Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
The postal votes will favour the Tories as they will mostly come from older voters. I've been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only be because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.
I was preparing for egg on my face when I said Susan Hall would get within 5%.
I’m now starting to think the unthinkable and that she might win.
Based on next to nothing?
Betfair had remain still in contention, long after almost all PB’ers could see this was impossible, based on one throwaway comment on the BBC probably intended to maintain some interest in a contest that was effectively over.
You can still get £109 at 6.2 on Hall from Betfair Exchange. Just sayin...
I may be coming over all Rogerdamus here but come Sunday when Khan has won, relatively well but with a reduced majority, I’ll be enjoying the threads here.
This may be a hostage to fortune. I don’t think it is.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
They tend to like Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, etc, so it can't be that.
In Sadiq Khan's case, the dislike (from some) is not about race. It's about his religion.
I’ve got left wing friends who cordially despise him, and it’s quite visceral. They think he’s depressing and mendacious and not good for London. Even if he wins it’s not gonna be some triumph. He really should have stepped aside for a better Labour candidate with new ideas
Good to hear that my fellow lefties are cordial in their visceral hatred.
What I mean is they are fairly polite about him (I’m not) because he’s one of theirs. But then they say “he really shouldn’t be standing again”, they grimace and sigh at the idea of him, they say “oh god, not kahn again, what’s he ever done” - it is emotional/visceral
I’m a lot blunter
People called Kahn tend to be Jewish. People called Khan tend to be Moslem. It's a minor difference but a lot can hang on it.
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
The postal votes will favour the Tories as they will mostly come from older voters. I've been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only be because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.
YouGov's latest poll had Sadiq Khan 22% ahead.
Do they make much effort at estimating pollout for locals though? If everyone voted Sadiq would clearly win easily. But its hard to find people enthused by him in left, right or centre. And easy to find people who rightly or wrong have a visceral dislike.
Can I just say I have been popping in and out today due to my Grandfather duties and have found this forum quite the best place for information and analysis
As I said yesterday poor day tor conservatives, good for labour and others, but much as I expected
I propose a huge thank you to those who have made this medium so outstanding
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
Higher turnout in Deplorable than Progressive areas is a definite worry.
Sky news projection based on locals Labour 294 seats and Conservatives 242, LDs 38
I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.
The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winnning.
Sky news projection based on locals Labour 294 seats and Conservatives 242, LDs 38
I don't believe this. I think there are too many factors at present that are warping the local results that will fade into the background at the GE. I don't necessarily think Starmer will get the landslide people are expecting but I think he will get a comfortable working majority.
You can still get £109 at 6.2 on Hall from Betfair Exchange. Just sayin...
I may be coming over all Rogerdamus here but come Sunday when Khan has won, relatively well but with a reduced majority, I’ll be enjoying the threads here.
This may be a hostage to fortune. I don’t think it is.
Khan was only 4.7pp ahead in the first-round in 2021. There's not much scope for him to win with a reduced majority.
Horfield: Labour HOLD (x2) Stoke Bishop: Conservative HOLD (x2) Bishopston: Greens HOLD (x2) Ashley Down: Greens HOLD (x2) Bishopsworth: Labour GAIN from Conservative (x1), Conservative HOLD (x1)
Declared 16/70 Labour 6 (+1) Conservative 5 (-1) Green 5 (+1) Lib Dem 0 (-1)
You can still get £109 at 6.2 on Hall from Betfair Exchange. Just sayin...
I may be coming over all Rogerdamus here but come Sunday when Khan has won, relatively well but with a reduced majority, I’ll be enjoying the threads here.
This may be a hostage to fortune. I don’t think it is.
Of course you're right. We are (well me is) spinning rumour into twine in the absence of fact, if you'll excuse the Chris Morris-ing . But as I said I am struck: where are Khan's legions? Where is he winning?
I was preparing for egg on my face when I said Susan Hall would get within 5%.
I’m now starting to think the unthinkable and that she might win.
It’s all going to be a bit FA cup semifinal Man Utd v Coventry. Sadiq Utd cruising v the unfancied and unfashionable Susan City and then, it goes a bit weird and everyone thinks “could the underdog actually do it???”
And it’s so close and then Sadiq Utd nick it on penalties, everyone had a laugh thinking Sadiq Utd would lose but realising it was always going to be this result.
Sky news projection based on locals Labour 294 seats and Conservatives 242, LDs 38
I don't believe this. I think there are too many factors at present that are warping the local results that will fade into the background at the GE. I don't necessarily think Starmer will get the landslide people are expecting but I think he will get a comfortable working majority.
I don't believe it either. The key takeaway from the local election results so far are that Labour are winning in the places where they need to win. They are flipping places like Basildon, Cannock Chase, Redditch.
Labour have an extremely efficient vote operation.
You can still get £109 at 6.2 on Hall from Betfair Exchange. Just sayin...
I may be coming over all Rogerdamus here but come Sunday when Khan has won, relatively well but with a reduced majority, I’ll be enjoying the threads here.
This may be a hostage to fortune. I don’t think it is.
Khan was only 4.7pp ahead in the first-round in 2021. There's not much scope for him to win with a reduced majority.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
Higher turnout in Deplorable than Progressive areas is a definite worry.
But yes I think he should still win. 🤞
I voted early and in the Northern Oirish tradition.
So if Count Binface wins by 12 million votes, blame me.
Guy on Radio 4 a bit ago said that while they think the London result will be closer than the polls suggest, nobody in Labour or the Tories thinks Khan won't win. Make of that what you will.
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
The postal votes will favour the Tories as they will mostly come from older voters. I've been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only be because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.
YouGov's latest poll had Sadiq Khan 22% ahead.
Would they have adjusted for only those that voted ?
Comments
Betfair had remain still in contention, long after almost all PB’ers could see this was impossible, based on one throwaway comment on the BBC probably intended to maintain some interest in a contest that was effectively over.
This may be a hostage to fortune. I don’t think it is.
Suddenly the Total Loser tag doesn’t quite fit
Fix the boats, get Reform voters back…
As I said yesterday poor day tor conservatives, good for labour and others, but much as I expected
I propose a huge thank you to those who have made this medium so outstanding
Thank you
But yes I think he should still win. 🤞
Lab 294
Con 242
LD 38
Others 66
I think expectation would be that Lab would do better due to tactical voting. Also impact of Reform who didn't stand in most Locals.
But even so, projection seems extraordinary given Lab Majority is still 1.19 on Betfair.
The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winnning.
Horfield: Labour HOLD (x2)
Stoke Bishop: Conservative HOLD (x2)
Bishopston: Greens HOLD (x2)
Ashley Down: Greens HOLD (x2)
Bishopsworth: Labour GAIN from Conservative (x1), Conservative HOLD (x1)
Declared 16/70
Labour 6 (+1)
Conservative 5 (-1)
Green 5 (+1)
Lib Dem 0 (-1)
NEW THREAD
And it’s so close and then Sadiq Utd nick it on penalties, everyone had a laugh thinking Sadiq Utd would lose but realising it was always going to be this result.
Labour have an extremely efficient vote operation.
So if Count Binface wins by 12 million votes, blame me.