Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
From a Gen Erection to a Gen Election in one fell swoop.
She looks OK
Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.
I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
On topic. Clear political betting guidance to us in the header.
“The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen”
So when you are taking everything into account, as the time this year that gets the best possible damage limitation result,
1 what are you seeing coming down the tracks after June, which actually improves “the narrative” for the Tories? Can you point to anything?
2 where others are pointing to things coming after June that certainly changes the narrative, but to a much worse, almost impossible narrative for Tories to campaign in, do you see these as just not happening, or maybe happening but with no impact bad news on recession, that actually gets worse in coming months with more near zero or negative growth in some or all of the 2024 quarters announced before polling day Expected surge in illegal channel crossings during summer and autumn Damning interim covid report publication before GE Ongoing mortgage crisis as key voters switch to higher mortgage bills Credibility and morale shattering set of locals in May (kills a June election) Giving voters even more time and evidence to realise things ain’t getting better Another disaster “fag end conference” for Tories before election while conceding opponents a conference to launch their campaign from
3 and, looking at Montgomery’s take this morning, Opposition fun with “squatting” and “frit” narrative, analysis shows clinging on cost John Major votes, are you sure the impression that will definitely start to build up now, of being seen to “be hanging on just waiting for something to turn up” won’t itself actually lose votes week on week month on month from May to December, just on its own?
You gave us your opinion on how to bet, is it fair for us to ask for your workings out and thought process?
It makes no difference to Big Rish whether the tories have 203 or 3 seats after the election so why the fuck would you think he will try to optimise the election date for that when he could be PM for 6 months longer?
My answer to that is doubting he wants to be PM for six months longer.
Firstly, historically the default is hang on, of course if something could turn up that gives you a chance of victory and staying on in the job. And that’s how it normally is for governing party behind in polls in election year. But occasionally, this one, 97, don’t know which one before that, the end is coming, when and how do you want the end? Do you want to leave the least bad hammering behind?
Secondly, they can all earn much more money, have more successful follow on career, better lifestyle for themselves and their families, once this is over. Which, thirdly, secondly would mean something still, but not quite as much, if you were at least enjoying yourself in the fag end of your political career. You telling me, coming on the TV screen the last couple of days, looking haggered, full of insomnia and various levels of anxiety, to say things like “it’s clear to me, the economy has turned a corner” or “what’s clear from these election results, there is no enthusiasm for Labour” - you are seeing people who are clearly enjoying themselves?
Analysis from those there at the time (not least Finkinstein) showed hanging on till last minute got worst result for John Major due to frustrating the electorate. In other words, it proved just a complete and utter waste of time and energy.
The point is PMs behind in the polls generally wait until the last minute in the hope something turns up.
See for example John Major in 1992 and Gordon Brown in 2010 where things did get better in the polls in the final year of the parliament.
Edit - Also Dave in 2015 but Osborne had wargamed that with the FTPA
Neither of those would have had to have faced an electorate furious at a general election campaign staged over the Christmas holidays.
Which is why I think October/November is most likely.
Still leaves the problem that any councillor who lost their seat in May isn’t going to rush out and campaign while still licking their wounds
Executive Summary:
There's no good time to call the election.
And 50,000 mainly Conservative voting old people die every month!!
Wow, that's 600,000 between now and January 23rd. Where can we find some more Tory voting ex-pats?
Don't worry. 600,000 people have stopped being young and Labour voting and have become old and Cons voting. Meanwhile 600,000 people have become young and Labour voting for the first time.
All is well in the world.
The 600,000 who in theory got older and are now voting Tory probably voted Tory in 2019.
The issue is that the only age group voting Tory now are the retired - everyone else is seeing their tax rise yet services continue to deteriorate
Looking at the latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 24%, and the weighted numbers give 153 Tory voters in the over-65s and 181 Tory voters in all other age groups. So only 46% of Tory voters are aged 65+.
The weighted sample has 23% aged 65+ by way of comparison.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
That’s rather uncharitable, unrealistic - and curmudgeonly. She was called directly by the leader and asked to stand. She had to grasp the opportunity. If she hadn’t, someone else might have won the seat and compromised Miss Kitchen’s chances at the GE.
Yeah exactly - you get one shot at something like this. A once in a lifetime thing.
There does seem to be a difference between these two Labour by election gains & those in the latter stages of Major’s govt, for people who are comparing Sir Keir to Sir Anthony
Neither of yesterdays winners added many votes to the Labour score from 2019
Wellingborough +144 Kingswood -5316
Whereas in Wirral South in 1996, Labour were +5360 & South East Staffs +4167
That's because turnout was roughly half of what it was in 2019!
That’s the point isn’t it? In the 1996 By Elections, turnout was about 60% and Labour added an extra 25% of votes to their previous tally
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
From a Gen Erection to a Gen Election in one fell swoop.
She looks OK
Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.
I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
Never been on one! But heartening to know there's at least one new type of train with decent seating!
There does seem to be a difference between these two Labour by election gains & those in the latter stages of Major’s govt, for people who are comparing Sir Keir to Sir Anthony
Neither of yesterdays winners added many votes to the Labour score from 2019
Wellingborough +144 Kingswood -5316
Whereas in Wirral South in 1996, Labour were +5360 & South East Staffs +4167
That's because turnout was roughly half of what it was in 2019!
That’s the point isn’t it? In the 1996 By Elections, turnout was about 60% and Labour added an extra 25% of votes to their previous tally
How many votes did the Tory bods add to their respective 2019 totals?
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
From a Gen Erection to a Gen Election in one fell swoop.
She looks OK
Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.
I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
From a Gen Erection to a Gen Election in one fell swoop.
She looks OK
Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.
I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
Never been on one! But heartening to know there's at least one new type of train with decent seating!
They’re pretty good actually. Comfortable. Not only good legroom but wide seats with high backs. Good views out of the window (which matters in Wales). USB and three pin charger points for every seat. Not too noisy. Not lots of stupid announcements, for a start.
Against my expectations I’m impressed. Gold star for all involved.
Edit - and I think they’re due to be rolled out across pretty much all routes including the Central Wales.
There does seem to be a difference between these two Labour by election gains & those in the latter stages of Major’s govt, for people who are comparing Sir Keir to Sir Anthony
Neither of yesterdays winners added many votes to the Labour score from 2019
Wellingborough +144 Kingswood -5316
Whereas in Wirral South in 1996, Labour were +5360 & South East Staffs +4167
That's because turnout was roughly half of what it was in 2019!
That’s the point isn’t it? In the 1996 By Elections, turnout was about 60% and Labour added an extra 25% of votes to their previous tally
How many votes did the Tory bods add to their respective 2019 totals?
That’s not the point. I’m comparing Lab 96-Lab 92 to Lab 24-Lab 19. The Tories lost loads of votes both times, but they didn’t go to Labour yesterday as they did in 96
Seems a bit too normal to do well as a politician. Well done her. Need more like her.
The normal thing to do would have been to complete the honeymoon and stand in the general, only a few months to wait.
I find this video rather sad. It reminds me just how weirdly obsessive politicos are.
I turned down a job interview while on honeymoon. Application had gone in three months earlier and I'd heard nothing. I took the view that if it was suddenly that urgent after all that time and they wouldn't wait a week until the honeymoon was over then it wasn't the place for me (and, also, if they weren't willing to wait for me then my chances maybe weren't all that good).
ETA: And my current employer did move the interview date to work around my prior commitments (I had a flight booked to give a talk). I only requested it moved by one day and I flagged it up before applying that I could not attend on the published date. They indicated that if they liked me enough then they'd move the date, which they duly did.
Quite right. So would I.
I wouldn't interrupt anything on honeymoon.
So you would withdraw?
But isn’t that a form of interrupting?
I'd be annoyed at getting the call in the first place, and then I'd politely decline.
If you're talented there will be more opportunities and if you set boundaries you will also be more respected.
She was married back in October. And in any event, it was literally a Gen Election.
From a Gen Erection to a Gen Election in one fell swoop.
She looks OK
Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.
I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
You found a train running in Wales ????
Well, a gentle amble
Just going into Llandudno Junction actually. So very close to you!
As well I didn’t leave it until tomorrow as I was thinking of doing. Engineering works at Bangor, replacement buses.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
That’s like asking people do you prefer the unknown or the left overs from last night that gave you food poisoning
Give people a choice of the options within the Tory party and suddenly Rishi is the preferred option
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
Because people read it and react and then share it.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
It's a John Gray article; you wouldn't expect it to make sense.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
That’s like asking people do you prefer the unknown or the left overs from last night that gave you food poisoning
Give people a choice of the options within the Tory party and suddenly Rishi is the preferred option
The leader they all voted for at the last GE is not really ‘the unknown’
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
Because people read it and react and then share it.
Correct. And I've just done the same.
Interesting though, isn't it? If you already believe this stuff anyway then it will simply be added to your book as another evidence point even though it's almost certainly entirely false.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
Looking at 2019 Conservatives; If Boris came back, 35% more likely 26% less likely 15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway 15% would vote Conservative anyway
So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.
This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.
Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.
Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
But that’s not the point, is it? He’s not being ‘aggressively pursued.’ In fact, anyone else would have been banged up good and hard long ago.
What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.
The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.
Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.
Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
OpenAI have just announced single shot text-to-video ie you text a prompt, and it can now create 60 seconds of lifelike video.
"Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model. Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.
Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”"
That's remarkable. It's still not quite right, the walk is a little stiff, there are still traces of uncanny valley, but when you remember the deeply weird, obviously AI videos of a year ago...
The technology is still accelerating
They are maybe 3-5 years from being able to create entire movies, all AI, with AI scripts and AI music
So those Hollywood strikes might have been for nothing
Damn, I came here to tell you (@Leon) that but you got here first. Here's a video from Marques Brownlee on that very subject
Strikes me these are good enough - or almost good enough - to lower profile TV ads. You no longer need #randomactor driving a car through a city or doing the weekly shop or looking excited about washing powder. I guess the question is how significant is the saving - how much of an ad budget is shooting the thing as opposed to paying for it to get shown?
The other issue is are advertisers brave enough? Would there be blowback from airing a 'fake' ad? A safer option might be to do something that's clearly CGI - e.g. impossible physics, cartoonlike characters, anthropomorphic animals etc. The Andrex puppies should be looking into their career options.
Not mainstream advertisers in the first instance but small firms who cannot afford advertising agencies but want to plug their used car dealership on local telly at 3am, or on social media.
That's the trouble with Leon's unnuanced scaremongering. Those at the top won't be affected. The big chunk in the middle have their jobs at risk. For those at the bottom, AI gives them the opportunity to do things they could not previously afford.
More worrying is the local equivalent of a 30-year-old Keir Starmer ordering the CPS to free the nonces, and the nonces generating AI porn videos.
WHAT THE FUCK HAVE I GOT TO DO WITH IT
Seriously. How does my opinion on AI, on PB, change anything? How can it be problematic?
100%. People seem to mistake enthusiastically hyperbolic (and, in my view, more right than wrong except on the standard unknown of timescales) for impactful. PB might be amazing but I don't think we are *that* influential...
I actually agree on the time scale. I can be hyperbolic, I know that. I also think I can extrapolate better than 97% of PB and better than 99.99% of humanity. It’s why I saw Covid coming. On about Feb 3rd 2020 I was telling my older daughter’s mum ‘they are going to close the schools, i guarantee it, get ready’ and she laughed like I was a total lunatic then she apologised four months later. True story
However I also have a tendency to get over-excited - I know, hard to believe - which means I OVER extrapolate. I shrink time scales. This is the case with LLMs. As soon as @FrancisUrquhart told me about gpt2 on here, and what was coming, I extrapolated to actual AGI, and I am still sure it is coming, quite soon. But actually language modeling has slowed down to an extent i hadn’t foreseen (nerfing, safety fears, data limits). So it will take longer that i anticipated
See also: self driving cars
If I make a big prediction my advice is, listen carefully to me, I’m probably right, but I’m also, at the same time, probably wildly wrong in the timing and far too “optimistic”. Double any timing estimates I give
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
My three year-old nephew is currently obsessed with Optimus Prime...
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
Well, that does seem to be Aileen Cannon’s position, certainly.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
But that’s not the point, is it? He’s not being ‘aggressively pursued.’ In fact, anyone else would have been banged up good and hard long ago.
What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.
The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.
Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.
Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
Well they have also been aggressively defended, which is part of the reason it's taken so long. WIth sufficient resources (and Trump has spent many tens of millions), even obtaining a simple piece of evidence can become a years long battle through the courts.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
Fourth, he appointed a known hostile to investigate himself, not a woman who was effectively a member of his campaign team. (This seems to have been an error as Hur made a number of statements in the report which may be false, but you can see why he did it.)
My reading of the Biden report is Hur was sore he couldn’t prosecute Biden so shot his mouth off on irrelevancies instead.
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
My three year-old nephew is currently obsessed with Optimus Prime...
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
My three year-old nephew is currently obsessed with Optimus Prime...
My thirteen month old son is obsessed with socks
My 20 year old son is obsessed with moral philosophy. There really ought to be a helpline.
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
They can lose as a Conservative or as Reform - what would it matter?
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
But that’s not the point, is it? He’s not being ‘aggressively pursued.’ In fact, anyone else would have been banged up good and hard long ago.
What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.
The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.
Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.
Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
But the question to consider, and the point of the article I think, is this: is pursuing him actually doing any good?
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
Tory backbenchers are probably both stupid and selfish enough.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
Looking at 2019 Conservatives; If Boris came back, 35% more likely 26% less likely 15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway 15% would vote Conservative anyway
So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.
This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.
Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.
Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
Thanks for finding that, I was eager to see the ‘less likely’ score
In an election campaign, I’m pretty confident Boris would win over a lot more waverers than Sunak, so it does seem the mistake I say they made replacing Johnson is confirmed by data. Being less disliked whilst having a net -44 is worthless
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
It's good for us all that Cameron's referendum neutered the right wing nutters. Imagine the chaos that would have been unleashed if Miliband had won. We'd be mired in economic stagnation by now. It's all Starmer's fault.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
They could be "amazed" by three people as opposed to none, all of whom may be standing down at the next election anyway.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
Looking at 2019 Conservatives; If Boris came back, 35% more likely 26% less likely 15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway 15% would vote Conservative anyway
So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.
This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.
Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.
Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
Thanks for finding that, I was eager to see the ‘less likely’ score
In an election campaign, I’m pretty confident Boris would win over a lot more waverers than Sunak, so it does seem the mistake I say they made replacing Johnson is confirmed by data. Being less disliked whilst having a net -44 is worthless
Yep, Boris was a very ordinary PM but he was a superb campaigner that could use humour effectively to reach parts of the electorate that wouldn't give a Tory like Sunak the time of day.
My theory? He didn't want to do it before the Carlson interview because he knew brave Tucker would have relentlessly pursued him on it and nailed him to the wall.
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
They could be "amazed" by three people as opposed to none, all of whom may be standing down at the next election anyway.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
It's extremely likely he wouldn't have been, had he handed them back rather than lying about them.
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
My three year-old nephew is currently obsessed with Optimus Prime...
My thirteen month old son is obsessed with socks
My sixteenth month son is obsessed with pointing at pictures of me and saying "dada!" and also trying on my size eleven shoes.
He did mention the other day, though, that quite frankly he'd have preferred a soft Brexit through the EEA with an emergency brake, and didn't think that Boris's withdrawal deal wasn't quite as 'oven ready' as he'd made out.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
It's extremely likely he wouldn't have been, had he handed them back rather than lying about them.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
As I posted earlier, people are utterly sick of them. They aren't interested in Tory perspectives on Starmer so its a waste of Sunak's breath constantly trying to attack him.
You can fight an election on fear of the other when you have delivered something, you can't when you have failed on every one of your own measures.
What the Tories really need is to go off on a policy retreat, sit round in a circle, and come up with some new ideas which they could get started on quickly. New news, change the narrative, find something positive to run on.
Yes and Ho!
They tried that six months ago, though - spending the money from HS2 on 'Network North', banning smoking, repealing the meat tax, a new round of nimbyism, and a barmy dog whistle around liveable cities.
All very Thought Camp-worthy.
But where is any of that now? It got laughed at by the public, and - to their credit - they quickly abandoned the notion of Rishi being the change candidate.
It was worth a shot, I suppose - but they can't go back and try it again.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
But that’s not the point, is it? He’s not being ‘aggressively pursued.’ In fact, anyone else would have been banged up good and hard long ago.
What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.
The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.
Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.
Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
But the question to consider, and the point of the article I think, is this: is pursuing him actually doing any good?
It’s proving nobody is above the law. That in itself is important if you want a country where people obey laws.
Again the article is lying. It is not the Democrats that are pursuing him. It is the courts. Although the court system in the US is overly politicised there is no evidence that that has anything to do with it.
Stopping the courts from pursuing criminals would be interference and would definitely be a hundred times worse - it would say Trump or any violent criminal with money can get away with anything. That’s already far too much the impression in the US and urgently needs correcting.
The real reason he and his supporters are forging a conspiracy myth is because they know he’s guilty. Like Assange’s supporters. Or O J Simpson’s. They have no other recourse because the evidence, most of it from Trump himself, is overwhelming and the excuses he offers are genuinely laughable.
So yes, it is the right thing to do. It would be better if Trump had been safely locked up long ago so he wasn’t trying to divert attention from his crimes by running again, but that’s his fault not the prosecutors’.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
For ?
Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
The problem with the Johnson-Is-Still-PM counterfactual is that he would have done something else dreadful after Pinchergate and then something else after that. He was a -gate machine.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
Looking at 2019 Conservatives; If Boris came back, 35% more likely 26% less likely 15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway 15% would vote Conservative anyway
So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.
This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.
Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.
Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
Thanks for finding that, I was eager to see the ‘less likely’ score
In an election campaign, I’m pretty confident Boris would win over a lot more waverers than Sunak, so it does seem the mistake I say they made replacing Johnson is confirmed by data. Being less disliked whilst having a net -44 is worthless
Yep, Boris was a very ordinary PM but he was a superb campaigner that could use humour effectively to reach parts of the electorate that wouldn't give a Tory like Sunak the time of day.
I addition to my post, we need to see how Tory 2019 Don’t Knows split Boris/Sunak @Stuartinromford
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
Oddly, I’m actually inclined to agree with you. As I thought about Clinton.
But the reason he hasn’t is because his subsequent actions mean no jury will convict him.
That makes it a waste of time.
Trump, however, keeps doubling down. Because he’s a dangerous criminal and thinks he is above the law.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
The person who accused Biden of taking a bribe is now on trial for perjury. What were you planning to charge him with?
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
It's extremely likely he wouldn't have been, had he handed them back rather than lying about them.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
For ?
Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides. Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches. Not any more.
Tory backbenchers are probably both stupid and selfish enough.
Farage on R4 just now was clearly keeping his options open, and I’d guess that the RefUKs may try to turbo-charge their election campaign with some announcement about Farage re-entering the fray. Reading between the lines of his replies, my guess is that Farage hopes to inflict such a defeat on the conservative establishment that he and his cronies will be able to emerge as key players in constructing a new politics of the right.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
For ?
Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
We don’t know he has. Hur is a notorious liar himself.
But - he shouldn’t have had the documents. For that he does deserve a telling off by a court.
As does Trump. Although he’s using highly dodgy methods to try and avoid it.
Filing false reports or indulging in silly what aboutery involving Trump are not however the way to do it. It just makes the Republicans look like the certifiable lunatics with Nazi tendencies they undoubtedly are.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
Looking at 2019 Conservatives; If Boris came back, 35% more likely 26% less likely 15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway 15% would vote Conservative anyway
So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.
This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.
Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.
Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
Thanks for finding that, I was eager to see the ‘less likely’ score
In an election campaign, I’m pretty confident Boris would win over a lot more waverers than Sunak, so it does seem the mistake I say they made replacing Johnson is confirmed by data. Being less disliked whilst having a net -44 is worthless
Yep, Boris was a very ordinary PM but he was a superb campaigner that could use humour effectively to reach parts of the electorate that wouldn't give a Tory like Sunak the time of day.
If you like your campaigns comedically anarchic, Johnson was great.
Johnson campaigns are also less effective when he is forced not to lie.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
For ?
Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.
There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.
It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
As I posted earlier, people are utterly sick of them. They aren't interested in Tory perspectives on Starmer so its a waste of Sunak's breath constantly trying to attack him.
You can fight an election on fear of the other when you have delivered something, you can't when you have failed on every one of your own measures.
What the Tories really need is to go off on a policy retreat, sit round in a circle, and come up with some new ideas which they could get started on quickly. New news, change the narrative, find something positive to run on.
Yes and Ho!
They tried that six months ago, though - spending the money from HS2 on 'Network North', banning smoking, repealing the meat tax, a new round of nimbyism, and a barmy dog whistle around liveable cities.
All very Thought Camp-worthy.
But where is any of that now? It got laughed at by the public, and - to their credit - they quickly abandoned the notion of Rishi being the change candidate.
It was worth a shot, I suppose - but they can't go back and try it again.
Problem is that they didn't: Spending the money from HS2 on NN - nope. The only shovel ready schemes have been filling potholes in London Banning smoking - Tory MPs won't vote for it and Rishi knows it Repealing the Meat Tax - didn't exist to repeal
etc
NIMBYism - a lot of voters don't want Tory MPs if that was your point...
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
Oddly, I’m actually inclined to agree with you. As I thought about Clinton.
But the reason he hasn’t is because his subsequent actions mean no jury will convict him.
That makes it a waste of time.
Trump, however, keeps doubling down. Because he’s a dangerous criminal and thinks he is above the law.
Im afraid youre off down the MAGA rabbit hole again chasing Trump. The more attention you give him the stronger he gets. Dems just better pray he doesnt get in since they have set up a new level of lawfare which he will use against them. The Reps did something similar attacking Bill Clinton and took the whole tone of political debate down several notched. It hasnt gone back up since.
Richard Holden being quite aggressive on Daily Politics. Not much sign of humility.
On topic, you can't help but think the Tories' biggest error was knifing Boris.
In the period before Boris was knifed, the Cons were about 10 points behind in the polls. Allowing for some pre-election swingback then that meant likely outcomes were small Con majority, hung parliament, small Lab majority.
Now they are 20 points behind and the most likely outcomes are moderate defeat, 1997-style thumping, existential catastrophe.
Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.
Looking at 2019 Conservatives; If Boris came back, 35% more likely 26% less likely 15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway 15% would vote Conservative anyway
So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.
This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.
Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.
Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
And the problem remains the geography.
Imagine they brought Johnson back. He’d run an energetic campaign, albeit that he’d struggle with the scrutiny, both over his personal misbehaviour and because levelling up the North has achieved precisely nothing. He’d probably shore up the Tory vote in the so-called red wall seats, but most of them are surely lost already, and the margin of defeat becomes an irrelevance. Meanwhile he’d pitch Home Counties seats in Surrey and Sussex and all points west into the hands of the LibDems.
Labour might be nervous at the possible return of the lying clown, but as a LibDem-leaning voter I’d say, bring it on…..
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
@JackElsom New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.
"We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."
They call on him to: 1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA 2. More legal migration curbs 3. Cut taxes 4. Welfare reform
Refreshing to see them pushing for legal migration curbs, rather than proposed curbs on migration that have been deemed illegal, such as the Rwanda scheme
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
The person who accused Biden of taking a bribe is now on trial for perjury. What were you planning to charge him with?
Me personally nothing. However you will have a job to convince that the US system with its many politically elected officials is an unbiased reliable one.
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
My three year-old nephew is currently obsessed with Optimus Prime...
My thirteen month old son is obsessed with socks
Just appreciate that his world view has expanded as far as his feet. Things can only get worse.
It's over for the Tories. Absolutely over. We didn't do what we said we'd do and did the things we said we wouldn't. The longer Sunak delays the election date the angrier the electorate are going to get.
As I posted earlier, people are utterly sick of them. They aren't interested in Tory perspectives on Starmer so its a waste of Sunak's breath constantly trying to attack him.
You can fight an election on fear of the other when you have delivered something, you can't when you have failed on every one of your own measures.
What the Tories really need is to go off on a policy retreat, sit round in a circle, and come up with some new ideas which they could get started on quickly. New news, change the narrative, find something positive to run on.
Yes and Ho!
They tried that six months ago, though - spending the money from HS2 on 'Network North', banning smoking, repealing the meat tax, a new round of nimbyism, and a barmy dog whistle around liveable cities.
All very Thought Camp-worthy.
But where is any of that now? It got laughed at by the public, and - to their credit - they quickly abandoned the notion of Rishi being the change candidate.
It was worth a shot, I suppose - but they can't go back and try it again.
Network North as a campaign idea fell apart the second it was attached to the £xm for pot holes in London poster
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
Oddly, I’m actually inclined to agree with you. As I thought about Clinton.
But the reason he hasn’t is because his subsequent actions mean no jury will convict him.
That makes it a waste of time.
Trump, however, keeps doubling down. Because he’s a dangerous criminal and thinks he is above the law.
The repetition compulsion too many on the liberal side of politics indulge in is the compulsion to appease the far right. It never works, it just makes them stronger. Yet here’s the New Statesman yet again falling into the same compulsion.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
I believe Trump was already included.
then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
Ther are certain key differences.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
For ?
Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
You have Bidenitis.
You apparently want him prosecuted for being old.
Yes, I want him stuck in an old age home in a chair beside Trump where they can be the new Statler and Waldorf. And they can take Pelosi and Mcconnell with them.
We then might get US politicians who can do the day job and maybe make the world a better place.
Comments
I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
The weighted sample has 23% aged 65+ by way of comparison.
2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
@JackElsom
New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.
"We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."
They call on him to:
1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA
2. More legal migration curbs
3. Cut taxes
4. Welfare reform
As in, would see the Lib Dems come second.
Labour is more trusted than the Conservatives on EVERY policy issue prompted.
Which party do voters trust most on...?
(Labour | Conservatives)
NHS (43% | 16%)
Poverty (42% | 15%)
Education (39% | 18%)
Immigration (31% | 22%)
Economy (35% | 26%)
Ukraine (30% | 25%)
Against my expectations I’m impressed. Gold star for all involved.
Edit - and I think they’re due to be rolled out across pretty much all routes including the Central Wales.
Just going into Llandudno Junction actually. So very close to you!
As well I didn’t leave it until tomorrow as I was thinking of doing. Engineering works at Bangor, replacement buses.
"The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."
Richard Holden shats the bed repeatedly in defence of the abruptly edited clip they put out of Sadiq Khan. https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1758408188259336227
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6
"I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."
I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.
They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.
Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
Give people a choice of the options within the Tory party and suddenly Rishi is the preferred option
The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
Translation:
1. Tell Europe to Fuck Off
2. Tell Foreigners to Fuck Off
3. Tell whining voters to Fuck Off
4. Tell scroungers to Fuck Off
Vote Tory or Fuck Off
Will you pls vote for us thank you x
Interesting though, isn't it? If you already believe this stuff anyway then it will simply be added to your book as another evidence point even though it's almost certainly entirely false.
Labour’s Jewish by-election candidate celebrates victory with Israeli-born husband jewishnews.co.uk/labours-jewish… via @JewishNewsUK
https://x.com/lmharpin/status/1758445894519730267?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_240124_New_W.pdf
Looking at 2019 Conservatives;
If Boris came back,
35% more likely
26% less likely
15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway
15% would vote Conservative anyway
So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.
This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45926-how-do-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-and-boris-johnson-
Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.
Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.
The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.
Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.
Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
WIth sufficient resources (and Trump has spent many tens of millions), even obtaining a simple piece of evidence can become a years long battle through the courts.
For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.
For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.
Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
Fourth, he appointed a known hostile to investigate himself, not a woman who was effectively a member of his campaign team. (This seems to have been an error as Hur made a number of statements in the report which may be false, but you can see why he did it.)
My reading of the Biden report is Hur was sore he couldn’t prosecute Biden so shot his mouth off on irrelevancies instead.
My analysis for
@GBNEWS
:
Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides.
Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches.
Not any more.
In an election campaign, I’m pretty confident Boris would win over a lot more waverers than Sunak, so it does seem the mistake I say they made replacing Johnson is confirmed by data. Being less disliked whilst having a net -44 is worthless
https://www.corrour.co.uk/station-house/
He did mention the other day, though, that quite frankly he'd have preferred a soft Brexit through the EEA with an emergency brake, and didn't think that Boris's withdrawal deal wasn't quite as 'oven ready' as he'd made out.
All very Thought Camp-worthy.
But where is any of that now? It got laughed at by the public, and - to their credit - they quickly abandoned the notion of Rishi being the change candidate.
It was worth a shot, I suppose - but they can't go back and try it again.
Again the article is lying. It is not the Democrats that are pursuing him. It is the courts. Although the court system in the US is overly politicised there is no evidence that that has anything to do with it.
Stopping the courts from pursuing criminals would be interference and would definitely be a hundred times worse - it would say Trump or any violent criminal with money can get away with anything. That’s already far too much the impression in the US and urgently needs correcting.
The real reason he and his supporters are forging a conspiracy myth is because they know he’s guilty. Like Assange’s supporters. Or O J Simpson’s. They have no other recourse because the evidence, most of it from Trump himself, is overwhelming and the excuses he offers are genuinely laughable.
So yes, it is the right thing to do. It would be better if Trump had been safely locked up long ago so he wasn’t trying to divert attention from his crimes by running again, but that’s his fault not the prosecutors’.
But the reason he hasn’t is because his subsequent actions mean no jury will convict him.
That makes it a waste of time.
Trump, however, keeps doubling down. Because he’s a dangerous criminal and thinks he is above the law.
You apparently want him prosecuted for being old.
Because we are “better”
But - he shouldn’t have had the documents. For that he does deserve a telling off by a court.
As does Trump. Although he’s using highly dodgy methods to try and avoid it.
Filing false reports or indulging in silly what aboutery involving Trump are not however the way to do it. It just makes the Republicans look like the certifiable lunatics with Nazi tendencies they undoubtedly are.
Johnson campaigns are also less effective when he is forced not to lie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Zephyr#Stations
My favourite, though, is the "Roaring Camp" railroad.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Camp_&_Big_Trees_Narrow_Gauge_Railroad
There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.
It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
Spending the money from HS2 on NN - nope. The only shovel ready schemes have been filling potholes in London
Banning smoking - Tory MPs won't vote for it and Rishi knows it
Repealing the Meat Tax - didn't exist to repeal
etc
NIMBYism - a lot of voters don't want Tory MPs if that was your point...
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/16/jobcentres-told-to-stop-referring-benefit-claimants-to-food-banks
Imagine they brought Johnson back. He’d run an energetic campaign, albeit that he’d struggle with the scrutiny, both over his personal misbehaviour and because levelling up the North has achieved precisely nothing. He’d probably shore up the Tory vote in the so-called red wall seats, but most of them are surely lost already, and the margin of defeat becomes an irrelevance. Meanwhile he’d pitch Home Counties seats in Surrey and Sussex and all points west into the hands of the LibDems.
Labour might be nervous at the possible return of the lying clown, but as a LibDem-leaning voter I’d say, bring it on…..
We then might get US politicians who can do the day job and maybe make the world a better place.