A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
This story manages to encapsulate nearly everything wrong with modern Britain. Exploited immigrant Labour, arrogant rich people, bad food and all wrapped up in a Social Media lynch mob.
What more is there to say about us as a nation?
That we are quick to jump on any seemingly outrageous story whereas it is very likely that there is more to it than what was reported.
The story is so simple I expect there is nothing more to it.
You have a cleaner eating a sandwich when they probably shouldn’t have done, it being reported to management and management reacting to the report.
There are probably reasons for every part of it but the end result seems to be an overreaction that could have been way better handled
A spokesperson for Devonshires told ROF, “Devonshires did not make a formal complaint against Gabriela or ask for any action to be taken against her. Total Clean carried out their own investigation and the decision to dismiss Gabriela was taken without any input or influence from Devonshires whatsoever. This is a private matter between Total Clean and Gabriela, but we have made clear to Total Clean that we would not object, as we never have done, to Gabriela attending and working on our premises if Total Clean changes its position".
The key question being: who blabbed.
Here's what I think happened. Someone in facilities/general office at Devonshires told his contact at Total Clean (who only deal with facilities/GO - never going near a partner) that he saw the cleaner taking the sandwich. Total Clean react by firing her for fear of upsetting the only people at Devonshires they deal with. No one at partner level at Devonshires heard anything about it until this morning (no 'formal complaint') and today the partners, PR, and marketing are likely losing their shit at facilities.
Maybe they could fast track Gabriela to partnership. It is what the mob wants.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
This story manages to encapsulate nearly everything wrong with modern Britain. Exploited immigrant Labour, arrogant rich people, bad food and all wrapped up in a Social Media lynch mob.
What more is there to say about us as a nation?
That we are quick to jump on any seemingly outrageous story whereas it is very likely that there is more to it than what was reported.
The story is so simple I expect there is nothing more to it.
You have a cleaner eating a sandwich when they probably shouldn’t have done, it being reported to management and management reacting to the report.
There are probably reasons for every part of it but the end result seems to be an overreaction that could have been way better handled
A spokesperson for Devonshires told ROF, “Devonshires did not make a formal complaint against Gabriela or ask for any action to be taken against her. Total Clean carried out their own investigation and the decision to dismiss Gabriela was taken without any input or influence from Devonshires whatsoever. This is a private matter between Total Clean and Gabriela, but we have made clear to Total Clean that we would not object, as we never have done, to Gabriela attending and working on our premises if Total Clean changes its position".
The key question being: who blabbed.
Here's what I think happened. Someone in facilities/general office at Devonshires told his contact at Total Clean (who only deal with facilities/GO - never going near a partner) that he saw the cleaner taking the sandwich. Total Clean react by firing her for fear of upsetting the only people at Devonshires they deal with. No one at partner level at Devonshires heard anything about it until this morning (no 'formal complaint') and today the partners, PR, and marketing are likely losing their shit at facilities.
Maybe they could fast track Gabriela to partnership. It is what the mob wants.
I could make a snarky comment about the Devonshires' partnership and this point but I won't. They are doing the Lord's work by pursuing the man who allegedly bought by former firm with funds appropriated from his client account, then using my firm's client account to buy another one, and several houses.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
But that still doesn’t stop the VoNC unless Brady drops hints and Rishi decides let’s hold the election in 5 weeks time.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
In a few years it might be impressive enough to render convincing faces, and have the people not look like they are floating weirdly up in the air over a studio flat with a picture of what might be snow on it, for 17 seconds.
HOWEVER that's just pointing out the problems.
This looks like it is *amazing* for previz and really optimize that part of the process. Like, now, today, as-is.
And that's the kind of thing at which this generation of generative AI is going to dominate.
Have you checked out the other videos?
For some reason they chose one of the worst in that tweet
There are others which are vastly superior, mind blowing
"I don’t even know what to say…
These clips generated by OpenAI’s Sora model have me speechless.
We knew good AI text-to-video would come, but this quickly? Unreal.
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
The AI discussion around art misses the point of what culture is. It is fundamentally a human thing. You can't replace it with AI.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.
* Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for socialist conservativism and make a lot of noise. * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,
The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.
With Hunt basically ruling out tax cuts this morning on the back of the OBR statements he seems to have made the second choice. Which is probably good for the country, if not the Conservative party. If we are to increase a yawning deficit it really has to be for investment, not tax cuts leading to yet more consumption.
Yet he never thinks of reducing the state, which is what he should be doing. The issue isnt the country has no money, but that it is spending it unwisely.
Spending on a lot of areas was trimmed severely during the Osborne period in particular. Spending on health continues to rise as we get older, fatter and more demanding. Spending on defence needs to rise to pay for all the ammunition required by Ukraine and to modernise our forces in respect of drones. Debt interest is a major cost and is rising as the deficits accumulate. The country is not spending enough on infrastructure or on new housing.
I agree that in an ideal world the State would be spending less of our money. I also agree that we get damn poor value for the spend. But when you go through the big ticket items it is hard to see where significant money can be saved.
Health really is a disaster, if you take a step back.
We have high tax rates and large cuts to other areas of spending, yet the NHS remains a top priority for voters, there is an enormous waiting list and there are millions on health-related out-of-work benefits.
Going private is simply jumping the queue while injecting more money and resources into the sector - see dentistry. Innovations like dementia drugs, while absolutely brilliant for patients, will further drive spending in healthcare whether it's public or not.
POLITICS. Labour might be in for 10 years. The demographic profile, while historically only a minor contributor to increased health spending, is at its worst over the next 15 years as the Boomers hit their 70s and 80s. They will need to decide very quickly if the NHS is expected to absorb these extra pressures. If so... it's tax rises. Big ones.
Funding is not the problem with the NHS; we've poured massive amounts of (non-covid) money into it over the past couple years and productivity is still below where it was before.
Capital spend is part of it, but the other part is that we've imported tens of thousands of very low quality third world trained medics and nurses to replace the people we've spent tens to hundreds of thousands training. Turns out having a lot of people who struggle communicating in British English, sometimes have fraudulently obtained qualifications and are mainly using it as a route to citizenship isn't productivity enhancing!
I have, probably, had as much direct involvement with the NHS as anyone on this forum since my DVT in mid October to my pacemaker operation last week and with more interaction needed over the coming months I simply do not recognise the comment you make in the last sentence of your final paragraph
From the multiple visits to my surgery, to two emergency overnighters in A & E and admission to hospital itself, every single member of staff has been kind, caring, and whilst there were many nationalities every single one conversed and communicated with me well
The fact is that the demand far outstrips the staffs ability to meet that demand and nobody has the answer, be it the English, Welsh or Scottish NHS
Yes, it is nonsense.
Immigrant medical staff have to pass both a medical exam and an English language exam, including colloquial language in order to get registration. It typically takes six months or a year to do so.
I have no doubt whatsoever that immigrant NHS staff are amongst the most diligent, hardworking, and caring employees of our health service. It is the management, structure, "old and bold" usually British staff that are fucked up, usually couldn't care less, really, and ensure that if you go into hospital you are taking your life into your own hands, even if you only went in to have a bunion removed.
I have no doubt whatsoever that uninformed bigotry against groups of people, is still bigotry. No matter which group is being targeted.
I’m sure there is some data out there about the relative performance of NHS staff by origin.
Btw, this is from a little while ago (tried sending a DM but it repeatedly failed):
Mr. Ghedebrav, sorry for the slow reply, was doing a spot of work. I'm homebrewing my own thing, though the setting's fairly straightforward, a mix of classic fantasy and Norse Scandinavia. Edited extra bit: while my first campaign, I've watched a lot of lore videos and related stuff so luckily I had a running start which has made things a little easier than they might be.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
I’ve never got the logic behind if we delay things something may come along and get us some votes.
It’s way more likely when things are going badly that the opposite will occur, all the news will be bad and continually chip away another 1% of the Tory party base.
See for example this morning’s story about no longer being able to reduce income tax because of the GDP issues
He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.
* Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for socialist conservativism and make a lot of noise. * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,
The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.
With Hunt basically ruling out tax cuts this morning on the back of the OBR statements he seems to have made the second choice. Which is probably good for the country, if not the Conservative party. If we are to increase a yawning deficit it really has to be for investment, not tax cuts leading to yet more consumption.
Yet he never thinks of reducing the state, which is what he should be doing. The issue isnt the country has no money, but that it is spending it unwisely.
Spending on a lot of areas was trimmed severely during the Osborne period in particular. Spending on health continues to rise as we get older, fatter and more demanding. Spending on defence needs to rise to pay for all the ammunition required by Ukraine and to modernise our forces in respect of drones. Debt interest is a major cost and is rising as the deficits accumulate. The country is not spending enough on infrastructure or on new housing.
I agree that in an ideal world the State would be spending less of our money. I also agree that we get damn poor value for the spend. But when you go through the big ticket items it is hard to see where significant money can be saved.
Health really is a disaster, if you take a step back.
We have high tax rates and large cuts to other areas of spending, yet the NHS remains a top priority for voters, there is an enormous waiting list and there are millions on health-related out-of-work benefits.
Going private is simply jumping the queue while injecting more money and resources into the sector - see dentistry. Innovations like dementia drugs, while absolutely brilliant for patients, will further drive spending in healthcare whether it's public or not.
POLITICS. Labour might be in for 10 years. The demographic profile, while historically only a minor contributor to increased health spending, is at its worst over the next 15 years as the Boomers hit their 70s and 80s. They will need to decide very quickly if the NHS is expected to absorb these extra pressures. If so... it's tax rises. Big ones.
Funding is not the problem with the NHS; we've poured massive amounts of (non-covid) money into it over the past couple years and productivity is still below where it was before.
Capital spend is part of it, but the other part is that we've imported tens of thousands of very low quality third world trained medics and nurses to replace the people we've spent tens to hundreds of thousands training. Turns out having a lot of people who struggle communicating in British English, sometimes have fraudulently obtained qualifications and are mainly using it as a route to citizenship isn't productivity enhancing!
I have, probably, had as much direct involvement with the NHS as anyone on this forum since my DVT in mid October to my pacemaker operation last week and with more interaction needed over the coming months I simply do not recognise the comment you make in the last sentence of your final paragraph
From the multiple visits to my surgery, to two emergency overnighters in A & E and admission to hospital itself, every single member of staff has been kind, caring, and whilst there were many nationalities every single one conversed and communicated with me well
The fact is that the demand far outstrips the staffs ability to meet that demand and nobody has the answer, be it the English, Welsh or Scottish NHS
Yes, it is nonsense.
Immigrant medical staff have to pass both a medical exam and an English language exam, including colloquial language in order to get registration. It typically takes six months or a year to do so.
I have no doubt whatsoever that immigrant NHS staff are amongst the most diligent, hardworking, and caring employees of our health service. It is the management, structure, "old and bold" usually British staff that are fucked up, usually couldn't care less, really, and ensure that if you go into hospital you are taking your life into your own hands, even if you only went in to have a bunion removed.
I have no doubt whatsoever that uninformed bigotry against groups of people, is still bigotry. No matter which group is being targeted.
I’m sure there is some data out there about the relative performance of NHS staff by origin.
You think? That would be a "brave" survey. You lot where do you come from...all those from the Philippines stand over there...etc
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
This story manages to encapsulate nearly everything wrong with modern Britain. Exploited immigrant Labour, arrogant rich people, bad food and all wrapped up in a Social Media lynch mob.
What more is there to say about us as a nation?
That we are quick to jump on any seemingly outrageous story whereas it is very likely that there is more to it than what was reported.
The story is so simple I expect there is nothing more to it.
You have a cleaner eating a sandwich when they probably shouldn’t have done, it being reported to management and management reacting to the report.
There are probably reasons for every part of it but the end result seems to be an overreaction that could have been way better handled
A spokesperson for Devonshires told ROF, “Devonshires did not make a formal complaint against Gabriela or ask for any action to be taken against her. Total Clean carried out their own investigation and the decision to dismiss Gabriela was taken without any input or influence from Devonshires whatsoever. This is a private matter between Total Clean and Gabriela, but we have made clear to Total Clean that we would not object, as we never have done, to Gabriela attending and working on our premises if Total Clean changes its position".
The key question being: who blabbed.
Here's what I think happened. Someone in facilities/general office at Devonshires told his contact at Total Clean (who only deal with facilities/GO - never going near a partner) that he saw the cleaner taking the sandwich. Total Clean react by firing her for fear of upsetting the only people at Devonshires they deal with. No one at partner level at Devonshires heard anything about it until this morning (no 'formal complaint') and today the partners, PR, and marketing are likely losing their shit at facilities.
Maybe they could fast track Gabriela to partnership. It is what the mob wants.
I could make a snarky comment about the Devonshires' partnership and this point but I won't. They are doing the Lord's work by pursuing the man who allegedly bought by former firm with funds appropriated from his client account, then using my firm's client account to buy another one, and several houses.
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
It cannot be stopped
Think about it. The studios that are still using directors, cameramen, producers, musicians, actors, will all go out of business, because tiny studios with one good idea and a decent computer will be able to make entire and brilliant movies for about 30p
It's like trying to stop the spinning Jenny or electricity, imagine if Luddite British weavers had managed to get a law forbidding the use of powered looms, the French would have done it and destroyed the British textile industry overnight
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
I’ve never got the logic behind if we delay things something may come along and get us some votes.
It’s way more likely when things are going badly that the opposite will occur and all the news will be bad and continually chip away another 1% of the Tory party base
That's not the logic Richi is using.
His logic is 'every day I am PM, until I call the election'
That's why it is in the interests of the remainder of the current Tory MPs to defenestrate him, ASAP
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
We knew exactly why he got away with it. He had lashing of charm and was super engaging, why, you could almost believe him at times. Which brings us onto why we really disliked him. He lied like a cheap NAAFI watch and was wholly unfit to be PM.
That said, I would rather have had him than any other living British politician in charge during COVID and he did plenty wrong as it is over that time, so go figure.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
What about the presidential pardon.
Plus of course it is only a timing issue.
Thanksgiving US Presidential pardons don't help UK turkeys still alive at Christmas.
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
This story manages to encapsulate nearly everything wrong with modern Britain. Exploited immigrant Labour, arrogant rich people, bad food and all wrapped up in a Social Media lynch mob.
What more is there to say about us as a nation?
That we are quick to jump on any seemingly outrageous story whereas it is very likely that there is more to it than what was reported.
The story is so simple I expect there is nothing more to it.
You have a cleaner eating a sandwich when they probably shouldn’t have done, it being reported to management and management reacting to the report.
There are probably reasons for every part of it but the end result seems to be an overreaction that could have been way better handled
A spokesperson for Devonshires told ROF, “Devonshires did not make a formal complaint against Gabriela or ask for any action to be taken against her. Total Clean carried out their own investigation and the decision to dismiss Gabriela was taken without any input or influence from Devonshires whatsoever. This is a private matter between Total Clean and Gabriela, but we have made clear to Total Clean that we would not object, as we never have done, to Gabriela attending and working on our premises if Total Clean changes its position".
The key question being: who blabbed.
Here's what I think happened. Someone in facilities/general office at Devonshires told his contact at Total Clean (who only deal with facilities/GO - never going near a partner) that he saw the cleaner taking the sandwich. Total Clean react by firing her for fear of upsetting the only people at Devonshires they deal with. No one at partner level at Devonshires heard anything about it until this morning (no 'formal complaint') and today the partners, PR, and marketing are likely losing their shit at facilities.
Maybe they could fast track Gabriela to partnership. It is what the mob wants.
I could make a snarky comment about the Devonshires' partnership and this point but I won't. They are doing the Lord's work by pursuing the man who allegedly bought by former firm with funds appropriated from his client account, then using my firm's client account to buy another one, and several houses.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
Depends how you frame the question, though.
Running in December buys the current government seven more months in office.
The cost of that is some (30? 50? 100?) Conservative seats in the next Parliament, but why should the current management be concerned by that?
And office, even if it's without power, is a helluva drug.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
What about the presidential pardon.
Plus of course it is only a timing issue.
Thanksgiving US Presidential pardons don't help UK turkeys still alive at Christmas.
I mean if we're going to torture the analogy. All turkeys get killed at Christmas so why would any Turkey choose to die in May. That's an extra few months of life. We are all going to die but as of this moment I don't feel like stuffing myself to death with smarties to end it all.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
I’ve never got the logic behind if we delay things something may come along and get us some votes.
It’s way more likely when things are going badly that the opposite will occur and all the news will be bad and continually chip away another 1% of the Tory party base
That's not the logic Richi is using.
His logic is 'every day I am PM, until I call the election'
That's why it is in the interests of the remainder of the current Tory MPs to defenestrate him, ASAP
Defenestration is not an option. There is such a pile of bodies under the window, it means Rishi would have a soft landing - and climb back in the window.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
And Barbara Dickson & Coldplay fans won’t like it either
Pressure will mount on Rishi Sunak after these by-election results ie change tack or get out. But my understanding is from those I’ve spoken to that local election results in May are when critics will go full throttle on plotting & demand he steps down
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
This story manages to encapsulate nearly everything wrong with modern Britain. Exploited immigrant Labour, arrogant rich people, bad food and all wrapped up in a Social Media lynch mob.
What more is there to say about us as a nation?
That we are quick to jump on any seemingly outrageous story whereas it is very likely that there is more to it than what was reported.
The story is so simple I expect there is nothing more to it.
You have a cleaner eating a sandwich when they probably shouldn’t have done, it being reported to management and management reacting to the report.
There are probably reasons for every part of it but the end result seems to be an overreaction that could have been way better handled
A spokesperson for Devonshires told ROF, “Devonshires did not make a formal complaint against Gabriela or ask for any action to be taken against her. Total Clean carried out their own investigation and the decision to dismiss Gabriela was taken without any input or influence from Devonshires whatsoever. This is a private matter between Total Clean and Gabriela, but we have made clear to Total Clean that we would not object, as we never have done, to Gabriela attending and working on our premises if Total Clean changes its position".
The key question being: who blabbed.
Here's what I think happened. Someone in facilities/general office at Devonshires told his contact at Total Clean (who only deal with facilities/GO - never going near a partner) that he saw the cleaner taking the sandwich. Total Clean react by firing her for fear of upsetting the only people at Devonshires they deal with. No one at partner level at Devonshires heard anything about it until this morning (no 'formal complaint') and today the partners, PR, and marketing are likely losing their shit at facilities.
Maybe they could fast track Gabriela to partnership. It is what the mob wants.
I could make a snarky comment about the Devonshires' partnership and this point but I won't. They are doing the Lord's work by pursuing the man who allegedly bought by former firm with funds appropriated from his client account, then using my firm's client account to buy another one, and several houses.
Say what?!
For my sins I worked at Ince and then, following an ill-starred acquisition, for four months at "Axiom Ince". Brief explainer is here -
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
The truth is that his gimmick was Brexit, and two thirds of the country now hate it. Bringing back Queen/Boris wouldn't change that.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
What about the presidential pardon.
Plus of course it is only a timing issue.
Thanksgiving US Presidential pardons don't help UK turkeys still alive at Christmas.
I mean if we're going to torture the analogy. All turkeys get killed at Christmas so why would any Turkey choose to die in May. That's an extra few months of life. We are all going to die but as of this moment I don't feel like stuffing myself to death with smarties to end it all.
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
The AI discussion around art misses the point of what culture is. It is fundamentally a human thing. You can't replace it with AI.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
You won't know the difference, that's the point. These are now 99.99% indistinguishable from human made videos, and in some ways vastly better, because you can get EXACTLY what you want, for pennies, in seconds
This is terrifyingly good. As the guy says in the vid linked by @viewcode this is another ChatGPT or Dall-E moment, except possibly even more scary
AI will create entire new realities, ravishingly beautiful but deeply unnerving
Mr. kle4, it's possibly that the inherently social nature (and popularity of home-brewing) in TTRPGs will make it resistant to that. We'll see.
One aspect of work (keeping it vague) with a client was going to be done by staff but using AI, until one person pointed out it actually took longer to use AI for it (because there was a high volume of small text amounts). In some areas of work, that will stop AI being used, because it actually increases the time it takes to do something compared to a human doing it by themselves.
One thing the computer-generated Art does is that it reduces the barrier to entry for home-brewed creations to look professional.
One guy writes some rules and then they can get a LLM to write some background stories for them, and then some computer-generated art, and you have a product that looks almost as good as the stuff created by companies.
Someone home-brewing things obviously doesn't have a budget for an artist, so it's harder to object to, and that's one of the ways that its use will be normalised, and ultimately drive greater competition.
Pressure will mount on Rishi Sunak after these by-election results ie change tack or get out. But my understanding is from those I’ve spoken to that local election results in May are when critics will go full throttle on plotting & demand he steps down
They'll wait until it's too late and then they'll fail. The August Coup, the July Plot... there's a timing to these things.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
It will absolutely be the Tories that at some point do an about turn in opposition and say it was Labour that crashed the economy and the EU is the way to resolve it.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
The only candidate shameless enough to try that would be BoZo
It would be entertaining to see what the fanbois did then.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
The truth is that his gimmick was Brexit, and two thirds of the country now hate it. Bringing back Queen/Boris wouldn't change that.
Boris was a good salesman with something to sell, that people wanted to buy. Rishi is a bad salesman who is out of stock.
History is full of characters who looked like they were down and out, written off but came back and won again. Most likely the data and opinions of their opponents said they couldn’t do it, but they did. One thing I’m quite confident of; Sir Keir & Labour strategists are mighty pleased not to have to face Boris in the GE campaign
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
The AI discussion around art misses the point of what culture is. It is fundamentally a human thing. You can't replace it with AI.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
You won't know the difference, that's the point. These are now 99.99% indistinguishable from human made videos, and in some ways vastly better, because you can get EXACTLY what you want, for pennies, in seconds
This is terrifyingly good. As the guy says in the vid linked by @viewcode this is another ChatGPT or Dall-E moment, except possibly even more scary
AI will create entire new realities, ravishingly beautiful but deeply unnerving
It will start with things like fanfiction. There are masses of fan stories, and now people will be able to make fan films with them.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
In December every turkey gets culled.
In May only some of them do.
What about the presidential pardon.
Plus of course it is only a timing issue.
Thanksgiving US Presidential pardons don't help UK turkeys still alive at Christmas.
I mean if we're going to torture the analogy. All turkeys get killed at Christmas so why would any Turkey choose to die in May. That's an extra few months of life. We are all going to die but as of this moment I don't feel like stuffing myself to death with smarties to end it all.
This is PB. We are HERE to torture analogies.
Well, it's my analogy
I minted the phrase "turkeys don't vote for Christmas to be brought forward" - and I hereby give permission to @TOPPING to torture it
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
The only candidate shameless enough to try that would be BoZo
It would be entertaining to see what the fanbois did then.
I think I said that could be an idea. Not with Boris as leader, although I’m not sure he was really ever that bothered about leaving the EU really. What would Sir Keir do? Zig zag back to wanting FOM? Demand another referendum?
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
The AI discussion around art misses the point of what culture is. It is fundamentally a human thing. You can't replace it with AI.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
Yes and no. Think of the American Action Painters. They used seemingly random mechanisms to create art, having determined the initial conditions. JP set off in motion his famous paint cans and then they created the art we can see in the Tate et al today. That is the analogy of AI. We provide the initial conditions and then it creates some art. Abstract Expressionists didn't displace every other artist on the planet but took their place in the lexicon of artists. As AI-produced art no doubt will.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
And who is going to pull that one off ?
Boris is about the only Tory sufficiently devoid of principle and shame to attempt it with any kind of convincing sham-sincerity, but he wouldn't convince the like of either isam or me. Or Tory backbenchers.
It's a possible project for a Tory party suffering a second terms of semi-oblivion in opposition, but far from probable.
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
The AI discussion around art misses the point of what culture is. It is fundamentally a human thing. You can't replace it with AI.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
You won't know the difference, that's the point. These are now 99.99% indistinguishable from human made videos, and in some ways vastly better, because you can get EXACTLY what you want, for pennies, in seconds
This is terrifyingly good. As the guy says in the vid linked by @viewcode this is another ChatGPT or Dall-E moment, except possibly even more scary
AI will create entire new realities, ravishingly beautiful but deeply unnerving
It will start with things like fanfiction. There are masses of fan stories, and now people will be able to make fan films with them.
The advertising industry looks particularly fucked, as well
"Sora, give me an adorable mixed race couple playing with kittens in a lovely kitchen to show how good our pasta is"
Bingo. Done. No set, no actors, nothing, Cost: 50p
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
The only candidate shameless enough to try that would be BoZo
It would be entertaining to see what the fanbois did then.
True - and the only way the EU would accept us again is if the tories are in favour. Of course, there could be a latter day de Gaulle who might stop that.
He has to make a choice, he can no longer ride the fence.
* Go full Truss, do the tax cuts, play to the gbnews gallery on immigration, go for social conservativism and make a lot of noise. * Or full Osborne/Cameron/May. Talk about debt, austerity, sober managerialism and compassionate Conservatism. Few tax cuts,
The latter suits his persona better, but his heart seems to be in the first camp. Either way continue straddling the two makes him look silly and shifty. He cannot bluff his way through like Boris. He doesn’t have the political horse power to carve a third way. He has to choose.
How about he winds up his Party and gives the space to someone who has conservative policies ?
I suspect your idea of "Conservative" is my idea of "extreme". That's the last thing either the nation or right leaning voters need.
Well, you would say that, wouldn't you.
The problem is that the Conservatives haven't delivered, and that is what is suppressing their vote.
Their supporters expect good economic growth, lower taxes, controlled immigration and space to grow home/wealth ownership.
It's not about being extreme, it's about delivering what's promised.
Well, yes I would say, and I did say that. It is unlikely I would vote Conservative ( anyone but the Tories). However centrists like me would be more amenable to vote one-nation, feudal, mixed- economy Conservative in the face of Corbynista-Labour than we would for the racist, authoritarian policies of Tice and Farage.
I believe your definition of what Conservatives stand for is wrong.
"Good economic growth" was the mantra of Lizz Truss. Just saying it wasn't good enough, and her prescription tanked the economy.
"Lower taxes" is indeed on any Conservative wish list, but fiscal probity used to be too. Presently the two notions collide.
" Controlled immigration" is a post EU accession newbie, and political opportunism at that. During the 1950s in the quest for post-war "growth", Conservative Governments were comfortable with achieving that goal by importing workers from the Empire. Economic migration has been ongoing since the dawn of time.
"Home ownership", well why? We had a perfectly good system of local authority housing stock which worked well until the absurd "right to buy" which has now left 40% of former council house stock in the hands of private landlords or private housing associations, many of whom can't afford to maintain them. I write this from the conservatory of a just shy of a million pound property.
"Wealth ownership"? Well that brings us back down to Truss and her notion of "trickle down" economics. Now this is going to appear Communist to you, but wouldn't an equitable society where people earn a fair day's pay for a fair day's work and pay their taxes equitably, growing the economy and allowing tax pounds to be spent on a civil and civic society with decent healthcare, roads, schools, and regular bin collections, make more sense?
I know pb is quite addictive and the police never anywhere to be seen but it would surely be more prudent to complete the burglary first rather than making lengthy posts from the conservatory?
It’s damming for the Tories that Labour win big without standing for much. It’s like your wife saying she’s leaving you for another man. ‘What’s his name?’ ‘I don’t know yet.’
"I suspect a significant body of Tory MPs will think the way to salvation is chasing the 13% of Reform voters which will be a mistake."
I agree totally. Also if Sunak tries it (maybe in order to save his skin) he'll lose all credibility. If they get rid of Sunak and put someone else in (Rees-Mogg, Suella) they will gain 5% from Reform and lose 10% to Labour or LibDems depending on constituency. Sunak should go for May before things get worse for the Tories in general and himself in particular.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
The truth is that his gimmick was Brexit, and two thirds of the country now hate it. Bringing back Queen/Boris wouldn't change that.
Boris was a good salesman with something to sell, that people wanted to buy. Rishi is a bad salesman who is out of stock.
History is full of characters who looked like they were down and out, written off but came back and won again. Most likely the data and opinions of their opponents said they couldn’t do it, but they did. One thing I’m quite confident of; Sir Keir & Labour strategists are mighty pleased not to have to face Boris in the GE campaign
Boris clearly has electorable upside that Rishi does not. But he would lead us to continued disaster if in government so whats the point other than to feed his ego?
It’s damming for the Tories that Labour win big without standing for much. It’s like your wife saying she’s leaving you for another man. ‘What’s his name?’ ‘I don’t know yet.’
That's how FPTP works though.
You want to be sure of getting rid of the government, you have to vote for their principle opposition.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
And who is going to pull that one off ?
Boris is about the only Tory sufficiently devoid of principle and shame to attempt it with any kind of convincing sham-sincerity, but he wouldn't convince the like of either isam or me. Or Tory backbenchers.
It's a possible project for a Tory party suffering a second terms of semi-oblivion in opposition, but far from probable.
If we rejoined with some kind of deal where FOM was renegotiated, as Remainers told us was always possible anyway, then it wouldn’t bother me
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
The truth is that his gimmick was Brexit, and two thirds of the country now hate it. Bringing back Queen/Boris wouldn't change that.
Boris was a good salesman with something to sell, that people wanted to buy. Rishi is a bad salesman who is out of stock.
History is full of characters who looked like they were down and out, written off but came back and won again. Most likely the data and opinions of their opponents said they couldn’t do it, but they did. One thing I’m quite confident of; Sir Keir & Labour strategists are mighty pleased not to have to face Boris in the GE campaign
Boris clearly has electorable upside that Rishi does not. But he would lead us to continued disaster if in government so whats the point other than to feed his ego?
Where’s the evidence he would lead us to continued disaster? His reign was all about dealing with the pandemic. In 2019, people were saying getting out of referendum purgatory was impossible; he did that and was confronted with a problem that was impossible to imagine, then a war.
Donald Trump's empire of fraud being dismantled by corporate death penalty.
And yet if he can become President still, which he might, it won't even matter.
For every MAGA supporter incensed at their man being stiffed by the system, there'll be two independents going "Hmmmm...and they want a guy guilty of fraud to be in charge of the nation's finances?"
I do expect Judge Engoron's judgment to be excoriating of Trump. Enough will take note, even if they don't maybe notice the distinction between a civil and criminal judgment.
The criminal trial comes next month. Those who have poo-pooed the trial (for paying hush-money to porn star Stormy Daniels to hide their affair and the false accounting around it) as not being very important should have a word with the judge. From what he has said, he thinks it a VERY serious charge.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
The only candidate shameless enough to try that would be BoZo
It would be entertaining to see what the fanbois did then.
True - and the only way the EU would accept us again is if the tories are in favour. Of course, there could be a latter day de Gaulle who might stop that.
There is no need to rejoin the EU. Simply move as close as possible and get one with it. Most in the country who voted for Brexit wanted out of the shambles of the political wing of the EU (lets keep migrating parliament to keep the French happy), quite a few wanted less immigration and almost all wanted to carry on trading and travelling as before.
Now that can be seen a cherry picking, but I see it as a negotiation.
A cleaner has been fired for eating a leftover sandwich she found in a law firm’s meeting room, it has been alleged.
Gabriela, a single mother from Ecuador, cleaned the offices of Devonshires Solicitors for two years until she was summarily sacked just before Christmas by her employer, private contractor Total Clean.
Her alleged crime was to have eaten a £1.50 tuna sandwich from Tesco that had been left over from a meeting and was due to be discarded.
The breach was so abhorrent that Devonshires, whose highest-paid member received £1.68 million in 2023, allegedly complained to Total Clean, resulting in her dismissal. A spokesperson for the firm told RollOnFriday that it did not make a "formal complaint".
According to her supporters, Gabriela appealed the decision but Total Clean refused to reinstate her on the basis that “theft is theft” and because it did not want to upset Devonshires.
Supporters also appealed to the 235-lawyer firm directly, but they said it “showed no good will and refused to support Gabriela's case”.
Around 30 people protested outside Devonshires’ office this week where they handed out leaflets titled "I ATE A LEFTOVER TUNA SANDWICH AND GOT SACKED!”
The ‘Justice for Gabriela’ campaign has said her firing directly implicated Devonshires, which was “either responsible for her sacking or complicit in it”, and that while she had submitted an employment claim, tribunals “can take years to conclude and she needs a job and an income now”.
They are a shit firm if they are eating Tesco sandwiches.
This story manages to encapsulate nearly everything wrong with modern Britain. Exploited immigrant Labour, arrogant rich people, bad food and all wrapped up in a Social Media lynch mob.
What more is there to say about us as a nation?
That we are quick to jump on any seemingly outrageous story whereas it is very likely that there is more to it than what was reported.
The story is so simple I expect there is nothing more to it.
You have a cleaner eating a sandwich when they probably shouldn’t have done, it being reported to management and management reacting to the report.
There are probably reasons for every part of it but the end result seems to be an overreaction that could have been way better handled
A spokesperson for Devonshires told ROF, “Devonshires did not make a formal complaint against Gabriela or ask for any action to be taken against her. Total Clean carried out their own investigation and the decision to dismiss Gabriela was taken without any input or influence from Devonshires whatsoever. This is a private matter between Total Clean and Gabriela, but we have made clear to Total Clean that we would not object, as we never have done, to Gabriela attending and working on our premises if Total Clean changes its position".
The key question being: who blabbed.
Lawyers being lawyers. Clearly someone at their firm had a problem with the cleaner eating a leftover sandwich.
I feel bad for Sunak, I don’t think he is a bad person. But saying this is a mid term by election is pushing it
I feel bad for him too. Turns out he is not good at politics and is now in a very sticky situation. I suspect even the best PM would be finding it tough right not, but Sunak is more out of his depth than I would be batting at 4 for England.
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
The AI discussion around art misses the point of what culture is. It is fundamentally a human thing. You can't replace it with AI.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
Whoever can nail microtransactions properly, taking a penny on the dollar for one person sending money to another person, will be the next massive tech darling.
But instead they’re all trying to find ways of taking 10% or more, which people have no interest in doing.
Genuine example. I had a bet with someone on this site, which I lost. We agreed that I would buy them an Amazon voucher, because that was way easier than actually transferring money at the bank.
Donald Trump's empire of fraud being dismantled by corporate death penalty.
And yet if he can become President still, which he might, it won't even matter.
For every MAGA supporter incensed at their man being stiffed by the system, there'll be two independents going "Hmmmm...and they want a guy guilty of fraud to be in charge of the nation's finances?"
I do expect Judge Engoron's judgment to be excoriating of Trump. Enough will take note, even if they don't maybe notice the distinction between a civil and criminal judgment.
The criminal trial comes next month. Those who have poo-pooed the trial (for paying hush-money to porn star Stormy Daniels to hide their affair and the false accounting around it) as not being very important should have a word with the judge. From what he has said, he thinks it a VERY serious charge.
That would be FIRST criminal trial.
This one has .. checks notes ... 34 felony charges.
As per @SamCoatesSky - Sunak has now got the record for losing Tory-held seats in by-elections during a parliament. He's beaten John Major's legendary run in 92-97.
I got robbed last night by 2 people after getting off a night bus in Rome. The problem was I didn't expect the Metro to close as early as 11:30pm on a Thursday night. Luckily I wasn't injured when they grabbed my coat. The 2 people (who got on the bus at the same time as me) were obviously waiting for me to get off and hoping it was in an area without anyone else around, which is what happened.
It’s damming for the Tories that Labour win big without standing for much. It’s like your wife saying she’s leaving you for another man. ‘What’s his name?’ ‘I don’t know yet.’
It pretty much hits the nail on the head. The joke being the metaphor for it’s damming for the Tories not just that Labour win, but that they can do so with a completely blank cheque.
a) Really sorry to hear the news from OGH. All my best wishes OGH. I know you will have probably done this but when my mum got vascular dementia we found the Alzheimer Society incredibly useful in ways I couldn't have imagined.
b) One thread gave a hypothetical Tory outcome of just 80 seats so I went and had a look at the list and three immediately jumped out at me (Yeah I appreciate that is not likely to happen):
Farnham and Bordon - This comes out of the breakup of SW Surrey. It is an area I used to know very well politically (not going to explain why because I will dox myself). I know from talking to @NickPalmer this is the less favourable of the 2 seats created out of SW Surrey for the LDs but if the Tories are down to 80 seats I can't believe this will be one of them.
Surrey Heath - Again for reasons I won't explain I used to know this seat very well and in those days I would have said a Tory hold under any circumstance, but recently the LDs have made huge inroads. I remember the Tories holding all the Borough seats. They now only have 6 with the LDs on 24.
Breacon and Radnor - Now I have no local knowledge whatsoever on this seat, but really not a LD gain if the Tories are down to 80 seats?
I feel bad for Sunak, I don’t think he is a bad person. But saying this is a mid term by election is pushing it
I feel bad for him too. Turns out he is not good at politics and is now in a very sticky situation. I suspect even the best PM would be finding it tough right not, but Sunak is more out of his depth than I would be batting at 4 for England.
Don't feel sorry for him. He was lost the moment he made a deal with Suella. If he hadn't, he could have dropped Rwanda and governed in the style of Cameron and May. He might have lost but retained some respect. Instead, he has pursued cheap votes from the fringe. As a result, he confused everyone and looks shifty. No flowers.
Btw, this is from a little while ago (tried sending a DM but it repeatedly failed):
Mr. Ghedebrav, sorry for the slow reply, was doing a spot of work. I'm homebrewing my own thing, though the setting's fairly straightforward, a mix of classic fantasy and Norse Scandinavia. Edited extra bit: while my first campaign, I've watched a lot of lore videos and related stuff so luckily I had a running start which has made things a little easier than they might be.
Excellent - good luck with it ongoing. I personally find homebrewing much easier than a pre-written adventure; it's much easier to improvise and I also find the pre-written stuff often needs a lot of thinking and thought beforehand (surprising how many mistakes, logic loops, absent key pieces etc. are in them). Also cheaper!
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
DELETED double post.
As that sage of political analysis @Leon put it so well: It's February. A Turkey doesn't vote to bring forward Christmas to May.
Degrees of loss though, and I'm starting to think there's a real chance of a VONC (per thread header).
I'm not saying he will - as we know, Rishi's defining characteristic as PM is how bad he is at politics.
They need a leader who has an ideology that is coherent and robust, and who sticks to it, rather than try a series of sensationalist gimmicks.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
The truth is that his gimmick was Brexit, and two thirds of the country now hate it. Bringing back Queen/Boris wouldn't change that.
Boris was a good salesman with something to sell, that people wanted to buy. Rishi is a bad salesman who is out of stock.
History is full of characters who looked like they were down and out, written off but came back and won again. Most likely the data and opinions of their opponents said they couldn’t do it, but they did. One thing I’m quite confident of; Sir Keir & Labour strategists are mighty pleased not to have to face Boris in the GE campaign
Boris clearly has electorable upside that Rishi does not. But he would lead us to continued disaster if in government so whats the point other than to feed his ego?
Where’s the evidence he would lead us to continued disaster? His reign was all about dealing with the pandemic. In 2019, people were saying getting out of referendum purgatory was impossible; he did that and was confronted with a problem that was impossible to imagine, then a war.
His way of gaining support was to promise each faction exactly what they wanted to hear. That was fine when he was a backbencher but a nightmare once he took office and couldn't deliver. It led, inevitably, to Tory party factionalisation and petty disputes that take up all the political energy and stop us addressing our problems and opportunities, and continue to afflict us long after he has left centre stage.
In a presidential system, it is possible he could make it work, but reliant on a parliamentary party with a wide range of often opposing views within it, he has close to zero chance of success in governing.
I feel bad for Sunak, I don’t think he is a bad person. But saying this is a mid term by election is pushing it
I feel bad for him too. Turns out he is not good at politics and is now in a very sticky situation. I suspect even the best PM would be finding it tough right not, but Sunak is more out of his depth than I would be batting at 4 for England.
Don't feel sorry for him. He was lost the moment he made a deal with Suella. If he hadn't, he could have dropped Rwanda and governed in the style of Cameron and May. He might have lost but retained some respect. Instead, he has pursued cheap votes from the fringe. As a result, he confused everyone and looks shifty. No flowers.
Deep disappointment rather than sympathy here. Thought he would be (relatively) good.
a) Really sorry to hear the news from OGH. All my best wishes OGH. I know you will have probably done this but when my mum got vascular dementia we found the Alzheimer Society incredibly useful in ways I couldn't have imagined.
b) One thread gave a hypothetical Tory outcome of just 80 seats so I went and had a look at the list and three immediately jumped out at me (Yeah I appreciate that is not likely to happen):
Farnham and Bordon - This comes out of the breakup of SW Surrey. It is an area I used to know very well politically (not going to explain why because I will dox myself). I know from talking to @NickPalmer this is the less favourable of the 2 seats created out of SW Surrey for the LDs but if the Tories are down to 80 seats I can't believe this will be one of them.
Surrey Heath - Again for reasons I won't explain I used to know this seat very well and in those days I would have said a Tory hold under any circumstance, but recently the LDs have made huge inroads. I remember the Tories holding all the Borough seats. They now only have 6 with the LDs on 24.
Breacon and Radnor - Now I have no local knowledge whatsoever on this seat, but really not a LD gain if the Tories are down to 80 seats?
Glad I saw this as I've been away and very busy for most of the week, and had missed this news.
Donald Trump's empire of fraud being dismantled by corporate death penalty.
And yet if he can become President still, which he might, it won't even matter.
For every MAGA supporter incensed at their man being stiffed by the system, there'll be two independents going "Hmmmm...and they want a guy guilty of fraud to be in charge of the nation's finances?"
I do expect Judge Engoron's judgment to be excoriating of Trump. Enough will take note, even if they don't maybe notice the distinction between a civil and criminal judgment.
The criminal trial comes next month. Those who have poo-pooed the trial (for paying hush-money to porn star Stormy Daniels to hide their affair and the false accounting around it) as not being very important should have a word with the judge. From what he has said, he thinks it a VERY serious charge.
It is.
Whether Trump will be found guilty is another question. Proving it will be hard.
One reason however to think he may not have a happy issue is that in America the outcome usually depends on the quality of the lawyer. Good (or at least clever) lawyers cut deals or use procedural flaws to smash the charge. Hence Epstein getting barely any sentence.
Trump’s lawyers however are even madder and barely more versed in the law than he is. They could easily blow his case up through sheer incompetence.
Donald Trump's empire of fraud being dismantled by corporate death penalty.
And yet if he can become President still, which he might, it won't even matter.
For every MAGA supporter incensed at their man being stiffed by the system, there'll be two independents going "Hmmmm...and they want a guy guilty of fraud to be in charge of the nation's finances?"
I do expect Judge Engoron's judgment to be excoriating of Trump. Enough will take note, even if they don't maybe notice the distinction between a civil and criminal judgment.
The criminal trial comes next month. Those who have poo-pooed the trial (for paying hush-money to porn star Stormy Daniels to hide their affair and the false accounting around it) as not being very important should have a word with the judge. From what he has said, he thinks it a VERY serious charge.
No nonsense judge, too.
Impressive how matter-of-factly Trump's lawyer got slapped down for grandstanding. Merchan is not going to stand for any shit - and just as importantly, knows how to deal with it.
I got robbed last night by 2 people after getting off a night bus in Rome. The problem was I didn't expect the Metro to close as early as 11:30pm on a Thursday night. Luckily I wasn't injured when they grabbed my coat. The 2 people (who got on the bus at the same time as me) were obviously waiting for me to get off and hoping it was in an area without anyone else around, which is what happened.
Sorry to hear that. A nasty experience. I hope you didn't lose too much.
I got robbed last night by 2 people after getting off a night bus in Rome. The problem was I didn't expect the Metro to close as early as 11:30pm on a Thursday night. Luckily I wasn't injured when they grabbed my coat. The 2 people (who got on the bus at the same time as me) were obviously waiting for me to get off and hoping it was in an area without anyone else around, which is what happened.
God that’s awful. Sorry to hear that. Are you okay?
Mr. JS, sorry to hear that, but glad you weren't injured.
Mr. Ghedebrav, yeah, I've heard lots of the pre-written campaigns are poorly done and I'd be pissed off to waste the money and still have to do a load of work. At least the mistakes that need fixing are my own and I know the world and don't need to worry about solutions creating new problems down the line.
It’s damming for the Tories that Labour win big without standing for much. It’s like your wife saying she’s leaving you for another man. ‘What’s his name?’ ‘I don’t know yet.’
Rather, "I don't care; anything's better than you."
a) Really sorry to hear the news from OGH. All my best wishes OGH. I know you will have probably done this but when my mum got vascular dementia we found the Alzheimer Society incredibly useful in ways I couldn't have imagined.
b) One thread gave a hypothetical Tory outcome of just 80 seats so I went and had a look at the list and three immediately jumped out at me (Yeah I appreciate that is not likely to happen):
Farnham and Bordon - This comes out of the breakup of SW Surrey. It is an area I used to know very well politically (not going to explain why because I will dox myself). I know from talking to @NickPalmer this is the less favourable of the 2 seats created out of SW Surrey for the LDs but if the Tories are down to 80 seats I can't believe this will be one of them.
Surrey Heath - Again for reasons I won't explain I used to know this seat very well and in those days I would have said a Tory hold under any circumstance, but recently the LDs have made huge inroads. I remember the Tories holding all the Borough seats. They now only have 6 with the LDs on 24.
Breacon and Radnor - Now I have no local knowledge whatsoever on this seat, but really not a LD gain if the Tories are down to 80 seats?
The Lib Dems have died a death in Wales. If any party other than the Tories take that seat it would be Labour, but I think it unlikely. That’s an area where voting is sticky and people change their views very slowly. Cf Montgomery and Glyndwr.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1758404316631531751
There is one gigantic USP up for grabs which might be unpalatable for some on his own side but it would be overwhemingly popular in the country. He could build a whole campaign ariound it. It could be called "Sorry we screwed up" .
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
And who is going to pull that one off ?
Boris is about the only Tory sufficiently devoid of principle and shame to attempt it with any kind of convincing sham-sincerity, but he wouldn't convince the like of either isam or me. Or Tory backbenchers.
It's a possible project for a Tory party suffering a second terms of semi-oblivion in opposition, but far from probable.
If we rejoined with some kind of deal where FOM was renegotiated, as Remainers told us was always possible anyway, then it wouldn’t bother me
That would have been easier, were we still in. But interesting, so thanks for responding to my comment.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
In a few years it might be impressive enough to render convincing faces, and have the people not look like they are floating weirdly up in the air over a studio flat with a picture of what might be snow on it, for 17 seconds.
HOWEVER that's just pointing out the problems.
This looks like it is *amazing* for previz and really optimize that part of the process. Like, now, today, as-is.
And that's the kind of thing at which this generation of generative AI is going to dominate.
Have you checked out the other videos?
For some reason they chose one of the worst in that tweet
There are others which are vastly superior, mind blowing
"I don’t even know what to say…
These clips generated by OpenAI’s Sora model have me speechless.
We knew good AI text-to-video would come, but this quickly? Unreal.
Yup. Again - I agree it is going to be transformative; particularly for the cost of developing VFX in general and animated movies in particular
But looking at that, the uncanny valley problem is, I'd guess, more than 5 years off being solved for anything like a whole scene of dialog for virtual actors. Likewise the state of text-to-speech which is outstanding today - it's leaped forward in the last 5 years.
Mr. Leon, it'll be interesting to see the cultural side of that commercial transformation.
Pathfinder/Paizo have said they won't use AI for art, and WotC/DnD got a bollocking from the TTRPG community for using AI art. Disney/Marvel's Secret Invasion used AI for the intro and got a backlash for that as well.
The AI discussion around art misses the point of what culture is. It is fundamentally a human thing. You can't replace it with AI.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
Whoever can nail microtransactions properly, taking a penny on the dollar for one person sending money to another person, will be the next massive tech darling.
But instead they’re all trying to find ways of taking 10% or more, which people have no interest in doing.
Genuine example. I had a bet with someone on this site, which I lost. We agreed that I would buy them an Amazon voucher, because that was way easier than actually transferring money at the bank.
That has to be a solved problem - PayPal and co have been doing it at no cost for years.
When you talk about micro transactions I thought you were talking about small (2-10p/c) payments for access to an article or tv program - that’s been a whole grail for 20 odd years and it looks like someone is about to have another try at it
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Surely the Hollywood strikers are ahead of you in reading their AI crystal balls.
ETA my guess would be the first impacts would be further down: computer games; adverts; translation into foreign languages; even writing.
Comments
In May only some of them do.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I think just a single Tory MP (Andrea Jenkyns) has issued on record criticism of the PM this morning
Is notable as hacks try to test the temp of Sunak critics and where rebels go next
(No shortage of public fire after BoJo’s late by-election losses)
Plus of course it is only a timing issue.
For some reason they chose one of the worst in that tweet
There are others which are vastly superior, mind blowing
"I don’t even know what to say…
These clips generated by OpenAI’s Sora model have me speechless.
We knew good AI text-to-video would come, but this quickly? Unreal.
We’re stepping into a new world.
Buckle up."
https://x.com/mckaywrigley/status/1758237675847565328?s=20
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
WotC/Hasbro don't give a flying F about the TTRGP community and continue to believe that D&D is a cash cow for microtransactions (or whatever), failing to understand that essentially all they actually own is a recognisable brand name and nobody needs them to be able to play D&D.
I’m sure there is some data out there about the relative performance of NHS staff by origin.
Mr. Ghedebrav, sorry for the slow reply, was doing a spot of work. I'm homebrewing my own thing, though the setting's fairly straightforward, a mix of classic fantasy and Norse Scandinavia.
Edited extra bit: while my first campaign, I've watched a lot of lore videos and related stuff so luckily I had a running start which has made things a little easier than they might be.
Boris could get away with it because he was a one off; the reason he was divisive was that his haters couldn’t believe he got away with it. But you can’t replace Freddie Mercury with Barbara Dickson then Chris Martin, and expect Queen fans to buy tickets to concerts
It’s way more likely when things are going badly that the opposite will occur, all the news will be bad and continually chip away another 1% of the Tory party base.
See for example this morning’s story about no longer being able to reduce income tax because of the GDP issues
Think about it. The studios that are still using directors, cameramen, producers, musicians, actors, will all go out of business, because tiny studios with one good idea and a decent computer will be able to make entire and brilliant movies for about 30p
It's like trying to stop the spinning Jenny or electricity, imagine if Luddite British weavers had managed to get a law forbidding the use of powered looms, the French would have done it and destroyed the British textile industry overnight
His logic is 'every day I am PM, until I call the election'
That's why it is in the interests of the remainder of the current Tory MPs to defenestrate him, ASAP
That said, I would rather have had him than any other living British politician in charge during COVID and he did plenty wrong as it is over that time, so go figure.
I couldn't give a toss whether she goes back to the show or doesn't or what happens to the other one or the love affair or anything.
Great performances, thoroughly unengaging story.
Looking forward to Slow Horses and the one with Peter Capaldi in.
Running in December buys the current government seven more months in office.
The cost of that is some (30? 50? 100?) Conservative seats in the next Parliament, but why should the current management be concerned by that?
And office, even if it's without power, is a helluva drug.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/04/the-state-of-process-the-process-state/
Pressure will mount on Rishi Sunak after these by-election results ie change tack or get out. But my understanding is from those I’ve spoken to that local election results in May are when critics will go full throttle on plotting & demand he steps down
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact
bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day
Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn
Damning interim covid report publication before GE
Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills
Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election)
Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better
Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
https://dealbreaker.com/2023/11/arrested-in-dawn-raids-is-certainly-one-way-for-a-law-firm-to-end-
But this is the best one -
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/watch-champagne-swigging-modhwadia-parties-days-suspension
I missed the parties looking while for another job, a search that accelerated when I quit immediately upon learning of the scale of the fraud.
Bringing back Queen/Boris wouldn't change that.
This is terrifyingly good. As the guy says in the vid linked by @viewcode this is another ChatGPT or Dall-E moment, except possibly even more scary
AI will create entire new realities, ravishingly beautiful but deeply unnerving
One guy writes some rules and then they can get a LLM to write some background stories for them, and then some computer-generated art, and you have a product that looks almost as good as the stuff created by companies.
Someone home-brewing things obviously doesn't have a budget for an artist, so it's harder to object to, and that's one of the ways that its use will be normalised, and ultimately drive greater competition.
"Leaving the EU has cost us our shirts. It was a Tory Government that took us in and it can be a Tory government that takes us in again. With the extra 5% we could make this country prosperous again. Lead the way on green technology......blah....blah....blah
It would be entertaining to see what the fanbois did then.
History is full of characters who looked like they were down and out, written off but came back and won again. Most likely the data and opinions of their opponents said they couldn’t do it, but they did. One thing I’m quite confident of; Sir Keir & Labour strategists are mighty pleased not to have to face Boris in the GE campaign
I minted the phrase "turkeys don't vote for Christmas to be brought forward" - and I hereby give permission to @TOPPING to torture it
What would Sir Keir do? Zig zag back to wanting FOM? Demand another referendum?
https://x.com/skynews/status/1758387006277644556?s=46&t=XZnvDoD4UNkhJcaydPyoWA
Boris is about the only Tory sufficiently devoid of principle and shame to attempt it with any kind of convincing sham-sincerity, but he wouldn't convince the like of either isam or me. Or Tory backbenchers.
It's a possible project for a Tory party suffering a second terms of semi-oblivion in opposition, but far from probable.
"Sora, give me an adorable mixed race couple playing with kittens in a lovely kitchen to show how good our pasta is"
Bingo. Done. No set, no actors, nothing, Cost: 50p
Of course, there could be a latter day de Gaulle who might stop that.
They deserved a shellacking here and duly got it...
https://youtu.be/nvk6DUmTuvE?si=kAruFR_M7pbxLN43
It’s damming for the Tories that Labour win big without standing for much.
It’s like your wife saying she’s leaving you for another man.
‘What’s his name?’
‘I don’t know yet.’
📊 Labour lead at 19pts
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 42% (-2)
CON: 23% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
REF: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
via
@techneUK
I agree totally.
Also if Sunak tries it (maybe in order to save his skin) he'll lose all credibility.
If they get rid of Sunak and put someone else in (Rees-Mogg, Suella) they will gain 5% from Reform and lose 10% to Labour or LibDems depending on constituency.
Sunak should go for May before things get worse for the Tories in general and himself in particular.
Local parties, huh?
You want to be sure of getting rid of the government, you have to vote for their principle opposition.
*checks notes*
150 seat majority
I do expect Judge Engoron's judgment to be excoriating of Trump. Enough will take note, even if they don't maybe notice the distinction between a civil and criminal judgment.
The criminal trial comes next month. Those who have poo-pooed the trial (for paying hush-money to porn star Stormy Daniels to hide their affair and the false accounting around it) as not being very important should have a word with the judge. From what he has said, he thinks it a VERY serious charge.
Now that can be seen a cherry picking, but I see it as a negotiation.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
But instead they’re all trying to find ways of taking 10% or more, which people have no interest in doing.
Genuine example. I had a bet with someone on this site, which I lost. We agreed that I would buy them an Amazon voucher, because that was way easier than actually transferring money at the bank.
This one has .. checks notes ... 34 felony charges.
As per @SamCoatesSky - Sunak has now got the record for losing Tory-held seats in by-elections during a parliament. He's beaten John Major's legendary run in 92-97.
I got robbed last night by 2 people after getting off a night bus in Rome. The problem was I didn't expect the Metro to close as early as 11:30pm on a Thursday night. Luckily I wasn't injured when they grabbed my coat. The 2 people (who got on the bus at the same time as me) were obviously waiting for me to get off and hoping it was in an area without anyone else around, which is what happened.
a) Really sorry to hear the news from OGH. All my best wishes OGH. I know you will have probably done this but when my mum got vascular dementia we found the Alzheimer Society incredibly useful in ways I couldn't have imagined.
b) One thread gave a hypothetical Tory outcome of just 80 seats so I went and had a look at the list and three immediately jumped out at me (Yeah I appreciate that is not likely to happen):
Farnham and Bordon - This comes out of the breakup of SW Surrey. It is an area I used to know very well politically (not going to explain why because I will dox myself). I know from talking to @NickPalmer this is the less favourable of the 2 seats created out of SW Surrey for the LDs but if the Tories are down to 80 seats I can't believe this will be one of them.
Surrey Heath - Again for reasons I won't explain I used to know this seat very well and in those days I would have said a Tory hold under any circumstance, but recently the LDs have made huge inroads. I remember the Tories holding all the Borough seats. They now only have 6 with the LDs on 24.
Breacon and Radnor - Now I have no local knowledge whatsoever on this seat, but really not a LD gain if the Tories are down to 80 seats?
In a presidential system, it is possible he could make it work, but reliant on a parliamentary party with a wide range of often opposing views within it, he has close to zero chance of success in governing.
Wishing all the best to OGH and family.
Whether Trump will be found guilty is another question. Proving it will be hard.
One reason however to think he may not have a happy issue is that in America the outcome usually depends on the quality of the lawyer. Good (or at least clever) lawyers cut deals or use procedural flaws to smash the charge. Hence Epstein getting barely any sentence.
Trump’s lawyers however are even madder and barely more versed in the law than he is. They could easily blow his case up through sheer incompetence.
Impressive how matter-of-factly Trump's lawyer got slapped down for grandstanding.
Merchan is not going to stand for any shit - and just as importantly, knows how to deal with it.
Boris was a good salesman with something to sell, that people wanted to buy. Rishi is a bad salesman who is out of stock.
Snake oil is always in demand!!
Mr. Ghedebrav, yeah, I've heard lots of the pre-written campaigns are poorly done and I'd be pissed off to waste the money and still have to do a load of work. At least the mistakes that need fixing are my own and I know the world and don't need to worry about solutions creating new problems down the line.
Unlike Alina Habba-Dabba-Doo, she doesn't seem to need to fake being smart.
But interesting, so thanks for responding to my comment.
But looking at that, the uncanny valley problem is, I'd guess, more than 5 years off being solved for anything like a whole scene of dialog for virtual actors. Likewise the state of text-to-speech which is outstanding today - it's leaped forward in the last 5 years.
When you talk about micro transactions I thought you were talking about small (2-10p/c) payments for access to an article or tv program - that’s been a whole grail for 20 odd years and it looks like someone is about to have another try at it
Nasty. Don’t let it put you off travelling!
I’ve been robbed a couple of times abroad. Always shakes you. Indeed I’ve been robbed in London - of a phone
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1758452914798875040
ETA my guess would be the first impacts would be further down: computer games; adverts; translation into foreign languages; even writing.