I of course want rid of the Tories so don’t want them to change leader.
Not scientific by any means but I’ve noticed a marked change of opinion amongst friends . We were all so relieved to see the back of Johnson . And thought Sunak would be much better . He’s just loathed now .
It’s noticeable how Sunak who started out viewed more favourably than his party is now plumbing the same depths of unpopularity.
Sunak's problems largely stem from having almost no knowledge of how most people in the UK live - the pressures they face, the aspirations they have - and of how things work for them. He has never lived anything close to an ordinary life. What's really strange is that he has never had any interest in finding out. But he's also not a narcissist or a grifter. So I genuinely don't see why he got into politics.
I think that's a ridiculous statement. His background is far more ordinary than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg. Comfortable yes and his parents sent him to a top school where he has since been a very high achiever.
So far as I'm aware his parents were not millionaires but came here as aspirational refugees. He may be rather nerdy but I seriously question if you would make that remark about someone who was white.
I would make that argument about anyone who had progressed seamlessly from an elite UK public school to Oxbridge to Silicon Valley to the City, while marrying the daughter of a multi-billionaire along the way.
Well okay then. I take the point that he hasn't really faced any major setbacks that we know of. But can we not also consider that he got where he did through a lot of hard work? He was head boy of a fiercely academic school, he got a Fulbright scholarship to the best Business school in America. They don't just give those things away. He appears to take after his aspirational immigrant parents. I get the sense that some people and not just the old money sort, are more comfortable with chillaxer Cameron and 'effortless superiority' Boris than with 'arriviste' Rishi.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
Seriously, you are right that Brits don't like queue-jumpers but I honestly don't believe that is the principle objection of most of those who get worked up about the boats. What I hear is stuff like 'the country is full up', 'we are being swamped', etc. Now those may be valid points but as Dura points out 96% of immigration is legal and controllable by the government.
Only my opinion of course - I'd love to see some polling on this.
(* For the avoidance of doubt, this is a joke)
I don't think I've ever seen a mis-apostrophised comment BTL in the DM or on FB, etc. about the immigration system being "unfair". The simple objection from that sort is that there is far too much of it.
The extent of the lies and coverup exceed those in the Post Office scandal.
And it seems almost incontrovertible that unauthorised - and secret - medical experiments were deliberately done on a large number of individuals.
The ST front page suggests a £10 billion compensation fund will shortly be announced. Whether this is to dish Labour or compensate those affected (at least, the ones still living) is a question for another day.
It's at this point simply a measure of justice, which has been long delayed.
A Post Office style enquiry is also needed. The coverup has extended over four decades; it's only this year that we have conclusive evidence madd public that illegal medical trials were deliberately carried out on a large scale.
We need to know how government brushed it under the carpet for so long. The Civil Service has failed massively; but was it at the behest of government ?
I of course want rid of the Tories so don’t want them to change leader.
Not scientific by any means but I’ve noticed a marked change of opinion amongst friends . We were all so relieved to see the back of Johnson . And thought Sunak would be much better . He’s just loathed now .
It’s noticeable how Sunak who started out viewed more favourably than his party is now plumbing the same depths of unpopularity.
Sunak's problems largely stem from having almost no knowledge of how most people in the UK live - the pressures they face, the aspirations they have - and of how things work for them. He has never lived anything close to an ordinary life. What's really strange is that he has never had any interest in finding out. But he's also not a narcissist or a grifter. So I genuinely don't see why he got into politics.
I think that's a ridiculous statement. His background is far more ordinary than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg. Comfortable yes and his parents sent him to a top school where he has since been a very high achiever.
So far as I'm aware his parents were not millionaires but came here as aspirational refugees. He may be rather nerdy but I seriously question if you would make that remark about someone who was white.
I would make that argument about anyone who had progressed seamlessly from an elite UK public school to Oxbridge to Silicon Valley to the City, while marrying the daughter of a multi-billionaire along the way.
Well okay then. I take the point that he hasn't really faced any major setbacks that we know of. But can we not also consider that he got where he did through a lot of hard work? He was head boy of a fiercely academic school, he got a Fulbright scholarship to the best Business school in America. They don't just give those things away. He appears to take after his aspirational immigrant parents. I get the sense that some people and not just the old money sort, are more comfortable with chillaxer Cameron and 'effortless superiority' Boris than with 'arriviste' Rishi.
The only one I'm uncomfortable with of those three is Boris Johnson. That's because he is lying, bone idle, grifter who is unfit to hold any kind of office. I just see no evidence that Sunak has even the remotest understanding of the way most people in the UK live their lives. That's not because he is of Asian descent, it's because he has a profound lack of curiosity.
Stock market up whilst house prices remain pretty stagnant. How much longer will the good news last?
And interest on savings accounts has risen from derisory to substantial. It's hard to think of a more efficient way to take money out of the pockets of hard-working middle-aged families and lavish it on elderly 'savers'.
Here come the sad losers blaming it all on pensioners, lazy grasping green cheese arseholes.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
I of course want rid of the Tories so don’t want them to change leader.
Not scientific by any means but I’ve noticed a marked change of opinion amongst friends . We were all so relieved to see the back of Johnson . And thought Sunak would be much better . He’s just loathed now .
It’s noticeable how Sunak who started out viewed more favourably than his party is now plumbing the same depths of unpopularity.
Sunak's problems largely stem from having almost no knowledge of how most people in the UK live - the pressures they face, the aspirations they have - and of how things work for them. He has never lived anything close to an ordinary life. What's really strange is that he has never had any interest in finding out. But he's also not a narcissist or a grifter. So I genuinely don't see why he got into politics.
I think that's a ridiculous statement. His background is far more ordinary than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg. Comfortable yes and his parents sent him to a top school where he has since been a very high achiever.
So far as I'm aware his parents were not millionaires but came here as aspirational refugees. He may be rather nerdy but I seriously question if you would make that remark about someone who was white.
I would make that argument about anyone who had progressed seamlessly from an elite UK public school to Oxbridge to Silicon Valley to the City, while marrying the daughter of a multi-billionaire along the way.
Well okay then. I take the point that he hasn't really faced any major setbacks that we know of. But can we not also consider that he got where he did through a lot of hard work? He was head boy of a fiercely academic school, he got a Fulbright scholarship to the best Business school in America. They don't just give those things away. He appears to take after his aspirational immigrant parents. I get the sense that some people and not just the old money sort, are more comfortable with chillaxer Cameron and 'effortless superiority' Boris than with 'arriviste' Rishi.
They're both extremely wealthy. The difference is perhaps rather (as has been suggested by a few commentators) Cameron doesn't have the illusion that he can control everything in life, after the experience with his son ?
Admirable business people - in whom such confidence can be an asset - do not usually make admirable politicians.
Stock market up whilst house prices remain pretty stagnant. How much longer will the good news last?
And interest on savings accounts has risen from derisory to substantial. It's hard to think of a more efficient way to take money out of the pockets of hard-working middle-aged families and lavish it on elderly 'savers'.
Here come the sad losers blaming it all on pensioners, lazy grasping green cheese arseholes.
They're not blaming you, malcolm. They're just coming for your money.
Sunak’s problem isn’t that he’s privileged, it’s that he doesn’t really have a story. I, like others, am still a little nonplussed as to why he got into politics. Beyond the fact that maybe he just wanted to be in charge. In which case, fine, but he should be able to convincingly mold a narrative as to why.
Maybe it’s because Truss prompted such derision with her “I went to an awful comp in the 80s” shtick.
I of course want rid of the Tories so don’t want them to change leader.
Not scientific by any means but I’ve noticed a marked change of opinion amongst friends . We were all so relieved to see the back of Johnson . And thought Sunak would be much better . He’s just loathed now .
It’s noticeable how Sunak who started out viewed more favourably than his party is now plumbing the same depths of unpopularity.
Sunak's problems largely stem from having almost no knowledge of how most people in the UK live - the pressures they face, the aspirations they have - and of how things work for them. He has never lived anything close to an ordinary life. What's really strange is that he has never had any interest in finding out. But he's also not a narcissist or a grifter. So I genuinely don't see why he got into politics.
I think that's a ridiculous statement. His background is far more ordinary than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg. Comfortable yes and his parents sent him to a top school where he has since been a very high achiever.
So far as I'm aware his parents were not millionaires but came here as aspirational refugees. He may be rather nerdy but I seriously question if you would make that remark about someone who was white.
I would make that argument about anyone who had progressed seamlessly from an elite UK public school to Oxbridge to Silicon Valley to the City, while marrying the daughter of a multi-billionaire along the way.
Well okay then. I take the point that he hasn't really faced any major setbacks that we know of. But can we not also consider that he got where he did through a lot of hard work? He was head boy of a fiercely academic school, he got a Fulbright scholarship to the best Business school in America. They don't just give those things away. He appears to take after his aspirational immigrant parents. I get the sense that some people and not just the old money sort, are more comfortable with chillaxer Cameron and 'effortless superiority' Boris than with 'arriviste' Rishi.
Sunak was Senior Commoner Prefect at Winchester, and neither that nor the Prefect of Hall position is gained on academics or hard work. This is not to say he doesn't have skills, but the skills he has got may not be the ones you were thinking of.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
Which is all fair and good except Labour will be asking the Audit Office to look at Teesworks and that is smelly enough that I can smell it from the fair side of Tees Valley
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
Morning all. The calm after the storm descends. No more yardsticks until the GE, unless a by election is called but we are running out of time for that via the recall process, no recalls within 6 months of the last possible GE date
(1) Reform still don't party (2) They won't match their polling (3) Polling generally good, and suggests the Tories are in 26-28% zone atm (not 20-22%) and YouGov are still off (4) However, the seat count could be made worse by tactical voting (5) They will clearly suffer a very very heavy defeat, but won't be wiped out (6) Labour will probably get a moderate landslide- with the LDs doing a tad better than expected
I don't believe the hung parliament stuff. Figures yesterday point to me at Labour clocking 400+ seats
Pretty much agree with that analysis.
I would also add that Labour did lose votes on the Gaza issue on Thursday (Street would have lost by over 50,000 if it were not for that). I predict the issue will have far less salience by the GE and do little more than depress the Labour vote a bit in a few safe seats.
Reform, on the other hand, still have the capacity to cost the Tories a few seats because it looks like Sunak is staying and he is not the sort of leader that is going to bring Reform voters back into the Tory fold particularly if it still looks a lost cause by then.
Can Harper stop telling us what our priorities are. And clinging onto the projections to a GE are ridiculous. The Lib Dems aren’t going to poll 17% and the independents aren’t going to do aswell .
And now we’re back to the life raft of Tees Valley ! zzzzzzz
When faced with a question on being beaten by the Lib Dems he then said “local elections are not representative of what will happen in a general election”!
Actually there is a reasonable chance that the Lib Dems do poll in the high teens. They are generally ignored by the media, but at election times they have to be reported fairly, and usually they benefit from the attention. So coming into the campaign on around 12-13% they could easily climb. Unlike Reform they have the capacity to wage a ground war in their target seats, so gains like Winchester and Cheltenham in Wessex are looking pretty certain. I would say therefore that it is more likely than not that the Lib Dems match their 1997 performance and more than double their seat tally. If the Tories hit meltdown then more seats in places like Surrey and Glos come into play too and that credibility can enhance their poll rating in a positive circle. The media has a limited attention span, and after the 53rd "Starmer on course for a landslide as Sunak is yesterday´s cold mince" story, they may well cast around for a fresh angle. "Lib Dems poised to make pincer movement on the Tories in their target seats" is one such story.
That used to be said, but isn’t the experience of their performance since 2010.
But LibDem national VI, and actual vote, doesn’t really matter. As I’ve said before, if LibDems in Labour target seats vote Labour but Labour voters in (the fewer) LibDem targets vote LibDem, the LD vote share goes down but their seat tally goes up.
The LibDems just beat the Tories in seat count when their poll VI is about 10% and their estimated NEV from Thursday about 16%, when the Tories are on 20-25% and 25% respectively. That’s what should really worry the Tories.
Agreed that this has been the case, I'm suggesting a reversion to the previous pattern as memories of the c-word fade.
Sunak’s problem isn’t that he’s privileged, it’s that he doesn’t really have a story. I, like others, am still a little nonplussed as to why he got into politics.
He went from unelected nobody to PM in just over 7 years which would seem to indicate that he is fucking awesome at politics yet he is hopeless at the job of being PM.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
I am not sure it's the offshore processing people have a problem with.
It's the fact the Rwanda scheme:
is terrible value for money;
will only "solve" the problem for a tiny number of people;
doesn't act as a deterrent;
means that even if somebody is a legitimate asylum seeker, they cannot stay in the UK, which is not only morally abhorrent, it breaks our international obligations that we helped to found after WW2;
will I suspect result in deaths of people fleeing the Congo and other such countries;
@KateEMcCann Asked repeatedly whether the Tories need to change direction, offer something new or rethink after the local elections Mark Harper tells @TimesRadio that no, the right thing to do is to continue delivering the same message because that’s what voters want. Asked if this stance was arrogant Harper said no.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
There are two major reports - in the Indy and the FT - saying that Russia is intent on attacking all of Europe, sabotage, hacking, explosions, assassinations. The next five years of Labour might see us more or less at war with Russia
See what China is doing to Boeing
But what is Russia's end plan in all of this? To make the world as miserable place to live as they currently live in? That's not achievable. By weakening the West, all they do is drag themselves down to. They've no modern industry or technological base to speak of. Where will they get their stolen iPhones, BMWs and Yachts if they win? They never think these things through. Excepting Tetris, I honestly can't think of anything they've achieved in the last hundred years that the West didn't do first and doesn't do better. Maybe Gulags.... maybe.....
If they do what they say they'll do, they'll knock themselves (And the rest of the world) back to the 1850s (if they're lucky).
Sunak’s problem isn’t that he’s privileged, it’s that he doesn’t really have a story. I, like others, am still a little nonplussed as to why he got into politics.
He went from unelected nobody to PM in just over 7 years which would seem to indicate that he is fucking awesome at politics yet he is hopeless at the job of being PM.
He introduced Eat Out to Spread Covid About. That is more than enough to explain his political ability (or lack thereof).
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
What does she mean "who would open our borders". SHE opened our borders. Our borders are open.
Is there something about reality which the remaining Tories refuse to engage with?
Our borders should be open, and to maintain that situation you need to have a means of regulating the flow of inward migration to ensure continued public support. That will require you to on occasion squeeze the supply and at others to encourage it. When you are doing the squeezing it is essential you don’t appear too gleeful about it. Unfortunately Suella gives the impression of being entirely too pleased about enmiserating the lives of the desperate.
Apocalyptic prognostications of doom attending the election of the opposition are alas par for the course. It’s part of the terms of trade Suella though gives too much impression of being entirely in earnest rather than just engaging in political knockabout. Lord Howard was accused of having something of the night about him, with Braverman there’s nothing but the night about her.
@KateEMcCann Asked repeatedly whether the Tories need to change direction, offer something new or rethink after the local elections Mark Harper tells @TimesRadio that no, the right thing to do is to continue delivering the same message because that’s what voters want. Asked if this stance was arrogant Harper said no.
If they wanted it they would have voted for it . Harper seems to have got the hospital pass today and I wonder what he’s been promised to be the punchbag for Sunak .
On topic, the lesson from Black Wednesday (negative equity and repossession), GE2017 (dementia tax), Truss and the interest rate spike (very expensive mortages) is you don't touch people's houses. You just don't touch them.
By the same token, when the Tories launched RTB, liberalised banks to lend and had lots of houses built in the 80s, they did very well. Right now, lots of young people can't really afford them, so they're not.
The secret is to ease access for people to good homes at good and low prices. And then leave them alone.
Labour actually have a plan for that, if they have the balls to go big on it.
Labour will do precisely zero. In fact I think they will end up rolling back some of the first time buyer specific reliefs.
Interesting. Do you have a link for the rolling back proposal?
No link, there's just no money to do anything. Plus Labour just completely u turned on their workers "new deal". They've got form.
Their plan (which they've give very quiet on) would be net positive for the public finances. It doesn't involve tax giveaways.
But net negative for their image, pushing through planning reform in the UK is notoriously difficult. It's why successive governments since the 70s have all dodged the issue.
Unpopular but necessary decisions, if taken early enough, are exactly what you should be doing with a large majority.
If they went big on it, they could transform the housing market to the great benefit of the economy.
That's hopelessly naive. Labour will have the same local pressure as the Tories when it comes to planning reforms the same local councillors warning them of disaster if the reforms are pushed through and Keir doesn't strike me as the force of nature type to just do it anyway. He's fundamentally weak, even now his position on the next election is "I'm not sure but we're the red team not the blue one" which is fine to get into power but he'll have little to no mandate to actually do anything, just as Boris did in 2019 despite the huge 80 seat majority.
Yes, but what do you think of the idea itself ?
Does it matter?
Yes. "No one's going to do anything", and "nothing can be done" are two very different things.
I don't have any great hopes of the next government, but I'm not going to write them off before they start. And I'm interested in what they *could* do to make a difference.
I'm in the Keir Starmer is too weak to do anything about it camp. Not that it's impossible. For me house price reform needs much more joined up thinking which also includes immigration reform, some has already happened with the current government pushing up minimum income levels and barring dependents on certain types of visa, it needs to go further though and it should be regional, a visa for London should be upwards of £50k minimum income, a visa for somewhere in the north could be a lot lower. The issue of house prices and immigration fuelling rent price increases is very much a London and South East phenomenon. Barring non-elite universities from issuing visas, no longer allowing dependents and reducing the 2 year free hit to 6 months will all help. Labour will do none of these and have been making noises about the "cruelty" of the new dependents rule. So no, house prices, rent prices and planning will see no appreciable difference under Labour.
I actually think, in the end, it will be a future Tory party that does it because they will have no choice but to become that party to win again. They almost had it with Dave and George but just didn't go far enough and then May and Boris undid all of it.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
Stock market up whilst house prices remain pretty stagnant. How much longer will the good news last?
And interest on savings accounts has risen from derisory to substantial. It's hard to think of a more efficient way to take money out of the pockets of hard-working middle-aged families and lavish it on elderly 'savers'.
Here come the sad losers blaming it all on pensioners, lazy grasping green cheese arseholes.
Father Jack! Have you been at the metal polish again?
Apocalyptic prognostications of doom attending the election of the opposition are alas par for the course. It’s part of the terms of trade Suella though gives too much impression of being entirely in earnest rather than just engaging in political knockabout. Lord Howard was accused of having something of the night about him, with Braverman there’s nothing but the night about her.
I hate agreeing with Alastair Fucking Campbell, but he observed this morning that for the BBC, Cruella is the new Farage. They are giving her and her batshit theories the same promotional airtime they gave him, instead of ignoring them both like they should have done
(1) Reform still don't party (2) They won't match their polling (3) Polling generally good, and suggests the Tories are in 26-28% zone atm (not 20-22%) and YouGov are still off (4) However, the seat count could be made worse by tactical voting (5) They will clearly suffer a very very heavy defeat, but won't be wiped out (6) Labour will probably get a moderate landslide- with the LDs doing a tad better than expected
I don't believe the hung parliament stuff. Figures yesterday point to me at Labour clocking 400+ seats
Pretty much agree with that analysis.
I would also add that Labour did lose votes on the Gaza issue on Thursday (Street would have lost by over 50,000 if it were not for that). I predict the issue will have far less salience by the GE and do little more than depress the Labour vote a bit in a few safe seats.
Reform, on the other hand, still have the capacity to cost the Tories a few seats because it looks like Sunak is staying and he is not the sort of leader that is going to bring Reform voters back into the Tory fold particularly if it still looks a lost cause by then.
I also generally agree with Casino except I think 400 plus is too bullish on Lab (400 Is a thumping landslide already), I'd have them 350 to 400 (probably around 370 best guess) I think Gaza will be very relevant still, much as Iraq was in 2005, and as such Galloway will wreak havoc at the margins.
@KateEMcCann Asked repeatedly whether the Tories need to change direction, offer something new or rethink after the local elections Mark Harper tells @TimesRadio that no, the right thing to do is to continue delivering the same message because that’s what voters want. Asked if this stance was arrogant Harper said no.
Its the old joke about the man falling off a cliff. So far so good, so far so good.....
I of course want rid of the Tories so don’t want them to change leader.
Not scientific by any means but I’ve noticed a marked change of opinion amongst friends . We were all so relieved to see the back of Johnson . And thought Sunak would be much better . He’s just loathed now .
It’s noticeable how Sunak who started out viewed more favourably than his party is now plumbing the same depths of unpopularity.
Sunak's problems largely stem from having almost no knowledge of how most people in the UK live - the pressures they face, the aspirations they have - and of how things work for them. He has never lived anything close to an ordinary life. What's really strange is that he has never had any interest in finding out. But he's also not a narcissist or a grifter. So I genuinely don't see why he got into politics.
I think that's a ridiculous statement. His background is far more ordinary than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg. Comfortable yes and his parents sent him to a top school where he has since been a very high achiever.
So far as I'm aware his parents were not millionaires but came here as aspirational refugees. He may be rather nerdy but I seriously question if you would make that remark about someone who was white.
Don't be silly. Sunak went to Winchester College (fees £36k pa); there was nothing ordinary about his upbringing.
(And the accusation of implied racism was rather nasty btw.)
That's day boys. 52k for the full Monty
He was a day boy tbf
Don't think so. The website says dayboy status is 6th form only and he went at 13.
Well you know what they say about Brigitte Macron. Be aware that Sunak was a Trantite at school.
What I would like to know is why was the fee for a boarding pupil for 2023-24 set at £16,384 per term. That's exactly 2^14 pounds.
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
I think PR is totally essential to get proper representation of the voters in Parliament. If Brexit was about democracy, PR is essential as the next step.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
Mr. Valiant, the reconstitution of the USSR is what Putin's after.
After Ukraine, if Russia win, then Transnistra/Moldova is an obvious option. After that, he might go for the Baltic Tigers or Georgia (again). The -stans of central Asia *might* be a little safer as many have closer economic ties with China, but that may not be the case.
On Gaza, it would appear that Labour is having the most trouble in the seats it holds already - but it is having no impact or even a positive impact on the seats it hopes to gain.
So although it damages them in the safest seats, overall their approach is a net positive.
I would hypothesise that Labour's vote is the most efficient it has been for many years. The Tory vote on the other hand, is caught in a pincer movement - which was always a large possibility after Johnson's win in 2019.
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
I think PR is totally essential to get proper representation of the voters in Parliament. If Brexit was about democracy, PR is essential as the next step.
PR isn't about democracy. It is about giving all the power to the parties and allowing them to ignore the electorate permanently. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
I can see this being a popular narrative with PBs Tory and Labour contingents. Labour supporters because it justifies the Tories sticking with a shit leader who's threatening to take them to electoral oblivion, and PB Tories because it means they don't have to revisit their decision to support a manifestly inadequate leader. 'I was wrong' is not three words you ever see together on PB. It's more comforting psychologically to believe it was all Truss's fault.
It falls on me once again to state the bleeding obvious, that people will be voting (and are being polled) on whether they want Rishi Sunak to be their PM for another term, not Liz Truss.
Did you ever say you were wrong about MH17 ?
Yes. And that wasn't the first, nor the last time that I've been shown to be wrong on PB and admitted as much. Not that doing so drew any kind of line under that debate with some of PB's more psychologically interesting posters.
I think a caller to LBC last night summed up why the Tories are in so much trouble .
He didn’t want them to just lose but wanted the complete destruction of them in the hope they might come back as a saner party who can offer a reasonable opposition.
Many people have a long list of gripes with the Tories and want them to suffer badly .
I can never remember thinking a change of government would make me richer or poorer.
Governments affect the mood.
A mean spirited nasty government like this Tory one just puts a downer on all of us.
The Labour one of '97 had the opposite effect. The UK felt freer kinder and more progressive.
Does anyone think governments are going to affect our mortgage costs or make us individually richer or poorer?
Roger, that is because you are loaded and it will never impact you, for the plebs it is a big concern given they don't have the option to sell one of their assorted villas, art works , etc if they are a bit short now and again.
I've had mortgage rates of over 10% with Labour governments and less than 3% with Tory ones and vice versa........
.........But I've only ever had Tory ones sending vans round areas of London telling immigrants to "GO HOME' or sending asylum seekers to Rwanda or having a Home Secretary who wants to bring back hanging....
On Gaza, it would appear that Labour is having the most trouble in the seats it holds already - but it is having no impact or even a positive impact on the seats it hopes to gain.
So although it damages them in the safest seats, overall their approach is a net positive.
I would hypothesise that Labour's vote is the most efficient it has been for many years. The Tory vote on the other hand, is caught in a pincer movement - which was always a large possibility after Johnson's win in 2019.
They've lost a seat in the Commons over it. They've lost control of councils over it. It's impact overall is pending (and may end up net meh but its too early to say)
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
I think PR is totally essential to get proper representation of the voters in Parliament. If Brexit was about democracy, PR is essential as the next step.
PR isn't about democracy. It is about giving all the power to the parties and allowing them to ignore the electorate permanently. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
PR is totally about democracy. Unless you think under FPTP that it's good that most votes are irrelevant to the outcome?
PR would give a lot more consensus in politics and also support a wider range of views. I think Reform are badly under-represented in Parliament.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
The green foods need fat to be delicious (because they usually need it to make their nutrients absorbable). Avocado has its own fat of course.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
What does she mean "who would open our borders". SHE opened our borders. Our borders are open.
Is there something about reality which the remaining Tories refuse to engage with?
Yes. It doesn't accord with their ideology, which they have a lifelong psychological investment in. Reality must be wrong or the alternative is too terrible to consider.
There are two major reports - in the Indy and the FT - saying that Russia is intent on attacking all of Europe, sabotage, hacking, explosions, assassinations. The next five years of Labour might see us more or less at war with Russia
See what China is doing to Boeing
But what is Russia's end plan in all of this? To make the world as miserable place to live as they currently live in? That's not achievable. By weakening the West, all they do is drag themselves down to. They've no modern industry or technological base to speak of. Where will they get their stolen iPhones, BMWs and Yachts if they win? They never think these things through. Excepting Tetris, I honestly can't think of anything they've achieved in the last hundred years that the West didn't do first and doesn't do better. Maybe Gulags.... maybe.....
If they do what they say they'll do, they'll knock themselves (And the rest of the world) back to the 1850s (if they're lucky).
Their belief is in the cultural superiority of Russia.
That Russia is naturally The Greatest, and once all The Gay NATO Countries are destroyed/bow down properly, everything will be Awesome.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
We are putting (home made) Wild Garlic pesto on everything at the moment -very very green.
There are two major reports - in the Indy and the FT - saying that Russia is intent on attacking all of Europe, sabotage, hacking, explosions, assassinations. The next five years of Labour might see us more or less at war with Russia
See what China is doing to Boeing
But what is Russia's end plan in all of this? To make the world as miserable place to live as they currently live in? That's not achievable. By weakening the West, all they do is drag themselves down to. They've no modern industry or technological base to speak of. Where will they get their stolen iPhones, BMWs and Yachts if they win? They never think these things through. Excepting Tetris, I honestly can't think of anything they've achieved in the last hundred years that the West didn't do first and doesn't do better. Maybe Gulags.... maybe.....
If they do what they say they'll do, they'll knock themselves (And the rest of the world) back to the 1850s (if they're lucky).
They’re like the mopey incel at school, sneering at the jocks and their hangers on and occasionally planning a mass shooting because “that’ll show them”.
Whereas China is the silent nerd who the jocks ignore but who’s quietly planning their tech company launch for world domination, at which point they’ll become rather less quiet.
There's a myth being propagated here which is in serious danger of becoming acknowledged "fact". During Truss's brief tenure bond rates rose because the UK no longer seemed a safe bet with irresponsible spending and cuts in taxes. The major problem was the uncosted open ended cheque in respect of peoples' fuel bills, the tax cuts themselves were more modest.
After Sunak and particularly Hunt took over we returned to trend. The gas subsidy, whilst still large, was costed and time limited. What was also happening, however, is that the burst of international inflation that had caused the spike in gas prices became much more generalised as fuel costs drove everything else higher, particularly food. This meant interest rates rose internationally as well as here.
The myth is that the current rise in mortgage rates as people come to the end of their fixed rates has anything to do with Truss, her economic incompetence or is in any way out of the norm. It's just not true. After more than a decade of incredibly low interest rates following the GFC bond rates have returned to the lower end of normal and mortgages have moved accordingly. Hard for those who had got used to practically free money but inevitable. And absolutely nothing to do with Truss.
Whilst I think that's broadly fair, I think you're wrong with "...After Sunak and particularly Hunt took over we returned to trend...". I think there was an overhang from Truss: specifically her actions removed the trust (pun!) of the markets from the 2019-2024/5 government, so Sunak or Hunt's actions thereafter would not be as effective as before.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
We are putting (home made) Wild Garlic pesto on everything at the moment -very very green.
On topic, the lesson from Black Wednesday (negative equity and repossession), GE2017 (dementia tax), Truss and the interest rate spike (very expensive mortages) is you don't touch people's houses. You just don't touch them.
By the same token, when the Tories launched RTB, liberalised banks to lend and had lots of houses built in the 80s, they did very well. Right now, lots of young people can't really afford them, so they're not.
The secret is to ease access for people to good homes at good and low prices. And then leave them alone.
Labour actually have a plan for that, if they have the balls to go big on it.
Labour will do precisely zero. In fact I think they will end up rolling back some of the first time buyer specific reliefs.
Interesting. Do you have a link for the rolling back proposal?
No link, there's just no money to do anything. Plus Labour just completely u turned on their workers "new deal". They've got form.
Their plan (which they've give very quiet on) would be net positive for the public finances. It doesn't involve tax giveaways.
But net negative for their image, pushing through planning reform in the UK is notoriously difficult. It's why successive governments since the 70s have all dodged the issue.
Unpopular but necessary decisions, if taken early enough, are exactly what you should be doing with a large majority.
If they went big on it, they could transform the housing market to the great benefit of the economy.
That's hopelessly naive. Labour will have the same local pressure as the Tories when it comes to planning reforms the same local councillors warning them of disaster if the reforms are pushed through and Keir doesn't strike me as the force of nature type to just do it anyway. He's fundamentally weak, even now his position on the next election is "I'm not sure but we're the red team not the blue one" which is fine to get into power but he'll have little to no mandate to actually do anything, just as Boris did in 2019 despite the huge 80 seat majority.
Yes, but what do you think of the idea itself ?
Does it matter?
Yes. "No one's going to do anything", and "nothing can be done" are two very different things.
I don't have any great hopes of the next government, but I'm not going to write them off before they start. And I'm interested in what they *could* do to make a difference.
I'm in the Keir Starmer is too weak to do anything about it camp. Not that it's impossible. For me house price reform needs much more joined up thinking which also includes immigration reform, some has already happened with the current government pushing up minimum income levels and barring dependents on certain types of visa, it needs to go further though and it should be regional, a visa for London should be upwards of £50k minimum income, a visa for somewhere in the north could be a lot lower. The issue of house prices and immigration fuelling rent price increases is very much a London and South East phenomenon. Barring non-elite universities from issuing visas, no longer allowing dependents and reducing the 2 year free hit to 6 months will all help. Labour will do none of these and have been making noises about the "cruelty" of the new dependents rule. So no, house prices, rent prices and planning will see no appreciable difference under Labour.
I actually think, in the end, it will be a future Tory party that does it because they will have no choice but to become that party to win again. They almost had it with Dave and George but just didn't go far enough and then May and Boris undid all of it.
Regional visas is an interesting idea - but how do you enforce?
Reminds me of the time that, under Blair, they were planning to house asylum seekers outside London. One human rights group went to court, to claim that forcing people to live in Edinburgh was inhumane.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
Mr. Valiant, the reconstitution of the USSR is what Putin's after.
After Ukraine, if Russia win, then Transnistra/Moldova is an obvious option. After that, he might go for the Baltic Tigers or Georgia (again). The -stans of central Asia *might* be a little safer as many have closer economic ties with China, but that may not be the case.
The only problem is he's going to run out of time. He's over 70 already, and unlike Hitler, who once he started his foreign policy ventures in 1936 took only six to twelve months before starting something else, Putin seems to love to move slow.
Georgia in 2008 (and only partially), then Crimea in 2014 before Ukraine proper in 2022 (which isn't going to plan). At this rate, he might get to the Baltics about 2036, by which point he'll probably be dead.
I mean, he's moving slower than the announcement of Duke Nukem Forever in 1996 to its eventual release in 2010.
RUSSIA might follow this plan, but its not Putin's. He's nearly out of time.
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
I think PR is totally essential to get proper representation of the voters in Parliament. If Brexit was about democracy, PR is essential as the next step.
PR isn't about democracy. It is about giving all the power to the parties and allowing them to ignore the electorate permanently. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
PR is totally about democracy. Unless you think under FPTP that it's good that most votes are irrelevant to the outcome?
PR would give a lot more consensus in politics and also support a wider range of views. I think Reform are badly under-represented in Parliament.
Concensus is not good. Again it gives power to the parties not the people. It is concensus between the politicians based on their own beliefs and wishes, not the people.
I was strongly in favour of AV but any form of PR that assigns votes based on party share is thoroughly undemocratic.
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
I think PR is totally essential to get proper representation of the voters in Parliament. If Brexit was about democracy, PR is essential as the next step.
PR isn't about democracy. It is about giving all the power to the parties and allowing them to ignore the electorate permanently. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
Which leads us, in the usual circular manner, to STV.
There are few more powerful parties in world politics than the Tories and Labour here, or the Republicans and Democrats in the US, because they enjoy an oligopolistic political system with insurmountable barriers to entry.
From a competition policy point of view FPTP has the same effect as huge minimum capital requirements or bundled fixed telecom networks.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
We are putting (home made) Wild Garlic pesto on everything at the moment -very very green.
I’ll lump that into the vague salsa verde category of green leafy sauces with lots of garlic in them. Along with chimichurri and basil pesto (but not mint sauce- yuck).
PR leads to a government nobody voted for. FPTP at least leads to a government that a sizeable minority, usually a plurality, voted for.
So are you saying Jacinda Ardern wasn't elected?
Im not sure I follow. Strictly speaking she wasn’t elected PM because it’s a Westminster system, but putting aside that, she won an absolute majority under a PR system (the second time round).
I am not sure it's the offshore processing people have a problem with.
It's the fact the Rwanda scheme:
is terrible value for money;
will only "solve" the problem for a tiny number of people;
doesn't act as a deterrent;
means that even if somebody is a legitimate asylum seeker, they cannot stay in the UK, which is not only morally abhorrent, it breaks our international obligations that we helped to found after WW2;
will I suspect result in deaths of people fleeing the Congo and other such countries;
doesn't cure the backlog of asylum cases.
That omits its worst flaw which is its insane cruelty. To be a penniless foreigner in Africa without a support network of family and friends is a terrifying prospect, literally probably a fate worse than death, no matter what the legislation says. That's where any deterrent value comes from.
Sunak will go when he thinks he can win, ergo the decision on the date of the next election is inherently irrational and unpredictable.
Probably will be triggered by some random news story causing a temporary blip in the polls.
If Sunak waits until the polls show he can win, it will be Marchvember the Oneteenth.
Tories should just pass a law to say parliaments can last 10 years; what is there legally to stop them, since Parliament is sovereign?
The House of Lords.
That worked so well with the Rwanda bill - Labour really should have ensured a dual defeat and said if you want to implement it put it in your manifesto and call an election
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
Sensible tories are no stranger to the fact that a majority of the younger generation is risk-averse, has no national pride, is reflexively left wing (though unclear over what this actually means), and has an obtuse lack of understanding of the implications of green policy (or in fact of any policy). It coincides being increasingly dim. Liz Truss's entire schtick is to take the right wing arguments out there - as we know, she gives it 10 years to reverse the trend and pull the same trick as the left has done. That seems to be what Suella wants to do too, and good for her.
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
They need to go and spend a few days away at a policy workshop. Do the Yes and Ho! session and come back with those new distinctly Conservative policies to change the narrative:
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies A flat rate of income tax Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools Lets do away with Computers
You forgot the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast
I love asparagus ! And certainly aren’t a Conservative. I also love avocado , what does that make me !
Asparagus and Avocado are the two tastiest green foodstuffs available. Followed by salsa verde, sprouting broccoli and basil leaves.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
Sprouts !
True. With the @Luckyguy1983 rider that they require fat. Ideally bacon grease and some little bacon bits.
Creamed spinach likewise - basic boiled or steamed spinach meh, mixed with butter or cream and garlic yum.
(1) Reform still don't party (2) They won't match their polling (3) Polling generally good, and suggests the Tories are in 26-28% zone atm (not 20-22%) and YouGov are still off (4) However, the seat count could be made worse by tactical voting (5) They will clearly suffer a very very heavy defeat, but won't be wiped out (6) Labour will probably get a moderate landslide- with the LDs doing a tad better than expected
I don't believe the hung parliament stuff. Figures yesterday point to me at Labour clocking 400+ seats
The black swan event for the Tories is Farage leading the Reform campaign.
(1) Reform still don't party (2) They won't match their polling (3) Polling generally good, and suggests the Tories are in 26-28% zone atm (not 20-22%) and YouGov are still off (4) However, the seat count could be made worse by tactical voting (5) They will clearly suffer a very very heavy defeat, but won't be wiped out (6) Labour will probably get a moderate landslide- with the LDs doing a tad better than expected
I don't believe the hung parliament stuff. Figures yesterday point to me at Labour clocking 400+ seats
The black swan event for the Tories is Farage leading the Reform campaign.
No reason why Ofcom will grant Major party status to Reform as a result of these elections. That will deny the party significant campaign coverage by Broadcasters.
It is insane - but it is fact - that Andy Street will have next to no role to play in any Tory rebuild. He has some serious thinking to do about whether he wants to be complicit in what happens next.
Sunak’s problem isn’t that he’s privileged, it’s that he doesn’t really have a story. I, like others, am still a little nonplussed as to why he got into politics.
He went from unelected nobody to PM in just over 7 years which would seem to indicate that he is fucking awesome at politics yet he is hopeless at the job of being PM.
He introduced Eat Out to Spread Covid About. That is more than enough to explain his political ability (or lack thereof).
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
I think PR is totally essential to get proper representation of the voters in Parliament. If Brexit was about democracy, PR is essential as the next step.
PR isn't about democracy. It is about giving all the power to the parties and allowing them to ignore the electorate permanently. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
PR is totally about democracy. Unless you think under FPTP that it's good that most votes are irrelevant to the outcome?
PR would give a lot more consensus in politics and also support a wider range of views. I think Reform are badly under-represented in Parliament.
Concensus is not good. Again it gives power to the parties not the people. It is concensus between the politicians based on their own beliefs and wishes, not the people.
I was strongly in favour of AV but any form of PR that assigns votes based on party share is thoroughly undemocratic.
AV would still give that strong link to your local MP rather than a list for a region . Something does need to change re our voting system but the two main parties show zero interest in doing that .
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
Sensible tories are no stranger to the fact that a majority of the younger generation is risk-averse, has no national pride, is reflexively left wing (though unclear over what this actually means), and has an obtuse lack of understanding of the implications of green policy (or in fact of any policy). It coincides being increasingly dim. Liz Truss's entire schtick is to take the right wing arguments out there - as we know, she gives it 10 years to reverse the trend and pull the same trick as the left has done. That seems to be what Suella wants to do too, and good for her.
I’m not sure if “our voters are stupid idiots who hate the country” is a better or worse approach than “our voters all agree with us”.
There's a myth being propagated here which is in serious danger of becoming acknowledged "fact". During Truss's brief tenure bond rates rose because the UK no longer seemed a safe bet with irresponsible spending and cuts in taxes. The major problem was the uncosted open ended cheque in respect of peoples' fuel bills, the tax cuts themselves were more modest.
After Sunak and particularly Hunt took over we returned to trend. The gas subsidy, whilst still large, was costed and time limited. What was also happening, however, is that the burst of international inflation that had caused the spike in gas prices became much more generalised as fuel costs drove everything else higher, particularly food. This meant interest rates rose internationally as well as here.
The myth is that the current rise in mortgage rates as people come to the end of their fixed rates has anything to do with Truss, her economic incompetence or is in any way out of the norm. It's just not true. After more than a decade of incredibly low interest rates following the GFC bond rates have returned to the lower end of normal and mortgages have moved accordingly. Hard for those who had got used to practically free money but inevitable. And absolutely nothing to do with Truss.
Whilst I think that's broadly fair, I think you're wrong with "...After Sunak and particularly Hunt took over we returned to trend...". I think there was an overhang from Truss: specifically her actions removed the trust (pun!) of the markets from the 2019-2024/5 government, so Sunak or Hunt's actions thereafter would not be as effective as before.
There's not a lot of evidence of that. Our base rate is 5.25, the US 5.5% and the ECB is 4.75%. All pretty tightly grouped really. We had a bit more of a problem with inflation than the EU (where the depression in Germany has offset some inflation) so our base rate is marginally higher. Sterling has been very stable against both the dollar and the Euro over the last year. Our growth has been pretty middle of the pack. Not seeing the premium.
Of course, the market may react even more swiftly if a future government does anything quite as stupid in the future.
Sunak will go when he thinks he can win, ergo the decision on the date of the next election is inherently irrational and unpredictable.
Probably will be triggered by some random news story causing a temporary blip in the polls.
If Sunak waits until the polls show he can win, it will be Marchvember the Oneteenth.
Tories should just pass a law to say parliaments can last 10 years; what is there legally to stop them, since Parliament is sovereign?
The House of Lords.
No it can't since the HoL acts 1911 and 1949
The Parliament Act gives the Lords a delaying power of 12 months. Too late now for the Commons to override that. It is a bonkers idea - and would never be applied retrospectively anyway!
I am not sure it's the offshore processing people have a problem with.
It's the fact the Rwanda scheme:
is terrible value for money;
will only "solve" the problem for a tiny number of people;
doesn't act as a deterrent;
means that even if somebody is a legitimate asylum seeker, they cannot stay in the UK, which is not only morally abhorrent, it breaks our international obligations that we helped to found after WW2;
will I suspect result in deaths of people fleeing the Congo and other such countries;
doesn't cure the backlog of asylum cases.
That omits its worst flaw which is its insane cruelty. To be a penniless foreigner in Africa without a support network of family and friends is a terrifying prospect, literally probably a fate worse than death, no matter what the legislation says. That's where any deterrent value comes from.
Yes I don’t fully buy the argument there is no deterrent effect. There must be. The calculation if you’re considering your options is then about the likelihood of this happening vs the various other options you have, none of which are likely to be good otherwise you wouldn’t risk your life on a dinghy in the first place.
We may get tens of thousands of arrivals this summer but that may have been tens of thousands more without the deterrent. Who knows. But from my point of view a one way ticket that outsources our actual refugee convention obligations is beyond the pale.
Defiant Rishi vows to 'work as hard as ever' after mayoral election losses
Go for it. The harder he works, the bigger the Labour landslide...
"This week, Mr Sunak will attempt to get back on the front foot with a series of announcements on getting people back to work, clamping down on anti-Semitic hate speech and pressing ahead with deporting migrants to Rwanda."
Telegraph.
Another week of bash the disabled Rishi? Yeh, that'll do it. That'll turn the polls.
It is insane - but it is fact - that Andy Street will have next to no role to play in any Tory rebuild. He has some serious thinking to do about whether he wants to be complicit in what happens next.
As he is sensible he will probably either retire or return to business. He is not in the situation that survivors of the GE will be in of being forced to participate in the ensuing bloodbath.
In PR systems they don't care what the electorate are like because the leaders of the main parties know they are always likely to get into power in coalition no matter what. PR creates a closed shop for professional politicians.
I think PR is totally essential to get proper representation of the voters in Parliament. If Brexit was about democracy, PR is essential as the next step.
PR isn't about democracy. It is about giving all the power to the parties and allowing them to ignore the electorate permanently. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
PR is totally about democracy. Unless you think under FPTP that it's good that most votes are irrelevant to the outcome?
PR would give a lot more consensus in politics and also support a wider range of views. I think Reform are badly under-represented in Parliament.
Concensus is not good. Again it gives power to the parties not the people. It is concensus between the politicians based on their own beliefs and wishes, not the people.
I was strongly in favour of AV but any form of PR that assigns votes based on party share is thoroughly undemocratic.
AV would still give that strong link to your local MP rather than a list for a region . Something does need to change re our voting system but the two main parties show zero interest in doing that .
STV does so even more. There is no list system in STV therefore none of the issues often raised by anti-PR campaigners.
Under STV, rather like in a local council, if I don’t like one of my MPs or they ignore my emails I can try another one. And if one of the local party’s candidates is a prat but another is solid I can vote for them and not for the prat, rather than facing a binary choice of prat vs the other party I don’t like.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
Sensible tories are no stranger to the fact that a majority of the younger generation is risk-averse, has no national pride, is reflexively left wing (though unclear over what this actually means), and has an obtuse lack of understanding of the implications of green policy (or in fact of any policy). It coincides being increasingly dim. Liz Truss's entire schtick is to take the right wing arguments out there - as we know, she gives it 10 years to reverse the trend and pull the same trick as the left has done. That seems to be what Suella wants to do too, and good for her.
I’m not sure if “our voters are stupid idiots who hate the country” is a better or worse approach than “our voters all agree with us”.
I'm not suggesting that that's the approach they take. And there will always be a minority that thinks critically and ends up thinking 'hey this is wrong' as indeed there is in this generation. Very few of us who are right wing in this country are so because we were taught it in school.
It is insane - but it is fact - that Andy Street will have next to no role to play in any Tory rebuild. He has some serious thinking to do about whether he wants to be complicit in what happens next.
As he is sensible he will probably either retire or return to business. He is not in the situation that survivors of the GE will be in of being forced to participate in the ensuing bloodbath.
We’re still 7 months from an election. What the Tories are doing isn’t working. What they are saying is being openly laughed at. But they still have time to change tack.
This is the lunacy. Plan. Rwanda. Tax cuts. Priorities. All rejected massively and comprehensively. So stop saying them. Say something different.
This is not a mid term protest vote. This is the end. People are not waiting for Rwanda to start or for interest rates to fall. Thursday did not prove that the race is close and that Labour haven’t sealed the deal. Harper may as well say “I am a Fish” in response to every question to sound more sane.
Forget waiting for a black swan. Pivot now and pivot hard. Away from the failed mess. Give people something new to concentrate on. Campaign on bringing back hanging for small boat refugees. Campaign on forcing people off sick notes into building new prisons which you then lock them up in. Campaign on mandatory skirts for girls in schools.
We’re still 7 months from an election. What the Tories are doing isn’t working. What they are saying is being openly laughed at. But they still have time to change tack.
This is the lunacy. Plan. Rwanda. Tax cuts. Priorities. All rejected massively and comprehensively. So stop saying them. Say something different.
This is not a mid term protest vote. This is the end. People are not waiting for Rwanda to start or for interest rates to fall. Thursday did not prove that the race is close and that Labour haven’t sealed the deal. Harper may as well say “I am a Fish” in response to every question to sound more sane.
Forget waiting for a black swan. Pivot now and pivot hard. Away from the failed mess. Give people something new to concentrate on. Campaign on bringing back hanging for small boat refugees. Campaign on forcing people off sick notes into building new prisons which you then lock them up in. Campaign on mandatory skirts for girls in schools.
Whatever. Just change the script.
Probably now less than five and a half months from Poling Day which I expect to be October 17th.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
Sensible tories are no stranger to the fact that a majority of the younger generation is risk-averse, has no national pride, is reflexively left wing (though unclear over what this actually means), and has an obtuse lack of understanding of the implications of green policy (or in fact of any policy). It coincides being increasingly dim. Liz Truss's entire schtick is to take the right wing arguments out there - as we know, she gives it 10 years to reverse the trend and pull the same trick as the left has done. That seems to be what Suella wants to do too, and good for her.
I’m not sure if “our voters are stupid idiots who hate the country” is a better or worse approach than “our voters all agree with us”.
I'm not suggesting that that's the approach they take. And there will always be a minority that thinks critically and ends up thinking 'hey this is wrong' as indeed there is in this generation. Very few of us who are right wing in this country are so because we were taught it in school.
I was taught all sorts of right wing stuff at school, particularly by my science teachers (one of whom seemed to be borderline creationist). The English teachers were lefties - one of them was known as “the commie”. Funny looking back. School pupils largely ignore what their teachers tell them.
I recall many on here who hate Owen J also loathe Lord Tom, so a bit of a dilemma here. Personally I'd say only one of them is a bloated old has-been sniping from the sidelines.
Not if it’s been done properly. But I suspect, remove those four big Tory to Labour swings lower left, and the correlation would look significantly less impressive. One of the shortcomings of linear regression is that it can be overly influenced by datapoints a long way from the line.
PART 1: HOW IT WAS DONE The graph depicts a line between many points. I assume the line was built using simple linear regression. Simple linear regression creates a line that looks like this...
y = a + bx + e
...and it chooses values for "a" and "b" that minimise "e", because "e" is the vertical error.
PART 2: WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS It's a simple technique but it does have problems, namely
It assumes the relationship is linear. It might not be and there's a famous case of this
It assumes there's a relationship. It creates a line even if there isn't one.
"e" is the vertical error, not the absolute error, so...
...the technique is very dependent on your choice of axes. If you rotate the data around the origin, or flip the axes (swap x for y) you get a different line.
PART 3: WHAT'S REALLY WRONG WITH THIS A generation of data scientists have grown up on the basis of "buy-software-produce-graph-point-at-it" without actually knowing the mathematical techniques underlying it or how it can go wrong. There was a case some months back where famous person 1 produced a ludicrously stupid graph and famous person 2 complained about not sourcing the data, without noticing the ludicrousness. I was left gulping like a fish at the silliness
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
Sensible tories are no stranger to the fact that a majority of the younger generation is risk-averse, has no national pride, is reflexively left wing (though unclear over what this actually means), and has an obtuse lack of understanding of the implications of green policy (or in fact of any policy). It coincides being increasingly dim. Liz Truss's entire schtick is to take the right wing arguments out there - as we know, she gives it 10 years to reverse the trend and pull the same trick as the left has done. That seems to be what Suella wants to do too, and good for her.
I’m not sure if “our voters are stupid idiots who hate the country” is a better or worse approach than “our voters all agree with us”.
I'm not suggesting that that's the approach they take. And there will always be a minority that thinks critically and ends up thinking 'hey this is wrong' as indeed there is in this generation. Very few of us who are right wing in this country are so because we were taught it in school.
I was taught all sorts of right wing stuff at school, particularly by my science teachers (one of whom seemed to be borderline creationist). The English teachers were lefties - one of them was known as “the commie”. Funny looking back. School pupils largely ignore what their teachers tell them.
I wouldn't call having one science teacher who was a 'borderline creationist' 'being taught all sorts of right wing views', and the surprise with which you describe his borderline creationism rather tells its own story, wouldn't you say?
I am not sure that pupils can 'ignore' that much of their education - they may ignore or disregard being told to be quiet or hand their homework in on time, but they are still educated in a miasma of accepted truth via both the curriculum and the way it's delivered, which only a minority grow to oppose. It's not the same in the US of course.
Still of the impression he will call the election either just before or just after the Whitsun break, depending when he expects the first plane load to depart
Sunak has staked far too much on Rwanda, a huge misjudgment. At the start of last week, they reported on somebody voluntarily going - it's started! Then the HO published the (disgraceful) video of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and prepared for Rwanda flights. Then the stuff about refugees escaping to Ireland to avoid Rwanda. I think he genuinely believed that all this would make a big difference to Thursday's elections.
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
Did we ever find out the nationality of the volunteer deportee? I did wonder if they were East African, perhaps even Rwandan, going home with a nice payoff, enough to set themselves up.
@Haggis_UK Watch Suella Braverman spit her dummy out.
"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a peanut... Labour is a party of hard left maniacs, who would undo brexit, who would open our borders & who would indoctrinated our institutions & schools with PC madness.. "
Possible we’re watching it dawning on the Conservative Party that Britain isn’t the country they think it is in real time.
That second tweet points to something. It’s a feature of FPTP and it affects Labour too.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
Sensible tories are no stranger to the fact that a majority of the younger generation is risk-averse, has no national pride, is reflexively left wing (though unclear over what this actually means), and has an obtuse lack of understanding of the implications of green policy (or in fact of any policy). It coincides being increasingly dim. Liz Truss's entire schtick is to take the right wing arguments out there - as we know, she gives it 10 years to reverse the trend and pull the same trick as the left has done. That seems to be what Suella wants to do too, and good for her.
I’m not sure if “our voters are stupid idiots who hate the country” is a better or worse approach than “our voters all agree with us”.
I'm not suggesting that that's the approach they take. And there will always be a minority that thinks critically and ends up thinking 'hey this is wrong' as indeed there is in this generation. Very few of us who are right wing in this country are so because we were taught it in school.
I was taught all sorts of right wing stuff at school, particularly by my science teachers (one of whom seemed to be borderline creationist). The English teachers were lefties - one of them was known as “the commie”. Funny looking back. School pupils largely ignore what their teachers tell them.
One of my favourite primary school teachers was in the SWP. I’m not what you’d call a Trot though. On the other hand when I went to grammar school my first year music teacher once told my class that none of us would have a good sense of rhythm because none of us were black. That is not a position I would accept either.
Still of the impression he will call the election either just before or just after the Whitsun break, depending when he expects the first plane load to depart
the first 'plane load' departed last week, before the triumphant local elections...
I recall many on here who hate Owen J also loathe Lord Tom, so a bit of a dilemma here. Personally I'd say only one of them is a bloated old has-been sniping from the sidelines.
How many governments has Owen Jones helped run? What positive change has he ever delivered?
Mr. Valiant, the reconstitution of the USSR is what Putin's after.
After Ukraine, if Russia win, then Transnistra/Moldova is an obvious option. After that, he might go for the Baltic Tigers or Georgia (again). The -stans of central Asia *might* be a little safer as many have closer economic ties with China, but that may not be the case.
I hope neither geopolitics nor anything else requiring logic is your day job.
Glorious start here in downtown East Ham as the people of London celebrate their deliverance from the machinations of Susan Hall (or not, as the case may be).
Plenty to chew over from Thursday - I'll be interested to see how many administration changes will occur as a result of the elections. Could the Conservatives be replaced by a Lab/LD administration in Dudley - what of Havant? It is sometimes the case the erstwhile Independent turns out to be more of a Condependent and that maintains Conservative control.
Looking at Surrey for example, Runnymede, one of the few councils to remain Conservative-controlled through the nadir of the mid-90s, had 20 Conservative Councillors out of 41, now it has only 13 so a non-Conservative administration looks possible.
The same may happen in Reigate & Banstead where 23 Conservative Councillors out of 45 is now 18.
It is now both practical and possible in both Councils to create a majority administration without the Conservatives whereas before it was only possible in theory.
Comments
Does Rishi Sunak have a plan? (1 May)
Yes 31%
No 54%
Does Rishi Sunak have a plan that is working?
Yes 22%
No 64%
The result? The Tories got trounced, up and down the country, including in 'Brexity' areas where the Tories seem convinced that 'Rwanda' is a deal-breaker. He's wrong - it isn't. Even for people who support the policy, it doesn't look like a vote changer.
A Post Office style enquiry is also needed. The coverup has extended over four decades; it's only this year that we have conclusive evidence madd public that illegal medical trials were deliberately carried out on a large scale.
We need to know how government brushed it under the carpet for so long. The Civil Service
has failed massively; but was it at the behest of government ?
Is there something about reality which the remaining Tories refuse to engage with?
The difference is perhaps rather (as has been suggested by a few commentators) Cameron doesn't have the illusion that he can control everything in life, after the experience with his son ?
Admirable business people - in whom such confidence can be an asset - do not usually make admirable politicians.
They're just coming for your money.
Maybe it’s because Truss prompted such derision with her “I went to an awful comp in the 80s” shtick.
Capital Punishment for illegal refugees, leftie lawyers and people wearing hoodies
A flat rate of income tax
Strict citizenship restrictions on employment - if you're foreign, you can't work
Mandatory wearing of skirts for girls in schools
Lets do away with Computers
Which is all fair and good except Labour will be asking the Audit Office to look at Teesworks and that is smelly enough that I can smell it from the fair side of Tees Valley
I would also add that Labour did lose votes on the Gaza issue on Thursday (Street would have lost by over 50,000 if it were not for that). I predict the issue will have far less salience by the GE and do little more than depress the Labour vote a bit in a few safe seats.
Reform, on the other hand, still have the capacity to cost the Tories a few seats because it looks like Sunak is staying and he is not the sort of leader that is going to bring Reform voters back into the Tory fold particularly if it still looks a lost cause by then.
Reminiscent of the Angeli dynasty. The Conservatives must be hoping they aren't driven from Constantinople.
It's the fact the Rwanda scheme:
Asked repeatedly whether the Tories need to change direction, offer something new or rethink after the local elections Mark Harper tells @TimesRadio that no, the right thing to do is to continue delivering the same message because that’s what voters want. Asked if this stance was arrogant Harper said no.
Because of our voting system it’s possible for one party platform to get a big majority. They then tell themselves they represent the settled will of the British people. After 2019 Conservatives convinced themselves the electorate were all solid salt of the earth John bulls, keen Brexiteers shaped in the image of their new Red Wall MP intake.
Thatcher had the same delusions after 1983 and 87 and they eventually brought her down. Blair looked at his majorities and decided he was invincible.
In PR systems with coalitions that delusion is much less likely to take hold. It’s notable to me that the moment the SNP started believing it was the sole authentic voice of Scotland was after the 2015 FPTP landslide, not after relative success in Holyrood.
That's not achievable. By weakening the West, all they do is drag themselves down to. They've no modern industry or technological base to speak of.
Where will they get their stolen iPhones, BMWs and Yachts if they win? They never think these things through. Excepting Tetris, I honestly can't think of anything they've achieved in the last hundred years that the West didn't do first and doesn't do better.
Maybe Gulags.... maybe.....
If they do what they say they'll do, they'll knock themselves (And the rest of the world) back to the 1850s (if they're lucky).
Apocalyptic prognostications of doom attending the election of the opposition are alas par for the course. It’s part of the terms of trade Suella though gives too much impression of being entirely in earnest rather than just engaging in political knockabout. Lord Howard was accused of having something of the night about him, with Braverman there’s nothing but the night about her.
I actually think, in the end, it will be a future Tory party that does it because they will have no choice but to become that party to win again. They almost had it with Dave and George but just didn't go far enough and then May and Boris undid all of it.
I think Gaza will be very relevant still, much as Iraq was in 2005, and as such Galloway will wreak havoc at the margins.
What I would like to know is why was the fee for a boarding pupil for 2023-24 set at £16,384 per term. That's exactly 2^14 pounds.
The tastiest foods are however generally in the red-brown spectrum.
After Ukraine, if Russia win, then Transnistra/Moldova is an obvious option. After that, he might go for the Baltic Tigers or Georgia (again). The -stans of central Asia *might* be a little safer as many have closer economic ties with China, but that may not be the case.
So although it damages them in the safest seats, overall their approach is a net positive.
I would hypothesise that Labour's vote is the most efficient it has been for many years. The Tory vote on the other hand, is caught in a pincer movement - which was always a large possibility after Johnson's win in 2019.
He didn’t want them to just lose but wanted the complete destruction of them in the hope they might come back as a saner party who can offer a reasonable opposition.
Many people have a long list of gripes with the Tories and want them to suffer badly .
.........But I've only ever had Tory ones sending vans round areas of London telling immigrants to "GO HOME' or sending asylum seekers to Rwanda or having a Home Secretary who wants to bring back hanging....
PR would give a lot more consensus in politics and also support a wider range of views. I think Reform are badly under-represented in Parliament.
It doesn't accord with their ideology, which they have a lifelong psychological investment in.
Reality must be wrong or the alternative is too terrible to consider.
That Russia is naturally The Greatest, and once all The Gay NATO Countries are destroyed/bow down properly, everything will be Awesome.
Imagine MAGA multiplied by a lot.
Whereas China is the silent nerd who the jocks ignore but who’s quietly planning their tech company launch for world domination, at which point they’ll become rather less quiet.
Reminds me of the time that, under Blair, they were planning to house asylum seekers outside London. One human rights group went to court, to claim that forcing people to live in Edinburgh was inhumane.
Georgia in 2008 (and only partially), then Crimea in 2014 before Ukraine proper in 2022 (which isn't going to plan). At this rate, he might get to the Baltics about 2036, by which point he'll probably be dead.
I mean, he's moving slower than the announcement of Duke Nukem Forever in 1996 to its eventual release in 2010.
RUSSIA might follow this plan, but its not Putin's. He's nearly out of time.
I was strongly in favour of AV but any form of PR that assigns votes based on party share is thoroughly undemocratic.
Defiant Rishi vows to 'work as hard as ever' after mayoral election losses
Go for it. The harder he works, the bigger the Labour landslide...
There are few more powerful parties in world politics than the Tories and Labour here, or the Republicans and Democrats in the US, because they enjoy an oligopolistic political system with insurmountable barriers to entry.
From a competition policy point of view FPTP has the same effect as huge minimum capital requirements or bundled fixed telecom networks.
Im not sure I follow. Strictly speaking she wasn’t elected PM because it’s a Westminster system, but putting aside that, she won an absolute majority under a PR system (the second time round).
Creamed spinach likewise - basic boiled or steamed spinach meh, mixed with butter or cream and garlic yum.
Of course, the market may react even more swiftly if a future government does anything quite as stupid in the future.
We may get tens of thousands of arrivals this summer but that may have been tens of thousands more without the deterrent. Who knows. But from my point of view a one way ticket that outsources our actual refugee convention obligations is beyond the pale.
Telegraph.
Another week of bash the disabled Rishi? Yeh, that'll do it. That'll turn the polls.
Under STV, rather like in a local council, if I don’t like one of my MPs or they ignore my emails I can try another one. And if one of the local party’s candidates is a prat but another is solid I can vote for them and not for the prat, rather than facing a binary choice of prat vs the other party I don’t like.
PART 1: HOW IT WAS DONE
The graph depicts a line between many points. I assume the line was built using simple linear regression. Simple linear regression creates a line that looks like this...
y = a + bx + e
...and it chooses values for "a" and "b" that minimise "e", because "e" is the vertical error.
PART 2: WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS
It's a simple technique but it does have problems, namely
- It assumes the relationship is linear. It might not be and there's a famous case of this
- It assumes there's a relationship. It creates a line even if there isn't one.
- "e" is the vertical error, not the absolute error, so...
- ...the technique is very dependent on your choice of axes. If you rotate the data around the origin, or flip the axes (swap x for y) you get a different line.
PART 3: WHAT'S REALLY WRONG WITH THISA generation of data scientists have grown up on the basis of "buy-software-produce-graph-point-at-it" without actually knowing the mathematical techniques underlying it or how it can go wrong. There was a case some months back where famous person 1 produced a ludicrously stupid graph and famous person 2 complained about not sourcing the data, without noticing the ludicrousness. I was left gulping like a fish at the silliness
From talking on the door steps .....
It’s the will of the people .....
I am not sure that pupils can 'ignore' that much of their education - they may ignore or disregard being told to be quiet or hand their homework in on time, but they are still educated in a miasma of accepted truth via both the curriculum and the way it's delivered, which only a minority grow to oppose. It's not the same in the US of course.
Glorious start here in downtown East Ham as the people of London celebrate their deliverance from the machinations of Susan Hall (or not, as the case may be).
Plenty to chew over from Thursday - I'll be interested to see how many administration changes will occur as a result of the elections. Could the Conservatives be replaced by a Lab/LD administration in Dudley - what of Havant? It is sometimes the case the erstwhile Independent turns out to be more of a Condependent and that maintains Conservative control.
Looking at Surrey for example, Runnymede, one of the few councils to remain Conservative-controlled through the nadir of the mid-90s, had 20 Conservative Councillors out of 41, now it has only 13 so a non-Conservative administration looks possible.
The same may happen in Reigate & Banstead where 23 Conservative Councillors out of 45 is now 18.
It is now both practical and possible in both Councils to create a majority administration without the Conservatives whereas before it was only possible in theory.