Is a trifecta of Tory mayoral victories on the cards? – politicalbetting.com

System · May 3

Is a trifecta of Tory mayoral victories on the cards? – politicalbetting.com

HOUCHEN HOLDS TEES VALLEY with reduced majority Ben Houchen (Con)81,930 (53.6%)Chris McEwan (Lab) 63,141 (41.3%)Simon Thorley (Lib Dem) 7,679 (5%)

Read the full story here

Lennon · May 3

First. Unlike the Tories in London.

logical_song · May 3

First?

GIN1138 · May 3

Third like the Tories (almost) in Blackpool

Andy_JS · May 3

New Statesman writer.

"jonn elledge
@JonnElledge

Generally curious how West Midlands Labour are so consistently bad at everything. It's the only regional Labour party I have any sense of an institutonal personality for, and the personality is "weirdly aggro while also consistently being shit at everything"."

https://twitter.com/JonnElledge/status/1786357608720273882

logical_song · May 3

logical_song said:
First?

Ok 2nd. In Suella's constituency where the Council has 4 more LibDems and 1 more Labour councillors.

RochdalePioneers · May 3

Houchen wins with -16.8% swing. Which would immolate every Tory MP in NE England.

Love the line that he "forgot" to bring his blue rosette to the count, and that no, he was unable to unable to borrow one. Not that he in anyway was trying to hide from the Tory Party. No sir.

Taz · May 3

Labour in W Mids talking how an Indy candidate will cost them they mayoralty over Gaza while ignoring the impact reform will have on the Tories.

Politics.

DM_Andy · May 3

From Basildon, Canvey, Southend Echo

The Conservatives have lost all eight of their seats on Castle Point as independents won all 39.

Thirteen Conservative candidates failed to appear on ballot papers after a "human error" on the nomination papers.

RochdalePioneers · May 3

Andy_JS said:
New Statesman writer.

"jonn elledge
@JonnElledge

Generally curious how West Midlands Labour are so consistently bad at everything. It's the only regional Labour party I have any sense of an institutonal personality for, and the personality is "weirdly aggro while also consistently being shit at everything"."

https://twitter.com/JonnElledge/status/1786357608720273882

They've been taking lessons from Teesside Labour?

Andy_JS · May 3

If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?

rkrkrk · May 3

Many thanks for the tip on Andy Street TSE. I got on that.

Monksfield · May 3

Current Scores on the Doors

Lab +69
Con -177
LD +30
Ind +63
Grn +15

Giving me flashbacks to the 1990s when half the local Tories on Bridgnorth DC started calling themselves Independents.

Led eventually to much hilarity when there was a schism over the creation of Shropshire UA and the blocs split into the Tories with Independents who led the council whilst the opposition was the Independents with Tories.

kinabalu · May 3

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?

It will have done.

Foxy · May 3

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?

I don't think there was a pro-Gaza party running in London:

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates

rcs1000 · May 3

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?

I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

Monksfield · May 3

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I don't think there was a pro-Gaza party running in London:

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates

No, but you can always withhold your vote - let’s wait for the turnout in Tower Hamlets.

bondegezou · May 3

FPT...

turbotubbs said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:
The Women's Equality Party have now won a Council seat. This puts them ahead of Reform, I think.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19
When you think about it, that’s absurd.
Without seeing a manifesto, its hard to judge, but I hope they are against the WASPI women's claim, for instance.

You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.

Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.

“We fully support the campaign by Women Against State Pension Inequality (WASPI) to reverse government plans to force pension arrangements onto women without allowing them sufficient time to plan their retirement.”

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/commons_vote_on_pension_equality_fails_women

Ratters · May 3

Monksfield said:
Current Scores on the Doors

Lab +69
Con -177
LD +30
Ind +63
Grn +15

Giving me flashbacks to the 1990s when half the local Tories on Bridgnorth DC started calling themselves Independents.

Led eventually to much hilarity when there was a schism over the creation of Shropshire UA and the blocs split into the Tories with Independents who led the council whilst the opposition was the Independents with Tories.

I prefer the viewpoint of total seats won:

Lab: 421
LD: 164
Con: 153
Ind + RA: 135
Grn: 37

...it's a close run race for second place on that measure.

bondegezou · May 3

FPT...

Taz said:

jamesdoyle said:
Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.
Do they know what a woman is ?

"WE recognise that the binary words “woman” and “man” do not reflect the gender experience of everyone in our country and support the right of all to define their sex or gender or to reject gendered divisions as they choose.

"Women, as a class, are discriminated against and oppressed. There is a shared experience as a class but that discrimination and oppression will often express itself differently for cis women and trans women, just as other factors such as age, ethnicity, economic background and disability are likely to have an impact.

"WE are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women and damage all genders. Cis inclusivity must never mean trans exclusivity, nor vice versa. There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all."

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/nov_17_statement

Anabobazina · May 3

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.

Foxy · May 3

Having thrown away the biggest numerical majority in parliamentary by-election history, Festus Akinbusoye - the losing Conservative candidate in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election last year - has now lost re-election as Bedfordshire PCC to Labour.

https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/1786374307595083942?t=hP_XBWC9oM1cs6G55h2SaA&s=19

Pulpstar · May 3

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I don't think there was a pro-Gaza party running in London:

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates

Green or Animal Equality party look a natural home for that sort of vote.

Don't forget the stay at home party too.

bondegezou · May 3

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I don't think there was a pro-Gaza party running in London:

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates

There was not, although the Greens talked about Gaza a bit.

numbertwelve · May 3

We know Rishi’s political positioning sways wildly depending on what he thinks the winning formula is going to be that particular day.

If Hall runs Khan close imagine just how batshit the next relaunch is going to be.

Andy_JS · May 3

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I don't think there was a pro-Gaza party running in London:

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates

True but it could have depressed turnout.

RochdalePioneers · May 3

Ben Houchen should be added to the list of contenders to be Tory leader. Dense, dodgy, ashamed of the party. He'd be brilliant.

Northern_Al · May 3

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.

If Hall wins, 'forgot to vote' seems to me to be perfectly adequate grounds for divorce.

MikeL · May 3

Immediate GE looking unlikely.

Q2 2024 now available at 22 on Betfair.

Leon · May 3

If you need cheering due to your party’s failure, or the dreary weather - here you go

A reminder of when the Onion was so funny it was genius. Also very dark: don’t think you’d get away with this now

https://youtu.be/MGXSPf9b-xI?si=pfqZFox1sA93khat

Malmesbury · May 3

numbertwelve said:
We know Rishi’s political positioning sways wildly depending on what he thinks the winning formula is going to be that particular day.

If Hall runs Khan close imagine just how batshit the next relaunch is going to be.

As a founder member of the Royal Society for the Appreciation of Guano*, could people stop referring to insane politics as “batshit”?

If you spread batshit on the fields you get great crop yields.

If you spread Susan Halls policies on the fields…..

*a portrait of our patron -

Benpointer · May 3

Monksfield said:
Current Scores on the Doors

Lab +69
Con -177
LD +30
Ind +63
Grn +15

Giving me flashbacks to the 1990s when half the local Tories on Bridgnorth DC started calling themselves Independents.

Led eventually to much hilarity when there was a schism over the creation of Shropshire UA and the blocs split into the Tories with Independents who led the council whilst the opposition was the Independents with Tories.

The Tory Popular People's Front versus the People's Popular Tory Front.

(Edit: I'm using the Citizen Smith definition of 'Popular')

bondegezou · May 3

Conservatives hold Suffolk PCC but with an 11.6% swing to Labour

SirNorfolkPassmore · May 3

Foxy said:
Having thrown away the biggest numerical majority in parliamentary by-election history, Festus Akinbusoye - the losing Conservative candidate in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election last year - has now lost re-election as Bedfordshire PCC to Labour.

https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/1786374307595083942?t=hP_XBWC9oM1cs6G55h2SaA&s=19

It's very unfair to say he "threw away" a huge majority. He seemed to be a perfectly decent candidate for a party that was doomed to lose that by-election. There's nothing he personally could have done to change the course of events, and there was nothing he did personally to cause people to vote against him.

With some by-elections, the candidate is a serious a problem. Labour's Rochdale candidate is an obvious example. Others aren't ideal (the Tories picked a buffoon in Chesham, and a man who'd apparently not been there in Shropshire) but the margins were enough in both cases that it probably wasn't decisive. But I don't think any real blame can attach to the Mid Beds Tory candidate.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 3

It's not a trifecta; it is (or would be) a treble. A trifecta is the first three in the same race; a treble is firsts in three different races.

rcs1000 · May 3

bondegezou said:
FPT...
Taz said:

jamesdoyle said:
Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.
Do they know what a woman is ?
"WE recognise that the binary words “woman” and “man” do not reflect the gender experience of everyone in our country and support the right of all to define their sex or gender or to reject gendered divisions as they choose.

"Women, as a class, are discriminated against and oppressed. There is a shared experience as a class but that discrimination and oppression will often express itself differently for cis women and trans women, just as other factors such as age, ethnicity, economic background and disability are likely to have an impact.

"WE are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women and damage all genders. Cis inclusivity must never mean trans exclusivity, nor vice versa. There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all."

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/nov_17_statement

There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all

Translation: we're not going anywhere near this issue

MoonRabbit · May 3

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.

Look, I’m sorry 🥺

Peter_the_Punter · May 3

DecrepiterJohnL said:
It's not a trifecta; it is (or would be) a treble. A trifecta is the first three in the same race; a treble is firsts in three different races.

Correct and thank you John.

The PB Pedantry Patrol never sleeps.

FF43 · May 3

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.

If Starmer is more Machiavellian than I think he actually is, he would allow Hall to win the mayorship of London. In this way the remaining senior Conservative official will remind people every day over the next four years just what a bunch of obsessive fruitcakes the Conservatives are. Any new broom leader of the Conservatives trying to steer towards a "sensible party" will be thwarted at every turn.

Nigelb · May 3

This is a really good article.

How China is moving up Apple's supply chain
Apple is trying to move some of its production out of China. Yet, Chinese firms are taking over an increasingly high-tech share of Apple's manufacturing. What does this mean for decoupling?
https://www.high-capacity.com/p/how-china-is-moving-up-apples-supply

Nigelb · May 3

The US version of Arkell v Pressdram

The LA Police Foundation sent a C&D letter to the seller of shirts that said "FUCK THE LAPD."

The Foundation said it holds exclusive IP rights to the word "LAPD."

The seller's response was succinct..
https://twitter.com/RobertFreundLaw/status/1786079615544590678

Mexicanpete · May 3

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.

Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.

AlsoLei · May 3

bondegezou said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I don't think there was a pro-Gaza party running in London:

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates
There was not, although the Greens talked about Gaza a bit.

Greens will certainly mop up a lot of the young vote. I'd expect them to gain a 4th London-wide member of the Assembly.

They'd need a greater than 15% Labour -> Green swing to win a constituency seat - North East or Lambeth & Southwark would be the most likely. But that'd be proper earthquake territory.

TOPPING · May 3

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...
Taz said:

jamesdoyle said:
Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.
Do they know what a woman is ?
"WE recognise that the binary words “woman” and “man” do not reflect the gender experience of everyone in our country and support the right of all to define their sex or gender or to reject gendered divisions as they choose.

"Women, as a class, are discriminated against and oppressed. There is a shared experience as a class but that discrimination and oppression will often express itself differently for cis women and trans women, just as other factors such as age, ethnicity, economic background and disability are likely to have an impact.

"WE are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women and damage all genders. Cis inclusivity must never mean trans exclusivity, nor vice versa. There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all."

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/nov_17_statement
There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all

Translation: we're not going anywhere near this issue

I mean I am no expert (!) but is there some kind of code in this line:

"We are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women"

bondegezou · May 3

AlsoLei said:

bondegezou said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I don't think there was a pro-Gaza party running in London:

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates
There was not, although the Greens talked about Gaza a bit.
Greens will certainly mop up a lot of the young vote. I'd expect them to gain a 4th London-wide member of the Assembly.

They'd need a greater than 15% Labour -> Green swing to win a constituency seat - North East or Lambeth & Southwark would be the most likely. But that'd be proper earthquake territory.

Yeah, I doubt they'll win a constituency seat.

Only Labour and Conservative have ever won constituency seats in the London Assembly, although I expect the LibDems to break that record this year.

Malmesbury · May 3

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...
Taz said:

jamesdoyle said:
Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.
Do they know what a woman is ?
"WE recognise that the binary words “woman” and “man” do not reflect the gender experience of everyone in our country and support the right of all to define their sex or gender or to reject gendered divisions as they choose.

"Women, as a class, are discriminated against and oppressed. There is a shared experience as a class but that discrimination and oppression will often express itself differently for cis women and trans women, just as other factors such as age, ethnicity, economic background and disability are likely to have an impact.

"WE are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women and damage all genders. Cis inclusivity must never mean trans exclusivity, nor vice versa. There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all."

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/nov_17_statement
There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all

Translation: we're not going anywhere near this issue
I mean I am no expert (!) but is there some kind of code in this line:

"We are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women"

I ran it through a Colossus simulator then through Linear A & B and got - “We wish to express no opinion that might offend anyone who is still awake.”

Anabobazina · May 3

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.

The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.

bondegezou · May 3

Labour hold North Wales PCC on a mere 4.5% swing to them.

Sean_F · May 3

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Foxy said:
Having thrown away the biggest numerical majority in parliamentary by-election history, Festus Akinbusoye - the losing Conservative candidate in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election last year - has now lost re-election as Bedfordshire PCC to Labour.

https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/1786374307595083942?t=hP_XBWC9oM1cs6G55h2SaA&s=19
It's very unfair to say he "threw away" a huge majority. He seemed to be a perfectly decent candidate for a party that was doomed to lose that by-election. There's nothing he personally could have done to change the course of events, and there was nothing he did personally to cause people to vote against him.

With some by-elections, the candidate is a serious a problem. Labour's Rochdale candidate is an obvious example. Others aren't ideal (the Tories picked a buffoon in Chesham, and a man who'd apparently not been there in Shropshire) but the margins were enough in both cases that it probably wasn't decisive. But I don't think any real blame can attach to the Mid Beds Tory candidate.

Yes, his vote share was only down 6% on 2021, a respectable performance, in the circumstances.

bondegezou · May 3

Labour hold Gwent PCC, but with a 1.7% swing to the Tories.

viewcode · May 3

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...
Taz said:

jamesdoyle said:
Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.
Do they know what a woman is ?
"WE recognise that the binary words “woman” and “man” do not reflect the gender experience of everyone in our country and support the right of all to define their sex or gender or to reject gendered divisions as they choose.

"Women, as a class, are discriminated against and oppressed. There is a shared experience as a class but that discrimination and oppression will often express itself differently for cis women and trans women, just as other factors such as age, ethnicity, economic background and disability are likely to have an impact.

"WE are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women and damage all genders. Cis inclusivity must never mean trans exclusivity, nor vice versa. There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all."

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/nov_17_statement
There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all

Translation: we're not going anywhere near this issue
I mean I am no expert (!) but is there some kind of code in this line:

"We are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women"

They are going to do a Thing. They are not quite sure what the Thing is yet. But they are committed to doing that Thing, and when that Thing is done, it will be a Good Thing and not a Bad Thing. And if you will look over there, you will see a squirrel.

bondegezou · May 3

Labour hold South Wales PCC on, again, a small 3.4% swing to Labour.

MoonRabbit · May 3

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.

I was only trying to be a psephologist ☹️

I did say last night and today I still sure Khan has won it with gap in the teens.

Labours struggles today because of Gaza Backlash isn’t at all fair really, in the politics of things.

Mexicanpete · May 3

bondegezou said:
Labour hold Gwent PCC, but with a 1.7% swing to the Tories.

Labour stuck in a 20 mph zone behind Drakeford on his bicycle.

Foxy · May 3

FF43 said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
If Starmer is more Machiavellian than I think he actually is, he would allow Hall to win the mayorship of London. In this way the remaining senior Conservative official will remind people every day over the next four years just what a bunch of obsessive fruitcakes the Conservatives are. Any new broom leader of the Conservatives trying to steer towards a "sensible party" will be thwarted at every turn.

I don't think he would undermine Khan deliberately, but your description of how a Hall Mayorality would work out.

TOPPING · May 3

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...
Taz said:

jamesdoyle said:
Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.
Do they know what a woman is ?
"WE recognise that the binary words “woman” and “man” do not reflect the gender experience of everyone in our country and support the right of all to define their sex or gender or to reject gendered divisions as they choose.

"Women, as a class, are discriminated against and oppressed. There is a shared experience as a class but that discrimination and oppression will often express itself differently for cis women and trans women, just as other factors such as age, ethnicity, economic background and disability are likely to have an impact.

"WE are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women and damage all genders. Cis inclusivity must never mean trans exclusivity, nor vice versa. There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all."

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/nov_17_statement
There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all

Translation: we're not going anywhere near this issue
I mean I am no expert (!) but is there some kind of code in this line:

"We are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women"
I ran it through a Colossus simulator then through Linear A & B and got - “We wish to express no opinion that might offend anyone who is still awake.”

But isn't the "eras[ure of] cis women precisely the charge made against the trans activists.

Edit: I mean for heaven's sake let's leave it there I don't want this thread to take that turn but I am interested in the language.

Andy_JS · May 3

bondegezou said:
Labour hold Gwent PCC, but with a 1.7% swing to the Tories.

Amazing what a 20mph speed limit can do.

AlsoLei · May 3

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.
The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.

The count has started! It's just slow because it's being done by hand this time round - they're currently still doing verification: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-status

(I read something about them going back to manual counting because they were allowing for the possibility of a concurrent GE count, but I'm not sure I understand the reasoning)

bondegezou · May 3

AlsoLei said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.
The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.
The count has started! It's just slow because it's being done by hand this time round - they're currently still doing verification: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-status

(I read something about them going back to manual counting because they were allowing for the possibility of a concurrent GE count, but I'm not sure I understand the reasoning)

I thought the reason was the switch from SV to FPTP.

ClippP · May 3

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.
The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.

Do you by any chance have an army of slaves whom we could call upon to work throughout the night, just so that you don't get stressed?

Not to mention an army of volunteers who keep an eye on things on behalf of the candidates?

Your getting stressed is a small price to pay for other people's wellbeing.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 3

Labour easily win NE Mayoralty

wooliedyed · May 3

Galloway claiming a win in one of the safe Rochdale wards, they've grabbed a distant second on 19% in another

MaxPB · May 3

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.

Sadiq is going to win by 10+ points, this is just expectations management from Labour. There's no way it's actually close let alone it being a loss.

FF43 · May 3

Foxy said:

FF43 said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
If Starmer is more Machiavellian than I think he actually is, he would allow Hall to win the mayorship of London. In this way the remaining senior Conservative official will remind people every day over the next four years just what a bunch of obsessive fruitcakes the Conservatives are. Any new broom leader of the Conservatives trying to steer towards a "sensible party" will be thwarted at every turn.
I don't think he would undermine Khan deliberately, but your description of how a Hall Mayorality would work out.

You always play to win. Starmer will want Khan to win and the Conservatives will want Hall to win. But Hall as Mayor of London would be a disaster for them. They would be much better off if she loses.

TOPPING · May 3

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Sadiq is going to win by 10+ points, this is just expectations management from Labour. There's no way it's actually close let alone it being a loss.

I agree. Interesting if there was someone with a smidge more personality then it might be much closer. Shaun Bailey would have wiped the floor with Khan this time round.

viewcode · May 3

Sunil_Prasannan said:
Labour easily win NE Mayoralty

https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/politics/council/new-north-east-mayor-as-results-announced-at-sunderland-count-4615677

MoonRabbit · May 3

Labour claim comfortable win in the new East Midlands Mayoralty.

Tories wiped out on Castle Point.

TOPPING · May 3

With these large anti-Cons swings some of the responses remind me of the MOTD interview with Bukayo Saka after the let's be honest quite challenging to the Arse Spurs game.

Interviewer: You wouldn't want that to happen every game.
Saka: Um, we won, so yes I would.

RochdalePioneers · May 3

wooliedyed said:
Galloway claiming a win in one of the safe Rochdale wards, they've grabbed a distant second on 19% in another

In Milkstone and Deeplish - hardly a shock in the circumstances.

Benpointer · May 3

ClippP said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.
The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.
Do you by any chance have an army of slaves whom we could call upon to work throughout the night, just so that you don't get stressed?

Not to mention an army of volunteers who keep an eye on things on behalf of the candidates?

Your getting stressed is a small price to pay for other people's wellbeing.

Online voting - that's the way to go.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 3

Vote pro-Gaza activists, get Sunak.

turbotubbs · May 3

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?

There are not many muslims in London though are there? Oh.

(15% in 2021)

DavidL · May 3

Street and Houchen have both done way better than their parties and are potential future leaders. But, from their point of view, do you want to be a Mayor or do you want to sit on the Opposition benches for a decade? If either of them had lost i would have expected them to find a seat and put their hat in the ring but given that they've won I expect them to stay put.

PJH · May 3

Monksfield said:
Current Scores on the Doors

Lab +69
Con -177
LD +30
Ind +63
Grn +15

Giving me flashbacks to the 1990s when half the local Tories on Bridgnorth DC started calling themselves Independents.

Led eventually to much hilarity when there was a schism over the creation of Shropshire UA and the blocs split into the Tories with Independents who led the council whilst the opposition was the Independents with Tories.

I once knew an old LD Councillor who called them CISCMAI - "Conservative in Sheep's Clothing Masquerading as Independent"

Sunil_Prasannan · May 3

turbotubbs said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
There are not many muslims in London though are there? Oh.

(15% in 2021)

Ilford North is 50% Muslim.

Scott_xP · May 3

@benrileysmith

Are the Tory rebels giving up?

After Ben Houchen’s victory the air is coming out of the balloon

“It is off ramp”, a Tory rebel source tells me. “Rishi is now going to own the election. He gets what he wants. He is going to lead us to oblivion.”

Another: “we're off to the pub"

turbotubbs · May 3

bondegezou said:
FPT...

turbotubbs said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:
The Women's Equality Party have now won a Council seat. This puts them ahead of Reform, I think.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19
When you think about it, that’s absurd.
Without seeing a manifesto, its hard to judge, but I hope they are against the WASPI women's claim, for instance.

You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.

Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.
“We fully support the campaign by Women Against State Pension Inequality (WASPI) to reverse government plans to force pension arrangements onto women without allowing them sufficient time to plan their retirement.”

https://www.womensequality.org.uk/commons_vote_on_pension_equality_fails_women

Whatever the rights and wrongs of how much warning the women had, the pension age for men and women should be identical. Arguably, given the shorter life expectancy of men, theirs could be lower.

DM_Andy · May 3

Andy_JS said:

bondegezou said:
Labour hold Gwent PCC, but with a 1.7% swing to the Tories.
Amazing what a 20mph speed limit can do.

If there were swings to Conservative elsewhere in Wales (Spoiler: Nowhere else in Wales). Probably more likely the two-term incumbent retiring and the lack of independent and minor party candidates (8.9% in 2021).

RochdalePioneers · May 3

DavidL said:
Street and Houchen have both done way better than their parties and are potential future leaders. But, from their point of view, do you want to be a Mayor or do you want to sit on the Opposition benches for a decade? If either of them had lost i would have expected them to find a seat and put their hat in the ring but given that they've won I expect them to stay put.

Houchen has put Teesside back on the map. Little else of value, but considering how relatively known the area was that in itself is enough for some voters.

I am very very critical of him and expect fun times ahead as the authorities start to pull back the curtain. But it isn't what he is doing (regeneration) that I have a problem with, it is the brazen malfeasance and the way that all criticism is blocked and silenced, as if asking questions is a crime.

MoonRabbit · May 3

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
Labour easily win NE Mayoralty
https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/politics/council/new-north-east-mayor-as-results-announced-at-sunderland-count-4615677

This is a big win.

McGuinness (Lab): 185,051 (41.3%)
Jamie Driscoll (Ind): 126,652 (28.2%)
Guy Renner-Thompson (Con): 52,446 (11.7%)
Paul Donaghy: (Reform) 41,147 (9.2%)
Other: 43,116 votes (9.6%)

Anabobazina · May 3

ClippP said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Hall is slowly drifting again. That young Rabbit chap has beaten you with her mind games. She set the hare running here.
The whole experience is more evidence (as if any were needed) that delaying the count until Saturday is moronic. Three days of stressful speculation for all sides: just count the votes already and make it stop.
Do you by any chance have an army of slaves whom we could call upon to work throughout the night, just so that you don't get stressed?

Not to mention an army of volunteers who keep an eye on things on behalf of the candidates?

Your getting stressed is a small price to pay for other people's wellbeing.

Other places manage it.

bondegezou · May 3

Sunil_Prasannan said:
Labour easily win NE Mayoralty

The one poll was 35% Lab, 33% Driscoll. The final result was 41% to 28%.

viewcode · May 3

Con have lost 215 after 53 of 107 councils declared. At that rate their losses will be near to 400 than 500.

AbandonedHope · May 3

Labour have just won the Mayoralty in York and North Yorkshire. 15k majority.

Andy_JS · May 3

If the Tories rigged the system by bringing in FPTP and voter ID, is the Labour source in the tweet above saying the next general election is effectively rigged as well, because it will also be fought under FPTP and with voter ID?

nico679 · May 3

Mark Harper with the hospital pass . Never has Tees Valley done so much heavy lifting !

After a slowing of Tory losses momentum building towards a total meltdown during the afternoon and evening.

wooliedyed · May 3

Workers Party win a second seat in Rochdale, old school Liberal another

bondegezou · May 3

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Sadiq is going to win by 10+ points, this is just expectations management from Labour. There's no way it's actually close let alone it being a loss.
I agree. Interesting if there was someone with a smidge more personality then it might be much closer. Shaun Bailey would have wiped the floor with Khan this time round.

The Shaun Bailey who had to resign his positions as chair of both the London Assembly's police and crime committee and its economy committee after he was caught partying during COVID lockdown?

Scott_xP · May 3

@REWearmouth

Labour says it has won the York & North Yorkshire Mayor race

“This is a truly historic result in York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer's Labour party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard," says a spokeswoman

MoonRabbit · May 3

🤮

God didn’t create North Yorkshire for it to go Labour ☹️

Andy_JS · May 3

With about half the councils declared the Tories are down 218 seats, although perhaps the remaining councils have more seats at stake.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729

SandyRentool · May 3

PJH said:

Monksfield said:
Current Scores on the Doors

Lab +69
Con -177
LD +30
Ind +63
Grn +15

Giving me flashbacks to the 1990s when half the local Tories on Bridgnorth DC started calling themselves Independents.

Led eventually to much hilarity when there was a schism over the creation of Shropshire UA and the blocs split into the Tories with Independents who led the council whilst the opposition was the Independents with Tories.
I once knew an old LD Councillor who called them CISCMAI - "Conservative in Sheep's Clothing Masquerading as Independent"

Independents. Residents. Ratepayers.

All Tories.

ThomasNashe · May 3

bondegezou said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
I think it will certainly have damaged Labour in London, the only question is how much, and whether Khan being a Muslim will have ameliorated the effect somewhat.

I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out.
Sadiq is going to win by 10+ points, this is just expectations management from Labour. There's no way it's actually close let alone it being a loss.
I agree. Interesting if there was someone with a smidge more personality then it might be much closer. Shaun Bailey would have wiped the floor with Khan this time round.
The Shaun Bailey who had to resign his positions as chair of both the London Assembly's police and crime committee and its economy committee after he was caught partying during COVID lockdown?

Bailey would have been a better candidate than Hall, but he was still a very poor choice last time out; so lightweight a sudden gust of wind would have blown him away.

PJH · May 3

logical_song said:

logical_song said:
First?
Ok 2nd. In Suella's constituency where the Council has 4 more LibDems and 1 more Labour councillors.

There was also a County Council by-election there yesterday, Sarisbury Ward. No change but a large swing

Con 46.6% (-10.8)
LD 34.3% (+21.3)
Lab 13.2 (+0.7)
Ind 5.7 (-7.6)

No Hampshire Ind (4.0)

Just thought I'd post it for completeness as Fareham was reviewed. Surprised LD vote was up rather than Labour, given neither were anywhere previously but perhaps shows that in former LD-ish areas there is still a tendency for the anti-Con vote to go to them.

No danger to Ms Braverman.

Anabobazina · May 3

MoonRabbit said:
🤮

God didn’t create North Yorkshire for it to go Labour ☹️

Cry me a river

nico679 · May 3

viewcode said:
Con have lost 215 after 53 of 107 councils declared. At that rate their losses will be near to 400 than 500.

You have to look at seats contested. There are some big councils to come . Only around 1,100 of the 2,600 seats have been declared .

The Lib Dems should do well this afternoon .

DM_Andy · May 3

Sunil_Prasannan said:

turbotubbs said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
There are not many muslims in London though are there? Oh.

(15% in 2021)
Ilford North is 50% Muslim.

Really? The data from ONS say otherwise
Aldborough 28.0%
Barkingside 34.8%
Clayhall 38.4%
Cranbrook 48.9%
Fairlop 18.4%
Fullwell 28.6%
Hainault 17.7%
Valentines 47.3%

So the Muslim vote is substantial but it's not 50% of population in any ward much less 50% of the constituency's electorate.

SandyRentool · May 3

Sunil_Prasannan said:
Vote pro-Gaza activists, get Sunak.

Vote Hamas, get Tory.

MoonRabbit · May 3

Anabobazina said:

MoonRabbit said:
🤮

God didn’t create North Yorkshire for it to go Labour ☹️
Cry me a river

**** off

ThomasNashe · May 3

MoonRabbit said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
Labour easily win NE Mayoralty
https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/politics/council/new-north-east-mayor-as-results-announced-at-sunderland-count-4615677
This is a big win.

McGuinness (Lab): 185,051 (41.3%)
Jamie Driscoll (Ind): 126,652 (28.2%)
Guy Renner-Thompson (Con): 52,446 (11.7%)
Paul Donaghy: (Reform) 41,147 (9.2%)
Other: 43,116 votes (9.6%)

That is a brilliant result for Starmer.

Anabobazina · May 3

Sunil_Prasannan said:

turbotubbs said:

Andy_JS said:
If Gaza has damaged Labour in the West Midlands, as claimed, isn't it fair to ask whether it might have damaged them in London as well?
There are not many muslims in London though are there? Oh.

(15% in 2021)
Ilford North is 50% Muslim.

Fake news

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