The second coming of John Swinney – politicalbetting.com
Congratulations to @JohnSwinney on becoming Leader of @theSNP and FM-elect.John's central message has been one of unity. As a party, we must heed his call, whatever has happened in the past should remain there.Let's get behind John & his team so they can deliver for Scotland. pic.twitter.com/Ep2XGXEVBH
Comments
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First like Labour at the next election0
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Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.0 -
Second like the LibDems at the next election1
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Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.0 -
And in the real world.RochdalePioneers said:Second like the LibDems at the next election
Third.2 -
That would be a result!RochdalePioneers said:Second like the LibDems at the next election
1 -
I don't think he's the SNP's messiah, though.0
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A bit of background to Swinney's elevation:
Kate Forbes was played by Sturgeon et al.
First, you have to understand why Humza got the boot. It wasn't because he was "useless" - that was factored in when he became leader. Nor was it because he dumped the Greens - he was pressured to do that. It was because he was talking to Salmond, via Ash Regan, in order to survive the no-confidence vote. That was intolerable to Sturgeon and her friends.
However, equally intolerable was Forbes taking over. That would have destroyed Sturgeon's political project to unite "progressives" around Indy. Hence Swinney being dragged out of retirement with the threat to Forbes that the party would be ungovernable if she challenged and won. Hence her decision to back "Honest" John.
However, when Swinney steps down, probably after the next Holyrood election, Stephen Flynn (current SNP Westminster leader) will be levered in as the next Continuity/Unity leader. Forbes will over time be marginalised,although she may prove useful during the next few months for the election campaign..
QED.2 -
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.0 -
It was, now its joined YouGov in Reform UK high scoresBatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.0 -
@RedfieldWilton
Starmer leads Sunak by 14%.
At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (5 May)
Keir Starmer 43% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 29% (+1)
Changes +/- 28 April0 -
1
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You underestimate the impact Rishi Sunk can make in the next six eight months.dixiedean said:0 -
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.0 -
I wouldn't call either of them a "miss", but the 2010 and 2017 election campaigns convinced me that polls aren't worth buttons until a week or two before the election.Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.1 -
@RedfieldWilton
Labour leads by 23%.
Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April0 -
These opinion polls are really about people expressing their opnions about things as they stand - to some extent. Not about choosing a Govt. Hence the 15% Reform vote: they are a dustbin for the disaffected. That will all have changed by the end of a general election campaign.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
The Tories will still get a hammering, but they won't be polling 21% either. Obvious, but worth saying all the same.3 -
No no, not third. "nearly second"dixiedean said:1 -
That was my first guess - would be nice to see an article on polling misses.Benpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.0 -
2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leadsBenpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face1 -
On topic, two things stick out about that kind of result or similar ones.
Firstly - the SNP losing their third party status at Westminster would be a bit of a blow.
Second that SP would be very messy Labour and the Lib Dems a nice fit, but not the Greens as are crackers and pro-Indy. SLab and SLib would just have to dare them to not vote stuff down.0 -
I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.1 -
Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!MoonRabbit said:
I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.0 -
2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.wooliedyed said:
2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leadsBenpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face0 -
Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?0
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FPT
So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.
Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.0 -
I certainly do not knock your predicting but you've made so many wrong predictions now you'll be right eventually just by virtue of time.MoonRabbit said:
I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
When/if it's not July, you'll predict October and it will continue.
If it is July, you've got it right entirely by accident after wrongly predicting May.
To be fair, I also thought May. But I think I will be wrong about July and am not making any more predictions.0 -
Im not so sure. I know plenty who have voted tory all their life who now hate them.Burgessian said:
These opinion polls are really about people expressing their opnions about things as they stand - to some extent. Not about choosing a Govt. Hence the 15% Reform vote: they are a dustbin for the disaffected. That will all have changed by the end of a general election campaign.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
The Tories will still get a hammering, but they won't be polling 21% either. Obvious, but worth saying all the same.0 -
Or she’ll be another Leon, destined to be perpetually wrong. 33% for the Tories would be quite some recovery.Benpointer said:
Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!MoonRabbit said:
I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.0 -
Maybe Flynn v Forbes is shaping up as the big defining battle in a couple of years? The sort of party the SNP is, political positioning and strategy for independence, to be decided by who wins. A little bit like Healey v Benn for Labour Deputy in 81. Visceral.Burgessian said:A bit of background to Swinney's elevation:
Kate Forbes was played by Sturgeon et al.
First, you have to understand why Humza got the boot. It wasn't because he was "useless" - that was factored in when he became leader. Nor was it because he dumped the Greens - he was pressured to do that. It was because he was talking to Salmond, via Ash Regan, in order to survive the no-confidence vote. That was intolerable to Sturgeon and her friends.
However, equally intolerable was Forbes taking over. That would have destroyed Sturgeon's political project to unite "progressives" around Indy. Hence Swinney being dragged out of retirement with the threat to Forbes that the party would be ungovernable if she challenged and won. Hence her decision to back "Honest" John.
However, when Swinney steps down, probably after the next Holyrood election, Stephen Flynn (current SNP Westminster leader) will be levered in as the next Continuity/Unity leader. Forbes will over time be marginalised,although she may prove useful during the next few months for the election campaign..
QED.1 -
It wasn't too bad, but Labour's lead was mildly overstated - if the polls had been right he'd have had his three figures, but the Tory and LD shares were fairly accurate, slight overstatement of the Lab popularity.Burgessian said:
2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.wooliedyed said:
2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leadsBenpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face0 -
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.1 -
She has been wrong an awful lot, I think she's now beaten anyone else for that record.IanB2 said:
Or she’ll be another Leon, destined to be perpetually wrong. 33% for the Tories would be quite some recovery.Benpointer said:
Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!MoonRabbit said:
I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
I have no clue what Sunak is going to do and I am giving up guessing, he has no logic to his decisions so trying to predict and bet on it is a loser for me.0 -
I’ve yet to be proved wrong.Benpointer said:
Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!MoonRabbit said:
I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
A politician throwing the future of his party into a roulette wheel, does not disprove my analysis0 -
Osborne was strategically a genius. But he was a truly awful chancellor.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
Perhaps I am him, who knows?BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.3 -
So the May election happened and we all missed it?MoonRabbit said:I’ve yet to be proved wrong.
A politician throwing the future of his party into a roulette wheel, does not disprove my analysis1 -
Rishi Sunak's approval rating is -23%.
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (5 May):
Disapprove: 51% (+5)
Approve: 28% (+2)
Net: -23% (-3)
Changes +/- 28 April
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17875203188205327300 -
US election - NPR poll:
Registered voters who definitely plan to vote:
Biden 52%
Trump 47%
4 -
that'd do medixiedean said:
0 -
If so, you still owe me a gold sovereign....BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Perhaps I am him, who knows?BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.3 -
No I don't.MarqueeMark said:
If so, you still owe me a gold sovereign....BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Perhaps I am him, who knows?BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
I think you're overdoing the Kremlinology of it all.Burgessian said:A bit of background to Swinney's elevation:
Kate Forbes was played by Sturgeon et al.
First, you have to understand why Humza got the boot. It wasn't because he was "useless" - that was factored in when he became leader. Nor was it because he dumped the Greens - he was pressured to do that. It was because he was talking to Salmond, via Ash Regan, in order to survive the no-confidence vote. That was intolerable to Sturgeon and her friends.
However, equally intolerable was Forbes taking over. That would have destroyed Sturgeon's political project to unite "progressives" around Indy. Hence Swinney being dragged out of retirement with the threat to Forbes that the party would be ungovernable if she challenged and won. Hence her decision to back "Honest" John.
However, when Swinney steps down, probably after the next Holyrood election, Stephen Flynn (current SNP Westminster leader) will be levered in as the next Continuity/Unity leader. Forbes will over time be marginalised,although she may prove useful during the next few months for the election campaign..
QED.
Yousaf made a monumental f***-up for the ages by publicly dumping the Greens without, apparently, giving the merest thought to basic maths. Tories would never do a deal, Labour and Lib Dems would love early elections, the Greens were humiliated and angry at Yousaf personally, and Alba were never going to offer a deal that Yousaf could possibly sell to his own party.
When Yousaf inevitably fell on his sword, it was pretty widely acknowledged that Swinney was realistically more able to steady the ship and smooth things over sufficiently with the Greens and there was a strong desire across the SNP to get a quick outcome in a time of obvious turmoil (see also Sunak and Michael Howard). Forbes saw no benefit in damaging her reputation further by forcing a contest she was doomed to lose and being blamed for stringing it out. Time is on her side - Swinney is a quarter of a century her senior, and there is a fair chance he won't be around after the next Scottish elections., and that the SNP will be in opposition2 -
There's a broken clock a block from my humble abode, that still gives correct time . . . twice a day!BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I certainly do not knock your predicting but you've made so many wrong predictions now you'll be right eventually just by virtue of time.MoonRabbit said:
I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.
I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
When/if it's not July, you'll predict October and it will continue.
If it is July, you've got it right entirely by accident after wrongly predicting May.
To be fair, I also thought May. But I think I will be wrong about July and am not making any more predictions.
BTW (also FYI) said clock is located in front of local Mason Hall. Conspiracy? Kismet? Karma? Korma?0 -
Benpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
2015 was very poor - as of course was 1970 further back. Neither 1974 elections were good re-polling.Benpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.2 -
Broken, sleazy Net on the slide.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Rishi Sunak's approval rating is -23%.
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (5 May):
Disapprove: 51% (+5)
Approve: 28% (+2)
Net: -23% (-3)
Changes +/- 28 April
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17875203188205327302 -
BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news4 -
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
4 -
He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
Chatty and contemplative talk between Rory Stewart and Alex O'Connor (Within Reason podcasts). Not for the content (make your own mind up) but on production values: it's very well filmed, staged (is that a green-screen background?), and the sound quality is wonderful. Restful and chatty.
"There is No Existential Threat to Britain - Rory Stewart", Alex O'Connor, YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXGzxJoLhwg , 71 mins.1 -
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.0 -
Israel haven't however.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news1 -
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.2 -
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.0 -
It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.0 -
A relatively unremarked feature of the Blair years was that the polls pretty consistently overestimated the Labour vote just prior to polling day. Ultimately, it didn't matter because he won reasonably comfortably each time - but never as well as the final polls suggested he may. That hasn't been the case since - they were broadly right on Labour share in 2010, 2015 and 2019 - and in 2017 significantly underestimated Corbyn.Burgessian said:
2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.wooliedyed said:
2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leadsBenpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face0 -
They must. They are clearly nuts to total Rafah and this would ensure innocent lives are saved.wooliedyed said:
Israel haven't however.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news0 -
They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Hamas are in Rafah.
I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.0 -
Yes his Twitter makes it clear who he most despises. It's not Tories.Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
Hamas surrendering and disarming would save Rafah.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
They must. They are clearly nuts to total Rafah and this would ensure innocent lives are saved.wooliedyed said:
Israel haven't however.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news0 -
But they won't. Hamas know that. This is all for show.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
They must. They are clearly nuts to total Rafah and this would ensure innocent lives are saved.wooliedyed said:
Israel haven't however.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news0 -
You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas. What do you know that Joe Biden does not?BartholomewRoberts said:
They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Hamas are in Rafah.
I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.2 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2005_United_Kingdom_general_election#2005Burgessian said:
2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.wooliedyed said:
2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leadsBenpointer said:
1992 GE presumably?Malmesbury said:
I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.wooliedyed said:Westminster VI (5 May):
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 21% (-1)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 28 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face
The lead in the polls bounced around 5-9% (with a couple of outliers) - the margin in the end was 2%.
So a smallish miss.0 -
If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.BartholomewRoberts said:
They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Hamas are in Rafah.
I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
If they do, then its not.0 -
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.4 -
Israel now stating Hamas have accepted a softened proposal that Israel cannot accept.
All a macabre dance0 -
It is depressing to see you fall this way Bart. Basically everyone here except you now accepts Israel needs to stop.BartholomewRoberts said:
If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.BartholomewRoberts said:
They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Hamas are in Rafah.
I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
If they do, then its not.1 -
Israel should stop when Hamas are destroyed, I've said that since the start.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It is depressing to see you fall this way Bart. Basically everyone here except you now accepts Israel needs to stop.BartholomewRoberts said:
If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.BartholomewRoberts said:
They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Hamas are in Rafah.
I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
If they do, then its not.
They've not been destroyed yet.0 -
Israel are the problem here, as the US has said.wooliedyed said:Israel now stating Hamas have accepted a softened proposal that Israel cannot accept.
All a macabre dance1 -
He was however quite clever.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.1 -
Israel have gone a very odd way about "destroying" them - and they've conclusively failed to do so. They aren't going to do so, their actions are going to create a whole new generation of them.BartholomewRoberts said:Israel should stop when Hamas are destroyed, I've said that since the start.
They've not been destroyed yet.
Idiotic actions in recent weeks. They have thrown away all the support they had from me and others. You stand alone.3 -
The IRM say they have accepted the Qatari and Egyptian ceasefire proposal.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/6/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-pounds-rafah-as-truce-talks-stall
Meanwhile the Israeli terror machine has ordered everyone in eastern Rafah (about 100000 people, mostly civilians and recent refugees) to leave - to the northwest towards the sea.
2 -
As I said, he does sound a lot like me.IanB2 said:
He was however quite clever.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
What if they were hiding inside what you're always talking out of?BartholomewRoberts said:
They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Hamas are in Rafah.
I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.2 -
The UK Government's net competency rating is -39%.
Highest % to say 'incompetent' with Rishi Sunak as PM.
Government Competency Rating (5 May):
Incompetent: 55% (+7)
Competent: 16% (-4)
Net: -39% (-11)
Changes +/- 28 April
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17875281995066288790 -
No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replacedBartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.
Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.6 -
Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.EPG said:
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.0 -
He was also quite self aware.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As I said, he does sound a lot like me.IanB2 said:
He was however quite clever.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.2 -
This just confirms, that he is me.IanB2 said:
He was also quite self aware.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As I said, he does sound a lot like me.IanB2 said:
He was however quite clever.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.BartholomewRoberts said:
Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.EPG said:
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.3 -
Bart sees Palestinians as sub-human. He is totally obsessed with destroying Palestine and the Palestinian people. He is a war monger in leagues with the worst of the Israelis.DougSeal said:
That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.BartholomewRoberts said:
Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.EPG said:
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.0 -
If Israel rejects the ceasefire deal then there will be uproar.
The west has had enough of Netenyahu and his cabinet of war criminals .4 -
Perhaps Bart should question why so many here who were initially on Israel's side have decided enough is enough.
Feel free to disregard me Bart but it is everyone except you.1 -
..
Funny how Bibi and the IDF can give pretty precise figures for dead Hamas but won’t do the same for ‘collateral damage’. It’s almost like they want people to ignore all the dead kids.BartholomewRoberts said:
Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.EPG said:
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.5 -
BoomIanB2 said:
He was also quite self aware.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As I said, he does sound a lot like me.IanB2 said:
He was however quite clever.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
I do try, or do I?Taz said:
BoomIanB2 said:
He was also quite self aware.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As I said, he does sound a lot like me.IanB2 said:
He was however quite clever.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
He was quite the shit, it must be said.Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.1 -
Thank you.Sean_F said:
He was quite the shit, it must be said.Theuniondivvie said:
Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's Tim, formerly of this parish.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.
Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.0 -
The IDF has estimated the civilian share of the death toll at around two-thirds.BartholomewRoberts said:
Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.EPG said:
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
Denialism will put you beyond the pale. There is time to step back.2 -
Highest % to predict a Labour Gov't.
If a General Election in the UK were to take place, what do British voters think would be the most likely outcome of this election? (5 May)
Labour Gov't: 63% (+5)
Conservative Gov't: 21% (-2)
Changes +/- 28 April
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787530330997502078
Rishi seems to have failed to understand the public. Surprising.1 -
Israel reject the ceasefire deal and aren’t finished yet with the massacre of the Palestinians.
2 -
Do you think Bibi cares about the west ?nico679 said:If Israel rejects the ceasefire deal then there will be uproar.
The west has had enough of Netenyahu and his cabinet of war criminals .
What Israeli people think will be all that matters.
As for war crimes, no Israeli will ever be held to account. It is white western justice. A few African dictators and east Europeans and that’s it.2 -
The only way to end the recruiting sergeant is to have full employment and economic development for Palestinians, where t hey have economic opportunities and no reason to fight.DougSeal said:
No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replacedBartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.
Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.
Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.
A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.
We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.0 -
He used to be quite into the Russia ukraine conflict. Even stating what his terms for the conflict to end would be. I don’t see him mention it now.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Bart sees Palestinians as sub-human. He is totally obsessed with destroying Palestine and the Palestinian people. He is a war monger in leagues with the worst of the Israelis.DougSeal said:
That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.BartholomewRoberts said:
Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.EPG said:
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.0 -
Sky - Israel rejects the ceasefire proposal1
-
Every square inch of Ukraine should be liberated. I mentioned Ukraine earlier in this conversation.Taz said:
He used to be quite into the Russia ukraine conflict. Even stating what his terms for the conflict to end would be. I don’t see him mention it now.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Bart sees Palestinians as sub-human. He is totally obsessed with destroying Palestine and the Palestinian people. He is a war monger in leagues with the worst of the Israelis.DougSeal said:
That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.BartholomewRoberts said:
Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.EPG said:
If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's not in their hands, is it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.BartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.
If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.0 -
Good.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - Israel rejects the ceasefire proposal
0 -
BartholomewRoberts said:
The only way to end the recruiting sergeant is to have full employment and economic development for Palestinians, where t hey have economic opportunities and no reason to fight.DougSeal said:
No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replacedBartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.
Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.
Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.
A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.
We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.
Unfortunately you cannot destroy Hamas any more than you can destroy Irish Republicanism. It cannot be beaten. Fenian dead and all that. Israel has simply bolstered support for the idea of Hamas. Well, more accurately Netanyahu has by selling his country’s future for the sake of his own political survival.BartholomewRoberts said:
The only way to end the recruiting sergeant is to have full employment and economic development for Palestinians, where t hey have economic opportunities and no reason to fight.DougSeal said:
No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replacedBartholomewRoberts said:
Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.BatteryCorrectHorse said:BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780
Big news
They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.
Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.
Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.
A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.
We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.4
