Labour says it has won the York & North Yorkshire Mayor race
“This is a truly historic result in York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer's Labour party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard," says a spokeswoman
Labour have just won the Mayoralty in York and North Yorkshire. 15k majority.
Good result for Labour, who win on 35%
Conservative 27.3% Liberal Democrat 16.2% Green 8.0% Independent (who used to be in the Yorkshire Party) 7.0% Independent (who used to be in the Conservative Party) 6.5%
I wonder what would have happened under the old voting system?
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.
I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Sadiq is going to win by 10+ points, this is just expectations management from Labour. There's no way it's actually close let alone it being a loss.
I agree. Interesting if there was someone with a smidge more personality then it might be much closer. Shaun Bailey would have wiped the floor with Khan this time round.
I think you're slightly overestimating Bailey as a candidate there, and underestimating Hall (and also assume you're talking about Bailey as was - the CCHQ photos would have utterly done for him this year).
Bailey had a bit more appeal to the centre with a back story about a difficult childhood, working hard, helping disadvantaged kids and so on. But he wasn't massively charismatic, nor was he terribly politically astute. And it isn't actually all about the centre - Hall does have an outer London appeal to blue-ish suburbs - that drives Tory turnout to a degree and pulls in the populist voters with no terribly coherent outlook but a general desire to stick two fingers up to what they think of as the elites.
@BestForBritain The extent to which Sunak has checked out leaves me agog. Not only is this like he asked AI to compose the blandest, flaccidest, most defeated statement, but the content is the same he's used for 18 months resulting in his party slipping further behind!
Labour says it has won the York & North Yorkshire Mayor race
“This is a truly historic result in York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer's Labour party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard," says a spokeswoman
Rishi’s backyard is massive though so I imagine most constituencies border it.
Con have lost 215 after 53 of 107 councils declared. At that rate their losses will be near to 400 than 500.
How do you get that? The Conservatives are defending 989 seats. So far they have retained 184 and lost 219, well over half. Unless the rate of loss changes, they should lose over 500.
Labour have just won the Mayoralty in York and North Yorkshire. 15k majority.
Good result for Labour, who win on 35%
Conservative 27.3% Liberal Democrat 16.2% Green 8.0% Independent 7.0% Other Independent 6.5%
I wonder what would have happened under the old voting system?
You'd have thought Labour would still have won, and quite easily. The 37.7% of the vote that went to Lib Dem, Green or independent would have needed to split very heavily to Tory over Labour, which seems extremely unlikely in the current political climate.
If Wikipedia is to be believed, the Conservatives went into this batch of elections defending 989 seats (which I think is where the 500 losses thing came from- losing half).
The BBC front page has the Conservatives on 188 (-221), so that's 409 ex-Conservative seats declared and a retention rate of 46%.
Story-wise, is it now a steady drip flow of bad news for the government until the West Midlands result tomorrow?
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Norwich results in and as predicted by yours truly a poorish result for Labour - 2 wards lost to the Greens but they managed to win back a ward where their councillor had defected to indy over Gaza by just 49 votes over him. Crucially Council is now 19 Lab 15 Green 3 LD 2 Independent (Lab defect to Indy over Gaza)
Kate has backed off from the Hall is ahead in Barnet thing
I wonder whether some of the Hallites are adopting Trumpite tactics and think that if they just say they're winning, they can always follow-up on their eventual defeat with claims that the vote was rigged.
The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.
I'd assumed a Tory victory.
They were defeated by 15,000 votes.
I'm not shocked. York itself is one of the most left-wing places in the country these days, and it has a pretty big population compared to the rest of North Yorks, (about 140,000 in the urban area).
The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.
I'd assumed a Tory victory.
They were defeated by 15,000 votes.
York is Labour, North Yorkshire largely Tory but given the national picture overall it clearly went Labour
The rural vote is abandoning you. Can't think why [checks notes], oh yeah, what you have done to farming.
I doubt its that - how many people in rural parts are actually involved in farming? I live in rural wilts, know a few farmers, but the days of a farmer employing 20 locals are gone.
The Tory vote is going down in rural parts for the same reasons as elsewhere - been in too long, mortgages have gone up (external factors mainly, but blamed on the government - see also COL).
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.
Kate has backed off from the Hall is ahead in Barnet thing
I wonder whether some of the Hallites are adopting Trumpite tactics and think that if they just say they're winning, they can always follow-up on their eventual defeat with claims that the vote was rigged.
They can keep doing it for a while as I am currently in profit on Hall...
They're still on verification, so that sounds unlikely.
Party agents at verification can see the ballot papers. You do some box counts (tallies of the papers you see from different wards). You then have a pretty good idea of the result.
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
I went for a swim this morning in Peterborough Lido, near the river in Peterborough. A 50-metre outside pool, but heated, it was rather lovely. The cathedral is easily visible from the building.
It didn't have 'noom', but I'd recommend a dip there to anyone.
Rishi flown up to Teeside to congratulate Ben Houchen, Houchen looking distinctly underwhelmed.
Rishi delighted and brimming with enthusiasm however as Houchen has clearly helped Rishi more than Rishi has helped Houchen
I suspect that Houchen's been up all night, which might account for some of the difference in demeanour - but, yes, the contrast was startling, wasn't it?
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
"Labour is winning in Rishi Sunak's back yard" is now true whether you take that to mean North Yorkshire, Southampton or Westminster. Not California, though.
The Galloway surge in Rochdale only netted two seats but the swings were stonking.
Central Rochdale (Rochdale) Workers Party 2,016 (53.0%, +53.0 compared to 2021) Labour 1,541 (40.5%, -44.1%) Liberal Democrats 144 (3.8%, -1.3%) Conservative 106 (2.8%, -3.9%) No Green candidate (3.6% in 2021) Workers Party GAIN from Labour Swing 48.5% from Labour to Workers Party
Milkstone and Deeplish Workers Party 1,812 (62.4%, +62.4% compared to 2021) Labour 713 (24.5%, -38.9%) Liberal Democrats 152 (5.2%, -14.8%) Conservative 118 (4.1%, -8.8%) Green 111 (3.8%, +0.1%) Workers Party GAIN from Labour Swing 50.6% from Labour to Workers Party
Con hold Walsall, with no changes. I wonder why Walsall has moved so far to the right.
Because it's full of lower middle-class and upper working-class voters, with not many rich or poor ones. That suits the Tories. (There is a large EM population but it's concentrated in a few safe Labour wards). Next door to Cannock Chase which has moved in the same direction.
The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.
I'd assumed a Tory victory.
They were defeated by 15,000 votes.
York is Labour, North Yorkshire largely Tory but given the national picture overall it clearly went Labour
The rural vote is abandoning you. Can't think why [checks notes], oh yeah, what you have done to farming.
It will be down given the national trend but still most rural areas should in the end go Conservative just as most inner city areas went Labour in 2019.
It is suburbs and market and commuter towns which decide elections not rural areas or inner cities. The Tories haven't done much different to farming than what they were doing in 2019, indeed if anything Rishi is more protectionist on free trade deals than Boris and Truss were
As I have repeatedly said she has the ability on her feet to be an excellent LOTO and I think she will be if she holds on. I can imagine that wit making PM Starmer's time at PMQs somewhat uncomfortable. Will she be there though? That's looking a slightly larger question today than before these elections.
Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”
Fuuuuuuck. Read the room Rishi. You see the glum guy there to your right? The one who refused to call himself a Conservative? The one who refused to even wear a blue rosette at the declaration? The one whose victory is the death knell for all your MPs in the region?
His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.
So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.
No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
Rishi's going to be all over Street too if Street wins the WM mayoralty. It's like the scooby doo plot, mask off and Oh guess what they were Conservative all along xD
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.
I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...
Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.
I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”
Fuuuuuuck. Read the room Rishi. You see the glum guy there to your right? The one who refused to call himself a Conservative? The one who refused to even wear a blue rosette at the declaration? The one whose victory is the death knell for all your MPs in the region?
His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.
So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.
No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
What on earth is going on with Sunak’s suit there? He looks like a trainee real estate agent.
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...
Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.
Hmm.
I see that her description is, "one of the most creative journalists I know." Well, quite.
The Galloway surge in Rochdale only netted two seats but the swings were stonking.
Central Rochdale (Rochdale) Workers Party 2,016 (53.0%, +53.0 compared to 2021) Labour 1,541 (40.5%, -44.1%) Liberal Democrats 144 (3.8%, -1.3%) Conservative 106 (2.8%, -3.9%) No Green candidate (3.6% in 2021) Workers Party GAIN from Labour Swing 48.5% from Labour to Workers Party
Milkstone and Deeplish Workers Party 1,812 (62.4%, +62.4% compared to 2021) Labour 713 (24.5%, -38.9%) Liberal Democrats 152 (5.2%, -14.8%) Conservative 118 (4.1%, -8.8%) Green 111 (3.8%, +0.1%) Workers Party GAIN from Labour Swing 50.6% from Labour to Workers Party
That actually all feels pretty underwhelming to me. Galloway's grouping have just had a big by-election win and will have piled people enthused by that in to try to back it up. Two out of twenty seats contested, Labour still comfortably in control - Galloway probably isn't thumbing through curtain catalogues for his constituency office.
The Labour majority for the Yorkshire mayor is something of a shock.
I'd assumed a Tory victory.
They were defeated by 15,000 votes.
I'm not shocked. York itself is one of the most left-wing places in the country these days, and it has a pretty big population compared to the rest of North Yorks, (about 140,000 in the urban area).
While true to an extent (Cons haven't held City of York council for ages) most of the rest of N Yorks has been pretty blue, including the York Outer parliamentary constituency - so York overall is not some hotbed of leftism. In other areas, such as Harrogate, LDs have been stronger.
This is a big result for Lab, but not a massive shock given the national picture and the by election result in Selby and Ainsty.
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...
Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.
Hmm.
That makes less sense than the Chewbacca defence. She's said why she retracted it. If she's lying about the retraction why do you think she's telling the truth about the initial claim?
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.
I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
Tories wiped out in Castle Point, where they polled about 76% at the general election. Independents have apparently taken all their seats.
I believe they didn't fill out their nomination papers properly. Round there, independent is generally to the right of the Conservatives.
I’m out of touch with my former stamping ground, so you may be right, but in my day Castle Point Conservatives were pretty right-wing. They were also a very tight-knit bunch. Newcomers not always welcome. The Canvey Island Independence people, IIRC, could easily be mistaken for ‘old-fashioned’ Labour.
Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”
Fuuuuuuck. Read the room Rishi. You see the glum guy there to your right? The one who refused to call himself a Conservative? The one who refused to even wear a blue rosette at the declaration? The one whose victory is the death knell for all your MPs in the region?
His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.
So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.
No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
What on earth is going on with Sunak’s suit there? He looks like a trainee real estate agent.
Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”
Fuuuuuuck. Read the room Rishi. You see the glum guy there to your right? The one who refused to call himself a Conservative? The one who refused to even wear a blue rosette at the declaration? The one whose victory is the death knell for all your MPs in the region?
His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.
So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.
No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
What on earth is going on with Sunak’s suit there? He looks like a trainee real estate agent.
Tech Bros rarely wear suits that fit
He’s very small and slight. The problem is that he DRESSES smaller and slighter.
Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”
Fuuuuuuck. Read the room Rishi. You see the glum guy there to your right? The one who refused to call himself a Conservative? The one who refused to even wear a blue rosette at the declaration? The one whose victory is the death knell for all your MPs in the region?
His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.
So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.
No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
What on earth is going on with Sunak’s suit there? He looks like a trainee real estate agent.
Giving me flashbacks to the 1990s when half the local Tories on Bridgnorth DC started calling themselves Independents.
Led eventually to much hilarity when there was a schism over the creation of Shropshire UA and the blocs split into the Tories with Independents who led the council whilst the opposition was the Independents with Tories.
I once knew an old LD Councillor who called them CISCMAI - "Conservative in Sheep's Clothing Masquerading as Independent"
Independents. Residents. Ratepayers.
All Tories.
If you believe @bigjohnowls, the Labour Party and the LibDems are also Tories.
Which makes these elections results an incredible victory for them.
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.
I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.
The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.
The agents there - and the last London mayoral count I went to, there were a lot of them there - will have a fair idea by now, unless it’s very close (which I doubt).
Ok 2nd. In Suella's constituency where the Council has 4 more LibDems and 1 more Labour councillors.
There was also a County Council by-election there yesterday, Sarisbury Ward. No change but a large swing
Con 46.6% (-10.8) LD 34.3% (+21.3) Lab 13.2 (+0.7) Ind 5.7 (-7.6)
No Hampshire Ind (4.0)
Just thought I'd post it for completeness as Fareham was reviewed. Surprised LD vote was up rather than Labour, given neither were anywhere previously but perhaps shows that in former LD-ish areas there is still a tendency for the anti-Con vote to go to them.
No danger to Ms Braverman.
Libdems now have 8 councillors (up 4), Labour now has 1. The Libdems have been the largest party in a NOC council, Labour have never been that strong. The only chance of defeating Braverman is for the Labour vote to collapse in the LibDems favour. That's not going to happen this year.
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...
Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.
Hmm.
That makes less sense than the Chewbacca defence. She's said why she retracted it. If she's lying about the retraction why do you think she's telling the truth about the initial claim?
Well obviously you never believe anything until its been officially denied.
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...
Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.
Hmm.
That makes less sense than the Chewbacca defence. She's said why she retracted it. If she's lying about the retraction why do you think she's telling the truth about the initial claim?
She may be lying about the retraction because telling the truth about the retraction ("I am retracting that tweet because it proves I leaked data from a postal vote verification and that's illegal") would get her arrested.
I don't know if that's what happened, but if it did it's not as inconsistent as you think
Giving me flashbacks to the 1990s when half the local Tories on Bridgnorth DC started calling themselves Independents.
Led eventually to much hilarity when there was a schism over the creation of Shropshire UA and the blocs split into the Tories with Independents who led the council whilst the opposition was the Independents with Tories.
I once knew an old LD Councillor who called them CISCMAI - "Conservative in Sheep's Clothing Masquerading as Independent"
Independents. Residents. Ratepayers.
All Tories.
If you believe @bigjohnowls, the Labour Party and the LibDems are also Tories.
Which makes these elections results an incredible victory for them.
The Tories are clearly cheating by entering so many candidates under fake names.
Big congratulations to the Blackburn Independents who won 9 seats and are now the official opposition. They campaigned on Gaza and the arrogance of Labour.
Comments
Conservative 27.3%
Liberal Democrat 16.2%
Green 8.0%
Independent (who used to be in the Yorkshire Party) 7.0%
Independent (who used to be in the Conservative Party) 6.5%
I wonder what would have happened under the old voting system?
Bailey had a bit more appeal to the centre with a back story about a difficult childhood, working hard, helping disadvantaged kids and so on. But he wasn't massively charismatic, nor was he terribly politically astute. And it isn't actually all about the centre - Hall does have an outer London appeal to blue-ish suburbs - that drives Tory turnout to a degree and pulls in the populist voters with no terribly coherent outlook but a general desire to stick two fingers up to what they think of as the elites.
I'd assumed a Tory victory.
They were defeated by 15,000 votes.
The extent to which Sunak has checked out leaves me agog. Not only is this like he asked AI to compose the blandest, flaccidest, most defeated statement, but the content is the same he's used for 18 months resulting in his party slipping further behind!
What's the strategy? ~AA
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1786386515741770011
"Kate Ferguson
@kateferguson4
London Mayoral race update....
Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch
A Ulez bounce?"
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173
Rishi Sunak now lives under the control of a Labour mayor!
If Wikipedia is to be believed, the Conservatives went into this batch of elections defending 989 seats (which I think is where the 500 losses thing came from- losing half).
The BBC front page has the Conservatives on 188 (-221), so that's 409 ex-Conservative seats declared and a retention rate of 46%.
Story-wise, is it now a steady drip flow of bad news for the government until the West Midlands result tomorrow?
And then London?
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Labour say they've also gained Adur District Council in West Sussex, which the Tories have held since 2002 and has never been Labour-run.
https://youtu.be/rQZP5OCsaQg?si=WNzt4LUbQFEd8wnq
Kate has backed off from the Hall is ahead in Barnet thing
Also, he lives most of the time in London which, at time of writing, already has a Labour mayor.
Suffolk PCC Election Result:
🌳 CON: 40.2% (-14.5)
🌹 LAB: 31.7% (+8.7)
🌍 GRN: 17.1% (+3.5)
🔶 LDM: 11.0% (+2.3)
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2021.
electionmaps.uk/le2024
Crucially Council is now
19 Lab
15 Green
3 LD
2 Independent (Lab defect to Indy over Gaza)
Greens can build a ruling coalition
Rishi delighted and brimming with enthusiasm however as Houchen has clearly helped Rishi more than Rishi has helped Houchen
Rishi Sunak is in Teesside, says the Labour Party “threw everything could at this election.”
The Tory vote is going down in rural parts for the same reasons as elsewhere - been in too long, mortgages have gone up (external factors mainly, but blamed on the government - see also COL).
Enfield and Haringey, City and East and Greenwich and Lewisham would be the key swing areas closest to the London wide result
(No - I don't mean the one in the suit...)
Awks
If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
I went for a swim this morning in Peterborough Lido, near the river in Peterborough. A 50-metre outside pool, but heated, it was rather lovely. The cathedral is easily visible from the building.
It didn't have 'noom', but I'd recommend a dip there to anyone.
"Labour is winning in Rishi Sunak's back yard" is now true whether you take that to mean North Yorkshire, Southampton or Westminster. Not California, though.
Central Rochdale (Rochdale)
Workers Party 2,016 (53.0%, +53.0 compared to 2021)
Labour 1,541 (40.5%, -44.1%)
Liberal Democrats 144 (3.8%, -1.3%)
Conservative 106 (2.8%, -3.9%)
No Green candidate (3.6% in 2021)
Workers Party GAIN from Labour
Swing 48.5% from Labour to Workers Party
Milkstone and Deeplish
Workers Party 1,812 (62.4%, +62.4% compared to 2021)
Labour 713 (24.5%, -38.9%)
Liberal Democrats 152 (5.2%, -14.8%)
Conservative 118 (4.1%, -8.8%)
Green 111 (3.8%, +0.1%)
Workers Party GAIN from Labour
Swing 50.6% from Labour to Workers Party
It is suburbs and market and commuter towns which decide elections not rural areas or inner cities. The Tories haven't done much different to farming than what they were doing in 2019, indeed if anything Rishi is more protectionist on free trade deals than Boris and Truss were
His expression is what you should be wearing. But no, you had decided that Mayoralties were all that you need to stay in the job for as long as you possibly can, party be damned.
So the putsch appears to be off, though the slide towards ELE continues unabated. Sunak looks like the kind of chap who will go long so as to better ensure that the Good Times everyone is experiencing continues.
No chance of an election before at least mid-November.
But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...
Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.
Hmm.
A 12% return overnight not to be sniffed at, but don't like betting when other people might actually know how the counts are going...
This is a big result for Lab, but not a massive shock given the national picture and the by election result in Selby and Ainsty.
Jonathan Evison (Con) 51,083
Simon O'Rourke (Lab) 45,846
Bob Morgan (Lib Dem) 30,848
(I hate short jibes as much as the next man, but I can't help it...)
The Canvey Island Independence people, IIRC, could easily be mistaken for ‘old-fashioned’ Labour.
The problem is that he DRESSES smaller and slighter.
He deserves the pint-sized jibes.
Edit tightening again.
Which makes these elections results an incredible victory for them.
Edit: Not all seats declared yet.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.201750386
The Libdems have been the largest party in a NOC council, Labour have never been that strong.
The only chance of defeating Braverman is for the Labour vote to collapse in the LibDems favour. That's not going to happen this year.
The SDP have taken a seat off Labour in Leeds.
I don't know if that's what happened, but if it did it's not as inconsistent as you think
Meanwhile I did chuckle at this from the Scab Unity party https://twitter.com/LeftUnityParty/status/1786356114197528958
Big congratulations to the Blackburn Independents who won 9 seats and are now the official opposition. They campaigned on Gaza and the arrogance of Labour.
Cheered up her own troops, no doubt, but pretty crass.
If someone *knew* Hall had won or had a strong suspicion as they were at the counts surely they'd buy up everything...