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Thank you Tories for all the betting opportunities – politicalbetting.com

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  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,781

    First rule of PB - @HYUFD is never wrong
    Second rule of PB - except when he says he's right.
  • Jonathan said:

    They said that when they changed leader to Truss. They said it again when they changed leader to Sunak. And now they’re saying it again. How many times until they get the hint?


    The only limit is when Parliament times out.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,662

    First rule of PB - @HYUFD is never wrong
    @HYUFD is a nice, polite, Christian man, who believes in good morality. I can’t believe he would ignore the friendly notes from others that he may have misunderstood an issue just a little bit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007

    What the flippety flip are you on about?

    Yes children in happy homes want to stay that way.

    Divorce is about more than the odd parental row though, you utter dipshit.

    And I know many people who were relieved when their parents separated, as it put an end to the hate and the fighting being inside the house constantly.

    Its like getting a bad tooth removed. You don't want to lose a tooth, but if you have a painful rotten one, then sometimes extraction is best. Nobody wants divorce, but if you have a painful rotten marriage ...
    My father's parents rowed from time to time, they ended up divorced, he had to support his mother through much of his adult life himself while his father remarried.

    Of course in your self centred libertarian nirvana self sacrifice and commitment to marriage and your children is irrelevant but no surprise there
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    The next scandal?


    Natalie Fahy
    @nat_fahy
    ·
    3h
    Our court lists show Valdo Calocane was due to appear in September 2022 for assault of an emergency worker. He failed to show, a warrant was issued for his arrest...but he was never tracked down.

    https://twitter.com/nat_fahy
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,662
    HYUFD said:

    ' A woman seeking housing in east London who alleged racial discrimination when a housing charity reserved its properties for Orthodox Jewish people has lost her case at the supreme court...

    In a ruling that cements positive discrimination as a legitimate way to tackle social disadvantage, the UK’s highest court of appeal found in favour of the Agudas Israel housing association in Stamford Hill after it listed its homes for rent with the caveat of “consideration only to the Orthodox Jewish community”.Handing down judgment, Lord Sales said the lower courts were right that the charity’s use of positive discrimination was proportionate and lawful, under the Equality Act 2010, in order to correct the disadvantage faced by the community. He said the issue was not one of racism as the housing charity discriminated on the grounds of religious observance.'
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/16/uk-supreme-court-backs-housing-charitys-jewish-only-rule
    Thats an interesting case, thanks for posting it. Was there a particular reason you posted it? It doesn’t prove you right.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,788
    Jonathan said:

    Just a few billion. They said that when they changed leader to Truss. They said it again when they changed leader to Sunak. And now they’re saying it again. How many times until they get the hint?


    I realise it's annoying that the Governing party gets so many chances, but it's a feature of the constitution, boohoo. And if the new leader proves successful within the small timeframe they would have, and the electorate prefers their retail offer to Labour's 'give change a chance' or whatever meaningless guff they're filling leaflets with at the moment, that's democracy.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jews are generally considered racially white
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Jews
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bene_Israel
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_Israel
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,071


    David Gauke
    @DavidGauke
    ·
    1h

    Clarke cannot really think that he is going to succeed in removing Sunak before the General Election. This is about preparing to pin the blame on Sunak for the General Election defeat as part of a strategy to move the party further to the right in opposition.

    That’s the only rational explanation, other than presuming score setting from team Boris.

    Frost is there, the telegraph in the mix, it suggests Team Boris up to something? What if Boris wanted to return to the commons at the General Election, and to do so meant taking some leverage over Rishi before the negotiation, the leverage being an offer Rishi can’t refuse like we can call off the attack in an instant. Is that what this “game” is meant to deliver, a constituency for Boris?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,662
    I must to bed. @HYUFD I’ll have to read your apology note in the morning.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,241

    Er... really?

    @Telegraph
    🔵 Oust Sunak or Tories face election massacre, warns former Cabinet ally

    A YouGov poll suggests that a new Tory leader could secure a convincing victory over Labour


    image

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1749907390948909452?s=20

    Bridgend stays Tory and the Vale goes red?

    This is looking like a Tory landslide. Who is the unnamed Tory PM? A job share between Ant and Dec?
  • HYUFD said:

    My father's parents rowed from time to time, they ended up divorced, he had to support his mother through much of his adult life himself while his father remarried.

    Of course in your self centred libertarian nirvana self sacrifice and commitment to marriage and your children is irrelevant but no surprise there
    Again, what the flippety flip are you talking about?

    My father's parents divorced too, and both remarried. As a result I grew up with bonus grandparents, who are not biologically related but they were always my grandparents.

    My grandparents in their second marriages were happy for fifty years as having divorced from the wrong person for them, they were now married to the right person and they were happy.

    And the family was better for it, as the toxic fighting that happened prior to the separation stopped as time went on.

    Commitment to children doesn't end at divorce. Indeed commitment to children means ensuring they have happy homes, not sad ones.
  • @HYUFD is a nice, polite, Christian man, who believes in good morality. I can’t believe he would ignore the friendly notes from others that he may have misunderstood an issue just a little bit.
    He is but he is just impossible to persuade to an alternative argument no matter the evidence
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    I realise it's annoying that the Governing party gets so many chances, but it's a feature of the constitution, boohoo. And if the new leader proves successful within the small timeframe they would have, and the electorate prefers their retail offer to Labour's 'give change a chance' or whatever meaningless guff they're filling leaflets with at the moment, that's democracy.
    Change leader all you like. Tory problems run far deeper than the leader.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I have always said that a new leader could still emerge at this stage, and with a strong, popular platform, and sufficient determination to acheive some of it, they could get a very different GE outcome than the one Sunak is cruising toward. It is no surprise that our SKS supporters are against this happening, because they realise that his election victory depends on Tory shitness continuing.
    We quiver in fear at the prospect of the way and the light returning to her rightful throne.

    Who is this saviour I hear you say?

    I can say no more.
  • Jonathan said:

    Change leader all you like. Tory problems run far deeper than the leader.
    Is that a reason not to change the leader though, if the leader is a dud?

    Simon Clarke may be a nutter, but that doesn't mean Sunak isn't a dud.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    edited January 2024
    Fuck sake. If changing leader limited the level of defeat then I get it, but I doubt it will.

    Short of something out of the clouds, they will lose by a fair margin no matter.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,249


    Christopher Hope📝
    @christopherhope
    ·
    29m
    I am picking up speculation from two Conservative MPs that a serving Cabinet minister could be on the verge of quitting to destabilise the Prime Minister further.
    More at
    @GBNEWS
    .

    Speculation...could...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    O/T

    Just chosen a random home video tape to watch, and it's walking around Toronto on 7th July 1997. (Someone helpfully said so on the video). I wonder if anyone on YouTube would be interested if I posted it on there? Probably not.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795


    ……..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Is that a reason not to change the leader though, if the leader is a dud?

    Simon Clarke may be a nutter, but that doesn't mean Sunak isn't a dud.
    People thought Sunak was the answer. He wasn’t.

    Changing leader now is like buying a shiny new tracksuit the day before a marathon race, to cover up the fact you’ve not trained and been on the booze for 5 years.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,290
    edited January 2024
    The only way is Boris.


    I tried to find some early 2019 PB threads, from when I was on a hiatus from the site… where better than some late 2018 predictions from Alastair Meeks

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/26/with-just-five-days-to-go-the-pb-alastair-meeks-predictions-for-2019/

    Not having a dig at Alastair, he got 3/5 right, but neither he, nor anyone in comments underneath suggested anything like what eventually happened. So things can change, the unexpected occurs, it’s an extremely volatile business lately. The best thing the Tories can do is somehow get Bojo back; their 2019 voters actually like him, he was the PM people voted for. How I don’t know, but it’s their only hope
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295



    ……..

    Not big enough.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,249
    edited January 2024
    ohnotnow said:

    Have we reached 'Peak HYUFD'?
    One can only approach Peak HYUFD asymptotically, never achieve it. He inspires us to greater and greater heights, until the epiphany is achieved: this is the Tao of HYUFD.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    In comparison to NH in Iowa the exit poll there had 9 out of 10 saying conservative, roughly two thirds denying Biden won and just under half saying they were Maga .

    In NH they also asked about abortion. A majority would oppose a federal ban on most abortions .

  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,295
    You know you're struggling to depose of the Prime Minister when the leader of the coup is a backbench MP who isn't even recognised by most people who spend their free time posting on a political betting website...

    I suspect this all blows over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    DavidL said:

    Are these the same citizen or immigrants as are boosting our economy? Getting subsidised housing and disproportionate benefits on the back of larger families? Something doesn't quite compute.
    I suspect it's a bit of a barbell: quite a few very high income new citizens, and lots of very low income ones, with not that many in the middle.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    edited January 2024

    Thats an interesting case, thanks for posting it. Was there a particular reason you posted it? It doesn’t prove you right.
    It proves Judaism can be a matter of religious observance of the Jewish faith
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Not big enough.
    I don’t want to give too much away
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,499

    Bridgend stays Tory and the Vale goes red?

    This is looking like a Tory landslide. Who is the unnamed Tory PM? A job share between Ant and Dec?
    Winston Churchill's corpse?

    That poll is yet more proof that hypothetical surveys are worthless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007

    Again, what the flippety flip are you talking about?

    My father's parents divorced too, and both remarried. As a result I grew up with bonus grandparents, who are not biologically related but they were always my grandparents.

    My grandparents in their second marriages were happy for fifty years as having divorced from the wrong person for them, they were now married to the right person and they were happy.

    And the family was better for it, as the toxic fighting that happened prior to the separation stopped as time went on.

    Commitment to children doesn't end at divorce. Indeed commitment to children means ensuring they have happy homes, not sad ones.
    And if the mother for example never remarried while the father does, the children get visits from him once or twice a month at most and the family unit is then effectively broken harming the children in the process and their mother
  • Jonathan said:

    Change leader all you like. Tory problems run far deeper than the leader.
    Yes, I'd agree. The Tories did a mega brand trashing: Brexit, Boris, Truss. Toryism is no longer a concept associated with anything other than the bringing chaos, stupidity and misery. How can any future leader counter that?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited January 2024
    What time do results start coming through from NH? (Excluding Dixville Notch).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,290
    isam said:

    The only way is Boris.


    I tried to find some early 2019 PB threads, from when I was on a hiatus from the site… where better than some late 2018 predictions from Alastair Meeks

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/26/with-just-five-days-to-go-the-pb-alastair-meeks-predictions-for-2019/

    Not having a dig at Alastair, he got 3/5 right, but neither he, nor anyone in comments underneath suggested anything like what eventually happened. So things can change, the unexpected occurs, it’s an extremely volatile business lately. The best thing the Tories can do is somehow get Bojo back; their 2019 voters actually like him, he was the PM people voted for. How I don’t know, but it’s their only hope

    They have to get an MP in a very safe, leave inclined seat to resign, parachute Boris in and hand him the leadership

    It is shit or bust, and their only hope

    Give that MP the pick of seats where incumbents are stepping down, or a golden handshake
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    nico679 said:

    In comparison to NH in Iowa the exit poll there had 9 out of 10 saying conservative, roughly two thirds denying Biden won and just under half saying they were Maga .

    In NH they also asked about abortion. A majority would oppose a federal ban on most abortions .

    Based on the exits, NH looks close to 50% Trump 50% Haley potentially.

    Which would be a big boost to Haley and a blow to Trump even if he scraped home after his big Iowa win
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    edited January 2024
    Speaking of short people: Recently I have been thinking about Africa's pygmies. As I understand it, they are not always treated kindly by their neighbors in central Africa. Perhaps a private group should start making the argument that at least some pygmies deserve US refugee status. Even if they all don't have PhDs in computer science, and/or great wealth.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    HYUFD said:

    My father's parents rowed from time to time, they ended up divorced, he had to support his mother through much of his adult life himself while his father remarried.

    Of course in your self centred libertarian nirvana self sacrifice and commitment to marriage and your children is irrelevant but no surprise there
    I was very confused... when you wrote "rowing", I had this image of them on the Thames in a little boat.

    More seriously, is there any actual evidence that libertarians are more likely to get divorced?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,241
    isam said:

    They have to get an MP in a very safe, leave inclined seat to resign, parachute Boris in and hand him the leadership

    It is shit or bust, and their only hope

    Give that MP the pick of seats where incumbents are stepping down, or a golden handshake
    Two parody posts in tandem. You are on fire! Johnson indeed, comedy gold!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,408
    edited January 2024
    HYUFD said:

    And if the mother for example never remarried while the father does, the children get visits from him once or twice a month at most and the family unit is then effectively broken harming the children in the process and their mother
    If the mother and father hate each other and argue all the time then the family unit is already broken even if no divorce ever happens.

    You're acting as if divorce causes the breakdown of families, rather than being the outcome of it.

    Both sets of my grandparents divorced. My mum's mum never remarried and I never saw my mum's dad in my memory as he left and was never seen from again. My nan was happier living on her own and supporting herself than she was living with him.

    I'm lucky that my parents marriage never broke down, they're still married, but both of them were glad when their parents divorced as before the divorce for both of them was the worst period they had by far.

    Marriage failures are awful, and bad on children, but marriages fail before the divorce not because of it. Resolving the failure and moving on is the first step to healing, not making the problem worse. The first step to recovery is acknowledging and accepting the problem.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    DougSeal said:

    Jews have always been considered a people (an ethic group if you prefer) by themselves and others. You betray a profound and worrying ignorance by confusing the Jewish People with Judaism as a religion.
    Indeed, Hitler himself wrote in Mein Kampf (and I'm slightly paraphrasing here) that Judaism is a race not a religion.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    One safe NH prediction: Trump will declare he won. (I am a little disappointed he hasn't already claimed he won Dixville Notch.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,241



    ……..

    Why do you always insist on posting this, random woman takes a dump in her trousers photo?
  • Andy_JS said:

    What time do results start coming through from NH? (Excluding Dixville Notch).

    Polls are now closing in most of New Hampshire, though a in a few towns (don't know which ones) polls are open for another hour, until 8pm local.

    Results should start coming in shortly, from small towns with small numbers of voters.

    Others will take longer, especially if there's still a line of people who showed up on time, but have yet to vote.

    NOTE that some towns, maybe most, will count Republican primary ballots first, then Democratic, due to need to scrutinize and count Democratic write-ins for Biden.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    Andy_JS said:

    What time do results start coming through from NH? (Excluding Dixville Notch).

    Polls - I think - close at 7pm or 8pm (i.e. now or 1am). I would therefore expect us to start seeing results coming through in the next 25 minutes or so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    OK all,

    I'm putting on a very small, totally speculative, bet on Nikki Haley to win New Hampshire.
  • One safe NH prediction: Trump will declare he won. (I am a little disappointed he hasn't already claimed he won Dixville Notch.)

    image
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    nico679 said:

    In comparison to NH in Iowa the exit poll there had 9 out of 10 saying conservative, roughly two thirds denying Biden won and just under half saying they were Maga .

    In NH they also asked about abortion. A majority would oppose a federal ban on most abortions .

    The abortion issue is the Democrats most potent mobiliser and they have to keep raising it
  • viewcode said:

    One can only approach Peak HYUFD asymptotically, never achieve it. He inspires us to greater and greater heights, until the epiphany is achieved: this is the Tao of HYUFD.
    Elevatio ab absurdo?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    isam said:
    Remind me of my predictions, and how I was slapped down by @Leon for being in California and not knowing anything about British politics...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    Yokes said:

    The abortion issue is the Democrats most potent mobiliser and they have to keep raising it
    Absolutely right.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Polls are now closing in most of New Hampshire, though a in a few towns (don't know which ones) polls are open for another hour, until 8pm local.

    Results should start coming in shortly, from small towns with small numbers of voters.

    Others will take longer, especially if there's still a line of people who showed up on time, but have yet to vote.

    NOTE that some towns, maybe most, will count Republican primary ballots first, then Democratic, due to need to scrutinize and count Democratic write-ins for Biden.
    Thanks SSI.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    edited January 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Indeed, Hitler himself wrote in Mein Kampf (and I'm slightly paraphrasing here) that Judaism is a race not a religion.
    Yet it was those of the Jewish religion he primarily exterminated not racial Blacks or Asians or even those of races of other nations he conquered.

    Irrespective of that however fine Bart it seems is OK with discriminating against Christians, Muslims or Hindus or religious Orthodox Jews (if you want to ignore those of only Jewish 'ethnicity' rather than committed religion) as long as nobody else is discriminated against
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,408
    edited January 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Yet it was those of the Jewish religion he primarily exterminated not racial Blacks or Asians or even those of races of other nations he conquered.

    Irrespective of that however fine Bart it seems is OK with discriminating against Christians, Muslims or Hindus or religious Orthodox Jews (if you want to ignore those of only Jewish 'ethnicity' rather than committed religion) as long as nobody else is discriminated against
    I never said that. I think discriminating against anyone is wrong.

    But beliefs are a matter of personal choice, not a characteristic you're born with, and the state should not be involved with that.

    PS as others have said it was those of the Jewish race he primarily exterminated. Those of the Jewish race at the time were predominantly of the Jewish religion too, but they were all targeted regardless of religion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007

    If the mother and father hate each other and argue all the time then the family unit is already broken even if no divorce ever happens.

    You're acting as if divorce causes the breakdown of families, rather than being the outcome of it.

    Both sets of my grandparents divorced. My mum's mum never remarried and I never saw my mum's dad in my memory as he left and was never seen from again. My nan was happier living on her own and supporting herself than she was living with him.

    I'm lucky that my parents marriage never broke down, they're still married, but both of them were glad when their parents divorced as before the divorce for both of them was the worst period they had by far.

    Marriage failures are awful, and bad on children, but marriages fail before the divorce not because of it. Resolving the failure and moving on is the first step to healing, not making the problem worse. The first step to recovery is acknowledging and accepting the problem.
    The mother often doesn't hate the father, instead it may be the father's infidelities (as in the case of Clarke) and failure to fully commit to the marriage and vows he made that is the problem.

    The father may then divorce the mother, leaving her near destitute, with children to largely bring up herself while the father sets up with his new lover
  • Haley 739
    Trump 467

    Concord ward 6
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict

    Based on the initial precincts reporting, this isn't going to be a total Trump blowout."

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749948412110254359
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited January 2024
    NH Rep primary with estimated 2% reporting


    Nikki Haley
    2,379 54.2%
    Donald J. Trump
    1,983 45.2%
    Ron DeSantis
    28 0.6%
    Total reported
    4,390

    Source NYT
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    edited January 2024

    It was those of the Jewish race he primarily exterminated.

    I never said that. I think discriminating against anyone is wrong.

    But beliefs are a matter of personal choice, not a characteristic you're born with, and the state should not be involved with that.
    'Making religion a protected characteristic was a terrible mistake.'


    So in your own words you think discriminating against the religious is fine, including discriminating against them based on their right to practice their faith
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    betfair exchange

    Trump 1.03 / 1.08
    Haley 16 / 44

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223236887
  • HYUFD said:

    The mother often doesn't hate the father, instead it may be the father's infidelities (as in the case of Clarke) and failure to fully commit to the marriage and vows he made that is the problem.

    The father may then divorce the mother, leaving her near destitute, with children to largely bring up herself while the father sets up with his new lover
    What kind of world do you live in where the father divorcing the mother leaves her near destitute? That's not how divorce works in this country and men haven't been the "breadwinner" in this country for decades.

    If the father is a piece of shit who'll abandon his kids then good riddance to him.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    edited January 2024
    Haley 849
    Trump 1169

    Manchester ward 6

    These are ticker tape results from the ballot counting machines, first time ever I've seen a result "declaration" in the US.

    Looks like the ballots are scanned on entry and then the results spool out on the ticker tape once voting closes - very impressive.
  • NYT - NH Democratic primary with est 2% reported

    Unprocessed Write-Ins (mostly for Joe Biden)
    1,396 74.6%
    Dean Phillips
    414 22.1%
    Marianne Williamson
    61 3.3%
    Total reported
    1,871
  • HYUFD said:

    'Making religion a protected characteristic was a terrible mistake.'


    So in your own words you think discriminating against the religious is fine, including discriminating against them based on their right to practice their faith
    No.

    Yours are not words I said. I think discriminating against people based on their religion is wrong.

    I also think the state should not be involved in all decisions of right or wrong.

    The state protecting characteristics people are born with is more justifiable to me than protecting personal choices.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    'Making religion a protected characteristic was a terrible mistake.'


    So in your own words you think discriminating against the religious is fine, including discriminating against them based on their right to practice their faith
    I don't think there should be any "protected characteristics". Everyone should be entirely equal before the law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007

    No.

    Yours are not words I said. I think discriminating against people based on their religion is wrong.

    I also think the state should not be involved in all decisions of right or wrong.

    The state protecting characteristics people are born with is more justifiable to me than protecting personal choices.
    So as I said you are fine discriminating against people based on their practice of their faith
  • HYUFD said:

    So as I said you are fine discriminating against people based on their practice of their faith
    And as I said: No.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007

    NYT - NH Democratic primary with est 2% reported

    Unprocessed Write-Ins (mostly for Joe Biden)
    1,396 74.6%
    Dean Phillips
    414 22.1%
    Marianne Williamson
    61 3.3%
    Total reported
    1,871

    Looks like Biden (who isn't even on the ballot paper) will get a higher percentage than Trump does in NH via write ins
  • Haley 849
    Trump 1169

    Manchester ward 6

    These are ticker tape results from the ballot counting machines, first time ever I've seen a result "declaration" in the US

    In NH the primary is officially part of a town meeting (old Yankee institution) and so they often have the town head poobah (NOT official title!) announce the results as tabulated by town clerk & staff.
  • Interesting that results are being released even though voting open for 40 mins in some areas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007

    What kind of world do you live in where the father divorcing the mother leaves her near destitute? That's not how divorce works in this country and men haven't been the "breadwinner" in this country for decades.

    If the father is a piece of shit who'll abandon his kids then good riddance to him.
    Exactly the kind of world my father grew up in and not all married women work or ever have done.

    Plenty of fathers also abandon their kids and disappear never to be seen again rather than committing to marriage
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    HYUFD said:

    The mother often doesn't hate the father, instead it may be the father's infidelities (as in the case of Clarke) and failure to fully commit to the marriage and vows he made that is the problem.

    The father may then divorce the mother, leaving her near destitute, with children to largely bring up herself while the father sets up with his new lover
    So, tell me more about this new lover I will be able to attract?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    rcs1000 said:

    So, tell me more about this new lover I will be able to attract?
    It is not funny, it destroys families
  • Most of the votes counted so far, are from the larger towns

    > Haley is winning (so far) in Concord, Dover (U of NH), Keene, Portsmouth

    > Trump is winning (ditto) in Claremont, Laconia, Manchester (biggest city)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    HYUFD said:

    It is not funny, it destroys families
    Look, I'm just trying to understand my options here.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    I've seen enough: Donald Trump (R) wins the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, defeating Nikki Haley (R).
    12:20 AM · Jan 24, 2024"

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252
  • HYUFD said:

    Exactly the kind of world my father grew up in and not all married women work or ever have done.

    Plenty of fathers also abandon their kids and disappear never to be seen again rather than committing to marriage
    Good riddance to them then. Shit fathers from the sound of it.

    Why would you want shit fathers to stick around?

    Would you prefer it if they remained around in an unhappy marriage, with him openly screwing whoever he wants, showing no regard to his children or his wife while remaining at home leaving her and the kids miserable and unable to move on without him?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    Trump's lead is widening in New Hampshire; he's now six points up with 7% of votes in.
  • HYUFD said:

    It is not funny, it destroys families
    The families were already destroyed before the divorce.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    Andy_JS said:

    "Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    I've seen enough: Donald Trump (R) wins the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, defeating Nikki Haley (R).
    12:20 AM · Jan 24, 2024"

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252

    I think that's probably right: 53 - 47 or thereabouts.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think that's probably right: 53 - 47 or thereabouts.
    Disappointing but unexpected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007

    The families were already destroyed before the divorce.
    No they were not, Clarke's family certainly wasn't.

    He abandoned his wife, who still very much loved him and the family home where his child was for his new lover
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    HYUFD said:

    No they were not, Clarke's family certainly wasn't.

    He abandoned his wife, who still very much loved him and the family home where his child was for his new lover
    Wait. Which Clarke are we talking about?
  • HYUFD said:

    No they were not, Clarke's family certainly wasn't.

    He abandoned his wife, who still very much loved him and the family home where his child was for his new lover
    Clarke's family certainly was.

    He abandoned them. The divorce didn't abandon them, he did. His choice, his actions.

    The divorce just finalised what had already happened.

    Marriages end. When they do, its better to divorce and move on than to remain trapped and unhappy. Would it be better in your eyes if he was screwing his new lover openly while staying in the family house?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    rcs1000 said:

    I think that's probably right: 53 - 47 or thereabouts.
    Still Haley would have kept it close enough to move on and she will
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    edited January 2024

    Clarke's family certainly was.

    He abandoned them. The divorce didn't abandon them, he did. His choice, his actions.

    The divorce just finalised what had already happened.

    Marriages end. When they do, its better to divorce and move on than to remain trapped and unhappy. Would it be better in your eyes if he was screwing his new lover openly while staying in the family house?
    The divorce allowed him the excuse to set up with his lover and abandon his wife rather than return to his wife and commit to the marriage and full time to his child.

    It goes back to the original point that if you make marriage vows you stick to them not just jump on the next round of lust to whoever takes your fancy
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    HYUFD said:

    The divorce allowed him the excuse to set up with his lover and abandon his wife rather than return to his wife and commit to the marriage and full time to his child
    But is he happy?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,809
    Andy_JS said:

    "Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    I've seen enough: Donald Trump (R) wins the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, defeating Nikki Haley (R).
    12:20 AM · Jan 24, 2024"

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252

    I had a sense of déjà vu reading the words, "Dave Wasserman. I've seen enough: Donald Trump wins."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    rcs1000 said:

    But is he happy?
    I couldn't care less, he had made vows of marriage and should have stuck to them
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    I had a sense of déjà vu reading the words, "Dave Wasserman. I've seen enough: Donald Trump wins."
    Has Dave Wasserman ever got a call wrong? Not sure. Probably not.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Andy_JS said:

    Has Dave Wasserman ever got a call wrong? Not sure. Probably not.
    We should ask Mrs/Mr Wasserman.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,809
    rcs1000 said:

    I think that's probably right: 53 - 47 or thereabouts.
    He's saying it's on a trajectory for a result in line with the polling average, which I guess is a bigger win than that.
  • HYUFD said:

    The divorce allowed him the excuse to set up with his lover and abandon his wife rather than return to his wife and commit to the marriage and full time to his child.

    It goes back to the original point that if you make marriage vows you stick to them not just jump on the next round of lust to whoever takes your fancy
    Wait a second, did he have a new lover before or after the divorce?

    Because you implied before it was adultery during marriage, not after divorce.

    If he got married, then divorced, then met someone, then fair enough and the new lover has nothing to do with the divorce.
    If he got married, then got a new lover, then got a divorce, then the divorce is because the marriage broke down - it didn't cause it. The breakdown had already happened the moment he got a new lover.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    rcs1000 said:

    I think that's probably right: 53 - 47 or thereabouts.
    Close enough for her to get enough funding to stay in it and hope something turns up?
  • He's saying it's on a trajectory for a result in line with the polling average, which I guess is a bigger win than that.
    Sadly if the results so far are from the larger towns, then yes, better results for Trump to come.

    For shame.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Donald Trump 51.5%
    17,498

    Nikki Haley 47.5%
    16,127
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,897
    Is Wassermann positive?
  • Speaking (if we must) of divorce, it was Nelson Rockefeller's divorce of his first wife and subsequent marriage to his second wife - who gave up custody of her four young children - that derailed his 1964 Presidential campaign.

    It was certainly a factor in his coming in 2nd in the 1964 NH Republican primary, behind a write-in candidate: former Mass Gov. and US Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, a fellow moderate GOP rich guy politico and poster child for the Eastern Establishment.

    His marital status also contributed to his decisive loss to Barry Goldwater in the California primary, which effectively won the GOP nomination for AuH20.

    Interesting to note that just two years later, in 1966, Ronald Reagan, a divorced and remarried man, was nominated by Republicans and elected Governor of California. Putting him in poll position to advance the Conservative Revolution launched by Goldwater, and ride that wave all the way to the White House.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,007
    biggles said:

    Close enough for her to get enough funding to stay in it and hope something turns up?
    She will stay in it until the end, for starters he has multiple court cases to face over the next few months, including criminal
This discussion has been closed.