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The second coming of John Swinney – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 6 in General
The second coming of John Swinney – politicalbetting.com

Congratulations to @JohnSwinney on becoming Leader of @theSNP and FM-elect.John's central message has been one of unity. As a party, we must heed his call, whatever has happened in the past should remain there.Let's get behind John & his team so they can deliver for Scotland. pic.twitter.com/Ep2XGXEVBH

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Comments

  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    First like Labour at the next election
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    Second like the LibDems at the next election
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071

    Second like the LibDems at the next election

    And in the real world.
    Third.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164

    Second like the LibDems at the next election

    That would be a result!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,284
    I don't think he's the SNP's messiah, though.
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,469
    A bit of background to Swinney's elevation:

    Kate Forbes was played by Sturgeon et al.

    First, you have to understand why Humza got the boot. It wasn't because he was "useless" - that was factored in when he became leader. Nor was it because he dumped the Greens - he was pressured to do that. It was because he was talking to Salmond, via Ash Regan, in order to survive the no-confidence vote. That was intolerable to Sturgeon and her friends.

    However, equally intolerable was Forbes taking over. That would have destroyed Sturgeon's political project to unite "progressives" around Indy. Hence Swinney being dragged out of retirement with the threat to Forbes that the party would be ungovernable if she challenged and won. Hence her decision to back "Honest" John.

    However, when Swinney steps down, probably after the next Holyrood election, Stephen Flynn (current SNP Westminster leader) will be levered in as the next Continuity/Unity leader. Forbes will over time be marginalised,although she may prove useful during the next few months for the election campaign..

    QED.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    It was, now its joined YouGov in Reform UK high scores
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @RedfieldWilton

    Starmer leads Sunak by 14%.

    At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (5 May)

    Keir Starmer 43% (+1)
    Rishi Sunak 29% (+1)

    Changes +/- 28 April
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    https://conflix.uk

    Heh, this is quite clever from Labour.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964
    dixiedean said:

    Second like the LibDems at the next election

    And in the real world.
    Third.
    You underestimate the impact Rishi Sunk can make in the next six eight months.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,088

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    I wouldn't call either of them a "miss", but the 2010 and 2017 election campaigns convinced me that polls aren't worth buttons until a week or two before the election.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @RedfieldWilton
    Labour leads by 23%.

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,469

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    These opinion polls are really about people expressing their opnions about things as they stand - to some extent. Not about choosing a Govt. Hence the 15% Reform vote: they are a dustbin for the disaffected. That will all have changed by the end of a general election campaign.

    The Tories will still get a hammering, but they won't be polling 21% either. Obvious, but worth saying all the same.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    dixiedean said:

    Second like the LibDems at the next election

    And in the real world.
    Third.
    No no, not third. "nearly second"
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
    That was my first guess - would be nice to see an article on polling misses.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
    2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leads
    2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
    92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,400
    On topic, two things stick out about that kind of result or similar ones.

    Firstly - the SNP losing their third party status at Westminster would be a bit of a blow.

    Second that SP would be very messy Labour and the Lib Dems a nice fit, but not the Greens as are crackers and pro-Indy. SLab and SLib would just have to dare them to not vote stuff down.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,885
    Nigelb said:

    I don't think he's the SNP's messiah, though.

    I don't know. Swinney is on his second resurrection. Jesus only managed one.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.

    I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4

    For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.

    I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4

    For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
    Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,469

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
    2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leads
    2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
    92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face
    2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,807
    FPT

    So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.

    Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.

    I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4

    For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
    I certainly do not knock your predicting but you've made so many wrong predictions now you'll be right eventually just by virtue of time.

    When/if it's not July, you'll predict October and it will continue.

    If it is July, you've got it right entirely by accident after wrongly predicting May.

    To be fair, I also thought May. But I think I will be wrong about July and am not making any more predictions.
  • Options
    OllyOlly Posts: 42

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    These opinion polls are really about people expressing their opnions about things as they stand - to some extent. Not about choosing a Govt. Hence the 15% Reform vote: they are a dustbin for the disaffected. That will all have changed by the end of a general election campaign.

    The Tories will still get a hammering, but they won't be polling 21% either. Obvious, but worth saying all the same.
    Im not so sure. I know plenty who have voted tory all their life who now hate them.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.

    I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4

    For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
    Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!
    Or she’ll be another Leon, destined to be perpetually wrong. 33% for the Tories would be quite some recovery.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    A bit of background to Swinney's elevation:

    Kate Forbes was played by Sturgeon et al.

    First, you have to understand why Humza got the boot. It wasn't because he was "useless" - that was factored in when he became leader. Nor was it because he dumped the Greens - he was pressured to do that. It was because he was talking to Salmond, via Ash Regan, in order to survive the no-confidence vote. That was intolerable to Sturgeon and her friends.

    However, equally intolerable was Forbes taking over. That would have destroyed Sturgeon's political project to unite "progressives" around Indy. Hence Swinney being dragged out of retirement with the threat to Forbes that the party would be ungovernable if she challenged and won. Hence her decision to back "Honest" John.

    However, when Swinney steps down, probably after the next Holyrood election, Stephen Flynn (current SNP Westminster leader) will be levered in as the next Continuity/Unity leader. Forbes will over time be marginalised,although she may prove useful during the next few months for the election campaign..

    QED.

    Maybe Flynn v Forbes is shaping up as the big defining battle in a couple of years? The sort of party the SNP is, political positioning and strategy for independence, to be decided by who wins. A little bit like Healey v Benn for Labour Deputy in 81. Visceral.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
    2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leads
    2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
    92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face
    2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.
    It wasn't too bad, but Labour's lead was mildly overstated - if the polls had been right he'd have had his three figures, but the Tory and LD shares were fairly accurate, slight overstatement of the Lab popularity.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    IanB2 said:

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.

    I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4

    For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
    Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!
    Or she’ll be another Leon, destined to be perpetually wrong. 33% for the Tories would be quite some recovery.
    She has been wrong an awful lot, I think she's now beaten anyone else for that record.

    I have no clue what Sunak is going to do and I am giving up guessing, he has no logic to his decisions so trying to predict and bet on it is a loser for me.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.

    I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4

    For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
    Keep forecasting @MoonRabbit - you'll be right eventually!
    I’ve yet to be proved wrong.

    A politician throwing the future of his party into a roulette wheel, does not disprove my analysis
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Osborne was strategically a genius. But he was a truly awful chancellor.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Perhaps I am him, who knows?
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    I’ve yet to be proved wrong.

    A politician throwing the future of his party into a roulette wheel, does not disprove my analysis

    So the May election happened and we all missed it?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    edited May 6
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't think he's the SNP's messiah, though.

    I don't know. Swinney is on his second resurrection. Jesus only managed one.
    Strictly, not so. He's only been the leader of the SNP once [edit] before.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    Rishi Sunak's approval rating is -23%.

    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (5 May):

    Disapprove: 51% (+5)
    Approve: 28% (+2)
    Net: -23% (-3)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787520318820532730
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    US election - NPR poll:

    Registered voters who definitely plan to vote:

    Biden 52%

    Trump 47%

  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,404
    dixiedean said:

    Second like the LibDems at the next election

    And in the real world.
    Third.
    that'd do me
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Perhaps I am him, who knows?
    If so, you still owe me a gold sovereign....
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Perhaps I am him, who knows?
    If so, you still owe me a gold sovereign....
    No I don't.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382
    edited May 6

    A bit of background to Swinney's elevation:

    Kate Forbes was played by Sturgeon et al.

    First, you have to understand why Humza got the boot. It wasn't because he was "useless" - that was factored in when he became leader. Nor was it because he dumped the Greens - he was pressured to do that. It was because he was talking to Salmond, via Ash Regan, in order to survive the no-confidence vote. That was intolerable to Sturgeon and her friends.

    However, equally intolerable was Forbes taking over. That would have destroyed Sturgeon's political project to unite "progressives" around Indy. Hence Swinney being dragged out of retirement with the threat to Forbes that the party would be ungovernable if she challenged and won. Hence her decision to back "Honest" John.

    However, when Swinney steps down, probably after the next Holyrood election, Stephen Flynn (current SNP Westminster leader) will be levered in as the next Continuity/Unity leader. Forbes will over time be marginalised,although she may prove useful during the next few months for the election campaign..

    QED.

    I think you're overdoing the Kremlinology of it all.

    Yousaf made a monumental f***-up for the ages by publicly dumping the Greens without, apparently, giving the merest thought to basic maths. Tories would never do a deal, Labour and Lib Dems would love early elections, the Greens were humiliated and angry at Yousaf personally, and Alba were never going to offer a deal that Yousaf could possibly sell to his own party.

    When Yousaf inevitably fell on his sword, it was pretty widely acknowledged that Swinney was realistically more able to steady the ship and smooth things over sufficiently with the Greens and there was a strong desire across the SNP to get a quick outcome in a time of obvious turmoil (see also Sunak and Michael Howard). Forbes saw no benefit in damaging her reputation further by forcing a contest she was doomed to lose and being blamed for stringing it out. Time is on her side - Swinney is a quarter of a century her senior, and there is a fair chance he won't be around after the next Scottish elections., and that the SNP will be in opposition
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    I do post all my workings out and thought process though, which is based on research - possible clashes with other things etc.

    I posted my General Election forecast weeks ago, and this side of the locals it looks an even better forecast than before IMO, so I have not tweaked it one jot.

    CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3

    CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4

    For those PV numbers to produce those seats - a Labour landslide win - it does all hinge on the LLG working out very efficiently. That is certainly an assumption at the heart of my forecast, but certainly one I am confident of, based on not merely these locals, but all the locals this parliament shows an LLG working effectively targetting Tory candidates.
    I certainly do not knock your predicting but you've made so many wrong predictions now you'll be right eventually just by virtue of time.

    When/if it's not July, you'll predict October and it will continue.

    If it is July, you've got it right entirely by accident after wrongly predicting May.

    To be fair, I also thought May. But I think I will be wrong about July and am not making any more predictions.
    There's a broken clock a block from my humble abode, that still gives correct time . . . twice a day!

    BTW (also FYI) said clock is located in front of local Mason Hall. Conspiracy? Kismet? Karma? Korma?
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
    2015 was very poor - as of course was 1970 further back. Neither 1974 elections were good re-polling.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382

    Rishi Sunak's approval rating is -23%.

    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (5 May):

    Disapprove: 51% (+5)
    Approve: 28% (+2)
    Net: -23% (-3)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787520318820532730

    Broken, sleazy Net on the slide.
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,431

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    Chatty and contemplative talk between Rory Stewart and Alex O'Connor (Within Reason podcasts). Not for the content (make your own mind up) but on production values: it's very well filmed, staged (is that a green-screen background?), and the sound quality is wonderful. Restful and chatty.

    "There is No Existential Threat to Britain - Rory Stewart", Alex O'Connor, YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXGzxJoLhwg , 71 mins.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Israel haven't however.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    edited May 6

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    edited May 6

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
    2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leads
    2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
    92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face
    2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.
    A relatively unremarked feature of the Blair years was that the polls pretty consistently overestimated the Labour vote just prior to polling day. Ultimately, it didn't matter because he won reasonably comfortably each time - but never as well as the final polls suggested he may. That hasn't been the case since - they were broadly right on Labour share in 2010, 2015 and 2019 - and in 2017 significantly underestimated Corbyn.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Israel haven't however.
    They must. They are clearly nuts to total Rafah and this would ensure innocent lives are saved.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    Yes his Twitter makes it clear who he most despises. It's not Tories.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Israel haven't however.
    They must. They are clearly nuts to total Rafah and this would ensure innocent lives are saved.
    Hamas surrendering and disarming would save Rafah.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Israel haven't however.
    They must. They are clearly nuts to total Rafah and this would ensure innocent lives are saved.
    But they won't. Hamas know that. This is all for show.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    edited May 6

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas. What do you know that Joe Biden does not?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951

    Westminster VI (5 May):

    Labour 44% (-1)
    Conservative 21% (-1)
    Reform UK 15% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    Edit - Reform 15% when they got 16.9% in a leave constituency in perfect conditions. My arse.

    Redfield was initially one of the kinder pollsters to the Tories.
    I've been trying to find this out for a while - what is the biggest miss, ever in modern UK polling? Say, since 1980
    1992 GE presumably?
    2001 was very poor with vastly overstated Labour leads
    2017 a couple got it badly badly wrong as we know but some saw the light
    92 yes overall the biggest miss I reckon as not just % but result was arse about face
    2005 was a funny one. Michael Howard was Tory leader and, for a while, it looked as if the Tories could suffer a meltdown, with the LibDems "decapitating" a swathe of Tory frontbenchers. In the end, the Tories made a modest recovery and Blair's majority was cut. Apparently TB was a bit disappointed - expected another three figure majority. Whether this was played out in the opinion polls I don't recall.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2005_United_Kingdom_general_election#2005

    The lead in the polls bounced around 5-9% (with a couple of outliers) - the margin in the end was 2%.

    So a smallish miss.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.
    If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.

    If they do, then its not.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,088

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 6
    Israel now stating Hamas have accepted a softened proposal that Israel cannot accept.
    All a macabre dance
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    edited May 6

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.
    If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.

    If they do, then its not.
    It is depressing to see you fall this way Bart. Basically everyone here except you now accepts Israel needs to stop.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.
    If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.

    If they do, then its not.
    It is depressing to see you fall this way Bart. Basically everyone here except you now accepts Israel needs to stop.
    Israel should stop when Hamas are destroyed, I've said that since the start.

    They've not been destroyed yet.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Israel now stating Hamas have accepted a softened proposal that Israel cannot accept.
    All a macabre dance

    Israel are the problem here, as the US has said.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    He was however quite clever.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    Israel should stop when Hamas are destroyed, I've said that since the start.

    They've not been destroyed yet.

    Israel have gone a very odd way about "destroying" them - and they've conclusively failed to do so. They aren't going to do so, their actions are going to create a whole new generation of them.

    Idiotic actions in recent weeks. They have thrown away all the support they had from me and others. You stand alone.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 6
    The IRM say they have accepted the Qatari and Egyptian ceasefire proposal.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/6/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-pounds-rafah-as-truce-talks-stall

    Meanwhile the Israeli terror machine has ordered everyone in eastern Rafah (about 100000 people, mostly civilians and recent refugees) to leave - to the northwest towards the sea.


  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    IanB2 said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    He was however quite clever.
    As I said, he does sound a lot like me.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    What if they were hiding inside what you're always talking out of?
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    The UK Government's net competency rating is -39%.

    Highest % to say 'incompetent' with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Government Competency Rating (5 May):

    Incompetent: 55% (+7)
    Competent: 16% (-4)
    Net: -39% (-11)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787528199506628879
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824
    EPG said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.
    Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.

    Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    edited May 6

    IanB2 said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    He was however quite clever.
    As I said, he does sound a lot like me.
    He was also quite self aware.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    He was however quite clever.
    As I said, he does sound a lot like me.
    He was also quite self aware.
    This just confirms, that he is me.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    EPG said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.
    Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.

    Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
    That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.
    Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.

    Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
    That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.
    Bart sees Palestinians as sub-human. He is totally obsessed with destroying Palestine and the Palestinian people. He is a war monger in leagues with the worst of the Israelis.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    If Israel rejects the ceasefire deal then there will be uproar.

    The west has had enough of Netenyahu and his cabinet of war criminals .
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    Perhaps Bart should question why so many here who were initially on Israel's side have decided enough is enough.

    Feel free to disregard me Bart but it is everyone except you.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    He was however quite clever.
    As I said, he does sound a lot like me.
    He was also quite self aware.
    Boom
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    He was however quite clever.
    As I said, he does sound a lot like me.
    He was also quite self aware.
    Boom
    I do try, or do I?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He was quite the shit, it must be said.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    Sean_F said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He was quite the shit, it must be said.
    Thank you.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,088

    EPG said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.
    Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.

    Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
    The IDF has estimated the civilian share of the death toll at around two-thirds.

    Denialism will put you beyond the pale. There is time to step back.
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    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    Highest % to predict a Labour Gov't.

    If a General Election in the UK were to take place, what do British voters think would be the most likely outcome of this election? (5 May)

    Labour Gov't: 63% (+5)
    Conservative Gov't: 21% (-2)

    Changes +/- 28 April

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1787530330997502078

    Rishi seems to have failed to understand the public. Surprising.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    Israel reject the ceasefire deal and aren’t finished yet with the massacre of the Palestinians.

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    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    nico679 said:

    If Israel rejects the ceasefire deal then there will be uproar.

    The west has had enough of Netenyahu and his cabinet of war criminals .

    Do you think Bibi cares about the west ?

    What Israeli people think will be all that matters.

    As for war crimes, no Israeli will ever be held to account. It is white western justice. A few African dictators and east Europeans and that’s it.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824
    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replaced
    by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.

    Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
    The only way to end the recruiting sergeant is to have full employment and economic development for Palestinians, where t hey have economic opportunities and no reason to fight.

    That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.

    Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.

    A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.

    We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471

    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.
    Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.

    Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
    That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.
    Bart sees Palestinians as sub-human. He is totally obsessed with destroying Palestine and the Palestinian people. He is a war monger in leagues with the worst of the Israelis.
    He used to be quite into the Russia ukraine conflict. Even stating what his terms for the conflict to end would be. I don’t see him mention it now.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,472
    Sky - Israel rejects the ceasefire proposal
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824
    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    If your fire is mostly killing civilians rather than fighters, and you do it day after day, then it is hardly "crossfire", rather a settled strategy that a mostly-civilian death toll is worth it.
    Except there's no independent figures that say that civilians are most of the death toll, Hamas figures can't be trusted.

    Plus its Hamas's responsibility that they're hiding behind human shields.
    That utterly incomprehensible and cruel comment has made me so angry I need to take a walk before I say something I might regret.
    Bart sees Palestinians as sub-human. He is totally obsessed with destroying Palestine and the Palestinian people. He is a war monger in leagues with the worst of the Israelis.
    He used to be quite into the Russia ukraine conflict. Even stating what his terms for the conflict to end would be. I don’t see him mention it now.
    Every square inch of Ukraine should be liberated. I mentioned Ukraine earlier in this conversation.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    Sky - Israel rejects the ceasefire proposal

    Good.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replaced
    by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.

    Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
    The only way to end the recruiting sergeant is to have full employment and economic development for Palestinians, where t hey have economic opportunities and no reason to fight.

    That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.

    Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.

    A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.

    We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replaced
    by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.

    Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
    The only way to end the recruiting sergeant is to have full employment and economic development for Palestinians, where t hey have economic opportunities and no reason to fight.

    That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.

    Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.

    A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.

    We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.
    Unfortunately you cannot destroy Hamas any more than you can destroy Irish Republicanism. It cannot be beaten. Fenian dead and all that. Israel has simply bolstered support for the idea of Hamas. Well, more accurately Netanyahu has by selling his country’s future for the sake of his own political survival.
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