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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%
The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication.
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How did it "slip out"?
Should I include it in ELBOW?
Yes the Opinium poll numbers are there:
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/op5032_opinium_pr_voting_reasons_-_tables_v.pdf
Key change: CON+5, LD-4
Key thing: LD beyond the electoral abyss on a new record low of 5% (electoral calculus LD 7 seats).
Tory dilemma: If it's not an outlier then Tories ahead but LD and Clegg finished for good, if it's an outlier then Tories not in lead but LD and Clegg still can still hope.
As Farage would say : "Baffling"
That’s your cue TSE…! ; )
To be honest though I think the EdM effect, which may be filtering through, will be more than cancelled out by the Reckless win, so we will be back where we were.
I'm not sure I'd expect much significant to change until late January into February, when as you will all know I think the Tory surge will begin.
Does that mean publish if we like the results and hide if we don't?
SNP 7 gains, Labour gain 18 or so ? Rest to the Tories almost by default ?
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
Charles Kennedy for next LD leader is not unreasonable if there are only a handful of LD MP's left.
(I've got a thread brewing on this, which is depressing to write as a Lib Dem).
Just to get away from the crazy London property market, in this relatively poor part of Cumbria (which I know well - having family there) average property prices are: - Millom, with an overall average price of £90,514 was cheaper than nearby Askam-In-Furness (£131,656), Kirkby-In-Furness (£225,900) and Dalton-In-Furness (£114,302).
The area is served by a Labour MP Jamie Reed.
Average salaries are ca. £15,258 - £36,248.
I'm sure having to pay - in addition to council tax - 1% of the value of their homes - somewhere between an extra £900 - £1143 p.a. - will go down well.
EICIPM
A factor with Opinium is that it is the only online firm that doesn't have any political weighting - either by party ID or past vote and is thus liable to much bigger fluctuations.
I said a long time ago that the LD did the same mistake in propping up the Tories as the Liberals in propping up Labour in 1923, it took them 40 years to show a sign of life and I expect it will take as long again for the LD to recover.
1. Got rogered by a c-list celebrity.
2. Got his party to spend the day attacking said celebrity!
Wtf.
There were six in October as well, plus eight ties. But that's the whole-month figure. We are only just over half way through November.
Their record low was 3% in November 1989.
Do any of the Tories in the lead polls give any other viable PM other than Ed is Crap?
So I took full advantage of this slipping out.
Now that would be interesting no?
In the Scottish election in 2011, the Lib Dems actually fell MORE in seats they held than the national average fall.
The PDs: retained some seats but actually disbanded as a party after GE.
The Greens: managed not to abolish themselves as a party but lost all their seats.
Irish Labour are about to be pounded in the 2016 GE.
Look what happened to the FDP in Germany.
Being junior coalition partner is a tough job but someone has to do it.
Must be some weird new celebrity retail party standing in the next election that only Labour know about.
Sounds plausible.
Populus internals for Lib Dems:
87 upweighted to 111
57% 10/10 to vote.
Unweighted base 376 -> 387 Lib Dem 2010 voters.
Lib Dem identifiers upweighted from 149 -> 205.
It is precisely the same sort of adjustments which lead Populus to a bigger "big two" than most of the other pollsters.
Yet the Lab-Con bias (Compared to other pollsters) was noted because their score is up on most other pollsters. Yet its there for the Lib Dems too (Deflated UKIP score) and yet they were only on 7% in that poll.
Incredible.
Those on the right stayed. But if staying in 2015 means letting Ed Miliband into Downing Street... You can see why those primarily on the right of the LibDems might wonder why they are bothering. This poll just coincided with the moment they collectively thought "bugger this for a game of soldiers..."
Or its an outlier.
I am sticking with a fall of up to 30% in Sheffield Central.
Like Mike, I'd take the LD score as a bit of an outlier, particularly as they had seemed to have been picking up a touch in the last few weeks. Even so, the Con/Lab figures are in line with the consensus and the LDs have hit 6% fairly often over the last few months so it's not too much of a surprise, simply on the basis of statistical fluctuations, that they were going to notch a 5 sooner or later if they kept polling around that level.
Ed Miliband is meant to be fighting back, redefining himself and Labour’s offer to voters. Unfortunately, last night, it was a case of plus ça change.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/11/18/what-ed-miliband-should-have-said-to-myleene-klass/#.VGuFYUajuSo.twitter
Labour List can't resist the chance to remind voters that Labour's leader is a loser who can't win an argument.
That's even better than under PR, where even in its most perfect incarnation you'd probably need at least 0.077%...
The big juicy target in taxation is not income, its very valuable immovable assets, held by a proportionally very small portion of the electorate.
And if that causes house prices to collapse then that is the best news the country has had in years because young people will be able to afford somewhere to live again.
- Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency.
- Assume that vote scores under 5% are harder to compress (give a 1.5% boost to any score that would be under 5% with a hard stop at 1.5%)
- Assume no incumbency boost
- Separate out Scotland (Giving them 3.5% in Scotland to reflect a further hit; UKIP only 10% in Scotland rather than 20%)
- Give Tories 17% in Scotland (similar to last time)
- Have Labour and SNP level on 31% in Scotland
- Use Con 34, Lab 33, LD 5, UKIP 20, Green 5 for GB
... You get (on straight UNS) 9 LD seats (7 in England, 1 in Scotland, 1 in Wales)
(For reference, you end up with Lab 323, Con 277, SNP 17, LD 9, Plaid 3, Green 2, UKIP 1)
Of course, you'll have some incumbency boost (which is what UKIP are relying on in Clacton and (they hope) Rochester). If you shove in a 2% incumbency boost for the Big Two parties (which seems consistent with pervious elections; could be questionable this time) and a 6% incumbency boost for Lib Dems (looks reasonably consistent with the Ashcroft figure) and adjust the Clacton seat by hand - otherwise it's utterly unwinnable for UKIP; on those figures, it's gonna be held by them.
...
You get 16 LD seats on 5% of the vote, with it never going negative or even below 1.5% in any seat.
(Lab 312, Con 280, SNP 17, LD 16, Plaid 3, UKIP 2, Green 2.
All for whatever it's worth. That's just what UNS produces under those assumptions (which don't look too implausible). It is, as with any modelling, highly artificial, but it does show that even on very low figures, the Lib Dems can get a few seats.
Lab need a few more Myleenes squealing about their Lot and Ed needs more Tory turmoil post Rochester.
I think a LAB Majority is a very unlikely outcome but still see the most likely scenario being LAB/SNP or LAB/LD .
How do you see GE2015 turning out.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/534013821304967168
Myleene made a fool of herself comparing a glass of water with a mansion and claiming you can barely get a garage for £2m.
It was win win win for Ed
Have you not seen the polling on the mansion tax?
I'd dispute it as win-win, though. Best case scenario is zero damage for Miliband. He's not going to take any support from the Klass Party, is he?
The big juicy target in taxation is not income, its very valuable immovable assets, held by a proportionally very small portion of the electorate.
And if that causes house prices to collapse then that is the best news the country has had in years because young people will be able to afford somewhere to live again.
PS 1% of land value is not 1% of home value. Land value of a £100k house up there is about £25k. Therefore they pay £250 a year as opposed to £1500 a year now in council tax.
Meanwhile the local squire with an estate worth £5 million, £4.5 million of which is the value of the land who currently pays £2k for band H council tax will pay £50,000 per year.
The same think has happened again with most of the LD support melting away out of fear and disagreement of propping a Tory government and now the prospect of the remains melting to the Tories in a last ditch effort to keep Labour out.
Lab/SNP would be problematic unless the SNP give up their policy of not voting on England-only matters; the government could have no mandate on the English NHS or education. If the Tories and Labour are on about 36/33 there is no real mandate for either party: Labour would have increased its vote a bit but the Tories kept most of theirs from GE2010. In contrast, although the Tories did not "win" outright in 2010 they did advance strongly in terms of seats and votes, and Labour were knocked back to their second lowest vote since the '30s. If it was that close I think the party that squeaked into government would be tempted to go for another election in a year or two.
I think Myleene will get little sympathy for not wanting to pay an extra £250 per month out of her massive wealth.
I stick by my win win comment
The Lib Dems still have a formidable parliamentary presence, a good - if reduced - body of councillors, many activists and long-term supporters. They also have a strong presence in many areas up and down the country. Those factors can form the basis of a recovery but it's not something that will come as of right simply by returning to opposition. After all, opponents of the Conservatives still hark back to Thatcher and opponents of Labour to Iraq, if not further. It will be at least a decade before many former Lib Dem supporters are willing to forgive, never mind forget.
Against which, there is barely a part of the Lib Dem electoral coalition that is not under attack from Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, nationalist, independents or others. They may not be unique among the old parties in having old certainties challenged but they are most vulnerable.
To take one simple example of a potential slide to oblivion, there is a possibility - small but not insignificant - that they could end up with the fifth-largest parliamentary party (behind Con, Lab, SNP and UKIP), and the fifth-largest vote (behind Con, Lab, UKIP and Green) after the election. At a stroke, that would wipe virtually all Lib Dem representatives from the media for the next parliament.
The survey found that 30% of respondents "tended to support" the "mansion tax" proposal and 42% of people "strongly supported" the policy.
But only 7% of respondents said they "strongly opposed" the idea and 11% said they "tended to oppose" the plan.
From The Times 24/9/14
I agree that there should be many more council tax bands at the top end and have said so repeatedly.
I also agree that the supply, price and quality of housing is an issue - and will, if not addressed, properly, become an even bigger political issue - and have said so.
Causing a big collapse in house prices, though, is not great, is it - if lots of people end up in negative equity. It's one reason why the Tories got slaughtered in 1997. And it could play havoc with the balance sheets of building societies and banks.
All this shows that neither the Tories nor Labour have anything like a sensible housing policy for the country.
Call it what you will but it's not exactly government.
The danger of the MT is that a lot of media types will come out against Ed over it; and mock Miliband minor in public.
It is possible to recover from unpopularity, but when even London luvvies turn against you...
However, in his comeback speech, he said he was going to take on UKIP. Farage offered a showdown and Ed chickened out. Very unimpressive.
Yesterday, we were treated to his being roughed up by a manufactured pop starlette.
Why does his mother let him out to play with those rough UKIP boys and celebrity girls without his big brother David being on hand to see he doesn't come home with a bloody nose?
Alex Salmond is a paranoid loser, says former BBC chairman http://t.gu.com/Eubmn
Oh boy...
I presume it must be deliberate, but they are spectacularly missing the point regarding the fragrant Ms Klass.
The issue isn't whether the London House tax is popular, or whether Ms Klass is a woman of sound principles, or how rich she is, but something much more simple: that your leader, a PPE graduate, professional politician, experienced debater, former Cabinet minister, and (God help us) your candidate for Prime Minister in a few months' time, wasn't able to debate with her coherently. The more you diss her as an airhead or worse, the worse it makes your man look.
You do see the point, I hope?