If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
I am no psephologist, but here is a question. When looking at the PCC results 2024 (last held 2021) the swing from Con to Lab, except notably in Cumbria, where it is enormous seems so far to be less massive than I would expect if Labour are to have a landslide. Am I right? And are they a decent proxy for a GE?
I was thinking the same thing, especially in Cornwall&Devon where the Tories won easily in a county where all the projections say they would lose most of their seats.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
Times Radio How to Win an Election podcast recorded this morning.
An interesting point (code for one that chimes with something I've said on pb) from Danny Finklestein is that it is hard for losing parties to get MPs and ministers to stick to the agreed media line because they think they can think of better ones themselves.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
On the other hand it puts a lot of pressure on Labour to remain Tory-voter friendly which will put pressure on their coalition in other places.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
I just can't account for people's dislike of Sunak, unless it has something to do with race.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
The national equivalent vote share advantage is a little weaker for Starmer than it was for Cameron in 2009. It’s a long way away from Blair in 1996. Supports my hunch that the next election will be pretty close.
On the flipside they're struggling in the cities (where they already have all the MPs), and doing well in more rural areas. Not all 9% leads are the same...
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
I just can't account for people's dislike of Sunak, unless it has something to do with race.
Well, I'm Asian and I dislike him intensely. Mum's even more scathing of him
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Doesn't vocally support building houses & Amy Lame were the two red lines I couldn't cross to vote for him.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
They tend to like Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, etc, so it can't be that.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Must be it. Nail hit on head. People either love him or they’re hideous racists. 👍
I said he was obnoxious yesterday. I will reflect on that and try to be a better person and realise he’s truly ace.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
I just can't account for people's dislike of Sunak, unless it has something to do with race.
Well, I'm Asian and I dislike him intensely. Mum's even more scathing of him
As also mooted by yours truly Norfolk PCC goes to Labour in a tight finish with Con - 52k versus 50k, Labour assisted by the city having council elections but the county had none. Optimum conditions and a good scalp
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
He’s a pathetic dull joyless lying hypocrite who has achieved nothing but make London sadder. How about that, for starters?
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
I just can't account for people's dislike of Sunak, unless it has something to do with race.
Well, I'm Asian and I dislike him intensely. Mum's even more scathing of him
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Nor me, was a top quality goalkeeper for club and country. I was going to mention the Euro96 shootout as a possible reason, but turns out Kopke was their keeper then.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
They tend to like Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, etc, so it can't be that.
In Sadiq Khan's case, the dislike (from some) is not about race. It's about his religion.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
I just can't account for people's dislike of Sunak, unless it has something to do with race.
He's also very, very rich, which for some people mean's he cannot understand the how most people live their lives.* He has had a few mess-ups where he has looked completely out of touch with normal life (paying for petrol etc).
No doubt some dislike him because he is of Indian heritage, but I think the vast majority in the country are better than that.
*See Common People from Pulp for a brilliantly evocative example.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Quite excited about my Khan sub 40% bet now, I must say.
If the Tories win it will be very very funny!
I promise I will be magnanimous and not look for whole and fulsome apologies on here from those who accused me of ramping, myopia, desperately grasping at straws, and failing to read the mood this morning.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over.
Susan Hall’s campaign has been fought from the gutter with dangerous and divisive politics.
Interesting he's putting that out already..
From eve of poll.
OK then, what does a Hall Mayorality look like?
If she has any sense, like a Boris one in that she delegates everything and gets on with the serious business of chatting to internet security entrepreneurs. But we are getting ahead of ourselves. Even if turnout is down, it might be her lot who stayed at home.
To help with folowing the turnout figures for London. I have made up a table of the 2021 numbers and what we have so far for 2024.
Down across the board. Photo ID or Gaza, or just plain apathy?
Sadly I don't know enough about London and the political makeup to do any useful interpretation. Others know the boroughs much better than I do. Some of the boroughs are only down very slightly so not sure if anyone can analyse that and say what the likely cause would be based on demographics.
5.5% and 2% swings in by-elections Lab to Con in London. 2.4% swing needed... Fingers crossed Hall gets 2.3% so the Tories realise that with a normal candidate they'd have won.
This doesn't follow at all. A "decent" candidate in the CCHQ Lib Dem mould would not have run a near the knuckle guerilla campaign on ULEZ, they would have been far too polite, if not openly in favour. The voters of London don't "like the Tories" - Susan Hall polls way better than the Tories national share. To suggest that a "non wingnut" candidate would have done better is a cretinous misreading of what's actually happened.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
They tend to like Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, etc, so it can't be that.
In Sadiq Khan's case, the dislike (from some) is not about race. It's about his religion.
I’ve got left wing friends who cordially despise him, and it’s quite visceral. They think he’s depressing and mendacious and not good for London. Even if he wins it’s not gonna be some triumph. He really should have stepped aside for a better Labour candidate with new ideas
As also mooted by yours truly Norfolk PCC goes to Labour in a tight finish with Con - 52k versus 50k, Labour assisted by the city having council elections but the county had none. Optimum conditions and a good scalp
But the Norfolk swing is 12 points. That's what Labour need on UNS to get a majority of 1. I think some of these PCC figures are interesting. Could this be a worry for Labour? (Betting post: NOM and Tories to lose 0-50,50-100 seats etc could be value.)
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
That just shows a lack of imagination
There's lefties who seem him as a bland Barite hogging a seat that would be perfect for the Jessiah. ULEZ has touched on something - people see the future as being pushed out of cars or being pushed to buy more expensive EVs. In many parts of London, you need a car as part of daily life. In many ways, going car free is both what the very poorest and the richest do.
Ben Bradley must have been expecting more than 28.8% for the East Midlands* mayoral elections. He can't even use Reform UK's 10.9% as an excuse for losing.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Ben Bradley must have been expecting more than 28.8% for the East Midlands* mayoral elections. He can't even use Reform UK's 10.9% as an excuse for losing.
* rename if you wish.
I called this one yesterday. I met very few people who had any time for him and plenty who were planning on campaigning for Clair Ward.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
They tend to like Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, etc, so it can't be that.
In Sadiq Khan's case, the dislike (from some) is not about race. It's about his religion.
I’ve got left wing friends who cordially despise him, and it’s quite visceral. They think he’s depressing and mendacious and not good for London. Even if he wins it’s not gonna be some triumph. He really should have stepped aside for a better Labour candidate with new ideas
He's a Labour version of Nicola Sturgeon without the political nous.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
That just shows a lack of imagination
There's lefties who seem him as a bland Barite hogging a seat that would be perfect for the Jessiah. ULEZ has touched on something - people see the future as being pushed out of cars or being pushed to buy more expensive EVs. In many parts of London, you need a car as part of daily life. In many ways, going car free is both what the very poorest and the richest do.
Yeah, ULEZ was one reason why I didn't vote Labour yesterday.
However, once we go to a full General Election footing, that will change!
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
They tend to like Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, etc, so it can't be that.
In Sadiq Khan's case, the dislike (from some) is not about race. It's about his religion.
I’ve got left wing friends who cordially despise him, and it’s quite visceral. They think he’s depressing and mendacious and not good for London. Even if he wins it’s not gonna be some triumph. He really should have stepped aside for a better Labour candidate with new ideas
Good to hear that my fellow lefties are cordial in their visceral hatred.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
"Kahn"? Is he secretly Jewish?
I thought it was a reference to the “M. Kahn is Bent” graffiti
As also mooted by yours truly Norfolk PCC goes to Labour in a tight finish with Con - 52k versus 50k, Labour assisted by the city having council elections but the county had none. Optimum conditions and a good scalp
But the Norfolk swing is 12 points. That's what Labour need on UNS to get a majority of 1. I think some of these PCC figures are interesting. Could this be a worry for Labour? (Betting post: NOM and Tories to lose 0-50,50-100 seats etc could be value.)
In a GE, 12% Norfolk swing and Labour will win Norwich North and Norwich South but the rest of the county stays blue
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over.
Susan Hall’s campaign has been fought from the gutter with dangerous and divisive politics.
Interesting he's putting that out already..
All the good news is for Hall All the bad news is for Khan All the good news is for Hall All the bad news is for Khan
It's beginning to feel like Potus2020 when I was still stuck in the toilets and PM'ing phrases like "where are his legions?" . Where are Khan's legions? Where is he winning?
To help with folowing the turnout figures for London. I have made up a table of the 2021 numbers and what we have so far for 2024.
Cursory glance suggests turnout holding up better in areas that ought to lean Tory and falling off more in solidly Labour parts. That can’t be comforting viewing for the incumbent.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Ben Bradley must have been expecting more than 28.8% for the East Midlands* mayoral elections. He can't even use Reform UK's 10.9% as an excuse for losing.
* rename if you wish.
I called this one yesterday. I met very few people who had any time for him and plenty who were planning on campaigning for Clair Ward.
Good shout, it just seemed from outside that he was being smart in going for one of the metro mayor posts that you can combine with being an MP.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Must be it. Nail hit on head. People either love him or they’re hideous racists. 👍
I said he was obnoxious yesterday. I will reflect on that and try to be a better person and realise he’s truly ace.
Labour aren't going to last as long in office as perhaps they'd like if their reaction every time they lose an election is to imagine the loss must be down to prejudice.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
They tend to like Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, etc, so it can't be that.
In Sadiq Khan's case, the dislike (from some) is not about race. It's about his religion.
I’ve got left wing friends who cordially despise him, and it’s quite visceral. They think he’s depressing and mendacious and not good for London. Even if he wins it’s not gonna be some triumph. He really should have stepped aside for a better Labour candidate with new ideas
Good to hear that my fellow lefties are cordial in their visceral hatred.
What I mean is they are fairly polite about him (I’m not) because he’s one of theirs. But then they say “he really shouldn’t be standing again”, they grimace and sigh at the idea of him, they say “oh god, not kahn again, what’s he ever done” - it is emotional/visceral
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
If the tories hold on to some mayor's, it is only because the candidate have cut almost wholly with the party in terms of policies, style, branding etc and run in practice as independents. There are no good lessons for the tories to draw on from that. It means the candidates were able to pull through because they didn't have even the slightest whiff of right wing populism. Natcon, popcon, brexiteerism, war on woke, all that stuff is finished. Right wing populism only does emotion and division and outrage. It doesn't do governance. Tory mayoral winners are old style tories hated by the reform erg crowd. This is the end of the line for that style of politics.
A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over.
Susan Hall’s campaign has been fought from the gutter with dangerous and divisive politics.
Interesting he's putting that out already..
All the good news is for Hall All the bad news is for Khan All the good news is for Hall All the bad news is for Khan
It's beginning to feel like Potus2020 when I was still stuck in the toilets and PM'ing phrases like "where are his legions?" . Where are Khan's legions? Where is he winning?
More 2016 for me - strong turnout in areas that are good for Hall/Leave, indicators from early results that Hall/Leave are significantly overperforming... Wonder how long it'll take the media to come round to reality if it happens.
If turnout goes up in Havering & Redbridge, South West, West Central, Croydon & Sutton, Bexley & Bromley one would be tempted to call it for Susan Hall.
To help with folowing the turnout figures for London. I have made up a table of the 2021 numbers and what we have so far for 2024.
Cursory glance suggests turnout holding up better in areas that ought to lean Tory and falling off more in solidly Labour parts. That can’t be comforting viewing for the incumbent.
Not sure there's such a clear pattern - hardly any drop in Greenwich & Lewisham (and just announced Enfield & Haringey), which are pretty strongly Labour.
Really, the constituencies are too big and too diverse for this type of analysis - for instance, many of them pair an outer and an inner borough, which are likely to show very different patterns.
I am no psephologist, but here is a question. When looking at the PCC results 2024 (last held 2021) the swing from Con to Lab, except notably in Cumbria, where it is enormous seems so far to be less massive than I would expect if Labour are to have a landslide. Am I right? And are they a decent proxy for a GE?
I was thinking the same thing, especially in Cornwall&Devon where the Tories won easily in a county where all the projections say they would lose most of their seats.
What was the turnout? Somewhere around 20%?
That means that the parties were not fighting the PCC election seriously. After all, it is a an unnecessary position.
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
I will be so annoyed if the loathsome Khan just scrapes home
“Tory and Labour officials both now saying the London mayoralty could be closer than polls suggested... jitters/excitable chat... tho would still be a huge shock if it was anything other than a Sadiq Khan win”
If he does it by one (mine) I will be annoyed at MYSELF
However I think he’ll still win with a decent lead. My god how stupid are the Tories not putting up a decent candidate!!!
If Khan loses, it will be a sharp kick up the bum for a lot of left leaning voters just in time for the GE.
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
I just don't can't account for people's dislike of Kahn, unless it has something to do with race.
Must be it. Nail hit on head. People either love him or they’re hideous racists. 👍
I said he was obnoxious yesterday. I will reflect on that and try to be a better person and realise he’s truly ace.
Labour aren't going to last as long in office as perhaps they'd like if their reaction every time they lose an election is to imagine the loss must be down to prejudice.
‘If you don’t vote for me you’re a bigot’ isn’t the most persuasive argument to support any party.
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
The shocking thing is that we’re now nearing the end of the afternoon after polling day, and a batch of councils plus most of the PCC elections have yet to declare.
Labour have gained a couple of seats in London Colney ward, St Albans district council. Otherwise it is a clean sweep for the LibDems, other than one Green in St Peters and one Conservative in Harpenden South.
To help with folowing the turnout figures for London. I have made up a table of the 2021 numbers and what we have so far for 2024.
Cursory glance suggests turnout holding up better in areas that ought to lean Tory and falling off more in solidly Labour parts. That can’t be comforting viewing for the incumbent.
Not sure there's such a clear pattern - hardly any drop in Greenwich & Lewisham (and just announced Enfield & Haringey), which are pretty strongly Labour.
Really, the constituencies are too big and too diverse for this type of analysis - for instance, many of them pair an outer and an inner borough, which are likely to show very different patterns.
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
The postal votes will favour the Tories as they will mostly come from older voters. I've been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only be because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.
Tories now on exactly 50% held and lost, but the LibDem gains sadly haven’t kept pace
Interesting to know if this might be indicative of the LDs being squeezed in the forthcoming GE.
There was no particular reason why the number of LD and Tory councillors elected today - in a somewhat random distribution of seats - should have any equivalence, and the latest NEV puts the Tories clearly in second place. It was just the early declarations that suggested they might end up close.
Yes that's solid for Labour - esp with them doing well in the right places. London Mayor matters (a lot) but a shock there wouldn't change the underlying message - which is Labour heading for a very comfortable GE win.
Ooh you’re nervous, how delightful
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
The postal votes will favour the Tories as they will mostly come from older voters. I've been saying for months that Khan could lose and I strongly suspect that he will. If he holds on it will only be because the Tories chose such a poor candidate. Anyone half decent and it would not even have been in doubt.
Comments
@AdamBienkov
Source close to Sadiq Khan says they're "really worried" about the result in London which they still expect to be "really close".
Worth saying the final YouGov poll gave him a 22 point lead over Susan Hall. Would be the worst polling fail in history if she manages to somehow win"
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1786381804024336835
"If you sit it out, vote Green/Workers Party/Count Binface instead of Labour, you risk letting the Tories back in."
I can think of several right-on, leftie friends who have gone green or abstained in recent years who would be shocked back into the Labour fold by a Susan Hall victory.
OK then, what does a Hall Mayorality look like?
I said he was obnoxious yesterday. I will reflect on that and try to be a better person and realise he’s truly ace.
It's about his religion.
No doubt some dislike him because he is of Indian heritage, but I think the vast majority in the country are better than that.
*See Common People from Pulp for a brilliantly evocative example.
I'm in the clear if the worst happens. I went and voted Sadiq despite a light drizzle.
There's lefties who seem him as a bland Barite hogging a seat that would be perfect for the Jessiah.
ULEZ has touched on something - people see the future as being pushed out of cars or being pushed to buy more expensive EVs. In many parts of London, you need a car as part of daily life. In many ways, going car free is both what the very poorest and the richest do.
* rename if you wish.
[1] and I had it before Bond nicked it, so there.
However, once we go to a full General Election footing, that will change!
All the bad news is for Khan
All the good news is for Hall
All the bad news is for Khan
It's beginning to feel like Potus2020 when I was still stuck in the toilets and PM'ing phrases like "where are his legions?" . Where are Khan's legions? Where is he winning?
god, not kahn again, what’s he ever done” - it is emotional/visceral
I’m a lot blunter
You know, I've always had a sneaking respect for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over.
https://twitter.com/ImMakingItUpPBComeOnSeriously/status/07700900461
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWUfiqXCkgM
Labour HOLD Southmead x2
Labour 3 (+0)
Conservative 2 (+0)
Green 1 (+1)
Lib Dems 0 (-1)
Really, the constituencies are too big and too diverse for this type of analysis - for instance, many of them pair an outer and an inner borough, which are likely to show very different patterns.
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data
That means that the parties were not fighting the PCC election seriously. After all, it is a an unnecessary position.
I’m not sure why tho, in the end I reckon khan will have a reasonably easy win. Postal votes
Nothing in Tory Britain works like it used to.
In the case of the Tennyson quote, it was via a script for HMS Ulysses, which has been kicking around Hollywood since the 1960s…
https://www.stalbans.gov.uk/news/results-thursday-2-may-elections-st-albans-city-and-district-council
Edit: Is so bad it might not even be close.
I’m now starting to think the unthinkable and that she might win.