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The second coming of John Swinney – politicalbetting.com

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  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.
    If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.

    If they do, then its not.
    It is depressing to see you fall this way Bart. Basically everyone here except you now accepts Israel needs to stop.
    Israel should stop when Hamas are destroyed, I've said that since the start.

    They've not been destroyed yet.
    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.
    Yes, just as a cuddlier and fluffier version of German nationalism emerged from the ashes of the Nazis.

    Destroy Hamas, then have a Marshall plan to develop Palestine afterwards. Carrot and stick.

    Ceasefire achieves nothing.
    You are a maniac.
    No, I'm not, Hamas are the maniacs, they are the ones who caused this conflict, they are the ones who killed thousands in October and they need to be destroyed.

    Causing all this harm to Palestinians without destroying Hamas is utterly pointless. Like going through chemotherapy but quitting halfway.
    Oh fuck off. That is the most offensive bloodthirsty thing you have ever polluted this board with. And that’s saying something. Grow a moral. Just one. I’m not asking miracles.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,366

    Causing all this harm to Palestinians without destroying Hamas is utterly pointless. Like going through chemotherapy but quitting halfway.

    You must think the US and the UK are maniacs then.
    Yes I do.

    I have said so repeatedly.

    They're pandering to people like you.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    The current Israel regime are just as untrustworthy as Hamas based on their actions. Not as bad in general though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457

    Tres said:

    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.

    This is the thing, Bart is not an unintelligent chap, he must know the results of the Israeli actions will be to create a generation of total nutjobs who won't even negotiate.
    Hamas have run Gaza for 18 years. They've already created a generation of total nutjobs - and some of them did October 7th.
    Hamas are negotiating right now.
    Note I said nothing about negotiation. But I do contend that Hamas are total nutjobs (as are some Israelis).
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    Causing all this harm to Palestinians without destroying Hamas is utterly pointless. Like going through chemotherapy but quitting halfway.

    You must think the US and the UK are maniacs then.
    Yes I do.

    I have said so repeatedly.

    They're pandering to people like you.
    Bart do you not realise it's only you on your own? They are pandering to literally everyone except you. Perhaps consider why this is? Could it be that you might be wrong?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    Tres said:

    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.

    This is the thing, Bart is not an unintelligent chap, he must know the results of the Israeli actions will be to create a generation of total nutjobs who won't even negotiate.
    Hamas have run Gaza for 18 years. They've already created a generation of total nutjobs - and some of them did October 7th.
    Hamas are negotiating right now.
    Note I said nothing about negotiation. But I do contend that Hamas are total nutjobs (as are some Israelis).
    I think they are total nutjobs too - but what will come next will be even worse.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    @malcolmg

    Yesterday you asked for a review of Springsteen at Cardiff as you are going to see him later this month.

    The short review would be 'Fecking brilliant!'

    It is admittedly my 8th time seeing him but after Hyde Park last year I had started to worry he may be looking towards the end of his touring career. He has openly said that this 2023/24 tour is on the theme of past, present and future triggered by the loss of his last bandmate from his first ever band in the 1960s. Hence his recent songs 'Last Man Standing' and 'I'll see you in my Dreams'. But whereas last year there was a sense of things coming to an end, this year he seems completely rejuvinated.

    The set list was far more variable than recently with a load more audience requests (via signs picked from the crowd) which is a trademark of his concerts and the whole thing was far more upbeat than last year. It was helped at Cardiff by the stadum roof being closed which made this by far the loudest Springsteen concert I have been to and by a crowd that belted out practically every song as if they wrote it themselves. He played non stop for 3 hours - the 'encores' being marked by the band coming to the front of the stage to take applause rather than actually leaving - and did 29 songs including The River which is my all time favourite.

    I envy the fact you are seeing him later this month and were it not for the fact I will be back offshore I would be scrambling for tickets for more of his UK shows right now. It is one of those experiences not to be missed.

    Thee are loads of videos of Youtube from last night and some of them are pretty decent quality. Hearing 60,000 people sing along to The River or Thunder Road is quite magical.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,515
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.
    If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.

    If they do, then its not.
    It is depressing to see you fall this way Bart. Basically everyone here except you now accepts Israel needs to stop.
    Israel should stop when Hamas are destroyed, I've said that since the start.

    They've not been destroyed yet.
    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.
    I mean it worked in Nazi Germany. And to an extent in Chechnya. So it isn’t impossible to defeat a terrorist insurgency. Not saying it will work here.
    After Nazi Germany there was still a Germany. But there won't be a Palestine the way Israel are going.
    I mean Palestine is already a failed state that has been abandoned by its Arab neighbours.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.
    If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.

    If they do, then its not.
    It is depressing to see you fall this way Bart. Basically everyone here except you now accepts Israel needs to stop.
    Israel should stop when Hamas are destroyed, I've said that since the start.

    They've not been destroyed yet.
    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.
    I mean it worked in Nazi Germany. And to an extent in Chechnya. So it isn’t impossible to defeat a terrorist insurgency. Not saying it will work here.
    After Nazi Germany there was still a Germany. But there won't be a Palestine the way Israel are going.
    That's absurd, they're not destroying the Palestinians. That'd take millions of casualties and its just not happening. Nor should it.

    I want a better future for Palestinians. A Marshall Plan post-Hamas gives them an opportunity. A ceasefire and leaving Hamas in charge achieves nothing.
    Wow! Is this a new kinder softer Bart, content with only killing tens of thousands of civilians rather than millions?

    You must be going soft.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    I’ve yet to be proved wrong.

    A politician throwing the future of his party into a roulette wheel, does not disprove my analysis

    So the May election happened and we all missed it?
    No. My argument is founded on picking 5 weeks to campaign where some good news will be coming in to help you, not bad news to undermine you. The only basis you have for saying I have been proved wrong so far, is fact Sunak decided differently on May 2nd.

    The May 2nd date became undermined by polling drift away from government, leaving a worse polling position, and it did make calling an election when there was much more time to play with, look too early. However, what now is too early, when difference between campaigning through June or campaigning through October is only 12 weeks - and I argue 12 weeks full of difficult news narrative for government?

    For about six months I’ve been arguing the Autumn can bring a worse result, because it can have a more challenging background to campaign against, with less improving news, less perception the plan is working. May and June, inflation will look very good, economic growth too. Maybe Rwanda flights will neutralise the fact boats keep coming in record numbers, the annual splurge tends to come from July.

    However from July onward what can we expect? More boats, and perhaps problems with Rwanda Scheme. A Covid report has been promised. So too higher energy costs and food prices to tick upwards the longer they leave election day. Another fiscal event might be tricky - rabbit from hat of tax cuts will be expected, but will OBR allow it? It hasn’t been explained how Defence Spending increase, Labour attacked for not committing to, is being paid for by Sunak, another fiscal event and they have to get that £70B commitment through the OBR.

    So which Election Day has better news narrative and government announcements in the run up to it, which will have the most damaging? That’s the reason I suggest 4th July rather than an October or later date. And this argument can still be right, even if Sunak decides otherwise. It’s a debating point, not just this evening, but next year - if leaving it longer comes to a worse return in MPs, than hitting the cash out button around now. Yes - it is actually a gamble, and the sense awful polling is even taking an analysis based decision out of Sunak’s control.

    The Fink who worked with John Major has often commented, waiting till the last minute generated a squatting narrative, which itself worked against historic swingback. With every week now passing, the opposition parties look stronger, the governing party looks helpless.

    The theory of election calling I have been making, has not been proved wrong at all. If not 4th July, it’s December - that is the most realistic last possible moment imo. And December won’t be analysis based decision making, but the absence of it, driven by how awful the polling is.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,453

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Donkeys said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    It's in their hands entirely to not bomb and destroy Rafah. You relish killing innocent people as the war-monger you are.
    They need to bomb and destroy Hamas.

    Hamas are in Rafah.

    I relish nothing, I'd rather Hamas surrender, but if they don't then they still need to be targeted wherever they are. There is no alternative to destroy Hamas other than target them wherever they are.
    You must accept that totalling Rafah will not destroy Hamas.
    If Hamas won't surrender then its a required action.

    If they do, then its not.
    Would any Palestinian resistance member be allowed to keep a handgun, Barty, or a pair of tough boots even?

    "Infrastructure of terror" is just a euphemism for things like roads, homes, hospitals, water supply, electricity mains, schools, churches, and mosques, as can be seen from the obscene destruction that Israel has already meted out in most of Gaza, as it treats practically the entire population as if they're its prisoners.

    You won't get your surrender. And you probably know this.
    The Nazis said they wouldn't surrender, eventually they did.
    Imperial Japan said they wouldn't surrender, eventually they did.
    The Tamil Tigers said they wouldn't surrender, eventually they did.

    A ceasefire now returning Hamas to running Gaza will just continue the circle of violence. Hamas surrendering will end it.
    We must keep fighting to end the cycle of violence?
    Yes.

    When one side surrenders, there's a window of opportunity to break the cycle.

    A Hamas-free Palestine can be developed economically and give peace a chance. A blockaded Hamas-led Palestine can not.
    Who's blockading?
    Egypt and Israel since Hamas took over.

    Quite rightly too, they have to.

    Neither were pre-Hamas. Post-Hamas they shouldn't either, but if there's a ceasefire then both will continue to do so and quite rightly too.
    Is Hamas also the justification for 20,000 or many more dead Palestinian civilians?
    "civilians"? How many of those 20,000 are men of fighting age?
    We’ll never know because the propaganda smokescreen is too great on all sides.
    It is a serious point on reporting though. 14/15 year olds have been involved in fighting on behalf of Hamas in the past.

    Yet Western media reports anyone under the age of 18 as “children” which is an emotive term
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457

    Tres said:

    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.

    This is the thing, Bart is not an unintelligent chap, he must know the results of the Israeli actions will be to create a generation of total nutjobs who won't even negotiate.
    Hamas have run Gaza for 18 years. They've already created a generation of total nutjobs - and some of them did October 7th.
    Hamas are negotiating right now.
    Note I said nothing about negotiation. But I do contend that Hamas are total nutjobs (as are some Israelis).
    I think they are total nutjobs too - but what will come next will be even worse.
    How can they be worse than October 7th, and the missiles they regularly fired into Israel? I mean, if they got nukes: sure. But aside from that, they are hideous creatures.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    Tres said:

    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.

    This is the thing, Bart is not an unintelligent chap, he must know the results of the Israeli actions will be to create a generation of total nutjobs who won't even negotiate.
    Hamas have run Gaza for 18 years. They've already created a generation of total nutjobs - and some of them did October 7th.
    Hamas are negotiating right now.
    Note I said nothing about negotiation. But I do contend that Hamas are total nutjobs (as are some Israelis).
    I think they are total nutjobs too - but what will come next will be even worse.
    How can they be worse than October 7th, and the missiles they regularly fired into Israel? I mean, if they got nukes: sure. But aside from that, they are hideous creatures.
    Because they won't come to the negotiating table to try and end it. They will do even more October 7th style attacks. It will be worse.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    FPT

    So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.

    Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.

    It's worth 500-1,000 extra votes, or not, in the key marginals.

    So a good ground game can save 20-30 seats, or not.
    With impact greater IF overall turnout drops.

    Rule of thumb amongst US political hacks, is that good field effort can boost your side by a couple of percentage points or therabouts. Which is (I think) basically what you're saying.

    Though keep in mind, that in same race two (or more) can play that game.

    In 2004 when John Kerry campaign beat the bushes (in one sense) turning out supporters, in Ohio and other battlegrounds, and met it's field targets . . . HOWEVER, the Cheney-Bush re-election campaign ALSO had a robust ground game . . . which put W & Dick over the top in the Buckeye State . . . and elsewhere.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    Tres said:

    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.

    This is the thing, Bart is not an unintelligent chap, he must know the results of the Israeli actions will be to create a generation of total nutjobs who won't even negotiate.
    Hamas have run Gaza for 18 years. They've already created a generation of total nutjobs - and some of them did October 7th.
    Hamas are negotiating right now.
    Note I said nothing about negotiation. But I do contend that Hamas are total nutjobs (as are some Israelis).
    It all gets a bit Alien v Predator at the extremes and, if like the Marines we intervened, both would have a go at us.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Of course if Bibi agrees the ceasefire, Ben Gvir etc will collapse his government
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,515
    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    If Israel stops and Hamas refuses to hand over the hostages, then what?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,515
    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    What utter one-sided drivel.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898

    An interesting, if somewhat lengthy, account by Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic of how the autocracies are working to undermine the democracies. It's depressing how the advent of the internet has been leveraged by bad actors.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/06/china-russia-republican-party-relations/678271/

    THE NEW PROPAGANDA WAR
    Autocrats in China, Russia, and elsewhere are now making common cause with MAGA Republicans to discredit liberalism and freedom around the world.

    I read tweets even on here that seem quite obviously part of Russian or other psyops operations - and not just ones shared by our whack-a-mole Moscow trolls. I think we all have to be a lot smarter about stuff like this.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    Does this rather sneering appproach make you feel big and clever?

    It’s snide, unpleasant, bullying and - worst of all - dull for everyone else
    Yes it does, I have a very small penis you see and I am compensating for that.
    Cannot be right - horses Rodger’s are massive. I watched a nature doc once and thought one of the horses had five legs…
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    If Israel stops and Hamas refuses to hand over the hostages, then what?
    Well they haven’t been handing over hostages with this strategy lately so maybe try something different, and frankly it wouldn’t be a bad thing if people start seeing Hamas for the shits they are.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,027
    edited May 6
    We’re on your side, really, Muslim voters, don’t abandon us part XXV

    From the new W Midlands Mayor.

    Lots of labour politicians tweeting very similar tonight.

    https://x.com/richparkerlab/status/1787523097119093042?s=61
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    Does this rather sneering appproach make you feel big and clever?

    It’s snide, unpleasant, bullying and - worst of all - dull for everyone else
    Yes it does, I have a very small penis you see and I am compensating for that.
    Cannot be right - horses Rodger’s are massive. I watched a nature doc once and thought one of the horses had five legs…
    I am only a partial horse, sadly I did not inherit the "good" parts :(
  • OllyOlly Posts: 42
    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    Some of the scenes from Gaza are shocking. If the russians had done that to a major city they would rightly be called out but Israel it seems gets a free pass from The USA.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Of course if Bibi agrees the ceasefire, Ben Gvir etc will collapse his government

    And? Doing the right thing isn’t a consequence free option. If a politician is prioritising political survival whatever the cost that politician needs to be removed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,515
    edited May 6
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    If Israel stops and Hamas refuses to hand over the hostages, then what?
    Well they haven’t been handing over hostages with this strategy lately so maybe try something different, and frankly it wouldn’t be a bad thing if people start seeing Hamas for the shits they are.
    But Israel is a democracy and unfortunately in a democracy doing “nothing” and waiting and see doesn’t go down well with electorates.

    People forget this. It’s easy to criticise from a detached house in Surrey.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,058

    Just an FYI, MoonRabbit has predicted an election for the 4th July, to be called 13th May, so might be wise to lay a July election on historical trends.

    Does this rather sneering appproach make you feel big and clever?

    It’s snide, unpleasant, bullying and - worst of all - dull for everyone else
    Yes it does, I have a very small penis you see and I am compensating for that.
    Cannot be right - horses Rodger’s are massive. I watched a nature doc once and thought one of the horses had five legs…
    I am only a partial horse, sadly I did not inherit the "good" parts :(
    Quality, not quantity, Horse!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,058
    edited May 6
    Olly said:

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    Some of the scenes from Gaza are shocking. If the russians had done that to a major city they would rightly be called out but Israel it seems gets a free pass from The USA.
    It would be good if Biden could grow a set of cojones and tell Israel that there are limits to American support.
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    Israel also need to cancel their plans to kill innocent people.

    Israel need to accept this proposal to protect innocent lives. Israel has completely lost the plot and now needs to be challenged.
    That's not in their hands, is it?

    Innocent people get caught in the crossfire during war.

    If Hamas surrender then the innocents would be saved, if they don't, then that's Hamas's choice.
    Israel also needs to disarm its Einzatsgruppen forces.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898
    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    Also, who is paying for this Marshall Plan? Would it be too outrageous to suggest that the people currently reducing Gaza to blood-soaked rubble should be the ones paying to rebuild it, on the "you broke it, you pay for it" principle? I'm not sure how much money we have to contribute to this effort, seeing as we can't afford to fix our own potholes or adequately fund our schools, apparently. Supporting Israel to destroy things and then paying to fix them doesn't seem an especially smart foreign policy.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    If Israel stops and Hamas refuses to hand over the hostages, then what?
    Well they haven’t been handing over hostages with this strategy lately so maybe try something different, and frankly it wouldn’t be a bad thing if people start seeing Hamas for the shits they are.
    But Israel is a democracy and unfortunately in a democracy doing “nothing” and waiting and see doesn’t go down well with electorates.

    People forget this. It’s easy to criticise from a detached house in Surrey.
    I haven’t had to criticise anything from a detached house in Surrey since a blowjob I got at a post A-level party but it is easy to criticise from afar just as the US have criticised the Israeli actions, the least likely country to criticise them. I’m hugely pro-Israel but they are being stupid now. They have lost the propaganda war and they are probably killing one Hamas fighter for every three they are creating. I love that Israel has historically been smart and ruthless, only used the big stick when attacked by another country and otherwise been surgical. They have made their point, done the damage, now get back to being smart.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ToryJim said:

    Of course if Bibi agrees the ceasefire, Ben Gvir etc will collapse his government

    And? Doing the right thing isn’t a consequence free option. If a politician is prioritising political survival whatever the cost that politician needs to be removed.
    He's a politician, they exist to prioritise power and survival
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    Also, who is paying for this Marshall Plan? Would it be too outrageous to suggest that the people currently reducing Gaza to blood-soaked rubble should be the ones paying to rebuild it, on the "you broke it, you pay for it" principle? I'm not sure how much money we have to contribute to this effort, seeing as we can't afford to fix our own potholes or adequately fund our schools, apparently. Supporting Israel to destroy things and then paying to fix them doesn't seem an especially smart foreign policy.
    I believe there are a few Muslim countries that have a bit of cash lying around to the point they can invest billions in football clubs. Let’s start there and see who else can top up the account.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457

    Tres said:

    and I guess you imagine a cuddlier and fluffier version of Palestinian nationalism is going to emerge from the ashes of Hamas.

    This is the thing, Bart is not an unintelligent chap, he must know the results of the Israeli actions will be to create a generation of total nutjobs who won't even negotiate.
    Hamas have run Gaza for 18 years. They've already created a generation of total nutjobs - and some of them did October 7th.
    Hamas are negotiating right now.
    Note I said nothing about negotiation. But I do contend that Hamas are total nutjobs (as are some Israelis).
    I think they are total nutjobs too - but what will come next will be even worse.
    How can they be worse than October 7th, and the missiles they regularly fired into Israel? I mean, if they got nukes: sure. But aside from that, they are hideous creatures.
    Because they won't come to the negotiating table to try and end it. They will do even more October 7th style attacks. It will be worse.
    They will do whatever their masters command them to do.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,515
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    If Israel stops and Hamas refuses to hand over the hostages, then what?
    Well they haven’t been handing over hostages with this strategy lately so maybe try something different, and frankly it wouldn’t be a bad thing if people start seeing Hamas for the shits they are.
    But Israel is a democracy and unfortunately in a democracy doing “nothing” and waiting and see doesn’t go down well with electorates.

    People forget this. It’s easy to criticise from a detached house in Surrey.
    I haven’t had to criticise anything from a detached house in Surrey since a blowjob I got at a post A-level party but it is easy to criticise from afar just as the US have criticised the Israeli actions, the least likely country to criticise them. I’m hugely pro-Israel but they are being stupid now. They have lost the propaganda war and they are probably killing one Hamas fighter for every three they are creating. I love that Israel has historically been smart and ruthless, only used the big stick when attacked by another country and otherwise been surgical. They have made their point, done the damage, now get back to being smart.
    I appreciate what you’re saying and I agree with you, but at the end of the day the only thing Israel can do to guarantee the hostages are returned, dead or alive, is to go in and get them. Anything else is just “well Hamas may release them, they may not. Sorry electorate”.

    It’s an impossible choice.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sone rumours (and only rumours as yet ) on Twitter that the tanks are rolling to the east of Rafah........
    Looks like we might be at crunch time if this is verified
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    If Israel stops and Hamas refuses to hand over the hostages, then what?
    Well they haven’t been handing over hostages with this strategy lately so maybe try something different, and frankly it wouldn’t be a bad thing if people start seeing Hamas for the shits they are.
    But Israel is a democracy and unfortunately in a democracy doing “nothing” and waiting and see doesn’t go down well with electorates.

    People forget this. It’s easy to criticise from a detached house in Surrey.
    I haven’t had to criticise anything from a detached house in Surrey since a blowjob I got at a post A-level party but it is easy to criticise from afar just as the US have criticised the Israeli actions, the least likely country to criticise them. I’m hugely pro-Israel but they are being stupid now. They have lost the propaganda war and they are probably killing one Hamas fighter for every three they are creating. I love that Israel has historically been smart and ruthless, only used the big stick when attacked by another country and otherwise been surgical. They have made their point, done the damage, now get back to being smart.
    I appreciate what you’re saying and I agree with you, but at the end of the day the only thing Israel can do to guarantee the hostages are returned, dead or alive, is to go in and get them. Anything else is just “well Hamas may release them, they may not. Sorry electorate”.

    It’s an impossible choice.
    I would love that but it’s not the Iranian embassy siege where everyone is in a contained area and so it’s never going to be relatively neat and tidy. It would of course help if Qatar and Saudi etc made a joint statement they want the hostages released but weirdly that doesn’t seem to happen. Or I missed it.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1756273635331837982

    Humza Yousaf goes leg trolley racing in the Scottish Parliament (2021)
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    If Israel rejects the ceasefire deal then there will be uproar.

    The west has had enough of Netenyahu and his cabinet of war criminals .

    Do you think Bibi cares about the west ?

    What Israeli people think will be all that matters.

    As for war crimes, no Israeli will ever be held to account. It is white western justice. A few African dictators and east Europeans and that’s it.
    Indeed it is pure humbug and hypocrisy. Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders should be put on trial along with Hamas leaders. Of course, the same applies to Blair and Bush for their crimes committed in 2003 when Iraq was invaded.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,027
    legatus said:

    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    If Israel rejects the ceasefire deal then there will be uproar.

    The west has had enough of Netenyahu and his cabinet of war criminals .

    Do you think Bibi cares about the west ?

    What Israeli people think will be all that matters.

    As for war crimes, no Israeli will ever be held to account. It is white western justice. A few African dictators and east Europeans and that’s it.
    Indeed it is pure humbug and hypocrisy. Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders should be put on trial along with Hamas leaders. Of course, the same applies to Blair and Bush for their crimes committed in 2003 when Iraq was invaded.
    It’s only African dictators/warlords and East Europeans who get put on trial at that farcical war crimes tribunal. You will never see a US or a British service person on trial. Ever. It’s white western justice.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    Good, but tough, day today. I've walked 47km, with loads of climbing. I felt bold after 20km by 11:30am so booked a place 30km further on

    After 10km the route split, and the alternative route, described as the traditional route, was a few kilometres less, and more importantly offered shade as the sun had just quite fiercely showed itself after a cool, cloudy morning

    So I set off on Saint Jacob's way, still officially part of the Camino de Santiago, but with fewer stops in towns than the new route. I was already stocked up with snacks and beer, so went for it

    I took a wrong turn, and ended up climbing a very steep hill in blazing sunshine, but the next 10km were easy walking through woodland hilltop paths

    Then as I came out of the woods I stumbled upon some noom

    I found the ruins of an ancient, nearly 1,000 year old, monastery at a place called Zarapuz

    I don't know if the noom would be available to lazy, impatient travel journalists, or anyone who stops there without the effort, but I certainly felt it

    I sat on the ledge of the opening in the front wall for a good fifteen minutes (with a beer break of course!)

    It's a place where pilgrims stopped, on the traditional route, for hundreds of years before it fell to ruin, and I was there totally alone. I didn't see another soul within two or three miles either side

    https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zarapuz




    I am in awe of you doing this. Your memories of this weekend (and the rest of your endeavours) will be lifelong and uplifting compared to my drunken shenanigans desperately trying to forget my shameful exploits!

    Keep on keeping on.
  • OllyOlly Posts: 42
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    If the IDF go into Rafah they’ll then find another excuse to continue the war . Total victory means what ! Much of the leadership is in other countries .

    Hamas can end the war anytime by surrendering unconditionally.
    Then the expulsions from Gaza begin, like 1947, and whole sorry cycle begins again. Israel needs to talk to Hamas like we talked to the IRA. Insisting they surrender first didn’t work. Israel is not the honest actor you make it out to be.
    No, Hamas needs to surrender unconditionally and someone else needs to be talked to.

    Negotiating with Hamas is like negotiating with Putin.
    We probably both want the same outcome of a Hamas free Palestine, a safe Israel and a Palestinian society which is safe, productive and sees more value in living and flourishing rather than the eternal cycle of death and misery but you do have quite an absolutist view of it. I guess from your absolutist, almost clinical comments here about everything from hosebuilding, development whatevs but there is a bit of a lack of nuance.

    Hamas will not surrender, they cannot surrender because they aren’t an entity but a collective of people who hate Israel, want a Palestinian state, people who have nothing else to live for. They are almost like the Colombian cartel soldiers where some believe and some just have to follow it as a way of life.

    You are correct they need a Marshall plan simalcrum to make life worth living but Israel has done the damage now, a lot of Palestinians will be split between “we hate Israel more let’s keep killing them” and “ please just fuck off hamas”.

    There is no real benefit to Israel of continuing this course of action but they need to withdraw and spend the next few years being smart and using jam not vinegar and taking out Hamas people in a targeted way.

    I am absolutely in the camp that “it’s Hamas’ fault this has happened” due to what they did in October but Israel, well Bibi and his extreme crew are going too far. Also Hamas need to hand over the hostages immediately because whilst they have them they are people who can’t be expected to benefit from fair fighting.
    If Israel stops and Hamas refuses to hand over the hostages, then what?
    Well they haven’t been handing over hostages with this strategy lately so maybe try something different, and frankly it wouldn’t be a bad thing if people start seeing Hamas for the shits they are.
    But Israel is a democracy and unfortunately in a democracy doing “nothing” and waiting and see doesn’t go down well with electorates.

    People forget this. It’s easy to criticise from a detached house in Surrey.
    I haven’t had to criticise anything from a detached house in Surrey since a blowjob I got at a post A-level party but it is easy to criticise from afar just as the US have criticised the Israeli actions, the least likely country to criticise them. I’m hugely pro-Israel but they are being stupid now. They have lost the propaganda war and they are probably killing one Hamas fighter for every three they are creating. I love that Israel has historically been smart and ruthless, only used the big stick when attacked by another country and otherwise been surgical. They have made their point, done the damage, now get back to being smart.
    Of course the advent of apps like tiktok has hugely helped in revealing Israeli war crimes. Previously they could rely on a friendly western media to cover up for them.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 6

    Good, but tough, day today. I've walked 47km, with loads of climbing. I felt bold after 20km by 11:30am so booked a place 30km further on

    After 10km the route split, and the alternative route, described as the traditional route, was a few kilometres less, and more importantly offered shade as the sun had just quite fiercely showed itself after a cool, cloudy morning

    So I set off on Saint Jacob's way, still officially part of the Camino de Santiago, but with fewer stops in towns than the new route. I was already stocked up with snacks and beer, so went for it

    I took a wrong turn, and ended up climbing a very steep hill in blazing sunshine, but the next 10km were easy walking through woodland hilltop paths

    Then as I came out of the woods I stumbled upon some noom

    I found the ruins of an ancient, nearly 1,000 year old, monastery at a place called Zarapuz

    I don't know if the noom would be available to lazy, impatient travel journalists, or anyone who stops there without the effort, but I certainly felt it

    I sat on the ledge of the opening in the front wall for a good fifteen minutes (with a beer break of course!)

    It's a place where pilgrims stopped, on the traditional route, for hundreds of years before it fell to ruin, and I was there totally alone. I didn't see another soul within two or three miles either side

    https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zarapuz




    But maybe their were plenty of souls hanging-hovering about the place? Nostalgia tourists!

    Re: grand place name "Zarapuz" my first fool thought was (and still is) what a great name for a something-or-other in a Mel Brooks movie.

    "Space Balls II - Quest for Zarapuz I"

    ADDENDUM - Have seen enough "Time Team" episodes to know, that that wall looks promising.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    If the polling is correct and Labour win most Scottish Westminster seats for the first time since 2010 and Labour win most seats at Holyrood in 2026 then that would see the SNP heading for Opposition after Swinney's stop gap leadership and Sarwar next FM. That would also kill off indyref2 and independence talk for a generation.

    If the Tories gain seats in Scotland as projected at the general election that would be another general election where the Tories or Labour made gains in Scotland while losing seats in England or losses in Scotland while making gains in England. As happened in 2019, 2017, 2015 to the Conservatives and 2010 to Labour
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787560102645338379?s=19

    Israel reject it, carrying on In Rafah. Fuck etc
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    Sone rumours (and only rumours as yet ) on Twitter that the tanks are rolling to the east of Rafah........
    Looks like we might be at crunch time if this is verified

    Popcorn time...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    Lol, strong ‘some of my best dance moves have been gay’ vibes from the silly old twat. Indicates that even wallowing about in his massive ego he realises the unnatural stuff was a misstep.

    https://x.com/stuzi_pants/status/1787551057809170503?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    HYUFD said:

    If the polling is correct and Labour win most Scottish Westminster seats for the first time since 2010 and Labour win most seats at Holyrood in 2026 then that would see the SNP heading for Opposition after Swinney's stop gap leadership and Sarwar next FM. That would also kill off indyref2 and independence talk for a generation.

    If the Tories gain seats in Scotland as projected at the general election that would be another general election where the Tories or Labour made gains in Scotland while losing seats in England or losses in Scotland while making gains in England. As happened in 2019, 2017, 2015 to the Conservatives and 2010 to Labour

    And in 1979 where LAB made a little bit of progress in Scotland while going backwards in England. And 1992 likewise but for CON!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    IDF confirm commencement of ground operations in eastern Rafah
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    Israel are truly disgusting with this action. Just despicable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,145

    FPT

    So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.

    Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.

    It's worth 500-1,000 extra votes, or not, in the key marginals.

    So a good ground game can save 20-30 seats, or not.
    Unless your opponent does the same.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    edited May 6

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787560102645338379?s=19

    Israel reject it, carrying on In Rafah. Fuck etc

    I’ll bet they’re going to exhaust the possibility, until it’s no longer a possibility.


  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    BlancheLivermore, have you ever considered hiking the Appalachian Trail?

    Bit longer than the Camino, but doable in sections; hikers esp. those doing/attempting entire AT generally start in Georgia and work their way north toward Maine.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787560102645338379?s=19

    Israel reject it, carrying on In Rafah. Fuck etc

    I’ll bet they’re going to exhaust the possibility, until it’s no longer a possibility.


    'Working level negotiators'
    Send in the clowns
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    IDF confirm commencement of ground operations in eastern Rafah

    "Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!"
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    IDF confirm commencement of ground operations in eastern Rafah

    "Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!"
    Love the new profile pic
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.

    Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.

    It's worth 500-1,000 extra votes, or not, in the key marginals.

    So a good ground game can save 20-30 seats, or not.
    Unless your opponent does the same.
    It's still worth an extra 500-1000 votes.

    The only thing a constituency Conservative party can control is whether IT runs a good ground game. It can't control what its opponents do. So the choices are run a good ground game and poll an extra 500-1000 votes, or don't and don't.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    IDF confirm commencement of ground operations in eastern Rafah

    "Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!"
    Love the new profile pic
    I think another poster used to use Bin face. I think it was @RochdalePioneers
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    edited May 6

    IDF confirm commencement of ground operations in eastern Rafah

    "Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!"
    Love the new profile pic
    I think another poster used to use Bin face. I think it was @RochdalePioneers
    That was just a photo of Rochdale, it just looked like a bin.

    Edit to add, it looked like the place not him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    Er no. Tim was funny
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    Er no. Tim was funny
    Funniest guy ever to run an offy in Pool
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,942

    FPT

    So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.

    Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.

    With regard to the 2nd paragraph it is the only way the LDs win seats. The ground game is essential. If you want proof of that look at the Surrey Police Commissioner vote in Surrey broken down borough by borough. In Guildford, one of the very top LD targets for the GE there were no locals so no campaigning for locals. The Tories won the vote by 1000 in Guildford Borough, however in Woking and Mole Valley which had locals so where the LDs were campaigning hard they beat the Tory in the Police Commissioner election by a significant margin, yet these are lower targets than Guildford in the GE. Pretty conclusive evidence of the ground game working.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    Leon said:

    Er no. Tim was funny

    Three weeks.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457

    BlancheLivermore, have you ever considered hiking the Appalachian Trail?

    Bit longer than the Camino, but doable in sections; hikers esp. those doing/attempting entire AT generally start in Georgia and work their way north toward Maine.

    I'd be tempted to do it, except there's too many walks I haven't done in the UK yet!

    I once met a young lass in the South Downs who had just come back from doing the AT and Pacific Crest Trails in consecutive years, and was hoping to do the Continental Divide Trail the next year. I sometimes wonder whether she did it.

    Of course, none of those trails are nowhere near as long as walking the coast of Britain. I wonder if any of our most brilliant posters has ever done that? ;)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    boulay said:

    IDF confirm commencement of ground operations in eastern Rafah

    "Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!"
    Love the new profile pic
    I think another poster used to use Bin face. I think it was @RochdalePioneers
    That was just a photo of Rochdale, it just looked like a bin.

    Edit to add, it looked like the place not him.
    I invented a device to remind me what day is bin day.

    I call it the Bindicator.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,038
    After the Appalachian Trail, BlancheLivermore might want to do the Pacific Crest Trail:
    "The Pacific Crest Trail is 2,653 mi (4,270 km) long[1] and ranges in elevation from roughly 110 feet (34 m)[7] above sea level near the Bridge of the Gods on the Oregon–Washington border to 13,153 feet (4,009 m)[3] at Forester Pass in the Sierra Nevada. The route passes through 25 national forests and 7 national parks.[10] Its midpoint is near Chester, California (near Mt. Lassen), where the Sierra and Cascade mountain ranges meet.[11] The overall elevation gain for the Pacific Crest Trail is approximately 489,000 ft (149,000 m)."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Crest_Trail

    Or the Continental Divide Trail: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_Divide_Trail
    (When it is complete.)

    I've done a few pieces of the Pacific Crest Trail and enjoyed the hikes, greatly. On one, I woke up to a buzzing around our tent, and realized that a hummingbird thought it had struck it rich. On another, we looked down and saw a herd of elk -- which were impressive, even at a distance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elk
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    boulay said:

    IDF confirm commencement of ground operations in eastern Rafah

    "Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!"
    Love the new profile pic
    I think another poster used to use Bin face. I think it was @RochdalePioneers
    That was just a photo of Rochdale, it just looked like a bin.

    Edit to add, it looked like the place not him.
    Rochdale town hall is a very impressive building. Parts of the town centre where river has been uncovered are noteworthy, too.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    kjh said:

    FPT

    So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.

    Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.

    With regard to the 2nd paragraph it is the only way the LDs win seats. The ground game is essential. If you want proof of that look at the Surrey Police Commissioner vote in Surrey broken down borough by borough. In Guildford, one of the very top LD targets for the GE there were no locals so no campaigning for locals. The Tories won the vote by 1000 in Guildford Borough, however in Woking and Mole Valley which had locals so where the LDs were campaigning hard they beat the Tory in the Police Commissioner election by a significant margin, yet these are lower targets than Guildford in the GE. Pretty conclusive evidence of the ground game working.
    It's more important for the Lib Dems than the Tories, though, as your example also sort of illustrates. Presumably they weren't campaigning very much in Guildford either, but their vote showed up anyway. Conservatives are the governing party and hold the seats we're talking about, so don't need to remind people they exist and are credible in the area.

    I don't agree with Sandy in that I think a good ground game is still worth a fair bit for the Conservatives. But it is less important than for smaller parties.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
    Before he was backed by the Israeli lobbyist donors and before he coincidentally changed his name by deed poll to Tel Aviv Keith
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
    Before he was backed by the Israeli lobbyist donors and before he coincidentally changed his name by deed poll to Tel Aviv Keith
    He's been on a journey has our Keir
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    edited May 6

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
    Before he was backed by the Israeli lobbyist donors and before he coincidentally changed his name by deed poll to Tel Aviv Keith
    Well we all do things we regret.

    Like not pulling out.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
    Before he was backed by the Israeli lobbyist donors and before he coincidentally changed his name by deed poll to Tel Aviv Keith
    He's been on a journey has our Keir
    You can keep him
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    BlancheLivermore, have you ever considered hiking the Appalachian Trail?

    Bit longer than the Camino, but doable in sections; hikers esp. those doing/attempting entire AT generally start in Georgia and work their way north toward Maine.

    I don’t think you quite appreciate how much Europeans underestimate the sheer size of the USA. The Appalachian trail is roughly 2,200 miles. Dunnet Head (the northernmost part of mainland Scotland) to Lizard Point (the most southerly point of England) only 600. So walking the whole trail is the equivalent of walking up and down this whole damn island nearly 4 times! How do you find the time, even in a lifetime?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I saw recently that nearly all of the Man Utd squad was up for sale. Presumably the defence has already been sold.

    Palace are just walking through them at will.
    After all the years of misery since SAF this has probably been the worst.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
    Before he was backed by the Israeli lobbyist donors and before he coincidentally changed his name by deed poll to Tel Aviv Keith
    Do you not think that just maybe, maybe, he understands that geopolitics isn’t simple student politics bollocks and, whilst I am looking forward to a continuation of the glorious reign of Rishi, he will be better off being a PM by being measured and balanced and not a slave to small protest groups and it’s nothing to do with donors.

    I would love some scandal where the Jewish Las Vegas Mafia turn out to be financing him but they own the press so we will never find out.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,980
    DougSeal said:

    BlancheLivermore, have you ever considered hiking the Appalachian Trail?

    Bit longer than the Camino, but doable in sections; hikers esp. those doing/attempting entire AT generally start in Georgia and work their way north toward Maine.

    I don’t think you quite appreciate how much Europeans underestimate the sheer size of the USA. The Appalachian trail is roughly 2,200 miles. Dunnet Head (the northernmost part of mainland Scotland) to Lizard Point (the most southerly point of England) only 600. So walking the whole trail is the equivalent of walking up and down this whole damn island nearly 4 times! How do you find the time, even in a lifetime?
    Only about 20 weeks of holiday!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    Is https://twitter.com/ExStrategist this chap actually an ex-strategist? Does anyone know them?

    That's Tim, formerly of this parish.

    To be honest for ages I thought you were him reincarnated, very similar vibes.

    Hardcore lefty, he hated George Osborne and named his Twitter after him, mocked Osborne as a strategist regularly.
    Tim wasn’t/isn’t a hardcore lefty, he was the quintessential Blairite centrist dad; he probably hates Corbynites more than Osborne et al. Gave PB Tories and the Herd a severe reaming on a regular basis though so a lot on the credit side in the ledger.
    He does sound a lot like me to be fair, or perhaps I sound a lot like him?
    Er no. Tim was funny
    I don’t think Tim would have been ramping for Corbyn to be PM at GE19 either.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    I note with interest that the new new First Minister is making pronouncements about his new government's policy direction being different from the last one.

    Where's your mandate love?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Man Utd are awful .

    Atrocious defending and the manager really should walk .
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    edited May 6

    US election - NPR poll:

    Registered voters who definitely plan to vote:

    Biden 52%

    Trump 47%

    That's before Trump even spends a night in the cells...
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    I note with interest that the new new First Minister is making pronouncements about his new government's policy direction being different from the last one.

    Where's your mandate love?

    It was intriguing he called for Liz Truss to call an election but he does not have to. There's a word that comes to my mind for this, H something
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    edited May 6
    nico679 said:

    Man Utd are awful .

    Atrocious defending and the manager really should walk .

    But enough about Israel
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,390

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
    Before he was backed by the Israeli lobbyist donors and before he coincidentally changed his name by deed poll to Tel Aviv Keith
    He's been on a journey has our Keir
    He has indeed. Who knows where he will go next... :(
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614
    DavidL said:

    I saw recently that nearly all of the Man Utd squad was up for sale. Presumably the defence has already been sold.

    Palace are just walking through them at will.
    After all the years of misery since SAF this has probably been the worst.

    The club is rotten from the top down and Ratcliffe should sack ETH tonight

    It needs complete renewal from manager, coaching and physio staff, attitudes and stadium

    They will not qualify for Europe and next is Arsenal and then City in the final

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,942
    edited May 6

    kjh said:

    FPT

    So the Tories plan to waste effort on trying to defend seats they are certain to lose, while ignoring those where they have a chance of holding. Excellent.

    Mind, I always maintain that the 'ground game' is a total waste of time and energy when it comes to general elections. So it matters not.

    With regard to the 2nd paragraph it is the only way the LDs win seats. The ground game is essential. If you want proof of that look at the Surrey Police Commissioner vote in Surrey broken down borough by borough. In Guildford, one of the very top LD targets for the GE there were no locals so no campaigning for locals. The Tories won the vote by 1000 in Guildford Borough, however in Woking and Mole Valley which had locals so where the LDs were campaigning hard they beat the Tory in the Police Commissioner election by a significant margin, yet these are lower targets than Guildford in the GE. Pretty conclusive evidence of the ground game working.
    It's more important for the Lib Dems than the Tories, though, as your example also sort of illustrates. Presumably they weren't campaigning very much in Guildford either, but their vote showed up anyway. Conservatives are the governing party and hold the seats we're talking about, so don't need to remind people they exist and are credible in the area.

    I don't agree with Sandy in that I think a good ground game is still worth a fair bit for the Conservatives. But it is less important than for smaller parties.
    Yes I agree. It is bread and butter for the LDs. Less so for the Tories. In fact there is daily campaigning in Guildford by the LDs because it is a target, but not at the level of Woking and Mole Valley during the last month of locals campaigning and they moved to Woking for the end of the locals and of course didn't have posters. I didn't see Woking, but Mole Valley was a sea of Yellow. Not a single Blue poster spotted. The Tories lost their 4 last seats in Woking and Labour lost 1 taking them down to 1. Mole Valley only had 4 Tories left. Only 1 was up for election and lost.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    viewcode said:

    MikeL said:

    Israel knows it can do what it wants - because the USA will support it WHATEVER it does.

    This did not start last October. It's being going on for 75 YEARS - expelling Palestinians, kicking them out of their land, killing them on and on and on and on.

    The Palestinians are in a hopeless position because nobody will do anything to stop it - so it will go on indefinitely. So of course Israel will obliterate Rafah.

    There's only one tiny thing that might be done that just could maybe have an effect. Target organisations where the US, UK etc don't have a veto. Get Israel suspended / expelled from the IOC, FIFA, UEFA, cultural and academic organisations etc. They won't like that. Just like South Africa didn't like being boycotted. And ultimately it had an effect there.

    SKS says kick Israel out

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10028959/amp/Keir-Starmer-appeared-meeting-included-call-punish-Israeli-racism.html
    Before he was backed by the Israeli lobbyist donors and before he coincidentally changed his name by deed poll to Tel Aviv Keith
    He's been on a journey has our Keir
    He has indeed. Who knows where he will go next... :(
    Probably home
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    Lol, strong ‘some of my best dance moves have been gay’ vibes from the silly old twat. Indicates that even wallowing about in his massive ego he realises the unnatural stuff was a misstep.

    https://x.com/stuzi_pants/status/1787551057809170503?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    That's the best clip of him since he became the cat.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146

    I note with interest that the new new First Minister is making pronouncements about his new government's policy direction being different from the last one.

    Where's your mandate love?

    It was intriguing he called for Liz Truss to call an election but he does not have to. There's a word that comes to my mind for this, H something
    Lot of it about.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68605899
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614
    nico679 said:

    Man Utd are awful .

    Atrocious defending and the manager really should walk .

    Agreed
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089

    I note with interest that the new new First Minister is making pronouncements about his new government's policy direction being different from the last one.

    Where's your mandate love?

    It was intriguing he called for Liz Truss to call an election but he does not have to. There's a word that comes to my mind for this, H something
    Lot of it about.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68605899
    I agree, he should call an election too.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,951
    L

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

    https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1787523404871954780

    Big news

    Would be big news if they were at war with either Egypt or Qatar.

    They need to accept Israel's proposal, lay down their arms unconditionally, surrender and disband.
    No. Israel needs to stop acting as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas by recreating Bloody Sunday every day without cessation. Because even if the current members of Hamas were to surrender (to an uncertain fate in Israeli custody) they will simply be replaced
    by a generation of young Palestinians bent on revenge on the country that has destroyed their families and futures.

    Britain has managed to “defeat” centuries of armed insurgents agains our brutal occuparion in Ireland but the wounds of our actions just fed a new generation of resistance. Same happens in occupied Palestine. Israel needs to understand that defeating Hamas in the way it anticipates will be, at best, pyrrhic.
    The only way to end the recruiting sergeant is to have full employment and economic development for Palestinians, where t hey have economic opportunities and no reason to fight.

    That ain't happening so long as they're blockaded, and as long as Hamas are there, they will be - and quite rightly too.

    Gaza wasn't blockaded when Israel withdrew from it. That only happened after Hamas took over.

    A ceasefire just guarantees years of misery, more blockades, more misery, more simmering, more hatred, then another eruption of violence in the future.

    We need to break the cycle of violence, that can only happen by destroying Hamas then having a Marshall Plan style development afterwards. A ceasefire will just continue the cycle of violence.
    Performance art
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,861

    I note with interest that the new new First Minister is making pronouncements about his new government's policy direction being different from the last one.

    Where's your mandate love?

    It was intriguing he called for Liz Truss to call an election but he does not have to. There's a word that comes to my mind for this, H something
    Under the Scotland Act it is not in the FM's gift. Unlike at Westminster

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @ABLPoli
    I hadn't seen this analysis yet. ALL of England and Wales voted last Thursday.

    They voted for either PCCs or mayors with PCC powers, the result of the 12millions votes cast in those ballots:

    Lab: 40.9%
    Con: 31.8%
    Lib Dem: 13.1%
    Ind/Other: 7.0%
    Green: 4.8%
    Ref: 1.6%
    Plaid: 0.8%

    @JamesKanag

    Very interesting. Slightly suggests the voting intention polls are off on the conservatives (i.e not 18%) but that beneath the surface Labour are inflicting significant damage due to proportional swing at the seat level on a much more modest vote share lead of 10-12 points
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    DougSeal said:

    BlancheLivermore, have you ever considered hiking the Appalachian Trail?

    Bit longer than the Camino, but doable in sections; hikers esp. those doing/attempting entire AT generally start in Georgia and work their way north toward Maine.

    I don’t think you quite appreciate how much Europeans underestimate the sheer size of the USA. The Appalachian trail is roughly 2,200 miles. Dunnet Head (the northernmost part of mainland Scotland) to Lizard Point (the most southerly point of England) only 600. So walking the whole trail is the equivalent of walking up and down this whole damn island nearly 4 times! How do you find the time, even in a lifetime?
    Whilst your distances are technically correct (the best sort of correct!) the Lizard Point to Dunnet Head measurement is a bit out in practice due to Britain's geography. To cycle or walk between Land's End and John O'Groats is generally about 1,000 miles (avoiding busy roads), and an enjoyable hike using trails nearer 1,100 to 1,200. walking it via the west coast can be over 3,000 miles (depending on exact route and island-hopping).
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