politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leade
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Once again the PB experts have been proved right, this time about Ed.0
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Huzzah
'Ed’s not dead and the Labour party rulebook will help him stay that way'
http://www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk/2014/11/eds-not-dead-and-the-labour-party-rulebook-will-help-him-stay-that-way/0 -
If they (SNP VI) have a much higher intention to vote (~85%) at around 5.5% it would come out to 8% in the stated GB VI with a 60% turnout filter.Pulpstar said:How on earth can the SNP be on 8% when Scotland is ~ 8% of the population of the UK - that implies 90+% of the vote there.
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The same thought crossed my mind - 35% seems like a pipe-dream, based on present polling.TheWatcher said:So whats Labour's new Firewall number now?
With Ed at the helm? the floor's the limit...0 -
A very good lunch and you are back posting by 1430? Clearly different definitions apply in Bedfordshire! A good lunch doesn't normally finish until tea-time it is normally impossible to see a screen let alone post coherently after a very good lunch.MikeSmithson said:Just back from very good lunch. I've added EdM’s personal ratings data to the header
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Was that before or after the hard hitting interview with Dapper Laughs?AndyJS said:It's ironic that Allegra Stratton on Newsnight last night was saying that, after a torrid week, Ed Miliband had managed to get through the worst of the jitters.
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Kemptown went to 7 recounts at this election, the joint highest (with Peterborough, 1966)...0
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Handy chart of leadership satisfaction ratings in the run up to the last few elections here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2P1SrlCMAA8yJA.jpg0 -
Ed's personal ratings are a catastrophe.MikeSmithson said:Just back from very good lunch. I've added EdM’s personal ratings data to the header
Can Labour really go into the election with him leading them? I mean really? That's the one danger for the Tories - Things get soooooooo bad for Ed that he has to go.0 -
And still got his marbles. He too thinks Ed's crap.RodCrosby said:Healey must be almost the last surviving politician from this TV program. Still with us at 97...
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Hmmm, I wonder what Nigel, Paul Nuttal and Peter Robinson had to discuss today. I'd love to have been a fly on the wall:
Pleased to meet with @paulnuttallukip whilst in Brussels today with @DianeDoddsMEP. pic.twitter.com/uHNfCEvEyF
— Peter Robinson (@DUPleader) November 12, 2014A very constructive meeting today with @Nigel_Farage on issues of mutual concern. pic.twitter.com/B1o9AAxPIN
— Peter Robinson (@DUPleader) November 12, 20140 -
Mr. Eagles, it's only a flesh wound!0
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Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.Anorak said:Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138
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So rather than be the rascal who knew what his officials were doing or the incompetent who didn't he's chosen the incompetence defence. In the EU probably the wisest course!antifrank said:Meanwhile, Jean-Claude Juncker is enduring an interesting news day:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ffb68a4-6a66-11e4-8fca-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product&siteedition=uk#axzz3Ikovyobt
" “I am not the architect of the Luxembourgish model,” he told reporters, adding that the Grand Duchy’s tax authority had acted on an “autonomous basis”, with little oversight from the finance minister – a job he also held for much of his time as prime minister. The commission president did concede he was “politically” responsible for the affair.""0 -
Has EdM really escaped defenestration? I hope so. Probably has until end of November before politics starts shutting down for Xmas.0
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UKIP-DUP Confidence and supply for the Tories ?0
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Unexpected Labour gain in Glasgow...0
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The last few days have seen Cameron dancing a little to the Ukip tune and gaining marginally as a result. Ed's lovesick romance with Europe and being kicked when he's down has meant a marginal decrease in his and Labour's ratings.
Overall, only a tiny change but it's the direction of travel. Ed could come out with "Let's trust the electorate and have a referendum, and a real discussion about immigration," but he won't. So he's locked into a slow death spiral unless something unforeseen crops up. Europe acting sensibly or Ukip imploding.
I was totally wrong: I assumed Ukip would drift down to around 10% and the Eurocrats would mouth sweet nothings. It could still happen but it's looking bad for Labour.0 -
All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
A bigger question is can the Tories get more than 35%. There isn't a lot of evidence that they can these days.0 -
Mail graph on Gudio's site answered a question I asked before lunch.
.
http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/miliband-is-least-popular-leader-since-polling-began/
Yes he really has the worst ratings for an opposition Leader and the Leader of the Govt. Quite remarkable. Still there is (I hope) no sense of panic in Labour.0 -
Of course they cannot . They are in this poll at 58% in Scotland which has 9% of the seats in Westminster so their UK share would be around 5 1/2 % or perhaps 6 % if the turnout were to be much higher in Scotland .Pulpstar said:How on earth can the SNP be on 8% when Scotland is ~ 8% of the population of the UK - that implies 90+% of the vote there.
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Before (I think).FrancisUrquhart said:
Was that before or after the hard hitting interview with Dapper Laughs?AndyJS said:It's ironic that Allegra Stratton on Newsnight last night was saying that, after a torrid week, Ed Miliband had managed to get through the worst of the jitters.
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Well, it's always nice to be insulted by someone's very first post.hardpawn said:Stodge wrote: 'The Con-Lab swing on the certain to vote is 2% but on the "All Expressing" it's 3.5% and that makes a huge difference.' etc....
So a reduction in Mili's lead from 10% months ago to around zero now with 6 months to go when historically, polls almost always move towards the Gov. by a few % points is not very bad news?. So much for my belief that here I could escape from the airheads on other forums. This is so scraping the barrel that it is almost admirable. The spiral does not stop here; stop thinking with your heart instead of your head.
No one knows how the Conservatives' number will move between now and May - might go up, might stay the same, might go down. The polls didn't move toward the last Government thought they did move away from the main Opposition in 2009-10.
Perhaps someone else has borrowed the family brain cell today.
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Chalfont and Worsthorne are still around at (almost) 95 and 91 respectively...0
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1964 election — Labour failing to win targets in Bristol NW and Reading. The same thing could happen in 6 months' time, except Reading is now split into two seats.0
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Kippers have peaked too early - their tanks on Labours lawn have taken out their ally Ed Miliband - their great hope to be relevant in the next parliament - looks like their Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is under threat..TheWatcher said:
Leading to a UKIP majority in 2020 (or so their strategy goes).Bob__Sykes said:
Because we don't elect a PM, we elect 650 MPs.SeanT said:I just don't see how Labour can win with a leader as unpopular as Miliband, and I don't see how they can change perceptions now.
Nobody wants Miliband as PM, but that doesn't mean we're safe. With UKIP screwing over the Tories, the accidental Labour leader will become the accidental PM.
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I'm severely pissed off with Russell Brand for telling va yoof not to vote, since it looks like (see the Mori poll for example) the Tories will do better than expected because a lot of people just won't bother to vote. I just tweeted him to this effect and got the following reply: "my message ain't don't vote. My message is revolt." Yeah, right. Knob.0
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Going on the assumption that the smaller parties will be squeezed when the election comes, it's fanciful to suggest that none at all will go back to Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
.
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Mr. Dadge, mildly surprised he replied. More surprised anyone's listening to him.0
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The evidence of the Labour decline has been there for quite a while in the by-election results in Newark;Heywood & Middleton ,opinion poll numbers at R&S; recent local authority by- elections. These all seem to show they are doing no better and probably worse than 2010.0
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The difference is that Brown held onto Labour's massive advantage in Scotland. I don't see Ed following that up. Scotland delivered 41 MPs to Labour in 2010, on the current polling that could be in single figures in 2015 and it could wipe 2 points off Labour's GB score. Additionally, whatever his faults, Brown still had a lead on economic competence compared to Dave. A narrow lead, but a lead nonetheless. It was Dave's personal ratings and his strong NHS position that delivered the 307 seats, not economic competence. Ed won't have that either, and it seems that since Dave has pledged to keep NHS spending growing in real terms from 2015 the gap between Con and Lab on the issue has narrowed, plus the Tories have retaken the lead on education after ridding themselves of the personally toxic Gove (though I think he was a good minister and the reforms are necessary, it is clear that he is too toxic to carry into the election in such a high profile position). In addition the Tories are far, far ahead on economic competence, and Dave is 27 points ahead on his personal ratings, and if the economy continues to improve that gap may become wider.FrancisUrquhart said:All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
A bigger question is can the Tories get more than 35%. There isn't a lot of evidence that they can these days.
Look at it this way, on 29% Labour have lost as many votes in the centre from their 2010 voters as they have gained on the left from Lib Dems. If Ed continues to chase the leftist vote he may continue to lose centrist votes. Additionally UKIP's appeal to traditional socially conservative WWC Labour voters is something of a wildcard in the North. There is no guarantee they will stick to Labour after years of being told they have nowhere else to go.0 -
Ha!
@PickardJE: Ironic: Call for Labour unity from New Statesman, which began recent bout of grim introspection: "The Labour front bench must rally round."0 -
Looks like a winter war is about to begin.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.Anorak said:Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/11/nato-russian-troops-ukraine-now-2014111214105962679.html0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
A bigger question is can the Tories get more than 35%. There isn't a lot of evidence that they can these days.
4% Postal vote fraud?FrancisUrquhart said:All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
A bigger question is can the Tories get more than 35%. There isn't a lot of evidence that they can these days.0 -
Plenty of Scouse accents in Flintshire...0
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Averaging out the most recent polls from Ashcroft, Opinium, ICM, MORI, Yougov, Survation, and Populus gives:-
Labour 32%, Conservative 31%, UKIP 16%, Others 20%.0 -
NewsSense™Scott_P said:MarqueeMark said:Hur hur hur. If only tim were still here.
Although I suspect he was shrewd enough to see something like this coming, with Ed at the helm, made his excuses and left.©tim
"He looks to be doing ok to me"
I'm on Miliband Next PM at 9/4 taken in May 2012.
Surprised you don't copy some of his tweets on here... Little has changed0 -
This is reminiscent ofTGOHF said:
Kippers have peaked too early - their tanks on Labours lawn have taken out their ally Ed Miliband - their great hope to be relevant in the next parliament - looks like their Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is under threat..TheWatcher said:
Leading to a UKIP majority in 2020 (or so their strategy goes).Bob__Sykes said:
Because we don't elect a PM, we elect 650 MPs.SeanT said:I just don't see how Labour can win with a leader as unpopular as Miliband, and I don't see how they can change perceptions now.
Nobody wants Miliband as PM, but that doesn't mean we're safe. With UKIP screwing over the Tories, the accidental Labour leader will become the accidental PM.
'Ukip just don't get 15% in yougov anymore' from the summer isn't it?0 -
MikeK said:
Hmmm, I wonder what Nigel, Paul Nuttal and Peter Robinson had to discuss today. I'd love to have been a fly on the wall:
Pleased to meet with @paulnuttallukip whilst in Brussels today with @DianeDoddsMEP. pic.twitter.com/uHNfCEvEyF
— Peter Robinson (@DUPleader) November 12, 2014A very constructive meeting today with @Nigel_Farage on issues of mutual concern. pic.twitter.com/B1o9AAxPIN
— Peter Robinson (@DUPleader) November 12, 2014
Trousering allowances?0 -
There was a dead cat bounce on the way to single figures.isam said:
This is reminiscent ofTGOHF said:
Kippers have peaked too early - their tanks on Labours lawn have taken out their ally Ed Miliband - their great hope to be relevant in the next parliament - looks like their Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is under threat..TheWatcher said:
Leading to a UKIP majority in 2020 (or so their strategy goes).Bob__Sykes said:
Because we don't elect a PM, we elect 650 MPs.SeanT said:I just don't see how Labour can win with a leader as unpopular as Miliband, and I don't see how they can change perceptions now.
Nobody wants Miliband as PM, but that doesn't mean we're safe. With UKIP screwing over the Tories, the accidental Labour leader will become the accidental PM.
'Ukip just don't get 15% in yougov anymore' from the summer isn't it?0 -
Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various methodologies.
Byelection swingback: -1.1% n/c
Hanretty: 2.1% new
Fisher: 3.8% up
2009-2010 repeat: 3.8% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 11.4% up
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Surprised you don't copy some of his tweets on here... Little has changedisam said:
NewsSense™Scott_P said:MarqueeMark said:Hur hur hur. If only tim were still here.
Although I suspect he was shrewd enough to see something like this coming, with Ed at the helm, made his excuses and left.©tim
"He looks to be doing ok to me"
I'm on Miliband Next PM at 9/4 taken in May 2012.
Seems Labour decline has resulted in rapid offensive tweeting disease. Luckily it seems very few people follow him.0 -
Richard Dimbleby surveying "the girls" in the studio.0
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HurstLlama wrote:
Feel free to list more because what you have given is a list of, arguably, what the Conservative government has done in the past four years or so. That wasn't the challenge though, was it? The question I asked was what could Cameron and Co say or do to lift their vote share to the high thirties at the GE next May.
I don't think gratitude for past performance will do it on its own and I don't think fear of Labour will be enough either. Either or a combination of both may well lift the Conservatives to maybe 34/35%, but where is that extra 3/4% suggested by Mr. Patrick going to come from?
Mr Eagles, I seek not an argument only enlightenment.
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Possible Enlightenment:
A 3-4% movement to the Tories within the 6 month period before an election has been the case in almost every GE when the Tories have been in power. Why? Think about divorce proceedings and alternatives, etc. It is certain to happen. Around 6 months ago Labour were showing 6-9% leads; already this has almost disappeared.
Ashcroft's poll yesterday offers a great insight into the thinking of ex Tory kippers (many say they will return). So the above swing could well be greater than normal.
Even at the moment, 38% think Cameron is doing well. That is additional scope for the additional 3-4%.
Mili is performing worse day by day. In polling when people are reminded that he is leader of Labour, the Tories increase their lead (or reduce deficit) by 3%.
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To compound a bad day for little Eddie:
Superb @Adamstoon1 cover for this week's @spectator pic.twitter.com/yEnS77IdlL
— Chris Deerin (@chrisdeerin) November 12, 20140 -
What's Tim's Twitter address?0
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Vote Nigel, get Ed
New Statesman @NewStatesman
"I'd do a deal with the devil," Farage tells the NS about a possible Labour-Ukip deal next May - in tomorrow's issue http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour …0 -
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour
Is this an unforced error, as Guido suggests? Or is Farage more concerned at shoring up his new supporters?0 -
Mr Farage has apparently been cornered into saying he would , in extremis, prop up an ed Milliband government.0
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http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/
Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.0 -
The full quote is fine, but it allows the Tories to spin it as Vote Nigel, Get Ed.Tissue_Price said:http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour
Is this an unforced error, as Guido suggests? Or is Farage more concerned at shoring up his new supporters?0 -
Thats right and thats why it is totally bonkers to split the right wing anti labour vote. Even on this performance they could get in, and these numbers are reliant on them doing badly in Scotland.FrancisUrquhart said:All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
A bigger question is can the Tories get more than 35%. There isn't a lot of evidence that they can these days.
To be honest I expect Labour to do a U turn on EVEL, but not sure it will help now. I think they made a mistake over iScotland result in not going along with Cameron in saying Yes to more devolution but yes to EVEL as well. By saying No to the latter it made them look to be back tracking on the former to the Scots and made them look anti English in England. lose lose.
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Even in 1964, Labour suffered four losses.
Identifying the equivalent in 2015 would pay handsome dividends.
Balls has to be worth a punt...0 -
@PickardJE: Fascinating rumour from @Kevin_Maguire in NS suggesting that Lord Sainsbury is prepared to fund a future Chuka Ummuna leadership bid.
Sooner rather than later...0 -
Eton & Slough, Con GAIN by 11 votes...0
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Whatever happened to muck raker Maguire's claim that Labour had lots more recordings of Tories saying dodgy things at fringe and private meetings?Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Fascinating rumour from @Kevin_Maguire in NS suggesting that Lord Sainsbury is prepared to fund a future Chuka Ummuna leadership bid.
Sooner rather than later...
Maybe he is saying them for use on a smear website.0 -
"Well, I have to be slightly fond of Philip Hollobone, because he and I were in the same year at school together"
From the Farage interview.0 -
It's getting very late in the day now for the UKIP vote to decline.isam said:
This is reminiscent ofTGOHF said:
Kippers have peaked too early - their tanks on Labours lawn have taken out their ally Ed Miliband - their great hope to be relevant in the next parliament - looks like their Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is under threat..TheWatcher said:
Leading to a UKIP majority in 2020 (or so their strategy goes).Bob__Sykes said:
Because we don't elect a PM, we elect 650 MPs.SeanT said:I just don't see how Labour can win with a leader as unpopular as Miliband, and I don't see how they can change perceptions now.
Nobody wants Miliband as PM, but that doesn't mean we're safe. With UKIP screwing over the Tories, the accidental Labour leader will become the accidental PM.
'Ukip just don't get 15% in yougov anymore' from the summer isn't it?
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They really do have a death wish.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Fascinating rumour from @Kevin_Maguire in NS suggesting that Lord Sainsbury is prepared to fund a future Chuka Ummuna leadership bid.
Sooner rather than later...
Maybe they'll move their 2015 Conference forward to January? It's the only way to dislodge Ed...0 -
There's some thought that the Russians are going to really kick-off shortly.MikeK said:
Looks like a winter war is about to begin.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.Anorak said:Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/11/nato-russian-troops-ukraine-now-2014111214105962679.html
I'm not sure how much credence I give to that but they are also setting up their own SWIFT system, once that's achieved and they've withdrawn from the western financial system so the theory goes they'll be more at liberty to take an even more aggressive stance.
If the above were to come to pass, full blown invasion of the Ukraine or any of the Baltics, heaven forbid, the Tories are nailed on for a majority Govt in May.0 -
viz.TheScreamingEagles said:
The full quote is fine, but it allows the Tories to spin it as Vote Nigel, Get Ed.Tissue_Price said:http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour
Is this an unforced error, as Guido suggests? Or is Farage more concerned at shoring up his new supporters?
CCHQ Press Office @CCHQPress
Straight from the horse's mouth - @Nigel_Farage confirms it: Vote Ukip, get Labour ...0 -
@CCHQPress: Straight from the horse's mouth - @Nigel_Farage confirms it: Vote Ukip, get Labour http://t.co/PeWb4WdXv1
@MrHarryCole: Serious panic in Farage-land if frantic hassling bordering on abuse from key aide is anything to go by.0 -
Back from long lunch. What's happened?0
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But Krishnan makes a useful counterpoint:
Tim Montgomerie @montie
Strategic error. @GuidoFawkes is absolutely right. Silly of @Nigel_Farage to say he might put Ed Miliband in No10
Krishnan Guru-Murthy @krishgm
@montie @GuidoFawkes doesn't it help the "vote UKIP, get a referendum even if the Tories lose" argument?
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
@krishgm @montie Well Ed ruled that out yesterday as not in the national interest, so it would probably have to be a deal with Yvette.0 -
There is an excellent tome out called "The Devil's Alliance" by Roger Moorehouse about the M-R pact between 39-41 , didn't end well for either side- Kippers should note.TheScreamingEagles said:Vote Nigel, get Ed
New Statesman @NewStatesman
"I'd do a deal with the devil," Farage tells the NS about a possible Labour-Ukip deal next May - in tomorrow's issue http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour …0 -
Talking of which - isn't Hague supposed to be bringing The Vow legislation and EVFEL legislation forwards later this month? Good opportunity to force Labour to vote against EVFEL and plumb new depths in England.Flightpath said:
Thats right and thats why it is totally bonkers to split the right wing anti labour vote. Even on this performance they could get in, and these numbers are reliant on them doing badly in Scotland.FrancisUrquhart said:All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
A bigger question is can the Tories get more than 35%. There isn't a lot of evidence that they can these days.
To be honest I expect Labour to do a U turn on EVEL, but not sure it will help now. I think they made a mistake over iScotland result in not going along with Cameron in saying Yes to more devolution but yes to EVEL as well. By saying No to the latter it made them look to be back tracking on the former to the Scots and made them look anti English in England. lose lose.0 -
Ed is crap and Nigel has said he and his band of traitorous pig dogs will do a deal to put Ed in Downing StreetScrapheap_as_was said:Back from long lunch. What's happened?
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Young Nigel Lawson, 10 years before he became an MP...0
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I should work for CCHQTissue_Price said:
viz.TheScreamingEagles said:
The full quote is fine, but it allows the Tories to spin it as Vote Nigel, Get Ed.Tissue_Price said:http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour
Is this an unforced error, as Guido suggests? Or is Farage more concerned at shoring up his new supporters?
CCHQ Press Office @CCHQPress
Straight from the horse's mouth - @Nigel_Farage confirms it: Vote Ukip, get Labour ...0 -
1964 - Nigel Lawson and Anthony Howard with Cliff Michelmore.0
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I can't understand why anyone would think Chuka Ummuna would make an appealing leader.0 -
They either had to get rid of Ed by now or put up with him. They do neither.RodCrosby said:
They really do have a death wish.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Fascinating rumour from @Kevin_Maguire in NS suggesting that Lord Sainsbury is prepared to fund a future Chuka Ummuna leadership bid.
Sooner rather than later...
Maybe they'll move their 2015 Conference forward to January? It's the only way to dislodge Ed...0 -
ScottP ---- ''The Labour Party gave you Gordon Brown, and are offering Ed "worse than Foot" Miliband. You also get Ed balls...''
You make a very good point. This has got to be one of the very worst 'Buy One Get One Free' offers ever. BOGOF indeed!
Maybe I should email Crosby with the idea.0 -
Wilson's in...Scrapheap_as_was said:Back from long lunch. What's happened?
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There is?Swiss_Bob said:
There's some thought that the Russians are going to really kick-off shortly.MikeK said:
Looks like a winter war is about to begin.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.Anorak said:Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/11/nato-russian-troops-ukraine-now-2014111214105962679.html
I'm not sure how much credence I give to that but they are also setting up their own SWIFT system, once that's achieved and they've withdrawn from the western financial system so the theory goes they'll be more at liberty to take an even more aggressive stance.
If the above were to come to pass, full blown invasion of the Ukraine or any of the Baltics, heaven forbid, the Tories are nailed on for a majority Govt in May.0 -
All very Molotov-Ribbentrop isn't it?TGOHF said:
There is an excellent tome out called "The Devil's Alliance" by Roger Moorehouse about the M-R pact between 39-41 , didn't end well for either side- Kippers should note.TheScreamingEagles said:Vote Nigel, get Ed
New Statesman @NewStatesman
"I'd do a deal with the devil," Farage tells the NS about a possible Labour-Ukip deal next May - in tomorrow's issue http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour …0 -
@tnewtondunn: Farage tells @NewStatesman he'll prop up a minority Ed Mili Govt. This is a gift to Cameron - expect to hear PM repeat daily until May 7.0
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Marxists on one side, demagogue leader with interesting views on Romanians on the other - virtually history repeating itselfTheScreamingEagles said:
All very Molotov-Ribbentrop isn't it?TGOHF said:
There is an excellent tome out called "The Devil's Alliance" by Roger Moorehouse about the M-R pact between 39-41 , didn't end well for either side- Kippers should note.TheScreamingEagles said:Vote Nigel, get Ed
New Statesman @NewStatesman
"I'd do a deal with the devil," Farage tells the NS about a possible Labour-Ukip deal next May - in tomorrow's issue http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour …
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All very Molotov-Ribbentrop isn't it?
It would have worked out fine if the Germans hadn't broken it. The Russians would never have attacked.0 -
McKenzie identifies swingback...0
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Great comment on Guido Fawkes re Farage 'supporting' Labour:
“If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.” – Winston Churchill.0 -
But everyone knew it would end in tears.taffys said:All very Molotov-Ribbentrop isn't it?
It would have worked out fine if the Germans hadn't broken it. The Russians would never have attacked.0 -
Amid all the excitement of the accelerating Labour / Ed meltdown, let us not forget bigger things are afoot in the world that will force politicians into actions and directions they may not like (especially if they are lefties):
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh
Japan's debt/GDP is 250% and worsening fast. The only route open to them is to destroy the Yen. Utterly. And therefore the Japanese government bond market. The BoJ has gone 'all in' on MASSIVE quantitative easing. Global government bond markets are going to be ravaged. Deficit funded welfare states wound up sooner rather than later.0 -
It will be a record high for Labour if they can go above the GE % where they lost office. Since at least WW2 Labour have always dropped lower in the GE after losing office. History is against you Francis.FrancisUrquhart said:All those saying how low will Labour go, IMO they will still scrape 30% at the very worst when the GE comes. Labour still have a large client base (in fact could well be even bigger), which is strongly anti-Tory.
Gordon Brown gone bonkers, country in meltdown, and still despite polling as low as 24-25%, when the day came he still got 29%.
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It's the Poles I'm worried about.TGOHF said:
Marxists on one side, demagogue leader with interesting views on Romanians on the other - virtually history repeating itselfTheScreamingEagles said:
All very Molotov-Ribbentrop isn't it?TGOHF said:
There is an excellent tome out called "The Devil's Alliance" by Roger Moorehouse about the M-R pact between 39-41 , didn't end well for either side- Kippers should note.TheScreamingEagles said:Vote Nigel, get Ed
New Statesman @NewStatesman
"I'd do a deal with the devil," Farage tells the NS about a possible Labour-Ukip deal next May - in tomorrow's issue http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-id-do-deal-labour …0 -
If UKIP bite disproportionately into his vote, the seat flips to Con...Neil said:
Who to? There are fewer than 100 Tories in the constituency and so few people willing to stand for them they had to re-run the selection. Going to be tough to fight a ground war with those resources.RodCrosby said:
Balls has to be worth a punt...0 -
Miliband on front page of Private Eye with that Romanian girl. Great cover. POEMWAS.0
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The 1964 coverage is a lot more brisk and energetic than some people might expect for a programme from 50 years ago.0
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UKIP have got to address the point about who they would prop up in the event of a minority government .Otherwise they cannot say that they are hopeful of being in a controlling position in a hung parliament which is the main response to the wasted vote argument.Also after the Lib Dem example parties will not be able to avoid answering the question of who they will support and in what circumstances next time. It is a tricky issue but it is not a mistake by Farage to try and answer it because it won't go away for UKIP; the SNP or the Lib Dems.0
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No, because most of this debt is internal to Japan, just as ours is to Britain. As a separate consideration, the exchange rate is not a virility symbol; exporting nations (like China and Germany) generally prefer lower rates.Patrick said:Amid all the excitement of the accelerating Labour / Ed meltdown, let us not forget bigger things are afoot in the world that will force politicians into actions and directions they may not like (especially if they are lefties):
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh
Japan's debt/GDP is 250% and worsening fast. The only route open to them is to destroy the Yen. Utterly. And therefore the Japanese government bond market. The BoJ has gone 'all in' on MASSIVE quantitative easing. Global government bond markets are going to be ravaged. Deficit funded welfare states wound up sooner rather than later.0 -
But everyone knew it would end in tears.
Apart from Stalin. At first he totally refused to believe Barbarossa was happening.0 -
Will that encourage Labour voters to vote UKIP or Tory voters not to vote UKIP?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
is there a shortage of perforated, absorbent, soft paper?TheScreamingEagles said:
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