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The second coming of John Swinney – politicalbetting.com
The second coming of John Swinney – politicalbetting.com
Congratulations to @JohnSwinney on becoming Leader of @theSNP and FM-elect.John's central message has been one of unity. As a party, we must heed his call, whatever has happened in the past should remain there.Let's get behind John & his team so they can deliver for Scotland. pic.twitter.com/Ep2XGXEVBH
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Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
Third.
Kate Forbes was played by Sturgeon et al.
First, you have to understand why Humza got the boot. It wasn't because he was "useless" - that was factored in when he became leader. Nor was it because he dumped the Greens - he was pressured to do that. It was because he was talking to Salmond, via Ash Regan, in order to survive the no-confidence vote. That was intolerable to Sturgeon and her friends.
However, equally intolerable was Forbes taking over. That would have destroyed Sturgeon's political project to unite "progressives" around Indy. Hence Swinney being dragged out of retirement with the threat to Forbes that the party would be ungovernable if she challenged and won. Hence her decision to back "Honest" John.
However, when Swinney steps down, probably after the next Holyrood election, Stephen Flynn (current SNP Westminster leader) will be levered in as the next Continuity/Unity leader. Forbes will over time be marginalised,although she may prove useful during the next few months for the election campaign..
QED.
Starmer leads Sunak by 14%.
At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (5 May)
Keir Starmer 43% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 29% (+1)
Changes +/- 28 April
Heh, this is quite clever from Labour.
Labour leads by 23%.
Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
The Tories will still get a hammering, but they won't be polling 21% either. Obvious, but worth saying all the same.
2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face
Firstly - the SNP losing their third party status at Westminster would be a bit of a blow.
Second that SP would be very messy Labour and the Lib Dems a nice fit, but not the Greens as are crackers and pro-Indy. SLab and SLib would just have to dare them to not vote stuff down.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.
Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.
When/if it's not July, you'll predict October and it will continue.
If it is July, you've got it right entirely by accident after wrongly predicting May.
To be fair, I also thought May. But I think I will be wrong about July and am not making any more predictions.
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
I have no clue what Sunak is going to do and I am giving up guessing, he has no logic to his decisions so trying to predict and bet on it is a loser for me.
A politician throwing the future of his party into a roulette wheel, does not disprove my analysis
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (5 May):
Disapprove: 51% (+5)
Approve: 28% (+2)
Net: -23% (-3)
Changes +/- 28 April
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787520318820532730
Registered voters who definitely plan to vote:
Biden 52%
Trump 47%
Yousaf made a monumental f***-up for the ages by publicly dumping the Greens without, apparently, giving the merest thought to basic maths. Tories would never do a deal, Labour and Lib Dems would love early elections, the Greens were humiliated and angry at Yousaf personally, and Alba were never going to offer a deal that Yousaf could possibly sell to his own party.
When Yousaf inevitably fell on his sword, it was pretty widely acknowledged that Swinney was realistically more able to steady the ship and smooth things over sufficiently with the Greens and there was a strong desire across the SNP to get a quick outcome in a time of obvious turmoil (see also Sunak and Michael Howard). Forbes saw no benefit in damaging her reputation further by forcing a contest she was doomed to lose and being blamed for stringing it out. Time is on her side - Swinney is a quarter of a century her senior, and there is a fair chance he won't be around after the next Scottish elections., and that the SNP will be in opposition
BTW (also FYI) said clock is located in front of local Mason Hall. Conspiracy? Kismet? Karma? Korma?
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
"There is No Existential Threat to Britain - Rory Stewart", Alex O'Connor, YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXGzxJoLhwg , 71 mins.
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Hamas are in Rafah.
I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
The lead in the polls bounced around 5-9% (with a couple of outliers) - the margin in the end was 2%.
So a smallish miss.
If they do, then its not.
All a macabre dance
They've not been destroyed yet.
Idiotic actions in recent weeks. They have thrown away all the support they had from me and others. You stand alone.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/6/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-pounds-rafah-as-truce-talks-stall
Meanwhile the Israeli terror machine has ordered everyone in eastern Rafah (about 100000 people, mostly civilians and recent refugees) to leave - to the northwest towards the sea.
Highest % to say 'incompetent' with Rishi Sunak as PM.
Government Competency Rating (5 May):
Incompetent: 55% (+7)
Competent: 16% (-4)
Net: -39% (-11)
Changes +/- 28 April
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787528199506628879
by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.
Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
The west has had enough of Netenyahu and his cabinet of war criminals .
Feel free to disregard me Bart but it is everyone except you.
Denialism will put you beyond the pale. There is time to step back.
If a General Election in the UK were to take place, what do British voters think would be the most likely outcome of this election? (5 May)
Labour Gov't: 63% (+5)
Conservative Gov't: 21% (-2)
Changes +/- 28 April
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787530330997502078
Rishi seems to have failed to understand the public. Surprising.
What Israeli people think will be all that matters.
As for war crimes, no Israeli will ever be held to account. It is white western justice. A few African dictators and east Europeans and that’s it.
That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.
Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.
A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.
We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.