Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The enduring legacy of Liz Truss – politicalbetting.com

1246

Comments

  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2024

    'People up and down the country' also >>>>>>> bin
    "I've been hearing..." 🡒 bin.
    Any piece of writing containing a tweet 🡒 bin.
    Any piece of writing citing "experts" 🡒 bin.

    Most writing now is sub-Christmas round robin.
    The blog for example is a fucking awful medium. Avoid.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,737
    ToryJim said:

    As he is sensible he will probably either retire or return to business. He is not in the situation that survivors of the GE will be in of being forced to participate in the ensuing bloodbath.
    Perhaps there's a byelection in a safe seat coming, and they need a sane candidate?
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Cicero said:

    Actually there is a reasonable chance that the Lib Dems do poll in the high teens. They are generally ignored by the media, but at election times they have to be reported fairly, and usually they benefit from the attention. So coming into the campaign on around 12-13% they could easily climb. Unlike Reform they have the capacity to wage a ground war in their target seats, so gains like Winchester and Cheltenham in Wessex are looking pretty certain. I would say therefore that it is more likely than not that the Lib Dems match their 1997 performance and more than double their seat tally. If the Tories hit meltdown then more seats in places like Surrey and Glos come into play too and that credibility can enhance their poll rating in a positive circle. The media has a limited attention span, and after the 53rd "Starmer on course for a landslide as Sunak is yesterday´s cold mince" story, they may well cast around for a fresh angle. "Lib Dems poised to make pincer movement on the Tories in their target seats" is one such story.
    Cicero said:

    Actually there is a reasonable chance that the Lib Dems do poll in the high teens. They are generally ignored by the media, but at election times they have to be reported fairly, and usually they benefit from the attention. So coming into the campaign on around 12-13% they could easily climb. Unlike Reform they have the capacity to wage a ground war in their target seats, so gains like Winchester and Cheltenham in Wessex are looking pretty certain. I would say therefore that it is more likely than not that the Lib Dems match their 1997 performance and more than double their seat tally. If the Tories hit meltdown then more seats in places like Surrey and Glos come into play too and that credibility can enhance their poll rating in a positive circle. The media has a limited attention span, and after the 53rd "Starmer on course for a landslide as Sunak is yesterday´s cold mince" story, they may well cast around for a fresh angle. "Lib Dems poised to make pincer movement on the Tories in their target seats" is one such story.
    I disagree with that. The enduring impact of the Coalition is that the LDs have ceased to be viewed as the NOTA option in the way that was often true pre- 2010. Voters have found other options - the Greens and Reform being obvious current examples. It was also true of Ukip and the Brexit party. Many alienated left of centre voters who would have switched to the LDs pre- 2010 are now much more likely to Vote Green. Local election advances by the latter are also seriously limiting any LD progress.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456

    I wouldn't call having one science teacher who was a 'borderline creationist' 'being taught all sorts of right wing views', and the surprise with which you describe his borderline creationism rather tells its own story, wouldn't you say?

    I am not sure that pupils can 'ignore' that much of their education - they may ignore or disregard being told to be quiet or hand their homework in on time, but they are still educated in a miasma of accepted truth via both the curriculum and the way it's delivered, which only a minority grow to oppose. It's not the same in the US of course.
    I was “taught”:

    - homosexuality is totally unnatural, no wonder it’s never been accepted in societies (biology teacher)
    - foetuses feel pain from early in pregnancy and Abortion is therefore tantamount to torture (RE teacher)
    - All sorts of glorious stuff about the British empire and how it was better than the Grench one (history teacher)

    Etc

    Teachers were pretty open about their politics back then, but as I say largely ignored
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    MattW said:

    Perhaps there's a byelection in a safe seat coming, and they need a sane candidate?
    Not sure the Tories could hold a by election seat this side of the election.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    Mr. Valiant, on that time scale, I would agree.

    However, Russia has massively ramped up expenditure on its armed forces and if it achieves victory in Ukraine in the next year or two it will be more than capable of a rapid invasion of the Baltic Tigers. The countries are small and there's a severe risk they'd be overrun before substantial reinforcements arrive.

    Even if Putin doesn't try and do that to NATO, Moldova's a sitting duck, as is Georgia.

    Mr. Donkeys, draw up a list of invasions Putin's overseen, then make a list of countries he's invaded that were never in the USSR.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,472
    a
    TimS said:

    I was “taught”:

    - homosexuality is totally unnatural, no wonder it’s never been accepted in societies (biology teacher)
    - foetuses feel pain from early in pregnancy and Abortion is therefore tantamount to torture (RE teacher)
    - All sorts of glorious stuff about the British empire and how it was better than the Grench one (history teacher)

    Etc

    Teachers were pretty open about their politics back then, but as I say largely ignored
    At least you had a teacher who was sound about the French.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2024
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Glorious start here in downtown East Ham as the people of London celebrate their deliverance from the machinations of Susan Hall (or not, as the case may be).

    Plenty to chew over from Thursday - I'll be interested to see how many administration changes will occur as a result of the elections. Could the Conservatives be replaced by a Lab/LD administration in Dudley - what of Havant? It is sometimes the case the erstwhile Independent turns out to be more of a Condependent and that maintains Conservative control.

    Looking at Surrey for example, Runnymede, one of the few councils to remain Conservative-controlled through the nadir of the mid-90s, had 20 Conservative Councillors out of 41, now it has only 13 so a non-Conservative administration looks possible.

    The same may happen in Reigate & Banstead where 23 Conservative Councillors out of 45 is now 18.

    It is now both practical and possible in both Councils to create a majority administration without the Conservatives whereas before it was only possible in theory.

    Interesting situation here in Norwich, labour lost majority control earlier this year with 4 defections over Gaza. They got two back (one by a handful of votes only) but lost 2 to greens meaning we now have
    19 Lab
    15 Green
    3 LD
    2 Indy ex Lab
    So, theoretically, on LD and ex Lab tastes we could see a Green admin for the first time
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,670
    edited May 2024
    Thatcher said that it was a disgrace that children are taught in schools "they have an inalienable right to be gay". Surely anyone can see that is shameful.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,737
    edited May 2024

    Third like the Tories by seats won

    (also FPT… 95% of cyclists do have a device capable of measuring speed on their bike, it’s called a smartphone. And the 5% that don’t are called Bert, aged 90, and use the bike for cycling to Spar and church at 6mph. I’m a fairly fervent cycling advocate but I tend to think speed limits should apply to us too.)

    I question the 95%; I don't routinely run a speedo of any sort (except on the E-folder), and theft of Smartphones from handlebars is a real problem.

    The stuff about "can't be charged because of no applicable speed limit" is pure BS, and Telegraph stirring; there are offences such as Careless Cycling and Dangerous Cycling on the books since about 1991, which could have been designed for head-down-not-looking pelotons in Central London. There are loopholes around where injury is caused, which are exactly the same in principle as those that exist for motor vehicle drivers between eg Careless Driving, and Causing Serious Injury by Careless Driving; so if injury is less than broken bones it cannot be charged.

    That's due to 8 or 10 do-nothing Transport Ministers in a row, who have not done what they said they would do wrt Road Safety.

    It's a strange thing that the Telegraph are maundering on about speed limits for people riding cycles, when the first thing they tell us about 20mph limits for motor vehicles is how impossible they are to stick to and 'it will be more dangerous because all the drivers will be glued to their speedometers'. Which is it, Telegraph?

    I'll address the points made on the previous thread later because they deserve a serious comment & proposals rather than the Telegraph's poisonous & opportunistic shit stirring. The lady who died in this collision deserves a better legacy.

    I would have weighed in yesterday evening, but I was cycling up and down part of the Trent around Nottingham / Holme Pierrepoint. Millions of competitive student rowers everywhere, who will presumably be engaged in vigorous nocturnal activity all weekend.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911

    He introduced Eat Out to Spread Covid About. That is more than enough to explain his political ability (or lack thereof).
    Which did nothing in the overall scheme of things. Our Covid infection rates at that time were comparable to our peers in Europe.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 561
    Truss may have fronted the "fiscal event," but the whole tory party voted for it. Somehow reducing this to Truss makes no sense. They all approved it, and the conservative membership put her in knowing full well what she would do. The whole thing signaled the catastrophically bad judgement of a whole political movement and its ecology.
  • Truss may have fronted the "fiscal event," but the whole tory party voted for it. Somehow reducing this to Truss makes no sense. They all approved it, and the conservative membership put her in knowing full well what she would do. The whole thing signaled the catastrophically bad judgement of a whole political movement and its ecology.

    Andy Street supported it!
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 997
    legatus said:

    I disagree with that. The enduring impact of the Coalition is that the LDs have ceased to be viewed as the NOTA option in the way that was often true pre- 2010. Voters have found other options - the Greens and Reform being obvious current examples. It was also true of Ukip and the Brexit party. Many alienated left of centre voters who would have switched to the LDs pre- 2010 are now much more likely to Vote Green. Local election advances by the latter are also seriously limiting any LD progress.
    Burbage (Leicestershire County Council by-election last Thursday):

    Lib Dem 1496
    Conservative 880
    Labour 401
    Green 138

    Lib Dem gain from Conservative.

    The public know who to vote for.

    As someone walking past the polling station said to me - "If you had been a standing there as a Conservative you would have been shot."



  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126

    You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast :)

    You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast :)
    Also making fornication a criminal offence.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    MaxPB said:

    I'm in the Keir Starmer is too weak to do anything about it camp. Not that it's impossible. For me house price reform needs much more joined up thinking which also includes immigration reform, some has already happened with the current government pushing up minimum income levels and barring dependents on certain types of visa, it needs to go further though and it should be regional, a visa for London should be upwards of £50k minimum income, a visa for somewhere in the north could be a lot lower. The issue of house prices and immigration fuelling rent price increases is very much a London and South East phenomenon. Barring non-elite universities from issuing visas, no longer allowing dependents and reducing the 2 year free hit to 6 months will all help. Labour will do none of these and have been making noises about the "cruelty" of the new dependents rule. So no, house prices, rent prices and planning will see no appreciable difference under Labour.

    I actually think, in the end, it will be a future Tory party that does it because they will have no choice but to become that party to win again. They almost had it with Dave and George but just didn't go far enough and then May and Boris undid all of it.
    If you bar non-elite universities from issuing visas, they will go bankrupt. Unless you pay them substantially more for home student fees.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    TimS said:

    Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.

    The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
    Mint choc chip ice cream?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    TimS said:

    I was “taught”:

    - homosexuality is totally unnatural, no wonder it’s never been accepted in societies (biology teacher)
    - foetuses feel pain from early in pregnancy and Abortion is therefore tantamount to torture (RE teacher)
    - All sorts of glorious stuff about the British empire and how it was better than the French one (history teacher)

    Etc

    Teachers were pretty open about their politics back then, but as I say largely ignored
    Point taken - I wasn't there, so I can't contradict.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    It is insane - but it is fact - that Andy Street will have next to no role to play in any Tory rebuild. He has some serious thinking to do about whether he wants to be complicit in what happens next.

    Au contraire. Jobless Andy Street has six months until the general election to find a safe seat, in which case he will be nailed on for the shadow cabinet with a fair chance of replacing Rishi when he steps down as leader.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,923
    TimS said:

    True. With the @Luckyguy1983 rider that they require fat. Ideally bacon grease and some little bacon bits.

    Creamed spinach likewise - basic boiled or steamed spinach meh, mixed with butter or cream and garlic yum.
    Sprouts with bacon sounds lovely. Just hold the sprouts for me however.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Freshfields boosts pay for newly qualified lawyers to £150,000
    https://www.ft.com/content/f4f19e1b-b4c9-405c-9ea2-d6b13f9b4efa

    You know they only pay that much to piss off the doctors.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216

    Yes. And that wasn't the first, nor the last time that I've been shown to be wrong on PB and admitted as much. Not that doing so drew any kind of line under that debate with some of PB's more psychologically interesting posters.
    If I missed that, apologies - and good for you for saying so.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Donkeys said:

    "I've been hearing..." 🡒 bin.
    Any piece of writing containing a tweet 🡒 bin.
    Any piece of writing citing "experts" 🡒 bin.

    Most writing now is sub-Christmas round robin.
    The blog for example is a fucking awful medium. Avoid.
    Podcasts are the new blogs. Everyone has one; some have several.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818

    Au contraire. Jobless Andy Street has six months until the general election to find a safe seat, in which case he will be nailed on for the shadow cabinet with a fair chance of replacing Rishi when he steps down as leader.
    Assuming the Tories form the Shadow Cabinet that is.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    Mint choc chip ice cream?
    Why don't they make mint ice cream without chocolate? Or orange without chocolate? There must be a reason.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    TimS said:

    I was “taught”:

    - homosexuality is totally unnatural, no wonder it’s never been accepted in societies (biology teacher)
    - foetuses feel pain from early in pregnancy and Abortion is therefore tantamount to torture (RE teacher)
    - All sorts of glorious stuff about the British empire and how it was better than the Grench one (history teacher)

    Etc

    Teachers were pretty open about their politics back then, but as I say largely ignored
    This was a bestseller thirty years ago - and still in print.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies_My_Teacher_Told_Me


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Bonus council news from Norfolk.
    The Tories have lost control of South Norfolk Council after losing a by election on Thursday in Bunwell to the Greens (10 votes in it!)
    In the other By election, the Tories gained Hermitage ward in Breckland from the Lib Dems (Mid Norfolk constituency)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674

    If you bar non-elite universities from issuing visas, they will go bankrupt. Unless you pay them substantially more for home student fees.
    Then let them go bankrupt, they serve little to no purpose other than being visa factories anyway.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 756
    MattW said:

    I question the 95%; I don't routinely run a speedo of any sort (except on the E-folder), and theft of Smartphones from handlebars is a real problem.

    The stuff about "can't be charged because of no applicable speed limit" is pure BS, and Telegraph stirring; there are offences such as Careless Cycling and Dangerous Cycling on the books since about 1991, which could have been designed for head-down-not-looking pelotons in Central London. There are loopholes around where injury is caused, which are exactly the same in principle as those that exist for motor vehicle drivers between eg Careless Driving, and Causing Serious Injury by Careless Driving; so if injury is less than broken bones it cannot be charged.

    That's due to 8 or 10 do-nothing Transport Ministers in a row, who have not done what they said they would do wrt Road Safety.

    It's a strange thing that the Telegraph are maundering on about speed limits for people riding cycles, when the first thing they tell us about 20mph limits for motor vehicles is how impossible they are to stick to and 'it will be more dangerous because all the drivers will be glued to their speedometers'. Which is it, Telegraph?

    I'll address the points made on the previous thread later because they deserve a serious comment & proposals rather than the Telegraph's poisonous & opportunistic shit stirring. The lady who died in this collision deserves a better legacy.

    I would have weighed in yesterday evening, but I was cycling up and down part of the Trent around Nottingham / Holme Pierrepoint. Millions of competitive student rowers everywhere, who will presumably be engaged in vigorous nocturnal activity all weekend.
    I agree that offences such as Dangerous Cycling should be sufficient and in busy urban areas it is wise not to go to quickly even when cycling on the road. I once got unseated by a pedestrian stepping out without looking into the cycle lane right in front of me, assuming that it was safe because the motor traffic was (as usual) stationary.

    My phone is always in my bag so not much use for judging speed, even if I could work out how to get Strava to show actual speed rather than average.

    In practice I notice that flat out I can just about sustain 30km/h for a km or two. A younger, fitter, more serious cyclist can probably manage that consistently. It seems that the fastest I have been is 58kph downhill. There is a camera to catch people speeding downhill just inside a 30mph zone on one of my regular routes; I have been trying to set it off for years without success.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    If you bar non-elite universities from issuing visas, they will go bankrupt. Unless you pay them substantially more for home student fees.
    It is not just non-elite universities. There are some colleges you will not have heard of that offer degrees, because it's a free market. Search for London School of... and see what Google or Bing suggests.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216

    Thatcher said that it was a disgrace that children are taught in schools "they have an inalienable right to be gay". Surely anyone can see that is shameful.

    They did back then.
    Section 28 was controversial even in the Tory party.
    The Mail, Sun and Telegraph all strongly supported it, of course. Labour were equivocal.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Israel shutting down Al Jazeera in Israel. Netanyahu on full tilt
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    PJH said:

    I agree that offences such as Dangerous Cycling should be sufficient and in busy urban areas it is wise not to go to quickly even when cycling on the road. I once got unseated by a pedestrian stepping out without looking into the cycle lane right in front of me, assuming that it was safe because the motor traffic was (as usual) stationary.

    My phone is always in my bag so not much use for judging speed, even if I could work out how to get Strava to show actual speed rather than average.

    In practice I notice that flat out I can just about sustain 30km/h for a km or two. A younger, fitter, more serious cyclist can probably manage that consistently. It seems that the fastest I have been is 58kph downhill. There is a camera to catch people speeding downhill just inside a 30mph zone on one of my regular routes; I have been trying to set it off for years without success.
    You can get a bike GPS for 25 quid on Amazon
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199

    Why don't they make mint ice cream without chocolate? Or orange without chocolate? There must be a reason.
    I had an orange marmalade ice cream (from Arran ice cream) the other day - delicious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    Yes, having lost under 40s who mostly rent in 2019, the Tories have now lost property owners with mortgages from 40-65 after the Truss budget led to a surge in interest rates. Hence for now the only group the Conservatives still lead with pensioners over 65 who are owner occupiers
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    Freshfields boosts pay for newly qualified lawyers to £150,000
    https://www.ft.com/content/f4f19e1b-b4c9-405c-9ea2-d6b13f9b4efa

    You know they only pay that much to piss off the doctors.

    And a lot of lawyers. It’s unsustainable
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    Betting Post

    F1: backed Sainz and Perez each way (single stake split evenly) at 21 and 26. if either can get past Leclerc they stand a good chance of holding on.

    Of course, Verstappen's car breaking would be ideal, but twice in one season might be asking a bit much.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/05/miami-pre-race-2024.html
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, having lost under 40s who mostly rent in 2019, the Tories have now lost property owners with mortgages from 40-65 after the Truss budget led to a surge in interest rates. Hence for now the only group the Conservatives still lead with pensioners over 65 who are owner occupiers

    The Truss budget didn't lead to rising interest rates.

    I say this to you because you purport to be a loyal conservative, yet along with the current leadership, you buy into Labour attack lines. It cannot be argued that Truss's growth plan was not mistimed, poorly sold, and she hadn't prepared the ground for it - nor that the events surrounding it have damaged the cause of low tax high growth economic models. But it compounds the damage when supposed Tories are only too willing to repeat Labour narratives.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    The Truss budget didn't lead to rising interest rates.

    I say this to you because you purport to be a loyal conservative, yet along with the current leadership, you buy into Labour attack lines. It cannot be argued that Truss's growth plan was not mistimed, poorly sold, and she hadn't prepared the ground for it - nor that the events surrounding it have damaged the cause of low tax high growth economic models. But it compounds the damage when supposed Tories are only too willing to repeat Labour narratives.
    If HYUFD is only a “supposed” Tory then I’m not sure the real thing can possibly exist.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664
    legatus said:

    Probably now less than five and a half months from Poling Day which I expect to be October 17th.
    Worth a punt on poling day.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    TimS said:

    Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.

    The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
    I had a very nice starter last week: what looked like a mini scotch egg was a runny egg yolk in some sort of breadcrumb and herb covering, sitting on a triangle of lightly fried mozzarella-type cheese, surrounded by thinly sliced fresh an dente asparagus.

    Now I am in sunny Urbino and having a more hearty lunch of schiaffoni and rabbit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Back on topic, I’m working with a very capable AI-bot, and I’ve trained and jailbreaked her in a certain way I especially wanted, that I now find her sexually arousing
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    MaxPB said:

    Then let them go bankrupt, they serve little to no purpose other than being visa factories anyway.
    I’ve seen some shit takes in my time but this is one of the worst.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, having lost under 40s who mostly rent in 2019, the Tories have now lost property owners with mortgages from 40-65 after the Truss budget led to a surge in interest rates. Hence for now the only group the Conservatives still lead with pensioners over 65 who are owner occupiers

    Er, you need to be more precise. Owner occupiers include people who have mortgages. Of course, hitherto most of these over 65 have already paid it off - but that won't last. Lots of people, not so much younger, will still be paying mortgages when they are 65, now.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 756
    edited May 2024
    Vanilla purge
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,764
    Got round to watching the Susan Hall speech and then the booing and heckling of Khan.

    All together deeply unsavoury. I wonder if a Tory Grandee (perhaps Cameron?) should step in and calm things down a bit, and the Government should look at the kind of protection Khan has got. I think he could be in serious personal peril.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996

    Au contraire. Jobless Andy Street has six months until the general election to find a safe seat, in which case he will be nailed on for the shadow cabinet with a fair chance of replacing Rishi when he steps down as leader.
    Street seems far too nice a chap to survive long in the modern Tory Party. Would he even want the trouble of getting involved in what is likely a brutal civil war with people (Braverman, Boris and his acolytes) who would use every dirty trick at him if consider a threat?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 756
    megasaur said:

    You can get a bike GPS for 25 quid on Amazon
    I'm sure I can but I don't care enough and can't be bothered!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    IanB2 said:

    I had a very nice starter last week: what looked like a mini scotch egg was a runny egg yolk in some sort of breadcrumb and herb covering, sitting on a triangle of lightly fried mozzarella-type cheese, surrounded by thinly sliced fresh an dente asparagus.

    Now I am in sunny Urbino and having a more hearty lunch of schiaffoni and rabbit.
    Awwww. How civilised.

    In complete contrast, I have just discovered my supermarket delivery is missing the asparagus and broccoli I ordered.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526
    Eabhal said:

    Got round to watching the Susan Hall speech and then the booing and heckling of Khan.

    All together deeply unsavoury. I wonder if a Tory Grandee (perhaps Cameron?) should step in and calm things down a bit, and the Government should look at the kind of protection Khan has got. I think he could be in serious personal peril.

    Various threatening posts on Twitter saying that the only way now to stop Khan was to physically attack him.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    DougSeal said:

    If HYUFD is only a “supposed” Tory then I’m not sure the real thing can possibly exist.
    HYUFD is a tribal Tory whose support usually belongs to the leadership until such a position becomes untenable. I don't think there's any love lost between Sunak and Truss, and Sunak has been fairly unguarded in his bitchy asides on the Truss (and Johnson) premierships, so HYUFD is following suit. Neither seems to realise (or care) that this buys into opposition talking points and damages the entire party.

    I have often noted this about the wet tendency which currently holds the leadership and cabinet. Very very quick to condemn disunity and carping about their figureheads - but an absolute nest of vipers when it comes to a non-wet leader. I remember Anna Soubry complaining about disloyalty to Cameron 'Why aren't we bashing lefties instead of each other?' (delightful sentiment) but as soon as Brexit looked like going through, she changed her tune on 'bashing lefties' and decided to form a political party with them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    edited May 2024
    Interesting that in London close to 40% voted either Hall, RefUK or similar parties to RefUK. Fits in with the 40% Brexit vote in London in 2016. Suggest that bloc will be higher than 40% in most of the rest of the country (excl. Scotland). Indeed in the West Midlands the Tories got 37.5% and RefUK 6%.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TimS said:

    I was “taught”:

    - homosexuality is totally unnatural, no wonder it’s never been accepted in societies (biology teacher)
    - foetuses feel pain from early in pregnancy and Abortion is therefore tantamount to torture (RE teacher)
    - All sorts of glorious stuff about the British empire and how it was better than the Grench one (history teacher)

    Etc

    Teachers were pretty open about their politics back then, but as I say largely ignored
    Sad.

    As someone educated in the 90s I don't remember anything like that. Sometimes teachers offered their own views but it was generally pointed out that it was their own opinion. Maybe I was just lucky.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,314
    edited May 2024
    PJH said:

    I'm sure I can but I don't care enough and can't be bothered!
    My phone is also in my bag. I do use a speedo, but only use it for distance measuring. It is plain dangerous to keep looking down at the speedo so people suggesting that clearly don't cycle as that is asking for a collision or hitting a pot hole and being thrown off. Admittedly I don't present a threat to speed limits anyway. I don't cycle much in built up areas and if I do I will cycle slowly (10 kph). On country lanes (if flat and with good tarmac) I will cycle between 20 - 35 kph and that will have been on unrestricted country lanes.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    I think in this header, the line of best fit looks dependent of a few outliers. No pattern in 90%+ of the data points.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    Carnyx said:

    Er, you need to be more precise. Owner occupiers include people who have mortgages. Of course, hitherto most of these over 65 have already paid it off - but that won't last. Lots of people, not so much younger, will still be paying mortgages when they are 65, now.
    Over 65s however normally have paid off their mortgage and own their property outright.

    After the next general election it will likely be a Labour government then responsible for the economic situation affecting mortgage rates
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021
    edited May 2024

    So his entire upbringing is defined by where his parents sent him for his post 13 education? What a lazy and outdated view. By all accounts he helped out at the pharmacy. I doubt all the customers were millionaires.

    Parents will sacrifice quite a lot in paying school fees. They might not actually have had the most luxurious holidays.
    The thing is that the perception is that doesn't have a clue about ordinary peoples' lives. Remember the petrol station incident? It is rather academic whether it is true or not, and probably unknowable anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281

    The Truss budget didn't lead to rising interest rates.

    I say this to you because you purport to be a loyal conservative, yet along with the current leadership, you buy into Labour attack lines. It cannot be argued that Truss's growth plan was not mistimed, poorly sold, and she hadn't prepared the ground for it - nor that the events surrounding it have damaged the cause of low tax high growth economic models. But it compounds the damage when supposed Tories are only too willing to repeat Labour narratives.
    Truss' problem was Kwarteng's budget cut taxes without also cutting spending, expanding the deficit, spooking the markets and leading to the rates surge
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Au contraire. Jobless Andy Street has six months until the general election to find a safe seat, in which case he will be nailed on for the shadow cabinet with a fair chance of replacing Rishi when he steps down as leader.
    Unlikely. The Tory membership is vastly older and more right wing than the general population. They will conclude that they lost the election because they weren't extreme enough, and that the path to recovery lies through making a pitch to people with similar opinions to themselves who stayed at home or voted RefUK in a huff.

    They'll pick whichever of the surviving leadership hopefuls is the farthest right, because they'll be feeling rejected and hurt, and that'll be what fits with their inclinations. Remember that the Tories had to work through an entire cycle of failed and defeated leaders over a decade before they finally accepted the need for detoxification and picked David Cameron.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    Mr. Valiant, on that time scale, I would agree.

    However, Russia has massively ramped up expenditure on its armed forces and if it achieves victory in Ukraine in the next year or two it will be more than capable of a rapid invasion of the Baltic Tigers. The countries are small and there's a severe risk they'd be overrun before substantial reinforcements arrive.

    Even if Putin doesn't try and do that to NATO, Moldova's a sitting duck, as is Georgia.

    Mr. Donkeys, draw up a list of invasions Putin's overseen, then make a list of countries he's invaded that were never in the USSR.

    Fancy putting a full stop after Mr, Morris; call yourself British?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,764
    OllyT said:

    The thing is that the perception is that doesn't have a clue about ordinary peoples' lives. Remember the petrol station incident? It is rather academic whether it is true or not, and probably unknowable anyway.
    It's probably a bit different to how you refuel a helicopter, bless.
  • MattW said:

    It's a strange thing that the Telegraph are maundering on about speed limits for people riding cycles, when the first thing they tell us about 20mph limits for motor vehicles is how impossible they are to stick to and 'it will be more dangerous because all the drivers will be glued to their speedometers'. Which is it, Telegraph?

    Much as I hate to say it, both of the Telegraph's angles on this are correct. Keeping to 20mpg on a cycle is a lot easier because you have to put in quite noticeable physical effort to go faster, it's not hard to keep from going way, way over the posted limit (which is, of course, all that's required for bikes, unlike powered vehicles).

    Car drivers have a harder time, particularly EVs with their lack of feedback and high acceleration.

    Personally I find most 20mph limits quite dangerous. I usually get around on a 125cc class scooter, which have the interesting attributes of being very lightweight and possessing crazy low-speed acceleration. It's very easy to jump from 20 to 30 in a second or so, and the CVT transmission on scooters provides much less feedback in the way of engine revs than a geared system.

    The result is I spend much more time than I am comfortable with looking at the speedo in 20mph zones. My nearest city, Glasgow, is apparently planing to introduce 20mph limits on over 4000 streets. I'll probably give up going there, it's already hostile territory for vehicles, even more so for scooters and motorcycles than cars.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,305
    Re Gaza and flaky Labour support, a bigger headache for Starmer would be if India and Pakistan were to have another re-run of conflict over Kashmir.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505
    MJW said:

    Street seems far too nice a chap to survive long in the modern Tory Party. Would he even want the trouble of getting involved in what is likely a brutal civil war with people (Braverman, Boris and his acolytes) who would use every dirty trick at him if consider a threat?
    Not sure that Braverman is capable of posing as much of a threat as she thinks - she has an article in the Telegraph today saying that Rishi is in a hole and should therefore get shovelling. Clearly a political genius.


    (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/04/local-election-results-suella-braverman-rishi-sunak/)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Leon said:

    My work is done. I’m having a nap

    As opposed to your work, which consists of having a knap?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Leon said:

    Back on topic, I’m working with a very capable AI-bot, and I’ve trained and jailbreaked her in a certain way I especially wanted, that I now find her sexually arousing

    You are such a sad man
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    I recall many on here who hate Owen J also loathe Lord Tom, so a bit of a dilemma here. Personally I'd say only one of them is a bloated old has-been sniping from the sidelines.


    You're right.

    Tom Watson has lost loads of weight.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2024
    I think the question now is the size of Labour's majority - from barebones to landslide of 97 style, these results show us there is neither a tidal wave of enthusiastic popular support for Lab nor a universal loathing of the Tories sufficient to take us outside of this on the upside nor any sign of recovery or 'stop the reds' sufficient to take us past the downside
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    MJW said:

    Street seems far too nice a chap to survive long in the modern Tory Party. Would he even want the trouble of getting involved in what is likely a brutal civil war with people (Braverman, Boris and his acolytes) who would use every dirty trick at him if consider a threat?
    Who besides Andy Street is there on the centrist wing of the party? Repeated leadership flop Jeremy Hunt? He can sit back and let those on the right take lumps out of each other.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that in London close to 40% voted either Hall, RefUK or similar parties to RefUK. Fits in with the 40% Brexit vote in London in 2016. Suggest that bloc will be higher than 40% in most of the rest of the country (excl. Scotland). Indeed in the West Midlands the Tories got 37.5% and RefUK 6%.

    The Conservative vote share in London was similar to 2019.

    I’d expect the Conservatives now to hold Harrow East, Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green. Places like Two Cities, Kensington & Bayswater, Chingford, however, are gone.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,764

    Much as I hate to say it, both of the Telegraph's angles on this are correct. Keeping to 20mpg on a cycle is a lot easier because you have to put in quite noticeable physical effort to go faster, it's not hard to keep from going way, way over the posted limit (which is, of course, all that's required for bikes, unlike powered vehicles).

    Car drivers have a harder time, particularly EVs with their lack of feedback and high acceleration.

    Personally I find most 20mph limits quite dangerous. I usually get around on a 125cc class scooter, which have the interesting attributes of being very lightweight and possessing crazy low-speed acceleration. It's very easy to jump from 20 to 30 in a second or so, and the CVT transmission on scooters provides much less feedback in the way of engine revs than a geared system.

    The result is I spend much more time than I am comfortable with looking at the speedo in 20mph zones. My nearest city, Glasgow, is apparently planing to introduce 20mph limits on over 4000 streets. I'll probably give up going there, it's already hostile territory for vehicles, even more so for scooters and motorcycles than cars.
    Glasgow, hostile to vehicles? It's got a massive motorway straight through the middle of it!

    And don't worry about 20mph - you get used to it very quickly, and I instinctively drive at that speed now in most urban areas. 30mph just feels a bit hectic now.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,956
    TimS said:

    I was “taught”:

    - homosexuality is totally unnatural, no wonder it’s never been accepted in societies (biology teacher)
    - foetuses feel pain from early in pregnancy and Abortion is therefore tantamount to torture (RE teacher)
    - All sorts of glorious stuff about the British empire and how it was better than the Grench one (history teacher)

    Etc

    Teachers were pretty open about their politics back then, but as I say largely ignored
    In my day such things had not been invented, still less discussed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    kjh said:

    My phone is also in my bag. I do use a speedo, but only use it for distance measuring. It is plain dangerous to keep looking down at the speedo so people suggesting that clearly don't cycle as that is asking for a collision or hitting a pot hole and being thrown off. Admittedly I don't present a threat to speed limits anyway. I don't cycle much in built up areas and if I do I will cycle slowly (10 kph). On country lanes (if flat and with good tarmac) I will cycle between 20 - 35 kph and that will have been on unrestricted country lanes.
    That's... b/s. You do not need to keep 'looking down' unless you're trying to knock precisely on the speed limit's door. I use my Garmin sportswatch, and glance at it every km or so just to check my current and average speed. If I'm in a speed-limited area, I will glance at it occasionally just to check I'm within the speed limit and try to keep the pace under. And it's much harder to look at my wristwatch than glance at a display on the handlebars.

    It's the same idiotic thinking that has many 'cyclists' claim helmets are unnecessary... ;)

    I'm not saying we should have speedos on bikes; just that whilst a minority of pepperami-in-lycra cyclists act like @sshats by selfishly speeding, it's something that should be considered.

    (Citation: just did a very pleasant Sunday morning ride, just under 40km.)
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    OllyT said:

    The thing is that the perception is that doesn't have a clue about ordinary peoples' lives. Remember the petrol station incident? It is rather academic whether it is true or not, and probably unknowable anyway.
    It was on telly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    edited May 2024

    Sad.

    As someone educated in the 90s I don't remember anything like that. Sometimes teachers offered their own views but it was generally pointed out that it was their own opinion. Maybe I was just lucky.
    It is nearly impossible, when teaching, to entirely hide your personal views. Anyone who thinks it is possible has never actually done it or is stupid (or in the case of the drunken imbeciles at the DfE, both). Even if you don't do it deliberately something as small as an anecdote can give you away.

    It would be more sensible for teachers to be instructed to be open about their personal beliefs and then encourage students to disagree, critique and debate them based on evidence. That's what I was encouraged to do in sixth form by a (Socialist) teacher and it gave me a far better education than just being taught boring facts. Whether all teachers are capable of doing so in a constructive and positive way is another question, of course.

    In any case - we can't have that as it might lead to actual critical thinking, which every aspect of our school system seems designed to suppress.

    I was very surprised, incidentally, to see a new system for maths teaching in a school I've been advising that did not prize problem solving or creativity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    AlsoLei said:

    Not sure that Braverman is capable of posing as much of a threat as she thinks - she has an article in the Telegraph today saying that Rishi is in a hole and should therefore get shovelling. Clearly a political genius.


    (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/04/local-election-results-suella-braverman-rishi-sunak/)
    And missing a key preposition, too
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456

    Sad.

    As someone educated in the 90s I don't remember anything like that. Sometimes teachers offered their own views but it was generally pointed out that it was their own opinion. Maybe I was just lucky.
    I don’t think my school was particularly right wing. It’s just the teachers were very direct in sharing their opinions on things and including them in teaching. The same was true of the lefties (mainly English and drama) and pro-European centrist types (languages and geography).

    The teachers generally avoided racism but filled their boots with homophobia, but then that was part of wider culture then, and the students were worse - I’m taking late 80s early 90s.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Yes. And that wasn't the first, nor the last time that I've been shown to be wrong on PB and admitted as much. Not that doing so drew any kind of line under that debate with some of PB's more psychologically interesting posters.
    Wow, when was that? So you admit you were wrong about it?

    If so, have you considered *why* you were wrong, and how reading and trusting 'alternative' news sources can lead you into all sorts of dark alleys?

    Personally, I'd suggest someone who willingly spread Putin's poison about MH17 displays many 'interesting' psychological traits....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    Much as I hate to say it, both of the Telegraph's angles on this are correct. Keeping to 20mpg on a cycle is a lot easier because you have to put in quite noticeable physical effort to go faster, it's not hard to keep from going way, way over the posted limit (which is, of course, all that's required for bikes, unlike powered vehicles).

    Car drivers have a harder time, particularly EVs with their lack of feedback and high acceleration.

    Personally I find most 20mph limits quite dangerous. I usually get around on a 125cc class scooter, which have the interesting attributes of being very lightweight and possessing crazy low-speed acceleration. It's very easy to jump from 20 to 30 in a second or so, and the CVT transmission on scooters provides much less feedback in the way of engine revs than a geared system.

    The result is I spend much more time than I am comfortable with looking at the speedo in 20mph zones. My nearest city, Glasgow, is apparently planing to introduce 20mph limits on over 4000 streets. I'll probably give up going there, it's already hostile territory for vehicles, even more so for scooters and motorcycles than cars.
    I've never managed 20mpg on my bike.

    0gpm would be more like it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservative vote share in London was similar to 2019.

    I’d expect the Conservatives now to hold Harrow East, Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green. Places like Two Cities, Kensington & Bayswater, Chingford, however, are gone.
    My fag packet calculation was hold everything from Finchley up (13 seats), one or two more possible if worked very hard but I fancy resource would be better extended elsewhere
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    DougSeal said:

    If HYUFD is only a “supposed” Tory then I’m not sure the real thing can possibly exist.
    I believe HYUFD is held in a temperature-controlled glass case in Paris as the SI unit for "The Tory". Toryism is measured on a sliding scale from 0% to 100% HYUFD.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited May 2024
    viewcode said:

    I believe HYUFD is held in a temperature-controlled glass case in Paris as the SI unit for "The Tory". Toryism is measured on a sliding scale from 0% to 100% HYUFD.
    I would have agreed, but it seems he has been allowed to decay to just 75%?

    Or maybe they have moved to a higher standard of purity?
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    kjh said:

    My phone is also in my bag. I do use a speedo, but only use it for distance measuring. It is plain dangerous to keep looking down at the speedo so people suggesting that clearly don't cycle as that is asking for a collision or hitting a pot hole and being thrown off. Admittedly I don't present a threat to speed limits anyway. I don't cycle much in built up areas and if I do I will cycle slowly (10 kph). On country lanes (if flat and with good tarmac) I will cycle between 20 - 35 kph and that will have been on unrestricted country lanes.
    I cycle and look at the speedometer. No more dangerous than in a car. Unless I am off touring somewhere I know where the potholes are.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    Eabhal said:

    Got round to watching the Susan Hall speech and then the booing and heckling of Khan.

    All together deeply unsavoury. I wonder if a Tory Grandee (perhaps Cameron?) should step in and calm things down a bit, and the Government should look at the kind of protection Khan has got. I think he could be in serious personal peril.

    Khan has 24 hour protection as he faces credible death threats from both Islamists and the Far Right. He faces constant danger but I believe does have good protection. I think he is an extremely brave man, personally.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    IanB2 said:

    I would have agreed, but it seems he has been allowed to decay to just 75%?
    Possibly. Just as the SI unit for a metre was changed from a platinum rod to a number of wavelengths of light, they are working on an AI replacement for "The HYUFD". But until then we have to stick with the original archetype.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    IanB2 said:

    Fancy putting a full stop after Mr, Morris; call yourself British?
    Well done for making the effort to read Mrs Dancer's posts! I really can't be arsed to dig out whatever she's replying to in order to make sense of them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    There are few things weirder than a party of aged German cycling enthusiasts, such as the group who have just pitched up in their matching blue lycra outfits
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021

    I think the question now is the size of Labour's majority - from barebones to landslide of 97 style, these results show us there is neither a tidal wave of enthusiastic popular support for Lab nor a universal loathing of the Tories sufficient to take us outside of this on the upside nor any sign of recovery or 'stop the reds' sufficient to take us past the downside

    It was only a couple of years ago that the conventional wisdom on PB was that getting any sort of majority would be too steep a mountain for Labour to climb.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275
    ydoethur said:

    I have just seen Suella Braverman's interview.

    It is true Sunak needs to bear blame for these results.

    It is also true Braverman's a total failure as a politician as well as a pretty nasty piece of work who thinks laws don't apply to her and needs to stfu.

    Blaming policies allows Conservative politicians to ignore that the main problem the Conservatives have is the mentality and behaviour of Conservative politicians.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2024
    OllyT said:

    It was only a couple of years ago that the conventional wisdom on PB was that getting any sort of majority would be too steep a mountain for Labour to climb.
    Obviously one can only speculate based on how things are, not how they were. If conditions change then so shall speculation but time is very short now for that
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    Blaming policies allows Conservative politicians to ignore that the main problem the Conservatives have is the mentality and behaviour of Conservative politicians.
    There is something rotten in the state of the candidates’ list. Too many are morally and:or financially corrupt.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Just outside the restaurant in the piazza there is a memorial to a batch of young Italians shot in reprisal for some partisan act in 1944. References to German brutality in the inscription. Must make being a German tourist difficult at times
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    TimS said:

    I don’t think my school was particularly right wing. It’s just the teachers were very direct in sharing their opinions on things and including them in teaching. The same was true of the lefties (mainly English and drama) and pro-European centrist types (languages and geography).

    The teachers generally avoided racism but filled their boots with homophobia, but then that was part of wider culture then, and the students were worse - I’m taking late 80s early 90s.
    The two teachers I had who were most overt about their political beliefs were a history and maths teacher who were both quite right wing and would enjoy needling left wing pupils. It was mostly good humoured and I don't think they converted anyone. Perhaps I didn't notice the left wing bias of other teachers as I shared it but I think it was more that the right wing teachers enjoyed political debate. They were both excellent teachers, incidentally - the history teacher in particular was probably the best teacher in the school.
    Sadly there was a lot of low level homophobia at the school, it was endemic in the late 80s/early 90s and the gay kids didn't have a great time. Racism wasn't a big deal as I recall, but the school was more than 99% white.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Bipedal robot that isn't Boston Dynamics

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpNid_rWDnI
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275
    AlsoLei said:

    Not sure that Braverman is capable of posing as much of a threat as she thinks - she has an article in the Telegraph today saying that Rishi is in a hole and should therefore get shovelling. Clearly a political genius.


    (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/04/local-election-results-suella-braverman-rishi-sunak/)
    Not to mention that you dig with a spade not a shovel.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Au contraire. Jobless Andy Street has six months until the general election to find a safe seat, in which case he will be nailed on for the shadow cabinet with a fair chance of replacing Rishi when he steps down as leader.
    Isn't it more likely that he will just put his feet up and spend more time with his partner. They are both getting on a bit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    IanB2 said:

    There are few things weirder than a party of aged German cycling enthusiasts, such as the group who have just pitched up in their matching blue lycra outfits

    I have a funny story about naked German Scouts in Knoydart...

    They had a brilliant octagonal tent though. It could sleep one person to an edge, and had a hole in the middle that allowed smoke from a central campfire to go through. Not seen one like it since.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited May 2024
    Eleven men and one woman, all stick thin. From their conversation I think they have cycled all the way here.

    And they're Austrian, not German
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    IanB2 said:

    Just outside the restaurant in the piazza there is a memorial to a batch of young Italians shot in reprisal for some partisan act in 1944. References to German brutality in the inscription. Must make being a German tourist difficult at times

    I travelled by bus through the Sudetenland in 2004, with a group of Bavarians. I bet several were thinking “we used to live here.”

    At that time, the area was a wilderness, plainly never having recovered from the mass expulsion.
This discussion has been closed.