On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
I got robbed last night by 2 people after getting off a night bus in Rome. The problem was I didn't expect the Metro to close as early as 11:30pm on a Thursday night. Luckily I wasn't injured when they grabbed my coat. The 2 people (who got on the bus at the same time as me) were obviously waiting for me to get off and hoping it was in an area without anyone else around, which is what happened.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
That’s rather uncharitable, unrealistic - and curmudgeonly. She was called directly by the leader and asked to stand. She had to grasp the opportunity. If she hadn’t, someone else might have won the seat and compromised Miss Kitchen’s chances at the GE.
1 - $550 million penalty. 2 - Lifetime ban from the real estate business in NY. 3 - Continuing involvement of the Monitor in the Trump Organisation because of the continuing dodginess.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The one with the reflections in the moving train window was even more impressive - would be a pain to CGI render. But it's an interesting question as to how much it can improve, and how quickly.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The one with the reflections in the moving train window was even more impressive - would be a pain to CGI render. But it's an interesting question as to how much it can improve, and how quickly.
It's not yet lifelike; more life-adjacent.
How do I text a prompt to the system to create a video?
As per @SamCoatesSky - Sunak has now got the record for losing Tory-held seats in by-elections during a parliament. He's beaten John Major's legendary run in 92-97.
According to Prof Curtice very well written and argued piece for BBC - wish I could write and sum up well as that - at net -3 he’s only equalled 92-97 record.
Both Curtice and Thrasher have used this measurement today - I don’t like it. It’s very random how many by elections come up in a parliament, where they are, so random on level of difficulty, and timing in the cycle mid term or not, so it’s not a great measurement, so I have given both Curtice and Thrasher a black mark for that today.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The one with the reflections in the moving train window was even more impressive - would be a pain to CGI render. But it's an interesting question as to how much it can improve, and how quickly.
It's not yet lifelike; more life-adjacent.
How do I text a prompt to the system to create a video?
You're asking the wrong guy. I'm just an audience member.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
I'm pretty sure Russia won't be putting their war on hold for the rest of the month.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4470043-white-house-hits-johnson-for-going-on-recess-without-passing-ukraine-aid/ ..House GOP leadership canceled votes for Friday, and the House will return to Washington on Feb. 28 after the President’s Day recess. Bates noted the split out of D.C. also comes days after former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won in a New York special election, flipping a GOP-held seat. “The American people are outraged at the damage Speaker Johnson is causing to America’s national security in the name of politics, as voters in New York proved Tuesday,” Bates said. “But instead of ending his politicization of the country’s safety, Speaker Johnson is cutting and running, sending the House on an early, undeserved vacation as he continues to strengthen Russia’s murderous war effort and the Iranian regime at the expense of American national security, U.S. manufacturing jobs, and our closest alliances,” he added...
Perhaps the Dems shouldn't have got rid of Kevin McCarthy.
Having him replaced with a MAGA puppet might help the Dems in the 2024 elections but it was also going to make governing harder until then.
If it was all the Dems doing they would be able to replace Johnson with someone more amenable. They can't, because it isn't.
Anyway, important thing is that the chance of the House voting more money for Ukraine is zero. Not much point worrying about Trump - the pro-Putin shills in the GOP are already in charge.
Europe desperately needs to accept this reality and react appropriately.
Its not all the Dems doing.
But a large part of it is.
Accepting chaos in the House when they control the White House and Senate wasn't conducive to passing laws or providing funding for anything.
Yet the Dems were willing to have a non-functioning House for a year if it meant the GOP looked bad.
I just don't see how the Dems could have saved McCarthy. If he'd won a vote for Speaker only because of receiving Democrat support then he'd be finished. It would be the conclusive proof of everything the MAGA-GOP have always said about the "moderates" being Republicans In Name Only.
It's a complete fantasy to imagine that a coalition between the Democrats and moderate Republicans could last five seconds. The moderate Republicans don't want it, because they're terrified of the consequences.
If the Dems had abstained McCarthy would have won by around 210-10.
But the Dems preferred to vote with Matt Gaetz to bring down McCarthy.
Now they have to deal with the consequences of a House which wont pass anything.
Its what they chose and what they knew was likely to happen when they made that choice.
I see your point, but that's a bit like "she deserved to be sexually assaulted because she was wearing a provocative skirt".
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
I'm pretty sure Russia won't be putting their war on hold for the rest of the month.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4470043-white-house-hits-johnson-for-going-on-recess-without-passing-ukraine-aid/ ..House GOP leadership canceled votes for Friday, and the House will return to Washington on Feb. 28 after the President’s Day recess. Bates noted the split out of D.C. also comes days after former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won in a New York special election, flipping a GOP-held seat. “The American people are outraged at the damage Speaker Johnson is causing to America’s national security in the name of politics, as voters in New York proved Tuesday,” Bates said. “But instead of ending his politicization of the country’s safety, Speaker Johnson is cutting and running, sending the House on an early, undeserved vacation as he continues to strengthen Russia’s murderous war effort and the Iranian regime at the expense of American national security, U.S. manufacturing jobs, and our closest alliances,” he added...
Perhaps the Dems shouldn't have got rid of Kevin McCarthy.
Having him replaced with a MAGA puppet might help the Dems in the 2024 elections but it was also going to make governing harder until then.
If it was all the Dems doing they would be able to replace Johnson with someone more amenable. They can't, because it isn't.
Anyway, important thing is that the chance of the House voting more money for Ukraine is zero. Not much point worrying about Trump - the pro-Putin shills in the GOP are already in charge.
Europe desperately needs to accept this reality and react appropriately.
Its not all the Dems doing.
But a large part of it is.
Accepting chaos in the House when they control the White House and Senate wasn't conducive to passing laws or providing funding for anything.
Yet the Dems were willing to have a non-functioning House for a year if it meant the GOP looked bad.
I just don't see how the Dems could have saved McCarthy. If he'd won a vote for Speaker only because of receiving Democrat support then he'd be finished. It would be the conclusive proof of everything the MAGA-GOP have always said about the "moderates" being Republicans In Name Only.
It's a complete fantasy to imagine that a coalition between the Democrats and moderate Republicans could last five seconds. The moderate Republicans don't want it, because they're terrified of the consequences.
If the Dems had abstained McCarthy would have won by around 210-10.
But the Dems preferred to vote with Matt Gaetz to bring down McCarthy.
Now they have to deal with the consequences of a House which wont pass anything.
Its what they chose and what they knew was likely to happen when they made that choice.
I see your point, but that's a bit like "she deserves to be sexually assaulted because she was wearing a provocative skirt".
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
Legally not all 'theft' is theft. The jury have to conclude that the taking is 'dishonest'. This is always a matter for them. Putting milk from your friend's fridge in your tea when they have popped out and you can't ask them satisfies the meaning of 'theft' except for the 'dishonest' bit. No jury/bench in the land would convict this lady.
If property is not actually abandoned but is considered so by the defendant, there can be no conviction. The issue is whether the individual subjectively and honestly believed the property was abandoned. R v Small [1987] Crim LR 777 Court of Appeal
I would assume the sandwich was destined for the bin. But this will be a policy / process issue, not a question of actual theft. The cleaner will have gone against her employers policy by taking anything at all from the client. This policy would probably have still applied if someone from the client firm had offered the sandwich to her. The process problem is that once an organisation has taken a decision to dismiss someone it's really difficult to reinstate them. More sensible managers would have just told the cleaner not to do it again and informed the client that they had that conversation.
There does seem to be a difference between these two Labour by election gains & those in the latter stages of Major’s govt, for people who are comparing Sir Keir to Sir Anthony
Neither of yesterdays winners added many votes to the Labour score from 2019
Wellingborough +144 Kingswood -5316
Whereas in Wirral South in 1996, Labour were +5360 & South East Staffs +4167
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
What you are saying is at odds with John Major advisor Daniel Finkelstein, who argues Major waited too long, so got a worse result.
I feel bad for Sunak, I don’t think he is a bad person. But saying this is a mid term by election is pushing it
I feel bad for him too. Turns out he is not good at politics and is now in a very sticky situation. I suspect even the best PM would be finding it tough right not, but Sunak is more out of his depth than I would be batting at 4 for England.
I don't after he threw trans people under the bus.
I'm pretty sure Russia won't be putting their war on hold for the rest of the month.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4470043-white-house-hits-johnson-for-going-on-recess-without-passing-ukraine-aid/ ..House GOP leadership canceled votes for Friday, and the House will return to Washington on Feb. 28 after the President’s Day recess. Bates noted the split out of D.C. also comes days after former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won in a New York special election, flipping a GOP-held seat. “The American people are outraged at the damage Speaker Johnson is causing to America’s national security in the name of politics, as voters in New York proved Tuesday,” Bates said. “But instead of ending his politicization of the country’s safety, Speaker Johnson is cutting and running, sending the House on an early, undeserved vacation as he continues to strengthen Russia’s murderous war effort and the Iranian regime at the expense of American national security, U.S. manufacturing jobs, and our closest alliances,” he added...
Perhaps the Dems shouldn't have got rid of Kevin McCarthy.
Having him replaced with a MAGA puppet might help the Dems in the 2024 elections but it was also going to make governing harder until then.
If it was all the Dems doing they would be able to replace Johnson with someone more amenable. They can't, because it isn't.
Anyway, important thing is that the chance of the House voting more money for Ukraine is zero. Not much point worrying about Trump - the pro-Putin shills in the GOP are already in charge.
Europe desperately needs to accept this reality and react appropriately.
Its not all the Dems doing.
But a large part of it is.
Accepting chaos in the House when they control the White House and Senate wasn't conducive to passing laws or providing funding for anything.
Yet the Dems were willing to have a non-functioning House for a year if it meant the GOP looked bad.
I just don't see how the Dems could have saved McCarthy. If he'd won a vote for Speaker only because of receiving Democrat support then he'd be finished. It would be the conclusive proof of everything the MAGA-GOP have always said about the "moderates" being Republicans In Name Only.
It's a complete fantasy to imagine that a coalition between the Democrats and moderate Republicans could last five seconds. The moderate Republicans don't want it, because they're terrified of the consequences.
If the Dems had abstained McCarthy would have won by around 210-10.
But the Dems preferred to vote with Matt Gaetz to bring down McCarthy.
Now they have to deal with the consequences of a House which wont pass anything.
Its what they chose and what they knew was likely to happen when they made that choice.
I see your point, but that's a bit like "she deserves to be sexually assaulted because she was wearing a provocative skirt".
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The one with the reflections in the moving train window was even more impressive - would be a pain to CGI render. But it's an interesting question as to how much it can improve, and how quickly.
It's not yet lifelike; more life-adjacent.
The skill will come from avoiding anything that looks like uncanny valley - and trimming the video before it reaches that point
As per @SamCoatesSky - Sunak has now got the record for losing Tory-held seats in by-elections during a parliament. He's beaten John Major's legendary run in 92-97.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
Nick Clegg tried something similar.
His party was almost wiped out, he himself lost his seat in 2017, and he's now working in Silicon Valley.
So yes, I can see how that strategy might endear itself to Rishi. "Hi Elon! Are you recruiting right now?"
There does seem to be a difference between these two Labour by election gains & those in the latter stages of Major’s govt, for people who are comparing Sir Keir to Sir Anthony
Neither of yesterdays winners added many votes to the Labour score from 2019
Wellingborough +144 Kingswood -5316
Whereas in Wirral South in 1996, Labour were +5360 & South East Staffs +4167
Although on the other hand in Dudley West, scene of the biggest swing of all, Labour's vote was down by about 500.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The one with the reflections in the moving train window was even more impressive - would be a pain to CGI render. But it's an interesting question as to how much it can improve, and how quickly.
It's not yet lifelike; more life-adjacent.
The skill will come from avoiding anything that looks like uncanny valley - and trimming the video before it reaches that point
I feel bad for Sunak, I don’t think he is a bad person. But saying this is a mid term by election is pushing it
I feel bad for him too. Turns out he is not good at politics and is now in a very sticky situation. I suspect even the best PM would be finding it tough right not, but Sunak is more out of his depth than I would be batting at 4 for England.
I don't after he threw trans people under the bus.
He did that during his election campaign for the Conservative leadership. Con policy for the next GE is ramping up the culture ‘vwar with trans people as the enemy du jour. That and pretending to hate immigrants is pretty much all they’ve got left.
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
Not mainstream advertisers in the first instance but small firms who cannot afford advertising agencies but want to plug their used car dealership on local telly at 3am, or on social media.
That's the trouble with Leon's unnuanced scaremongering. Those at the top won't be affected. The big chunk in the middle have their jobs at risk. For those at the bottom, AI gives them the opportunity to do things they could not previously afford.
More worrying is the local equivalent of a 30-year-old Keir Starmer ordering the CPS to free the nonces, and the nonces generating AI porn videos.
Navalny did spend most of his political career being a stridently Islamophobic ultra-nationalist so put your onions back in your avos'ka, lads.
He wasn't exactly keen on Ukrainians either.
Even so, a smidgeon of respect for someone with the balls to go on an extended and highly unpleasant suicide mission. I do wonder what he was hoping to achieve or if martyr status was enough for him.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
Yep and I’ve been saying that for months.
The least worst time is May because while people argue something may come along and push votes in Rishi’s direction it’s equally (probably more likely) that any event will push more votes towards Labour or can’t be arsed to go out and vote due to the rain/cold/ tv program.
Navalny did spend most of his political career being a stridently Islamophobic ultra-nationalist so put your onions back in your avos'ka, lads.
He wasn't exactly keen on Ukrainians either.
Nevalny was a bit like a character from the Who's song " Won't Get Fooled Again", however selecting to leave a Berlin hospital for a flight to Moscow did seem like a poor call at the time.
Still using the music analogy I am reminded of Putin each time I hear the fourth line of R. Dean Taylor's Indiana Wants Me.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
I feel bad for Sunak, I don’t think he is a bad person. But saying this is a mid term by election is pushing it
I feel bad for him too. Turns out he is not good at politics and is now in a very sticky situation. I suspect even the best PM would be finding it tough right not, but Sunak is more out of his depth than I would be batting at 4 for England.
I don't after he threw trans people under the bus.
He absolutely didn't do that. He made a pretty poor joke about Starmer.
I feel bad for Sunak, I don’t think he is a bad person. But saying this is a mid term by election is pushing it
I feel bad for him too. Turns out he is not good at politics and is now in a very sticky situation. I suspect even the best PM would be finding it tough right not, but Sunak is more out of his depth than I would be batting at 4 for England.
I don't after he threw trans people under the bus.
Well he didn't. He just questions SKS's stance on it and it is a issue that concerns many voters.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
That’s rather uncharitable, unrealistic - and curmudgeonly. She was called directly by the leader and asked to stand. She had to grasp the opportunity. If she hadn’t, someone else might have won the seat and compromised Miss Kitchen’s chances at the GE.
Nothing uncharitable or curmudgeonly about it at all. In fact, it's the opposite: it's concern for the welfare of her and her husbands newly married life.
Your view on this is entirely influenced (seemingly without any conscious awareness from you) by the fact she's Labour. There are so many seats to go at this time that a young talented candidate would have no problem at all fighting the general.
If she was a Tory, you'd have been much happier to view it in a more circumspect way. If not add in a bit of curmudgeonly yourself.
I'm pretty sure Russia won't be putting their war on hold for the rest of the month.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4470043-white-house-hits-johnson-for-going-on-recess-without-passing-ukraine-aid/ ..House GOP leadership canceled votes for Friday, and the House will return to Washington on Feb. 28 after the President’s Day recess. Bates noted the split out of D.C. also comes days after former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won in a New York special election, flipping a GOP-held seat. “The American people are outraged at the damage Speaker Johnson is causing to America’s national security in the name of politics, as voters in New York proved Tuesday,” Bates said. “But instead of ending his politicization of the country’s safety, Speaker Johnson is cutting and running, sending the House on an early, undeserved vacation as he continues to strengthen Russia’s murderous war effort and the Iranian regime at the expense of American national security, U.S. manufacturing jobs, and our closest alliances,” he added...
Perhaps the Dems shouldn't have got rid of Kevin McCarthy.
Having him replaced with a MAGA puppet might help the Dems in the 2024 elections but it was also going to make governing harder until then.
If it was all the Dems doing they would be able to replace Johnson with someone more amenable. They can't, because it isn't.
Anyway, important thing is that the chance of the House voting more money for Ukraine is zero. Not much point worrying about Trump - the pro-Putin shills in the GOP are already in charge.
Europe desperately needs to accept this reality and react appropriately.
Its not all the Dems doing.
But a large part of it is.
Accepting chaos in the House when they control the White House and Senate wasn't conducive to passing laws or providing funding for anything.
Yet the Dems were willing to have a non-functioning House for a year if it meant the GOP looked bad.
I just don't see how the Dems could have saved McCarthy. If he'd won a vote for Speaker only because of receiving Democrat support then he'd be finished. It would be the conclusive proof of everything the MAGA-GOP have always said about the "moderates" being Republicans In Name Only.
It's a complete fantasy to imagine that a coalition between the Democrats and moderate Republicans could last five seconds. The moderate Republicans don't want it, because they're terrified of the consequences.
If the Dems had abstained McCarthy would have won by around 210-10.
But the Dems preferred to vote with Matt Gaetz to bring down McCarthy.
Now they have to deal with the consequences of a House which wont pass anything.
Its what they chose and what they knew was likely to happen when they made that choice.
I see your point, but that's a bit like "she deserves to be sexually assaulted because she was wearing a provocative skirt".
"Look at what you made me do."
Could also be Putin to Navalny.
Or Ukraine.
But another Richard is right, it was entirely predictable this would happen if McCarthy was removed, and Dems should have abstained rather than playing politics for no good reason except trying to make Republicans look bad. This was obvious at the time.
Even stupider than Remainer MPs voting with the ERG against any Brexit deal.
Always worth double checking if you find yourself voting alongside those you are most opposed to - someone has probably miscalculated, you need to be sure it isn't you!
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
Don't worry. 600,000 people have stopped being young and Labour voting and have become old and Cons voting. Meanwhile 600,000 people have become young and Labour voting for the first time.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
According to my consultant if I had not had my pacemaker operation last week I would likely have been one of those statistics
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
According to my consultant if I had not had my pacemaker operation last week I would likely have been one if those statistics
That's one potential Tory vote I'm happy to applaud.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
According to my consultant if I had not had my pacemaker operation last week I would likely have been one if those statistics
That's one potential Tory vote I'm happy to applaud.
At present it is a Lib Dem vote as my conservative mp will lose and I will not vote Labour but will vote
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
Don't worry. 600,000 people have stopped being young and Labour voting and have become old and Cons voting. Meanwhile 600,000 people have become young and Labour voting for the first time.
All is well in the world.
Unlikely, given the housing crisis and the s***show on display from the government
It's not a cheerful insight- "You mean, we have to choose the less bad of two disappointing options? We don't even get to choose between tax cuts and spending rises?"
But that insight might contain the beginnings of wisdom.
Navalny did spend most of his political career being a stridently Islamophobic ultra-nationalist so put your onions back in your avos'ka, lads.
He wasn't exactly keen on Ukrainians either.
Even so, a smidgeon of respect for someone with the balls to go on an extended and highly unpleasant suicide mission. I do wonder what he was hoping to achieve or if martyr status was enough for him.
He spent quite a lot of time and energy putting the boot into Medvedev (On Vam Ne Dimon, etc.) so you have to wonder who was funding that. That would be #classicputin.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
Don't worry. 600,000 people have stopped being young and Labour voting and have become old and Cons voting. Meanwhile 600,000 people have become young and Labour voting for the first time.
All is well in the world.
The 600,000 who in theory got older and are now voting Tory probably voted Tory in 2019.
The issue is that the only age group voting Tory now are the retired - everyone else is seeing their tax rise yet services continue to deteriorate
He has presumably calculated that Navalny’s support has been diminished/suppressed to the extent he can get away with it now. Maybe there were worries doing this earlier would have ignited more protest.
It is also probably a pre-election signal - I’m in total control, don’t even think about protesting the result, because look what happens to my enemies.
I have often thought the next flashpoint comes at the Presidential election. If there is any time Russians are going to express dissent it will be after Putin’s rubber-stamped victory. This is an attempt to head that off at the pass.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
This story manages to encapsulate nearly everything wrong with modern Britain. Exploited immigrant labour, arrogant rich people, bad food and all wrapped up in a Social Media lynch mob.
What more is there to say about us as a nation?
And outsourced cleaning staff to hide the discrepancy between wages at the top and bottom.
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
Not mainstream advertisers in the first instance but small firms who cannot afford advertising agencies but want to plug their used car dealership on local telly at 3am, or on social media.
That's the trouble with Leon's unnuanced scaremongering. Those at the top won't be affected. The big chunk in the middle have their jobs at risk. For those at the bottom, AI gives them the opportunity to do things they could not previously afford.
More worrying is the local equivalent of a 30-year-old Keir Starmer ordering the CPS to free the nonces, and the nonces generating AI porn videos.
WHAT THE FUCK HAVE I GOT TO DO WITH IT
Seriously. How does my opinion on AI, on PB, change anything? How can it be problematic?
I agree with that, though it does leave them a bit more of a hostage to fortune.
In 2010 the Tories were likely ahead in the polls because people felt they needed to get a firmer grip on the economy after the GFC, but there wasn’t tremendous enthusiasm for electing a Tory government. Hence why things like the Cleggasm happened because when there was shown to be an alternative people ran with it for a while. I’m not sure there’s really the same prospect of something like that happening this time (I don’t see Davey taking the world by storm, and that only really leaves Reform as the party who may surge, and that will damage the Tories more), but never say never.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
Don't worry. 600,000 people have stopped being young and Labour voting and have become old and Cons voting. Meanwhile 600,000 people have become young and Labour voting for the first time.
All is well in the world.
A curious world where the numbers of voters for each party stay static. Amazing we bother with elections when it is all so simple.
I agree with that, though it does leave them a bit more of a hostage to fortune.
In 2010 the Tories were likely ahead in the polls because people felt they needed to get a firmer grip on the economy after the GFC, but there wasn’t tremendous enthusiasm for electing a Tory government. Hence why things like the Cleggasm happened because when there was shown to be an alternative people ran with it for a while. I’m not sure there’s really the same prospect of something like that happening this time (I don’t see Davey taking the world by storm, and that only really leaves Reform as the party who may surge, and that will damage the Tories more), but never say never.
The Tories were slumping in the polls from January onwards. Cleggmania stole the headlines but was ultimately ephemeral.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
Not mainstream advertisers in the first instance but small firms who cannot afford advertising agencies but want to plug their used car dealership on local telly at 3am, or on social media.
That's the trouble with Leon's unnuanced scaremongering. Those at the top won't be affected. The big chunk in the middle have their jobs at risk. For those at the bottom, AI gives them the opportunity to do things they could not previously afford.
More worrying is the local equivalent of a 30-year-old Keir Starmer ordering the CPS to free the nonces, and the nonces generating AI porn videos.
WHAT THE FUCK HAVE I GOT TO DO WITH IT
Seriously. How does my opinion on AI, on PB, change anything? How can it be problematic?
100%. People seem to mistake enthusiastically hyperbolic (and, in my view, more right than wrong except on the standard unknown of timescales) for impactful. PB might be amazing but I don't think we are *that* influential...
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
Legally not all 'theft' is theft. The jury have to conclude that the taking is 'dishonest'. This is always a matter for them. Putting milk from your friend's fridge in your tea when they have popped out and you can't ask them satisfies the meaning of 'theft' except for the 'dishonest' bit. No jury/bench in the land would convict this lady.
If property is not actually abandoned but is considered so by the defendant, there can be no conviction. The issue is whether the individual subjectively and honestly believed the property was abandoned. R v Small [1987] Crim LR 777 Court of Appeal
I would assume the sandwich was destined for the bin. But this will be a policy / process issue, not a question of actual theft. The cleaner will have gone against her employers policy by taking anything at all from the client. This policy would probably have still applied if someone from the client firm had offered the sandwich to her. The process problem is that once an organisation has taken a decision to dismiss someone it's really difficult to reinstate them. More sensible managers would have just told the cleaner not to do it again and informed the client that they had that conversation.
Their disciplinary procedure should have the option of appeal with possible reinstatement but I accept it's rarely successful.
The final hurdle that the employer would have to overcome in an unfair dismissal claim would be to show that dismissal was "within the range of reasonable responses open to a reasonable employer".
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
Not mainstream advertisers in the first instance but small firms who cannot afford advertising agencies but want to plug their used car dealership on local telly at 3am, or on social media.
That's the trouble with Leon's unnuanced scaremongering. Those at the top won't be affected. The big chunk in the middle have their jobs at risk. For those at the bottom, AI gives them the opportunity to do things they could not previously afford.
More worrying is the local equivalent of a 30-year-old Keir Starmer ordering the CPS to free the nonces, and the nonces generating AI porn videos.
WHAT THE FUCK HAVE I GOT TO DO WITH IT
Seriously. How does my opinion on AI, on PB, change anything? How can it be problematic?
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
You missed the sheer awesomeness of the subtle pun…
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
You missed the sheer awesomeness of the subtle pun…
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
You missed the sheer awesomeness of the subtle pun…
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
You missed the sheer awesomeness of the subtle pun…
And one does get a tristesse after the pun doesn't work.
If Vlad is reading I just want to say, mr Putin, sir, I’ve always admired your work
Really. Especially on woke. Sound as a pound
Keep it up
"One thing is for certain: there is no stopping them; the ants will soon be here. And I for one welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personalitytravel writer for a respected right of centre magazine, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves."
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
Earlier in my career I had a company who liked me but wanted me to attend a 3rd interview. I already had another job offer so told them politely to get stuffed.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
From a Gen Erection to a Gen Election in one fell swoop.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
Normal people in normal organisations, yes. Politicians, though, are different.
There are others in the same niche- top sportspeople, performers, you get the idea- where the opportunities might not come round again. Because you don't just need to be good, you also need to be lucky.
The politicians who are better people tend to be the ones who are self-aware enough to know that there is a hefty element of being in the right place at the right time (even if it's otherwise inconvenient). A bit like the other toxic bits of meritocracy, the worst are the ones who assume that their sucess is wholly merited by their own brilliance.
I agree with that, though it does leave them a bit more of a hostage to fortune.
In 2010 the Tories were likely ahead in the polls because people felt they needed to get a firmer grip on the economy after the GFC, but there wasn’t tremendous enthusiasm for electing a Tory government. Hence why things like the Cleggasm happened because when there was shown to be an alternative people ran with it for a while. I’m not sure there’s really the same prospect of something like that happening this time (I don’t see Davey taking the world by storm, and that only really leaves Reform as the party who may surge, and that will damage the Tories more), but never say never.
Yes I agree.
In 97 I was hoping/excited for a Labour win, so maybe it felt more exciting than today when I don’t want one. This makes my memory biased I guess, but I’m sure Blair was a kind of breath of fresh air and quite exciting, rather than an offer to Steady the ship from a dull bureaucrat
Also Sir Keir’s by election gains are based on maintaining 2019 votes at best, whereas Blair’s at this stage were adding 5,000
So I think there is room for a ‘Cleggasm’, albeit as you say it’s likely to be Farage and that won’t really hinder Labour, more likely it will help
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
The kicker being there’s no charismatic personality to charm voters back anymore
I agree with that, though it does leave them a bit more of a hostage to fortune.
In 2010 the Tories were likely ahead in the polls because people felt they needed to get a firmer grip on the economy after the GFC, but there wasn’t tremendous enthusiasm for electing a Tory government. Hence why things like the Cleggasm happened because when there was shown to be an alternative people ran with it for a while. I’m not sure there’s really the same prospect of something like that happening this time (I don’t see Davey taking the world by storm, and that only really leaves Reform as the party who may surge, and that will damage the Tories more), but never say never.
Yes I agree.
In 97 I was hoping/excited for a Labour win, so maybe it felt more exciting than today when I don’t want one. This makes my memory biased I guess, but I’m sure Blair was a kind of breath of fresh air and quite exciting, rather than an offer to Steady the ship from a dull bureaucrat
Also Sir Keir’s by election gains are based on maintaining 2019 votes at best, whereas Blair’s at this stage were adding 5,000
So I think there is room for a ‘Cleggasm’, albeit as you say it’s likely to be Farage and that won’t really hinder Labour, more likely it will help
See for example Ed Miliband and Yvette Copper who only kept their seats because the right wing vote was split enough that they sneaked down the middle
Reform getting any momentum will result in the Tories losing a number (possibly significant) of seats by less votes than Reform won.
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
The interesting question to me is what value people will put on AI generated content replacing similar content previously created by humans. My guess is not much value, as it is essentially fakery. Humans will still be replaced, but it means the boilerplate stuff will be even less respected than it is now.
This is in the context of the current obsession AI replacing human activity. In fact it's doing valuable stuff that humans can't do, but no-one is interested in this. For example, it was assumed Western and Ukrainian networks would be vulnerable to Russian cyber attacks due to the asymmetric nature of these attacks You only need to attack in one place but you need to defend everywhere. As it has turned out, AI defences have held out. They are able to adaptively pattern match the attacks and stop them going further
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
Not mainstream advertisers in the first instance but small firms who cannot afford advertising agencies but want to plug their used car dealership on local telly at 3am, or on social media.
That's the trouble with Leon's unnuanced scaremongering. Those at the top won't be affected. The big chunk in the middle have their jobs at risk. For those at the bottom, AI gives them the opportunity to do things they could not previously afford.
More worrying is the local equivalent of a 30-year-old Keir Starmer ordering the CPS to free the nonces, and the nonces generating AI porn videos.
WHAT THE FUCK HAVE I GOT TO DO WITH IT
Seriously. How does my opinion on AI, on PB, change anything? How can it be problematic?
100%. People seem to mistake enthusiastically hyperbolic (and, in my view, more right than wrong except on the standard unknown of timescales) for impactful. PB might be amazing but I don't think we are *that* influential...
I actually agree on the time scale. I can be hyperbolic, I know that. I also think I can extrapolate better than 97% of PB and better than 99.99% of humanity. It’s why I saw Covid coming. On about Feb 3rd 2020 I was telling my older daughter’s mum ‘they are going to close the schools, i guarantee it, get ready’ and she laughed like I was a total lunatic then she apologised four months later. True story
However I also have a tendency to get over-excited - I know, hard to believe - which means I OVER extrapolate. I shrink time scales. This is the case with LLMs. As soon as @FrancisUrquhart told me about gpt2 on here, and what was coming, I extrapolated to actual AGI, and I am still sure it is coming, quite soon. But actually language modeling has slowed down to an extent i hadn’t foreseen (nerfing, safety fears, data limits). So it will take longer that i anticipated
See also: self driving cars
If I make a big prediction my advice is, listen carefully to me, I’m probably right, but I’m also, at the same time, probably wildly wrong in the timing and far too “optimistic”. Double any timing estimates I give
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
There does seem to be a difference between these two Labour by election gains & those in the latter stages of Major’s govt, for people who are comparing Sir Keir to Sir Anthony
Neither of yesterdays winners added many votes to the Labour score from 2019
Wellingborough +144 Kingswood -5316
Whereas in Wirral South in 1996, Labour were +5360 & South East Staffs +4167
That's because turnout was roughly half of what it was in 2019!
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Although its tempting to think that, recall the fury around Partygate at the time, and subsequently. Johnson blew his relationship with the fair minded people of the country. All those folk who religiously didn't break the rules, annoying as it was, were and are outraged by the behaviour in No 10. He had one chance to get away with it - a complete, open fess up as soon as the story broke. He didn't take it, and thus he had to go.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
From a Gen Erection to a Gen Election in one fell swoop.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
Earlier in my career I had a company who liked me but wanted me to attend a 3rd interview. I already had another job offer so told them politely to get stuffed.
I've received a job offer and salary rise whilst on holiday.
That's different: I just thank them politely and then sign-off and order another Pina Colada.
Comments
What a disgusting excuse for a human being he is.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The losing Conservative candidate in Wellingborough looks more like an MP than the Labour winner.
What do we predict?
I say
1 - $550 million penalty.
2 - Lifetime ban from the real estate business in NY.
3 - Continuing involvement of the Monitor in the Trump Organisation because of the continuing dodginess.
She does have a thing for Bone’s.
But it's an interesting question as to how much it can improve, and how quickly.
It's not yet lifelike; more life-adjacent.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/russian-activist-and-putin-critic-alexei-navalny-dies-in-prison
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did
get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68305798
Both Curtice and Thrasher have used this measurement today - I don’t like it. It’s very random how many by elections come up in a parliament, where they are, so random on level of difficulty, and timing in the cycle mid term or not, so it’s not a great measurement, so I have given both Curtice and Thrasher a black mark for that today.
I'm just an audience member.
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/england-in-india-2023-24-1389386/india-vs-england-3rd-test-1389401/match-report
Could also be Putin to Navalny.
A bitter day for anyone who hopes that Russia will emerge from the Putin death spiral.
Neither of yesterdays winners added many votes to the Labour score from 2019
Wellingborough +144
Kingswood -5316
Whereas in Wirral South in 1996, Labour were +5360 & South East Staffs +4167
It was a horrible catty response from me. But I can’t delete it now. Like I said, I’m not getting enough sleep, so I shouldn’t be posting.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1758115980759253306
"Six questions Tucker could have asked".
https://www.politico.eu/article/6-questions-tucker-carlson-should-have-asked-russia-putin-interview/
He wasn't exactly keen on Ukrainians either.
His party was almost wiped out, he himself lost his seat in 2017, and he's now working in Silicon Valley.
So yes, I can see how that strategy might endear itself to Rishi. "Hi Elon! Are you recruiting right now?"
There's no good time to call the election.
That's the trouble with Leon's unnuanced scaremongering. Those at the top won't be affected. The big chunk in the middle have their jobs at risk. For those at the bottom, AI gives them the opportunity to do things they could not previously afford.
More worrying is the local equivalent of a 30-year-old Keir Starmer ordering the CPS to free the nonces, and the nonces generating AI porn videos.
The least worst time is May because while people argue something may come along and push votes in Rishi’s direction it’s equally (probably more likely) that any event will push more votes towards Labour or can’t be arsed to go out and vote due to the rain/cold/ tv program.
Still using the music analogy I am reminded of Putin each time I hear the fourth line of R. Dean Taylor's Indiana Wants Me.
Your view on this is entirely influenced (seemingly without any conscious awareness from you) by the fact she's Labour. There are so many seats to go at this time that a young talented candidate would have no problem at all fighting the general.
If she was a Tory, you'd have been much happier to view it in a more circumspect way. If not add in a bit of curmudgeonly yourself.
Even stupider than Remainer MPs voting with the ERG against any Brexit deal.
Always worth double checking if you find yourself voting alongside those you are most opposed to - someone has probably miscalculated, you need to be sure it isn't you!
All is well in the world.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
Rob Johns
@robjohns75
·
7m
It’s important to recognise that the two claims “Labour will win handsomely” and “Labour aren’t enthusing voters” are entirely compatible
But that insight might contain the beginnings of wisdom.
The issue is that the only age group voting Tory now are the retired - everyone else is seeing their tax rise yet services continue to deteriorate
It is also probably a pre-election signal - I’m in total control, don’t even think about protesting the result, because look what happens to my enemies.
I have often thought the next flashpoint comes at the Presidential election. If there is any time Russians are going to express dissent it will be after Putin’s rubber-stamped victory. This is an attempt to head that off at the pass.
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
Seriously. How does my opinion on AI, on PB, change anything? How can it be problematic?
In 2010 the Tories were likely ahead in the polls because people felt they needed to get a firmer grip on the economy after the GFC, but there wasn’t tremendous enthusiasm for electing a Tory government. Hence why things like the Cleggasm happened because when there was shown to be an alternative people ran with it for a while. I’m not sure there’s really the same prospect of something like that happening this time (I don’t see Davey taking the world by storm, and that only really leaves Reform as the party who may surge, and that will damage the Tories more), but never say never.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
The final hurdle that the employer would have to overcome in an unfair dismissal claim would be to show that dismissal was "within the range of reasonable responses open to a reasonable employer".
We also don't know if she had prior warnings etc.
Really. Especially on woke. Sound as a pound
Keep it up
trusted TV personalitytravel writer for a respected right of centre magazine, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves."And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
There are others in the same niche- top sportspeople, performers, you get the idea- where the opportunities might not come round again. Because you don't just need to be good, you also need to be lucky.
The politicians who are better people tend to be the ones who are self-aware enough to know that there is a hefty element of being in the right place at the right time (even if it's otherwise inconvenient). A bit like the other toxic bits of meritocracy, the worst are the ones who assume that their sucess is wholly merited by their own brilliance.
In 97 I was hoping/excited for a Labour win, so maybe it felt more exciting than today when I don’t want one. This makes my memory biased I guess, but I’m sure Blair was a kind of breath of fresh air and quite exciting, rather than an offer to
Steady the ship from a dull bureaucrat
Also Sir Keir’s by election gains are based on maintaining 2019 votes at best, whereas Blair’s at this stage were adding 5,000
So I think there is room for a ‘Cleggasm’, albeit as you say it’s likely to be Farage and that won’t really hinder Labour, more likely it will help
Reform getting any momentum will result in the Tories losing a number (possibly significant) of seats by less votes than Reform won.
This is in the context of the current obsession AI replacing human activity. In fact it's doing valuable stuff that humans can't do, but no-one is interested in this. For example, it was assumed Western and Ukrainian networks would be vulnerable to Russian cyber attacks due to the asymmetric nature of these attacks
You only need to attack in one place but you need to defend everywhere. As it has turned out, AI defences have held out. They are able to adaptively pattern match the attacks and stop them going further
However I also have a tendency to get over-excited - I know, hard to believe - which means I OVER extrapolate. I shrink time scales. This is the case with LLMs. As soon as @FrancisUrquhart told me about gpt2 on here, and what was coming, I extrapolated to actual AGI, and I am still sure it is coming, quite soon. But actually language modeling has slowed down to an extent i hadn’t foreseen (nerfing, safety fears, data limits). So it will take longer that i anticipated
See also: self driving cars
If I make a big prediction my advice is, listen carefully to me, I’m probably right, but I’m also, at the same time, probably wildly wrong in the timing and far too “optimistic”. Double any timing estimates I give
That's different: I just thank them politely and then sign-off and order another Pina Colada.