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Is a trifecta of Tory mayoral victories on the cards? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,370
    Scott_xP said:

    @REWearmouth

    Labour says it has won the York & North Yorkshire Mayor race

    “This is a truly historic result in York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer's Labour party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard," says a spokeswoman

    Big win. About 7-8%ish lead on a quick visual.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,055
    Tories wiped out in Castle Point, where they polled about 76% at the general election. Independents have apparently taken all their seats.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,827
    edited May 2024

    Labour have just won the Mayoralty in York and North Yorkshire. 15k majority.

    Good result for Labour, who win on 35%

    Conservative 27.3%
    Liberal Democrat 16.2%
    Green 8.0%
    Independent (who used to be in the Yorkshire Party) 7.0%
    Independent (who used to be in the Conservative Party) 6.5%

    I wonder what would have happened under the old voting system?
  • TOPPING said:

    I agree. Interesting if there was someone with a smidge more personality then it might be much closer. Shaun Bailey would have wiped the floor with Khan this time round.
    I think you're slightly overestimating Bailey as a candidate there, and underestimating Hall (and also assume you're talking about Bailey as was - the CCHQ photos would have utterly done for him this year).

    Bailey had a bit more appeal to the centre with a back story about a difficult childhood, working hard, helping disadvantaged kids and so on. But he wasn't massively charismatic, nor was he terribly politically astute. And it isn't actually all about the centre - Hall does have an outer London appeal to blue-ish suburbs - that drives Tory turnout to a degree and pulls in the populist voters with no terribly coherent outlook but a general desire to stick two fingers up to what they think of as the elites.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.

    I'd assumed a Tory victory.

    They were defeated by 15,000 votes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,407
    Andy_JS said:

    With about half the councils declared the Tories are down 218 seats, although perhaps the remaining councils have more seats at stake.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729

    And have held 185, so running at greater than 50% losses.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,124
    @BestForBritain
    The extent to which Sunak has checked out leaves me agog. Not only is this like he asked AI to compose the blandest, flaccidest, most defeated statement, but the content is the same he's used for 18 months resulting in his party slipping further behind!

    What's the strategy? ~AA

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1786386515741770011
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,405

    The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.

    I'd assumed a Tory victory.

    They were defeated by 15,000 votes.

    York is Labour, North Yorkshire largely Tory but given the national picture overall it clearly went Labour
  • AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 144

    🤮

    God didn’t create North Yorkshire for it to go Labour ☹️

    I don't understand why you thought it would be a win for the Tories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,055
    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,827
    Foxy said:

    And have held 185, so running at greater than 50% losses.
    Although they have re-overtaken the LibDems in raw numbers, 191 to 184.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,370

    The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.

    I'd assumed a Tory victory.

    They were defeated by 15,000 votes.

    About a 10% swing on top of 2022/23 local results, let alone prior GEs.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,615
    Scott_xP said:

    @REWearmouth

    Labour says it has won the York & North Yorkshire Mayor race

    “This is a truly historic result in York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer's Labour party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard," says a spokeswoman

    Rishi’s backyard is massive though so I imagine most constituencies border it.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    The Galloway surge in Rochdale has netted them 2 seats and one of them was from an
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories wiped out in Castle Point, where they polled about 76% at the general election. Independents have apparently taken all their seats.

    It didn't help that the Conservatives failed to get 13 of their candidates nominated 'due to human error'
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,335
    viewcode said:

    Con have lost 215 after 53 of 107 councils declared. At that rate their losses will be near to 400 than 500.

    How do you get that? The Conservatives are defending 989 seats. So far they have retained 184 and lost 219, well over half. Unless the rate of loss changes, they should lose over 500.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,055

    Ilford North is 50% Muslim.
    Do you mean Ilford South?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,332
    HYUFD said:

    York is Labour, North Yorkshire largely Tory but given the national picture overall it clearly went Labour
    There was an opinion poll that pointed to a Labour win.

    Rishi Sunak now lives under the control of a Labour mayor!
  • Good result for Labour, who win on 35%

    Conservative 27.3%
    Liberal Democrat 16.2%
    Green 8.0%
    Independent 7.0%
    Other Independent 6.5%

    I wonder what would have happened under the old voting system?
    You'd have thought Labour would still have won, and quite easily. The 37.7% of the vote that went to Lib Dem, Green or independent would have needed to split very heavily to Tory over Labour, which seems extremely unlikely in the current political climate.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,827
    edited May 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    Khan was ahead, by a small amount, in the Camden+Barnet constituency last time around, 67610 to 65822.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,636
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories wiped out in Castle Point, where they polled about 76% at the general election. Independents have apparently taken all their seats.

    I believe they didn't fill out their nomination papers properly. Round there, independent is generally to the right of the Conservatives.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,596
    Andy_JS said:

    With about half the councils declared the Tories are down 218 seats, although perhaps the remaining councils have more seats at stake.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729

    Yeah.

    If Wikipedia is to be believed, the Conservatives went into this batch of elections defending 989 seats (which I think is where the 500 losses thing came from- losing half).

    The BBC front page has the Conservatives on 188 (-221), so that's 409 ex-Conservative seats declared and a retention rate of 46%.

    Story-wise, is it now a steady drip flow of bad news for the government until the West Midlands result tomorrow?

    And then London?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,124
    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,124
    @KevinASchofield

    Labour say they've also gained Adur District Council in West Sussex, which the Tories have held since 2002 and has never been Labour-run.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,872
    This is just WONDERFUL from Penny Mordaunt
    https://youtu.be/rQZP5OCsaQg?si=WNzt4LUbQFEd8wnq
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited May 2024
    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779?s=46&t=XZnvDoD4UNkhJcaydPyoWA

    Kate has backed off from the Hall is ahead in Barnet thing
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,191
    edited May 2024

    There was an opinion poll that pointed to a Labour win.

    Rishi Sunak now lives under the control of a Labour mayor!
    Well, he lives in an area where there is a Labour mayor. It's a bit much to talk of anyone being under the Control of an elected official.

    Also, he lives most of the time in London which, at time of writing, already has a Labour mayor.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,091
    HYUFD said:

    York is Labour, North Yorkshire largely Tory but given the national picture overall it clearly went Labour
    The rural vote is abandoning you. Can't think why [checks notes], oh yeah, what you have done to farming.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,407
    Greens doing well in the far East:

    Suffolk PCC Election Result:

    🌳 CON: 40.2% (-14.5)
    🌹 LAB: 31.7% (+8.7)
    🌍 GRN: 17.1% (+3.5)
    🔶 LDM: 11.0% (+2.3)

    Conservative HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    electionmaps.uk/le2024
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Norwich results in and as predicted by yours truly a poorish result for Labour - 2 wards lost to the Greens but they managed to win back a ward where their councillor had defected to indy over Gaza by just 49 votes over him.
    Crucially Council is now
    19 Lab
    15 Green
    3 LD
    2 Independent (Lab defect to Indy over Gaza)

    Greens can build a ruling coalition
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,405
    edited May 2024
    Rishi flown up to Teeside to congratulate Ben Houchen, Houchen looking distinctly underwhelmed.

    Rishi delighted and brimming with enthusiasm however as Houchen has clearly helped Rishi more than Rishi has helped Houchen
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    edited May 2024
    Not looking good for Labour on Oxford City Council at all. Two very safe wards going to recounts vs the anti-LTN indies.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,501
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    They're still on verification, so that sounds unlikely.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,827

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779?s=46&t=XZnvDoD4UNkhJcaydPyoWA

    Kate has backed off from the Hall is ahead in Barnet thing

    I wonder whether some of the Hallites are adopting Trumpite tactics and think that if they just say they're winning, they can always follow-up on their eventual defeat with claims that the vote was rigged.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,055
    edited May 2024

    The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.

    I'd assumed a Tory victory.

    They were defeated by 15,000 votes.

    I'm not shocked. York itself is one of the most left-wing places in the country these days, and it has a pretty big population compared to the rest of North Yorks, (about 140,000 in the urban area).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,124
    @HannahAlOthman

    Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,744

    The rural vote is abandoning you. Can't think why [checks notes], oh yeah, what you have done to farming.
    I doubt its that - how many people in rural parts are actually involved in farming? I live in rural wilts, know a few farmers, but the days of a farmer employing 20 locals are gone.

    The Tory vote is going down in rural parts for the same reasons as elsewhere - been in too long, mortgages have gone up (external factors mainly, but blamed on the government - see also COL).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,332
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi flown up to Teeside to congratulate Ben Houchen, Houchen looking distinctly underwhelmed.

    Rishi delighted and brimming with enthusiasm however as Houchen has clearly helped Rishi more than Rishi has helped Houchen

    Wait until next week if/when they announce the cancellation of investment in Teesside.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,405

    Khan was ahead, by a small amount, in the Camden+Barnet constituency last time around, 67610 to 65822.
    Yes, if the London Mayoral election was tied then Camden and Barnet should go clearly Tory.

    Enfield and Haringey, City and East and Greenwich and Lewisham would be the key swing areas closest to the London wide result
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,744
    Scott_xP said:

    @HannahAlOthman

    Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”


    The baby doesn't look impressed.

    (No - I don't mean the one in the suit...)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,949
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi flown up to Teeside to congratulate Ben Houchen, Houchen looking distinctly underwhelmed.

    Rishi delighted and brimming with enthusiasm however as Houchen has clearly helped Rishi more than Rishi has helped Houchen

    And some on here had a go at you yesterday but as so often you are correct
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,407
    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,744

    I wonder whether some of the Hallites are adopting Trumpite tactics and think that if they just say they're winning, they can always follow-up on their eventual defeat with claims that the vote was rigged.
    They can keep doing it for a while as I am currently in profit on Hall...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,827
    AlsoLei said:

    They're still on verification, so that sounds unlikely.
    Party agents at verification can see the ballot papers. You do some box counts (tallies of the papers you see from different wards). You then have a pretty good idea of the result.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,603
    edited May 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,636
    Con hold Walsall, with no changes. I wonder why Walsall has moved so far to the right.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,787
    Off-topic, if I may.

    I went for a swim this morning in Peterborough Lido, near the river in Peterborough. A 50-metre outside pool, but heated, it was rather lovely. The cathedral is easily visible from the building.

    It didn't have 'noom', but I'd recommend a dip there to anyone.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    AlsoLei said:

    They're still on verification, so that sounds unlikely.
    She's just tweeting again pulling back from the claim
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,501
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi flown up to Teeside to congratulate Ben Houchen, Houchen looking distinctly underwhelmed.

    Rishi delighted and brimming with enthusiasm however as Houchen has clearly helped Rishi more than Rishi has helped Houchen

    I suspect that Houchen's been up all night, which might account for some of the difference in demeanour - but, yes, the contrast was startling, wasn't it?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,827
    viewcode said:

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    viewcode said:

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    See above though
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,124
    @thhamilton

    "Labour is winning in Rishi Sunak's back yard" is now true whether you take that to mean North Yorkshire, Southampton or Westminster. Not California, though.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    The Galloway surge in Rochdale only netted two seats but the swings were stonking.

    Central Rochdale (Rochdale)
    Workers Party 2,016 (53.0%, +53.0 compared to 2021)
    Labour 1,541 (40.5%, -44.1%)
    Liberal Democrats 144 (3.8%, -1.3%)
    Conservative 106 (2.8%, -3.9%)
    No Green candidate (3.6% in 2021)
    Workers Party GAIN from Labour
    Swing 48.5% from Labour to Workers Party

    Milkstone and Deeplish
    Workers Party 1,812 (62.4%, +62.4% compared to 2021)
    Labour 713 (24.5%, -38.9%)
    Liberal Democrats 152 (5.2%, -14.8%)
    Conservative 118 (4.1%, -8.8%)
    Green 111 (3.8%, +0.1%)
    Workers Party GAIN from Labour
    Swing 50.6% from Labour to Workers Party
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,055
    edited May 2024
    Sean_F said:

    Con hold Walsall, with no changes. I wonder why Walsall has moved so far to the right.

    Because it's full of lower middle-class and upper working-class voters, with not many rich or poor ones. That suits the Tories. (There is a large EM population but it's concentrated in a few safe Labour wards). Next door to Cannock Chase which has moved in the same direction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,405

    The rural vote is abandoning you. Can't think why [checks notes], oh yeah, what you have done to farming.
    It will be down given the national trend but still most rural areas should in the end go Conservative just as most inner city areas went Labour in 2019.

    It is suburbs and market and commuter towns which decide elections not rural areas or inner cities. The Tories haven't done much different to farming than what they were doing in 2019, indeed if anything Rishi is more protectionist on free trade deals than Boris and Truss were
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,153

    This is just WONDERFUL from Penny Mordaunt
    https://youtu.be/rQZP5OCsaQg?si=WNzt4LUbQFEd8wnq

    As I have repeatedly said she has the ability on her feet to be an excellent LOTO and I think she will be if she holds on. I can imagine that wit making PM Starmer's time at PMQs somewhat uncomfortable. Will she be there though? That's looking a slightly larger question today than before these elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,405
    Labour gain Adur
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,091
    Scott_xP said:

    @HannahAlOthman

    Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”


    Fuuuuuuck. Read the room Rishi. You see the glum guy there to your right? The one who refused to call himself a Conservative? The one who refused to even wear a blue rosette at the declaration? The one whose victory is the death knell for all your MPs in the region?

    His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.

    So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.

    No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,542
    Rishi's going to be all over Street too if Street wins the WM mayoralty. It's like the scooby doo plot, mask off and Oh guess what they were Conservative all along xD
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    viewcode said:

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    Ferguson has backtracked on this Tweet
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,091

    Wait until next week if/when they announce the cancellation of investment in Teesside.
    Sunak missed a trick not announcing it this afternoon.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,332
    Foxy said:

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    The baby doesn't look impressed.

    (No - I don't mean the one in the suit...)
    Sunak really should adopt the soapbox from Major, for the 1992 vibes as well as disguising his lack of height.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Going to be very tight on 500 under/ over based on current figures
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,407

    Sunak missed a trick not announcing it this afternoon.
    It's a step forward for him. He could have announced it last week!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,603

    Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,615
    Sean_F said:

    Con hold Walsall, with no changes. I wonder why Walsall has moved so far to the right.

    It is quite strange considering the rest of Poland moved back towards the centre.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,427

    Fuuuuuuck. Read the room Rishi. You see the glum guy there to your right? The one who refused to call himself a Conservative? The one who refused to even wear a blue rosette at the declaration? The one whose victory is the death knell for all your MPs in the region?

    His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.

    So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.

    No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
    What on earth is going on with Sunak’s suit there? He looks like a trainee real estate agent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,153
    viewcode said:

    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
    I see that her description is, "one of the most creative journalists I know." Well, quite.
  • DM_Andy said:

    The Galloway surge in Rochdale only netted two seats but the swings were stonking.

    Central Rochdale (Rochdale)
    Workers Party 2,016 (53.0%, +53.0 compared to 2021)
    Labour 1,541 (40.5%, -44.1%)
    Liberal Democrats 144 (3.8%, -1.3%)
    Conservative 106 (2.8%, -3.9%)
    No Green candidate (3.6% in 2021)
    Workers Party GAIN from Labour
    Swing 48.5% from Labour to Workers Party

    Milkstone and Deeplish
    Workers Party 1,812 (62.4%, +62.4% compared to 2021)
    Labour 713 (24.5%, -38.9%)
    Liberal Democrats 152 (5.2%, -14.8%)
    Conservative 118 (4.1%, -8.8%)
    Green 111 (3.8%, +0.1%)
    Workers Party GAIN from Labour
    Swing 50.6% from Labour to Workers Party

    That actually all feels pretty underwhelming to me. Galloway's grouping have just had a big by-election win and will have piled people enthused by that in to try to back it up. Two out of twenty seats contested, Labour still comfortably in control - Galloway probably isn't thumbing through curtain catalogues for his constituency office.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,636
    It looks as if Basildon will be going to NOC.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,392
    Khan worth backing at 1.12?

    A 12% return overnight not to be sniffed at, but don't like betting when other people might actually know how the counts are going...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,153

    Going to be very tight on 500 under/ over based on current figures

    If I was betting right now I would go for over.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,870
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm not shocked. York itself is one of the most left-wing places in the country these days, and it has a pretty big population compared to the rest of North Yorks, (about 140,000 in the urban area).
    While true to an extent (Cons haven't held City of York council for ages) most of the rest of N Yorks has been pretty blue, including the York Outer parliamentary constituency - so York overall is not some hotbed of leftism. In other areas, such as Harrogate, LDs have been stronger.

    This is a big result for Lab, but not a massive shock given the national picture and the by election result in Selby and Ainsty.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Humberside PCC is a good result for the Tories though one that the old voting system might have meant a Labour gain:

    Jonathan Evison (Con) 51,083
    Simon O'Rourke (Lab) 45,846
    Bob Morgan (Lib Dem) 30,848
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    viewcode said:

    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
    That makes less sense than the Chewbacca defence. She's said why she retracted it. If she's lying about the retraction why do you think she's telling the truth about the initial claim?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,744
    DM_Andy said:

    Sunak really should adopt the soapbox from Major, for the 1992 vibes as well as disguising his lack of height.
    He would need a super size one though, otherwise he might still be shorter than the crowd...

    (I hate short jibes as much as the next man, but I can't help it...)
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,872
    edited May 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Adur

    Swing must be massive and loads of abstentions. I didn't vote.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,744

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Its Teaside, right?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,828
    Sean_F said:

    I believe they didn't fill out their nomination papers properly. Round there, independent is generally to the right of the Conservatives.
    I’m out of touch with my former stamping ground, so you may be right, but in my day Castle Point Conservatives were pretty right-wing. They were also a very tight-knit bunch. Newcomers not always welcome.
    The Canvey Island Independence people, IIRC, could easily be mistaken for ‘old-fashioned’ Labour.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,124

    What on earth is going on with Sunak’s suit there? He looks like a trainee real estate agent.
    Tech Bros rarely wear suits that fit
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Sean_F said:

    Con hold Walsall, with no changes. I wonder why Walsall has moved so far to the right.

    To get further away from Wolverhampton?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,427
    Scott_xP said:

    Tech Bros rarely wear suits that fit
    He’s very small and slight.
    The problem is that he DRESSES smaller and slighter.

    He deserves the pint-sized jibes.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,091
    Scott_xP said:

    Tech Bros rarely wear suits that fit
    Or a suit at all
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,201
    edited May 2024
    rkrkrk said:

    Khan worth backing at 1.12?

    A 12% return overnight not to be sniffed at, but don't like betting when other people might actually know how the counts are going...

    Hall tightened bigly on the Kate Ferguson story, now drifting just a shade.

    Edit tightening again.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640

    The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.

    I'd assumed a Tory victory.

    They were defeated by 15,000 votes.

    That is bonkers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,707

    🤮

    God didn’t create North Yorkshire for it to go Labour ☹️

    It's Rishi's personal vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,238

    The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.
    The agents there - and the last London mayoral count I went to, there were a lot of them there - will have a fair idea by now, unless it’s very close (which I doubt).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,332
    edited May 2024
    Labour lost all its seats in Pendle. Presumably to some Hamas pompom wavers?

    Edit: Not all seats declared yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,055
    edited May 2024
    Hall back to 7/1. (Was 35/1 for a time yesterday).

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.201750386
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,935
    PJH said:

    There was also a County Council by-election there yesterday, Sarisbury Ward. No change but a large swing

    Con 46.6% (-10.8)
    LD 34.3% (+21.3)
    Lab 13.2 (+0.7)
    Ind 5.7 (-7.6)

    No Hampshire Ind (4.0)

    Just thought I'd post it for completeness as Fareham was reviewed. Surprised LD vote was up rather than Labour, given neither were anywhere previously but perhaps shows that in former LD-ish areas there is still a tendency for the anti-Con vote to go to them.

    No danger to Ms Braverman.
    Libdems now have 8 councillors (up 4), Labour now has 1.
    The Libdems have been the largest party in a NOC council, Labour have never been that strong.
    The only chance of defeating Braverman is for the Labour vote to collapse in the LibDems favour. That's not going to happen this year.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,636
    "Go home and prepare for government."

    The SDP have taken a seat off Labour in Leeds.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Workers Party pick up a third Councillor, on Park Ward, Calderdale Council with 55%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,153
    DougSeal said:

    That makes less sense than the Chewbacca defence. She's said why she retracted it. If she's lying about the retraction why do you think she's telling the truth about the initial claim?
    Well obviously you never believe anything until its been officially denied.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,603
    DougSeal said:

    That makes less sense than the Chewbacca defence. She's said why she retracted it. If she's lying about the retraction why do you think she's telling the truth about the initial claim?
    She may be lying about the retraction because telling the truth about the retraction ("I am retracting that tweet because it proves I leaked data from a postal vote verification and that's illegal") would get her arrested.

    I don't know if that's what happened, but if it did it's not as inconsistent as you think
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,839
    Scott_xP said:

    @HannahAlOthman

    Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”


    He looks like Barcus Wroot.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,091
    rcs1000 said:

    If you believe @bigjohnowls, the Labour Party and the LibDems are also Tories.

    Which makes these elections results an incredible victory for them.
    The Tories are clearly cheating by entering so many candidates under fake names.

    Meanwhile I did chuckle at this from the Scab Unity party https://twitter.com/LeftUnityParty/status/1786356114197528958

    Big congratulations to the Blackburn Independents who won 9 seats and are now the official opposition. They campaigned on Gaza and the arrogance of Labour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,707

    This is just WONDERFUL from Penny Mordaunt
    https://youtu.be/rQZP5OCsaQg?si=WNzt4LUbQFEd8wnq

    In the context of the question, "wonderful" it wasn't.
    Cheered up her own troops, no doubt, but pretty crass.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,392
    Andy_JS said:

    Hall back to 7/1. (Was 35/1 for a time yesterday).

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.201750386

    Hard to know how much to read into it. Not a very liquid market.

    If someone *knew* Hall had won or had a strong suspicion as they were at the counts surely they'd buy up everything...
This discussion has been closed.