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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leadership troubles Ipsos-MORI has worst poll for party since GE10

The Ipsos-MORI monthly poll has the worst figures for LAB of any since 2010 pic.twitter.com/JkrwKdTOhf

Read the full story here

Itajai

Cue for more muttering on Ed...

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/532514104083488769

Morris_Dancer

Not long until the Rochester vote. As well as potentially affecting that, if bad polling continues for Labour up to and after the by-election it may decrease the likelihood of any further defections.

Edited extra bit: from Conservative to UKIP, of course.

TGOHF

Terrible poll for Kippers - their own poll rating down, Farage's rating down and the chance of avoiding a referendum slipping away.

Fishing

How had Labour "got through its leadership troubles"? Ed is still there isn't he?

OblitusSumMe

Three points down? Ouch.

rottenborough

Here it comes. Maybe. The cross-over some of us PBers have been predicting. I thought polls would narrow so that it was neck-and-neck just before the actual campaign starts in April, seems maybe happening earlier.

TGOHF

Reflect on the words of Mary Riddell this morning

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11223571/Labour-agitators-bear-the-stink-of-failure-not-Ed-Miliband.html

"The paradox of Ed Miliband is that the more unpopular he gets, the more certain it becomes that Britain needs him."

notme

If that poll had came out on Friday, would it have forced Ed out?

JonnyJimmy

Most seats at GE, Shadsy goes 10/11 Lab & Con

Lab maj out to 100/30

AlastairMeeks

1. It's just one poll, so I don't pay too much attention to the headline voting figures. Labour probably still have a small lead.
2. However, MORI is the gold standard for leadership ratings and these show a pretty clear picture all round. Rogues just aren't that roguish. Ed Miliband is considered Not Up To It.
3. Will Labour recover from its current position under Ed Miliband? It seems most unlikely. When is he going to get the opportunity to persuade the public to look at him afresh? They've had four years to consider his merits and their minds seem made up, just as they are about Nick Clegg.
4. The Conservatives aren't doing any better than Labour. They have more grounds for hoping they might yet recover a bit, because the public obviously prefer David Cameron to Ed Miliband.
5. The opportunities for the smaller parties (other than the Lib Dems) are potentially immense for those that can take them. Bet accordingly.

rottenborough

notme said:

If that poll had came out on Friday, would it have forced Ed out?

Doubt it. The clincher seems to be that Alan J has categorically refused to run for leader. There's no one else the party could coronate.

OblitusSumMe

Last time the Tories had a 3% poll lead - with any pollster - was in the Guardian ICM just a day or two before the Omnishambles budget. The shares then were:

Conservative 39%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrat 15%
UKIP 4%
Others 6%

The Conservative poll lead may have swung back, but everything else is different [Con -7, Lab -7, LibDem -6, UKIP +10, Others +10, some of these differences will be systematic and methodological, but, um, still..(!)]

SimonStClare

Ed has had a very lucky escape imho – if this poll had been a week earlier, things could have been very different.

isam

TGOHF said at the end of the previous thread that he thinks selling Ukip seats at 8 could be the bet... I think you can sell at 10 now

To me this seemed a bet on gut instinct when I first saw the spreads, and so obviously even better now.... People say Ukip could breakthrough etc, but I think they already have. They could also implode

I'd say 4 seats is a lot more likely than 16 and more than 20 is not happening

I worked as a spread dealer at IG for years and the value is generally to sell an unproven horse

Scott_P

rottenborough said:

There's no one else the party could coronate.

Hattie polled better than this.

AlastairMeeks

"I have never stood for the leadership of my party – and for the avoidance of doubt, regardless of the circumstances, I never will."

But what if the shadow Cabinet begged you on their hands and knees, Alan?

TheScreamingEagles

SNP on 8%.

Which is just wow.

Scott_P

@LadPolitics: Tories and Labour now joint election favourites for first time in two and a half years.
Most Seats Betting
10/11 Cons
10/11 Lab

TheScreamingEagles

@ladpolitics

Tories and Labour now joint election favourites for first time in two and a half years.
Most Seats Betting
10/11 Cons
10/11 Lab

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

"I have never stood for the leadership of my party – and for the avoidance of doubt, regardless of the circumstances, I never will."

But what if the shadow Cabinet begged you on their hands and knees, Alan?

It wasn't a Shermanesque denial was it?

JonnyJimmy

Still with Shadsy;

Lab less than 2010 share 7/4
Lab share under 25% 7/1

Con most votes & most seats Evs

Lab seats o/u 288.5
Con seats o/u 281.5

Scott_P

@richardpeacock: the first images start to come in from the #Rosetta landing http://t.co/nN2XM54nnb

SimonStClare

antifrank said:

"I have never stood for the leadership of my party – and for the avoidance of doubt, regardless of the circumstances, I never will."

But what if the shadow Cabinet begged you on their hands and knees, Alan?

I recently saw an interview with Alan Johnson at the Hay on Wye book festival? - He looked happier and more at home than he ever did in parliament. He knows his limitations and somehow I think he will resist all pleading to stand as leader.

Casino_Royale

Morris_Dancer said:

Not long until the Rochester vote. As well as potentially affecting that, if bad polling continues for Labour up to and after the by-election it may decrease the likelihood of any further defections.

Edited extra bit: from Conservative to UKIP, of course.

I was just going to post that. This poll, and that from Rochester last night, should make Cameron safe from defections (until 8th May) now. A leadership challenge is definitely off the table.

JonnyJimmy

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP on 8%.

Which is just wow.

SNP most Scottish seats still 13/8 with ladbrokes

SouthamObserver

The only consolation that Labour will have if these figures are repeated at the GE is that Ed will be out on his arse and there will be new rules in place to choose his successor.

SimonStClare

Scott_P said:

@richardpeacock: the first images start to come in from the #Rosetta landing http://t.co/nN2XM54nnb

you bugger..! ; )

TheScreamingEagles

roadto326 ‏@roadto326

Nick Clegg has lost 2/3rds of his party's 2010 support, and is still seen as doing a better job than EdM (Mori) Something badly wrong.

TGOHF

Hmm

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/12/film-nigel-farage-insurance-based-nhs-private-companies?CMP=twt_gu

"Nigel Farage has been caught on camera telling Ukip supporters that the state-funded NHS should move towards an insurance-based system run by private companies."

FluffyThoughts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-30023012

Shame he was an actor and not a real copper....

AlastairMeeks

Anyone wanting to back the Conservatives for most seats should consider Sporting Index:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.3483855/uk-general-election

If you buy at 46 on this market, you're effectively backing the Conservatives at odds against (rather than Ladbrokes' odds on) and without having to put your stake up front. But note you can still get 6/5 or 11/10 on Betfair with substantial liquidity.

JonnyJimmy

UKIP most seats no longer suspended at ladbrokes: 33/1

Can't imagine they'll have too many takers...

anotherDave

TGOHF said:

Terrible poll for Kippers - their own poll rating down, Farage's rating down and the chance of avoiding a referendum slipping away.

?
Margin of error changes. Farage still has better numbers than Cameron/Clegg/Miliband.

JonnyJimmy

Ed out back to 4/1 (from 5/1)

Norm

rottenborough said:

notme said:

If that poll had came out on Friday, would it have forced Ed out?

Doubt it. The clincher seems to be that Alan J has categorically refused to run for leader. There's no one else the party could coronate.

Do you mean by that there would have to be a leadership election?

SimonStClare said:

Ed has had a very lucky escape imho – if this poll had been a week earlier, things could have been very different.

True but maybe there's now more risk of him falling on his sword if it looks like the only thing closing off the chances of a Lab gov't is Ed himself.

TheScreamingEagles

Time to deploy the #WeBackEd hashtag (note this is for the Tories only)

AlastairMeeks

antifrank said:

Anyone wanting to back the Conservatives for most seats should consider Sporting Index:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.3483855/uk-general-election

If you buy at 46 on this market, you're effectively backing the Conservatives at odds against (rather than Ladbrokes' odds on) and without having to put your stake up front. But note you can still get 6/5 or 11/10 on Betfair with substantial liquidity.

I see that this market has now been suspended.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh dear

A member of a stag party has claimed he was “grossly exploited” by a Bournemouth lap dancing club after he spent a third of his salary in a single evening.

The man, who cannot be named for legal reasons, spent more than £7,500 at the Spearmint Rhino strip club in August 2013 and is claiming that staff “grossly exploited a person in a vulnerable position.”

Arriving at the venue, the man – who lives in Northern Ireland – admits that he was already intoxicated but claims that he ended up alone in a booth after staff plied him with more alcohol until he was unaware of his actions.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stag-party-member-claims-he-was-grossly-exploited-by-lap-dancing-club-after-spending-third-of-his-salary-in-single-evening-9852103.html

bigjohnowls

Do Ipsos usually publish a poll of those 100% likely to vote?

FluffyThoughts

If we ever doubted that "The Law is an Ass" then our Court-System comes up with this:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/tube-groper-banned-from-the-central-line-for-the-next-five-years-9855566.html

How the feck is this to be enforced? Is applicable at London-Bridge or Shadwell? We need to address the lack of justice in our legal system and stop pandering to au-fiat lawyers...!

Sean_F

TGOHF said:

Terrible poll for Kippers - their own poll rating down, Farage's rating down and the chance of avoiding a referendum slipping away.

Farage's rating is down a mighty 1%. He still polls better than any other party leader.

JackW

One wonders whether there is much merit to a view noted on PB occasionally that :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

Scott_P

@JohnRentoul: Dissatisfaction with EdM among Lab supporters 58%, highest level ever recorded by Ipsos MORI for any leader among own supporters in 20 years

NickPalmer

Worth noting that this is effectively almost the same as YouGov, who don't adjust for certainty to vote and have Labour 1 point ahead, though on higher figures for both main parties. I doubt if the certainty to vote rating is particularly significant for marginals, and essentially the parties are tied.

Grandiose

bigjohnowls said:

Do Ipsos usually publish a poll of those 100% likely to vote?

Standard for ipsos, yes, although more-or-less unique.

JonnyJimmy

Scott_P said:

@JohnRentoul: Dissatisfaction with EdM among Lab supporters 58%, highest level ever recorded by Ipsos MORI for any leader among own supporters in 20 years

Down to 29% AND highest ever dissatisfaction level? Wow..

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP on 8%.

Which is just wow.

The natives are restless

RodCrosby

Labour seem to be dissolving into a panic-stricken mob.

'One Labour MP said: “If the numbers carry on like this he will have to go by Christmas, irrespective of whether there is someone waiting in the wings to take over. We cannot go into a General Election knowing we are going to lose.”'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/blow-for-ed-miliband-as-poll-reveals-just-13-per-cent-think-he-could-be-pm-9855880.html

RodCrosby

Brezhnev gains the Kremlin...

Anorak

JackW said:

One wonders whether there is much merit to a view noted on PB occasionally that :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

A well-earned pat on the back for you in that case. No doubt apologies will be forthcoming from those who snickered at that view.

TheWatcher

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh dear

A member of a stag party has claimed he was “grossly exploited” by a Bournemouth lap dancing club after he spent a third of his salary in a single evening.

The man, who cannot be named for legal reasons, spent more than £7,500 at the Spearmint Rhino strip club in August 2013 and is claiming that staff “grossly exploited a person in a vulnerable position.”

Arriving at the venue, the man – who lives in Northern Ireland – admits that he was already intoxicated but claims that he ended up alone in a booth after staff plied him with more alcohol until he was unaware of his actions.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stag-party-member-claims-he-was-grossly-exploited-by-lap-dancing-club-after-spending-third-of-his-salary-in-single-evening-9852103.html

Had he over imbibed in Dirty Dicks earlier in the evening?

OblitusSumMe

isam said:

TGOHF said at the end of the previous thread that he thinks selling Ukip seats at 8 could be the bet... I think you can sell at 10 now

To me this seemed a bet on gut instinct when I first saw the spreads, and so obviously even better now.... People say Ukip could breakthrough etc, but I think they already have. They could also implode

I'd say 4 seats is a lot more likely than 16 and more than 20 is not happening

I worked as a spread dealer at IG for years and the value is generally to sell an unproven horse

That's all very well argued, and I've never made a bet in my life, but from a purely mathematical point of view there are two things that make a buy on UKIP interesting, both mentioned by PeterThePunter.

One is the zero lower bound. This means that, unlike the vast majority of spread bets, your potential losses on a buy on the spread are capped at a relatively reasonable level. The other is that, while unlikely, there's the possibility of a result in the long tail of many UKIP seats, as the probability distribution for UKIP seats is probably roughly Poisson distributed.

anotherDave

TGOHF said:

Hmm

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/12/film-nigel-farage-insurance-based-nhs-private-companies?CMP=twt_gu

"Nigel Farage has been caught on camera telling Ukip supporters that the state-funded NHS should move towards an insurance-based system run by private companies."

I can see that Polly Toynbee might find that video shocking, I doubt many others would.

chestnut

SouthamObserver said:

The only consolation that Labour will have if these figures are repeated at the GE is that Ed will be out on his arse and there will be new rules in place to choose his successor.

If Labour have had their wits about them, this Parliament won't have been about winning in 2015, it will have been about embedding fresh faces from the 2010 intake to pick up the baton post 2015 with the aim of winning in 2020.

All the old guard need removing. They're tainted by their record, just as almost all the post Major Tories were.

BannedInParis

Richard Nabavi - remind me of your prediction about polling from before the summer. November time, wasn't it?

AlastairMeeks

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

TGOHF said at the end of the previous thread that he thinks selling Ukip seats at 8 could be the bet... I think you can sell at 10 now

To me this seemed a bet on gut instinct when I first saw the spreads, and so obviously even better now.... People say Ukip could breakthrough etc, but I think they already have. They could also implode

I'd say 4 seats is a lot more likely than 16 and more than 20 is not happening

I worked as a spread dealer at IG for years and the value is generally to sell an unproven horse

That's all very well argued, and I've never made a bet in my life, but from a purely mathematical point of view there are two things that make a buy on UKIP interesting, both mentioned by PeterThePunter.

One is the zero lower bound. This means that, unlike the vast majority of spread bets, your potential losses on a buy on the spread are capped at a relatively reasonable level. The other is that, while unlikely, there's the possibility of a result in the long tail of many UKIP seats, as the probability distribution for UKIP seats is probably roughly Poisson distributed.

On most such markets you're better selling than buying, because most gamblers are unduly influenced by the risk/reward on the upper side. On this I make isam correct in theory (for the reason he gives also).

Not a bet to place in the short term though. Prices are likely to improve before they get worse.

FluffyThoughts

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP on 8%.

Which is just wow.

The natives are restless

Yep:

But Scotland is 8% of the UK populus. Given a - possible - 55% support in the County-Palatinate of Northern-Britischershire then I would expect the remainder are in Anglo-Saxonshire or the doss-hills of Wales.

ThomasNashe

Anorak said:

JackW said:

One wonders whether there is much merit to a view noted on PB occasionally that :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

A well-earned pat on the back for you in that case. No doubt apologies will be forthcoming from those who snickered at that view.

I also though Innocent Abroad's oft-stated prediction of Labour on 25% was absolutely barking. Now, I'm not so sure ...

RodCrosby

antifrank said:

Anyone wanting to back the Conservatives for most seats should consider Sporting Index:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.3483855/uk-general-election

If you buy at 46 on this market, you're effectively backing the Conservatives at odds against (rather than Ladbrokes' odds on) and without having to put your stake up front. But note you can still get 6/5 or 11/10 on Betfair with substantial liquidity.

How does that work? Tory most seats is defined as 100 points. You surely don't win 54 times your stake?

Alistair

RodCrosby said:

antifrank said:

Anyone wanting to back the Conservatives for most seats should consider Sporting Index:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.3483855/uk-general-election

If you buy at 46 on this market, you're effectively backing the Conservatives at odds against (rather than Ladbrokes' odds on) and without having to put your stake up front. But note you can still get 6/5 or 11/10 on Betfair with substantial liquidity.

How does that work? Tory most seats is defined as 100 points. You surely don't win 54 times your stake?

Welcome to spread betting.

state_go_away

RodCrosby said:

antifrank said:

Anyone wanting to back the Conservatives for most seats should consider Sporting Index:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.3483855/uk-general-election

If you buy at 46 on this market, you're effectively backing the Conservatives at odds against (rather than Ladbrokes' odds on) and without having to put your stake up front. But note you can still get 6/5 or 11/10 on Betfair with substantial liquidity.

How does that work? Tory most seats is defined as 100 points. You surely don't win 54 times your stake?

you do but if they don't do it you lose 46 times your stake

SimonStClare

Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report has written a post.

“As usual it’s the unusual poll that gets the attention, when it should be the trend. The fieldwork for the poll was conducted between Saturday and Monday when the media was full of stories about Labour having a leadership crisis, so naturally enough people have concluded that Labour’s leadership row has damaged them in the polls.

Except the MORI poll wasn’t the only poll conducted at the weekend. ICM also had a poll in the field at the same time, which showed Labour one point ahead (though down three on the previous month). Lord Ashcroft also had a poll conducted at the weekend, which showed a one point Conservative lead, but no change from the previous week ...

The fact that this is the largest Conservative lead and the lowest Labour score for years is meaningful in its own way. It’s reflection of a general trend that has shown Labour drop from an average lead of around six points at the start of year, to an average lead of around about one point now.”

state_go_away

antifrank said:

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

TGOHF said at the end of the previous thread that he thinks selling Ukip seats at 8 could be the bet... I think you can sell at 10 now

To me this seemed a bet on gut instinct when I first saw the spreads, and so obviously even better now.... People say Ukip could breakthrough etc, but I think they already have. They could also implode

I'd say 4 seats is a lot more likely than 16 and more than 20 is not happening

I worked as a spread dealer at IG for years and the value is generally to sell an unproven horse

That's all very well argued, and I've never made a bet in my life, but from a purely mathematical point of view there are two things that make a buy on UKIP interesting, both mentioned by PeterThePunter.

One is the zero lower bound. This means that, unlike the vast majority of spread bets, your potential losses on a buy on the spread are capped at a relatively reasonable level. The other is that, while unlikely, there's the possibility of a result in the long tail of many UKIP seats, as the probability distribution for UKIP seats is probably roughly Poisson distributed.

On most such markets you're better selling than buying, because most gamblers are unduly influenced by the risk/reward on the upper side. On this I make isam correct in theory (for the reason he gives also).

Not a bet to place in the short term though. Prices are likely to improve before they get worse.

Not so much the case these days .At one point years ago you could practically make a living selling multi corners and bookings in football matches (and selling batsmen's runs in cricket matches)

malcolmg

FluffyThoughts said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP on 8%.

Which is just wow.

The natives are restless

Yep:

But Scotland is 8% of the UK populus. Given a - possible - 55% support in the County-Palatinate of Northern-Britischershire then I would expect the remainder are in Anglo-Saxonshire or the doss-hills of Wales.

I thought it was 9.x % nowadays but you are correct in that there must be a few non SNP in there. Way its going 100% SNP is not as impossible as it sounds.

OblitusSumMe

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP on 8%.

Which is just wow.

Can we have Stuart Dickson back to give us the Scottish subsamples? Not sure I want to take on the responsibility...

SNP 59%
Labour 14%
Conservatives 12%
Scottish Greens 8%
Liberal Democrats 4%
UKIP 2%

isam

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

TGOHF said at the end of the previous thread that he thinks selling Ukip seats at 8 could be the bet... I think you can sell at 10 now

To me this seemed a bet on gut instinct when I first saw the spreads, and so obviously even better now.... People say Ukip could breakthrough etc, but I think they already have. They could also implode

I'd say 4 seats is a lot more likely than 16 and more than 20 is not happening

I worked as a spread dealer at IG for years and the value is generally to sell an unproven horse

That's all very well argued, and I've never made a bet in my life, but from a purely mathematical point of view there are two things that make a buy on UKIP interesting, both mentioned by PeterThePunter.

One is the zero lower bound. This means that, unlike the vast majority of spread bets, your potential losses on a buy on the spread are capped at a relatively reasonable level. The other is that, while unlikely, there's the possibility of a result in the long tail of many UKIP seats, as the probability distribution for UKIP seats is probably roughly Poisson distributed.

The best value bets are the ones that make you feel uncomfortable they say!

The uncertain and potentially huge downside makes selling seem scary, but that's why spread firms encourage buyers and close the accounts of sellers

MarkHopkins

2010-5: Labour's position

The other opposition party (LibDems) are part of government.

UKIP are a growing problem for the Tories.

And you have a Scottish heartland of support.

How the heck do you screw that up?

OblitusSumMe

A GB share of 7% for the Greens is okay, but I'm sure they'll be gutted to be 6th behind the SNP...

Morris_Dancer

I hope Labour keep Miliband. It'll be interesting to see what the result will be. He may well positively surprise people during the debates.

JonnyJimmy

malcolmg said:

FluffyThoughts said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP on 8%.

Which is just wow.

The natives are restless

Yep:

But Scotland is 8% of the UK populus. Given a - possible - 55% support in the County-Palatinate of Northern-Britischershire then I would expect the remainder are in Anglo-Saxonshire or the doss-hills of Wales.

I thought it was 9.x % nowadays but you are correct in that there must be a few non SNP in there. Way its going 100% SNP is not as impossible as it sounds.

Could it be their certainty to vote that exaggerates their apparent standing?

edmundintokyo

Morris_Dancer said:

I hope Labour keep Miliband. It'll be interesting to see what the result will be. He may well positively surprise people during the debates.

Totally storming the expectations game...

JackW

ThomasNashe said:

Anorak said:

JackW said:

One wonders whether there is much merit to a view noted on PB occasionally that :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

A well-earned pat on the back for you in that case. No doubt apologies will be forthcoming from those who snickered at that view.

I also though Innocent Abroad's oft-stated prediction of Labour on 25% was absolutely barking. Now, I'm not so sure ...

Although since 1945 Labour has never increased their share of the vote in the first election after leaving government it's difficult to see Labour losing 4 points down to 25%. Even Michael Foot managed better. Broadly I'd see Labour bucking the post 1945 trend by a point or so.

TheWatcher

Morris_Dancer said:

He may well positively surprise people during the debates.

?

FluffyThoughts

malcolmg said:

I thought it was 9.x % nowadays but you are correct in that there must be a few non SNP in there. Way its going 100% SNP is not as impossible as it sounds.

5.2/64.0

isam

state_go_away said:

antifrank said:

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

TGOHF said at the end of the previous thread that he thinks selling Ukip seats at 8 could be the bet... I think you can sell at 10 now

To me this seemed a bet on gut instinct when I first saw the spreads, and so obviously even better now.... People say Ukip could breakthrough etc, but I think they already have. They could also implode

I'd say 4 seats is a lot more likely than 16 and more than 20 is not happening

I worked as a spread dealer at IG for years and the value is generally to sell an unproven horse

That's all very well argued, and I've never made a bet in my life, but from a purely mathematical point of view there are two things that make a buy on UKIP interesting, both mentioned by PeterThePunter.

One is the zero lower bound. This means that, unlike the vast majority of spread bets, your potential losses on a buy on the spread are capped at a relatively reasonable level. The other is that, while unlikely, there's the possibility of a result in the long tail of many UKIP seats, as the probability distribution for UKIP seats is probably roughly Poisson distributed.

On most such markets you're better selling than buying, because most gamblers are unduly influenced by the risk/reward on the upper side. On this I make isam correct in theory (for the reason he gives also).

Not a bet to place in the short term though. Prices are likely to improve before they get worse.

Not so much the case these days .At one point years ago you could practically make a living selling multi corners and bookings in football matches (and selling batsmen's runs in cricket matches)

Has that changed then? I thought the main reason for not making a living that way is they close the account!

state_go_away

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

I hope Labour keep Miliband. It'll be interesting to see what the result will be. He may well positively surprise people during the debates.

Totally storming the expectations game...

That might be something to be proud about after the event but not before!!

bigjohnowls

Which Poll is usually reported as the headline VI poll by Ipsos Mori.?

The 100% likely to vote one or the all expressing a VI?

ThomasNashe

MarkHopkins said:

2010-5: Labour's position

The other opposition party (LibDems) are part of government.

UKIP are a growing problem for the Tories.

And you have a Scottish heartland of support.

How the heck do you screw that up?

Precisely, with a half-decent leader Labour would be storming home. I'd also add that the whole rationale for voting for the coalition's austerity focus was that they were going to eliminate the deficit by the end of the parliament, which they have failed spectacularly to do. Any opposition worth it's salt would have made something of that.

Danny565

Ed's speech tomorrow really might be "make or break". Obviously the general public aren't going to be listening regardless, but he really needs to give Labour MPs and activists some sense of purpose, a clear and coherent message, and something they can actually SELL to people. If it's just his usual bunch of banal platitudes about "fairness" or God forbid something about "devolving power" then I can really see the Labour rank-and-file just despairing completely.

state_go_away

isam said:

state_go_away said:

antifrank said:

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

TGOHF said at the end of the previous thread that he thinks selling Ukip seats at 8 could be the bet... I think you can sell at 10 now

To me this seemed a bet on gut instinct when I first saw the spreads, and so obviously even better now.... People say Ukip could breakthrough etc, but I think they already have. They could also implode

I'd say 4 seats is a lot more likely than 16 and more than 20 is not happening

I worked as a spread dealer at IG for years and the value is generally to sell an unproven horse

That's all very well argued, and I've never made a bet in my life, but from a purely mathematical point of view there are two things that make a buy on UKIP interesting, both mentioned by PeterThePunter.

One is the zero lower bound. This means that, unlike the vast majority of spread bets, your potential losses on a buy on the spread are capped at a relatively reasonable level. The other is that, while unlikely, there's the possibility of a result in the long tail of many UKIP seats, as the probability distribution for UKIP seats is probably roughly Poisson distributed.

On most such markets you're better selling than buying, because most gamblers are unduly influenced by the risk/reward on the upper side. On this I make isam correct in theory (for the reason he gives also).

Not a bet to place in the short term though. Prices are likely to improve before they get worse.

Not so much the case these days .At one point years ago you could practically make a living selling multi corners and bookings in football matches (and selling batsmen's runs in cricket matches)

Has that changed then? I thought the main reason for not making a living that way is they close the account!

I find it less of a no brainer these days especially with corners !

[Deleted User]

Speccie makes a good point - Dave in low 30s whilst UKIP still in the teens. Given what we saw yesreday about Rochester byelection vs GE polling that must be encouraging for Dave for next May. Should he be expecting to get high 30s? (and where does that leave Microband - low 20s?)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Watcher, all Miliband need do is turn up and not void his bowels and he's already ahead of expectations. He'll likely land a few hits, and doing so will diminish (at least somewhat) his less than stellar reputation.

The downside is that people may remember Clegg, and they'll go in with anti-Miliband views. That does mean expectations for him will be very low (so he can confound them easily), but if such views are too entrenched people may view all he says through anti-Miliband goggles, as it were.

The debates are a good opportunity for Miliband.

RodCrosby

Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-

(Central forecast)

Con vote lead 11.4%
Con seat lead 122 seats

(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

Chance of Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%

Chance of a Hung Parliament: 4.0%
Chance of a Tory majority: 96.0%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

Would imply something like

Con 350
Lab 228
Oths 72

Con majority of 50...

Danny565

OblitusSumMe said:

A GB share of 7% for the Greens is okay, but I'm sure they'll be gutted to be 6th behind the SNP...

Not long before the Lib Dems get that coveted 6th place in a poll.

JonnyJimmy

PM at 2015 Queen's Speech with Ladbrokes

Dave Evs
Ed 6/5

Both 11/10 this morning

Richard_Nabavi

BannedInParis said:

Richard Nabavi - remind me of your prediction about polling from before the summer. November time, wasn't it?

Yes, I posted on various occasions that I didn't think anything much was happening in the summer, that we should wait until after the conference season, and then look for a Lab->Con shift from around November.

However the current performance of UKIP in the opinion polls, which is better than I expected, remains a complicating factor. I think there will be a net drift back from UKIP to the Conservatives as the elections comes into focus (although antifrank is right that there might be some turbulence around the Rochester & Strood result).

In sum, relative to the current polling, I expect the final GE vote shares to be better for the Conservatives, worse for Labour, about the same or a smidgen better for the LibDems, and a little lower for UKIP.

In seat terms, it's hard to be specific; there remains a reasonably wide range of possible outcomes. The outcome I think is really very unlikely is Lab Maj. Con Maj looks good value at current odds.

OblitusSumMe

The net swing from Labour to the Conservatives in this poll is 1% of the weighted base, ie the poll would be 31-30 without the direct Labour -> Conservative swing, while it is 32-29.

There are your voters for Gordon Brown (the incumbent) who prefer Cameron (the incumbent) over Miliband.

Danny565

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Watcher, all Miliband need do is turn up and not void his bowels and he's already ahead of expectations. He'll likely land a few hits, and doing so will diminish (at least somewhat) his less than stellar reputation.

The downside is that people may remember Clegg, and they'll go in with anti-Miliband views. That does mean expectations for him will be very low (so he can confound them easily), but if such views are too entrenched people may view all he says through anti-Miliband goggles, as it were.

The debates are a good opportunity for Miliband.

They're a good opportunity for him, but he would need to actually have something to SAY to take advantage of that opportunity. If he's still scared to actually have any...you know...policies...and he resorts to his usual banal platitudes and nonsense gobbledygook ("this matter does not arise"), then there'll be nothing to distract the viewer from how annoying his voice is and how awkward he seems.

Artist

Richard_Nabavi said:

BannedInParis said:

Richard Nabavi - remind me of your prediction about polling from before the summer. November time, wasn't it?

Yes, I posted on various occasions that I didn't think anything much was happening in the summer, that we should wait until after the conference season, and then look for a Lab->Con shift from around November.

However the current performance of UKIP in the opinion polls, which is better than I expected, remains a complicating factor. I think there will be a net drift back from UKIP to the Conservatives as the elections comes into focus (although antifrank is right that there might be some turbulence around the Rochester & Strood result).

In sum, relative to the current polling, I expect the final GE vote shares to be better for the Conservatives, worse for Labour, about the same or a smidgen better for the LibDems, and a little lower for UKIP.

In seat terms, it's hard to be specific; there remains a reasonably wide range of possible outcomes. The outcome I think is really very unlikely is Lab Maj. Con Maj looks good value at current odds.

The Conservatives to turn a 1% deficit into a 7/8% lead in under six months?

MarqueeMark

MarkHopkins said:

2010-5: Labour's position

The other opposition party (LibDems) are part of government.

UKIP are a growing problem for the Tories.

And you have a Scottish heartland of support.

How the heck do you screw that up?

Two words: Ed Miliband

Great isn't it? Expect another "awkward weekend" for Ed. What we really need now is a UKIP defector from Labour. That would really stir the pot.

Preferably, a brace of them.

Anorak

Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

Looking at the Scottish subsamples (Hello Stuart), it is not impossible that the Tories will get more votes in Scotland than Labour. And maybe, then, more Scottish MPs.

That will be the quintessence of hilariousness.

Stop drinking the sub-sample kool aid.

HurstLlama

Patrick said:

Speccie makes a good point - Dave in low 30s whilst UKIP still in the teens. Given what we saw yesreday about Rochester byelection vs GE polling that must be encouraging for Dave for next May. Should he be expecting to get high 30s? (and where does that leave Microband - low 20s?)

The Conservatives getting to the high thirties next May? What could Cameron and his clique do or say between now and then that would attract so many voters? He might pick up a few percent who are desperate to avoid another Labour government but to score more than about 35% he will need to give a positive reason to vote for his party. What such reason or reasons can he give that enough people who are not currently think of voting for him are likely to believe?

AlastairMeeks

RodCrosby said:

antifrank said:

Anyone wanting to back the Conservatives for most seats should consider Sporting Index:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.3483855/uk-general-election

If you buy at 46 on this market, you're effectively backing the Conservatives at odds against (rather than Ladbrokes' odds on) and without having to put your stake up front. But note you can still get 6/5 or 11/10 on Betfair with substantial liquidity.

How does that work? Tory most seats is defined as 100 points. You surely don't win 54 times your stake?

The spread before the market was suspended was 38-46. If Labour get most seats, that scores zero. If Conservatives get most seats, that scores 100. If anyone else does, that scores 50. By buying at 46 you would effectively be betting 54 plays 46 that the Conservatives would get most seats, but not having to put a stake up front.

Conveniently, you also win a bit of money at that price if the longshot of the SNP getting most seats comes home. That shouldn't really enter your thinking though.

Scott_P

SeanT said:

Looking at the Scottish subsamples (Hello Stuart), it is not impossible that the Tories will get more votes in Scotland than Labour. And maybe, then, more Scottish MPs.

That will be the quintessence of hilariousness.

Are you seeing evidence of a Scottish Tory Surge..?

peter_from_putney

RodCrosby said:

Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-

(Central forecast)

Con vote lead 11.4%
Con seat lead 122 seats

(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

Chance of Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%

Chance of a Hung Parliament: 4.0%
Chance of a Tory majority: 96.0%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

Would imply something like

Con 350
Lab 228
Oths 72

Con majority of 50...

Wow! and more Wow and from the Gold Standard pollster no less! Truly massive betting opportunities if this model is remotely accurate!
Time to get on the case OGH with a best buy strategy?

TGOHF

Morris_Dancer said:

I hope Labour keep Miliband. It'll be interesting to see what the result will be. He may well positively surprise people during the debates.

By resigning ?

isam

Is it fair to say that when a poll comes out we can take it as a given that the betting markets will follow the poll?

Posting that Miliband has drifted in the betting after this poll is just repeating that this is a bad poll for labour isn't it? This info is only really useful before everyone knows, or if they haven't moved the prices

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

Patrick said:

Speccie makes a good point - Dave in low 30s whilst UKIP still in the teens. Given what we saw yesreday about Rochester byelection vs GE polling that must be encouraging for Dave for next May. Should he be expecting to get high 30s? (and where does that leave Microband - low 20s?)

The Conservatives getting to the high thirties next May? What could Cameron and his clique do or say between now and then that would attract so many voters? He might pick up a few percent who are desperate to avoid another Labour government but to score more than about 35% he will need to give a positive reason to vote for his party. What such reason or reasons can he give that enough people who are not currently think of voting for him are likely to believe?

Expect Nigel to get monstered.

Expect UKIP candidates to get monstered.

We see a preview of it today.

You think it is a coincidence that a clip of Farage from two years ago on the NHS should appear a week before the Rochester by-election where the NHS is a key issue to a lot of voters.