Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leade

1246

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014
    So the only person in the country that backs Ed as PM is Nigel Farage.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The question is how may 29% poll results are survivable as far as Ed is concerned? So far we've had 3 in the last 10 days.
  • So the only person in the country that backs Ed is Nigel Farage.

    LOL!
  • Yay, Lord Boothby
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    dr_spyn said:

    Miliband on front page of Private Eye with that Romanian girl. Great cover. POEMWAS.

    Great cover, had to buy mine today. My newsagent had used up my Guardian tokens that i had given him from when I was away. OK I'll buy it -what is POEd MilibandWAS?

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2014
    Swiss_Bob said:

    MikeK said:

    Anorak said:

    Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138

    Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.
    Looks like a winter war is about to begin.
    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/11/nato-russian-troops-ukraine-now-2014111214105962679.html
    There's some thought that the Russians are going to really kick-off shortly.

    I'm not sure how much credence I give to that but they are also setting up their own SWIFT system, once that's achieved and they've withdrawn from the western financial system so the theory goes they'll be more at liberty to take an even more aggressive stance.

    If the above were to come to pass, full blown invasion of the Ukraine or any of the Baltics, heaven forbid, the Tories are nailed on for a majority Govt in May.
    They might simply repeal the Septennial Act and the Fixed Term Parliament Act and thereby delay the election, as per WWI and WWII, while forming a National Government with Labour, etc, or it could be that we'll all be too busy looking for iodine tablets to worry about the legal niceties.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    I just don't see how Labour can win with a leader as unpopular as Miliband, and I don't see how they can change perceptions now.

    Because we don't elect a PM, we elect 650 MPs.

    Nobody wants Miliband as PM, but that doesn't mean we're safe. With UKIP screwing over the Tories, the accidental Labour leader will become the accidental PM.
    Leading to a UKIP majority in 2020 (or so their strategy goes).
    Kippers have peaked too early - their tanks on Labours lawn have taken out their ally Ed Miliband - their great hope to be relevant in the next parliament - looks like their Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is under threat..

    This is reminiscent of

    'Ukip just don't get 15% in yougov anymore' from the summer isn't it?
    It's getting very late in the day now for the UKIP vote to decline.

    Do you believe that none of those currently telling pollsters they'd vote UKIP can be persuaded to vote Tory to avoid PM Milicraperoo?

    I wouldn't be very surprised if around 25% could be. Especially once weird Ed is fully visible and reminding them of the likely consequence of such a frivolous vote.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    George Brown "unpredictable in many ways..."

    In the Joycean way.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    So the only person in the country that backs Ed as PM is Nigel Farage.

    Are you thinking what Nige is thinking ?
  • Patrick said:

    Amid all the excitement of the accelerating Labour / Ed meltdown, let us not forget bigger things are afoot in the world that will force politicians into actions and directions they may not like (especially if they are lefties):

    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh

    Japan's debt/GDP is 250% and worsening fast. The only route open to them is to destroy the Yen. Utterly. And therefore the Japanese government bond market. The BoJ has gone 'all in' on MASSIVE quantitative easing. Global government bond markets are going to be ravaged. Deficit funded welfare states wound up sooner rather than later.

    No, because most of this debt is internal to Japan, just as ours is to Britain. As a separate consideration, the exchange rate is not a virility symbol; exporting nations (like China and Germany) generally prefer lower rates.
    Read the linked article. What will happen if Japan goes under? And, yes exports become more competitive - unless China, Korea, Taiwan etc respond in kind! But what about imports? Japan has no energy resources of its own. Gas costs $4 in the USA Henry Hub and $15 in Tokyo Bay! Really consider the implications. Japan can't afford its energy. 2008 is going to be a picnic compared to the global instability that's coming.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Anorak said:

    Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138

    Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.
    Amused people still fall for this, although it's a 'were sighted' claim. No satellite photos of course, even though it is impossible for a column of tanks to be not picked up on the few main roads crossing the border. OSCE not supporting these claims either, only that they have seen the rebels shifting their own forces internally.

    What ceasefire anyway, the government forces have failed to withdraw under the Minsk proposals and have continued to shell civilian areas. It is possible Kiev is about to start a new offensive and it will do so because it knows it has little chance of surviving the winter in its current condition and that "International" aid will only flow as a reward for provoking a Russian intervention. In that sense the ridiculous claims of Russian Invasion are a prelude argument. If Russia does intervene against a mass provocation/offensive, Kiev will simply claim that they were right and that the Russian army was there all the time. Personally I wouldn't expect a new offensive to have any more success than the last one and ultimately the rebels would likely make sizable new gains and liberate further areas in the South and East.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    Neil said:

    RodCrosby said:



    Balls has to be worth a punt...

    Who to? There are fewer than 100 Tories in the constituency and so few people willing to stand for them they had to re-run the selection. Going to be tough to fight a ground war with those resources.
    If UKIP bite disproportionately into his vote, the seat flips to Con...
    The Ashcroft Poll in Morley & Outwood had UKIP taking more votes from the Tories - exactly in line with the national picture, and thus seeing Balls home and dry with a vastly increased majority.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    O/T:

    "But the never-before-seen letters prove Boothby lied and show how close the pair were.
    They also highlight how Boothby was later proud to defend the criminal Kray twins in the House of Lords.
    Boothby and Kray had shared rent boys and their sexual antics were too base to be revealed in detail."


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205589/The-postcard-exposes-pervert-Tory-peers-lies-Ronnie-Kray-friend.html
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Icarus said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Miliband on front page of Private Eye with that Romanian girl. Great cover. POEMWAS.

    Great cover, had to buy mine today. My newsagent had used up my Guardian tokens that i had given him from when I was away. OK I'll buy it -what is POEd MilibandWAS?

    Poor Old Ed Miliband What A Shame.

    Derivative of POGWAS -Poor Old Gordon What A Shame, though the last word might have been shit.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Amid all the excitement of the accelerating Labour / Ed meltdown, let us not forget bigger things are afoot in the world that will force politicians into actions and directions they may not like (especially if they are lefties):

    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh

    Japan's debt/GDP is 250% and worsening fast. The only route open to them is to destroy the Yen. Utterly. And therefore the Japanese government bond market. The BoJ has gone 'all in' on MASSIVE quantitative easing. Global government bond markets are going to be ravaged. Deficit funded welfare states wound up sooner rather than later.

    No, because most of this debt is internal to Japan, just as ours is to Britain. As a separate consideration, the exchange rate is not a virility symbol; exporting nations (like China and Germany) generally prefer lower rates.
    Read the linked article. What will happen if Japan goes under? And, yes exports become more competitive - unless China, Korea, Taiwan etc respond in kind! But what about imports? Japan has no energy resources of its own. Gas costs $4 in the USA Henry Hub and $15 in Tokyo Bay! Really consider the implications. Japan can't afford its energy. 2008 is going to be a picnic compared to the global instability that's coming.
    The announcement that the $1.2 trillion Japanese government pension fund would lower its allocation of domestic bonds from 60% to 35%, while doubling its domestic and international equity investments should tell you something about the direction Japan is moving in. Whether they move from stealth default by inflation to formal default is the question.
  • If leader satisfaction levels mean anything, then Farage will be Prime Minister.

    I don't think so.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    After seeing the R&C poll this could be a disaster move from Farrage, he should have said the terms of any deal would be the same for Dave and Ed, an EU referendum by the end of 2015.
  • taffys said:

    But everyone knew it would end in tears.

    Apart from Stalin. At first he totally refused to believe Barbarossa was happening.

    You can see why. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was vital for the Germans because it meant they didn't have to worry about fighting a war on two fronts. While France had been defeated in 1940, and Britain didn't have a Continental toe-hold in 1941, it still seems more than a little crazy that the Germans would choose to open up a second front before they had brought Britain to defeat.

    Like many people, he failed to consider the possibility that the people he were trying to understand didn't think like him, and the Germans seemed to be so confident of victory that they felt it would have been crazy not to attack Russia.
  • FalseFlag said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Amid all the excitement of the accelerating Labour / Ed meltdown, let us not forget bigger things are afoot in the world that will force politicians into actions and directions they may not like (especially if they are lefties):

    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh

    Japan's debt/GDP is 250% and worsening fast. The only route open to them is to destroy the Yen. Utterly. And therefore the Japanese government bond market. The BoJ has gone 'all in' on MASSIVE quantitative easing. Global government bond markets are going to be ravaged. Deficit funded welfare states wound up sooner rather than later.

    No, because most of this debt is internal to Japan, just as ours is to Britain. As a separate consideration, the exchange rate is not a virility symbol; exporting nations (like China and Germany) generally prefer lower rates.
    Read the linked article. What will happen if Japan goes under? And, yes exports become more competitive - unless China, Korea, Taiwan etc respond in kind! But what about imports? Japan has no energy resources of its own. Gas costs $4 in the USA Henry Hub and $15 in Tokyo Bay! Really consider the implications. Japan can't afford its energy. 2008 is going to be a picnic compared to the global instability that's coming.
    Whether they move from stealth default by inflation to formal default is the question.
    It's not a question really. They are going to destroy the Yen. Those who are not hard of understanding can ponder the global implications. Lefties can dribble from the orifice of their choice.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    I'm staggered (no pun intended) is Screaming Eagles right? Has Farage offered Miliband a deal?

    I have been increasingly of the view that Farage's mind was off the rails but by what logic does he seek to destroy the tory party which is committed to a referendum but is willing to offer a deal to Miliband?
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    edited November 2014
    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138

    Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.
    Amused people still fall for this, although it's a 'were sighted' claim. No satellite photos of course, even though it is impossible for a column of tanks to be not picked up on the few main roads crossing the border. OSCE not supporting these claims either, only that they have seen the rebels shifting their own forces internally.

    What ceasefire anyway, the government forces have failed to withdraw under the Minsk proposals and have continued to shell civilian areas. It is possible Kiev is about to start a new offensive and it will do so because it knows it has little chance of surviving the winter in its current condition and that "International" aid will only flow as a reward for provoking a Russian intervention. In that sense the ridiculous claims of Russian Invasion are a prelude argument. If Russia does intervene against a mass provocation/offensive, Kiev will simply claim that they were right and that the Russian army was there all the time. Personally I wouldn't expect a new offensive to have any more success than the last one and ultimately the rebels would likely make sizable new gains and liberate further areas in the South and East.
    NATO has backed the claim:

    Nato officials have seen Russian military equipment and Russian combat troops entering Ukraine this week, its top commander says.

    "Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops" were sighted, US Gen Philip Breedlove said.


    Edit. I see that's what you were replying to. Fair enough if you don't believe it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    dr_spyn said:

    Icarus said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Miliband on front page of Private Eye with that Romanian girl. Great cover. POEMWAS.

    Great cover, had to buy mine today. My newsagent had used up my Guardian tokens that i had given him from when I was away. OK I'll buy it -what is POEd MilibandWAS?

    Poor Old Ed Miliband What A Shame.

    Derivative of POGWAS -Poor Old Gordon What A Shame, though the last word might have been shit.
    I thought it originated as a Labour text message of PODWAS - poor old Dave, what a shame - but then got turned round to POGWAS after the election that never was?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    I just don't see how Labour can win with a leader as unpopular as Miliband, and I don't see how they can change perceptions now.

    Because we don't elect a PM, we elect 650 MPs.

    Nobody wants Miliband as PM, but that doesn't mean we're safe. With UKIP screwing over the Tories, the accidental Labour leader will become the accidental PM.
    Leading to a UKIP majority in 2020 (or so their strategy goes).
    Kippers have peaked too early - their tanks on Labours lawn have taken out their ally Ed Miliband - their great hope to be relevant in the next parliament - looks like their Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is under threat..

    This is reminiscent of

    'Ukip just don't get 15% in yougov anymore' from the summer isn't it?
    It's getting very late in the day now for the UKIP vote to decline.


    Because we don't elect a PM, we elect 650 MPs.

    Nobody wants Miliband as PM, but that doesn't mean we're safe. With UKIP screwing over the Tories, the accidental Labour leader will become the accidental PM.
    Leading to a UKIP majority in 2020 (or so their strategy goes).

    Kippers have peaked too early - their tanks on Labours lawn have taken out their ally Ed Miliband - their great hope to be relevant in the next parliament - looks like their Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is under threat..



    This is reminiscent of

    'Ukip just don't get 15% in yougov anymore' from the summer isn't it?

    It's getting very late in the day now for the UKIP vote to decline.



    Do you believe that none of those currently telling pollsters they'd vote UKIP can be persuaded to vote Tory to avoid PM Milicraperoo?

    I wouldn't be very surprised if around 25% could be. Especially once weird Ed is fully visible and reminding them of the likely consequence of such a frivolous vote.

    I think that some will. That's why I'd expect UKIP to finish up on 12-13% of the vote.



  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Just seen on BBC ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30027045. Three police forces to be investigated for their failure to act on child abuse.

    S Yorks isn’t among them although to be fair, the IPCC says that the probe will examine how the three forces handled information passed to them by the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Centre (CEOP).
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Swiss_Bob said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138

    Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.
    Amused people still fall for this, although it's a 'were sighted' claim. No satellite photos of course, even though it is impossible for a column of tanks to be not picked up on the few main roads crossing the border. OSCE not supporting these claims either, only that they have seen the rebels shifting their own forces internally.

    What ceasefire anyway, the government forces have failed to withdraw under the Minsk proposals and have continued to shell civilian areas. It is possible Kiev is about to start a new offensive and it will do so because it knows it has little chance of surviving the winter in its current condition and that "International" aid will only flow as a reward for provoking a Russian intervention. In that sense the ridiculous claims of Russian Invasion are a prelude argument. If Russia does intervene against a mass provocation/offensive, Kiev will simply claim that they were right and that the Russian army was there all the time. Personally I wouldn't expect a new offensive to have any more success than the last one and ultimately the rebels would likely make sizable new gains and liberate further areas in the South and East.
    NATO has backed the claim:

    Nato officials have seen Russian military equipment and Russian combat troops entering Ukraine this week, its top commander says.

    "Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops" were sighted, US Gen Philip Breedlove said.
    Of course, and their claims have as much credibility as their previous claims of Russian invasions, and indeed going back to WMDs in Iraq. These claims are not backed up by the OSCE observers nor is any evidence presented. Propaganda.
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Amid all the excitement of the accelerating Labour / Ed meltdown, let us not forget bigger things are afoot in the world that will force politicians into actions and directions they may not like (especially if they are lefties):

    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh

    Japan's debt/GDP is 250% and worsening fast. The only route open to them is to destroy the Yen. Utterly. And therefore the Japanese government bond market. The BoJ has gone 'all in' on MASSIVE quantitative easing. Global government bond markets are going to be ravaged. Deficit funded welfare states wound up sooner rather than later.

    No, because most of this debt is internal to Japan, just as ours is to Britain. As a separate consideration, the exchange rate is not a virility symbol; exporting nations (like China and Germany) generally prefer lower rates.
    Read the linked article. What will happen if Japan goes under? And, yes exports become more competitive - unless China, Korea, Taiwan etc respond in kind! But what about imports? Japan has no energy resources of its own. Gas costs $4 in the USA Henry Hub and $15 in Tokyo Bay! Really consider the implications. Japan can't afford its energy. 2008 is going to be a picnic compared to the global instability that's coming.
    The Japanese balance of trade only went negative in the last few years because of the after-effects of the tsunami. If they get all of their nuclear power plants up and running again that will presumably do a lot to reduce energy imports, and give them a trade surplus again.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    What's Tim's Twitter address?

    Not really for me to say I guess...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    "But the never-before-seen letters prove Boothby lied and show how close the pair were.
    They also highlight how Boothby was later proud to defend the criminal Kray twins in the House of Lords.
    Boothby and Kray had shared rent boys and their sexual antics were too base to be revealed in detail."


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205589/The-postcard-exposes-pervert-Tory-peers-lies-Ronnie-Kray-friend.html

    Maybe Theresa will get Fred Dineage to chair the enquiry?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    A comment on the economy. Looking through the ONS detail today. We had a decent level of productivity growth in the previous quarter, hopefully a sign of things to come and not just a one off. I think now that oil and gas output declines have stabilised slightly we should see a return to productivity growth, though slower than what we need.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    I get the impression that first indications imply that mini Rosetta has landed successfully.
  • If leader satisfaction levels mean anything, then Farage will be Prime Minister.

    I don't think so.

    Anything != Everything
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    MaxPB said:

    After seeing the R&C poll this could be a disaster move from Farrage, he should have said the terms of any deal would be the same for Dave and Ed, an EU referendum by the end of 2015.

    That is what he said isn't it?

    http://youtu.be/hIPphXRHGxA
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Probe makes historic comet landing
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30026398

    A safe landing, apparently. Now waiting for photos from lander.
  • I'm staggered (no pun intended) is Screaming Eagles right? Has Farage offered Miliband a deal?

    I have been increasingly of the view that Farage's mind was off the rails but by what logic does he seek to destroy the tory party which is committed to a referendum but is willing to offer a deal to Miliband?

    The deal with Miliband would be to have an earlier referendum on Farage terms.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    From the ridiculous to the sublime: the Philae lander is now on the comet. I'm deeply impressed.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited November 2014
    But Farage saying I love Ed also means that he loves the other Ed and his wife and and Harman and her husband and Burnham and all of the Labour Party's policies - because that is what he would be deliverinjg to the nation.

    Farages exposes himself as purely anti tory - he is anti tory because he wants a free run for his extremist right wing politics. He has been peddling his ideology of hate and now that he finds he can gert away with it he rather likes it. Increasingly as I listen to what he does and what he says he believes in, its clear to me his mind is quite warped.


    PS - he is also saying he loves the new Lord Stansgate. Go figure.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Scott_P said:

    Ha!

    @PickardJE: Ironic: Call for Labour unity from New Statesman, which began recent bout of grim introspection: "The Labour front bench must rally round."

    They just haven't decided who to rally round yet....

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    They just haven't decided who to rally round yet....

    Who is the Not Ed candidate?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Sean_F said:

    It's getting very late in the day now for the UKIP vote to decline.

    Do you believe that none of those currently telling pollsters they'd vote UKIP can be persuaded to vote Tory to avoid PM Milicraperoo?

    I wouldn't be very surprised if around 25% could be. Especially once weird Ed is fully visible and reminding them of the likely consequence of such a frivolous vote.

    Sean_F said:


    I think that some will. That's why I'd expect UKIP to finish up on 12-13% of the vote.

    Think I've sorted your dodgy quoting (which is pretty fiddly on an iPhone!)

    Do you think there'll be many of those leaving UKIP for Labour? Or most just not voting? Or do you think they'll boost the Tories somewhat?
  • Now that oil and gas prices are falling, will Labour's policy to freeze energy prices mean stopping them falling further?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014
    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Even more amazing given the speed of the comet.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Tories on 40% in Scotland (1964)
  • isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's Tim's Twitter address?

    Not really for me to say I guess...
    You are better following Dapper Laughs twitter feed, it isn't as offensive or target women / vulnerable individuals quite as much.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    A stunning achievement, I'm bowled over (and hopefully Philae was not!).

    European cooperation (+Canada) at its best!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    A stunning achievement, I'm bowled over (and hopefully Philae was not!).

    European cooperation (+Canada) at its best!
    Some very happy speakers. Teamwork and cooperation being highlighted.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Allies will use the poll to warn critics that their display of disunity has damaged their chances. But it will increase the sense of growing despair among many MPs who fear that Mr Miliband may be taking them to defeat.

    There are no details yet about tomorrow’s speech although Mr Miliband is expected to use it to explain why he became Labour leader and to set out a vision for the British economy.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4265572.ece

    More Ed. That's the answer. All Ed, all the time...

    Lucy Powell is a genius.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    edited November 2014
    Did anyone here see the mini movie ESA put out for the mission:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H08tGjXNHO4

    I'd say ESA has more confidence than NASA these days (shame the same can't be said about the money!)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Scott_P said:

    They just haven't decided who to rally round yet....

    Who is the Not Ed candidate?
    The Postie. But he's refusing to deliver....

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
  • Scott_P said:

    They just haven't decided who to rally round yet....

    Who is the Not Ed candidate?

    Alan Johnson - who is openly not plotting because that would destroy his chances like Heseltine did.
  • Carnyx said:

    From the ridiculous to the sublime: the Philae lander is now on the comet. I'm deeply impressed.

    Indeed, a truly remarkable feat of science and technology. - I wish I could get my TomTom to work nearly as accurately.
  • Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Scott_P said:

    Allies will use the poll to warn critics that their display of disunity has damaged their chances. But it will increase the sense of growing despair among many MPs who fear that Mr Miliband may be taking them to defeat.

    There are no details yet about tomorrow’s speech although Mr Miliband is expected to use it to explain why he became Labour leader and to set out a vision for the British economy.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4265572.ece

    More Ed. That's the answer. All Ed, all the time...

    Lucy Powell is a genius.

    "Mr Miliband is expected to use it to explain why he became Labour leader"

    Weird Ed's going to tell everyone the details of whatever deal he struck with McCluskey? I'm not sure that's wise...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    A stunning achievement, I'm bowled over (and hopefully Philae was not!).

    European cooperation (+Canada) at its best!
    Some very happy speakers. Teamwork and cooperation being highlighted.

    It's staggering - so many things could have gone wrong. It is awe-inspiring.

    Even if we get no video and the mission fails from now, we've already learnt a heck of a lot. Including the fact that comets tend to be lumpy and rather unsuitable for landing!

    I'm fully in favour of manned space travel (although fairly ambivalent about the ISS), but we should also be funding loads more missions like this, along with terrestrial planet finder style projects.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "12 data maps that sum up London":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29915801
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    Don't they need to put at least small relativistic corrections into the dynamics? I'm genuinely surprised they don't.

    Of course, there's quantum stuff in the electronic gubbins ... not to mention the solar panels.

  • Shadsy seems to be updating his constituency odds.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
    Have you been reading the memos?!
  • Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    Don't they need to put at least small relativistic corrections into the dynamics? I'm genuinely surprised they don't.

    Of course, there's quantum stuff in the electronic gubbins ... not to mention the solar panels.

    Yes to achieve the flight accuracy required for this will have needed relativistic effects to be taken into account - just as they are for the GPS system.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Carnyx said:

    From the ridiculous to the sublime: the Philae lander is now on the comet. I'm deeply impressed.

    Indeed, a truly remarkable feat of science and technology. - I wish I could get my TomTom to work nearly as accurately.
    My Tom Tom works OK I have to say.
    But in the increasingly Noeth Korean world of UKIP I don't expect them to acknowledge it's a Eurolander.
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
    Have you been reading the memos?!
    I'm not sure what you're referring to, but that looks like pretty obvious stuff to me. That's how I'd play it, anyway.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Mr Miliband is expected to use it [his speech] to explain why he became Labour leader and to set out a vision for the British economy."

    That's going to be a game changer of a speech then. Once Ed has explained why he became Labour leader the polls will shift massively in his favour, the Nation will be enthralled and motivated. Then we have his vision for the UK economy, which will be, no doubt, different from what he has said before, well, the sky is the limit. All bets off and a Labour to hit 50% in the polls by the weekend.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    AndyJS said:

    "12 data maps that sum up London":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29915801

    Call me a nerd, but I love these!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Even more amazing given the speed of the comet.
    The lander was travelling just as fast.
    But they were all moving like the rest of us under the influence of the immutable power and laws of gravity. Thats why you can tell with such certainty what time the high tide will be this time next year in any given spot on the planet.
  • Tories ahead in Ipsos-MORI?

    Must. Be. An. Outlier :)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    TO quote the late, great Douglas Adams: "Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
  • Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 3 mins3 minutes ago
    Labour sources: "We won't do a deal with Ukip".

    To which I say: "Yeah right". Given the choice between governing the country and refusing to accept supply and confidence from UKIP (as opposed to the DUP), Labour will regretfully decide that it has to govern the country.

    Anyway, MikeK's reposted tweet earlier hints that at the very least the DUP and UKIP are thinking about working together in a hung Parliament.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
    And the rest. Rosetta / Philae were launched in 2004; the tech inside would be years older than that due to design constraints. ISTR it is based on a joint NASA/ESA project to get a sample returned from a comet, which was judged as too complex, so ESA went alone for a landing. (Might be wrong in that though).

    All the electronics should be fairly rad-hardened, which precludes much cutting edge tech anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anorak said:

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    TO quote the late, great Douglas Adams: "Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
    I love the fact that Space is called "Space".. so literal!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
    Have you been reading the memos?!
    I'm not sure what you're referring to, but that looks like pretty obvious stuff to me. That's how I'd play it, anyway.
    No I think you are right.

    Getting the UKIP hustings list emailed to me.. The chance to take on Emily Thornberry or Diane Abbott is up for grabs.... hmm tempting!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    I'm staggered (no pun intended) is Screaming Eagles right? Has Farage offered Miliband a deal?

    I have been increasingly of the view that Farage's mind was off the rails but by what logic does he seek to destroy the tory party which is committed to a referendum but is willing to offer a deal to Miliband?

    The deal with Miliband would be to have an earlier referendum on Farage terms.
    An in out referendum is an in out referendum. Farage is happy to cosy up to labour and so encourage voters to vote labour and so see a plain labour victory. This compares with him saying no deal with tories under any circumstances.
    Extreme right wing Farage is rabidly anti centre right tory party but pro the Marxist Ed's Labour party.

    Farage lies yet again to justify this by pretending there is 'no left or right any more'. He might fool the dimwits with that load of self serving garbage but not me.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff

    Indeed. It's very wise of Farage to follow Nick Clegg's tried and trusted method of "I'll do a deal with whoever".

    That can only attract further votes and shore up the ones already held.

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Doesn't the Philae landing make you proud to be European?
    Lots of congratulatory speeches are being delivered.
    In English.
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
    Have you been reading the memos?!
    I'm not sure what you're referring to, but that looks like pretty obvious stuff to me. That's how I'd play it, anyway.
    No I think you are right.

    Getting the UKIP hustings list emailed to me.. The chance to take on Emily Thornberry or Diane Abbott is up for grabs.... hmm tempting!
    If you went for Emily Thornberry, you could canvass me for my vote over a pint sometime.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff

    Indeed. It's very wise of Farage to follow Nick Clegg's tried and trusted method of "I'll do a deal with whoever".

    That can only attract further votes and shore up the ones already held.

    Some might say you're using a small sample... and even then you are missing out the "won't be a coalition" bit

    Which is probably the main bit

    I know your main reason for that post was to make a clever clogs comment, but come on, up your game
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I'm staggered (no pun intended) is Screaming Eagles right? Has Farage offered Miliband a deal?

    I have been increasingly of the view that Farage's mind was off the rails but by what logic does he seek to destroy the tory party which is committed to a referendum but is willing to offer a deal to Miliband?

    The deal with Miliband would be to have an earlier referendum on Farage terms.
    An in out referendum is an in out referendum. Farage is happy to cosy up to labour and so encourage voters to vote labour and so see a plain labour victory. This compares with him saying no deal with tories under any circumstances.
    Extreme right wing Farage is rabidly anti centre right tory party but pro the Marxist Ed's Labour party.

    Farage lies yet again to justify this by pretending there is 'no left or right any more'. He might fool the dimwits with that load of self serving garbage but not me.
    "This compares with him saying no deal with tories under any circumstances."

    "In this week’s cover story, New Statesman editor Jason Cowley interviews Nigel Farage, the leader of Ukip, who reveals that he is prepared to do a deal with any party "

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-i-d-do-deal-labour
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:

    Some might say you're using a small sample,, and even then you are missing out the "wont be a coalition" bit

    Which is probably the main bit

    Propping up Miliband to deliver higher taxes, open door immigration, positive discrimination in the workplace etc etc. I wonder what Carswell and Reckless would say about that.

    Cameron's Christmas has come early.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2014
    The recounts in Kemptown went as follows, from the view of the successful (Lab) candidate:

    +302, +38, -1, +29, +10, +6, +7, +7
  • AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    "But the never-before-seen letters prove Boothby lied and show how close the pair were.
    They also highlight how Boothby was later proud to defend the criminal Kray twins in the House of Lords.
    Boothby and Kray had shared rent boys and their sexual antics were too base to be revealed in detail."


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205589/The-postcard-exposes-pervert-Tory-peers-lies-Ronnie-Kray-friend.html

    Article dated 2009. There was, of course, also a conspiracy theory that the twins were kept inside because of their links to politicians.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
    Have you been reading the memos?!
    I'm not sure what you're referring to, but that looks like pretty obvious stuff to me. That's how I'd play it, anyway.
    No I think you are right.

    Getting the UKIP hustings list emailed to me.. The chance to take on Emily Thornberry or Diane Abbott is up for grabs.... hmm tempting!
    If you went for Emily Thornberry, you could canvass me for my vote over a pint sometime.
    Isn’t that a corrupt incentive?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited November 2014

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
    And the rest. Rosetta / Philae were launched in 2004; the tech inside would be years older than that due to design constraints. ISTR it is based on a joint NASA/ESA project to get a sample returned from a comet, which was judged as too complex, so ESA went alone for a landing. (Might be wrong in that though).

    All the electronics should be fairly rad-hardened, which precludes much cutting edge tech anyway.
    And the power of its on-board computers is probably less than the average smart phone today. There again the programmers, or, more likely software engineers, that wrote the code were probably a bit more rigorous than one commonly finds around these days (they couldn't actually wait for a failure and say its patched in the next release).
  • Back from long lunch. What's happened?

    Ed is crap and Nigel has said he and his band of traitorous pig dogs will do a deal to put Ed in Downing Street
    Same old 'new politics' from the imitation insurgents then.
  • Toms said:

    Doesn't the Philae landing make you proud to be European?
    Lots of congratulatory speeches are being delivered.
    In English.

    Yes, a truly great achievement.
  • antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/red-ukip-farage-claims-he-will-prop-up-miliband/

    Ignore the synthetic outrage about Nigel Farage envisaging circumstances where he'd prop up Ed Miliband (of course he would if it suited him). The important point here is that any bet on UKIP being in any form of coalition after the election looks likely to be a losing bet.

    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
    Have you been reading the memos?!
    I'm not sure what you're referring to, but that looks like pretty obvious stuff to me. That's how I'd play it, anyway.
    No I think you are right.

    Getting the UKIP hustings list emailed to me.. The chance to take on Emily Thornberry or Diane Abbott is up for grabs.... hmm tempting!
    If you went for Emily Thornberry, you could canvass me for my vote over a pint sometime.
    Isn’t that a corrupt incentive?
    If I pay for my own pint, that should be ok, shouldn't it?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Philae Lander has tweeted - New address 67P!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    Some might say you're using a small sample,, and even then you are missing out the "wont be a coalition" bit

    Which is probably the main bit

    Propping up Miliband to deliver higher taxes, open door immigration, positive discrimination in the workplace etc etc. I wonder what Carswell and Reckless would say about that.

    Cameron's Christmas has come early.

    Yes it must be a great time to be the Conservative party leader
  • chestnut said:

    isam said:

    Some might say you're using a small sample,, and even then you are missing out the "wont be a coalition" bit

    Which is probably the main bit

    Propping up Miliband to deliver higher taxes, open door immigration, positive discrimination in the workplace etc etc. I wonder what Carswell and Reckless would say about that.

    Cameron's Christmas has come early.

    I imagine they'd say UKIP would selflessly enter a coalition precisely to stop Lab/Con importing Euro-babies to eat. The LibDems will say much the same, and the Conservatives the opposite: that it was only the LibDems that stopped Cameron and Osborne delivering free gold bars to every freeborn Englishman.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    GBP down to almost 1.58
  • UKIP will not enter a coalition (any more than the SNP will). They have no reason to do so.

    If UKIP can take say 9 MPs to Westminster to match the 9 of the DUP, you have a paleo-bloc in the House of Commons that's worth reckoning with. Provided they can agree a common agenda, which seems likely to me, they may well be able to make the difference between a majority and a minority government (though probably not to choose which minority government unless numbers are very finely balanced indeed).

    Their ideal would be a Labour minority government that has to construct majorities on an issue-by-issue basis. UKIP can then oppose the politically correct measures, confident that either the government will get them through on the back of Lib Dem and SNP votes or that the government will have to rein back its ambitions, supporting Labour only on a relatively small number of big measures.

    Meanwhile, the Conservatives would in all likelihood be indulging in fratricide.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:
    This is brilliant frothing!

    The day after Farage said he would do a deal with either party in return for a referendum if seats allowed the mirror from page was

    'Farage: I'll prop up Tories'

    And lefties fumed and warned against voting Ukip

    Now the Tories are doing the same... They're all just dancing to his tune, great stuff
    If one is in a position to strike a bargain, it makes no sense at all to close down options in advance. In practice, I doubt if Labour could offer Farage anything he wanted. But, if he wants to enhance any deal he's offered by the Tories, it does no harm to imply that other options are available.

    If I were Nigel Farage in a hung Parliament where UKIP's votes counted, my chief aim would be to sow as much dissent in the Conservative party as possible. That would be easiest achieved by putting them in Opposition, where they could cheerfully indulge in a bout of blood-letting, with a decent chance that he might pick up quite a few MPs through further defections.

    Add to that the fact that Ed Miliband isn't the sort of guy who as Prime Minister would tower above junior partners in a government, and a supply and confidence deal with Labour where UKIP was constantly threatening to walk out on the deal looks very tempting indeed to me from UKIP's perspective.
    Have you been reading the memos?!
    I'm not sure what you're referring to, but that looks like pretty obvious stuff to me. That's how I'd play it, anyway.
    No I think you are right.

    Getting the UKIP hustings list emailed to me.. The chance to take on Emily Thornberry or Diane Abbott is up for grabs.... hmm tempting!
    If you went for Emily Thornberry, you could canvass me for my vote over a pint sometime.

    If I do, I will, but I don't think it is prime Kipper territory?!

    "The constituency was in 2005 described as

    'A part-grand, part-poor metaphor for New Labour; Tony Blair lived here prior to his election as prime minister. Its dinner tables are routinely maligned as the natural habitat of the hypocritical, well-off, ostensibly liberal "chattering classes". !

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islington_South_and_Finsbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Despite my London rants, I do actually like going out in that area, just that I feel for people who were born there that don't like the change that's all. Some of my family are from Islington so maybe I will play on historical links!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
    And the rest. Rosetta / Philae were launched in 2004; the tech inside would be years older than that due to design constraints. ISTR it is based on a joint NASA/ESA project to get a sample returned from a comet, which was judged as too complex, so ESA went alone for a landing. (Might be wrong in that though).

    All the electronics should be fairly rad-hardened, which precludes much cutting edge tech anyway.
    And the power of its on-board computers is probably less than the average smart phone today. There again the programmers, or, more likely software engineers, that wrote the code were probably a bit more rigorous than one commonly finds around these days (they couldn't actually wait for a failure and say its patched in the next release).
    That's a little unfair. I work (or at least worked) in consumer electronics, where things are fairly lax: often the main criteria is "deliver whatever the customer will accept", although often put in neater terms. If your Set Top Box fails every month, the customer just reboots and nobody dies.

    I've also worked slightly in automotive, which is a whole different world and things are much more stringently managed. And the costs go up, too.

    Then there is aeronautics, military, and space. As a massive generalisation, in terms of care taken to erase bugs:

    consumer electronics < automotive < aeronautics < military < space.

    I could deliver you a STB, radio or GPS receiver with airliner-style reliability. It would cost the customer many times what they currently cost, though, and be heavier, and require more power.

    We do the work the customer requires. When I've worked on automotive, I have a very different mindset to that of basic consumer electronics.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    I'm staggered (no pun intended) is Screaming Eagles right? Has Farage offered Miliband a deal?

    I have been increasingly of the view that Farage's mind was off the rails but by what logic does he seek to destroy the tory party which is committed to a referendum but is willing to offer a deal to Miliband?

    The deal with Miliband would be to have an earlier referendum on Farage terms.
    An in out referendum is an in out referendum. Farage is happy to cosy up to labour and so encourage voters to vote labour and so see a plain labour victory. This compares with him saying no deal with tories under any circumstances.
    Extreme right wing Farage is rabidly anti centre right tory party but pro the Marxist Ed's Labour party.

    Farage lies yet again to justify this by pretending there is 'no left or right any more'. He might fool the dimwits with that load of self serving garbage but not me.
    And of course the thing that Nigel mosts dreads is an EU referendum. So he and Ed are made for each other.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
    And the rest. Rosetta / Philae were launched in 2004; the tech inside would be years older than that due to design constraints. ISTR it is based on a joint NASA/ESA project to get a sample returned from a comet, which was judged as too complex, so ESA went alone for a landing. (Might be wrong in that though).

    All the electronics should be fairly rad-hardened, which precludes much cutting edge tech anyway.
    And the power of its on-board computers is probably less than the average smart phone today. There again the programmers, or, more likely software engineers, that wrote the code were probably a bit more rigorous than one commonly finds around these days (they couldn't actually wait for a failure and say its patched in the next release).
    That's a little unfair. I work (or at least worked) in consumer electronics, where things are fairly lax: often the main criteria is "deliver whatever the customer will accept", although often put in neater terms. If your Set Top Box fails every month, the customer just reboots and nobody dies.

    I've also worked slightly in automotive, which is a whole different world and things are much more stringently managed. And the costs go up, too.

    Then there is aeronautics, military, and space. As a massive generalisation, in terms of care taken to erase bugs:

    consumer electronics < automotive < aeronautics < military < space.

    I could deliver you a STB, radio or GPS receiver with airliner-style reliability. It would cost the customer many times what they currently cost, though, and be heavier, and require more power.

    We do the work the customer requires. When I've worked on automotive, I have a very different mindset to that of basic consumer electronics.
    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    isam said:

    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    Some might say you're using a small sample,, and even then you are missing out the "wont be a coalition" bit

    Which is probably the main bit

    Propping up Miliband to deliver higher taxes, open door immigration, positive discrimination in the workplace etc etc. I wonder what Carswell and Reckless would say about that.

    Cameron's Christmas has come early.

    Yes it must be a great time to be the Conservative party leader
    I've certainly known far worse times, from say November 1992 right through to December 2005 (when Dave became leader) for example.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Evening all. Very worthwhile video interview on Syria with The Independent's Robert Fisk: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s4125600.htm
This discussion has been closed.