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Is a trifecta of Tory mayoral victories on the cards? – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sean_F said:

    "Go home and prepare for government."

    The SDP have taken a seat off Labour in Leeds.

    SDP > Reform
    WEP > Reform
    WPB > Reform

    Lol
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories wiped out in Castle Point, where they polled about 76% at the general election. Independents have apparently taken all their seats.

    The Passport to Pimlico Party?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    rkrkrk said:

    Khan worth backing at 1.12?

    A 12% return overnight not to be sniffed at, but don't like betting when other people might actually know how the counts are going...

    Logic says he is surely going to win - the worst lead was 10%, but the whispers are intriguing and Gaza has affected other votes in areas with largish muslim populations.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Hall 7.2
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    Labour lost all its seats in Pendle. Presumably to some Hamas pompom wavers?

    Edit: Not all seats declared yet.

    As a white Christian I am not exactly the target market for said terrorist supporting cheerleaders. I get baffled by some of the SNP / cyber Nat reponses to issues where they pivot whatever it is back to why independence is the solution.

    But we're talking about local councillors. So lets say that my aunt (a Milkstone & Deeplish resident) goes to her newly elected councillor with an issue. Is the response that her planning issue can only be resolved by Gaza being Free from the River to the Sea?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286
    edited May 3
    First lost seat for Labour in Kirklees

    They need 11 wins to retain majority and are defending 12 seats from 2021.

    Pandoor, ex council leader, in Batley West defeated 52/19 to the Independent. That is a 38 point drop in the Labour vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
    No, they’re not, because unlike verification of polling station votes, in a postal vote verification the ballot papers are face down. You’d be lucky to get a glance at more than a few, as they are pulled out of envelopes.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,721

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
    Edinburgh
    Middlesbrough
    Loughborough

    I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga :wink:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    There is very little liquidity in London.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Hall 7.2

    Time for backers to lay off.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    There is very little liquidity in London.

    The Thames is pretty wet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Selebian said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
    Edinburgh
    Middlesbrough
    Loughborough

    I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga :wink:
    Luffbra please
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
    As the vote is closed (i.e. whether it leaks or not, the number of votes will not change) its less important, other than for punters like us. Leaking votes before the poll closes is an entirely different thing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?

    I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

    I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
    Sadiq is going to win by 10+ points, this is just expectations management from Labour. There's no way it's actually close let alone it being a loss.
    I agree. Interesting if there was someone with a smidge more personality then it might be much closer. Shaun Bailey would have wiped the floor with Khan this time round.
    The Shaun Bailey who had to resign his positions as chair of both the London Assembly's police and crime committee and its economy committee after he was caught partying during COVID lockdown?
    Absolutely yes that Shaun Bailey.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
    As the vote is closed (i.e. whether it leaks or not, the number of votes will not change) its less important, other than for punters like us. Leaking votes before the poll closes is an entirely different thing.
    Most of the postal vote verifications are held before the poll closes (and indeed before it opens)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Not going to be on my watchlist.

    While we are working on a detailed, factual review of the TV series „Tattooist of Auschwitz”, below you can read some initial comments of Dr. Wanda Witek-Malicka, a historian from the Research Center of the Museum.
    https://twitter.com/AuschwitzMuseum/status/1786388462007980258
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Sean_F said:

    "Go home and prepare for government."

    The SDP have taken a seat off Labour in Leeds.

    SDP > Reform
    WEP > Reform
    WPB > Reform

    Lol
    I think there were 10 Reform Party councillors before this round of elections, but I think none elected as Reform.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Betting post

    TORIES under 500 losses might now be value. DYOR
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,544
    It's absolutely possible for experienced canvassers to get a rough idea of what's happening from the verification stage of counting votes — because, for example, in 2015 that was how the LDs knew they were going to lose most of their seats so early in the night. They were saying it only an hour or so after close of voting, before most constituencies would have gone beyond the verification stage.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Adur

    Swing must be massive and loads of abstentions. I didn't vote.
    Swing over the council 15.5% Conservative to Labour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Betting post

    TORIES under 500 losses might now be value. DYOR

    They’re struggling back toward 50/50 lost and held, for sure
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    Con hold Solihull, No Change. Presumably, Andy Street has coat-tails.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,062

    There is very little liquidity in London.

    The Thames is pretty wet.
    But not liquid. It's very difficult to carry in your back pocket, and making change requires buckets :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited May 3
    Andy_JS said:

    It's absolutely possible for experienced canvassers to get a rough idea of what's happening from the verification stage of counting votes — because, for example, in 2015 that was how the LDs knew they were going to lose most of their seats so early in the night. They were saying it only an hour or so after close of voting, before most constituencies would have gone beyond the verification stage.

    If done properly, you can get a very precise idea. Two or three people can effectively count every vote in a box, if they know what they are doing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Andy_JS said:

    It's absolutely possible for experienced canvassers to get a rough idea of what's happening from the verification stage of counting votes — because, for example, in 2015 that was how the LDs knew they were going to lose most of their seats so early in the night. They were saying it only an hour or so after close of voting, before most constituencies would have gone beyond the verification stage.

    Absolutely. Sample a few boxes as they are being verified. No piles being made so you just tally off the party voted for.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
    As the vote is closed (i.e. whether it leaks or not, the number of votes will not change) its less important, other than for punters like us. Leaking votes before the poll closes is an entirely different thing.
    Most of the postal vote verifications are held before the poll closes (and indeed before it opens)
    But the vote closed last night at 10 pm, so a tweet now cannot affect the vote, surely?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
    Edinburgh
    Middlesbrough
    Loughborough

    I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga :wink:
    Luffbra please
    Loo-brush
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 774
    This week's average polling


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,544
    edited May 3
    67/107 councils declared

    Lab +102
    Con -244
    LD +35
    Ind +78
    Grn +25

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Andy_JS said:

    It's absolutely possible for experienced canvassers to get a rough idea of what's happening from the verification stage of counting votes — because, for example, in 2015 that was how the LDs knew they were going to lose most of their seats so early in the night. They were saying it only an hour or so after close of voting, before most constituencies would have gone beyond the verification stage.

    I remember Kerry McCarthy (Lab, Bristol East) getting a police caution for electoral fraud by revealing postal vote counts but that was a) exact numbers and b) before the close of poll so that was more serious on both counts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    Sean_F said:

    "Go home and prepare for government."

    The SDP have taken a seat off Labour in Leeds.

    I obviously gave up on them too soon.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Andy_JS said:

    64/107 councils declared

    Lab +102
    Con -242
    LD +35
    Ind +78
    Grn +24

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729

    That's looking like a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286
    Park ward in Halifax, Calderdale has a WPB candidate elected, although Labour romping home council wide.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,062
    Andy_JS said:

    65/107 councils declared

    Lab +101
    Con -242
    LD +33
    Ind +78
    Grn +25

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729

    At that rate Con will lose 404. If they are going to exceed 500 losses they'd better hurry up and lose faster.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    edited May 3

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?

    I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

    I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
    Sadiq is going to win by 10+ points, this is just expectations management from Labour. There's no way it's actually close let alone it being a loss.
    I agree. Interesting if there was someone with a smidge more personality then it might be much closer. Shaun Bailey would have wiped the floor with Khan this time round.
    I think you're slightly overestimating Bailey as a candidate there, and underestimating Hall (and also assume you're talking about Bailey as was - the CCHQ photos would have utterly done for him this year).

    Bailey had a bit more appeal to the centre with a back story about a difficult childhood, working hard, helping disadvantaged kids and so on. But he wasn't massively charismatic, nor was he terribly politically astute. And it isn't actually all about the centre - Hall does have an outer London appeal to blue-ish suburbs - that drives Tory turnout to a degree and pulls in the populist voters with no terribly coherent outlook but a general desire to stick two fingers up to what they think of as the elites.
    I first met him when he was running for Hammersmith. He has plenty of charisma.

    But point taken about Hall.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    IanB2 said:

    Betting post

    TORIES under 500 losses might now be value. DYOR

    They’re struggling back toward 50/50 lost and held, for sure
    And its just dipped under 50% for the very first time with seats held a handful more than seats lost.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286
    edited May 3
    Pro_Rata said:

    First lost seat for Labour in Kirklees

    They need 11 wins to retain majority and are defending 12 seats from 2021.

    Pandoor, ex council leader, in Batley West defeated 52/19 to the Independent. That is a 38 point drop in the Labour vote.

    Ind returned in Dewsbury West, Labour need to gain elsewhere now to not lose Kirklees to NOC.

    Defending councillor again -31% and lost 55/24 to long time fundraiser / campaigner / Heavy Woollen / lefty Tanisha Bramwell.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi flown up to Teeside to congratulate Ben Houchen, Houchen looking distinctly underwhelmed.

    Rishi delighted and brimming with enthusiasm however as Houchen has clearly helped Rishi more than Rishi has helped Houchen

    You’re good when you do gallows humour HY…..
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    edited May 3
    Also Sprach Peter Kellner:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/65977/local-elections-2024-rishi-sunak-has-done-nothing-to-revive-his-partys-fortunes

    In the council wards where they fielded candidates, BBC analysis shows the Conservative vote fell by 20 percentage points compared with 2021—almost double the fall in Tory support where Reform did not stand. In contrast, Labour gained much the same amount of ground, regardless of whether Reform took part. This confirms polls that show Reform taking its support overwhelmingly from the Tories, unlike Ukip a decade ago, which attracted votes across the board.

    This means that the Conservatives must squeeze Reform’s support if they are to avoid a catastrophic landslide defeat at the general election. In 2015, Ukip lost a large part of the votes it had won in byelections, and its poll rating slipped as the election approached. Without such a squeeze this time, Conservative prospects are truly dreadful.


    This is going to be truly spectacular to watch. Sunak should go the whole hog and reshuffle to have a people's cabinet which includes Patel and Braverman and Jenkyns. Introduce a bill to march the jobless naked down the street behind a smirking Priti Patel ringing the shame bell. Capital punishment too big a first step, but how about flogging? With Rees-Mogg as Minister for Fagging shouting HARDER with every stroke.

    Come on you righteous and moral PB Tories, lets see you. Punish the poor, the sick, the foreign and You Can Win.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,544
    Tories lose control of Brentwood.

    Con 19
    LD 17
    Lab 3
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    Broxborne is a Tory hold. Alas poor @NickPalmer
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    First lost seat for Labour in Kirklees

    They need 11 wins to retain majority and are defending 12 seats from 2021.

    Pandoor, ex council leader, in Batley West defeated 52/19 to the Independent. That is a 38 point drop in the Labour vote.

    Ind returned in Dewsbury West, Labour need to gain elsewhere now to not lose Kirklees to NOC.
    Dewsbury West Bank
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    edited May 3
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether this Sun reporter is a reliable source.

    "Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    London Mayoral race update....

    Sounds like Tory Susan Hall is ahead in the voting in Camden / Barnet patch

    A Ulez bounce?"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786373548736467173

    Barnet and Camden London Assembly Constituency contains within it the parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras, represented by Sir Keir Starmer.

    Awks

    If Susan Hall is ahead in B&C, then that's a *minimum* 3.5% swing to CON (ie a 7% lead comes down to zero). Khan's lead over Con in 2021 was 55% vs 45%, a gap of 10%. This adds more evidence to the rather small pile that says Hall may take it. As ever, DYOR.
    Ferguson has since basically retracted this tweet.
    Indeed. See https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1786380400144629779#m

    But I'm wondering if she retracted it because they haven't started counting yet, it's just verification today. Which makes me think...

    Historically postal vote leaks from the verification process are one of the best ways to predict an election (wasn't Ruth Davison chastised for such a leak in one of the Scottish elections, and it was definitely a factor in Brexit 2016). Such leaks are illegal so if was derived from a postal vote verification leak she would have had to retract it ASAP.

    Hmm.
    Is it illegal? It's illegal if its before polls have closed. That's the problem with leaking postal vote verification data. That doesn't apply here.

    She says in the tweet that other sources contradicted her first source, basically.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Devon and Cornwall PCC

    Alison Hernandez Conservative 131,764
    Steve Lodge Liberal Democrats 64,790
    Daniel Steel Labour 107,897
    Conservative HOLD

    Steel won Plymouth and Exeter, Hernandez everywhere else.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Nigelb said:
    "toggle N e-Shift, the Ioniq’s most surprising and controversial feature.

    Activate it and the Ioniq 5 N will emulate a car with an eight-speed dual-clutch transmission. It will pretend to have a powerband, “lugging” if you try to accelerate hard in fifth gear, hitting “redline” and lurching if you fail to shift in time and using regen to simulate the engine braking you get with an on-track downshift. It sounds utterly absurd and completely useless."

    Why would you want to hamper the brilliance of electric transmission by making it crappier? You want the fastest acceleration? Don't slow down for gear changes...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    DavidL said:

    Broxborne is a Tory hold. Alas poor @NickPalmer

    Nick's old stamping ground is Broxtowe, not Broxbourne, I believe?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344

    Also Sprach Peter Kellner:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/65977/local-elections-2024-rishi-sunak-has-done-nothing-to-revive-his-partys-fortunes

    In the council wards where they fielded candidates, BBC analysis shows the Conservative vote fell by 20 percentage points compared with 2021—almost double the fall in Tory support where Reform did not stand. In contrast, Labour gained much the same amount of ground, regardless of whether Reform took part. This confirms polls that show Reform taking its support overwhelmingly from the Tories, unlike Ukip a decade ago, which attracted votes across the board.

    This means that the Conservatives must squeeze Reform’s support if they are to avoid a catastrophic landslide defeat at the general election. In 2015, Ukip lost a large part of the votes it had won in byelections, and its poll rating slipped as the election approached. Without such a squeeze this time, Conservative prospects are truly dreadful.


    This is going to be truly spectacular to watch. Sunak should go the whole hog and reshuffle to have a people's cabinet which includes Patel and Braverman and Jenkyns. Introduce a bill to march the jobless naked down the street behind a smirking Priti Patel ringing the shame bell. Capital punishment too big a first step, but how about flogging? With Rees-Mogg as Minister for Fagging shouting HARDER with every stroke.

    Come on you righteous and moral PB Tories, lets see you. Punish the poor, the sick, the foreign and You Can Win.

    IMHO, Reform have proved a damp squib in these elections, and will do so on the day of the General Election.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Sean_F said:

    Also Sprach Peter Kellner:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/65977/local-elections-2024-rishi-sunak-has-done-nothing-to-revive-his-partys-fortunes

    In the council wards where they fielded candidates, BBC analysis shows the Conservative vote fell by 20 percentage points compared with 2021—almost double the fall in Tory support where Reform did not stand. In contrast, Labour gained much the same amount of ground, regardless of whether Reform took part. This confirms polls that show Reform taking its support overwhelmingly from the Tories, unlike Ukip a decade ago, which attracted votes across the board.

    This means that the Conservatives must squeeze Reform’s support if they are to avoid a catastrophic landslide defeat at the general election. In 2015, Ukip lost a large part of the votes it had won in byelections, and its poll rating slipped as the election approached. Without such a squeeze this time, Conservative prospects are truly dreadful.


    This is going to be truly spectacular to watch. Sunak should go the whole hog and reshuffle to have a people's cabinet which includes Patel and Braverman and Jenkyns. Introduce a bill to march the jobless naked down the street behind a smirking Priti Patel ringing the shame bell. Capital punishment too big a first step, but how about flogging? With Rees-Mogg as Minister for Fagging shouting HARDER with every stroke.

    Come on you righteous and moral PB Tories, lets see you. Punish the poor, the sick, the foreign and You Can Win.

    IMHO, Reform have proved a damp squib in these elections, and will do so on the day of the General Election.
    I think they will struggle to get candidates and will suffer from the nature of the election. Vote reform get Labour, will surely be the Tory refrain.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Looking at the WPB results, if Galloway gets his 5 to 600 candidates then they are going to be a (limited but relevant) factor. They should be prompted in polling
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    DM_Andy said:

    Devon and Cornwall PCC

    Alison Hernandez Conservative 131,764
    Steve Lodge Liberal Democrats 64,790
    Daniel Steel Labour 107,897
    Conservative HOLD

    Steel won Plymouth and Exeter, Hernandez everywhere else.

    That's good for Labour, not so much for the Lib Dems I don't think they managed first place in any district.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Selebian said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
    Edinburgh
    Middlesbrough
    Loughborough

    I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga :wink:
    Not g as in berg: it's a voiced aspirate (like a voiced ch as in loch) ...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    First lost seat for Labour in Kirklees

    They need 11 wins to retain majority and are defending 12 seats from 2021.

    Pandoor, ex council leader, in Batley West defeated 52/19 to the Independent. That is a 38 point drop in the Labour vote.

    Ind returned in Dewsbury West, Labour need to gain elsewhere now to not lose Kirklees to NOC.

    Defending councillor again -31% and lost 55/24 to long time fundraiser / campaigner / Heavy Woollen / lefty Tanisha Bramwell.
    It's lost. Crosland Moor gone 41/34 to the Green.

    Labour going to lose to NOC for certain.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Tories got their hynd burned in Hyndburn.

    BTW, isn't "River Hyndburn" redundant, linguistically?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,544

    DavidL said:

    Broxborne is a Tory hold. Alas poor @NickPalmer

    Nick's old stamping ground is Broxtowe, not Broxbourne, I believe?
    True. About 120 miles apart.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Anyone heard an NEV update guess lately?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Tories got their hynd burned in Hyndburn.

    BTW, isn't "River Hyndburn" redundant, linguistically?

    Doesn't exist. It's Hyndburn Brook, which will no doubt give you just as much fun. (Not that I begrudge it.)

    https://ribbletrust.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Hyndburn-Brook-route-guide.pdf
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Greens did quite well in Hastings
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,544
    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    First bit of data we have from London...

    Hillingdon East (Hillingdon) council by-election result:

    CON: 58.1% (+0.6)
    LAB: 27.2% (-8.7)
    GRN: 7.2% (+7.2)
    LDEM: 5.4% (+5.4)
    IND: 2.1% (+2.1)

    Conservative hold"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786385910558568885
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Con win Leicestershire PCC.

    BBC not bothering with vote numbers for PCCs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited May 3

    There is very little liquidity in London.

    I'm sure I keep hearing PB people chuntering on about the Great Kielder London Canal. That'll help.

    But it may stop at Birmingham.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344

    Sean_F said:

    Also Sprach Peter Kellner:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/65977/local-elections-2024-rishi-sunak-has-done-nothing-to-revive-his-partys-fortunes

    In the council wards where they fielded candidates, BBC analysis shows the Conservative vote fell by 20 percentage points compared with 2021—almost double the fall in Tory support where Reform did not stand. In contrast, Labour gained much the same amount of ground, regardless of whether Reform took part. This confirms polls that show Reform taking its support overwhelmingly from the Tories, unlike Ukip a decade ago, which attracted votes across the board.

    This means that the Conservatives must squeeze Reform’s support if they are to avoid a catastrophic landslide defeat at the general election. In 2015, Ukip lost a large part of the votes it had won in byelections, and its poll rating slipped as the election approached. Without such a squeeze this time, Conservative prospects are truly dreadful.


    This is going to be truly spectacular to watch. Sunak should go the whole hog and reshuffle to have a people's cabinet which includes Patel and Braverman and Jenkyns. Introduce a bill to march the jobless naked down the street behind a smirking Priti Patel ringing the shame bell. Capital punishment too big a first step, but how about flogging? With Rees-Mogg as Minister for Fagging shouting HARDER with every stroke.

    Come on you righteous and moral PB Tories, lets see you. Punish the poor, the sick, the foreign and You Can Win.

    IMHO, Reform have proved a damp squib in these elections, and will do so on the day of the General Election.
    I think they will struggle to get candidates and will suffer from the nature of the election. Vote reform get Labour, will surely be the Tory refrain.
    Reform cherrypicked what they thought would be their best wards (one sixth of the total) and they averaged 14%.

    That's not the same thing as averaging 14% across the whole country.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286

    Anyone heard an NEV update guess lately?

    BBC showing little % change on 2023, suggests something like 35/25 likely for PNV.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    DavidL said:

    Broxborne is a Tory hold. Alas poor @NickPalmer

    Getting your Brox's mixed up, Bro.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Con losses now under 50%.

    Net holds 258
    Losses 249
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Nigelb said:
    "toggle N e-Shift, the Ioniq’s most surprising and controversial feature.

    Activate it and the Ioniq 5 N will emulate a car with an eight-speed dual-clutch transmission. It will pretend to have a powerband, “lugging” if you try to accelerate hard in fifth gear, hitting “redline” and lurching if you fail to shift in time and using regen to simulate the engine braking you get with an on-track downshift. It sounds utterly absurd and completely useless."

    Why would you want to hamper the brilliance of electric transmission by making it crappier? You want the fastest acceleration? Don't slow down for gear changes...
    For speed cues, basically, explained in some detail here:
    https://insideevs.com/reviews/716661/hyundai-ioniq-5-n-shift/

    It's a compromise, obviously, but seems to work. No doubt you'd turn it off for road use, and probably on track too if you're good enough, but most track day drivers probably aren't.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The Tories could conceivably lose over 50 seats to the Lib Dems from just 4 council areas as the more Blue Wall seats come in.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
    Edinburgh
    Middlesbrough
    Loughborough

    I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga :wink:
    Not g as in berg: it's a voiced aspirate (like a voiced ch as in loch) ...
    The ...urgh is like a death rattle :wink:
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    Tories got their hynd burned in Hyndburn.

    BTW, isn't "River Hyndburn" redundant, linguistically?

    Doesn't exist. It's Hyndburn Brook, which will no doubt give you just as much fun. (Not that I begrudge it.)

    https://ribbletrust.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Hyndburn-Brook-route-guide.pdf
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Hyndburn

    So there!
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Tories up to 250 losses.

    We're halfway there...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    First bit of data we have from London...

    Hillingdon East (Hillingdon) council by-election result:

    CON: 58.1% (+0.6)
    LAB: 27.2% (-8.7)
    GRN: 7.2% (+7.2)
    LDEM: 5.4% (+5.4)
    IND: 2.1% (+2.1)

    Conservative hold"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786385910558568885

    Thats not good for labour
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    Basildon was a bad result for the Conservatives, who lost to NOC.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    Hall 7.2

    Full disclosure: I've greened up now.

    So still carry £255 on Hall but no risk on Khan.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's absolutely possible for experienced canvassers to get a rough idea of what's happening from the verification stage of counting votes — because, for example, in 2015 that was how the LDs knew they were going to lose most of their seats so early in the night. They were saying it only an hour or so after close of voting, before most constituencies would have gone beyond the verification stage.

    I remember Kerry McCarthy (Lab, Bristol East) getting a police caution for electoral fraud by revealing postal vote counts but that was a) exact numbers and b) before the close of poll so that was more serious on both counts.
    Her blog. Her rules !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,886
    Labour gain Nuneaton
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Hall 7.2

    Full disclosure: I've greened up now.

    So still carry £255 on Hall but no risk on Khan.
    Good trading work!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    nico679 said:

    The Tories could conceivably lose over 50 seats to the Lib Dems from just 4 council areas as the more Blue Wall seats come in.

    Possible, but the Blue Wall results seem a decidedly mixed bag.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 3
    CON Gain West Putney (Wandsworth) on 5.5% swing for London watchers
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,293

    Hall 7.2

    Full disclosure: I've greened up now.

    So still carry £255 on Hall but no risk on Khan.
    Nice position to be in.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,238
    My cleaner has just messaged me saying

    “your like a male Judith Chalmers!!!”
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Also Sprach Peter Kellner:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/65977/local-elections-2024-rishi-sunak-has-done-nothing-to-revive-his-partys-fortunes

    In the council wards where they fielded candidates, BBC analysis shows the Conservative vote fell by 20 percentage points compared with 2021—almost double the fall in Tory support where Reform did not stand. In contrast, Labour gained much the same amount of ground, regardless of whether Reform took part. This confirms polls that show Reform taking its support overwhelmingly from the Tories, unlike Ukip a decade ago, which attracted votes across the board.

    This means that the Conservatives must squeeze Reform’s support if they are to avoid a catastrophic landslide defeat at the general election. In 2015, Ukip lost a large part of the votes it had won in byelections, and its poll rating slipped as the election approached. Without such a squeeze this time, Conservative prospects are truly dreadful.


    This is going to be truly spectacular to watch. Sunak should go the whole hog and reshuffle to have a people's cabinet which includes Patel and Braverman and Jenkyns. Introduce a bill to march the jobless naked down the street behind a smirking Priti Patel ringing the shame bell. Capital punishment too big a first step, but how about flogging? With Rees-Mogg as Minister for Fagging shouting HARDER with every stroke.

    Come on you righteous and moral PB Tories, lets see you. Punish the poor, the sick, the foreign and You Can Win.

    IMHO, Reform have proved a damp squib in these elections, and will do so on the day of the General Election.
    I think they will struggle to get candidates and will suffer from the nature of the election. Vote reform get Labour, will surely be the Tory refrain.
    Reform cherrypicked what they thought would be their best wards (one sixth of the total) and they averaged 14%.

    That's not the same thing as averaging 14% across the whole country.
    I'm not sure what determined which wards Reform decided to stand in. In Southampton I would have guessed their eight best wards would have been Redbridge, Millbrook, Coxford, Thornhill, Harefield and Woolston, Peartree and Sholing but they only stood in three of them. Redbridge (12.3%), Peartree (9.6%) and Coxford (9.3%). The other five were much worse, Bassett (5.7%), Bitterne Park (4.1%), Freemantle (6.5%), Portswood (3.8%) and Shirley (6.7%).

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,544

    CON Gain West Putney (Wandsworth) on 5.5% swing for London watchers

    Interesting result.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Nuneaton

    An extremely tight contest, but still good for Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    DM_Andy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Also Sprach Peter Kellner:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/65977/local-elections-2024-rishi-sunak-has-done-nothing-to-revive-his-partys-fortunes

    In the council wards where they fielded candidates, BBC analysis shows the Conservative vote fell by 20 percentage points compared with 2021—almost double the fall in Tory support where Reform did not stand. In contrast, Labour gained much the same amount of ground, regardless of whether Reform took part. This confirms polls that show Reform taking its support overwhelmingly from the Tories, unlike Ukip a decade ago, which attracted votes across the board.

    This means that the Conservatives must squeeze Reform’s support if they are to avoid a catastrophic landslide defeat at the general election. In 2015, Ukip lost a large part of the votes it had won in byelections, and its poll rating slipped as the election approached. Without such a squeeze this time, Conservative prospects are truly dreadful.


    This is going to be truly spectacular to watch. Sunak should go the whole hog and reshuffle to have a people's cabinet which includes Patel and Braverman and Jenkyns. Introduce a bill to march the jobless naked down the street behind a smirking Priti Patel ringing the shame bell. Capital punishment too big a first step, but how about flogging? With Rees-Mogg as Minister for Fagging shouting HARDER with every stroke.

    Come on you righteous and moral PB Tories, lets see you. Punish the poor, the sick, the foreign and You Can Win.

    IMHO, Reform have proved a damp squib in these elections, and will do so on the day of the General Election.
    I think they will struggle to get candidates and will suffer from the nature of the election. Vote reform get Labour, will surely be the Tory refrain.
    Reform cherrypicked what they thought would be their best wards (one sixth of the total) and they averaged 14%.

    That's not the same thing as averaging 14% across the whole country.
    I'm not sure what determined which wards Reform decided to stand in. In Southampton I would have guessed their eight best wards would have been Redbridge, Millbrook, Coxford, Thornhill, Harefield and Woolston, Peartree and Sholing but they only stood in three of them. Redbridge (12.3%), Peartree (9.6%) and Coxford (9.3%). The other five were much worse, Bassett (5.7%), Bitterne Park (4.1%), Freemantle (6.5%), Portswood (3.8%) and Shirley (6.7%).

    I expect they are poor at targeting, but they fielded full slates in Sunderland and Hartlepool.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Labour almost win North Hertfordshire

    Labour 25 (+6)
    Liberal Democrats 19 (+4)
    Conservative 7 (-10)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,544
    edited May 3
    Very close result in Leicester & Rutland.

    Con 62,280
    Lab 61,420
    Green 23,649
    LD 22,041
    One Leicester 7,104

    https://twitter.com/Leicester_News/status/1786405261013287194/photo/1
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Nuneaton

    And Milton Keynes, which is a good omen for them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Nuneaton

    The Boris Belt in the Midlands will punish the Tories for kicking him out.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,062
    Ratters said:

    Tories up to 250 losses.

    We're halfway there...

    Woah-ah, living on a pray-ah!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,721
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.

    Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.

    I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
    Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
    Edinburgh
    Middlesbrough
    Loughborough

    I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga :wink:
    Not g as in berg: it's a voiced aspirate (like a voiced ch as in loch) ...
    One of the enduring mysteries of PB for me is, given the amount of nonsense I post, why people take my comments seriously.

    So, seriously, they are all of course different. I'm also aware that Loughborough is not generally pronounced Looga-barooga.

    I am though through with thorough thought on pronunciation - I've never bought that rough is rough though bough is bough.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Those London results are - interesting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    I suggested that the Greens might win in Ilkley - they did.

    Ros Brown Green Party 2414 38% Elected
    Joanne Sugden Conservative 2247 35% Not elected
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Leon said:

    My cleaner has just messaged me saying

    “your like a male Judith Chalmers!!!”

    Heyday now some years/decades in the past, and fewer people every year know who you are?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,272
    Sean_F said:

    Basildon was a bad result for the Conservatives, who lost to NOC.

    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Nuneaton

    All the "bellwethers" are topping?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    Andy_JS said:
    Three London by-elections show decent swings to the Conservatives, but that could just be noise.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,721
    Leon said:

    My cleaner has just messaged me saying

    “your like a male Judith Chalmers!!!”

    Less menacing, if also less grammatically correct, than messaging saying: "you're like a male Jill Dando" :hushed:
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    My cleaner has just messaged me saying

    “your like a male Judith Chalmers!!!”

    I hope you put her right, it’s “you’re” not “your”. Otherwise she’s correct, even down to the hair.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Andy_JS said:
    Are we on the Highway to Hall? Gulp.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Andy_JS said:
    That Putney result wasn’t good for Labour . There’s also a Bromley by-election result coming later .
This discussion has been closed.