politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs
The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication.
Comments
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Taxi for Mr Carmichael !0
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Why wasn't this intended for publication?
How did it "slip out"?
Should I include it in ELBOW?0 -
As posted on previous thread:
Yes the Opinium poll numbers are there:
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/op5032_opinium_pr_voting_reasons_-_tables_v.pdf
Key change: CON+5, LD-4
Key thing: LD beyond the electoral abyss on a new record low of 5% (electoral calculus LD 7 seats).
Tory dilemma: If it's not an outlier then Tories ahead but LD and Clegg finished for good, if it's an outlier then Tories not in lead but LD and Clegg still can still hope.
As Farage would say : "Baffling"0 -
Must be an outlier. Even if it were revealed that Nick Clegg once worked as Jimmy Savile's chauffeur you wouldn't get that sort of fall.0
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The poll that “slipped out”
That’s your cue TSE…! ; )
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Not too shabby considering Opinium often have the Tories languishing in the 20's.
To be honest though I think the EdM effect, which may be filtering through, will be more than cancelled out by the Reckless win, so we will be back where we were.
I'm not sure I'd expect much significant to change until late January into February, when as you will all know I think the Tory surge will begin.0 -
I do not think the LibDems are 'finished for good.' I'm careful about wagers on here but do you want a bet about this? If so, how do we quantify it?Speedy said:
LD and Clegg finished for good"0 -
Not intended for publication?Sunil_Prasannan said:Why wasn't this intended for publication?
How did it "slip out"?
Should I include it in ELBOW?
Does that mean publish if we like the results and hide if we don't?0 -
I know, but reasonably a national party can't escape UNS if it's at 5% or less.corporeal said:0 -
Assume Lib Dems hold Westmorland, Orkney/Shetland & Ross Skye...Speedy said:
If it's not an outlier then the LD won't need a taxi, just 1% lower (within margin of error) at 4% they get 0 (I repeat ZERO) seats.Pulpstar said:Taxi for Mr Carmichael !
SNP 7 gains, Labour gain 18 or so ? Rest to the Tories almost by default ?
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Will Yougov tonight see a hat trick of Tory leads consecutively.... it's almost like this is happening more often than pre-conference?0
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Uniform national swing simply does not work mathematically when a party drops by as much as the Opinium poll suggests that the Lib Dems have dropped (and this is bad news for the Lib Dems). For an explanation by reference to Scotland, see here:Speedy said:
I know, but reasonably a national party can't escape UNS if it's at 5% or less.corporeal said:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html0 -
I agree, the LD would reasonably hold those 3 seats, the rest will mostly go to the party that was second last time or to the SNP.Pulpstar said:
Assume Lib Dems hold Westmorland, Orkney/Shetland & Ross Skye...Speedy said:
If it's not an outlier then the LD won't need a taxi, just 1% lower (within margin of error) at 4% they get 0 (I repeat ZERO) seats.Pulpstar said:Taxi for Mr Carmichael !
SNP 7 gains, Labour gain 18 or so ? Rest to the Tories almost by default ?
Charles Kennedy for next LD leader is not unreasonable if there are only a handful of LD MP's left.0 -
The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.0
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FPT and in response to someone who suggested a 1% Land Value Tax on all property with no exemptions:-
Just to get away from the crazy London property market, in this relatively poor part of Cumbria (which I know well - having family there) average property prices are: - Millom, with an overall average price of £90,514 was cheaper than nearby Askam-In-Furness (£131,656), Kirkby-In-Furness (£225,900) and Dalton-In-Furness (£114,302).
The area is served by a Labour MP Jamie Reed.
Average salaries are ca. £15,258 - £36,248.
I'm sure having to pay - in addition to council tax - 1% of the value of their homes - somewhere between an extra £900 - £1143 p.a. - will go down well.0 -
So is this the Observer canning polls which don't tell them what they want, or did someone else pay for it?0
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Earlier today Mike posted a thread based on this poll, about Labour voters' opinions. Maybe this is what they intended to publish, but someone uploaded the full tables by mistake - which would include full VI as you would need to politically weight that sort of poll.0
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I'm not sure I believe that, to be honest. The Lib Dem support almost halving seems incredible.0
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Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM0 -
So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?0
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Like all extreme movements in polling you've got to treat the first survey as an outlier until the trend is supported - remember the YouGov 2% YES lead survey?kle4 said:The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.
A factor with Opinium is that it is the only online firm that doesn't have any political weighting - either by party ID or past vote and is thus liable to much bigger fluctuations.
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Is this the first time since the late 80s/early 90s that the Lib Dems have gone to 5% or lower?0
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It's the reverse bandwagon effect alright.kle4 said:The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.
I said a long time ago that the LD did the same mistake in propping up the Tories as the Liberals in propping up Labour in 1923, it took them 40 years to show a sign of life and I expect it will take as long again for the LD to recover.0 -
But it's closer to other pollsters which are often reporting 7% and occasionally as low as 6. Maybe a try-out of new methodology?Morris_Dancer said:I'm not sure I believe that, to be honest. The Lib Dem support almost halving seems incredible.
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Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM0 -
Oh dear - stop embarrassing yourself. If I was a Labour supporter today I'd be tearing my hair out that my leader:bigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM
1. Got rogered by a c-list celebrity.
2. Got his party to spend the day attacking said celebrity!
Wtf.0 -
Including the Ashcroft poll where the fieldwork was 31 Oct - 2 Nov. Plus a tied result.RodCrosby said:So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?
There were six in October as well, plus eight ties. But that's the whole-month figure. We are only just over half way through November.
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They can hardly do much worse than UNS would imply at these levels. Given that there are seats they will win whatever their overall national vote share I would have thought they will outperform UNS in such circumstances.antifrank said:0 -
How many with LAB ahead?RodCrosby said:So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?
Do any of the Tories in the lead polls give any other viable PM other than Ed is Crap?
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I was the first person to notice this poll on their website.SimonStClare said:The poll that “slipped out”
That’s your cue TSE…! ; )
So I took full advantage of this slipping out.
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Of course. If only for entertainment value....Sunil_Prasannan said:Why wasn't this intended for publication?
How did it "slip out"?
Should I include it in ELBOW?
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Mr. Felix, many a chap would enjoy being rogered by Myleene Klass.0
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It could be an oulier, in fact I believe it's an oulier, but we can wait till the next Opinium poll is due on Saturday.Morris_Dancer said:I'm not sure I believe that, to be honest. The Lib Dem support almost halving seems incredible.
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How about an aggregate chart of tory leads in any poll - month on month since 2010 GE?JohnLilburne said:
Including the Ashcroft poll where the fieldwork was 31 Oct - 2 Nov. Plus a tied result.RodCrosby said:So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?
There were six in October as well, plus eight ties. But that's the whole-month figure. We are only just over half way through November.
Now that would be interesting no?0 -
But if they're dropping by 18% nationally, they don't even start off with 18% support from 2010 in a lot of seats -- therefore, logically, there will have to be bigger falls in seats with higher support to make up for it.Neil said:
They can hardly do much worse than UNS would imply at these levels. Given that there are seats they will win whatever their overall national vote share I would have thought they will outperform UNS in such circumstances.antifrank said:
In the Scottish election in 2011, the Lib Dems actually fell MORE in seats they held than the national average fall.0 -
Is it pantomime season already?nigel4england said:
Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM
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Let's look at the impact propping up Fianna Fail in government had on smaller coalition parties in recent times:Speedy said:
I said a long time ago that the LD did the same mistake in propping up the Tories as the Liberals in propping up Labour in 1923, it took them 40 years to show a sign of life and I expect it will take as long again for the LD to recover.
The PDs: retained some seats but actually disbanded as a party after GE.
The Greens: managed not to abolish themselves as a party but lost all their seats.
Irish Labour are about to be pounded in the 2016 GE.
Look what happened to the FDP in Germany.
Being junior coalition partner is a tough job but someone has to do it.
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Opinium's next Observer poll is scheduled this Sunday, correct?0
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I think Labour's new immigration policy opens up some opportunities for the lib dems.0
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So in the last few days Labour's main focus of attack has been sports direct and Myleene Klass.
Must be some weird new celebrity retail party standing in the next election that only Labour know about.0 -
TSE slipped one out.
Sounds plausible.0 -
Direction of travel, Mr Owls. That the average Labour lead is now just over 1% must be causing a certain amount of squeaky bum time at Milliband Towers. "Oh look, a squirrel, she's called Myleene".bigjohnowls said:
How many with LAB ahead?RodCrosby said:So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?
Do any of the Tories in the lead polls give any other viable PM other than Ed is Crap?
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But if they poll 4% then UNS would imply 0 seats - even they cant do worse than 0 seats.Danny565 said:
But if they're dropping by 18% nationally, they don't even start off with 18% support from 2010 in a lot of seats -- therefore, logically, there will have to be bigger falls in seats with higher support to make up for it.Neil said:
They can hardly do much worse than UNS would imply at these levels. Given that there are seats they will win whatever their overall national vote share I would have thought they will outperform UNS in such circumstances.antifrank said:
In the Scottish election in 2011, the Lib Dems actually fell MORE in seats they held than the national average fall.
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http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_17_11-2014_BPC.pdf
Populus internals for Lib Dems:
87 upweighted to 111
57% 10/10 to vote.
Unweighted base 376 -> 387 Lib Dem 2010 voters.
Lib Dem identifiers upweighted from 149 -> 205.
It is precisely the same sort of adjustments which lead Populus to a bigger "big two" than most of the other pollsters.
Yet the Lab-Con bias (Compared to other pollsters) was noted because their score is up on most other pollsters. Yet its there for the Lib Dems too (Deflated UKIP score) and yet they were only on 7% in that poll.
Incredible.
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Felix, many a chap would enjoy being rogered by Myleene Klass.
Not our Ed apparently. 0 -
Many politicians would enjoy losing their deposits...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Felix, many a chap would enjoy being rogered by Myleene Klass.
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Half the LibDem voters left for pastures new when they went into the Coalition. Primarily those on the left, feeling bitterly betrayed.
Those on the right stayed. But if staying in 2015 means letting Ed Miliband into Downing Street... You can see why those primarily on the right of the LibDems might wonder why they are bothering. This poll just coincided with the moment they collectively thought "bugger this for a game of soldiers..."
Or its an outlier.0 -
Also, any takers on which seat will see the biggest Lib Dem fall of all?
I am sticking with a fall of up to 30% in Sheffield Central.0 -
I'll grant you all that, this particular movement is very extreme, but there does seem to have been a downward trend this year, when I had always assumed they would start to pick up a little by now. Even if the trend is not as marked as in this poll, and the final result is far better (I used to think mid to high teens was probable, now I think low teens will be a good result), and even considering most people do not know about or note such polling as wonks like us, without something to offset the overall impression that the LDs are screwed, they will surely lose at least some votes they might otherwise have kept hold of. It's like how UKIP's good polling has a much better chance of being retained to some degree now they have won a by-election (or two), showing it is no waste, not necessarily I would have thought.MikeSmithson said:
Like all extreme movements in polling you've got to treat the first survey as an outlier until the trend is supported - remember the YouGov 2% YES lead survey?kle4 said:The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.
A factor with Opinium is that it is the only online firm that doesn't have any political weighting - either by party ID or past vote and is thus liable to much bigger fluctuations.0 -
Indeed. Worst Lib Dem score by any pollster in very nearly a quarter of a century.Speedy said:
Last time it was in the summer of 1990.Danny565 said:Is this the first time since the late 80s/early 90s that the Lib Dems have gone to 5% or lower?
Their record low was 3% in November 1989.
Like Mike, I'd take the LD score as a bit of an outlier, particularly as they had seemed to have been picking up a touch in the last few weeks. Even so, the Con/Lab figures are in line with the consensus and the LDs have hit 6% fairly often over the last few months so it's not too much of a surprise, simply on the basis of statistical fluctuations, that they were going to notch a 5 sooner or later if they kept polling around that level.0 -
TSE's behind youHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is it pantomime season already?nigel4england said:
Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM 0 -
Deleted
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Just keep clutching on to Nurse Baxter.bigjohnowls said:
How many with LAB ahead?RodCrosby said:So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?
Do any of the Tories in the lead polls give any other viable PM other than Ed is Crap?0 -
It was a microcosm of Labour’s wider problem when talking about the economy. Few are listening to Labour’s plans on housing, the NHS or jobs because the party hasn’t engaged in the argument on spending, mapping out what will be cut and what will be funded. The party has neither made the case for unalloyed greater spending as the left want, nor how it can be trusted to control spending as party centrists’ desire. As a result, the brighter future that a Labour government could bring remains resolutely ignored.
Ed Miliband is meant to be fighting back, redefining himself and Labour’s offer to voters. Unfortunately, last night, it was a case of plus ça change.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/11/18/what-ed-miliband-should-have-said-to-myleene-klass/#.VGuFYUajuSo.twitter
Labour List can't resist the chance to remind voters that Labour's leader is a loser who can't win an argument.0 -
Except FPTP doesn't work deterministically like that. It's possible to win a seat with around 33% in a single seat (even if it's the only one you stand in, see Greens, Hermon, the KHHC guy, etc), or around 0.05% of the national vote.Speedy said:
If it's not an outlier then the LD won't need a taxi, just 1% lower (within margin of error) at 4% they get 0 (I repeat ZERO) seats.Pulpstar said:Taxi for Mr Carmichael !
That's even better than under PR, where even in its most perfect incarnation you'd probably need at least 0.077%...
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It is when the Leader of the Opposition and supposed PM in seven months time gets slaughtered by Myleene KlassHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is it pantomime season already?nigel4england said:
Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM0 -
It would go down well, because the land value tax would result in a drastic reduction or even abolition of Council Tax, which disproportionally hits the people you refer to while multi millionaires pay a few hundred more than they do in council tax for their band H pads in Westminster or Wandsworth. As do the local gentry in their band H country mansions.Cyclefree said:
Just to get away from the crazy London property market, in this relatively poor part of Cumbria (which I know well - having family there) average property prices are: - Millom, with an overall average price of £90,514 was cheaper than nearby Askam-In-Furness (£131,656), Kirkby-In-Furness (£225,900) and Dalton-In-Furness (£114,302).Paul_Mid_Beds said:
She did win the argument, she shoudn't have; an able Labour leader would have slaughtered her and given no quarter, but the fact is that on the night she did win the argument. That is the problem Labour have with Iain Duncan Miliband.bigjohnowls said:myleene really was stupid last night comparing water to a £2m pad as were the people tweeting she won the argument.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/millionaire-myleene-klass-blasted-being-4646847
WTF didn't Ed prepare rebuttals for the interview, did it not occur to him that a millionaire former pop starette living in an expensive house might have negative views on the mansion tax?, a tax that the rest of us with houses worth about £250k actually support and if anything think is too timid; as it is high time removal of the free ride such people have had since the Tories abolished domestic rates.
What we actually need is a land value tax of 1% of the value of any land owned with no exemptions (other than perhaps certain charities like the national trust). That would break up the big estates, tax the multinationals heavily and stop pensioners bed blocking family houses.
The area is served by a Labour MP Jamie Reed.
Average salaries are ca. £15,258 - £36,248.
I'm sure having to pay - in addition to council tax - 1% of the value of their homes - somewhere between an extra £900 - £1143 p.a. - will go down well.
The big juicy target in taxation is not income, its very valuable immovable assets, held by a proportionally very small portion of the electorate.
And if that causes house prices to collapse then that is the best news the country has had in years because young people will be able to afford somewhere to live again.0 -
The Asquith-LG and National Coalition splits did far more damage to the Liberals than propping up Labour in 1924 (not 1923) did.Speedy said:
It's the reverse bandwagon effect alright.kle4 said:The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.
I said a long time ago that the LD did the same mistake in propping up the Tories as the Liberals in propping up Labour in 1923, it took them 40 years to show a sign of life and I expect it will take as long again for the LD to recover.0 -
Reposted FPT - to demonstrate just how much assumptions can affect the seat score for the Lib Dems at polling on this level, using pure UNS:
Well, UNS is only an indication at the best of times, but if you construct a UNS spreadsheet and put a hard floor on the vote score (which you really need to do with the Lib Dems at the moment), then a lot is down to assumption, of course.antifrank said:If the Lib Dems really did tally 5% at the general election, I expect that they would take Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Norfolk North and Ross, Skye & Lochaber. They would be lucky to take another seat.
- Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency.
- Assume that vote scores under 5% are harder to compress (give a 1.5% boost to any score that would be under 5% with a hard stop at 1.5%)
- Assume no incumbency boost
- Separate out Scotland (Giving them 3.5% in Scotland to reflect a further hit; UKIP only 10% in Scotland rather than 20%)
- Give Tories 17% in Scotland (similar to last time)
- Have Labour and SNP level on 31% in Scotland
- Use Con 34, Lab 33, LD 5, UKIP 20, Green 5 for GB
... You get (on straight UNS) 9 LD seats (7 in England, 1 in Scotland, 1 in Wales)
(For reference, you end up with Lab 323, Con 277, SNP 17, LD 9, Plaid 3, Green 2, UKIP 1)
Of course, you'll have some incumbency boost (which is what UKIP are relying on in Clacton and (they hope) Rochester). If you shove in a 2% incumbency boost for the Big Two parties (which seems consistent with pervious elections; could be questionable this time) and a 6% incumbency boost for Lib Dems (looks reasonably consistent with the Ashcroft figure) and adjust the Clacton seat by hand - otherwise it's utterly unwinnable for UKIP; on those figures, it's gonna be held by them.
...
You get 16 LD seats on 5% of the vote, with it never going negative or even below 1.5% in any seat.
(Lab 312, Con 280, SNP 17, LD 16, Plaid 3, UKIP 2, Green 2.
All for whatever it's worth. That's just what UNS produces under those assumptions (which don't look too implausible). It is, as with any modelling, highly artificial, but it does show that even on very low figures, the Lib Dems can get a few seats.0 -
They seem to be trying.Neil said:
But if they poll 4% then UNS would imply 0 seats - even they cant do worse than 0 seats.Danny565 said:
But if they're dropping by 18% nationally, they don't even start off with 18% support from 2010 in a lot of seats -- therefore, logically, there will have to be bigger falls in seats with higher support to make up for it.Neil said:
They can hardly do much worse than UNS would imply at these levels. Given that there are seats they will win whatever their overall national vote share I would have thought they will outperform UNS in such circumstances.antifrank said:
In the Scottish election in 2011, the Lib Dems actually fell MORE in seats they held than the national average fall.0 -
You would think so wouldn't you.JohnLilburne said:
Direction of travel, Mr Owls. That the average Labour lead is now just over 1% must be causing a certain amount of squeaky bum time at Milliband Towers. "Oh look, a squirrel, she's called Myleene".bigjohnowls said:
How many with LAB ahead?RodCrosby said:So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?
Do any of the Tories in the lead polls give any other viable PM other than Ed is Crap?
Lab need a few more Myleenes squealing about their Lot and Ed needs more Tory turmoil post Rochester.
I think a LAB Majority is a very unlikely outcome but still see the most likely scenario being LAB/SNP or LAB/LD .
How do you see GE2015 turning out.0 -
On an issue that should have been an open goal for him.nigel4england said:
It is when the Leader of the Opposition and supposed PM in seven months time gets slaughtered by Myleene KlassHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is it pantomime season already?nigel4england said:
Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM0 -
It will still be interesting to see if the Lib Dems fall by enough to allow the Greens to displace them as main challengers in future GEs. The Greens are a strong second in local elections there but split voting is very common. There are not too many areas where I could envisage Greens challenging for Westminster in the next 10 years but this is one if things fall in their favour.Pulpstar said:
Yep that should be the one, Labour will barely need to post a leaflet to win there.Danny565 said:Also, any takers on which seat will see the biggest Lib Dem fall of all?
I am sticking with a fall of up to 30% in Sheffield Central.
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Libdems pretty static for the last 10 weeks:david_herdson said:
Indeed. Worst Lib Dem score by any pollster in very nearly a quarter of a century.Speedy said:
Last time it was in the summer of 1990.Danny565 said:Is this the first time since the late 80s/early 90s that the Lib Dems have gone to 5% or lower?
Their record low was 3% in November 1989.
Like Mike, I'd take the LD score as a bit of an outlier, particularly as they had seemed to have been picking up a touch in the last few weeks. Even so, the Con/Lab figures are in line with the consensus and the LDs have hit 6% fairly often over the last few months so it's not too much of a surprise, simply on the basis of statistical fluctuations, that they were going to notch a 5 sooner or later if they kept polling around that level.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5340138213049671680 -
Worse than 0 seats - winning 1 seat but it's Mike Hancock.Pong said:
They seem to be trying.Neil said:
But if they poll 4% then UNS would imply 0 seats - even they cant do worse than 0 seats.Danny565 said:
But if they're dropping by 18% nationally, they don't even start off with 18% support from 2010 in a lot of seats -- therefore, logically, there will have to be bigger falls in seats with higher support to make up for it.Neil said:
They can hardly do much worse than UNS would imply at these levels. Given that there are seats they will win whatever their overall national vote share I would have thought they will outperform UNS in such circumstances.antifrank said:
In the Scottish election in 2011, the Lib Dems actually fell MORE in seats they held than the national average fall.
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Did you see it?nigel4england said:
It is when the Leader of the Opposition and supposed PM in seven months time gets slaughtered by Myleene KlassHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is it pantomime season already?nigel4england said:
Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM
Myleene made a fool of herself comparing a glass of water with a mansion and claiming you can barely get a garage for £2m.
It was win win win for Ed
Have you not seen the polling on the mansion tax?
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Mr. Cooke, there's something lurking in your inbox.0
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LOLNeil said:
Worse than 0 seats - winning 1 seat but it's Mike Hancock.Pong said:
They seem to be trying.Neil said:
But if they poll 4% then UNS would imply 0 seats - even they cant do worse than 0 seats.Danny565 said:
But if they're dropping by 18% nationally, they don't even start off with 18% support from 2010 in a lot of seats -- therefore, logically, there will have to be bigger falls in seats with higher support to make up for it.Neil said:
They can hardly do much worse than UNS would imply at these levels. Given that there are seats they will win whatever their overall national vote share I would have thought they will outperform UNS in such circumstances.antifrank said:
In the Scottish election in 2011, the Lib Dems actually fell MORE in seats they held than the national average fall.0 -
FPT..The Mansion tax will soon be applied to a 3 bed inner city terrace..anyone who thinks it wont be is a fool...0
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The worst part for the Lib Dems is they've become irrelevant. In many ways, that's worse than the outright loathing people had for them in 2010/11 -- people have now just stopped caring about them completely. I read a piece about political focus groups a while back, apparently people liken Clegg to a guest at a house party who just won't bloody leave even after you keep dropping hints.0
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Mr. Owls, reality and reporting are often far apart.
I'd dispute it as win-win, though. Best case scenario is zero damage for Miliband. He's not going to take any support from the Klass Party, is he?0 -
It would go down well, because the land value tax would result in a drastic reduction or even abolition of Council Tax, which disproportionally hits the people you refer to while multi millionaires pay a few hundred more than they do in council tax for their band H pads in Westminster or Wandsworth. As do the local gentry in their band H country mansions.Cyclefree said:FPT and in response to someone who suggested a 1% Land Value Tax on all property with no exemptions:-
Just to get away from the crazy London property market, in this relatively poor part of Cumbria (which I know well - having family there) average property prices are: - Millom, with an overall average price of £90,514 was cheaper than nearby Askam-In-Furness (£131,656), Kirkby-In-Furness (£225,900) and Dalton-In-Furness (£114,302).
The area is served by a Labour MP Jamie Reed.
Average salaries are ca. £15,258 - £36,248.
I'm sure having to pay - in addition to council tax - 1% of the value of their homes - somewhere between an extra £900 - £1143 p.a. - will go down well.
The big juicy target in taxation is not income, its very valuable immovable assets, held by a proportionally very small portion of the electorate.
And if that causes house prices to collapse then that is the best news the country has had in years because young people will be able to afford somewhere to live again.
PS 1% of land value is not 1% of home value. Land value of a £100k house up there is about £25k. Therefore they pay £250 a year as opposed to £1500 a year now in council tax.
Meanwhile the local squire with an estate worth £5 million, £4.5 million of which is the value of the land who currently pays £2k for band H council tax will pay £50,000 per year.0 -
Sorry I thought it was 1923 not 1924, but anyway when they propped a Labour government most of the Liberal support melted away to the Tories out of fear of Labour in power and then what remained melted away to Labour in order to get rid of the Tories.david_herdson said:
The Asquith-LG and National Coalition splits did far more damage to the Liberals than propping up Labour in 1924 (not 1923) did.Speedy said:
It's the reverse bandwagon effect alright.kle4 said:The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.
I said a long time ago that the LD did the same mistake in propping up the Tories as the Liberals in propping up Labour in 1923, it took them 40 years to show a sign of life and I expect it will take as long again for the LD to recover.
The same think has happened again with most of the LD support melting away out of fear and disagreement of propping a Tory government and now the prospect of the remains melting to the Tories in a last ditch effort to keep Labour out.0 -
I haven't but no matter its flaws I cannot see how a majority of people would not say they approve of it off the name alone. Entertainment can be had at Ed seemingly being chastised by a celebrity for it, but there is almost literally nothing that could happen that could make Ed's support for the Mansion Tax not play well with his supporters an the public at large. Methinks some Tories are getting a bit excited.bigjohnowls said:nigel4england said:
It is when the Leader of the Opposition and supposed PM in seven months time gets slaughtered by Myleene KlassHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is it pantomime season already?nigel4england said:
Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM
Have you not seen the polling on the mansion tax?
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Not if it is in the form of bands I,J,K,L,M,N,O,P,Q,R,S etc. of the Council tax. That would likely involve people in bands A-G paying less council tax.richardDodd said:FPT..The Mansion tax will soon be applied to a 3 bed inner city terrace..anyone who thinks it wont be is a fool...
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If nothing happens between now and then, I certainly see the Tories as the largest party in terms of votes, but may not manage most seats. The direction of travel is there, but very slow. 5 months ago the Lab lead was about 4%, at the same rate the Tories could be 3% ahead by election day. Although the election campaign will shake things up and if we get a few more polls with the Tories ahead, it could be the lead is already <1% we just don't know it yet.bigjohnowls said:
You would think so wouldn't you.JohnLilburne said:
Direction of travel, Mr Owls. That the average Labour lead is now just over 1% must be causing a certain amount of squeaky bum time at Milliband Towers. "Oh look, a squirrel, she's called Myleene".bigjohnowls said:
How many with LAB ahead?RodCrosby said:So six polls with the Tories ahead, so far this month?
Do any of the Tories in the lead polls give any other viable PM other than Ed is Crap?
Lab need a few more Myleenes squealing about their Lot and Ed needs more Tory turmoil post Rochester.
I think a LAB Majority is a very unlikely outcome but still see the most likely scenario being LAB/SNP or LAB/LD .
How do you see GE2015 turning out.
Lab/SNP would be problematic unless the SNP give up their policy of not voting on England-only matters; the government could have no mandate on the English NHS or education. If the Tories and Labour are on about 36/33 there is no real mandate for either party: Labour would have increased its vote a bit but the Tories kept most of theirs from GE2010. In contrast, although the Tories did not "win" outright in 2010 they did advance strongly in terms of seats and votes, and Labour were knocked back to their second lowest vote since the '30s. If it was that close I think the party that squeaked into government would be tempted to go for another election in a year or two.
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I think the majority of voters think the Mansion Tax is a good thing. Didnt a post announcement poll not even have a maj of Con voters supporting it?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, reality and reporting are often far apart.
I'd dispute it as win-win, though. Best case scenario is zero damage for Miliband. He's not going to take any support from the Klass Party, is he?
I think Myleene will get little sympathy for not wanting to pay an extra £250 per month out of her massive wealth.
I stick by my win win comment
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The LDs are probably not finished, not least because they're almost certainly not on 5% but more like 8. However, I wouldn't read too much into their past recoveries as a guide to the present. Politics is far more fragmented now than it was then, when the Liberals were virtually the only option to Labour and the Conservatives.kle4 said:The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.
The Lib Dems still have a formidable parliamentary presence, a good - if reduced - body of councillors, many activists and long-term supporters. They also have a strong presence in many areas up and down the country. Those factors can form the basis of a recovery but it's not something that will come as of right simply by returning to opposition. After all, opponents of the Conservatives still hark back to Thatcher and opponents of Labour to Iraq, if not further. It will be at least a decade before many former Lib Dem supporters are willing to forgive, never mind forget.
Against which, there is barely a part of the Lib Dem electoral coalition that is not under attack from Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, nationalist, independents or others. They may not be unique among the old parties in having old certainties challenged but they are most vulnerable.
To take one simple example of a potential slide to oblivion, there is a possibility - small but not insignificant - that they could end up with the fifth-largest parliamentary party (behind Con, Lab, SNP and UKIP), and the fifth-largest vote (behind Con, Lab, UKIP and Green) after the election. At a stroke, that would wipe virtually all Lib Dem representatives from the media for the next parliament.0 -
Maybe not going down felt like an increase after what had gone before?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Libdems pretty static for the last 10 weeks:david_herdson said:
Indeed. Worst Lib Dem score by any pollster in very nearly a quarter of a century.Speedy said:
Last time it was in the summer of 1990.Danny565 said:Is this the first time since the late 80s/early 90s that the Lib Dems have gone to 5% or lower?
Their record low was 3% in November 1989.
Like Mike, I'd take the LD score as a bit of an outlier, particularly as they had seemed to have been picking up a touch in the last few weeks. Even so, the Con/Lab figures are in line with the consensus and the LDs have hit 6% fairly often over the last few months so it's not too much of a surprise, simply on the basis of statistical fluctuations, that they were going to notch a 5 sooner or later if they kept polling around that level.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5340138213049671680 -
The British public back Ed Miliband's plan to tax houses worth more than £2m, according to a poll from YouGov for The Times.
The survey found that 30% of respondents "tended to support" the "mansion tax" proposal and 42% of people "strongly supported" the policy.
But only 7% of respondents said they "strongly opposed" the idea and 11% said they "tended to oppose" the plan.
From The Times 24/9/140 -
Ach, teaches me for rounding down off the top of my head. UKIP in 2010 were the largest ever (2nd was Referendum party in '97, followed by UKIP again in the intervening years), I was aiming to use them as the benchmark.JohnLilburne said:0 -
Mr. Owls, as Miss Cyclefree pointed out earlier, she wouldn't've paid anything. Her house was worth £1.8m, below the threshold.0
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I suspect you are correct, but at present it's about the only hope they have. It might have worked if UKIP had done well but gotten no seats and lost momentum after 2015, but they seem guaranteed to win some (no more than 5 I hope, I have money on that) and either have a referendum to prepare for or the lack of one to mobilize them still, not leaving much protest vote ground to return to the LDs.david_herdson said:
The LDs are probably not finished, not least because they're almost certainly not on 5% but more like 8. However, I wouldn't read too much into their past recoveries as a guide to the present.kle4 said:The LDs are not fis.
Sounds about right. A vulnerability without a clear fix at present. A shame, as it would be nice to have more than 2.5 major parties in UK terms, perhaps 2 big and 2 moderately sized, but it looks tough.david_herdson said:
Against which, there is barely a part of the Lib Dem electoral coalition that is not under attack from Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, nationalist, independents or others. They may not be unique among the old parties in having old certainties challenged but they are most vulnerable.kle4 said:The L.
.0 -
I hadn't appreciated that you wanted it instead of council tax rather than in addition to.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
It would go down well, because the land value tax would result in a drastic reduction or even abolition of Council Tax, which disproportionally hits the people you refer to while multi millionaires pay a few hundred more than they do in council tax for their band H pads in Westminster or Wandsworth. As do the local gentry in their band H country mansions.Cyclefree said:
Just to get away from the crazy London property market, in this relatively poor part of Cumbria (which I know well - having family there) average property prices are: - Millom, with an overall average price of £90,514 was cheaper than nearby Askam-In-Furness (£131,656), Kirkby-In-Furness (£225,900) and Dalton-In-Furness (£114,302).Paul_Mid_Beds said:bigjohnowls said:myleene really was stupid last night comparing water to a £2m pad as were the people tweeting she won the argument.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/millionaire-myleene-klass-blasted-being-4646847
What we actually need is a land value tax of 1% of the value of any land owned with no exemptions (other than perhaps certain charities like the national trust). That would break up the big estates, tax the multinationals heavily and stop pensioners bed blocking family houses.
The area is served by a Labour MP Jamie Reed.
Average salaries are ca. £15,258 - £36,248.
I'm sure having to pay - in addition to council tax - 1% of the value of their homes - somewhere between an extra £900 - £1143 p.a. - will go down well.
The big juicy target in taxation is not income, its very valuable immovable assets, held by a proportionally very small portion of the electorate.
And if that causes house prices to collapse then that is the best news the country has had in years because young people will be able to afford somewhere to live again.
I agree that there should be many more council tax bands at the top end and have said so repeatedly.
I also agree that the supply, price and quality of housing is an issue - and will, if not addressed, properly, become an even bigger political issue - and have said so.
Causing a big collapse in house prices, though, is not great, is it - if lots of people end up in negative equity. It's one reason why the Tories got slaughtered in 1997. And it could play havoc with the balance sheets of building societies and banks.
All this shows that neither the Tories nor Labour have anything like a sensible housing policy for the country.
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People want more stuff and for somebody else to pay for it. Thats a surprise for you ?bigjohnowls said:The British public back Ed Miliband's plan to tax houses worth more than £2m, according to a poll from YouGov for The Times.
The survey found that 30% of respondents "tended to support" the "mansion tax" proposal and 42% of people "strongly supported" the policy.
But only 7% of respondents said they "strongly opposed" the idea and 11% said they "tended to oppose" the plan.
From The Times 24/9/14
Call it what you will but it's not exactly government.0 -
On Myleene-Klasswar:
The danger of the MT is that a lot of media types will come out against Ed over it; and mock Miliband minor in public.
It is possible to recover from unpopularity, but when even London luvvies turn against you...
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I haven't joined in the Ed is Crap bullying because it didn't seem to be based on anything other than a few missed paragraphs in a speech and a vague 'weirdness' factor coming from equally weird people.nigel4england said:
It is when the Leader of the Opposition and supposed PM in seven months time gets slaughtered by Myleene KlassHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is it pantomime season already?nigel4england said:
Oh no he isn'tbigjohnowls said:Todays Opinium LAB 318 CON 291 LD 11
EICIPM
However, in his comeback speech, he said he was going to take on UKIP. Farage offered a showdown and Ed chickened out. Very unimpressive.
Yesterday, we were treated to his being roughed up by a manufactured pop starlette.
Why does his mother let him out to play with those rough UKIP boys and celebrity girls without his big brother David being on hand to see he doesn't come home with a bloody nose?0 -
Guardian news @guardiannews · 7 mins7 minutes ago
Alex Salmond is a paranoid loser, says former BBC chairman http://t.gu.com/Eubmn
Oh boy...0 -
That's not entirely true. In 1923, the reunited Liberals gained 96 seats to win a total of 158 seats on 30% of the vote. It's true that they went backwards badly in 1924, losing over a hundred and taking just 18% but five years later they bounced back to 24%. What they did not bounce back in was seats, winning just 59. Even so, they would probably have been handily placed for the 1931 election had not Lloyd George fallen ill at the critical moment and had not the party then split in the absence of his leadership. Their decline was sealed by that split, not the events seven years earlier.Speedy said:
Sorry I thought it was 1923 not 1924, but anyway when they propped a Labour government most of the Liberal support melted away to the Tories out of fear of Labour in power and then what remained melted away to Labour in order to get rid of the Tories.david_herdson said:
The Asquith-LG and National Coalition splits did far more damage to the Liberals than propping up Labour in 1924 (not 1923) did.Speedy said:
It's the reverse bandwagon effect alright.kle4 said:The LDs are not finished for good, they've been down to fewer than 10 MPs before and survived in previous incarnations, but they are gone for a long time on the numbers this year. That the trend even now is for a decline means even those who might be considering voting for them will not see the point, in a reverse effect to Kippers, who are increasingly seeing their vote as not being wasted so will probably retain more. It's at the point where they cannot even rely on the same FPTP system they dislike to save more of their MPs than national vote share would expect them to, they are down so low. It's hard to see how they can get a reasonable result out of 2015 now, and avoiding disaster is the best they can hope for. The only other question is how quickly they might be able to recover with new leadership and a Labour government doing many of the same things as the Tories.
I said a long time ago that the LD did the same mistake in propping up the Tories as the Liberals in propping up Labour in 1923, it took them 40 years to show a sign of life and I expect it will take as long again for the LD to recover.
The same think has happened again with most of the LD support melting away out of fear and disagreement of propping a Tory government and now the prospect of the remains melting to the Tories in a last ditch effort to keep Labour out.0 -
Maybe Cameron could get her to stand in for him at PMQsfoxinsoxuk said:On Myleene-Klasswar:
The danger of the MT is that a lot of media types will come out against Ed over it; and mock Miliband minor in public.
It is possible to recover from unpopularity, but when even London luvvies turn against you...0 -
Though another year of 12.1% house price inflation would take over the threshold.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, as Miss Cyclefree pointed out earlier, she wouldn't've paid anything. Her house was worth £1.8m, below the threshold.
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Are Labour supporters really as stupid as they are trying to make out tonight?
I presume it must be deliberate, but they are spectacularly missing the point regarding the fragrant Ms Klass.
The issue isn't whether the London House tax is popular, or whether Ms Klass is a woman of sound principles, or how rich she is, but something much more simple: that your leader, a PPE graduate, professional politician, experienced debater, former Cabinet minister, and (God help us) your candidate for Prime Minister in a few months' time, wasn't able to debate with her coherently. The more you diss her as an airhead or worse, the worse it makes your man look.
You do see the point, I hope?0 -
Does he live in Lewes ?antifrank said:Guardian news @guardiannews · 7 mins7 minutes ago
Alex Salmond is a paranoid loser, says former BBC chairman http://t.gu.com/Eubmn
Oh boy...0
