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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs

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  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    hunchman said:

    Neil said:

    hunchman said:

    Neil said:

    hunchman said:

    Neil said:

    @hunchman

    Will be good to see you too. Hopefully a certain Watford fan will be able to join us and update us on his ISA. I'll be the one flirting with Nino in the corner if you cant find me.

    Yes I hope the Watford fan and his ISA is there too. And I'll ask him how his FTSE 8,000 forecast is going!
    Better than your FTSE -8,000 prediction ;)

    LOL.

    I trust your AGW predictions are going just as well> No Arctic sea ice by 2014, no snow in winter in the UK by now. Global warming of 1.5C worldwide by now to name but a few.
    You'll find no predictions of the kind from me in any of my posts in over 10 years on pbc!
    So you're disowning the predictions of Caroline Lucas, Natalie Bennett et al then?!
    I dont think either of them have particular expertise in this area either! I largely agree with their policy prescriptions though.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    chestnut said:

    The YG Named Leader Adjustment

    CON 34 LAB 31

    The YG Named Leader Myleene Klass Bikini Adjustment

    CON 37 LAB 28

    Myleene gets her tax out for the lads in Dirty Dicks on Friday

    FACT (Fantasies are coming true)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Artist said:

    Are Labour supporters really as stupid as they are trying to make out tonight?

    I presume it must be deliberate, but they are spectacularly missing the point regarding the fragrant Ms Klass.

    The issue isn't whether the London House tax is popular, or whether Ms Klass is a woman of sound principles, or how rich she is, but something much more simple: that your leader, a PPE graduate, professional politician, experienced debater, former Cabinet minister, and (God help us) your candidate for Prime Minister in a few months' time, wasn't able to debate with her coherently. The more you diss her as an airhead or worse, the worse it makes your man look.

    You do see the point, I hope?

    The difference is that Klass is an inoffensive celebrity, not a poltiician. She evidently doesn't know much about how tax or politics works, he was hardly going to tear her apart on a late night dumbed down ITV show and he wouldn't have got any credit even if he had done so.
    Klass could well have more of an idea about tax and politics than Ed the Dud.

    Anyhow, today's Mansion is tomorrow's Semi.

    We all know where any new property tax will be applied as the thresholds creep ever lower.
    The simple fact is she made a laughable error by saying £2m only buys one a garage. I cannot see how this is "bad for Ed" outside of these fair pages, where almost everything is deemed bad for Ed. I suspect it will make no difference whatsoever
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    RobD said:

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    Is attendance not compulsory?
    Hope not, otherwise that'd be bloody expensive!
    Were you in the air today?

    Make sure you add this poll to your spreadsheet.

    Greens were on 5%

    Fieldwork was 14th to 17th of November.

    Sample size was 1,947, off which 1,705 gave a VI.

    They've pulled the tables from their site.
    What were LDs on?
    Life support
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Guys: just so everyone knows, what AGW stands for has been changed.

    To deal with the current cold snap in the US, with warmer weather in Europe, it has been renamed Asymmetrical Global Warming.

    Thank you.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    chestnut said:

    The YG Named Leader Adjustment

    CON 34 LAB 31

    The YG Named Leader Myleene Klass Bikini Adjustment

    CON 37 LAB 28

    Myleene gets her tax out for the lads in Dirty Dicks on Friday

    FACT (Fantasies are coming true)

    Keep up the good work

    #saveEd # WeloveEd
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    edited November 2014
    Moses_ said:

    chestnut said:

    The YG Named Leader Adjustment

    CON 34 LAB 31

    The YG Named Leader Myleene Klass Bikini Adjustment

    CON 37 LAB 28

    Myleene gets her tax out for the lads in Dirty Dicks on Friday

    FACT (Fantasies are coming true)

    Keep up the good work

    #saveEd # WeloveEd
    After Rochester I think the heat will be off (at least temporarily). Unless Labour's share takes a nosedive.
  • isam said:

    A few posters, only yesterday, were chiding me for the 'wishful thinking' of my Tory vote forecasts. I hope they are feeling suitably chaste today.

    Yes, Nick Palmer, I'm thinking of you.

    What were you forecasting CR?
    My forecast was this, only yesterday afternoon:

    "..I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority."

    I stand by that forecast, although I think the seat totals for Con a little too high. I think something more like 295-305 seats.

    This morning we had JackW with a very similar ARSE prediction. We now have an opinion poll showing Con very close to my predicted poll share, and in the lead.

    Yet I have to put up with accusations I'm indulging in 'wishful thinking', and a PB Tory, by some posters, every time I post something that forecasts a Tory win. This is despite the fact I wasn't even planning to vote Conservative until Ed Miliband's speech, am fiercely critical of Cameron, and think the party will fall to pieces within a couple of years of winning GE2015.
    I did say "wishful thinking" but not because of your conclusion, just because you allocated % of UKIP voters to Con but none to Labour.
    Yawn. I've been through this multiple times with you. I was using it as an example to illustrate a key component of my expected swingback effect to the Conservatives, prior to the GE2015, when voters will increasingly be faced with a forced Miliband/Cameron choice.

    It was heavily caveated accordingly in the original post. You know this. But this seems to be repeatedly glossed over, all because I didn't show all my full working.

    If you want to declare some sort of psephological superiority over me on that basis then, fine, I'll let you claim that little victory.

    This is a blog. I post when I can, and I share my views and insights in the spur of the moment. I don't have time to waterproof every single thought I contribute.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    rcs1000 said:

    Guys: just so everyone knows, what AGW stands for has been changed.

    To deal with the current cold snap in the US, with warmer weather in Europe, it has been renamed Asymmetrical Global Warming.

    Thank you.

    Asymmetrical ?? Way behind the times the latest buzz word is "over arching ".... Apparently?

    Nope I don't know either?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO

    The most expensive garage in London can have a quadruple extension and still not qualify for the MT

    The most expensive glass of water will not qualify either.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited November 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    But I still don't hear your solution. If no party has a majority of seats in the house of commons, they can enact no legislation. Do you want constant elections, where we get the same result again and again. If no party has the 325-odd seats, then there will need to be some sort of arrangement. (As happens in councils up and down the country today, and as happens in countries all over the world.)

    I would also remind you that there is no correlation at all between "government by coalition" and "bad government" worldwide. (Just as there is no correlation between single party rule and good government.)

    It is not constitutionally necessary for the government to be able to pass legislation. All it needs to do to remain office is to retain the confidence of the House of Commons and secure supply for the Crown (R. (Jackson) v Attorney General [2006] 1 AC 262, 315 per Baroness Hale of Richmond (HL)). There is no need for a government to have a majority to do both of those things. A Parliament in which no legislation was passed would be no bad thing.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    A few posters, only yesterday, were chiding me for the 'wishful thinking' of my Tory vote forecasts. I hope they are feeling suitably chaste today.

    Yes, Nick Palmer, I'm thinking of you.

    What were you forecasting CR?
    My forecast was this, only yesterday afternoon:

    "..I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority."

    I stand by that forecast, although I think the seat totals for Con a little too high. I think something more like 295-305 seats.

    This morning we had JackW with a very similar ARSE prediction. We now have an opinion poll showing Con very close to my predicted poll share, and in the lead.

    Yet I have to put up with accusations I'm indulging in 'wishful thinking', and a PB Tory, by some posters, every time I post something that forecasts a Tory win. This is despite the fact I wasn't even planning to vote Conservative until Ed Miliband's speech, am fiercely critical of Cameron, and think the party will fall to pieces within a couple of years of winning GE2015.
    I did say "wishful thinking" but not because of your conclusion, just because you allocated % of UKIP voters to Con but none to Labour.
    Yawn. I've been through this multiple times with you. I was using it as an example to illustrate a key component of my expected swingback effect to the Conservatives, prior to the GE2015, when voters will increasingly be faced with a forced Miliband/Cameron choice.

    It was heavily caveated accordingly in the original post. You know this. But this seems to be repeatedly glossed over, all because I didn't show all my full working.

    If you want to declare some sort of psephological superiority over me on that basis then, fine, I'll let you claim that little victory.

    This is a blog. I post when I can, and I share my views and insights in the spur of the moment. I don't have time to waterproof every single thought I contribute.
    Get over yourself, I wasn't arguing
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    My apologies; I have a clinic that afternoon.

    I do hope to make the Broxtowe victory party though!
    That'd be fun! [Pause for someone to say "but will Anna invite you?"] If I do get back, we might do a PB event at the Commons. Guest of honour will be PtP, who is coming up to help for a bit...

  • isam said:

    isam said:

    A few posters, only yesterday, were chiding me for the 'wishful thinking' of my Tory vote forecasts. I hope they are feeling suitably chaste today.

    Yes, Nick Palmer, I'm thinking of you.

    What were you forecasting CR?
    My forecast was this, only yesterday afternoon:

    "..I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority."

    I stand by that forecast, although I think the seat totals for Con a little too high. I think something more like 295-305 seats.

    This morning we had JackW with a very similar ARSE prediction. We now have an opinion poll showing Con very close to my predicted poll share, and in the lead.

    Yet I have to put up with accusations I'm indulging in 'wishful thinking', and a PB Tory, by some posters, every time I post something that forecasts a Tory win. This is despite the fact I wasn't even planning to vote Conservative until Ed Miliband's speech, am fiercely critical of Cameron, and think the party will fall to pieces within a couple of years of winning GE2015.
    I did say "wishful thinking" but not because of your conclusion, just because you allocated % of UKIP voters to Con but none to Labour.
    Yawn. I've been through this multiple times with you. I was using it as an example to illustrate a key component of my expected swingback effect to the Conservatives, prior to the GE2015, when voters will increasingly be faced with a forced Miliband/Cameron choice.

    It was heavily caveated accordingly in the original post. You know this. But this seems to be repeatedly glossed over, all because I didn't show all my full working.

    If you want to declare some sort of psephological superiority over me on that basis then, fine, I'll let you claim that little victory.

    This is a blog. I post when I can, and I share my views and insights in the spur of the moment. I don't have time to waterproof every single thought I contribute.
    Get over yourself, I wasn't arguing
    Yet you keep on coming back to this point.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Just watching 70's TV - OMG what car crash TV quite literally. How are people going to look back on the entertainment of this decade in 40 years time?
  • Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    My apologies; I have a clinic that afternoon.

    I do hope to make the Broxtowe victory party though!
    That'd be fun! [Pause for someone to say "but will Anna invite you?"] If I do get back, we might do a PB event at the Commons. Guest of honour will be PtP, who is coming up to help for a bit...

    Thanks NickP, for downthread. That makes sense. Although, for what it's worth, I do agree with Richard. This month has been very significant for polling!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RobD said:

    Moses_ said:

    chestnut said:

    The YG Named Leader Adjustment

    CON 34 LAB 31

    The YG Named Leader Myleene Klass Bikini Adjustment

    CON 37 LAB 28

    Myleene gets her tax out for the lads in Dirty Dicks on Friday

    FACT (Fantasies are coming true)

    Keep up the good work

    #saveEd # WeloveEd
    After Rochester I think the heat will be off (at least temporarily). Unless Labour's share takes a nosedive.
    Odd that our resident NHS expert BigJ can't see it? Or any of the NHS catastrophe in Wales . they are also shutting down a sitting Labour welsh MP who has complained about the Labour led NHS and also a very seriously vested interest

    That's Labour

    Save the NHS yeah right...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    But I still don't hear your solution. If no party has a majority of seats in the house of commons, they can enact no legislation. Do you want constant elections, where we get the same result again and again. If no party has the 325-odd seats, then there will need to be some sort of arrangement. (As happens in councils up and down the country today, and as happens in countries all over the world.)

    I would also remind you that there is no correlation at all between "government by coalition" and "bad government" worldwide. (Just as there is no correlation between single party rule and good government.)

    It is not constitutionally necessary for the government to be able to pass legislation. All it needs to do to remain office is to retain the confidence of the House of Commons and secure supply for the Crown (R. (Jackson) v Attorney General [2006] 1 AC 262, 315 per Baroness Hale of Richmond (HL)). There is no need for a government to have a majority to do both of those things. A Parliament in which no legislation was passed would be no bad thing.
    I agree. If you look at Italy, thing went swimmingly went it was denuded of stable government. It was only with Berlusconi, Monti and now Rensi that they got stable government and economic stagnation.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO


    :O

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    isam said:

    A few posters, only yesterday, were chiding me for the 'wishful thinking' of my Tory vote forecasts. I hope they are feeling suitably chaste today.

    Yes, Nick Palmer, I'm thinking of you.

    What were you forecasting CR?
    My forecast was this, only yesterday afternoon:

    Yet I have to put up with accusations I'm indulging in 'wishful thinking', and a PB Tory, by some posters, every time I post something that forecasts a Tory win. This is despite the fact I wasn't even planning to vote Conservative until Ed Miliband's speech, am fiercely critical of Cameron, and think the party will fall to pieces within a couple of years of winning GE2015.
    I did say "wishful thinking" but not because of your conclusion, just because you allocated % of UKIP voters to Con but none to Labour.
    Yawn. I've been through this multiple times with you. I was using it as an example to illustrate a key component of my expected swingback effect to the Conservatives, prior to the GE2015, when voters will increasingly be faced with a forced Miliband/Cameron choice.

    It was heavily caveated accordingly in the original post. You know this. But this seems to be repeatedly glossed over, all because I didn't show all my full working.

    If you want to declare some sort of psephological superiority over me on that basis then, fine, I'll let you claim that little victory.

    This is a blog. I post when I can, and I share my views and insights in the spur of the moment. I don't have time to waterproof every single thought I contribute.
    Get over yourself, I wasn't arguing
    Yet you keep on coming back to this point.
    Because you were crowing today about being proved right even though some people had "accused you of wishful thinking"

    I didn't say you were wrong but just pulled you up on something that didn't seem right in the working that seemed like "wishful thinking" ... you explained it, and I said fair enough. Just wanted to clarify, if the "wishful thinking" remark was aimed at me, why I said it.

    When you kind of show your working, as you did, but leave something out, its fair enough for people to mention it, I would expect the same if I did it
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO

    The most expensive garage in London can have a quadruple extension and still not qualify for the MT

    The most expensive glass of water will not qualify either.
    You may think that ..... The electorate could not possibly comment


    Deluded..... Keep up the good work though


    #saveEd#WeloveEd
  • Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    Yah mo be there. I hope we can all play nicely in person!
  • Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO

    The most expensive garage in London can have a quadruple extension and still not qualify for the MT

    The most expensive glass of water will not qualify either.
    Please BJ just give it up, tribal politics is both depressing and childish.

    Ed got totally embarassed but I'm sure he will get over it, I doubt many voters will be swayed by it, in fact only anoraks like us watch The Agenda.

    The only damage he has done is to the morale within his own party, and as that couldn't sink any lower it's not really an issue.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549

    rcs1000 said:

    But I still don't hear your solution. If no party has a majority of seats in the house of commons, they can enact no legislation. Do you want constant elections, where we get the same result again and again. If no party has the 325-odd seats, then there will need to be some sort of arrangement. (As happens in councils up and down the country today, and as happens in countries all over the world.)

    I would also remind you that there is no correlation at all between "government by coalition" and "bad government" worldwide. (Just as there is no correlation between single party rule and good government.)

    It is not constitutionally necessary for the government to be able to pass legislation. All it needs to do to remain office is to retain the confidence of the House of Commons and secure supply for the Crown (R. (Jackson) v Attorney General [2006] 1 AC 262, 315 per Baroness Hale of Richmond (HL)). There is no need for a government to have a majority to do both of those things. A Parliament in which no legislation was passed would be no bad thing.
    True, but to secure supply you need to be able to pass an annual finance act, otherwise no income tax would be due.
  • Sanctimonious twat Bono, who berates the Irish government constantly to spend more in foreign aid while refusing to actually pay tax in Ireland himself, has disappeared:

    http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2014/11/18/breaking-news-pop-shock-as-bono-vanishes-during-concert/
  • BJO you are right garages do not sell for £2m in London, this rundown dilapidated garage only raised £550,000:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/11196451/Britains-most-expensive-garage-sold-for-550000.html
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    Not me I'm afraid.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Surely this proposed Mansion Tax should have some kind of London Weighting?
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    A few posters, only yesterday, were chiding me for the 'wishful thinking' of my Tory vote forecasts. I hope they are feeling suitably chaste today.

    Yes, Nick Palmer, I'm thinking of you.

    What were you forecasting CR?
    Yawn. I've been through this multiple times with you. I was using it as an example to illustrate a key component of my expected swingback effect to the Conservatives, prior to the GE2015, when voters will increasingly be faced with a forced Miliband/Cameron choice.

    It was heavily caveated accordingly in the original post. You know this. But this seems to be repeatedly glossed over, all because I didn't show all my full working.

    If you want to declare some sort of psephological superiority over me on that basis then, fine, I'll let you claim that little victory.

    This is a blog. I post when I can, and I share my views and insights in the spur of the moment. I don't have time to waterproof every single thought I contribute.
    Get over yourself, I wasn't arguing
    Yet you keep on coming back to this point.
    Because you were crowing today about being proved right even though some people had "accused you of wishful thinking"

    I didn't say you were wrong but just pulled you up on something that didn't seem right in the working that seemed like "wishful thinking" ... you explained it, and I said fair enough. Just wanted to clarify, if the "wishful thinking" remark was aimed at me, why I said it.

    When you kind of show your working, as you did, but leave something out, its fair enough for people to mention it, I would expect the same if I did it
    You said fair enough, and then came back again with further questions and observations on it. Which I'd already explained. It's that part that made it tedious.

    I don't mind the challenge, Sam. In fact, I'd be disappointed if I didn't get it. I do mind when a poster just wants to have the last word, just to emphasise how clever they were to spot it in the first place. If that happens, expect me to point it out when I'm proved right.

    This is probably even more boring for everyone reading this thread than it is for you and I, now, so I'm going to leave it and head to bed. I think we've both made our points.
  • Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    Not me I'm afraid.

    Me neither you'll be pleased to hear.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014

    Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO

    The most expensive garage in London can have a quadruple extension and still not qualify for the MT

    The most expensive glass of water will not qualify either.
    Please BJ just give it up, tribal politics is both depressing and childish.

    Ed got totally embarassed but I'm sure he will get over it, I doubt many voters will be swayed by it, in fact only anoraks like us watch The Agenda.

    The only damage he has done is to the morale within his own party, and as that couldn't sink any lower it's not really an issue.</blockquote


    Could not agree more it was very quiet , no one noticed heh who cares? with one slight caveat

    The national newspapers, Sky and the BBC and also CBS in the USA.

    But yes .....no one gave a flying duck ( with or without the flu)

    SaveEd#WeloveEd




  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    Surely this proposed Mansion Tax should have some kind of London Weighting?

    Wouldn't that rather destroy the point of it?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    isam said:

    Surely this proposed Mansion Tax should have some kind of London Weighting?

    Because valuable houses are concentrated in London? Do you also propose a London weighting for income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax, etc.? The fact that London house prices exploded even more than the rest of the country isn't a reason to spare it the Mansion Tax, it is precisely the reason London needs it more.

    Having said which, this is a lengthy argument waiting to happen and I'm tired. So I'm going to be rude and state my position but not stay online to reply to anything you post in response.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Charles said:

    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it
    Me too.

    When does it start?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Re mansion tax: I would personally be happier with either:

    1) A second homes tax, to encourage people to only own as many homes as they actually live in. (I.e., it would free up housing stock.) In preference, I'd like this to be an unused asset tax, but that might be a bit more problematic.

    2) Higher council tax bands.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    A few posters, only yesterday, were chiding me for the 'wishful thinking' of my Tory vote forecasts. I hope they are feeling suitably chaste today.

    Yes, Nick Palmer, I'm thinking of you.

    What were you forecasting CR?

    Get over yourself, I wasn't arguing
    Yet you keep on coming back to this point.
    Because you were crowing today about being proved right even though some people had "accused you of wishful thinking"

    I didn't say you were wrong but just pulled you up on something that didn't seem right in the working that seemed like "wishful thinking" ... you explained it, and I said fair enough. Just wanted to clarify, if the "wishful thinking" remark was aimed at me, why I said it.

    When you kind of show your working, as you did, but leave something out, its fair enough for people to mention it, I would expect the same if I did it
    You said fair enough, and then came back again with further questions and observations on it. Which I'd already explained. It's that part that made it tedious.

    I don't mind the challenge, Sam. In fact, I'd be disappointed if I didn't get it. I do mind when a poster just wants to have the last word, just to emphasise how clever they were to spot it in the first place. If that happens, expect me to point it out when I'm proved right.

    This is probably even more boring for everyone reading this thread than it is for you and I, now, so I'm going to leave it and head to bed. I think we've both made our points.
    Fair enough, I wasn't trying to make you look silly or look clever myself, I was trying to point out you needed to give some UKIP votes to Labour else you might be lulled into having a bad bet. I know how easy it is to talk yourself into backing what you want to happen and ignoring the things that might go wrong, as I do it myself, and it seemed you were doing that.. sorry you took it so hard
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO

    The most expensive garage in London can have a quadruple extension and still not qualify for the MT

    The most expensive glass of water will not qualify either.
    At a risk of being factually accurate, she did NOT say that you can only buy a garage for £2m.

    What she said was "have you seen what you can buy for £2m, it's like a garage".

    The first flat that I bought (for about £250K) would now be valued at £2m. It was a 1,000 sq foot box in Chelsea. A very boring rectangle. Not unlike a garage - and certainly not a huge space for that sort of money.

    Clearly Kensington & Chelsea is not representative of London, but she was employing a concept known as "metaphor"
  • Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO

    The most expensive garage in London can have a quadruple extension and still not qualify for the MT

    The most expensive glass of water will not qualify either.
    Please BJ just give it up, tribal politics is both depressing and childish.

    Ed got totally embarassed but I'm sure he will get over it, I doubt many voters will be swayed by it, in fact only anoraks like us watch The Agenda.

    The only damage he has done is to the morale within his own party, and as that couldn't sink any lower it's not really an issue.
    I know but I was just trying to shut him up.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    Charles said:

    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it

    Sadly not

    Thursday yes Friday ??? Really? Not a hope

    Very frustrating given that I / we spend all Week in the city and by then most of us are just desperate to get out back to peaceful sanity

    He Ho!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Surely this proposed Mansion Tax should have some kind of London Weighting?

    Wouldn't that rather destroy the point of it?
    Would it?! Oh right maybe I am wrong then
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it
    Me too.

    When does it start?
    I thought 6.30, although TSE said people turn up from 6pm. I have a call with someone in Chicago then, so won't join until later.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Moses_ said:

    Charles said:

    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it

    Sadly not

    Thursday yes Friday ??? Really? Not a hope

    Very frustrating given that I / we spend all Week in the city and by then most of us are just desperate to get out back to peaceful sanity

    He Ho!
    I hear you.

    Apparently there's a by-election or something this Thursday...?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Some bed time reading for all the AGW worshippers:

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=707&c=5

    Thank goodness for Sammy Wilson, Graham Stringer, Peter Lilley, Owen Patterson and Roger Helmer and last but not least, Piers Corbyn.

    Good night all - D-Day -2. What % UKIP win on Thursday night is the tipping point for Tory-UKIP defections? 15%? 20%? As for Kelly Tolhurst, I think she rather neatly encapsulates the historic decline of the Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - don't you?
  • Test
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @hunchman

    A pb first - someone giving thanks for Sammy Wilson! I remember Peter Lilley complaining that mitigating the impacts of climate change was useless because the benefits wont be felt for generations. Rather the point, Peter, rather the point.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    If UKIP win, I'll be there to hear your explanation of how the Armitage Shanks strategy failed.

    I shall be bringing a copy of Strange Places, Questionable People by John Simpson.

    I also will be bringing my tablet with select pages of the internet saved.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ninoinoz said:

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    If UKIP win, I'll be there to hear your explanation of how the Armitage Shanks strategy failed.

    I shall be bringing a copy of Strange Places, Questionable People by John Simpson.

    I also will be bringing my tablet with select pages of the internet saved.
    I shall bring a single red rose. For you. xx
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    hunchman said:

    Some bed time reading for all the AGW worshippers:

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=707&c=5

    Thank goodness for Sammy Wilson, Graham Stringer, Peter Lilley, Owen Patterson and Roger Helmer and last but not least, Piers Corbyn.

    Good night all - D-Day -2. What % UKIP win on Thursday night is the tipping point for Tory-UKIP defections? 15%? 20%? As for Kelly Tolhurst, I think she rather neatly encapsulates the historic decline of the Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - don't you?

    I am the only person to think Kelly Tolhurst should be the UKIP candidate and Mark Reckless the Tory one? It's as if they've got the wrong description against themselves.
  • Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Charles said:

    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it

    Sadly not

    Thursday yes Friday ??? Really? Not a hope

    Very frustrating given that I / we spend all Week in the city and by then most of us are just desperate to get out back to peaceful sanity

    He Ho!
    I hear you.

    Apparently there's a by-election or something this Thursday...?
    I'll be there - Fridays are great for me as I come back to London from the West Midlands. Haven't been to Dirty Dick's in about 18 months. Six months ago I couldn't make it as I was in India, and a year ago I had just started my job up in the Midlands.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ninoinoz said:

    hunchman said:

    Some bed time reading for all the AGW worshippers:

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=707&c=5

    Thank goodness for Sammy Wilson, Graham Stringer, Peter Lilley, Owen Patterson and Roger Helmer and last but not least, Piers Corbyn.

    Good night all - D-Day -2. What % UKIP win on Thursday night is the tipping point for Tory-UKIP defections? 15%? 20%? As for Kelly Tolhurst, I think she rather neatly encapsulates the historic decline of the Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - don't you?

    I am the only person to think Kelly Tolhurst should be the UKIP candidate and Mark Reckless the Tory one? It's as if they've got the wrong description against themselves.
    No I thought that watching newsnight... If Tolhurst were the kipper Id be cringing a bit, and thinking we looked a bit amateur
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Charles said:

    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it

    Sadly not

    Thursday yes Friday ??? Really? Not a hope

    Very frustrating given that I / we spend all Week in the city and by then most of us are just desperate to get out back to peaceful sanity

    He Ho!
    I hear you.

    Apparently there's a by-election or something this Thursday...?
    Random question, but do you (or any city bods) have experience of the company G-Research? I was approached to apply for a position, but still no closer to a decision on what I should do after a weekend of mulling it over.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Tory candidate in Rochester byelection demands action on immigration
    Kelly Tolhurst, who trails Ukip’s Mark Reckless in polls, says she will go straight to PM with her concerns if she wins"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/18/tory-candidate-rochester-byelection-immigration?CMP=twt_gu
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Neil said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    saddened said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    saddened said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    saddened said:

    TGOHF said:

    saddened said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    James Matthews ‏@jamesmatthewsky · 13m13 minutes ago
    England fans chanting: 'You're just a small town in England'. Scotland fans: 'Jimmy Savile, he's one of your own'

    But Jimmy's mate Cardinal Keith O'Brien ..ll
    Justify your remark.

    In any case, he was Irish.
    Is he the one forced to retire due to groping and sexually assaulting young priests that he was in a position of power over?
    No charges brought - why not ?
    Having just read the wiki entry it's difficult, if taken at face value, to see why not.
    Again, justify your remark.

    Perhaps you wish to take out a private prosecution?
    multiple allegations from multiple complainants, an admission that his sexual conduct was inappropriate, as stated if taken at face value, it's difficult to see why no charges were brought. I would guess it was because the accusers did not raise a specific complaint with the police. Why they didn't is anyone's guess.
    Or they were eccleisiastic offences, but not criminal ones.
    Ah, the father Ted defence. I always thought allegations of "groping" where a criminal offence, as in sexual assault, but I'll bow to your superior knowledge of the law as it relates to young priests allegedly being touched up in the circumstances outlined in the wiki article.
    You, or the alleged victims, are free to take private prosecutions against O'Brien.

    Otherwise, innocent until proven guilty (or not proven, I suppose).

    Not trial by wikipedia, as you seem to think.
    Isnt the Cardinal guilty of homosexuality by his own admission? It's always the ones that shout the loudest...

    I thought homosexual acts were legal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:


    Mmmmmmm

    You know it’s bad when the Staggers have to try to spin Ed’s going over by Myleene Klass on last night’s Agenda. Apparently “this row could work in Miliband’s favour.” Hmm, not if the voting public are anything to go by…

    Ed gave Myleene a good seeing to IMO

    The most expensive garage in London can have a quadruple extension and still not qualify for the MT

    The most expensive glass of water will not qualify either.
    At a risk of being factually accurate, she did NOT say that you can only buy a garage for £2m.

    What she said was "have you seen what you can buy for £2m, it's like a garage".

    The first flat that I bought (for about £250K) would now be valued at £2m. It was a 1,000 sq foot box in Chelsea. A very boring rectangle. Not unlike a garage - and certainly not a huge space for that sort of money.

    Clearly Kensington & Chelsea is not representative of London, but she was employing a concept known as "metaphor"
    Like a garage for 10+ classic cars then ?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ninoinoz said:

    Neil said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    saddened said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    saddened said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    saddened said:

    TGOHF said:

    saddened said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    James Matthews ‏@jamesmatthewsky · 13m13 minutes ago
    England fans chanting: 'You're just a small town in England'. Scotland fans: 'Jimmy Savile, he's one of your own'

    But Jimmy's mate Cardinal Keith O'Brien ..ll
    Justify your remark.

    In any case, he was Irish.
    Is he the one forced to retire due to groping and sexually assaulting young priests that he was in a position of power over?
    No charges brought - why not ?
    Having just read the wiki entry it's difficult, if taken at face value, to see why not.
    Again, justify your remark.

    Perhaps you wish to take out a private prosecution?
    multiple allegations from multiple complainants, an admission that his sexual conduct was inappropriate, as stated if taken at face value, it's difficult to see why no charges were brought. I would guess it was because the accusers did not raise a specific complaint with the police. Why they didn't is anyone's guess.
    Or they were eccleisiastic offences, but not criminal ones.
    Ah, the father Ted defence. I always thought allegations of "groping" where a criminal offence, as in sexual assault, but I'll bow to your superior knowledge of the law as it relates to young priests allegedly being touched up in the circumstances outlined in the wiki article.
    You, or the alleged victims, are free to take private prosecutions against O'Brien.

    Otherwise, innocent until proven guilty (or not proven, I suppose).

    Not trial by wikipedia, as you seem to think.
    Isnt the Cardinal guilty of homosexuality by his own admission? It's always the ones that shout the loudest...

    I thought homosexual acts were legal?
    Not just legal - they're also great fun.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited November 2014
    Well done to England tonight, a well deserved win. Don't know what they are putting on top of Rooney's porridge, but he is certainly playing better for his national team than he is when he turns out for his club right now. And as for us Scots, when we scored that great goal near the end and then England immediately replied with another goal to make it 3-1. I immediately thought of Robyn Williams views on the game of golf.... "Near the end I'll put a little flat piece with a little flag to give you ******* hope. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Today will always be remembered as the day of the 'slipping' poll.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2014
    Roger said:

    I understand Labour's new ploy is to horsewhip immigrants? It might work but it's not guaranteed. Chances are that the Tories will propose skinning them but everyone knows you can't out UKIP UKIP.

    I think Ed would be better sticking to a left wing agenda.

    Yup, he'll have the same problem Cameron does, times ten. None of the people who actually want anti-immigrant policies are going to believe he'll deliver them.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Charles said:

    Ttn

    Those planning to attend Dirty Dicks on Friday, let yourselves be known.

    Now

    It appears most of PB will be attending.

    I will try to make it

    Sadly not

    Thursday yes Friday ??? Really? Not a hope

    Very frustrating given that I / we spend all Week in the city and by then most of us are just desperate to get out back to peaceful sanity

    He Ho!
    I hear you.

    Apparently there's a by-election or something this Thursday...?
    Ok yes and accepted in full.....

    Cannot stay in London for a Friday night though,

    Little " grrrr" then if nothing else
This discussion has been closed.