🚨 NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall
Because he voted in York and North Yorkshire instead... although he's legally allowed to vote in both.
Are you sure? The commission’s description of the rules here aren’t clear. It says you cannot exercise a vote in a second home in the London mayoralty election, but can for others:
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
Would he really want to be an MP if he wins today? He's 60 and the Tories will be in opposition, so he's not realistically going to be part of the plans when the Tories return at some point. Meanwhile, being Mayor is a serious job with real power.
Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?
Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?
I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.
The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.
Never attribute to malice, that which night be otherwise explained by incompetence.
An evergreen adage; the older I get the more experience teaches me that it is true.
Although malice and incompetence are not mutually exclusive qualities, as the current government indicates.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
This was Jeremy Vine in around 2007. I recall OGH not being too impressed with the cowboy theme!
No one was. Then the BBC tried the whiny excuse that they were trying to be be more inclusive and trendy to get younger people interested. For local election results at 3am….
Several people on PB had stayed up and when they failed to actually provide the elections results….
BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43% Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
Seems to be a case of nobody wanting to run a strong campaign in case they still lose.
Like refusing to revise hard for a subject you are rubbish at on the grounds that it will only make you look more stupid when you fail.
BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43% Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
Seems to be a case of nobody wanting to run a strong campaign in case they still lose.
Like refusing to revise hard for a subject you are rubbish at on the grounds that it will only make you look more stupid when you fail.
It needs a maverick who doesn't care.
I'm not convinced a good Tory candidate could have made up that 10% gap this year. However, in 2029, under a Labour government, there's every chance for the Tories to re-take the city, as long as they find a sensible candidate and work out in opposition what they're about without going madly to the right... so, in other words, probably not...
Makes you wonder how the rumours of Khan losing got started doesn't it?
Was it a cruel Con staffer giving Hall hope of victory because they wanted to see her reaction when she realized she'd been crushed?
I suspect an inexperienced junior staffer. Anyone who has worked on a campaign will know how easy it is to get drawn into this way of thinking.
The more cynical in me wonders if those with vested interests (stakes) wanted to manipulate the markets. It does happen and especially when there’s a long lag between vote and count. All it takes is to start a rumour with apparent ‘inner knowledge’ and, especially nowadays, you could play the markets. If so, it’s immoral.
Never attribute to malice, that which night be otherwise explained by incompetence.
BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43% Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor
The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.
We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:
Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43% Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.
Definitely a winnable situation for a strong Tory candidate, had they selected one.
Seems to be a case of nobody wanting to run a strong campaign in case they still lose.
Like refusing to revise hard for a subject you are rubbish at on the grounds that it will only make you look more stupid when you fail.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
This was Jeremy Vine in around 2007. I recall OGH not being too impressed with the cowboy theme!
No one was. Then the BBC tried the whiny excuse that they were trying to be be more inclusive and trendy to get younger people interested. For local election results at 3am….
Several people on PB had stayed up and when they failed to actually provide the elections results….
Anyhoo I just dropped on twitter and tagged @theJeremyVine , to make the day a little more interesting.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 38m One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
Tory 75396 Labour 73257 Green 10508 Lib Dem 10120 Reform 6983
2021 Results:
Tory 79863 Labour 74854
Outer London, covers Uxbridge, of ULEZ by-election fame. Hall underperforming here - I think that ULEZ is turning out to be a much less salient issue than the Tories had been hoping.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Greens seem to be consistently beating the Liberals in mayor elections.
It's in the low numbers territory for both, but I was just thinking Greens were rather underperforming and Lib Dems doing somewhat better than last time in results for London so far. Don't know how that will translate to list vote and SW London constituency (neither party is relevant anywhere else in terms of constituency members) but Lib Dems looking in a reasonable position to pick up a third seat on the Assembly and Greens slightly at risk of going down to two. But hard to read with tactical situation.
I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
Tory 75396 Labour 73257 Green 10508 Lib Dem 10120 Reform 6983
2021 Results:
Tory 79863 Labour 74854
Outer London, covers Uxbridge, of ULEZ by-election fame. Hall underperforming here - I think that ULEZ is turning out to be a much less salient issue than the Tories had been hoping.
The swing in the mayoral race is pretty similar to the swing in the Uxbridge & SR by-election.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 38m One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 38m One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.
I hope some people on here backed Khan at 1.33 or whatever he drifted to. I said to my girlfriend I probably should do at that price when I saw it, but didn’t. That’s the tough thing about betting on politics, when you see what appears to be massive value there always the risk that the other side of the bet has inside info
The best bet I had on politics was when I did have some inside info - as a UKIP member, I got the news that they were only standing in a certain amount of seats in GE17 and so backed them at 1/3 for £3k to poll less than 10% (I think that was the bet anyway). Cant believe the betting shop laid it really, but that was the definition of easy money
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
Would he really want to be an MP if he wins today? He's 60 and the Tories will be in opposition, so he's not realistically going to be part of the plans when the Tories return at some point. Meanwhile, being Mayor is a serious job with real power.
And if he loses? There is some even money available for Street on Betfair. Labour (who?) odds-on.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
I see inside source claims that the Labour Party leadership are extremely concerned with the prediction of a hung parliament after the General Election. Senior Labour figures are drawing up plans to consider a coalition with the Tories!
Sinil Cheers and blames the Greens
Labour are going to be saying that right up to election day to get out every vote and squeeze every tactical vote they can. I suspect at least half the Green voters from yesterday will be voting Labour at the GE to make sure there is no chance of the Tories getting back - I know several people who didn't vote Labour yesterday but fully intend to at a GE.
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
I remember 1997 being driven predominantly by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
Yeah - my vote will be a vote to bin off our Tory rather than get in a Lib Dem. But I’ll be voting LD over my usual party of choice.
I did the vote swap thing last time and got a surprising person known to this site as my paired voter.
Meanwhile in the locals it’s LD 521, Con 509, so the Lib Dems have extended their lead and I think that probably seals it for them with one council still to announce.
Pretty stunning result to beat the Tories on council seats. The total Tory losses at just shy of 500 are pretty much bang on what the pre-poll MRP suggested.
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
Would he really want to be an MP if he wins today? He's 60 and the Tories will be in opposition, so he's not realistically going to be part of the plans when the Tories return at some point. Meanwhile, being Mayor is a serious job with real power.
And if he loses? There is some even money available for Street on Betfair. Labour (who?) odds-on.
If he loses then he might well fancy a little retirement number and would have personal reasons for wanting to be around Westminster during the week and in the Midlands at the weekend.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Laura K?
You have gotta be kidding me.
Jeez.
She anchored the locals. It’s not a stretch to suggest she’ll do the GE too.
She would be a really poor choice IMHO. But I can see it happening. The BBC seem to think she’s wonderful. She was pretty good back in the day on the Daily Politics, but I’m afraid she was not a fantastic political editor, and she should not have been given the Marr slot.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Laura K?
You have gotta be kidding me.
Jeez.
Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
Maybe not. Solihull had a bundle check, and that was not remotely close.
Labour 108977 Tory 38626 Green 13256 Lib Dem 7551 Reform 6898
2021 Results:
Labour 99971 Tory 58145
Very little sign of Gaza-inspired vote strikes in any of the London boroughs. Suggests to me that in two horse races that matter, for now, left wing voters will hold their noses and vote Labour.
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
I assume the Solihull west & Shirley constituency is being held open for Street if he wants it, whether he wins or loses today.
100/1 for next con leader looks generous to me, in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Patel/Badenoch/Braverman’s all knock each other out and the sane wing of the Tory party prevails.
Lol, that's total knife edge, Street might be in trouble
Except that Labour's Gaza problem wouldn't manifest itself very much in Solihull.
Labour's running-a-shit-show in Birmingham is more of a problem.
My back of the envelope calculation is that Labour will carry Birmingham by 25-30k, and that is probably not enough.
The Tory lead in Solihull was 23,500.
In 2021, the Tory lead in Solihull was 32,400. So the Tory lead in Solihull fell by 8,900 compared to 2021.
Over the whole West Midlands, in 2021 Street won by 47,000.
So even though Solihull accounts for only 9.4% of the total votes cast in 2024, the Tories have already lost about 19% of their winning 2021 margin of 47,000.
At face value, even allowing for a poor result for Labour in Birmingham, my reaction is that that looks bad for Street.
Put another way, even if Labour only maintained its 2021 margin of 17,500 over the Conservatives in Birmingham, Labour only has to improve the margin by 7,800 in each of Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley, Sandwell and Coventry to get over the winning line. And the number of votes cast in 2024 in each of those five boroughs averaged about one-third more than the number cast in Solihull.
Labour 108977 Tory 38626 Green 13256 Lib Dem 7551 Reform 6898
2021 Results:
Labour 99971 Tory 58145
Very little sign of Gaza-inspired vote strikes in any of the London boroughs. Suggests to me that in two horse races that matter, for now, left wing voters will hold their noses and vote Labour.
A lot of Greens have also voted Labour without the second preference vote.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Laura K?
You have gotta be kidding me.
Jeez.
She anchored the locals. It’s not a stretch to suggest she’ll do the GE too.
She would be a really poor choice IMHO. But I can see it happening. The BBC seem to think she’s wonderful. She was pretty good back in the day on the Daily Politics, but I’m afraid she was not a fantastic political editor, and she should not have been given the Marr slot.
Meanwhile in the locals it’s LD 521, Con 509, so the Lib Dems have extended their lead and I think that probably seals it for them with one council still to announce.
Pretty stunning result to beat the Tories on council seats. The total Tory losses at just shy of 500 are pretty much bang on what the pre-poll MRP suggested.
Its a good result for the Lib Dems in several ways; more votes than forecast and distributed where they need to win under FPTP. Also now likely to give them a bit of a poll boost too given how much the media ignored them ahead of this election. So SED can be pretty chuffed.
Harry Horton @harry_horton · 10m NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Laura K?
You have gotta be kidding me.
Jeez.
Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:
Doesn't quite reach the heights of crying and saying "What will we do?" reached by Unionist newsreaders in Scotland, live.
Harry Horton @harry_horton · 10m NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
If so, Labour have won it. 3,000 votes don’t get overhauled.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.
A recount would mean that the votes right across the West Midlands have to be counted again - the fact that a candidate has comfortably carried a particular authority would not be relevant.
Harry Horton @harry_horton · 10m NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
If so, Labour have won it. 3,000 votes don’t get overhauled.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Laura K?
You have gotta be kidding me.
Jeez.
Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:
Doesn't quite reach the heights of crying and saying "What will we do?" reached by Unionist newsreaders in Scotland, live.
Harry Horton @harry_horton · 10m NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
If so, Labour have won it. 3,000 votes don’t get overhauled.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
I found 1997 fairly boring because the result was so obvious. I expect the same will apply.
Boring? Best election night. Ever. Edgbaston. Stephen Twigg. Portillo. D:ream. A new day has dawned, has it not. What a time to be alive.
BBC, as usual, have far too many talking heads, politicians speeches and politicians spinning.
Not enough analysis or emerging trends from the count.
I am trying to remember the local elections years back, where in the early hours of the morning they had one of the presenters (Jeremy Vine??) doing weird thing dressed in a toy shop cowboy costume (no really) - something about a shoot out. They managed to not announce the actual results when they came in….
Jeremy Vine it was, and,IIRC, a General Election. Was it the same year as they kept going to a bunch of drunk partying people in a boat on the Thames. I think Andrew Neil was part of it.
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
The Boat Party of the Damned was 2010 GE. IIRC, Vine’s awful cowboy skit was for the local elections, maybe even the year before?
But yes, both events were symptomatic of a sharp decline in the quality of BBC election night coverage. They have recovered a bit since, to be fair, though hardly spectacularly.
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
It looks very tight.
Not sure what more data is available.
A bit more from an ITV journo:
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
Who will present the BBC GE night now that Huw Edwards and (presumably) Dimbleby are out of the picture?
Clive Myrie?
Has to be surely?
I guess Myrie would be a sensible choice. Seems calm (like Edwards was) which you need on those nights. I was wondering if Laura would step up but it’s better to have the political editor beside you on the panel.
Yeah, she’s definitely analyst/panellist rather than anchor:
Laura K?
You have gotta be kidding me.
Jeez.
Just imagining her neutral expression when the exit poll comes out:
Doesn't quite reach the heights of crying and saying "What will we do?" reached by Unionist newsreaders in Scotland, live.
Or the BBC and Sky presenters almost crying on the morning after the Brexit vote. That really was funny.
Comments
Good of Sunak to obey the law. (For once.)
Several people on PB had stayed up and when they failed to actually provide the elections results….
Like refusing to revise hard for a subject you are rubbish at on the grounds that it will only make you look more stupid when you fail.
It needs a maverick who doesn't care.
Tory 75396
Labour 73257
Green 10508
Lib Dem 10120
Reform 6983
2021 Results:
Tory 79863
Labour 74854
Looks like Susan Hall has entered the Ultra Low Votes Zone.
https://twitter.com/GlobeElections
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
38m
One other thing to remember. The Tories didn't just build Susan Hall's campaign around a failed core vote strategy. Rishi Sunak tore up his own strategy after Uxbridge and tried to build a national campaign on the same basis.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1786754139294138610
I think your obsessional hatred of Starmer blinds you to what's really going on. I liked some of Corbyn's policies, I like some of the Green's policies but the reality is that under our electoral system the only choice is Labour if you don't want to wake up on the morning after polling day to discover that we have 5 more years of Sunak, Truss and co. I think most people understand that .
1997 was driven predominantly by people liking Blair, the next GE is going to be driven by people wanting the Tories out at any cost.
The most significant result yesterday was Blackpool South - the one election where the vote was based entirely on Westminster politics and Labour had their third highest swing ever I believe.
You have gotta be kidding me.
Jeez.
Burnham’s share slightly down but still received more than six times the votes of his nearest competitor.
Khan 108,977
Hall 38,626
Labour 108977
Tory 38626
Green 13256
Lib Dem 7551
Reform 6898
2021 Results:
Labour 99971
Tory 58145
In five of the seven local authorities in the West Midlands, election agents for the candidates have requested ‘bundle checks’ on their votes - not a full blown recount but an extra check on the number of bundled votes - suggesting the result could be very tight.
Guarduan
I did the vote swap thing last time and got a surprising person known to this site as my paired voter.
Pretty stunning result to beat the Tories on council seats. The total Tory losses at just shy of 500 are pretty much bang on what the pre-poll MRP suggested.
She would be a really poor choice IMHO. But I can see it happening. The BBC seem to think she’s wonderful. She was pretty good back in the day on the Daily Politics, but I’m afraid she was not a fantastic political editor, and she should not have been given the Marr slot.
Khan 70,984
Hall 57,465
Labour 70984
Tory 57465
Green 9044
Lib Dem 8480
Reform 4*66
2021 Results:
Labour 67610
Tory 65822
This GE I shall go to bed at 10 pm with Radio 4 quietly nearby and hope that Jim Naughtie is on the team; you reach a certain age when the all nighter has no charms at all.
Not sure what more data is available.
Very nice.
Over the whole West Midlands, in 2021 Street won by 47,000.
So even though Solihull accounts for only 9.4% of the total votes cast in 2024, the Tories have already lost about 19% of their winning 2021 margin of 47,000.
At face value, even allowing for a poor result for Labour in Birmingham, my reaction is that that looks bad for Street.
Put another way, even if Labour only maintained its 2021 margin of 17,500 over the Conservatives in Birmingham, Labour only has to improve the margin by 7,800 in each of Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley, Sandwell and Coventry to get over the winning line. And the number of votes cast in 2024 in each of those five boroughs averaged about one-third more than the number cast in Solihull.
Harry Horton
@harry_horton
·
10m
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
NEW: Senior Labour source says the Conservatives have asked for a recount in the West Midlands - which would suggest the Tories fear Andy Street may have lost.
I’m told fewer than 3,000 votes in it.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1786765852764676217
It's possible he has just lost.
Hall 78,790
Khan 59,482
Almost no change since 2021.
Tory 78790
Labour 59482
Lib Dem 14400
Green 9740
Reform 6518
2021 Results:
Tory 78368
Labour 57317
I think it’s been largely assumed that Street + Houchen were going to be the consolation prizes.
But yes, both events were symptomatic of a sharp decline in the quality of BBC election night coverage. They have recovered a bit since, to be fair, though hardly spectacularly.