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Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 12 in General
Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days – politicalbetting.com

The by-election caveats do apply, as ever, but these results are very much in line with current polling (allowing that – all else being equal, which it is here but not in Rochdale – by-elections always exaggerate national swing).

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited February 16
    Thinking of the poor sods who are the Tory councillors standing for re-election in May.

    It'll be the Dardanelles campaign.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,901
    Struggling to be second like Sunak.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    dixiedean said:

    Struggling to be second like Sunak.

    Third, like the rate of England's catching.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 587
    I have been tied up with family business and have only just learnt of Mike's diagnosis. I wish to say how sorry I am.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ydoethur said:

    Thinking of the poor sods who are the Tory councillors standing for re-election in May.

    It'll be the Dardanelles campaign.

    As they lose voters at a Gallip, polli-ing just looks worse and worse.

    The whole things getting utterly pre-Bosporus.

    Sunak is a total Turkey (that's enough - Ed)
    What a load of Istanbul
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,132
    And the more councillors they lose in May, the fewer motivated campaigners they have for a GE. Unless they hold it on the same day of course...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Thinking of the poor sods who are the Tory councillors standing for re-election in May.

    It'll be the Dardanelles campaign.

    As they lose voters at a Gallip, polli-ing just looks worse and worse.

    The whole things getting utterly pre-Bosporus.

    Sunak is a total Turkey (that's enough - Ed)
    What a load of Istanbul
    It's the best I can come up with on the subject. No point in Ankaran after a golden age when I've not got the material.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    That so many Tories think that more spending cuts to pay for a tax cut is in any way an appropriate response to broken Britain tells us that they are the most broken of all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited February 16
    So, if you were Sunak, what would you do? It’s a hard one. The long waiting game isn’t currently working for him. If anything, as time goes by his position weakens.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,877
    edited February 16
    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Thinking of the poor sods who are the Tory councillors standing for re-election in May.

    It'll be the Dardanelles campaign.

    As they lose voters at a Gallip, polli-ing just looks worse and worse.

    The whole things getting utterly pre-Bosporus.

    Sunak is a total Turkey (that's enough - Ed)
    What a load of Istanbul
    It's the best I can come up with on the subject. No point in Ankaran after a golden age when I've not got the material.
    This thread is just one big meze.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Thinking of the poor sods who are the Tory councillors standing for re-election in May.

    It'll be the Dardanelles campaign.

    As they lose voters at a Gallip, polli-ing just looks worse and worse.

    The whole things getting utterly pre-Bosporus.

    Sunak is a total Turkey (that's enough - Ed)
    What a load of Istanbul
    It's the best I can come up with on the subject. No point in Ankaran after a golden age when I've not got the material.
    This thread is just one big meze.
    Oi! Show some respect. We're trying to play Nicaea.
  • RIP the May election. Hunt can’t do a tax cut budget, so will be left trying to spin everyone’s record tax bills as a “cut” just as people really notice they are paying more.

    Unfortunately for the Tories, going beyond May only accelerates their slide towards ELE. The negative factors dragging them down accelerate hard so that even if the economy transforms itself from gradual decline to glorious stagnation, nobody will thank them.

    The various dates in November being mentioned all have their own terrible issues, which leaves 12th December as the “go early” date - though with a kicking still obviously the result it won’t happen.

    The easiest decision is indecision. If Sunak survives - or if they replace him - the election will be 23rd January 2025.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,042

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    Part of the Cult of Process is the belief that big reports by an “external body” make things better. Out sourcing your thinking.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,877
    edited February 16
    mwadams said:

    And the more councillors they lose in May, the fewer motivated campaigners they have for a GE. Unless they hold it on the same day of course...

    I expect councillors don't want a May GE...
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Struggling to be second like Sunak.

    Third, like the rate of England's catching.
    7-331 (Ravindra Jadeja, 90.5 ov), 8-408 (Ravichandran Ashwin, 119.6 ov)

    Looks like more opportunity missed there, 8th wicket partnership of 77 !
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,919
    edited February 16
    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    And I suspect those 8 voters all post on PB .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited February 16
    Labour will hold Wellingborough at the next election because Helen Harrison wants to be the Tory candidate at the general election.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,132
    Jonathan said:

    So, if you were Sunak, what would you do? It’s a hard one. The long waiting game isn’t currently working for him. If anything, as time goes by his position weakens.

    Swing back will be kicking in any time now. If he can just hang on... Just another 10-15 years..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    edited February 16

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    The name makes it difficult to abolish?

    It could start a trend; they could make the FCO the Department for World Peace and BIS the Department for Prosperity. Who could risk being seen to abolish those?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,929

    Labour will hold Wellingborough at the next election because Helen Harrison wants to be the Tory candidate at the general election.

    The Tories losing safe seats at by elections is a given now but in many cases, including these two, their candidate selection has just been woeful.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,132
    IanB2 said:

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    The name makes it difficult to abolish?

    It could start a trend; they could make the FCO the Department for World Peace and BIS the Department for Prosperity. Who could risk being seen to abolish those?
    Like turning the War Office into the MoD.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The problem the Tories face is they deserve a serious defeat. There would nothing remotely unfair about an ELE. They have been woeful. There is no sign of improvement in their fundamental inability to deliver and govern. If anything the direction is the other way. Sunak probably needs to go early.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Here’s a policy idea for Sunak. Run a voluntary Rwanda flight. There are probably a few desperate souls who would board a flight to Rwanda in return for a few quid to establish a better life. He would get his headline and could move on.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,929
    At this stage what point is there in changing Sunak and who would be the new leader.

    Andrew Neil, on TV last Sunday, is right. The polls may narrow but people have decided it is time for a change.

    For the Tories it is now damage limitation
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,198
    And on that Torygraph header is one of the main reasons the Tories are done.

    The collapse of the NHS and in particular General Practice, on their watch, affects every single one of us. And amid a cost of living crisis, private healthcare is no alternative.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Taz said:

    At this stage what point is there in changing Sunak and who would be the new leader.

    Andrew Neil, on TV last Sunday, is right. The polls may narrow but people have decided it is time for a change.

    For the Tories it is now damage limitation

    In Australia, a few years back, Labor brought back Kevin Rudd to limit the damage, he did a pretty good job. Theresa May could probably save a few seats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
  • Jonathan said:

    Here’s a policy idea for Sunak. Run a voluntary Rwanda flight. There are probably a few desperate souls who would board a flight to Rwanda in return for a few quid to establish a better life. He would get his headline and could move on.

    That doesn’t work. Let’s assume the Lords roll over and this becomes legal in May. Let’s further assume they find an aircraft and deport 100 asylum seekers.

    You think that’s the end? Punters would then expect ALL to be deported. NOW. And that can’t happen because we don’t have the officials to process their claims nor the courts capacity to declare them foreign nor secure places to intern them before deportation nor will Rwanda accept them.

    Expectation management was never the Tories strong point on this one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    It's more how it will treat risk.

    It will never overcook a forecast, because the hounds of hell would descend on it if it's wrong, and the politicians would be more than happy to put the boot in, but if it undercooks and then the surprise is on the upside then people will groan but no-one will lose their job. It has a civil service mindset.

    So it's going to be institutionally (structurally) very conservative on forecasts and spending, and this will bleed into government policy. Because it's not truly objective as advertised.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Jonathan said:

    Here’s a policy idea for Sunak. Run a voluntary Rwanda flight. There are probably a few desperate souls who would board a flight to Rwanda in return for a few quid to establish a better life. He would get his headline and could move on.

    The WhatsApps would buzz alive with the sounds of the NGOs and immigration lawyers saying, "don't you dare get on that plane", and the souls concerned would quickly be influenced or intimidated out of it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,983

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    Isn't it quite typical in a byelection for the winning party not to increase their number of votes, even if winning by a large margin, because turnout is so much lower? I think this is a pretty poor result for the Conservatives and a good one for Labour. It was previously a very safe Tory seat so whether Labour holds it at a general election may well be doubtful, but does it need to win this seat to get a decent majority?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,042
    Claimed Russian casualties in Ukraine go through 400,000 today.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978
    Truly disastrous news to wake up to.

    India at 434 and still going.

    As for the by elections, meh. The Tories are more doomed than a doomed thing and we all know it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,983

    Jonathan said:

    Here’s a policy idea for Sunak. Run a voluntary Rwanda flight. There are probably a few desperate souls who would board a flight to Rwanda in return for a few quid to establish a better life. He would get his headline and could move on.

    The WhatsApps would buzz alive with the sounds of the NGOs and immigration lawyers saying, "don't you dare get on that plane", and the souls concerned would quickly be influenced or intimidated out of it.
    Maybe Sunak and some other Tory MPs could take a one way flight themselves. They keep telling us how great Rwanda is, and I'm not sure anyone will miss them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    I think you might be venturing into the realm of wishful thinking. History suggests otherwise . It took 16 years for the Tories to come back in Dudley. Labour polled the same vote in the 1994 by election as they did in the 1992 general.

    I’m afraid to say that these results are not good for your team.
  • Just imagine how it would have been for the Tories if Starmer hadn't flip flopped on the £28 billion green investment and also events in Rochdale.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,956
    These two by-elections take the average by-election swing this Parliament to 10.6% - if replicated at the general election, Electoral Calculus predicts a 76-seat Labour majority. 4% swing-back and Electoral Calculus predicts a well-hung result, with Labour leading by 301 seats to 295.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    Probably, but turnout doesn’t work like that. Absent a GE, voters from across the spectrum will be among those who didn’t bother, even if there was a weighting towards former Tory voters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Here’s a policy idea for Sunak. Run a voluntary Rwanda flight. There are probably a few desperate souls who would board a flight to Rwanda in return for a few quid to establish a better life. He would get his headline and could move on.

    The WhatsApps would buzz alive with the sounds of the NGOs and immigration lawyers saying, "don't you dare get on that plane", and the souls concerned would quickly be influenced or intimidated out of it.
    If so, it underscores how truly bad at politics Sunak is, He boxed himself into a corner completely unnecessarily.

    Mind you I am not sure how any NGO can stop someone taking a flight to Rwanda voluntarily, especially if they have some cold hard cash waiting for them at the other end.
  • Smart51Smart51 Posts: 48
    The rise in Reform in the polls is not the mirage some thought it might be. Yesterday's by-elections are quite in line with Reform's polling. It spells bad news for the Tories as most pundits have believed that some of the Reform vote would "return home". It would seem less likely now.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    Part of the Cult of Process is the belief that big reports by an “external body” make things better. Out sourcing your thinking.
    LOL, as opposed to the exit economic competence of the Truss administration that chose to ignore the OBR?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited February 16

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    Fun fact.

    Labour votes in Dudley West

    1992 general election - 28,940

    1994 by-election 28,400

    So last night Labour got more votes in the by-election than they did at the general election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,877

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    Fun fact.

    Labour votes in Dudley West

    1992 general election - 28,940

    1994 by-election 28,400
    Here's the interesting question - applies to Wellingborough too 13,844/13,737 are they the same people ?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057
    Jonathan said:

    Here’s a policy idea for Sunak. Run a voluntary Rwanda flight. There are probably a few desperate souls who would board a flight to Rwanda in return for a few quid to establish a better life. He would get his headline and could move on.

    Tory MPs?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,263
    FPT:
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    (The like for that was sympathy.)
    Hope you're OK, as it can really shake you up.
    +1

    I was once mugged in the walkway down the side of the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead by I think a difficult-to-understand druggie with a huge stick back in 2000. I still have a vivid memory; it was soon after my diabetes diagnosis.

    It was "Give Me The Notes" followed by a small nudge with (possibly - it felt that heavy) a baseball bat on the leg. The small nudge alone gave quite extensive bruising.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    (The like for that was sympathy.)
    Hope you're OK, as it can really shake you up.
    +1

    I was once mugged in the walkway down the side of the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead by I think a difficult-to-understand druggie with a huge stick back in 2000. I still have a vivid memory; it was soon after my diabetes diagnosis.

    It was "Give Me The Notes" followed by a small nudge with (possibly - it felt that heavy) a baseball bat on the leg. The small nudge alone gave quite extensive bruising.

    Don’t know why, but I thought you meant the hospital notes, and that the druggie had some arcane use for them…

    It’s clearly too early!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,746

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    No, the OBR is the only good idea that Osborne ever had. It is a check on the Treasury's tendency towards expedient forecasts and is trusted by financial markets, hence ensuring we pay less to issue debt. Did you notice what happened to Gilt yields when Truss tried to sideline it?
    LOL

    from memory youre a forecaster yourself. I see no advantage in having duff forecasts from the OBR rather than the Treasury. As someone said there are a range of forecasters out there and they will all be wrong. It is as simple as pick your model and cross your fingers.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/19/uk-fiscal-watchdog-obr-admits-errors-inflation-forecasting-high-energy-prices
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,956
    Jonathan said:

    So, if you were Sunak, what would you do? It’s a hard one. The long waiting game isn’t currently working for him. If anything, as time goes by his position weakens.

    Win or lose at the next election he is PM now and, presumably, doesn't much rate Labour's ability in government. So there must be a few things which he thinks ought to be done, doesn't trust Labour to do, and would feel better about himself if he could look back on doing them in twenty years time while watching the sun go down over the Pacific.

    All the desperate politicking he's been messing around with hasn't done him any good, so he may as well return to what motivated him to go into politics in the first place and concentrate on that, whatever it might be.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057
    Looked on the BBC and wondered who the hell General Kitchen is, then realised Gen is her name…

    Exactly the kind a candidate a party coming to power needs - younger, fresh faced etc. The Tories need to look at their candidates if they wish to avoid wipe out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,877
    I think I spy England's tactics. Keep their bowlers out there batting till they're knackered and injured.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,865
    Good morning one and all! And it is a good morning for the Labour Party!

    Interestingly, Jacob Rees-Mogg saw the result in Kingswood could well be worse for his party, given the strength of the Reform vote, which he apparently expects to return to the Conservatives at the general election!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978
    Pulpstar said:

    I think I spy England's tactics. Keep their bowlers out there batting till they're knackered and injured.

    Well Siraj just took a sore one. If something happened to Bumrah India would be in all kinds of trouble.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057

    Good morning one and all! And it is a good morning for the Labour Party!

    Interestingly, Jacob Rees-Mogg saw the result in Kingswood could well be worse for his party, given the strength of the Reform vote, which he apparently expects to return to the Conservatives at the general election!

    Tbf in 2019 something like that did happen. I’m not convinced voters have a clue what Reform are, and in a general election people tend to go back ‘home’.It won’t be enough, but I’d be amazed if Reform took more than 5% nationally.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited February 16
    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power or time to carve a third way. He has to choose.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978
    There are rumours that Engoran might issue his decision in the NY fraud case today. Unfortunately the source is not reliable. It is Donald J Trump.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited February 16

    Jonathan said:

    So, if you were Sunak, what would you do? It’s a hard one. The long waiting game isn’t currently working for him. If anything, as time goes by his position weakens.

    Win or lose at the next election he is PM now and, presumably, doesn't much rate Labour's ability in government. So there must be a few things which he thinks ought to be done, doesn't trust Labour to do, and would feel better about himself if he could look back on doing them in twenty years time while watching the sun go down over the Pacific.

    All the desperate politicking he's been messing around with hasn't done him any good, so he may as well return to what motivated him to go into politics in the first place and concentrate on that, whatever it might be.
    You’d think so, but are there any signs of that at all? Compulsory maths for all. Increase the smoking age. Defend the hard working motorist (tm). Don’t build railways. Stop the woke trans plague.

    It’s not so much an inspiring programme for Government as a Telegraph front page on a slow news day.

    (Not, sadly, that Starmer is any more visionary.)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,746
    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,263

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    (The like for that was sympathy.)
    Hope you're OK, as it can really shake you up.
    +1

    I was once mugged in the walkway down the side of the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead by I think a difficult-to-understand druggie with a huge stick back in 2000. I still have a vivid memory; it was soon after my diabetes diagnosis.

    It was "Give Me The Notes" followed by a small nudge with (possibly - it felt that heavy) a baseball bat on the leg. The small nudge alone gave quite extensive bruising.

    Don’t know why, but I thought you meant the hospital notes, and that the druggie had some arcane use for them…

    It’s clearly too early!
    It was quite strange. I had quite a lot of money on me - just been to the cash till and was carrying 200-250.

    I just rustled £70-80 out of the top of the wallet in the pocket and he went away with it. At that point I discovered that Hampstead police station was closed, and the bruising was enough that I went to my GP to get it on the record.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978
    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for socialist conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    With Hunt basically ruling out tax cuts this morning on the back of the OBR statements he seems to have made the second choice. Which is probably good for the country, if not the Conservative party. If we are to increase a yawning deficit it really has to be for investment, not tax cuts leading to yet more consumption.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited February 16

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
    The problem is there is no unifying conservative position. The movement has bifurcated into neo right ideologues and old skool fiscal conservatives . He is clearly not the man to bring it together. So he has to choose.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,544

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
    Farage will be the next leader but one.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,746
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for socialist conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    With Hunt basically ruling out tax cuts this morning on the back of the OBR statements he seems to have made the second choice. Which is probably good for the country, if not the Conservative party. If we are to increase a yawning deficit it really has to be for investment, not tax cuts leading to yet more consumption.
    Yet he never thinks of reducing the state, which is what he should be doing. The issue isnt the country has no money, but that it is spending it unwisely.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,746

    Isn't the problem with "why doesn't Rishi use his remaining months to do something he believes in" that he doesn't believe in anything?

    Twinned with Starmer.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,946
    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power or time to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    He needs an electoral pact with the Fukkers. Withdrawal from ECHR would do it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,544
    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power or time to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    Those don't work either. Full Truss and mortgage rates implode. Full Refuk on migration and it still wont stop migration. Full Cameron and he gets replaced by the summer. What a shame.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    Claimed Russian casualties in Ukraine go through 400,000 today.

    Roll on the next zero.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,263
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Thinking of the poor sods who are the Tory councillors standing for re-election in May.

    It'll be the Dardanelles campaign.

    As they lose voters at a Gallip, polli-ing just looks worse and worse.

    The whole things getting utterly pre-Bosporus.

    Sunak is a total Turkey (that's enough - Ed)
    What a load of Istanbul
    It's a decent analogy, iirc:

    1 - The Dardanelles could have been breached, but they want away and came back later after the Germans had helped them fortify the narrows.
    2 - How many RN vessels were sunk by undetected mines.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,746
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
    The problem is there is no unifying conservative position. The movement has bifurcated into neo right ideologues and old skool fiscal conservatives . He is clearly not the man to bring it together. So he has to choose.
    The conservatives like Labour have always had to be a broad church. The ability to manage the party has always been a key skill needed in the leader. Cameron didnt have it, nor did May, Johnson made everyone bite their lips until it blew up. The conservatives need a good clear out of their MPs and to start again. Fortunately for them this seems about to be done for them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power or time to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    Those don't work either. Full Truss and mortgage rates implode. Full Refuk on migration and it still wont stop migration. Full Cameron and he gets replaced by the summer. What a shame.
    Currently he flips between the two and ends up pissing off everyone in his party, confusing the electorate and looking shifty.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,876

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power or time to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    Those don't work either. Full Truss and mortgage rates implode. Full Refuk on migration and it still wont stop migration. Full Cameron and he gets replaced by the summer. What a shame.
    If only there was someone in the cabinet who could pull off "Full Cameron"...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    Isn't it quite typical in a byelection for the winning party not to increase their number of votes, even if winning by a large margin, because turnout is so much lower? I think this is a pretty poor result for the Conservatives and a good one for Labour. It was previously a very safe Tory seat so whether Labour holds it at a general election may well be doubtful, but does it need to win this seat to get a decent majority?
    It does not, no.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,929
    Smart51 said:

    The rise in Reform in the polls is not the mirage some thought it might be. Yesterday's by-elections are quite in line with Reform's polling. It spells bad news for the Tories as most pundits have believed that some of the Reform vote would "return home". It would seem less likely now.

    Alot hinges on if they stand in every seat.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,929

    Isn't the problem with "why doesn't Rishi use his remaining months to do something he believes in" that he doesn't believe in anything?

    He clearly has some beliefs. His problem is he is just shit at politics.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,929
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power or time to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    He needs an electoral pact with the Fukkers. Withdrawal from ECHR would do it.
    But then he loses the centrist one nation lot to the Limp Dems and Labour.

    He is in a real pickle.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
    That would be novel with this bunch of no users Alan. Hope all well with you and family.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,919
    ...

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
    I suspect your idea of "Conservative" is my idea of "extreme". That's the last thing either the nation or right leaning voters need.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    Fun fact.

    Labour votes in Dudley West

    1992 general election - 28,940

    1994 by-election 28,400

    So last night Labour got more votes in the by-election than they did at the general election.
    That's a difficult one to analyse as Dudley West was replaced by three constituencies in 1997.

    I'm not in denial Labour is doing well; I am just saying that the reason they captured this seat was due to a strike/ collapse of the Conservative vote (which by and large did not go to them).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    I think you might be venturing into the realm of wishful thinking. History suggests otherwise . It took 16 years for the Tories to come back in Dudley. Labour polled the same vote in the 1994 by election as they did in the 1992 general.

    I’m afraid to say that these results are not good for your team.
    Nonsense, I don't do wishful thinking.

    And I recognise these results are not good for my team. You're missing the point.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,746
    Eabhal said:

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    No, the OBR is the only good idea that Osborne ever had. It is a check on the Treasury's tendency towards expedient forecasts and is trusted by financial markets, hence ensuring we pay less to issue debt. Did you notice what happened to Gilt yields when Truss tried to sideline it?
    LOL

    from memory youre a forecaster yourself. I see no advantage in having duff forecasts from the OBR rather than the Treasury. As someone said there are a range of forecasters out there and they will all be wrong. It is as simple as pick your model and cross your fingers.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/19/uk-fiscal-watchdog-obr-admits-errors-inflation-forecasting-high-energy-prices
    The Truss episode proves the value of the OBR. The process of exposing your data, sums and assumptions to an external body is enough to inspire some additional confidence. The markets might have suspected they were going to be "brave" - the lack of scrutiny proved it.

    They also assess the impact of policy changes on the future fiscal position, debt and interest rates, which is something that no government gives a damn about in an election year. It's in our interest that someone is looking at the 5 and 10 year picture too, even if it's a rough guess.
    The Truss episode only proves that "process" has taken over from people managing issues. As a result we end up with
    a kind of ghastly groupthink. The OBR is no more "independent" minded that its competitors in the Treasury. Its just more noise in the system when we need less.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,466

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    And I suspect those 8 voters all post on PB .
    That's more like one or two in the UK, and half a dozen proxy overseas votes from people who think they're being voted for the Natural Law Party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for socialist conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    With Hunt basically ruling out tax cuts this morning on the back of the OBR statements he seems to have made the second choice. Which is probably good for the country, if not the Conservative party. If we are to increase a yawning deficit it really has to be for investment, not tax cuts leading to yet more consumption.
    Yet he never thinks of reducing the state, which is what he should be doing. The issue isnt the country has no money, but that it is spending it unwisely.
    Spending on a lot of areas was trimmed severely during the Osborne period in particular. Spending on health continues to rise as we get older, fatter and more demanding. Spending on defence needs to rise to pay for all the ammunition required by Ukraine and to modernise our forces in respect of drones. Debt interest is a major cost and is rising as the deficits accumulate. The country is not spending enough on infrastructure or on new housing.

    I agree that in an ideal world the State would be spending less of our money. I also agree that we get damn poor value for the spend. But when you go through the big ticket items it is hard to see where significant money can be saved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    edited February 16
    Clearly a bad night for the Tories losing both by elections on big swings. Labour will be pleased to win them although they failed to get over 50% in either seat.

    The big winners of the night though were Reform who took third place and over 10% of the vote in both seats beating the LDs and Greens too. Indeed in Kingswood the combined Tory and Reform vote was bigger than the Labour vote.

    Sunak must therefore continue to focus on stopping the boats, getting his Rwanda plan implemented and if not cutting tax further in the budget at least having tax cuts in the manifesto. Another leadership challenge now is pointless, no alternative leader would do much better except fractionally maybe Mordaunt.

    The focus should be inflation and interest rates
    down further, then cutting tax and growth and cutting immigration also using new tougher points system
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,466
    mwadams said:

    IanB2 said:

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    The name makes it difficult to abolish?

    It could start a trend; they could make the FCO the Department for World Peace and BIS the Department for Prosperity. Who could risk being seen to abolish those?
    Like turning the War Office into the MoD.
    Or the renaming to give the Scotland Office.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 778

    Isn't the problem with "why doesn't Rishi use his remaining months to do something he believes in" that he doesn't believe in anything?

    Twinned with Starmer.
    Starmer believes he should be the next Prime Minister. As a motivating animus it is enough, for now.

    On topic: I think replacing Sunak now, unless it's with a caretaker PM appointed by acclimation (Cameron, Hague or May) who actually then goes on to Govern noticeably well, could be absolutely fatal to the Tories. Hell, even replacing him in this manner is not risk free.

    I support Labour today and so I would obviously think this but they should just call a GE.
  • Isn't the simple truth that the majority of people are utterly sick of the Tory party? I know this pisses off the remaining handful of Tories - who are right and everyone else is wrong - but the public just want shut of you.

    The truly odd is that in 2019 the parliamentary party went populist. An influx of real world people who don't live in the hooray henry fantasy worlds traditionally inhabited by shire Tories and the like.

    There should have been enough head screwed on blue collar Tories to steer the party away from this mess. Yet in practice it has been the opposite - some of the kookier cheerleaders for ELE are the very same 2019 intake who understand what having a job is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,042

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    Part of the Cult of Process is the belief that big reports by an “external body” make things better. Out sourcing your thinking.
    LOL, as opposed to the exit economic competence of the Truss administration that chose to ignore the OBR?
    Not out sourcing your thinking isn’t a guarantee that your thinking will be any better.

    You need some actual domain expertise and competence *somewhere*.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
    The problem is there is no unifying conservative position. The movement has bifurcated into neo right ideologues and old skool fiscal conservatives . He is clearly not the man to bring it together. So he has to choose.
    The conservatives like Labour have always had to be a broad church. The ability to manage the party has always been a key skill needed in the leader. Cameron didnt have it, nor did May, Johnson made everyone bite their lips until it blew up. The conservatives need a good clear out of their MPs and to start again. Fortunately for them this seems about to be done for them.
    The problems are exacerbated by the right wing ideologues don’t have any compelling ideas* and the dull managerial types aren’t particularly competent (even if they are dull).

    * Truss might think she is a thought leader, but she is bringing nothing to the table aper from cliches. Compare her to the sort of work that Keith Joseph (etc) behind Thatcher and the contrast is stark.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,263
    Have we debated the recent Yougov MRP poll?

    Looking I see that Ashfield and Mansfield are both down as going Labour, but Newark stays Conservative.

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,132

    Isn't the simple truth that the majority of people are utterly sick of the Tory party? I know this pisses off the remaining handful of Tories - who are right and everyone else is wrong - but the public just want shut of you.

    The truly odd is that in 2019 the parliamentary party went populist. An influx of real world people who don't live in the hooray henry fantasy worlds traditionally inhabited by shire Tories and the like.

    There should have been enough head screwed on blue collar Tories to steer the party away from this mess. Yet in practice it has been the opposite - some of the kookier cheerleaders for ELE are the very same 2019 intake who understand what having a job is.

    I don't think much of the 2019 intake have any belief in Parliament as an institution in which they really have a stake. They will, in the most part, depart at the next election and have behaved accordingly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So, Labour have their Dudley West of this electoral cycle. Results hint at Starmer getting a whopping majority with Lab's vote increasing slightly but the Tory vote completely cratering.

    Lab 13 million, Tories 8.

    For all the noise, Labour got almost exactly the same number of votes in Wellingborough as they did in GE2019.

    Now, there will be some swing disguised in that but it basically looks like to me that virtually all the Labour voters turned out whereas the Conservative voters went on strike, to Reform or a few to independents.

    That is not a seat Labour will be able to hold for long.
    I think you might be venturing into the realm of wishful thinking. History suggests otherwise . It took 16 years for the Tories to come back in Dudley. Labour polled the same vote in the 1994 by election as they did in the 1992 general.

    I’m afraid to say that these results are not good for your team.
    Nonsense, I don't do wishful thinking.

    And I recognise these results are not good for my team. You're missing the point.
    I got your point. The evidence suggests you are incorrect.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,956

    Isn't the problem with "why doesn't Rishi use his remaining months to do something he believes in" that he doesn't believe in anything?

    I think that's unfair. Certainly some people will be motivated by nothing other than personal aggrandisement, and be ready to drop any and all political pledges previously made in their single-minded pursuit for power, but I try to give people the benefit of the doubt , and perhaps there were things that motivated a young Sunak to give his time to politics.

    I think it's extremely corrosive for politics to believe that all politicians are only self-interested, and have no public-spirited motivation at all. That sort of cynicism is not all that many steps away from Trumpism, really. I think it's necessary for both sides in politics to be motivated by their view of the public good, and to acknowledge that the other side are similarly motivated, if we're to keep democracy functioning.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,466

    And on that Torygraph header is one of the main reasons the Tories are done.

    The collapse of the NHS and in particular General Practice, on their watch, affects every single one of us. And amid a cost of living crisis, private healthcare is no alternative.

    And their idea of a front page photo is a sort of, erm, idea of a butcher's H&S gear.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    ...

    Jonathan said:

    So what can Sunak do? It’s really hard.

    He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.

    * Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise.
    * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,

    The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.


    How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
    I suspect your idea of "Conservative" is my idea of "extreme". That's the last thing either the nation or right leaning voters need.
    Well, you would say that, wouldn't you.

    The problem is that the Conservatives haven't delivered, and that is what is suppressing their vote.

    Their supporters expect good economic growth, lower taxes, controlled immigration and space to grow home/wealth ownership.

    It's not about being extreme, it's about delivering what's promised.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041
    .
    Eabhal said:

    I really dont understand why Hunt just doesnt get rid of the OBR. Its yet another piece of Osborne stupidity which does nothing but produce unreliable forecasts ( and has itself admitted as much )in competition with all the other unrelable forecasters. That Rachel Reeves has decided to ransom her economic policies to its erratic performance is going to be something she will regret.

    No, the OBR is the only good idea that Osborne ever had. It is a check on the Treasury's tendency towards expedient forecasts and is trusted by financial markets, hence ensuring we pay less to issue debt. Did you notice what happened to Gilt yields when Truss tried to sideline it?
    LOL

    from memory youre a forecaster yourself. I see no advantage in having duff forecasts from the OBR rather than the Treasury. As someone said there are a range of forecasters out there and they will all be wrong. It is as simple as pick your model and cross your fingers.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/19/uk-fiscal-watchdog-obr-admits-errors-inflation-forecasting-high-energy-prices
    The Truss episode proves the value of the OBR. The process of exposing your data, sums and assumptions to an external body is enough to inspire some additional confidence. The markets might have suspected they were going to be "brave" - the lack of scrutiny proved it.

    They also assess the impact of policy changes on the future fiscal position, debt and interest rates, which is something that no government gives a damn about in an election year. It's in our interest that someone is looking at the 5 and 10 year picture too, even if it's a rough guess.
    The point of the OBR isn't the accuracy of their forecasts, but the consistency of analysis of government spending plans.

    Those who would prefer the Treasury to mark its own homework tend to be those whose party is in government.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,466
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly a bad night for the Tories losing both by elections on big swings. Labour will be pleased to win them although they failed to get over 50% in either seat.

    The big winners of the night though were Reform who took third place and over 10% of the vote in both seats beating the LDs and Greens too. Indeed in Kingswood the combined Tory and Reform vote was bigger than the Labour vote.

    Sunak must therefore continue to focus on stopping the boats, getting his Rwanda plan implemented and if not cutting tax further in the budget at least having tax cuts in the manifesto. Another leadership challenge now is pointless, no alternative leader would do much better except fractionally maybe Mordaunt.

    The focus should be inflation and interest rates
    down further, then cutting tax and growth and cutting immigration also using new tougher points system

    So if the Tories get their vote down to about 11-12% they'll be the big winners?
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