Why the local elections could bring some temporary respite to Sunak – politicalbetting.com

viewcode said:

Scott_xP said:

@SkyNews

BREAKING: JK Rowling's comments about new hate crime laws "are not assessed to be criminal", police have said, as they confirmed no further action would be taken

Wasn't this already known up front? Specifically, that the exposition of gender critical thought was not within the remit of the thing.

Or the police wont go after her as she has the means and platform to fight back whereas they will go after someone who says the same thing because they dont.....sorry I have no faith in the police not to do so

viewcode said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

With respect to the Great Trans Debate, a PBer (forget who) opined recently, that unlike in UK, in US the trans issue was "subsumed" (think that was the term) into/by the debate over abortion in wake of repeal of Roe v Wade.

Which is NOT really correct, at least IMHO.

For example, the recent MAGA-manufactured flap over coincidence of Easter (a notoriously "movable feast") being same day as Transgender Visibility Day.

Which as far as I can tell, had ZERO to do with the pro-life versus pro-choice controversy.

Personally think that GOPer politicos and their mouthpieces are banging the anti-trans drum so loudly, is because of its appeal to voters BEYOND the core pro-life constituency.

That is, to folks who are either pro-choice or ambivalent on abortion, BUT who (for whatever reason) are opposed to and/or repulsed by gender-bending.

Note that there was similar dynamic a generation ago, when GOP campaigned with vigor against gays and lesbians. For example, with TV campaign ads featuring the alleged debauchery of San Francisco Gay Pride parades.

So GOP nutbags still making a meal of the homophobia, but beyond this, the MAGA-GOP has switched to anti-trans, as having broader (ahem) appeal.

'Twas me, oh SSI2. My argument was based on the belief that most Republicans who are anti-trans are also anti-abortion, and vice versa

Compare and contrast the two maps here:

• Anti-abortion: https://states.guttmacher.org/policies/
  
• Anti-trans: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/anti-trans-legislative-risk-assessment-cd3
  

The overlay, whilst not exact (Montana!), is apparent. Although I am sympathetic to your add-on theory: buy one, get one free so to speak.

Also note Florida, which is actually among the LEAST restrictive re: abortion of Southern states, but at the top of the charts re: restricting trans.

This being explained in large measure, by desire of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Budapest) to burnish his man-bites-dog credentials for evangelicals & other GOP base voters with a woodie (ahem) re: gender-bending.

NOTE that both charts are charting state legislative action NOT public opinion, while the one may be somewhat reflective of the other, given gerrymandering & other factors, elected legislators tend to be more "extreme" in their opinions, than electorate at large.

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Evening all,

Having Sunak out and about all the time meeting real people and taking questions on local radio is working out well I see.

Nothing that five years of hostility couldn't have beaten out of him.
The old system- go and fight someone hopeless first, have some setbacks on the way up- had a lot to commend it.

(See Starmer as well. He got a fair bit wrong on the early years, mostly due to inexperience.)

Sunak wouldn't have done it imho unless he was offered the right kind of seat from day one.

He talks a lot about being from ordinary background and getting where he is with hard work. But when in his life has he actually had to deal with a real difficult or major setback?

Starmer probably didn't have the years left in him to do the 'lose in a tory safe seat first'.

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Yes we have all out elections too. That includes council seats in new wards in areas that were up in bad years locally for the Tories, ie 2023 and 2022 as well as the better year of 2021.

That combined with fewer seats being up than last year and a reasonable performance by Susan Hall given current polls mean the local elections, although bad, won't be bad enough for Sunak to be removed by Tory MPs and he will survive until the general election as leader and PM

I see the Conservatives are desperately trying to downplay expectations on the May elections.

We can do better than that - what's a "reasonable performance" by Susan Hall, the 35% achieved by Shaun Bailey, 30%?, 25%?

As for the local and PCC contests, we can take a view as well. As for the former, how about losing Dudley to Labour and Dorset to the LDs? What about the eight Conservative held District Councils with all up elections?

They would be Basildon, Epping Forest, Fareham, Gloucester, Harlow, Havant, Nuneaton & Bedworth and Redditch? Would losing control of half of those represent a bad night? What about losing control of all of them?

The Conservatives currently have 30 of the 39 PCCs in England and Wales having won the 2021 elections by 14.5 points. What would be a bad night in your view - losing ten, losing twenty?

A bad night would be Tory candidates losing the majority of PCCs, losing most of the Tory held councils up with all out elections and Susan Hall getting less than a quarter of the vote in London.

Anything else would be par+ given current dire Tory polling

kinabalu said:

bigjohnowls said:

rcs1000 said:

@bigjohnowls

I look forward you posting - and celebrating - the upcoming record performance of Starmer, when he registers more Labour votes in England than Corbyn achieved in 2017.

Why nothing will change

What POLICY are you looking forward to as a positive change under SKS

Not being these Tories is an absolute killer of a policy.

Only in your mind. A killer policy is this is what is wrong and this is how we will fix it.....a policy of we will continue as is but hey we are not tories should get you spat on

rcs1000 said:

bigjohnowls said:

rcs1000 said:

@bigjohnowls

I look forward you posting - and celebrating - the upcoming record performance of Starmer, when he registers more Labour votes in England than Corbyn achieved in 2017.

Why nothing will change

What POLICY are you looking forward to as a positive change under SKS

Why would I want policies? All governments do is fuck things up. I am looking for masterly inaction.

Do nothing, do it as slowly as possible, and let the country sort itself out. There is an argument for this: people eventually sort problems out without government help.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

viewcode said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

With respect to the Great Trans Debate, a PBer (forget who) opined recently, that unlike in UK, in US the trans issue was "subsumed" (think that was the term) into/by the debate over abortion in wake of repeal of Roe v Wade.

Which is NOT really correct, at least IMHO.

For example, the recent MAGA-manufactured flap over coincidence of Easter (a notoriously "movable feast") being same day as Transgender Visibility Day.

Which as far as I can tell, had ZERO to do with the pro-life versus pro-choice controversy.

Personally think that GOPer politicos and their mouthpieces are banging the anti-trans drum so loudly, is because of its appeal to voters BEYOND the core pro-life constituency.

That is, to folks who are either pro-choice or ambivalent on abortion, BUT who (for whatever reason) are opposed to and/or repulsed by gender-bending.

Note that there was similar dynamic a generation ago, when GOP campaigned with vigor against gays and lesbians. For example, with TV campaign ads featuring the alleged debauchery of San Francisco Gay Pride parades.

So GOP nutbags still making a meal of the homophobia, but beyond this, the MAGA-GOP has switched to anti-trans, as having broader (ahem) appeal.

'Twas me, oh SSI2. My argument was based on the belief that most Republicans who are anti-trans are also anti-abortion, and vice versa

Compare and contrast the two maps here:

• Anti-abortion: https://states.guttmacher.org/policies/
  
• Anti-trans: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/anti-trans-legislative-risk-assessment-cd3
  

The overlay, whilst not exact (Montana!), is apparent. Although I am sympathetic to your add-on theory: buy one, get one free so to speak.

Also note Florida, which is actually among the LEAST restrictive re: abortion of Southern states, but at the top of the charts re: restricting trans.

This being explained in large measure, by desire of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Budapest) to burnish his man-bites-dog credentials for evangelicals & other GOP base voters with a woodie (ahem) re: gender-bending.

NOTE that both charts are charting state legislative action NOT public opinion, while the one may be somewhat reflective of the other, given gerrymandering & other factors, elected legislators tend to be more "extreme" in their opinions, than electorate at large.

Florida just bought in a 6-week limit: the map hasn't been updated.

And yes, you are right it's state legislators not public opinion. Which makes it interesting and tricky: if they represent their public they will win and Trump will win. If the public disagrees, then they will lose and Biden will win. If only I knew which was which...

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Has there ever been an MP more out of their depth than Gillian Keegan?

Perhaps Helen Whately?

My nominee is I.T. Trebitsch-Lincoln.

My son told me his story: it's absolutely insane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Trebitsch-Lincoln

It would make a good film!

"The Secret Lives of Trebitsch Lincoln" by Bernard Wasserstein (1988) most definitely worth a read!

As for the movie, who(m) do you think should play the title character (in way more ways than one)?

My nominee - Tom Cruise. OR maybe George Clooney?

OR why not PBs own John Loony? Certainly has proper surname for the part!

For such a compulsive liar, turncoat and con man it seems ideal for Boris Johnson to launch a film career.

Though I suspect he would learn his lines as well as Lorenzo St Dubois in The Producers (1967).

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Somebody once said Rishi Sunak sounds like Tony Blair. Wrong.

He's like Ed Miliband.

"Don't forget to scan your ClubCard!"

As if Sunak would know what one was, or be able to find a till in Tescos!

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Evening all,

Having Sunak out and about all the time meeting real people and taking questions on local radio is working out well I see.

Nothing that five years of hostility couldn't have beaten out of him.
The old system- go and fight someone hopeless first, have some setbacks on the way up- had a lot to commend it.

(See Starmer as well. He got a fair bit wrong on the early years, mostly due to inexperience.)

Sunak wouldn't have done it imho unless he was offered the right kind of seat from day one.

He talks a lot about being from ordinary background and getting where he is with hard work. But when in his life has he actually had to deal with a real difficult or major setback?

Starmer probably didn't have the years left in him to do the 'lose in a tory safe seat first'.

This will be the first general election since 1974 that neither major party leader has fought a parliamentary constituency they lost first before getting a more winnable seat or even been a local councillor.

While Starmer and Sunak are both intelligent relatively centrist technocrats, rather like Wilson and Heath who also went into Parliament at their first attempt, their lack of political campaigning experience under fire sometimes shows and will show more so on the campaign

That's...a very good point. Well done you.

StillWaters said:

Someone just mentioned a stat to me which is entirely random but quite thought provoking

In 1953 the average house cost 150 ounces of gold

Today the average house would cost you 166 ounces.

In the last 70 years - measured in gold - prices are up only 10%

Perhaps the issue isn’t that house prices are too high - or that supply is constrained - but that fundamentally our productivity has been insufficient to allow for wage increases to keep pace with inflation

And for lower earners whose productivity growth has not been matched with equivalent wage rises?

"in the report “Have productivity and pay decoupled in the UK?” published by the London School of Economics’ Programme on Innovation and Diffusion (POID) shows that between 1981 and 2019, prior to the Covid-19 hit, productivity rose by 87 per cent but median employee wages only rose by 62 per cent: a 25 percentage point “overall decoupling” between productivity growth and median wage growth."
https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2021/k-November-21/Wages-of-typical-UK-employee-have-become-decoupled-from-productivity

Taz said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Have we done this?

Humza Yousaf has said it is "increasingly difficult" to shield his children from racism after he was targeted with Islamophobic graffiti near his Dundee home.

Racist slurs relating to the Scottish first minister's Pakistani heritage were sprayed on the walls and fences of homes in a street in Broughty Ferry, on Monday.

It is near to where the first minister lives with his wife and two children.

The graffiti, which has since been removed, happened on the day the Scottish government's controversial new hate crime laws came into force.

https://news.sky.com/story/first-minister-humza-yousaf-condemns-racist-graffiti-aimed-at-him-near-dundee-home-13106494

The clown is always on about racism , he practices it himself , re the nursery where he had to drop the charges as it was just rubbish , and constantly saying there are too many white people in Scotland, and on and on . The man is a moron and invites trouble at every cut and turn. A real roaster "family man " as well allegedly. He really needs to be ousted ASAP.
Not that that at all justifies the brain dead morons who did the racist graffiti, though state of the country and the education system etc is all under his control.

Wouldn’t the law, prior to this hate crime legislation, dealt with that graffiti anyway ? It’s not,like it’s a new law brought in to deal with it. Or am I mistaken ?

absolutely, it is purely virtue signalling.

Burgessian said:

Taz said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Have we done this?

Humza Yousaf has said it is "increasingly difficult" to shield his children from racism after he was targeted with Islamophobic graffiti near his Dundee home.

Racist slurs relating to the Scottish first minister's Pakistani heritage were sprayed on the walls and fences of homes in a street in Broughty Ferry, on Monday.

It is near to where the first minister lives with his wife and two children.

The graffiti, which has since been removed, happened on the day the Scottish government's controversial new hate crime laws came into force.

https://news.sky.com/story/first-minister-humza-yousaf-condemns-racist-graffiti-aimed-at-him-near-dundee-home-13106494

The clown is always on about racism , he practices it himself , re the nursery where he had to drop the charges as it was just rubbish , and constantly saying there are too many white people in Scotland, and on and on . The man is a moron and invites trouble at every cut and turn. A real roaster "family man " as well allegedly. He really needs to be ousted ASAP.
Not that that at all justifies the brain dead morons who did the racist graffiti, though state of the country and the education system etc is all under his control.

Wouldn’t the law, prior to this hate crime legislation, dealt with that graffiti anyway ? It’s not,like it’s a new law brought in to deal with it. Or am I mistaken ?

You're not mistaken. And malky is right - and how many times can you say that?

Tut Tut , I am rarely wrong

MightyAlex said:

StillWaters said:

Someone just mentioned a stat to me which is entirely random but quite thought provoking

In 1953 the average house cost 150 ounces of gold

Today the average house would cost you 166 ounces.

In the last 70 years - measured in gold - prices are up only 10%

Perhaps the issue isn’t that house prices are too high - or that supply is constrained - but that fundamentally our productivity has been insufficient to allow for wage increases to keep pace with inflation

And for lower earners whose productivity growth has not been matched with equivalent wage rises?

"in the report “Have productivity and pay decoupled in the UK?” published by the London School of Economics’ Programme on Innovation and Diffusion (POID) shows that between 1981 and 2019, prior to the Covid-19 hit, productivity rose by 87 per cent but median employee wages only rose by 62 per cent: a 25 percentage point “overall decoupling” between productivity growth and median wage growth."
https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2021/k-November-21/Wages-of-typical-UK-employee-have-become-decoupled-from-productivity

Definitely a two-edged sword. Or rather a two-sided coin.

StillWaters said:

Someone just mentioned a stat to me which is entirely random but quite thought provoking

In 1953 the average house cost 150 ounces of gold

Today the average house would cost you 166 ounces.

In the last 70 years - measured in gold - prices are up only 10%

Perhaps the issue isn’t that house prices are too high - or that supply is constrained - but that fundamentally our productivity has been insufficient to allow for wage increases to keep pace with inflation

No. Look at the gold price history. Our problem is that "assets" are shooting up in price and wages aren't. The super-rich get richer; the middle classes are getting slowly poorer; those at the bottom are struggling. We need somehow to remove housing from the asset class.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold

London Mayoral Voting Intention

Sadiq Khan (LAB): 44% (+1)
Susan Hall (CON): 26% (-5)
Zoe Garbett (GRN): 7% (-2)
Rob Blackie (LDM): 7% (-9)
Howard Cox (REF): 5% (+4)
Brian Rose (LRP): 3% (NEW)
Natalie Campbell (IND): 3% (NEW)

Via
@Survation
, On 21-26 March,
Changes w/ July 2023

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1775237656202367473

Perhaps if the Tories chose a more useless candidate, they could make Rishi's current polling look decent.

turbotubbs said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

O/t football is heading for a big problem.

This isn’t about something woke (as if I’d mind that). It’s a serious issue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/68713327

Raphael Varane: Man Utd and France defender says heading has 'damaged his body’

Good evening

There is a lot of evidence the damage heading does to a footballer especially in later life

I was playing a football match in Edinburgh in 1962 when I was elbowed in the back of the neck

Apparently I played for another 10 minutes before collapsing on the field and an ambulance was called. In the ambulance I said to my now wife you are wearing an engagement ring and who are you engaged to, before collapsing back into unconsciousness

I woke about 3.00am in the trauma ward of Edinburgh Royal Infirmary being violently sick and had no idea what had happened

It took over 6 months to recall going out to the match and playing, and even today I cannot recall everything about that evening

I didn't play football again and this is one isolated incident

The time may come when heading is outlawed but the game would not be recognisable

For a lot of the older ex footballers there would have been games with very heavy wet footballs. There was also little or no care for concussion.
Heading brings risks from the ball AND from accidental head to head contact. Can it be limited? (Banned in training? A fixed max number in training?). Ultimately if it’s totally banned it will hugely change the nature of the game. If it’s needs to happen, so be it.

And the laces hurt !!

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

London Mayoral Voting Intention

Sadiq Khan (LAB): 44% (+1)
Susan Hall (CON): 26% (-5)
Zoe Garbett (GRN): 7% (-2)
Rob Blackie (LDM): 7% (-9)
Howard Cox (REF): 5% (+4)
Brian Rose (LRP): 3% (NEW)
Natalie Campbell (IND): 3% (NEW)

Via
@Survation
, On 21-26 March,
Changes w/ July 2023

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1775237656202367473

Perhaps if the Tories chose a more useless candidate, they could make Rishi's current polling look decent.

Natalie Campbell applied to be the Conservative candidate but was unsuccessful and obviously any membership of the party would have ceased. Her manifesto reads quite well and certainly better than anything the Conservative candidate has offered.

Rose stood last time and shrewd punters made a lot of money laying his candidature as the bookies got his odds a bit wrong.

None of this makes much difference - Khan is on course for a clear and convincing win.

Darren Jones MP
@darrenpjones
·
37m
Covid stopped me asking Paula Vennells in person about what she knew.

In a written response she said:

“I raised this question repeatedly…and was given the same answer: it was not possible”

We now know she knew.

It’s the darkest misleading of Parliament I’ve ever seen.

https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1775231984870035531

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

bigjohnowls said:

rcs1000 said:

@bigjohnowls

I look forward you posting - and celebrating - the upcoming record performance of Starmer, when he registers more Labour votes in England than Corbyn achieved in 2017.

Why nothing will change

What POLICY are you looking forward to as a positive change under SKS

Why would I want policies? All governments do is fuck things up. I am looking for masterly inaction.

Do nothing, do it as slowly as possible, and let the country sort itself out. There is an argument for this: people eventually sort problems out without government help.

How are you and I going to sort out the problems in the criminal justice system, where it takes years for cases to be brought to trial?

How are you and I going to close the gap between government revenue and expenditure?

How are you and I going to take the necessary action to equip and modernise the armed forces?

It's a facile argument that doesn't treat seriously many of the real problems the country has. Perhaps it's true that central government has too often meddled in the minutiae - where the DfT specifies in excruciating detail the trains to be bought for particular franchises, for example - and not spent enough time on the bigger picture stuff - like working out how the country will pay its way in two decades time.

But if a government were to do nothing at this time then that would be to watch the country slide towards ruin.

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Israel has lost even more credibility today. It's time for the US to say some kind words to get them to stop.

I'm afraid the reality is that all the talk and meetings etc is all totally meaningless.

We all know the US will continue to support Israel militarily so Israel will continue to do exactly what it wants - irrespective of what anyone says.

So what can be done?

Very little but one small thing strikes me. Organisations like the IOC, FIFA, UEFA are not controlled by the US or its close allies. And they generally operate on a one country one vote basis.

So how about getting organisations like the IOC, FIFA, UEFA to suspend or expel Israel? Israel might not care that much but they won't like being ostracised.

I suspect it would be more effective than anything anyone has done so far.

turbotubbs said:

Flatlander said:

turbotubbs said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

turbotubbs said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kjh said:

Sitting in hospital having just had my trigger finger op (very minor op). The notes they had for me were for someone else with the same name. Still got that sorted and they didn't amputate my leg by accident so all is well. Waiting to be discharged now.

That is gross incompetence of a high order, you should register a complaint with the hospital administration AND with higher authority (perhaps via you MP).

Wondering how many other patients have been affected by suchlike?

For example . . .

Stir Crazy (1980) - Cover Your Jewels Scene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvnWjkHgWEw

As OKC will know very well nothing happens in the NHS without lots of checking (e.g. date of birth). Odds of same name plus DoB are minuscule, so chances of missing legs not high.

Perhaps I misread original comment, but wasn't it the PATIENT who caught the error and NOT hospital staff?

And "not high" chance of waking up with a missing leg . . . or whatever, ain't exactly reassuring.

Before any procedure the correct route is to check name and DOB. The mix up would be caught.

https://www.hssib.org.uk/patient-safety-investigations/wrong-site-surgery-wrong-patient/

226 incidents of wrong site surgery in 2019-20. Some of these were wrong patient.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/03/wrong-woman-given-invasive-procedure-among-nhs-mixups

Out of how many surgeries? Even one is too many, and no system is perfect. But as a patient never get annoyed at seemingly endless checks on who you are.

I remember my mother being told she needed a hysterectomy. Full on planning on the next six-months-to-a-year of 'wtf is going to happen' while laid up in a hospital bed for over a week in tears.

Then a doctor wandering past her bed, picking up her chart, and saying "Oh, this isn't right. That's not for you - you're fine - discharged." and walked back out of the ward.

Massive relief, if also massive annoyance from my mother. But also the nagging feeling of "Well, just who's chart was that for? Did they ever find out?".

It's lucky for them we were poor or they might have got in trouble.

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Their report on the Israeli killing of the aid workers is worth a watch too.

It shows that the vehicles were clearly marked and spread over a long distance of the agreed route. They were targeted individually over a period of time. Indeed the survivors of the first vehicle had time to get to the second one before that too was bombed.

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

I 110% didn't work for them for almost 10 years. And I am also 110% not surprised by even a single aspect of this.

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

@BartholomewRoberts can you please comment on the Israel situation. I am not trying to goad you but I would like to know what you think as always have a lot to say from a perspective different to mine.

I’m not him, but it’s a bit shit right now. It seem to me that the parallels with WW2 are strong. The Nazis tried to destroy the U.K. with bombing, five years later their country was devastated. The German population were prisoners of the Nazis just as ordinary Palestinians are of Hamas. Arguably the price Germans paid for the ending of Nazism was justified. Is the price the Palestinians are paying for the ending of Hamas (if that’s even possible?)

Weren't the rules on war crimes drawn up after WW2 to specifically ban mass bombing of civilian areas?

The government hates Channel 4 because they hold them to account.

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

@BartholomewRoberts can you please comment on the Israel situation. I am not trying to goad you but I would like to know what you think as always have a lot to say from a perspective different to mine.

I’m not him, but it’s a bit shit right now. It seem to me that the parallels with WW2 are strong. The Nazis tried to destroy the U.K. with bombing, five years later their country was devastated. The German population were prisoners of the Nazis just as ordinary Palestinians are of Hamas. Arguably the price Germans paid for the ending of Nazism was justified. Is the price the Palestinians are paying for the ending of Hamas (if that’s even possible?)

Weren't the rules on war crimes drawn up after WW2 to specifically ban mass bombing of civilian areas?

Is that what Israel are doing? I thought more artilliary, and tank based destruction.
I think the concept of war crimes is hard, though. Hamas clearly committed war crimes, or simply just terrorist actions. Israel seems to be getting close to war crimes, but may argue that they are trying not too.

Something needs to change.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

The government hates Channel 4 because they hold them to account.

I can understand why a government would feel under attack from C4. The channel that employs ‘F#ck the Tories’ Jon Snow, for instance. I think there is no doubt that the media in general tends to be more liberal, more middle class than the current conservative brand. The party might wonder why that is.

OldKingCole said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

When does the Inquiry reconvene? Nothing ‘legal’ will happen until it’s reported, surely.

Likely to be an issue for Starmer rather than Sunak, I think.

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

The government hates Channel 4 because they hold them to account.

I can understand why a government would feel under attack from C4. The channel that employs ‘F#ck the Tories’ Jon Snow, for instance. I think there is no doubt that the media in general tends to be more liberal, more middle class than the current conservative brand. The party might wonder why that is.

Jon Snow retired from Channel 4 in Dec 2021.

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

The current DPP really needs to have a couple of very senior people appearing from custody in relation to this now. Its starting to look like they gave it to Police Scotland to investigate.

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

The government hates Channel 4 because they hold them to account.

I can understand why a government would feel under attack from C4. The channel that employs ‘F#ck the Tories’ Jon Snow, for instance. I think there is no doubt that the media in general tends to be more liberal, more middle class than the current conservative brand. The party might wonder why that is.

Jon Snow retired from Channel 4 in Dec 2021.

Because he didn’t agree with their politics? Or just old age?

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

The government hates Channel 4 because they hold them to account.

I can understand why a government would feel under attack from C4. The channel that employs ‘F#ck the Tories’ Jon Snow, for instance. I think there is no doubt that the media in general tends to be more liberal, more middle class than the current conservative brand. The party might wonder why that is.

Jon Snow retired from Channel 4 in Dec 2021.

Has he been replaced by Bran Stark?

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

I will bet £50 that the back door system was used to deliberately frame post masters.

Any takers?

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Yes, because the ITV drama hit home. The Brazilian electrician was incredibly unlucky, but the public cut the police some slack because of the prevailing terrorism at the time. People did get angry about Ian Tomlinson, again someone was unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The post masters also have a superb leader, who I suspect will not just roll over.
You may be right, but I hope not.

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Yes, because the ITV drama hit home. The Brazilian electrician was incredibly unlucky, but the public cut the police some slack because of the prevailing terrorism at the time. People did get angry about Ian Tomlinson, again someone was unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The post masters also have a superb leader, who I suspect will not just roll over.
You may be right, but I hope not.

And people got angry then forgot about it after a day or two because royals/khardassians/big brother was in the news. Getting angry a bit did nothing and if they won't get angry when people die and the police lie through their teeth they aren't going to rise up for some posters getting prosecuted....sadly

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Yes, because the ITV drama hit home. The Brazilian electrician was incredibly unlucky, but the public cut the police some slack because of the prevailing terrorism at the time. People did get angry about Ian Tomlinson, again someone was unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The post masters also have a superb leader, who I suspect will not just roll over.
You may be right, but I hope not.

If Vennells and her cohorts aren’t jailed, why the fuck should the rest of us not break the law whenever it suits us?

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Yes, because the ITV drama hit home. The Brazilian electrician was incredibly unlucky, but the public cut the police some slack because of the prevailing terrorism at the time. People did get angry about Ian Tomlinson, again someone was unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The post masters also have a superb leader, who I suspect will not just roll over.
You may be right, but I hope not.

And people got angry then forgot about it after a day or two because royals/khardassians/big brother was in the news. Getting angry a bit did nothing and if they won't get angry when people die and the police lie through their teeth they aren't going to rise up for some posters getting prosecuted....sadly

Simon Harwood was tried and found not guilty, then dismissed from the police.

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Simon Harwood was prosecuted but acquitted, then sacked from the police. So perhaps that why there was less outrage?

And this was the response to that at the inquest

"This verdict is a damning reflection of the systemic problems inherent in the current investigation system where deaths following police use of force are not treated as potential crimes. This failure has profound consequences on the proper functioning of the justice system in relation to such deaths.

“It is vital that the rule of law is upheld and applies equally to all, including police officers, and that they do not believe that they can act with impunity.

“For too long there has been a pattern of cases where inquest juries have found overwhelming evidence of unlawful and excessive use of force or gross neglect and yet no police officer either at an individual or senior management level has been held responsible.”

source https://www.inquest.org.uk/ian-tomlinson-inquest-response-to-officer-acquittal

Fairliered said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Yes, because the ITV drama hit home. The Brazilian electrician was incredibly unlucky, but the public cut the police some slack because of the prevailing terrorism at the time. People did get angry about Ian Tomlinson, again someone was unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The post masters also have a superb leader, who I suspect will not just roll over.
You may be right, but I hope not.

If Vennells and her cohorts aren’t jailed, why the fuck should the rest of us not break the law whenever it suits us?

You may as well as it is unlikely the police will bother to investigate if its not a twitter crime

Fairliered said:

turbotubbs said:

Fairliered said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Yes, because the ITV drama hit home. The Brazilian electrician was incredibly unlucky, but the public cut the police some slack because of the prevailing terrorism at the time. People did get angry about Ian Tomlinson, again someone was unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The post masters also have a superb leader, who I suspect will not just roll over.
You may be right, but I hope not.

If Vennells and her cohorts aren’t jailed, why the fuck should the rest of us not break the law whenever it suits us?

Because you just know that YOU will be jailed!
Plus do the right thing, like all honest upright people do.

If I hadn’t been honest and upright all my life, maybe I would now be among the NU10K.

Does seem to be an entry requirement if you want to be part of the scum rising to the top

Penalty!
Bloody hell. DCL scores!

Fairliered said:

turbotubbs said:

Fairliered said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

I am sure there is some truth in this, but I think the money part is overplayed. Arguably some things are wrong - use of expensiveness to suppress stuff, for instance. Making it too costly to go after wrongdoing.
We will see. Someone has lied and lied and lied. With real world consequence.

I thought people would be outraged about the killing of an innocent of the killing of an innocent brazilian electrician....
Result Dick got a promotion the public did nothing

I thought people would be outraged over the killing of a newspaper vendor after the police were shown to be lying through their teeth (Tomlinson)

Result Kier said no charges to be brought the british public did nothing.

You really believe they are going to get incensed about some sub postmasters?

Yes, because the ITV drama hit home. The Brazilian electrician was incredibly unlucky, but the public cut the police some slack because of the prevailing terrorism at the time. People did get angry about Ian Tomlinson, again someone was unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The post masters also have a superb leader, who I suspect will not just roll over.
You may be right, but I hope not.

If Vennells and her cohorts aren’t jailed, why the fuck should the rest of us not break the law whenever it suits us?

Because you just know that YOU will be jailed!
Plus do the right thing, like all honest upright people do.

If I hadn’t been honest and upright all my life, maybe I would now be among the NU10K.

Shrewd, compassionate, sensible and scrupulously honest, she has overcome all these handicaps to ascend to the nation’s highest office.

Spot the film reference!

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Yes we have all out elections too. That includes council seats in new wards in areas that were up in bad years locally for the Tories, ie 2023 and 2022 as well as the better year of 2021.

That combined with fewer seats being up than last year and a reasonable performance by Susan Hall given current polls mean the local elections, although bad, won't be bad enough for Sunak to be removed by Tory MPs and he will survive until the general election as leader and PM

I see the Conservatives are desperately trying to downplay expectations on the May elections.

We can do better than that - what's a "reasonable performance" by Susan Hall, the 35% achieved by Shaun Bailey, 30%?, 25%?

As for the local and PCC contests, we can take a view as well. As for the former, how about losing Dudley to Labour and Dorset to the LDs? What about the eight Conservative held District Councils with all up elections?

They would be Basildon, Epping Forest, Fareham, Gloucester, Harlow, Havant, Nuneaton & Bedworth and Redditch? Would losing control of half of those represent a bad night? What about losing control of all of them?

The Conservatives currently have 30 of the 39 PCCs in England and Wales having won the 2021 elections by 14.5 points. What would be a bad night in your view - losing ten, losing twenty?

The London Assembly elections have produced fairly stables results for the Conservatives: 9, 9, 11, 9, 8, 9. I think that's one benchmark. Do they go below 8 and, if so, how much lower?

Pagan2 said:

bondegezou said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

viewcode said:

Scott_xP said:

@SkyNews

BREAKING: JK Rowling's comments about new hate crime laws "are not assessed to be criminal", police have said, as they confirmed no further action would be taken

Wasn't this already known up front? Specifically, that the exposition of gender critical thought was not within the remit of the thing.

Yes. There was never any possibility of her comments being deemed to be potentially criminal.

They would never fight her in court, they will save it for their secret register where the plebs don't even know they have been marked down for some fkucwitted moron's opinion. Plod will take easy option. It is all virtue signalling by the clowns running the SNP and ruining the country, a bigger bunch of rubbish you would struggle to find.

Jo Rowling knows they’ll never go after her, as she has basically unlimited financial resources and a worldwide media profile.

What I think she’s doing, is to get police and prosecutors to quickly define where they are drawing the line, such that others can use the same defences in future. She’ll probably speak out, and possibly even dip into her pocket for a few lawyers, if she sees that initial standard being eroded over time.

Either that of the hype over the law was substantially bunkum all along, and never intended to inhibit opinions like hers.

The comments from many in the Scottish Government on the matter appear somewhat different. I shall defer to the excellent Mrs @Cyclefree and yesterday’s header on the subject.

It’s also worth noting that this discussion has crossed the Pond - here’s an epic five-hour podcast with Joe Rogan and four comedian friends last week, that opened with discussions about this new law. https://youtube.com/watch?v=cV71YMAwIXY
It’s fair to say that not many American comics will turn up in Edinburgh this year, if they feel that their speech might be policed by the actual Scottish police. That’s a direct hit to the Scottish economy, for as long as it takes for the actual implications of this law to become known by case law and appellate courts.

Comedians who want to appear on Rogan's show are not representative of all US comedians. Rogan has shared COVID-19 conspiracy theories (and HIV conspiracy theories). He's shared anti-vax views. He's shared antisemitic tropes (e.g. saying the "idea that Jewish people are not into money is ridiculous"). He's a polarising guy with some views that are, at best, eccentric, or at worst dangerous.

In other words, he's a loon. Why on earth are you listening to him? He spreads nonsense about Ukraine too, and supports Trump's position on it.

Just because someone is a loon, and a conspiracist theorist( and I agree Rogan is) does not however mean he is automatically wrong about everything. Cf Griffin ( a total racist and fascist) but he was correct about the grooming gangs.

Dismissing what people say because they also say things that we violently disgree with or think are looney is easy. I am sure people do it with me because I often say things that make people uncomfortable. However does not mean that on somethings maybe they have a point.

To give an example of this and @kinabalu this is not intended to be offensive, I often violently disagree with his views and find some of them ludicrous, as I am sure he does mine. However I do read what he has written usually and sometimes agree he has a point. I judge what is said not the person saying it being the point

Malmesbury said:

Pagan2 said:

DavidL said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Difficult to believe the execs at Post Office at the time could be in any more shit, but explosive new evidence from Ch4 news tonight:


Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
More secret tapes prove Post Office boss briefed on system backdoor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1775222755916447873

Seriously, if no one does significant time for this, then all faith in Justice in this country will be lost.

You assume most people currently have faith in our justice system. I don't speak for anyone but me but I lost all faith a couple of decades ago when it became obvious there is a rule for the rich/famous and one for the plebs

The current DPP really needs to have a couple of very senior people appearing from custody in relation to this now. Its starting to look like they gave it to Police Scotland to investigate.

Prediction no one senior will get prosecuted, they may find a junior or two to scapegoat

Remember - the *judge* in the Kids Company case said that it would be unfair to hold the legally liable trustees legally liable for their voluntarily assumed legal liabilities.

The CPS said, when Blair & Co. got caught selling peerages, that it would be unfair to prosecute.

Lessons Will Be Learned*

*will not include lessons. Will not include learning. Will not include Will. Will not include “Be”. Will not include bees.

I don't think that is true.

Kds Company was a CIO (that is a Charitable Incorporated Organisation).so the Trustees were effectively non-executive directors and covered by limited liability in the same way as other company's.

The court case was over whether the Trustees were reckless with their supervision of the finances and were found not to be. There were no allegations of criminality, and at worst they could be barred from other directorships for a time.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

bigjohnowls said:

rcs1000 said:

@bigjohnowls

I look forward you posting - and celebrating - the upcoming record performance of Starmer, when he registers more Labour votes in England than Corbyn achieved in 2017.

Why nothing will change

What POLICY are you looking forward to as a positive change under SKS

Why would I want policies? All governments do is fuck things up. I am looking for masterly inaction.

Do nothing, do it as slowly as possible, and let the country sort itself out. There is an argument for this: people eventually sort problems out without government help.

That was THE basic politico-governmental principle of Stanley Baldwin during is days as CUP Leader and UK Prime Minister. He believed - and said as much - that most so-called crises will eventually take care of themselves . . . PROVIDED their is sufficient degree of delay and inaction.

Helped make him quite popular during his time in front-line politics.

HOWEVER, his policy of masterly inactivity proved LESS effective, and eventually WAY less popular, when applied to military aircraft production.

Despite (or because?) of his assurance (?) that, "I think it is well also for the man in the street to realise that there is no power on earth that can protect him from being bombed. Whatever people may tell him, the bomber will always get through." (source SB's wiki-bio)

Actually, rearmament started in 1932 and by about 1935 was hitting limits on what to spend money on.

This is because military production capability isn’t just matter of diverting GDP. U.K. rearmament was predicated on building factories first, weapons later.

As it was, we ended up buying, for example, lots of Fairey Battles. Which were known to be pretty useless - the idea was that they could be built by existing factories, training the workers. Because they were single engined, they were cheap - allowing rapid forming of squadrons. And their crews - pilot, navigator and gunner - would form the nucleus of the crews for the actual bombers planned for the War - the B1/39 designs, for example. Which made Lancasters look small and underarmed.

Unfortunately, Hitler started the war much earlier than he had planned. The original schedule was for mid 1942.

8 games to go.
We've got Burnley, Brentford, Forest and Sheffield United to play at home.
And Luton away.
So all five of the rest of the bottom six.
We should stay up from here.