their conscience over whether to cross the floor
The Shadow Health Secretary says One Nation Tories he is speaking to face a dilhemma - do they "stay and fight" to turn their own party around?
Or do they "roll up their sleeves" and join Labour?
My full interview with Wes Streeting is in this week's Sunday
@Telegraph