Speaking at a press event in Teesside International Airport, Mr Sunak said the results showed at the general election election voters "are going to stick with us".
I get that you always have to spin positively but that sounds more like disconnection with reality.
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.
I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
Edinburgh Middlesbrough Loughborough
I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga
Not g as in berg: it's a voiced aspirate (like a voiced ch as in loch) ...
One of the enduring mysteries of PB for me is, given the amount of nonsense I post, why people take my comments seriously.
So, seriously, they are all of course different. I'm also aware that Loughborough is not generally pronounced Looga-barooga.
I am though through with thorough thought on pronunciation - I've never bought that rough is rough though bough is bough.
I trust you are aware that one can have ghoti and chips, to recapitulate what GBS so well said.
If the Tories manage to pull of the big upset in London it will be absolute carnage. I think Susan Hall is a crazy person but she's got to be better than Sadiq.
Depends on the character of the councils yet to come. Pretty sure Swindon (count tomorrow) will slew hugely to Labour.
Reminds me of a German friend watching a test match final innings. Chasing 300, 150-5, so he assumed the batting team was on track to get the runs (no idea of the batting order).
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.
Rochdale’s loss is London’s gain - I reckon Gorgeous would have stood on a Gaza ticket and siphoned enough support away from Khan to let Hall through.
Depends on the character of the councils yet to come. Pretty sure Swindon (count tomorrow) will slew hugely to Labour.
Reminds me of a German friend watching a test match final innings. Chasing 300, 150-5, so he assumed the batting team was on track to get the runs (no idea of the batting order).
If the Tories manage to pull of the big upset in London it will be absolute carnage. I think Susan Hall is a crazy person but she's got to be better than Sadiq.
It will turbocharge the radicalisation of the left with accusations of white supremacy and election stealing.
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
The Tories should derive no comfort from Houchen's victory. When they're losing in places like North Yorkshire (home of Rishi Sunak) and Rushmoor (home of the British Army), they're heading for a big defeat.
Also they lose all of their Teeside seats on a similar swing.
I gave your post a like despite your incorrect spelling of Teesside.
Middlesbrough also often suffers similarly on here.
Edinburgh Middlesbrough Loughborough
I mean why do people get confused? It's not like they sound similar - Edinberg, Middlesbruh and Looga-barooga
Not g as in berg: it's a voiced aspirate (like a voiced ch as in loch) ...
One of the enduring mysteries of PB for me is, given the amount of nonsense I post, why people take my comments seriously.
So, seriously, they are all of course different. I'm also aware that Loughborough is not generally pronounced Looga-barooga.
I am though through with thorough thought on pronunciation - I've never bought that rough is rough though bough is bough.
Your problem is that you are up against stiff opposition in the Posting Nonsense stakes.
Depends on the character of the councils yet to come. Pretty sure Swindon (count tomorrow) will slew hugely to Labour.
Reminds me of a German friend watching a test match final innings. Chasing 300, 150-5, so he assumed the batting team was on track to get the runs (no idea of the batting order).
Swindon has been counted today. Labour +9, Tories -9.
CON Gain West Putney (Wandsworth) on 5.5% swing for London watchers
Maybe this is going to be quite a close race after all.
West Putney is interesting. Not ULEZ terroir, I’d have thought
Yes, that's the one that interests me. It could be LTNs for Putney rather than ULEZ. People are fed up, despite whatever the studies say the actual people who live near them absolutely loathe them. It's another one of those situations like immigration where all of those obsessives point to their many studies and come up with phantom arguments in favour when the overwhelming sentiment is against.
It also mirrors a similar result in the locals in Enfield last time around where against the national swing the Tories gained 8 seats, all of them around the LTN areas.
Heyday now some years/decades in the past, and fewer people every year know who you are?
She’s of a certain age (my cleaner)
That's absurd.
All my married friends who have cleaners or housekeepers , those cleaners and housekeepers are vetted by the wife for various reasons.
You AIUI live on your own. Why on earth do you not have a cleaner who is not "of a certain age".
I was told a good counter-argument to hiring unattractive au pairs (same applies for cleaners etc).
Most wives think it’s best to hire an ugly au pair because the husband won’t be attracted to her however if you have an ugly au pair then she’s not been pestered for dates by young good looking chaps and the only man in her life who she gets any attention from is the husband who might be happy to have any attention too in a tired marriage.
An attractive au pair will have no shortage of attractive suitors and the last person they will be interested in is a husband they see around the home at their worst who is knackered from work and kids and bored of life.
Heyday now some years/decades in the past, and fewer people every year know who you are?
She’s of a certain age (my cleaner)
That's absurd.
All my married friends who have cleaners or housekeepers , those cleaners and housekeepers are vetted by the wife for various reasons.
You AIUI live on your own. Why on earth do you not have a cleaner who is not "of a certain age".
Because I advertised on nextdoor and 99% of the applicants couldn’t speak very good English. And my previous cleaner, who I liked a lot, was Thai and she never learned good English - and much as I liked her I got tired of her misunderstanding my request to “defrost the fridge”
The successful candidate was a jolly white working class cockney lady in her 60s who lives 2 mins away (another big advantage). So I accepted her with relief. And it’s been a good choice. She’s sweet but efficient, communicates well. Defrosts fridges
Also i once had a really HOT young cleaner and frankly its an embarrassing distraction. I kept yearning
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Are the two council by-elections in London a clue? One could be random but two could just be a pattern?
They're reading PB. Even worse, they're reading me!
One of the Tom Clancy Jack Ryan books has an artificially induced stock market crash exacerbated by computer programs set to sell at a given value. A trader wonders aloud why this is happening, and his more experienced boss points out that it was down to them: a feedback loop.
So, bear in mind that all PB can do is retweet and repost stuff because we have zero research facilities and pull numbers out of our ass because we are panicky little munchkins and afeard in our beds. And all the chatter and goss is good for Hall, and none of it is good for Khan. We collate this and we (and punters looking over our shoulders) start to place little bets just in case. And so the pebbles start to fall...
The only thing that will stop this is good news coming in for Khan. But until then tension, apprehension, and dissension have begun. And if good news doesn't come in for Khan...well, he's lost then, hasn't he.
Depends on the character of the councils yet to come. Pretty sure Swindon (count tomorrow) will slew hugely to Labour.
Reminds me of a German friend watching a test match final innings. Chasing 300, 150-5, so he assumed the batting team was on track to get the runs (no idea of the batting order).
Swindon has already declared.
I must have been mis-informed! Thought it was tomorrow!
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Maybe, but Khan is the only high-profile Labour politician to be a winner up to this point, which I think will count for him if he returns to Westminster.
Put it this way, I'm pretty sure SKS would rather him safely outside of Westminster, running City Hall, than have him in his Cabinet or on the backbenches....
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Sadiq has ex officio big beast status (he has run a bigger organisation than any other Labour MP including Keir Starmer) and losing the Mayoralty will give him a pathway back into the Commons.
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
You would have to be a particular level of crap to lose London in the high water mark year for Labour to Susan Hall.
I don’t think Khan is quite that level of crap, but…
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Khan's political career is finished if he loses to a candidate as terrible as Hall.
Heyday now some years/decades in the past, and fewer people every year know who you are?
She’s of a certain age (my cleaner)
That's absurd.
All my married friends who have cleaners or housekeepers , those cleaners and housekeepers are vetted by the wife for various reasons.
You AIUI live on your own. Why on earth do you not have a cleaner who is not "of a certain age".
Because I advertised on nextdoor and 99% of the applicants couldn’t speak very good English. And my previous cleaner, who I liked a lot, was Thai and she never learned good English - and much as I liked her I got tired of her misunderstanding my request to “defrost the fridge”
The successful candidate was a jolly white working class cockney lady in her 60s who lives 2 mins away (another big advantage). So I accepted her with relief. And it’s been a good choice. She’s sweet but efficient, communicates well. Defrosts fridges
Also i once had a really HOT young cleaner and frankly its an embarrassing distraction. I kept yearning
5.5% and 2% swings in by-elections Lab to Con in London. 2.4% swing needed... Fingers crossed Hall gets 2.3% so the Tories realise that with a normal candidate they'd have won.
I'm no fan of George Galloway but shouldn't the BBC have covered him at least a tenth of the amount they have talked to Richard Tice given that WPGB have trounced Reform in terms of seats won?
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Khan’s career is essentially over if he loses. He’s not liked, he’s not popular (hence this potential defeat), he’s lacklustre and dull and devoid of ideas. He only went for a third term BECAUSE he knows there’s no big job in SW1
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Khan's political career is finished if he loses to a candidate as terrible as Hall.
If that happens we just have to accept we can't sneer at the other countries where incumbent politicians have changed the electoral rules to favour candidates of their own parties.
It would be sad, but completely consistent with many other things that have happened over the last decade and a half.
Speaking at a press event in Teesside International Airport, Mr Sunak said the results showed at the general election election voters "are going to stick with us".
I get that you always have to spin positively but that sounds more like disconnection with reality.
Off his tits. The result on Teesside shows that voters *are not* sticking with the Tories. If the party has the same "victory" at the GE it loses every Tory seat in NE England. Confirmed by the swing just now against Steve Nick Nick Turner in the PCC election.
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Maybe, but Khan is the only high-profile Labour politician to be a winner up to this point, which I think will count for him if he returns to Westminster.
Put it this way, I'm pretty sure SKS would rather him safely outside of Westminster, running City Hall, than have him in his Cabinet or on the backbenches....
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Khan’s career is essentially over if he loses. He’s not liked, he’s not popular (hence this potential defeat), he’s lacklustre and dull and devoid of ideas. He only went for a third term BECAUSE he knows there’s no big job in SW1
Why do politicians always overstay their welcome? He should have retired after winning 2 elections.
"toggle N e-Shift, the Ioniq’s most surprising and controversial feature.
Activate it and the Ioniq 5 N will emulate a car with an eight-speed dual-clutch transmission. It will pretend to have a powerband, “lugging” if you try to accelerate hard in fifth gear, hitting “redline” and lurching if you fail to shift in time and using regen to simulate the engine braking you get with an on-track downshift. It sounds utterly absurd and completely useless."
Why would you want to hamper the brilliance of electric transmission by making it crappier? You want the fastest acceleration? Don't slow down for gear changes...
I quite like the Leaf's e-Pedal mode (or dodgem-car mode as the missus calls it), where the car acts as though it has very strong engine braking and will even come to a complete halt if you take your foot off the accelerator. You hardly ever need to move your foot to the brake when driving in heavy traffic, which makes town driving a lot more relaxing.
The Tories will probably take that as a GE indicator. Grab a few points back from Reform, stop the bloody boats with Rwanda, and they could be in the 28-32 zone. Still a big defeat, Starmer will win, but not an ELE and they could be back after 1 term if they can find a good leader
The Tories will probably take that as a GE indicator. Grab a few points back from Reform, stop the bloody boats with Rwanda, and they could be in the 28-32 zone. Still a big defeat, Starmer will win, but not an ELE and they could be back after 1 term if they can find a good leader
I think if the Tories actually stop the boats then it will be worth quite a lot more for them than getting them to that range. If they stop them, a reduction may take them up to ~30% though.
*IF* and it really is a big *IF* Labour should lose the Mayoralty it will create an interesting dynamic for the next government, as no doubt Khan will be back in Westminster as an MP at the election, which means SKS suddenly finds a potential rival and a direct threat to him on the backbenches or in the Cabinet.
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
Losing the London Mayoralty doesn't seem like a great springboard to becoming Labour leader.
Khan’s career is essentially over if he loses. He’s not liked, he’s not popular (hence this potential defeat), he’s lacklustre and dull and devoid of ideas. He only went for a third term BECAUSE he knows there’s no big job in SW1
Why do politicians always overstay their welcome? He should have retired after winning 2 elections.
He really should have done that. Indeed there should be 2 term limits. London desperately needs a new mayor with exciting ideas. Not Khan, again
But Khan is greedy and careerist and he could see there’s no great job waiting for him in Westminster, soo…
I'm no fan of George Galloway but shouldn't the BBC have covered him at least a tenth of the amount they have talked to Richard Tice given that WPGB have trounced Reform in terms of seats won?
I am bemused by the lack of coverage for Binface. Its such a waste of a good opportunity to enliven the count.
Thus far I'd say its a very poor set of results for the Tories, but not quite as catastrophic as it seemed first light today Solid but unspectacular Labour, on course for power but not 'super' landslide and with potential concerns over Gaza LDs, nothing great but should see them make progress Greens, emerging as a strong fourth party of England
Heyday now some years/decades in the past, and fewer people every year know who you are?
She’s of a certain age (my cleaner)
That's absurd.
All my married friends who have cleaners or housekeepers , those cleaners and housekeepers are vetted by the wife for various reasons.
You AIUI live on your own. Why on earth do you not have a cleaner who is not "of a certain age".
Because I advertised on nextdoor and 99% of the applicants couldn’t speak very good English. And my previous cleaner, who I liked a lot, was Thai and she never learned good English - and much as I liked her I got tired of her misunderstanding my request to “defrost the fridge”
The successful candidate was a jolly white working class cockney lady in her 60s who lives 2 mins away (another big advantage). So I accepted her with relief. And it’s been a good choice. She’s sweet but efficient, communicates well. Defrosts fridges
Also i once had a really HOT young cleaner and frankly its an embarrassing distraction. I kept yearning
You should look into buying a new fridge. I've not had to defrost mine in 20 years. (Hmm. I've just realised my fridge is 20 years old.)
The Tories will probably take that as a GE indicator. Grab a few points back from Reform, stop the bloody boats with Rwanda, and they could be in the 28-32 zone. Still a big defeat, Starmer will win, but not an ELE and they could be back after 1 term if they can find a good leader
Both LAB and CON will get more than that projected. So yes quite possibly something like 38 and 30. So big win for Keir. CON get to keep about 200 seats.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
There is a Karl Lagerfeld quote by which I live my life: “Sweatpants are a sign of defeat.” John Swinney is a sign of defeat. This is a sign of a party not only incapable of regenerating itself but seeming unwilling to try. What does this most look like? Scottish Labour 2006, a machine the purpose of which was creating jobs for the machine.
To give you a sense of why, let me explain a conversation I had earlier in the week. My first read on events was a conversation with a woman I don’t know whose politics I knew nothing about. I was trying to get a feel for how the public were seeing things without leading her.
She told me was that she had always voted SNP under Alex Salmond and had kept doing so but has become more and more disillusioned under Sturgeon. Her conclusion now was that the SNP is contemptuous, that it couldn’t make it clearer that all they’re interested in is whose turn it is for the trough. She said that there was now nothing that would make her vote for the party.
Labour, able to afford one loss dropped 5 Dewsbury & Batley wards to Independents, lost a Huddersfield ward to Greens (Gaza a factor in all of these), but nicked Holme Valley South which was a marginal Tory defence this go.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
Thus far I'd say its a very poor set of results for the Tories, but not quite as catastrophic as it seemed first light today Solid but unspectacular Labour, on course for power but not 'super' landslide and with potential concerns over Gaza LDs, nothing great but should see them make progress Greens, emerging as a strong fourth party of England
Reform - underwhelming
WPB - going to be a factor
I did say a while back Gaza May be an issue for labour….
As for your summation. Nail hit on head.
I don’t know about the rest of the country but round by me it looks like the Greens are another middle class protest party, like the Lib Dems.
As much as I hold them nationally in disdain I’d be tempted to vote for them locally.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
lol, no. Dream on
You have noticed what’s happening across Europe? Indeed, the West? We are not immune - we are just a bit behind the curve
The national equivalent vote share advantage is a little weaker for Starmer than it was for Cameron in 2009. It’s a long way away from Blair in 1996. Supports my hunch that the next election will be pretty close.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
I am no psephologist, but here is a question. When looking at the PCC results 2024 (last held 2021) the swing from Con to Lab, except notably in Cumbria, where it is enormous seems so far to be less massive than I would expect if Labour are to have a landslide. Am I right? And are they a decent proxy for a GE?
Comments
Hall 4.5
What is going on?
Are the two council by-elections in London a clue? One could be random but two could just be a pattern?
I get that you always have to spin positively but that sounds more like disconnection with reality.
Also, interesting gender-stereotyping of 'my cleaner' on your behalf, you male(?) chauvinist pig
ETA: Of course, you may just happen to know Leon's cleaner, in which case my sincere apologies
Reminds me of a German friend watching a test match final innings. Chasing 300, 150-5, so he assumed the batting team was on track to get the runs (no idea of the batting order).
All my married friends who have cleaners or housekeepers , those cleaners and housekeepers are vetted by the wife for various reasons.
You AIUI live on your own. Why on earth do you not have a cleaner who is not "of a certain age".
Barnet & Camden 39.59%
Ealing & Hillingdon 42.98%
Greenwich & Lewisham 40.33%
Merton & Wandsworth 45.99%
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data
I've always got the impression there's not a lot of love lost between SKS and Khan so things could get very interesting in the next government.
But Khan Khant lose this. Can he?
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1786404901611884714?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
Workers Party oust deputy leader of Manchester Council (Longsight Ward)
The warning signs are there... But for now, it's all about ABC - Anyone But Con!
It also mirrors a similar result in the locals in Enfield last time around where against the national swing the Tories gained 8 seats, all of them around the LTN areas.
Lambeth & Southwark 33.96%
City & East 31.17% — this comprises Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, City of London
Most wives think it’s best to hire an ugly au pair because the husband won’t be attracted to her however if you have an ugly au pair then she’s not been pestered for dates by young good looking chaps and the only man in her life who she gets any attention from is the husband who might be happy to have any attention too in a tired marriage.
An attractive au pair will have no shortage of attractive suitors and the last person they will be interested in is a husband they see around the home at their worst who is knackered from work and kids and bored of life.
The successful candidate was a jolly white working class cockney lady in her 60s who lives 2 mins away (another big advantage). So I accepted her with relief. And it’s been a good choice. She’s sweet but efficient, communicates well. Defrosts fridges
Also i once had a really HOT young cleaner and frankly its an embarrassing distraction. I kept yearning
One of the Tom Clancy Jack Ryan books has an artificially induced stock market crash exacerbated by computer programs set to sell at a given value. A trader wonders aloud why this is happening, and his more experienced boss points out that it was down to them: a feedback loop.
So, bear in mind that all PB can do is retweet and repost stuff because we have zero research facilities and pull numbers out of our ass because we are panicky little munchkins and afeard in our beds. And all the chatter and goss is good for Hall, and none of it is good for Khan. We collate this and we (and punters looking over our shoulders) start to place little bets just in case. And so the pebbles start to fall...
The only thing that will stop this is good news coming in for Khan. But until then tension, apprehension, and dissension have begun. And if good news doesn't come in for Khan...well, he's lost then, hasn't he.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h068QkWYHs
Times Radio How to Win an Election podcast recorded this morning.
516,868 eligible voters in Lambeth & Southwark. Only 175,440 turned out.
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data
Put it this way, I'm pretty sure SKS would rather him safely outside of Westminster, running City Hall, than have him in his Cabinet or on the backbenches....
Lab 34
Con 25
LD 17
Oth 24
Good result, but Hall needs a swing to her from 2021.
I don’t think Khan is quite that level of crap, but…
https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1786399001614360752
5.5% and 2% swings in by-elections Lab to Con in London. 2.4% swing needed... Fingers crossed Hall gets 2.3% so the Tories realise that with a normal candidate they'd have won.
Lab 34%
Con 25%
LD 17%
Others 24%
Lab lead of 9% over Con is identical to last year.
But both Lab and Con marginally down on last year.
It’s not often I’m rendered speechless…….
https://x.com/joannaccherry/status/1786381562793095622
Nicola Sturgeon warns of 'push back' on women's rights and misogyny 'on the rise again'
https://www.scotsman.com/whats-on/arts-and-entertainment/nicola-sturgeon-warns-of-push-back-on-womens-rights-and-misogyny-on-the-rise-again-4615627
David John Rowntree Herdson Yorkshire Party 97 4% Not elected
It would be sad, but completely consistent with many other things that have happened over the last decade and a half.
But Khan is greedy and careerist and he could see there’s no great job waiting for him in Westminster, soo…
Solid but unspectacular Labour, on course for power but not 'super' landslide and with potential concerns over Gaza
LDs, nothing great but should see them make progress
Greens, emerging as a strong fourth party of England
Reform - underwhelming
WPB - going to be a factor
Conservatives 2 (+0)
Labour 1 (+0)
Green 1 (+1)
Lib Dems 0 (-1)
To give you a sense of why, let me explain a conversation I had earlier in the week. My first read on events was a conversation with a woman I don’t know whose politics I knew nothing about. I was trying to get a feel for how the public were seeing things without leading her.
She told me was that she had always voted SNP under Alex Salmond and had kept doing so but has become more and more disillusioned under Sturgeon. Her conclusion now was that the SNP is contemptuous, that it couldn’t make it clearer that all they’re interested in is whose turn it is for the trough. She said that there was now nothing that would make her vote for the party.
https://robinmcalpine.org/the-snp-is-a-failed-project/
Labour, able to afford one loss dropped 5 Dewsbury & Batley wards to Independents, lost a Huddersfield ward to Greens (Gaza a factor in all of these), but nicked Holme Valley South which was a marginal Tory defence this go.
As for your summation. Nail hit on head.
I don’t know about the rest of the country but round by me it looks like the Greens are another middle class protest party, like the Lib Dems.
As much as I hold them nationally in disdain I’d be tempted to vote for them locally.
A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over.
Susan Hall’s campaign has been fought from the gutter with dangerous and divisive politics.
You have noticed what’s happening across Europe? Indeed, the West? We are not immune - we are just a bit behind the curve
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_England_and_Wales_police_and_crime_commissioner_elections