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The enduring legacy of Liz Truss – politicalbetting.com
The enduring legacy of Liz Truss – politicalbetting.com
Patrick English, YouGov’s Director of Political Analytics, has done some sterling work in identifying this trend from the locals.
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Also, interest rates are not going the right way at all. Quite the contrary. And with food and oil prices set to soar, that won't change.
(also FPT… 95% of cyclists do have a device capable of measuring speed on their bike, it’s called a smartphone. And the 5% that don’t are called Bert, aged 90, and use the bike for cycling to Spar and church at 6mph. I’m a fairly fervent cycling advocate but I tend to think speed limits should apply to us too.)
Is it not true that you could draw any number of 'trend' lines through those charts?
Not entirely Truss's fault- interest rates couldn't remain at minimal forever. But the height of the peak is her memorial.
The curious thing is that home buyers seem to largely be sucking it up.
He might be forced to abdicate a la James VII and II, but just a delay might be enough to stall it.
William - William I'm not so sure about. He seems a much less forceful character and much less devoted to his own sense of worth.
Evidence supporting theory was presented to Dominic Raab, then the Foreign Secretary – but ‘was ignored’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/04/us-shared-gobsmacking-lab-leak-evidence-with-uk-pandemic/ (£££)
Newsagents report rocketing demand for the Sunday Telegraph in the Camden area.
She reckons people would have forgiven or forgotten Boris’ partying but not the Liz Truss budget.
(1) Reform still don't party
(2) They won't match their polling
(3) Polling generally good, and suggests the Tories are in 26-28% zone atm (not 20-22%) and YouGov are still off
(4) However, the seat count could be made worse by tactical voting
(5) They will clearly suffer a very very heavy defeat, but won't be wiped out
(6) Labour will probably get a moderate landslide- with the LDs doing a tad better than expected
I don't believe the hung parliament stuff. Figures yesterday point to me at Labour clocking 400+ seats
No one from the party that came 2nd in the Locals.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732
I think a lot will be extending their mortgage terms.
Plus their parents or adult children.
By the same token, when the Tories launched RTB, liberalised banks to lend and had lots of houses built in the 80s, they did very well. Right now, lots of young people can't really afford them, so they're not.
The secret is to ease access for people to good homes at good and low prices. And then leave them alone.
As the dust settles, everyone’s got their own views of what’s gone wrong. Many Tories want to go righter, harder.
For me, I like to see the past few days as a repudiation of the chaos the Tories unleashed in 2016.
Earlier this week the News Agents podcast released an edition looking at the continuing Brexit omertà, particularly surprising in an election week when the new EU importation rules came in. (Our proportion of trade with the EU has actually increased, despite Brexit.) They interviewed an FT journalist who’s view was, in a nutshell, that, yes of course the whole world has been affected by the impact of Covid and Ukraine, but Brexit has proved an extra drag on the UK thanks to the trade barriers Johnson and Frost chose to erect with the EU (we are now the worst performing G7 economy). But he did point out that Brexit, as an issue in and of itself, was a less salient issue for voters now.
A few weeks ago I read an interview with Gruff Rhys, frontman of the psychedelic Welsh rockers the Super Furry Animals. He said something along the lines of ‘There were always tempting arguments for Brexit from a left-wing perspective, but it would always be really a project of the right.’
And that’s what we have seen; a government giving a hard Brexit that has pleased very few people as it has become a reality, that is widely unpopular and becomes more so as sector after sector becomes increasingly hard hit by our foolish erection of trade barriers with our nearest and largest trading partners.
And all the actions of the past few years, the parade of Prime Ministers, the culture wars, the ideological contortions, the small boats and Rwanda, the Trussterfuck and the Kamikwasi mortgage hikes, all flow from Brexit impossibility of delivering what people thought they were voting for. Beyond the dogmatic sovereigntists and nostalgic elderly, no-one is happy.
For most voters ‘Brexit’ may be done, but what they have decisively rejected this week is the party that delivered it and the real consequences the insane project has begat and the baleful, ongoing consequences we are living with.
And Labour have to try and mitigate the damage.
I’ve said for ages that Brexit would become a Pyrrhic victory for the Tories, I think events over the past few days support that.
In any event, I doubt they could get a majority in Parliament. There are still a few principled Tory MPs, whether moderate or right wing.
I do think things are more likely to get worse for the Tories than better, the longer they wait though.
- results show the polls were wrong and it’s very close
- Railings and thrasher, the country’s top experts, predict that we’re heading for a hung parliament
- It’s all to play for, we need to get behind our PM. Labour hadn’t sealed the deal
- We’re focusing on the priorities of the British people: continuing to improve the economy, and stopping the boats (Labour are apparently proposing an amnesty for all illegal immigrants)
Good stuff Mark. Call an election and seal another 5 glorious years!
And now we’re back to the life raft of Tees Valley ! zzzzzzz
Legally it is doable.
Politically it would be… unwise
You say I am partisan, and it is true I would prefer to see a Labour Government over this current outrage, but to be honest I would be happy to see any party, with the exception of Reform and the Workers Party replace this shower.
You list your objections which are essentially ideological issues. You state you and your family would be worse off under a Labour Government, which is a fair analysis to conclude, however were you and your family enhanced by Truss's budget. Were you and your family enhanced by spending £2m per refugee on removals to Rwanda. Did you or your family benefit from the PPE scandal or from Boris Johnson's parties. I suspect the answers are all no.
It was sold as reducing immigration without the fine print that immigration would in fact increase.
It was sold as increased consumer choice without the fine print of lower standards and higher cost.
It was sold as saving the NHS while waiting lists increase and staff shortages multiply.
And yes, the Tories own all of it...
The Truss budget was Black Wednesday on steroids, and even worse entirely self inflicted. It absolutely immolated Tory credibility. Unlike the real Black Wednesday though there was no glimmer of an upside. Truss and Kwarteng detonated a hydrogen bomb on the household budgets of middle England and the Tories are radioactive to most voters in consequence.
I think that was spot on.
You can see why he had difficulty choosing which one to go for.
Either way the Tories are as dead as a dodo and may well have as many seats
Fiscal incompetence? Tick
Performative cruelty? Tick
Endless culture war? Tick
There is no currently no good reason for vote for these halfwits, and may, many reasons to vote against them
After Sunak and particularly Hunt took over we returned to trend. The gas subsidy, whilst still large, was costed and time limited. What was also happening, however, is that the burst of international inflation that had caused the spike in gas prices became much more generalised as fuel costs drove everything else higher, particularly food. This meant interest rates rose internationally as well as here.
The myth is that the current rise in mortgage rates as people come to the end of their fixed rates has anything to do with Truss, her economic incompetence or is in any way out of the norm. It's just not true. After more than a decade of incredibly low interest rates following the GFC bond rates have returned to the lower end of normal and mortgages have moved accordingly. Hard for those who had got used to practically free money but inevitable. And absolutely nothing to do with Truss.
Government legislating to further extend its time in office would be more than unwise.
https://x.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1786863809933557844
without the consent of the Lords. I think that provision survived the FTPA chaos. You’ll forgive me for not checking on a beautiful day like this.
"The Liberal Democrats beat you!" - @TrevorPTweets
"No they didn't..." - @Mark_J_Harper
The transport secretary rejects claims that the Tories are "squatting" in No 10, after winning fewer council seats than the Lib Dems.
People aren’t stupid and, although he has a point about Railings and Thrasher, these results were a calamity for the Tories. An utter disaster. I doubt even he believes what he is saying.
Robert Colville has a point when he says pro development Tory mayors have done well. The Tory way back isn’t as a UKIP tribute act, but is as a pro growth pro development party.
Quite frankly if labour propose an amnesty for all illegal immigrants then so what is my view At least it does something to address the problem and the expense.
@9andrewmcdonald
New: John Swinney faces a leadership contest after all
Graeme McCormick, a veteran SNP activist and long-time leadership critic, tells me he has the required nominations to trigger a contest
SNP hierarchy hoped Swinney was on course for a coronation when noms close noon Monday
But in any event, the Tories have been in power for a decade and a half. 'Not really their fault' just isn't going to work as a political argument, irrespective of the economics.
Black Wednesday was no different - and the economy under Major far better.
It's like 'under Callaghan, we couldn't even bury our dead'. Both of them were More Complicated Than That, but they point to a wider malaise.
Unfair? Yes. But a politician complaining about the unfairness of public perception (which Rishi is said to do a fair bit) is like a fish complaining about the wetness of water.
So, yeah, it may well happen next time.
I actually think that Hunt is doing a reasonable job given the circumstances and the remit. He’s the guy sent to the poker game to win back all the money but finds that his hand has been dealt with Tarot cards and they are all marked Death.
See what China is doing to Boeing
It doesn't involve tax giveaways.
As it were
Governments affect the mood.
A mean spirited nasty government like this Tory one just puts a downer on all of us.
The Labour one of '97 had the opposite effect. The UK felt freer kinder and more progressive.
Does anyone think governments are going to affect our mortgage costs or make us individually richer or poorer?
Labour strategists are baffled by the decision of the Tory rebels. “They must be innumerate,” a Starmer aide said. “If you look at the difference between the police and crime commissioner vote and the Street vote in Birmingham you can see what a drag Sunak is on the ticket for them. If they’re paying attention to the numbers, they should be getting rid of him. The guy’s a loser.”
Even Houchen, a close ally of Johnson, is no great fan of Sunak. When the prime minister flew to the Tees Valley for a victory rally, the body language between them was awkward and Houchen said he “forgot” to wear a blue rosette. He then issued a statement saying he would “absolutely” work with a prime minister Starmer. “Ben was putting as much distance between them as possible,” a minister said. “Apparently he was pissed off that Rishi turned up at all.”
Street too ran on a personal ticket with no mentions of Sunak on his literature. “Andy absolutely despises him,” a minister said. A former No 10 aide explained: “When Rishi was chancellor, Andy found him haughty, arrogant, patronising and dismissive when he wanted money for things.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-celebrating-keir-starmers-next-steps-to-no-10-b0z6dxkg3
This is the lunacy. Plan. Rwanda. Tax cuts. Priorities. All rejected massively and comprehensively. So stop saying them. Say something different.
This is not a mid term protest vote. This is the end. People are not waiting for Rwanda to start or for interest rates to fall. Thursday did not prove that the race is close and that Labour haven’t sealed the deal. Harper may as well say “I am a Fish” in response to every question to sound more sane.
Forget waiting for a black swan. Pivot now and pivot hard. Away from the failed mess. Give people something new to concentrate on. Campaign on bringing back hanging for small boat refugees. Campaign on forcing people off sick notes into building new prisons which you then lock them up in. Campaign on mandatory skirts for girls in schools.
Whatever. Just change the script.
One more push!
Unchecked migration and loose border control will not have a happy ending.
Also, FYI, they have not u-turned completely on their proposed workers reforms. Even this week’s FT piece didn’t suggest that. Without wishing to get into arguments from authority I’m an employment lawyer and have to keep up with these things. In fact (polishes nails) I was quoted in City AM on the matter (bows)
Just as the rather excellent stewardship of Ken Clarke in the years to 97 counted for naught, it seems likely that the rather more modest but reasonably sensible stewardship of Hunt is not winning back any votes for the Tories, as we have seen over the last 3 days. Them's the breaks. Politics is a tough trade.
Tory MP yesterday suggested they stand on a joint Tory/Reform ticket at the GE
So the Commons still needs the Lords consent to extend itself beyond 5 years as it would have before 1911.
This Tory argument — from Tim Shipman’s morning email — relies on completely ignoring the fact that Labour just won multiple mayoralties, including re-election for Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan.
I know you’ve got to have a line, but it helps if it’s at least reality-adjacent.
This assessment from Conservative Home seems more in touch with the actual results.
Every light on the dashboard is red, and there is (at maximum) eight months to change anyone’s mind before a general election.
The trouble is Rwanda is expensive performative nonsense that doesn't touch the sides. We need some pan-European remedy, because you could rightly comment that it is equally chaotic in Europe. We need to sit down with the EU and ask what they are planning to do with boats from Africa and Turkey and how can we help? The current Government refuses to engage with Europe over practical solutions