Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leade

1235

Comments

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The Mail have a graphic showing party leader satisfied/dissatisfied numbers going back to 1978.

    They don't seem to predict the election result.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2831506/Miliband-popular-leader-Devastating-poll-reveals-just-13-think-ready-PM-Tories-build-3-point-lead.html
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    What did Farage say?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
    And the rest. Rosetta / Philae were launched in 2004; the tech inside would be years older than that due to design constraints. ISTR it is based on a joint NASA/ESA project to get a sample returned from a comet, which was judged as too complex, so ESA went alone for a landing. (Might be wrong in that though).

    All the electronics should be fairly rad-hardened, which precludes much cutting edge tech anyway.
    And the power of its on-board computers is probably less than the average smart phone today. There again the programmers, or, more likely software engineers, that wrote the code were probably a bit more rigorous than one commonly finds around these days (they couldn't actually wait for a failure and say its patched in the next release).
    That's a little unfair. I work (or at least worked) in consumer electronics, where things are fairly lax: often the main criteria is "deliver whatever the customer will accept", although often put in neater terms. If your Set Top Box fails every month, the customer just reboots and nobody dies.

    I've also worked slightly in automotive, which is a whole different world and things are much more stringently managed. And the costs go up, too.

    Then there is aeronautics, military, and space. As a massive generalisation, in terms of care taken to erase bugs:

    consumer electronics < automotive < aeronautics < military < space.

    I could deliver you a STB, radio or GPS receiver with airliner-style reliability. It would cost the customer many times what they currently cost, though, and be heavier, and require more power.

    We do the work the customer requires. When I've worked on automotive, I have a very different mindset to that of basic consumer electronics.
    Fair go, Mr. J., and maybe I was being a little unfair. One thing though, years ago I had an Atari 512K computer and the games and graphics that it could run were astonishing given the memory and processor available. Furthermore in those days when one bought a programme it was finished and largely, in fact almost totally, bug free. If only consumer electronics had maintained the same standard of coding, I blame Bill Gates.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    They don't only want to convert Tories.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138

    Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.
    Amused people still fall for this, although it's a 'were sighted' claim. No satellite photos of course, even though it is impossible for a column of tanks to be not picked up on the few main roads crossing the border. OSCE not supporting these claims either, only that they have seen the rebels shifting their own forces internally.

    What ceasefire anyway, the government forces have failed to withdraw under the Minsk proposals and have continued to shell civilian areas. It is possible Kiev is about to start a new offensive and it will do so because it knows it has little chance of surviving the winter in its current condition and that "International" aid will only flow as a reward for provoking a Russian intervention. In that sense the ridiculous claims of Russian Invasion are a prelude argument. If Russia does intervene against a mass provocation/offensive, Kiev will simply claim that they were right and that the Russian army was there all the time. Personally I wouldn't expect a new offensive to have any more success than the last one and ultimately the rebels would likely make sizable new gains and liberate further areas in the South and East.
    Maybe they will discover a video with the plume the BUK left.
    Or perhaps the missing Kiev air traffic control tapes.

    Or I might see and catch the tooth fairy tonight. She's more credible than the media on this.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The Mail have a graphic showing party leader satisfied/dissatisfied numbers going back to 1978.

    They don't seem to predict the election result.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2831506/Miliband-popular-leader-Devastating-poll-reveals-just-13-think-ready-PM-Tories-build-3-point-lead.html

    They seem quite predictive to me!

    OGH used to post the ratings for opposition leaders in the months since they took the post. Miliband must be looking like quite a loser on that front now. Tim used to say that the Labour brand would save him but I'm not so sure he'd say the same now.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    https://soundcloud.com/esaops/a-singing-comet

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-30023776

    I believe it's the moog from "Close Encounters of the 3rd Kind".
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Neil said:

    The Mail have a graphic showing party leader satisfied/dissatisfied numbers going back to 1978.

    They don't seem to predict the election result.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2831506/Miliband-popular-leader-Devastating-poll-reveals-just-13-think-ready-PM-Tories-build-3-point-lead.html

    They seem quite predictive to me!

    OGH used to post the ratings for opposition leaders in the months since they took the post. Miliband must be looking like quite a loser on that front now. Tim used to say that the Labour brand would save him but I'm not so sure he'd say the same now.
    1986, 2004 the winner had worse numbers than the loser.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited November 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Coarse Blaggard; oh you mean one D. Cameron.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Swiss_Bob said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    Not good at all. "Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine along with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Nato commander says".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30025138

    Maybe to shore up gains ahead of winter? Also the oil price drops will soon act as an inhibitor to Russia. Let us hope that winter comes soon and the oil price stays low or drops even lower.
    Amused people still fall for this, although it's a 'were sighted' claim. No satellite photos of course, even though it is impossible for a column of tanks to be not picked up on the few main roads crossing the border. OSCE not supporting these claims either, only that they have seen the rebels shifting their own forces internally.

    What ceasefire anyway, the government forces have failed to withdraw under the Minsk proposals and have continued to shell civilian areas. It is possible Kiev is about to start a new offensive and it will do so because it knows it has little chance of surviving the winter in its current condition and that "International" aid will only flow as a reward for provoking a Russian intervention. In that sense the ridiculous claims of Russian Invasion are a prelude argument. If Russia does intervene against a mass provocation/offensive, Kiev will simply claim that they were right and that the Russian army was there all the time. Personally I wouldn't expect a new offensive to have any more success than the last one and ultimately the rebels would likely make sizable new gains and liberate further areas in the South and East.
    NATO has backed the claim:

    Nato officials have seen Russian military equipment and Russian combat troops entering Ukraine this week, its top commander says.

    "Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops" were sighted, US Gen Philip Breedlove said.


    Edit. I see that's what you were replying to. Fair enough if you don't believe it.
    So NATO says...will they provide satellite photos this time?

    After all there were plenty of photos of tanks massing up on the Russian side of the border a few months ago. None actually in Ukraine.

    NATO, which unlike Russia has actually bombarded a European capital from the air in the last 15 years. Including such military targets as the local equivalent of the BBC. Yep, the same NATO. As objective as the BBC.
  • Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 3 mins3 minutes ago
    William Hill betting http://goo.gl/jBN1WA : CON cut from evens to 10/11 to win the most GE seats & now joint favourites with LAB

    Both Ladbrokes and now William Hill. But you can still back the Conservatives for most seats at 6/5 on Betfair with good liquidity.

    Sporting Index hasn't reopened its Most Seats index, but the midpoints of its seat spreads are Lab 289, Con (including the Speaker) 283, LD 30, UKIP 10, SNP 19.5. That totals 631.5, implying that Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Respect will get 0.5 of a seat between them (they currently hold five between them).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    Arch Kipper Matthew D'Ancona speaks

    Going back on Cameron's word is a gift for Ukip

    "This column has often taken issue with Ukip but on this occasion the party’s claims about the political class have been thoroughly vindicated. How detached does a governing caucus have to be not to grasp that this parliamentary device was bound to fail, toxically so?

    Technical compliance with a political promise — as opposed to full, emotional delivery — is hugely corrosive of trust. You may as well say to the electorate: you should have read the small print. Ukip has surged for many reasons, prime among them the sense that politicians say one thing and do another.

    It is astonishing to watch ministers, less than six months before the general election, so bewitched by their own dubious logic that they miss the wave of fury heading their way. Law and order measures can be scrutinised individually. But governments fall together."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-going-back-on-camerons-word-is-a-gift-for-ukip-9856264.html

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Anorak said:

    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...

    BAE only managed level 3! That is astonishing. Big And Expensive may not be so much as the jewel in the UK industrial crown as a vampire sucking the life blood of money from the UK taxpayer (see the latest fiasco on the T26 order for the most recent example).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014

    Anorak said:

    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...

    BAE only managed level 3! That is astonishing. Big And Expensive may not be so much as the jewel in the UK industrial crown as a vampire sucking the life blood of money from the UK taxpayer (see the latest fiasco on the T26 order for the most recent example).
    :)
    I think the point was that only NASA planned thoroughly for several decades into the future. No one else comes close.

    [As an ex-BAE Systems employee, I should umbridge at your remark! But I won't, as you're largely correct. I would say that HMG is equally to blame in most cases.]
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

  • Good evening, everyone.

    Huzzah for the triumphant landing of the probe! The ESA has boldly probed where no man has probed before.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfair need to open up an new over/under for the SNP. Current market is 11.5 and it's basically headed to 1.01
  • Labour's inability to remove hopeless EdM highlights its incompetence and unfit status. It's high time this pathetic political grouping was consigned to the dustbin of history.
  • Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...

    BAE only managed level 3! That is astonishing. Big And Expensive may not be so much as the jewel in the UK industrial crown as a vampire sucking the life blood of money from the UK taxpayer (see the latest fiasco on the T26 order for the most recent example).
    :)
    I think the point was that only NASA planned thoroughly for several decades into the future. No one else comes close.

    [As an ex-BAE Systems employee, I should umbridge at your remark! But I won't, as you're largely correct. I would say that HMG is equally to blame in most cases.]
    Hmm, well. NASA spends a lot of time planning decades into the future because most of its current budgets have been slashed to the bone, and its trying to entice politicians to fund them again.

    As an aside the bug-rate in NASA's mission critical computer code is (a) surprisingly high and (b) a lot lower than in the vast majority of computer code... [and soon we'll be relying on computers for everything! ;-P]
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Labour's inability to remove hopeless EdM highlights its incompetence and unfit status. It's high time this pathetic political grouping was consigned to the dustbin of history.

    What it shows is that nothing has changed since 1983. It was obvious Foot was going to lose and that Healey was the better option, but they stuck with him nonetheless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Alistair said:

    Betfair need to open up an new over/under for the SNP. Current market is 11.5 and it's basically headed to 1.01

    I'd lay it at 1.01...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...

    BAE only managed level 3! That is astonishing. Big And Expensive may not be so much as the jewel in the UK industrial crown as a vampire sucking the life blood of money from the UK taxpayer (see the latest fiasco on the T26 order for the most recent example).
    :)
    I think the point was that only NASA planned thoroughly for several decades into the future. No one else comes close.

    [As an ex-BAE Systems employee, I should umbridge at your remark! But I won't, as you're largely correct. I would say that HMG is equally to blame in most cases.]
    Hmm, well. NASA spends a lot of time planning decades into the future because most of its current budgets have been slashed to the bone, and its trying to entice politicians to fund them again.

    As an aside the bug-rate in NASA's mission critical computer code is (a) surprisingly high and (b) a lot lower than in the vast majority of computer code... [and soon we'll be relying on computers for everything! ;-P]
    This was in the mid-90s, when their budgets were nice and fat. I think the current squeeze may be a good thing in the long run as it will remove bloat and reinstall a mind-set focused on efficiency.
  • Toms said:

    Doesn't the Philae landing make you proud to be European?
    Lots of congratulatory speeches are being delivered.
    In English.

    Yes, a truly great achievement.
    Fantastic achievement but no of course should not make anyone proud to be European any more than Apollo makes me proud to be American.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...

    BAE only managed level 3! That is astonishing. Big And Expensive may not be so much as the jewel in the UK industrial crown as a vampire sucking the life blood of money from the UK taxpayer (see the latest fiasco on the T26 order for the most recent example).
    :)
    I think the point was that only NASA planned thoroughly for several decades into the future. No one else comes close.

    [As an ex-BAE Systems employee, I should umbridge at your remark! But I won't, as you're largely correct. I would say that HMG is equally to blame in most cases.]
    Hmm, well. NASA spends a lot of time planning decades into the future because most of its current budgets have been slashed to the bone, and its trying to entice politicians to fund them again.

    As an aside the bug-rate in NASA's mission critical computer code is (a) surprisingly high and (b) a lot lower than in the vast majority of computer code... [and soon we'll be relying on computers for everything! ;-P]
    I took the 'decades' comment about NASA to mean the length of time software and hardware they developed had to run and be managed - probes can take years or decades to reach their destination, and a ground team of varying sizes is needed throughout.

    I'd be interested to see where you get your comments about NASA's bugs from: if you use a measure of number of bugs per thousands lines of code (and yes, I know the myriad of problems with such definitions), then they're generally quite fantastic. But they also build rather fat redundancies into their systems as well.

    I've worked with VxWorks, which is used by some space probes, and it's blooming brilliant, if limited.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Link doesn't quite live up to the description.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    The odds before Shadsy took his constituency markets offline were;

    Con 13/8
    LD 4/9
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...

    BAE only managed level 3! That is astonishing. Big And Expensive may not be so much as the jewel in the UK industrial crown as a vampire sucking the life blood of money from the UK taxpayer (see the latest fiasco on the T26 order for the most recent example).
    :)
    I think the point was that only NASA planned thoroughly for several decades into the future. No one else comes close.

    [As an ex-BAE Systems employee, I should umbridge at your remark! But I won't, as you're largely correct. I would say that HMG is equally to blame in most cases.]
    Hmm, well. NASA spends a lot of time planning decades into the future because most of its current budgets have been slashed to the bone, and its trying to entice politicians to fund them again.

    As an aside the bug-rate in NASA's mission critical computer code is (a) surprisingly high and (b) a lot lower than in the vast majority of computer code... [and soon we'll be relying on computers for everything! ;-P]
    I took the 'decades' comment about NASA to mean the length of time software and hardware they developed had to run and be managed - probes can take years or decades to reach their destination, and a ground team of varying sizes is needed throughout.

    I'd be interested to see where you get your comments about NASA's bugs from: if you use a measure of number of bugs per thousands lines of code (and yes, I know the myriad of problems with such definitions), then they're generally quite fantastic. But they also build rather fat redundancies into their systems as well.

    I've worked with VxWorks, which is used by some space probes, and it's blooming brilliant, if limited.
    It was the planning of missions which will not *begin* for decades, and which may then *run* for decades. Identifying technology gaps, setting up research programmes to fill the gaps, conceptual through to detailed design, prototyping and testing, post-launch mission management, life extension programmes, gaming of failure modes, contingency planning up to the eyeballs, etc, etc, etc.

    Software is a very small fraction of the whole.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
  • There's a big difference between an MP assiduously cultivating his constituency in the run-up to an election and him thinking he's going to lose it.
  • Anorak said:

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
    And the rest. Rosetta / Philae were launched in 2004; the tech inside would be years older than that due to design constraints. ISTR it is based on a joint NASA/ESA project to get a sample returned from a comet, which was judged as too complex, so ESA went alone for a landing. (Might be wrong in that though).

    All the electronics should be fairly rad-hardened, which precludes much cutting edge tech anyway.
    .
    That's a little unfair. I work (or at least worked) in consumer electronics, where things are fairly lax: often the main criteria is "deliver whatever the customer will accept", although often put in neater terms. If your Set Top Box fails every month, the customer just reboots and nobody dies.

    I've also worked slightly in automotive, which is a whole different world and things are much more stringently managed. And the costs go up, too.

    Then there is aeronautics, military, and space. As a massive generalisation, in terms of care taken to erase bugs:

    consumer electronics < automotive < aeronautics < military < space.

    I could deliver you a STB, radio or GPS receiver with airliner-style reliability. It would cost the customer many times what they currently cost, though, and be heavier, and require more power.

    We do the work the customer requires. When I've worked on automotive, I have a very different mindset to that of basic consumer electronics.
    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...
    Sounds like a crap course then.

    NASA exists to keep NASA in existence, hence the constant stupid white elephant projects such as exploding space shuttles.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    antifrank said:

    There's a big difference between an MP assiduously cultivating his constituency in the run-up to an election and him thinking he's going to lose it.

    3/4 days a week, six months before the election? Looks like panic to me.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    antifrank said:

    There's a big difference between an MP assiduously cultivating his constituency in the run-up to an election and him thinking he's going to lose it.

    3/4 days a week, six months before the election? Looks like panic to me.

    I'd be very glad if Ed Davey was booted out - Mr Smug McSmug.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2014

    Good evening, everyone.

    Huzzah for the triumphant landing of the probe! The ESA has boldly probed where no man has probed before.

    I say Mr Dancer – I fear too much fraternisation with TSE is beginning to rub off…! ; )

    [edit] And a good evening to you to.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    RobD said:

    The comet landing is truly amazing, when you think about how small the comet is, and how big space is!

    Wonderful, ain't it? And all done with Newtonian mathematics, not a quantum or a String Theory or a Higgs Boson in sight, not even a morsel of Chaos Theory. Honest to goodness English mathematics brings home the bacon yet again.
    And the technology is ten years old!
    And the rest. Rosetta / Philae were launched in 2004; the tech inside would be years older than that due to design constraints. ISTR it is based on a joint NASA/ESA project to get a sample returned from a comet, which was judged as too complex, so ESA went alone for a landing. (Might be wrong in that though).

    All the electronics should be fairly rad-hardened, which precludes much cutting edge tech anyway.
    .
    That's a little unfair. I work (or at least worked) in consumer electronics, where things are fairly lax: often the main criteria is "deliver whatever the customer will accept", although often put in neater terms. If your Set Top Box fails every month, the customer just reboots and nobody dies.

    I've also worked slightly in automotive, which is a whole different world and things are much more stringently managed. And the costs go up, too.

    Then there is aeronautics, military, and space. As a massive generalisation, in terms of care taken to erase bugs:

    consumer electronics < automotive < aeronautics < military < space.

    I could deliver you a STB, radio or GPS receiver with airliner-style reliability. It would cost the customer many times what they currently cost, though, and be heavier, and require more power.

    We do the work the customer requires. When I've worked on automotive, I have a very different mindset to that of basic consumer electronics.
    I once went on a course on project management and process control (lucky me!). The tutor introduced a system whereby companies were ranked as 1 to 5 in terms of the rigour they applied to managing major projects.
    If your company makes kettles and toasters, it's probably a 1
    BAE Systems would be a 3
    NASA was the only entity rating a 5
    There were no companies rating a 4 ...
    Sounds like a crap course then.
    Meh. Been on worse. I think a "self-awareness workshop" our HR dept assured us would boost "networking and communication skills" and foster a more "collegiate environment" is top of the list. Although the presenter there was rather a lovely minx, I seem to recall.
  • TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    "And I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it. But it really has got to me. I've voiced it live, not in front of the press or anywhere. I'm not even going to the press conference. But the battle is still on and UKIP have not won this yet!"
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    It's fun playing with the big boys, isn't it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anorak said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    It's fun playing with the big boys, isn't it.
    Oh God that's embarrassing!

    Delete it quick and no one need know you wrote it
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Euston station-master wears top hat to greet Wilson...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    Primaries won't (or shouldn't) be a thing this late, need candidates in place by now.

    Most of the rest, quite probably.
  • Mr. StClare, ha, there's a shade of such humour in Sir Edric's Temple, it must be confessed.

    Always good to see the boundaries of knowledge being pushed forward.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    "And I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it. But it really has got to me. I've voiced it live, not in front of the press or anywhere. I'm not even going to the press conference. But the battle is still on and UKIP have not won this yet!"
    :-)

    It's a game of two halves.
  • antifrank said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 3 mins3 minutes ago
    William Hill betting http://goo.gl/jBN1WA : CON cut from evens to 10/11 to win the most GE seats & now joint favourites with LAB

    Both Ladbrokes and now William Hill. But you can still back the Conservatives for most seats at 6/5 on Betfair with good liquidity.

    Sporting Index hasn't reopened its Most Seats index, but the midpoints of its seat spreads are Lab 289, Con (including the Speaker) 283, LD 30, UKIP 10, SNP 19.5. That totals 631.5, implying that Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Respect will get 0.5 of a seat between them (they currently hold five between them).

    10/11 each of two. That's bookmakers for you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    Primaries won't (or shouldn't) be a thing this late, need candidates in place by now.

    Most of the rest, quite probably.
    Doesn't seem to be working as yet does it?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Amid all the excitement of the accelerating Labour / Ed meltdown, let us not forget bigger things are afoot in the world that will force politicians into actions and directions they may not like (especially if they are lefties):

    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh

    Japan's debt/GDP is 250% and worsening fast. The only route open to them is to destroy the Yen. Utterly. And therefore the Japanese government bond market. The BoJ has gone 'all in' on MASSIVE quantitative easing. Global government bond markets are going to be ravaged. Deficit funded welfare states wound up sooner rather than later.

    No, because most of this debt is internal to Japan, just as ours is to Britain. As a separate consideration, the exchange rate is not a virility symbol; exporting nations (like China and Germany) generally prefer lower rates.
    Read the linked article. What will happen if Japan goes under? And, yes exports become more competitive - unless China, Korea, Taiwan etc respond in kind! But what about imports? Japan has no energy resources of its own. Gas costs $4 in the USA Henry Hub and $15 in Tokyo Bay! Really consider the implications. Japan can't afford its energy. 2008 is going to be a picnic compared to the global instability that's coming.
    Patrick, you have gone all Tapestry on us.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    oh what a shame - will be ready to celebrate his downfall, another useless green clown.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    isam said:

    Anorak said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    It's fun playing with the big boys, isn't it.
    Oh God that's embarrassing!

    Delete it quick and no one need know you wrote it
    You're whining about negative campaigning. This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are. [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]

    And I'm the one who should be embarrassed. Ok, got it.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Major news alert...
    A probing Farage has landed on a cold icy low gravity and distant Miliband. There is some concern among scientists that the Euro-inspired Farage will not be able to defy its own gravitas long enoung to fulfill its mission.
  • Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hmmm! Ed is not very good is he? Has anyone else noticed?
  • My prediction for Double Carpet's "Election Game" - Reckless wins by 3,566 votes.

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/rochester-strood/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anorak said:

    isam said:

    Anorak said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    It's fun playing with the big boys, isn't it.
    Oh God that's embarrassing!

    Delete it quick and no one need know you wrote it
    You're whining about negative campaigning. This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are. [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]

    And I'm the one who should be embarrassed. Ok, got it.
    You should be embarrassed for sounding like such a nause!

    I didn't whine, I stated the facts and offered no opinion.. you projected what you wanted to see onto it, as you have just done with the silly "brown people" comment

    Big Boy!
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    Primaries won't (or shouldn't) be a thing this late, need candidates in place by now.

    Most of the rest, quite probably.
    Doesn't seem to be working as yet does it?
    Not really.

    You have any read on what UKIP's local organisation is like (either general or seat specific), I suspect it'll be patchy and that'll hit UKIP's overall vote total if not necessarily its seat total.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Labour's inability to remove hopeless EdM highlights its incompetence and unfit status. It's high time this pathetic political grouping was consigned to the dustbin of history.

    Its true that Ed is useless and is making a poor fist at demonstrating the virues of himself and Labour.
    But thats not to say he would not be competent and assiduous in following his policies in government. Thats the problem for the country.
    And then you have to look at all the other ministers that there would be, all very competently following their socialist policies.
    These people are blinkered socialists. Only a blinkered Farage would want to keep them in power.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited November 2014

    Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
    Except thats not what he is saying. But a leading UKIP MEP did call another of her brown supporters a 'ting tong' and then had the nerve to say they were being selfish in complaining.
    Its your saddo problem if you want to associate with that kind of party.
  • Quite, Dr. Spyn. If memory serves the hypocrite Davey is pro-green levy but buys his electricity from a small firm.

    Small firms, it seems, don't have the pay the green levy, so he gets a cheaper bill.
  • Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
    Except thats not what he is saying. But a leading UKIP MEP did call another of her brown supporters a 'ting tong' and then had the nerve to say they were being selfish in complaining.
    Its your saddo problem if you want to associate with that kind of party.
    Right, so Flightpath also thinks I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP!

    The PB Tory racism is worse than we imagined!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    Primaries won't (or shouldn't) be a thing this late, need candidates in place by now.

    Most of the rest, quite probably.
    Doesn't seem to be working as yet does it?
    Not really.

    You have any read on what UKIP's local organisation is like (either general or seat specific), I suspect it'll be patchy and that'll hit UKIP's overall vote total if not necessarily its seat total.
    All I have seen is Clacton, but that is a one off which couldn't be replicated at a GE

    Thurrock is meant to be very good, probably the best they/we have

    I have nothing to compare them with though, as the politics game is v new to me

    I am now off to Upton Park to watch a load of immigrants play football, 50% of whom will be Eastern European!
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Anorak said:

    You're whining about negative campaigning. This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are. [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]

    And I'm the one who should be embarrassed. Ok, got it.

    At the last Euro Elections, UKIP campaigned against unrestricted EU immigration, especially mentioning Romanians.

    As you don't seem to have noticed, Europe is full of White people.

    This makes, in a strong field, your 'brown people' comment the favourite in the PB Most Cretinous Comment of 2014 Stakes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
    Except thats not what he is saying. But a leading UKIP MEP did call another of her brown supporters a 'ting tong' and then had the nerve to say they were being selfish in complaining.
    Its your saddo problem if you want to associate with that kind of party.
    Right, so Flightpath also thinks I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP!

    The PB Tory racism is worse than we imagined!
    !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
    Except thats not what he is saying. But a leading UKIP MEP did call another of her brown supporters a 'ting tong' and then had the nerve to say they were being selfish in complaining.
    Its your saddo problem if you want to associate with that kind of party.
    Right, so Flightpath also thinks I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP!

    The PB Tory racism is worse than we imagined!
    Imagine the surprise on Luke Flightpaths face when Darth Tyndall tells him the truth about his father....
  • antifrank said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 3 mins3 minutes ago
    William Hill betting http://goo.gl/jBN1WA : CON cut from evens to 10/11 to win the most GE seats & now joint favourites with LAB

    Both Ladbrokes and now William Hill. But you can still back the Conservatives for most seats at 6/5 on Betfair with good liquidity.

    Sporting Index hasn't reopened its Most Seats index, but the midpoints of its seat spreads are Lab 289, Con (including the Speaker) 283, LD 30, UKIP 10, SNP 19.5. That totals 631.5, implying that Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Respect will get 0.5 of a seat between them (they currently hold five between them).

    10/11 each of two. That's bookmakers for you.
    Well, the 10/11 on Labour Most Seats and the 10/3 on a Labour Majority are both better than the betfair offering, with commission taken into account. It's not simply the case that bookies are shadowing betfair on all markets; there's clearly a fair bit of opinion in there too.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited November 2014

    Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
    Except thats not what he is saying. But a leading UKIP MEP did call another of her brown supporters a 'ting tong' and then had the nerve to say they were being selfish in complaining.
    Its your saddo problem if you want to associate with that kind of party.
    Well, perhaps it would be better if they didn't name their restaurants Ting Tong, then?

    http://www.tingtongthai.co.uk/#!about/c1pyv
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    No surprise to see the pro-Conservative blogger playing the usual game. In fact, the recent Tudor by-election wasn't too bad for the LDs and while losing control of the Borough in May was a blow, it's far from a lost cause.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Cap'n Bob and Bessell in...
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014
    That it seems some Tories seem to think that the immigration issue is solely about 'brown people' demonstrates perfectly how they haven't learned a damned thing in 40 years!

    Perhaps Labour were right all along about the Conservative Party?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564



    Well, the 10/11 on Labour Most Seats and the 10/3 on a Labour Majority are both better than the betfair offering, with commission taken into account. It's not simply the case that bookies are shadowing betfair on all markets; there's clearly a fair bit of opinion in there too.

    Not really - they balance their own books most of the time.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @LordAshcroft: OMG! George Osborne poised to take up our @ConHome manifesto proposal for a Sovereign Wealth Fund. What next? http://t.co/6hiECDdrm2

    Fracking funds to save not pay off debts ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TGOHF said:

    @LordAshcroft: OMG! George Osborne poised to take up our @ConHome manifesto proposal for a Sovereign Wealth Fund. What next? http://t.co/6hiECDdrm2

    Fracking funds to save not pay off debts ?

    The man's always been an idiot. File under gimmick.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Currently on BBC Radio 3 - Mozart with Kiss My Arse.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leck_mich_im_Arsch
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    antifrank said:

    There's a big difference between an MP assiduously cultivating his constituency in the run-up to an election and him thinking he's going to lose it.

    3/4 days a week, six months before the election? Looks like panic to me.

    Haven't read the link as it's old Guido, yuck, but if he's saying he is 3-4 days doing stuff with voters in the constituency, that's not unusual. 3 days is standard (Fri-Sun) and I don't get the impression that there's much government business these days.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Anorak

    ' [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]'

    To be fair I rather like the uniforms for taxi driver's policy but don't know if Farage's plan to privatize the NHS is his own policy or UKIP's
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    Primaries won't (or shouldn't) be a thing this late, need candidates in place by now.

    Most of the rest, quite probably.
    Doesn't seem to be working as yet does it?
    Not really.

    You have any read on what UKIP's local organisation is like (either general or seat specific), I suspect it'll be patchy and that'll hit UKIP's overall vote total if not necessarily its seat total.
    All I have seen is Clacton, but that is a one off which couldn't be replicated at a GE

    Thurrock is meant to be very good, probably the best they/we have

    I have nothing to compare them with though, as the politics game is v new to me

    I am now off to Upton Park to watch a load of immigrants play football, 50% of whom will be Eastern European!
    I remember when I could've made jokes about football at Upton park, probably can't apply them this season.
  • antifrank said:

    There's a big difference between an MP assiduously cultivating his constituency in the run-up to an election and him thinking he's going to lose it.

    3/4 days a week, six months before the election? Looks like panic to me.

    Haven't read the link as it's old Guido, yuck, but if he's saying he is 3-4 days doing stuff with voters in the constituency, that's not unusual. 3 days is standard (Fri-Sun) and I don't get the impression that there's much government business these days.

    What Guido says is that “He spends just two days in the department and the rest of time clinging to his seat.”

    Not quite the same point as Nick is making.
  • You 'orrible lot have always been a fabulous source of recommendations for history books, so I wondered whether anyone had come across any decent tomes on the Thirty Years' War?

    It's a gap in my historical knowledge, one branch of the family comes from that way, and I'm curious about the - admittedly superficial - parallels that might be drawn with the escalating Sunni-Shia conflict in the Middle East.

    It also seems like it would be nearly as good a setting for a computer game as the Sengoku Jidai.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    john_zims said:

    @Anorak

    ' [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]'

    To be fair I rather like the uniforms for taxi driver's policy but don't know if Farage's plan to privatize the NHS is his own policy or UKIP's

    Is Farage going to up the ante on Eds Owl Policy - perhaps a Golden Eagle or Osprey for every voter?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Con GAIN Norfolk SW

    At all seven general elections 1945-1966 the majority was always less than 800 votes, and twice lower than 100. It changed hands 4 times, twice against the national tide.
  • john_zims said:

    @Anorak

    ' [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]'

    To be fair I rather like the uniforms for taxi driver's policy but don't know if Farage's plan to privatize the NHS is his own policy or UKIP's

    Is Farage going to up the ante on Eds Owl Policy - perhaps a Golden Eagle or Osprey for every voter?
    Now that politicians have started exploring policies based around birds of prey, it gives a whole new meaning to the old sign "No hawkers or canvassers".
  • isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    Primaries won't (or shouldn't) be a thing this late, need candidates in place by now.

    Most of the rest, quite probably.
    Doesn't seem to be working as yet does it?
    Not really.

    You have any read on what UKIP's local organisation is like (either general or seat specific), I suspect it'll be patchy and that'll hit UKIP's overall vote total if not necessarily its seat total.
    All I have seen is Clacton, but that is a one off which couldn't be replicated at a GE

    Thurrock is meant to be very good, probably the best they/we have

    I have nothing to compare them with though, as the politics game is v new to me

    I am now off to Upton Park to watch a load of immigrants play football, 50% of whom will be Eastern European!
    Come on you Hammers :)
  • Mr. Me, Theodore Dodge has a biography of Gustavus Adolphus (not sure if it's only available as an e-book or not).

    I've got the sample on my Kindle but have only read a little. I should stress that I really like his ancient biographies, and am far less taken with his work on Napoleon, so I'm not sure how it'll stack up.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
    Except thats not what he is saying. But a leading UKIP MEP did call another of her brown supporters a 'ting tong' and then had the nerve to say they were being selfish in complaining.
    Its your saddo problem if you want to associate with that kind of party.
    Right, so Flightpath also thinks I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP!

    The PB Tory racism is worse than we imagined!
    They'll be calling you a fake or a traitor next Sunil, like the white middle class kids who invaded the Ukip meeting in London in the summer did the BAME candidates
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014

    john_zims said:

    @Anorak

    ' [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]'

    To be fair I rather like the uniforms for taxi driver's policy but don't know if Farage's plan to privatize the NHS is his own policy or UKIP's

    Is Farage going to up the ante on Eds Owl Policy - perhaps a Golden Eagle or Osprey for every voter?
    Personally i think Cameron's gurus idea of abolishing maternity leave will be a vote winner (with child hating misogynists anyway). Charging car parking fees in Supermarket car parks was another good one. Abolishing job centres would seem to be a winner as well as does centrally controlled regional pay.

    Of course the idea that government should use cloud busting technology to make the weather better probably tops the lot!

    http://politicalscrapbook.net/stevehilton/
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited November 2014
    Ninoinoz said:

    Anorak said:

    This is despite supporting a party which campaigns entirely on the negative platform of how terrible the EU and various brown people are.

    So you're saying I'm too, er, "brown" to vote UKIP (like wot I did at the Euros back in May)?

    How racist of you!
    Except thats not what he is saying. But a leading UKIP MEP did call another of her brown supporters a 'ting tong' and then had the nerve to say they were being selfish in complaining.
    Its your saddo problem if you want to associate with that kind of party.
    Well, perhaps it would be better if they didn't name their restaurants Ting Tong, then?

    http://www.tingtongthai.co.uk/#!about/c1pyv
    You know it's actually a term used by Thais, means crazy/weird
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited November 2014

    You 'orrible lot have always been a fabulous source of recommendations for history books, so I wondered whether anyone had come across any decent tomes on the Thirty Years' War?

    It's a gap in my historical knowledge, one branch of the family comes from that way, and I'm curious about the - admittedly superficial - parallels that might be drawn with the escalating Sunni-Shia conflict in the Middle East.

    It also seems like it would be nearly as good a setting for a computer game as the Sengoku Jidai.

    Europe's Tragedy by Peter Wilson. Worth a read, but it;s not a particularly uplifting subject.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    You 'orrible lot have always been a fabulous source of recommendations for history books, so I wondered whether anyone had come across any decent tomes on the Thirty Years' War?

    It's a gap in my historical knowledge, one branch of the family comes from that way, and I'm curious about the - admittedly superficial - parallels that might be drawn with the escalating Sunni-Shia conflict in the Middle East.

    It also seems like it would be nearly as good a setting for a computer game as the Sengoku Jidai.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/0141006145?pc_redir=1414444631&robot_redir=1

    gets a very good write up, but takes a long holiday to get read!

    I think that the 30 years war gets neglected in the UK as it coincides with our own civil wars.
  • Unfortunate timing..

    20m David Cameron ✔ @David_Cameron
    #CometLanding marks a new chapter in the exploration of our Solar System. Congratulations to @ESA_Rosetta & UK figures who played a key role


    15m Krishnan Guru-Murthy ✔ @krishgm
    BREAKING : #c4news understands there's an issue with the Rosetta mission. scientists in crisis meeting
    Retweeted by James Chapman (Mail)
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @foxinsoxuk

    'Is Farage going to up the ante on Eds Owl Policy - perhaps a Golden Eagle or Osprey for every voter?'

    A Parrot?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    After reading about Farage's big mistake on this thread, I went over to Labour List to get the truth !

    "Nigel Farage has said he’d do a deal with Labour (who he compares to ‘the devil’ – surely confused because we’re pretty sure it wouldn’t be Labour playing the devil in this scenario) if ‘it got me what I wanted’." What he wants is a referendum.

    Seems entirely logical to me and in keeping with his party's aims.

    So there we have it. The Tories on here are so enraged, they invent misleading headlines. Are you really frothing at the mouth that much? Chill out, you look to be on course to be the biggest party, and you've got an idiot for an opposition leader. Stick to the facts, please.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Farage has made a huge strategic mistake with his Miliband comments. It won't affect R&S but it will hurt UKIP's chances of converting Tories at the GE.

    6 weeks of this coarse braggard on tv every night during the GE campaign ? What could go wrong ?
    Especially if he has had a good lunch.

    I suspect there are going to be some very unwise words during the election from some of their lower tier candidates. The press are going to lap them up - and enjoy Nigel having to tell us "that candidate does not represent the party" five times a day!
    So a repeat of the 2014 EU Parliament election campaign then?

    Way more candidates. Greater scope for meltdown.

    If the 2015 election campaign is all about UKIP, Con/Lab will have already given up.

    UKIP will be a story in 2015, for sure. Whether it is the story they want it to be is still very much up in the air....

    Lab might give up by then, with Ed at the helm. Us Tories? Like hell we will...

    'Everything but the kitchen sink'?
    Primaries? Smearing? Attack Ads? Push Polling?
    Primaries won't (or shouldn't) be a thing this late, need candidates in place by now.

    Most of the rest, quite probably.
    Doesn't seem to be working as yet does it?
    Not really.

    You have any read on what UKIP's local organisation is like (either general or seat specific), I suspect it'll be patchy and that'll hit UKIP's overall vote total if not necessarily its seat total.
    All I have seen is Clacton, but that is a one off which couldn't be replicated at a GE

    Thurrock is meant to be very good, probably the best they/we have

    I have nothing to compare them with though, as the politics game is v new to me

    I am now off to Upton Park to watch a load of immigrants play football, 50% of whom will be Eastern European!
    Come on you Hammers :)
    Argentina v Croatia
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    stodge said:

    No surprise to see the pro-Conservative blogger playing the usual game. In fact, the recent Tudor by-election wasn't too bad for the LDs and while losing control of the Borough in May was a blow, it's far from a lost cause.

    What comes before a lost cause? Desperate hope? Panicked retreat?

    This reminds me of Druss the Legend:

    "Dros Delnoch has six concentric walls and a keep. The first and strongest wall is sixty feet high and four hundred paces wide, with towers set every fifty paces. Wall One is called Eldibar, meaning 'Exultation', for it is where the enemy is initially repelled. Wall Two is called Musif, or 'Despair', because by now the defenders have seen the fall of Eldibar. Wall Three is Kania, or 'Renewed Hope'. Wall Four is Sumitos, or 'Desperation'. Wall Five is Valteri, or 'Serenity', because by now the defenders know that they will die, but they are determined to face the end with courage. Wall Six is Geddon, or 'Death'."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drenai_Series

  • john_zims said:

    @Anorak

    ' [yes I know UKIP has other policies, but no one knows them, and no one cares]'

    To be fair I rather like the uniforms for taxi driver's policy but don't know if Farage's plan to privatize the NHS is his own policy or UKIP's

    Is Farage going to up the ante on Eds Owl Policy - perhaps a Golden Eagle or Osprey for every voter?
    Red Kite or Harris Hawk or don't bother.
  • john_zims said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    'Is Farage going to up the ante on Eds Owl Policy - perhaps a Golden Eagle or Osprey for every voter?'

    A Parrot?

    Stealing the policies of the Pirate Party, eh?
This discussion has been closed.