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Why punters should take notice of Trump’s court cases – politicalbetting.com

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  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    Another irregular verb!

    When people use the identical phrase "from the river to the sea":
    I express legitimate concerns about security.
    You don't have any business talking about it at all.
    They are supporting genocidal terrorists.
    Not at all.

    The quote used by Palestinian supporters is an excerpt from a longer clause which explicitly refers to killing Jews.

    Nowhere does the Israeli government talk about or promote genocide. They are more indifferent to civilian casualties than we are in the west, and that is a mistake in my view, but it is not the same as genocide.

    In the specific quote above it is also clearly a geographic description related to “control”.

    I suppose you may not differentiate between “control” and the murder of innocents but I do.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited January 19
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
    Loans that are intended to be written off sound like a blatant IR35 evasion measure, so little sympathy there.

    Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
    Simple rule is if it looks like a PAYE job HMRC expect to see the PAYE payments but it's worth going through the history.

    I have little sympathy for those caught in schemes from about 2005 through to 2017 everyone entering a scheme was well paid and so buyer beware.

    From 2017 onwards a lot of lower paid people were dragged back inside IR35 (because HMRC changed the rules) at which point a lot of them were tricked into joining schemes to try and keep their previous take home pay. And I do mean tricked there is a whole set of tricks a dubious company can use to reduce what they pay in PAYE and no one in that segment of the market will know enough to spot the tricks.

    Heck there are 2 software companies that operate in the market of identifying such schemes via payslips and I doubt there are many more people with the expertise to identify scams quickly (I know most of the payroll providers couldn't).
    Yes, a lot of sympathy for people in jobs like care work, teaching assistants, private hire drivers etc, who often had no choice in the arrangements they were asked to follow. IR35 was never really intended to cover people like that, and it’s a legitimate question as to whether it’s worth setting the dogs on them years later. What’s a care worker on minimum wage supposed to do with an NI or tax demand for high four or even five figures?

    Little sympathy for the IT contractor on £800 a day and their numerous advisors and planners, trying to avoid the “£100k 65% Hell” or the 45% rate with loans, dividends and other schemes. They might not like the law, but it’s still the law. There are legitimate ways to incorporate and contract.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the
    taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    Why was he using one of these schemes in the first place? They were always dodgy.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    But the (appropriate in my view) criticism of the chant at protests is not Hamas’ wording but ‘from the river to the sea Palestinians will be free’. Which, if context matters, is both more peaceful and more desirable than one side ‘controlling’ the other.

    You can’t have it both ways. Either the phrase itself is inappropriate, or the chants at protests are okay.

    Netanyahu knows exactly what he is doing, just as left wingers who use the phrase do. You defending him does you no credit.

    ETA: @StillWaters I sent you a pm a few days ago - if you had time I’d be interested in your reply. No worries if not, though.
    Lots going on at the moment

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited January 19

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the
    taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    Why was he using one of these schemes in the first place? They were always dodgy.
    No ‘scheme’, simply a PAYE screwup from his former employer with child benefit withdrawal and company car BIK tax.
  • Well.

    A Tory donor caught up in the Post Office scandal was given a non-executive government role on the Board of the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

    Simon Blagden, who has donated £376,000 to the Conservatives, was non-executive chairman of Fujitsu, the IT company linked to what Rishi Sunak has called one of the greatest miscarriages of justice in British history, until 2019.

    He stepped down after 14 years in the post, during which time hundreds of postmasters had been wrongfully prosecuted for fraud, theft and false accounting as a result of faulty Fujitsu software.

    In April 2022, he accepted a non-executive role on the board of UKHSA – a newly formed quango tasked with monitoring infectious diseases.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/tory-donor-post-office-scandal-government-role-pamdemic/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Where England & Wales leads Scotland inevitably follows, the SNP should have taken up Gove's offer of a Britain wide ban.

    An SNP minister has insisted she is committed to a “deed and not breed” approach to dangerous dogs as she formally announced a ban on XL bullies in Scotland.

    Siobhian Brown, the community safety minister, told MSPs that the Scottish government did not believe in breed-specific legislation but would still replicate the breed-specific rules announced by Westminster in September.

    Brown, who claimed that the rules would be “safeguards” and not a “ban”, said the government would “develop guidance and practical support to allow owners to understand the legislation of what is required … using the standard developed by the UK government”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/american-xl-bully-dogs-ban-scotland-ministers-policy-fll8qqsvw

    lol. They are increasingly pitiful
  • These terrorists should be hunted down and experience some of the extrajudicial fear they deliver.

    An attack on a Ulez camera on top of a set of traffic lights led to a child being injured in a car accident, police have said.

    The Metropolitan Police urged “the people carrying out these crimes to stop immediately” following the attacks, including one in which a camera was blown up by an improvised explosive device.

    The collision happened at the junction of Old Priory Avenue and Court Road in Orpington, south-east London, shortly before 8.30am on Thursday.

    Hours earlier, five sets of traffic lights at the same location were cut down.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ulez-camera-attack-blamed-for-car-accident/
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    They're saying "Boo-urns".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Some interesting background on the Conservative win in the Hackney byelection:

    https://www.onlondon.co.uk/hackney-conservative-triumphs-after-turbulent-cazenove-by-election-contest/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Leon said:

    Where England & Wales leads Scotland inevitably follows, the SNP should have taken up Gove's offer of a Britain wide ban.

    An SNP minister has insisted she is committed to a “deed and not breed” approach to dangerous dogs as she formally announced a ban on XL bullies in Scotland.

    Siobhian Brown, the community safety minister, told MSPs that the Scottish government did not believe in breed-specific legislation but would still replicate the breed-specific rules announced by Westminster in September.

    Brown, who claimed that the rules would be “safeguards” and not a “ban”, said the government would “develop guidance and practical support to allow owners to understand the legislation of what is required … using the standard developed by the UK government”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/american-xl-bully-dogs-ban-scotland-ministers-policy-fll8qqsvw

    lol. They are increasingly pitiful
    It wasn’t difficult to predict exactly how this one would play out, but as ever the Scottish government’s desire to be different outweighs the practical issues on the ground.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the
    taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    Why was he using one of these schemes in the first place? They were always dodgy.
    No ‘scheme’, simply a PAYE screwup from his former employer with child benefit withdrawal and company car BIK tax.
    Sounds like a different case then! Sympathies to your brother
  • Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    With Russian forces stuck in a stalemate on the frontlines in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is facing a drain on the Kremlin coffers that threaten to sink his war machine.

    Russia’s oil and gas revenues have plummeted by 37pc in just one year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    A combination of falling prices and Western sanctions are driving Putin’s revenues steadily down even though he is pumping more oil, the report says.

    “Russian oil exports rose by 500,000 barrels a day (kb/d) in December… but estimated export revenues slumped to a six-month low of $14.4bn (£11.3bn), as Russian oil price discounts increased and benchmark oil prices declined,” the IEA concludes.

    “Putin’s revenues have gone down massively,” says Ashley Kelty, director of oil and gas research at Panmure Gordon.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/19/putins-petrodollars-dry-up-arab-russian-cartel-loses-grip/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Where England & Wales leads Scotland inevitably follows, the SNP should have taken up Gove's offer of a Britain wide ban.

    An SNP minister has insisted she is committed to a “deed and not breed” approach to dangerous dogs as she formally announced a ban on XL bullies in Scotland.

    Siobhian Brown, the community safety minister, told MSPs that the Scottish government did not believe in breed-specific legislation but would still replicate the breed-specific rules announced by Westminster in September.

    Brown, who claimed that the rules would be “safeguards” and not a “ban”, said the government would “develop guidance and practical support to allow owners to understand the legislation of what is required … using the standard developed by the UK government”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/american-xl-bully-dogs-ban-scotland-ministers-policy-fll8qqsvw

    lol. They are increasingly pitiful
    It wasn’t difficult to predict exactly how this one would play out, but as ever the Scottish government’s desire to be different outweighs the practical issues on the ground.
    I think the problem was that the Greens did not have a clear policy on this so the SNP didn't know what to do.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    edited January 19
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the
    taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    Why was he using one of these schemes in the first place? They were always dodgy.
    No ‘scheme’, simply a PAYE screwup from his former employer with child benefit withdrawal and company car BIK tax.
    Anyone subject to Child benefit withdrawal has to file a tax return, not rely on PAYE. Similar for BIK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    With Russian forces stuck in a stalemate on the frontlines in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is facing a drain on the Kremlin coffers that threaten to sink his war machine.

    Russia’s oil and gas revenues have plummeted by 37pc in just one year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    A combination of falling prices and Western sanctions are driving Putin’s revenues steadily down even though he is pumping more oil, the report says.

    “Russian oil exports rose by 500,000 barrels a day (kb/d) in December… but estimated export revenues slumped to a six-month low of $14.4bn (£11.3bn), as Russian oil price discounts increased and benchmark oil prices declined,” the IEA concludes.

    “Putin’s revenues have gone down massively,” says Ashley Kelty, director of oil and gas research at Panmure Gordon.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/19/putins-petrodollars-dry-up-arab-russian-cartel-loses-grip/

    Please get this right


  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
    Loans that are intended to be written off sound like a blatant IR35 evasion measure, so little sympathy there.

    Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
    Simple rule is if it looks like a PAYE job HMRC expect to see the PAYE payments but it's worth going through the history.

    I have little sympathy for those caught in schemes from about 2005 through to 2017 everyone entering a scheme was well paid and so buyer beware.

    From 2017 onwards a lot of lower paid people were dragged back inside IR35 (because HMRC changed the rules) at which point a lot of them were tricked into joining schemes to try and keep their previous take home pay. And I do mean tricked there is a whole set of tricks a dubious company can use to reduce what they pay in PAYE and no one in that segment of the market will know enough to spot the tricks.

    Heck there are 2 software companies that operate in the market of identifying such schemes via payslips and I doubt there are many more people with the expertise to identify scams quickly (I know most of the payroll providers couldn't).
    I would agree with this but the Loan Charge is primarily something that has affected white collar, predominantly IT, contractors. 65% according to HMRC figures.

    There are two issues. One is the loan charge where people willingly entered into these arrangements to avoid tax and I have no sympathy for them whatsoever.

    The other is, as you say, the lower paid workers forced into using brollies and the like by agencies. These are the real victims. Not highly paid IT contractors who used EBT's to dodge tax.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    Another irregular verb!

    When people use the identical phrase "from the river to the sea":
    I express legitimate concerns about security.
    You don't have any business talking about it at all.
    They are supporting genocidal terrorists.
    Not at all.

    The quote used by Palestinian supporters is an excerpt from a longer clause which explicitly refers to killing Jews.
    You mean they didn't say it but somebody else did, so you're going to put it into their mouths.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    edited January 19
    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    But the (appropriate in my view) criticism of the chant at protests is not Hamas’ wording but ‘from the river to the sea Palestinians will be free’. Which, if context matters, is both more peaceful and more desirable than one side ‘controlling’ the other.

    You can’t have it both ways. Either the phrase itself is inappropriate, or the chants at protests are okay.

    Netanyahu knows exactly what he is doing, just as left wingers who use the phrase do. You defending him does you no credit.

    ETA: @StillWaters I sent you a pm a few days ago - if you had time I’d be interested in your reply. No worries if not, though.
    I’m not defending Netanyahu by the way. He knows exactly what he is doing - it’s a “bus” argument designed to trigger his opponents. He’s just being an inflammatory tw*t as normal.

    Fundamentally the Palestinians use it in the context of dismantling the state of Israel. That is an antisemitic position as it denies the right of the Jewish people to self determination.

    Netanyahu was staring that Israel needs to control the security situation “from the river to the sea”. That’s not the same as denying the right to self determination (even though he doesn’t believe in a 2 state solution he doesn’t reference it here as it doesn’t follow - a more moderate politician might see this as a reasonable precondition for a 2 state solution).




  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    With Russian forces stuck in a stalemate on the frontlines in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is facing a drain on the Kremlin coffers that threaten to sink his war machine.

    Russia’s oil and gas revenues have plummeted by 37pc in just one year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    A combination of falling prices and Western sanctions are driving Putin’s revenues steadily down even though he is pumping more oil, the report says.

    “Russian oil exports rose by 500,000 barrels a day (kb/d) in December… but estimated export revenues slumped to a six-month low of $14.4bn (£11.3bn), as Russian oil price discounts increased and benchmark oil prices declined,” the IEA concludes.

    “Putin’s revenues have gone down massively,” says Ashley Kelty, director of oil and gas research at Panmure Gordon.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/19/putins-petrodollars-dry-up-arab-russian-cartel-loses-grip/

    Some of us have been saying for months, that the Western priority has to be reducing the oil price as far as possible, by any means necessary, to starve Putin of the resources required to fund the war. He’s selling O&G to India and China at a significant discount to market, which ideally would approach zero.

    A reduced oil price would of course also have useful political impacts on those Western governments up for election this year, Mr Sunak and Mr Biden among them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
    What does that look like? Mothballed production lines with trained staff on standby?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    edited January 19
    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    Yes, quite obviously an army that cannot take Kyiv, Kharkiv, or hold Kherson is not going to take Warsaw or Berlin, though the Baltics may be possible.

    It does look like the MBT has had its day, at least for the European theatre. This is increasingly a drone war grafted onto an artillery war like WW1.

    Implications for the navy too for drones. Both Houthi and Ukraine have had success with drones against maritime targets.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
    I did read recently that UK artillery shell production had been increased 8 fold, albeit from a truly pitiful base. What we have seen in Ukraine on both sides is the incredible speed at which ammunition and equipment is depleted. So many modern systems have phenomenal fire rates but there is a consequence for that.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    Another irregular verb!

    When people use the identical phrase "from the river to the sea":
    I express legitimate concerns about security.
    You don't have any business talking about it at all.
    They are supporting genocidal terrorists.
    Not at all.

    The quote used by Palestinian supporters is an excerpt from a longer clause which explicitly refers to killing Jews.
    You mean they didn't say it but somebody else did, so you're going to put it into their
    mouths.
    They are lifting a quote that clearly references something very unpleasant, without any qualifications.

    Netanyahu is trolling people like you.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677


    Not quite @Dura_Ace oppo fun, but several slides corrected on bends.

    The iX is a drift monster in SCHPORT PLUS mode in the snow. 80mph+ manjis.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
    Loans that are intended to be written off sound like a blatant IR35 evasion measure, so little sympathy there.

    Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
    Simple rule is if it looks like a PAYE job HMRC expect to see the PAYE payments but it's worth going through the history.

    I have little sympathy for those caught in schemes from about 2005 through to 2017 everyone entering a scheme was well paid and so buyer beware.

    From 2017 onwards a lot of lower paid people were dragged back inside IR35 (because HMRC changed the rules) at which point a lot of them were tricked into joining schemes to try and keep their previous take home pay. And I do mean tricked there is a whole set of tricks a dubious company can use to reduce what they pay in PAYE and no one in that segment of the market will know enough to spot the tricks.

    Heck there are 2 software companies that operate in the market of identifying such schemes via payslips and I doubt there are many more people with the expertise to identify scams quickly (I know most of the payroll providers couldn't).
    Yes, a lot of sympathy for people in jobs like care work, teaching assistants, private hire drivers etc, who often had no choice in the arrangements they were asked to follow. IR35 was never really intended to cover people like that, and it’s a legitimate question as to whether it’s worth setting the dogs on them years later. What’s a care worker on minimum wage supposed to do with an NI or tax demand for high four or even five figures?

    Little sympathy for the IT contractor on £800 a day and their numerous advisors and planners, trying to avoid the “£100k 65% Hell” or the 45% rate with loans, dividends and other schemes. They might not like the law, but it’s still the law. There are legitimate ways to incorporate and contract.
    Presumably you have seen this news?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/18/michelle-mone-husband-douglas-barrowman
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    With Russian forces stuck in a stalemate on the frontlines in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is facing a drain on the Kremlin coffers that threaten to sink his war machine.

    Russia’s oil and gas revenues have plummeted by 37pc in just one year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    A combination of falling prices and Western sanctions are driving Putin’s revenues steadily down even though he is pumping more oil, the report says.

    “Russian oil exports rose by 500,000 barrels a day (kb/d) in December… but estimated export revenues slumped to a six-month low of $14.4bn (£11.3bn), as Russian oil price discounts increased and benchmark oil prices declined,” the IEA concludes.

    “Putin’s revenues have gone down massively,” says Ashley Kelty, director of oil and gas research at Panmure Gordon.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/19/putins-petrodollars-dry-up-arab-russian-cartel-loses-grip/

    Some of us have been saying for months, that the Western priority has to be reducing the oil price as far as possible, by any means necessary, to starve Putin of the resources required to fund the war. He’s selling O&G to India and China at a significant discount to market, which ideally would approach zero.

    A reduced oil price would of course also have useful political impacts on those Western governments up for election this year, Mr Sunak and Mr Biden among them.
    Equally some PBers have been saying for nearly 2 years that Western sanctions would cripple the Russian economy within days.

    Eventually that may be the case but the aforesaid PBers are hardly the best to judge having been proved wrong consistently.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited January 19
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
    I did read recently that UK artillery shell production had been increased 8 fold, albeit from a truly pitiful base. What we have seen in Ukraine on both sides is the incredible speed at which ammunition and equipment is depleted. So many modern systems have phenomenal fire rates but there is a consequence for that.
    ...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    edited January 19
    Awks.



    Meanwhile in a complete turn up for the books, wee Dougie Ross is slavishly following the line punted by whichever here today, gone tomorrow pol leads the Tory party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    Judge hints that Trump’s election interference trial might be delayed
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/18/donald-trump-election-interference-january-6-trial-delay
    ..The US district judge Tanya Chutkan last summer scheduled the trial in Washington DC to start on 4 March – allowing Trump and his team seven months to prepare his defense – and has taken pains to ensure that date would not be delayed.

    But when Trump appealed her decision in December to reject his motion to toss the charges on grounds he could not be prosecuted for actions he took as president related to his duties, the case became automatically frozen while the US court of appeals for the DC circuit considered the matter.

    In her six-page order prohibiting the special counsel Jack Smith from filing motions pending the appeal, Chutkan affirmed that Trump would get the full seven-month period and that any time that elapsed between December and the end of the appeals process would not count against him.

    “Contrary to Defendant’s assertion, the court has not and will not set deadlines in this case based on the assumption that he has undertaken preparation when not required to do so,” the judge wrote.

    The line marked the first time that Chutkan has acknowledged that the March trial date may no longer be viable...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
    I did read recently that UK artillery shell production had been increased 8 fold, albeit from a truly pitiful base. What we have seen in Ukraine on both sides is the incredible speed at which ammunition and equipment is depleted. So many modern systems have phenomenal fire rates but there is a consequence for that.
    We had a similar crisis in 1915.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915

    Much harder to ramp up production now with our diminished manufacturing base and higher tech weapons.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    Yes, quite obviously an army that cannot take Kyiv, Kharkiv, or hold Kherson is not going to take Warsaw or Berlin, though the Baltics may be possible.

    It does look like the MBT has had its day, at least for the European theatre. This is increasingly a drone war grafted onto an artillery war like WW1.

    Implications for the navy too for drones. Both Houthi and Ukraine have had success with drones against maritime targets.
    Combined with these factors is the importance of having a fairly large army. On such a big potential front line Ukraine had enough to hold the Russians. Interesting that the Swedish defence forces have started worrying about their comparatively small forces.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    Well.

    A Tory donor caught up in the Post Office scandal was given a non-executive government role on the Board of the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

    Simon Blagden, who has donated £376,000 to the Conservatives, was non-executive chairman of Fujitsu, the IT company linked to what Rishi Sunak has called one of the greatest miscarriages of justice in British history, until 2019.

    He stepped down after 14 years in the post, during which time hundreds of postmasters had been wrongfully prosecuted for fraud, theft and false accounting as a result of faulty Fujitsu software.

    In April 2022, he accepted a non-executive role on the board of UKHSA – a newly formed quango tasked with monitoring infectious diseases.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/tory-donor-post-office-scandal-government-role-pamdemic/

    Aside from the PO scandal angle, this raises a few other questions:

    1. What are his qualifications for being on such a board?
    2. How is the Tories' 2010 manifesto pledge to 'cut the unaccountable quango state and root out waste' going?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,184

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    But the (appropriate in my view) criticism of the chant at protests is not Hamas’ wording but ‘from the river to the sea Palestinians will be free’. Which, if context matters, is both more peaceful and more desirable than one side ‘controlling’ the other.

    You can’t have it both ways. Either the phrase itself is inappropriate, or the chants at protests are okay.

    Netanyahu knows exactly what he is doing, just as left wingers who use the phrase do. You defending him does you no credit.

    ETA: @StillWaters I sent you a pm a few days ago - if you had time I’d be interested in your reply. No worries if not, though.
    I’m not defending Netanyahu by the way. He knows exactly what he is doing - it’s a “bus” argument designed to trigger his opponents. He’s just being an inflammatory tw*t as normal.

    Fundamentally the Palestinians use it in the context of dismantling the state of Israel. That is an antisemitic position as it denies the right of the Jewish people to self determination.

    Netanyahu was staring that Israel needs to control the security situation “from the river to the sea”. That’s not the same as denying the right to self determination (even though he doesn’t believe in a 2 state solution he doesn’t reference it here as it doesn’t follow - a more moderate politician might see this as a reasonable precondition for a 2 state solution).




    Agreed on your last paragraph, though flip that around and it could equally apply to the phrase used on the Palestinian side. The phrase only becomes worthy of criticism because of its (known) connotations. Thus anyone who uses it should be held to the same standard.

    It feels as though you (and not just you, many others on the Israeli side) are viewing things through a prism of already having decided that a Palestinian supporter must want the dismantling of the Israeli state, whereas you give the benefit of the doubt to an Israeli supporter that they may have more moderate motives.

    I am a Palestinian supporter, but I don’t want the dismantling of the Israeli state. Many others are like me (not all).

    I find it hard to understand how you can continue to focus on Hamas’ desire to deny the Jewish people the right to self-determination (and conflate this with an overall ‘Palestinian’ position) when Israel is so clearly denying this right to Palestinians in reality right now, indeed it is an open question whether they are engaging in genocide. What isn’t in question is that Israeli radicals, in Netanyahu’s government have called for genocide.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 779
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    The inquest into the largely forgotten murders of three men in a Reading park by a jihadist opened this week. It shines a light on a country that is unrecognisable, that prioritses the welfare of foreign extremists over its own citizens.


    https://x.com/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I thought there'd already been a court trial wrt to this case?
    There was. He pleaded guilty and is serving a whole life tariff. The question is why he was still in this country at the time of the attack. It seems multiple opportunities to deport him were missed.
    I thought you had to hold an inquest before a trial, but obviously not.
    No, inquests are often adjourned until after a criminal trial if an incident requires both. A prior inquest verdict that X had killed Y would prejudice a subsequent trial.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
    I did read recently that UK artillery shell production had been increased 8 fold, albeit from a truly pitiful base. What we have seen in Ukraine on both sides is the incredible speed at which ammunition and equipment is depleted. So many modern systems have phenomenal fire rates but there is a consequence for that.
    We had a similar crisis in 1915.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915

    Much harder to ramp up production now with our diminished manufacturing base and higher tech weapons.
    Actually, modern manufacturing techniques - massed CNC and 3D printing, for example, *can* make it much easier to convert existing production to other things.

    A chap I know runs a company that is, basically a warehouse with a grid of CNC machines. He can make anything in metal, pretty much. Give him the tool path, specs etc, and he could have a new design up and running in a day.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
    I did read recently that UK artillery shell production had been increased 8 fold, albeit from a truly pitiful base. What we have seen in Ukraine on both sides is the incredible speed at which ammunition and equipment is depleted. So many modern systems have phenomenal fire rates but there is a consequence for that.
    We had a similar crisis in 1915.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915

    Much harder to ramp up production now with our diminished manufacturing base and higher tech weapons.
    Thank goodness the UK has at least held on to strategic steel making.

    Oh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
    The other key factor is that they are pretty cheap and cheerful so you can easily have large numbers of them. One of our many failings in procurement is that each weapon system has been made so sophisticated and expensive we simply cannot afford a meaningful number of them. As @Foxy points out this means that we do not have an industrial base to create more and significant numbers as would be required by a real war. Hopefully drones will change this but what's the betting that the MOD drones prove vastly more expensive and only marginally better than those doing useful service in Ukraine today?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497
    Foxy said:

    Some interesting background on the Conservative win in the Hackney byelection:

    https://www.onlondon.co.uk/hackney-conservative-triumphs-after-turbulent-cazenove-by-election-contest/

    Daveygate cutting through and decimating the LDs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    edited January 19
    Nigelb said:

    Judge hints that Trump’s election interference trial might be delayed
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/18/donald-trump-election-interference-january-6-trial-delay
    ..The US district judge Tanya Chutkan last summer scheduled the trial in Washington DC to start on 4 March – allowing Trump and his team seven months to prepare his defense – and has taken pains to ensure that date would not be delayed.

    But when Trump appealed her decision in December to reject his motion to toss the charges on grounds he could not be prosecuted for actions he took as president related to his duties, the case became automatically frozen while the US court of appeals for the DC circuit considered the matter.

    In her six-page order prohibiting the special counsel Jack Smith from filing motions pending the appeal, Chutkan affirmed that Trump would get the full seven-month period and that any time that elapsed between December and the end of the appeals process would not count against him.

    “Contrary to Defendant’s assertion, the court has not and will not set deadlines in this case based on the assumption that he has undertaken preparation when not required to do so,” the judge wrote.

    The line marked the first time that Chutkan has acknowledged that the March trial date may no longer be viable...

    ...may no longer be viable? Surely no chance, on that basis.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497

    Awks.



    Meanwhile in a complete turn up for the books, wee Dougie Ross is slavishly following the line punted by whichever here today, gone tomorrow pol leads the Tory party.

    Didnt Braverman and Jenrick resign for the same reason? So the Bluekippers agree its not going to happen, but only they are allowed to mention it and the rest of us are supposed to pretend or keep schtum. Absolute nutters.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    But the (appropriate in my view) criticism of the chant at protests is not Hamas’ wording but ‘from the river to the sea Palestinians will be free’. Which, if context matters, is both more peaceful and more desirable than one side ‘controlling’ the other.

    You can’t have it both ways. Either the phrase itself is inappropriate, or the chants at protests are okay.

    Netanyahu knows exactly what he is doing, just as left wingers who use the phrase do. You defending him does you no credit.

    ETA: @StillWaters I sent you a pm a few days ago - if you had time I’d be interested in your reply. No worries if not, though.
    I’m not defending Netanyahu by the way. He knows exactly what he is doing - it’s a “bus” argument designed to trigger his opponents. He’s just being an inflammatory tw*t as normal.

    Fundamentally the Palestinians use it in the context of dismantling the state of Israel. That is an antisemitic position as it denies the right of the Jewish people to self determination.

    Netanyahu was staring that Israel needs to control the security situation “from the river to the sea”. That’s not the same as denying the right to self determination (even though he doesn’t believe in a 2 state solution he doesn’t reference it here as it doesn’t follow - a more moderate politician might see this as a reasonable precondition for a 2 state solution).
    Bibi was using the words to deny Palestinian statehood, which we know is his position. He is denying the right of the Palestinian people to self determination.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    DavidL said:



    The other key factor is that they are pretty cheap and cheerful

    They are $4m each! Hence lukewarm export performance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited January 19
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Yes Balloux has been a voice of sanity, relatively. He was quite skeptical about the later lockdowns IRRC, tho he always strains (overmuch to my taste, but then I like eating dogs) to be measured and “both sides-y”

    The fact even he is now saying the prior assumption must be lab leak is quite significant. I wonder if any of the zoonati on here, the “wet marketeers”, will ever fess up and say Yeah I probably got that wrong

    It would be nice. I don’t expect it

    For the higher elite who tried to silence the very idea of lab leak, it is much more ominous. If Trump wins I expect some will go to jail

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
    The other key factor is that they are pretty cheap and cheerful so you can easily have large numbers of them. One of our many failings in procurement is that each weapon system has been made so sophisticated and expensive we simply cannot afford a meaningful number of them. As @Foxy points out this means that we do not have an industrial base to create more and significant numbers as would be required by a real war. Hopefully drones will change this but what's the betting that the MOD drones prove vastly more expensive and only marginally better than those doing useful service in Ukraine today?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_Watchkeeper_WK450
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,297
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    Yes, quite obviously an army that cannot take Kyiv, Kharkiv, or hold Kherson is not going to take Warsaw or Berlin, though the Baltics may be possible.

    It does look like the MBT has had its day, at least for the European theatre. This is increasingly a drone war grafted onto an artillery war like WW1.

    Implications for the navy too for drones. Both Houthi and Ukraine have had success with drones against maritime targets.
    The Russian military was exposed as a paper tiger in 2022 - but is it still a paper tiger?
    And has the war in Ukraine not actually renewed its abilities, created new supply lines, new technology, new alliances with hostile countries etc under the guise of having a go at NATO - under the assumption that it will collapse completely when Trump gets back in?
    Given the level of support for Ukraine over the last year why have there been no advances? What is going to change the position? How do we increase support whilst also avoiding nuclear escalation?
    How long will Ukraine be able to remain a coherent whole and defend its territory if US funding is dropped? Has Ukraine developed its own industry to rearm itself indefinetly?
    Doesn't the removal of Crimea and the eastern territories undermine Russia's claim on the rest of Ukraine?
    I don't know what the answers are but I think these are the difficult questions.
    I would also suggest that the war with Russia is going to be a long one lasting decades and it won't be decisively won or lost in Ukraine.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
    The other key factor is that they are pretty cheap and cheerful so you can easily have large numbers of them. One of our many failings in procurement is that each weapon system has been made so sophisticated and expensive we simply cannot afford a meaningful number of them. As @Foxy points out this means that we do not have an industrial base to create more and significant numbers as would be required by a real war. Hopefully drones will change this but what's the betting that the MOD drones prove vastly more expensive and only marginally better than those doing useful service in Ukraine today?
    They were damned at the time as too expensive vs Russian exploding coffins (fuel tanks in the doors!)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    edited January 19

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
    Can't see anyone ever saying that about Ajax, though.

    And the T90 definitely wasn't knocking around Iraq in 1991.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
    The other key factor is that they are pretty cheap and cheerful so you can easily have large numbers of them. One of our many failings in procurement is that each weapon system has been made so sophisticated and expensive we simply cannot afford a meaningful number of them. As @Foxy points out this means that we do not have an industrial base to create more and significant numbers as would be required by a real war. Hopefully drones will change this but what's the betting that the MOD drones prove vastly more expensive and only marginally better than those doing useful service in Ukraine today?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_Watchkeeper_WK450
    The problems with the Flying Zionist Surveillance Cock was that the RA were operating it rather than any deficiencies of the system.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Yes Balloux has been a voice of sanity, relatively. He was quite skeptical about the later lockdowns IRRC, tho he always strains (overmuch to my taste, but then I like eating dogs) to be measured and “both sides-y”

    The fact even he is now saying the prior assumption must be lab leak is quite significant. I wonder if any of the zoonati on here, the “wet marketeers”, will ever fess up and say Yeah I probably got that wrong

    It would be nice. I don’t expect it

    For the higher elite who tried to silence the very idea of lab leak, it is much more ominous. If Trump wins I expect some will go to jail

    Does keeping an open mind while remaining sceptical of the Lab leak qualify you as a 'zoonati'?

    If so, happy to admit I probably got it wrong.

    I now think the balance of probabilities is that it was a lab leak. I think I used to be 80/20 towards natural emergence - I'm now 80/20 towards Lab leak.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
    Can't see anyone ever saying that about Ajax, though.

    And the T90 definitely wasn't knocking around Iraq in 1991.
    There aren’t too many T90s in Ukraine. Shed loads of warmed over T72s…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Yes Balloux has been a voice of sanity, relatively. He was quite skeptical about the later lockdowns IRRC, tho he always strains (overmuch to my taste, but then I like eating dogs) to be measured and “both sides-y”

    The fact even he is now saying the prior assumption must be lab leak is quite significant. I wonder if any of the zoonati on here, the “wet marketeers”, will ever fess up and say Yeah I probably got that wrong

    It would be nice. I don’t expect it

    For the higher elite who tried to silence the very idea of lab leak, it is much more ominous. If Trump wins I expect some will go to jail

    Does keeping an open mind while remaining sceptical of the Lab leak qualify you as a 'zoonati'?

    If so, happy to admit I probably got it wrong.

    I now think the balance of probabilities is that it was a lab leak. I think I used to be 80/20 towards natural emergence - I'm now 80/20 towards Lab leak.
    lol. I saw you’d replied to me and I was presuming jt was some mad defence of the wet market theory or
    something shamefully evasive - but no, you’ve confounded me - damn you - with an honest, lucid, simple response, admitting you probably got it wrong

    I can’t ask for more than that. Fair play and cheers
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.

    The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).

    There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited January 19

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.

    The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).

    There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
    Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol

    But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both

    Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    I mean at a glance this looks like losing Wyoming territory - not going to happen.
    Exactly.

    It is nonsense on stilts.

    It would be like the Tories winning Kensington or Labour winning Bolsover. Never going to happen?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,362

    These terrorists should be hunted down and experience some of the extrajudicial fear they deliver.

    An attack on a Ulez camera on top of a set of traffic lights led to a child being injured in a car accident, police have said.

    The Metropolitan Police urged “the people carrying out these crimes to stop immediately” following the attacks, including one in which a camera was blown up by an improvised explosive device.

    The collision happened at the junction of Old Priory Avenue and Court Road in Orpington, south-east London, shortly before 8.30am on Thursday.

    Hours earlier, five sets of traffic lights at the same location were cut down.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ulez-camera-attack-blamed-for-car-accident/

    We are in the curious position where a Muslim Mayor of London is facing down a bombing campaign from right-wing terrorists.

    Puts Just Stop Oil into perspective, doesn't it?
  • Eabhal said:

    These terrorists should be hunted down and experience some of the extrajudicial fear they deliver.

    An attack on a Ulez camera on top of a set of traffic lights led to a child being injured in a car accident, police have said.

    The Metropolitan Police urged “the people carrying out these crimes to stop immediately” following the attacks, including one in which a camera was blown up by an improvised explosive device.

    The collision happened at the junction of Old Priory Avenue and Court Road in Orpington, south-east London, shortly before 8.30am on Thursday.

    Hours earlier, five sets of traffic lights at the same location were cut down.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ulez-camera-attack-blamed-for-car-accident/

    We are in the curious position where a Muslim Mayor of London is facing down a bombing campaign from right-wing terrorists.

    Puts Just Stop Oil into perspective, doesn't it?
    It does.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



    The Russian army is currently being destroyed in Ukraine. It is burning its way through the very considerable reserves it had in storage of both MBTs and lighter armoured vehicles as well as artillery shells. At current rates they will be completely exhausted within 2 years.

    Russian conventional forces have been shown to be a paper tiger, poorly trained, very poorly equipped and poorly led. If they took on Poland they would get their arses kicked. Suggesting that they are somehow capable of taking on even the dilapidated forces of western Europe is a joke.

    We do need to increase defence spending but we need to do that in the main by supporting Ukraine. Although we need to recognise the way war has evolved through drone based warfare and update our forces to reflect that as well as massively increasing our ammunition reserves the suggestion that what is left of the Russian army is a threat to us is simply wrong.

    I of course agree that the distraction of this Rwanda/small boat nonsense is a very peculiar kind of stupid.
    One area that we need to invest in is ammunition production. The capability to produce "on the fly" has been almost eliminated for many weapons. A stockpile of x artillery shells is one thing. The capability to make y a week (or whatever) is another.

    Another is the childish "unique requirements" stuff that results in weird/impossible designs. The new SPG project has been held up by demanding requirements to make it airmobile, armoured like a tank, massive autoloader capacit etc etc.
    I did read recently that UK artillery shell production had been increased 8 fold, albeit from a truly pitiful base. What we have seen in Ukraine on both sides is the incredible speed at which ammunition and equipment is depleted. So many modern systems have phenomenal fire rates but there is a consequence for that.
    We had a similar crisis in 1915.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915

    Much harder to ramp up production now with our diminished manufacturing base and higher tech weapons.
    Similarly we had a shortage of manufacturing capacity for medical supplies during covid.

    It really wouldn't cost that much for the government to invest in increasing capacity in essential sectors which could be used in emergencies.

    Its a lot easier to go from 50%, or even 10%, production to 100% than to start at 0%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    I mean at a glance this looks like losing Wyoming territory - not going to happen.
    Exactly.

    It is nonsense on stilts.

    It would be like the Tories winning Kensington or Labour winning Bolsover. Never going to happen?
    More like Con Gain Bootle.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Ed Davey PO bounce

    Hampton North (Richmond upon Thames) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 53.2% (+19.9)
    CON: 34.8% (+11.2)
    LAB: 7.2% (-1.1)
    GRN: 4.8% (-16.2)

    Votes cast: 2,213

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    Leon said:

    Lab Leak is now all but confirmed. Does that matter?

    YES IT FUCKING MATTERS

    20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
    displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”

    And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
    China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”

    It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse

    To take a more fact based approach:
    "the US intelligence community has concluded that both the main theories—animal spillover at a wet market and laboratory leak—remain plausible, with a sense of resignation about ever finding a definitive answer."
    Or do you have more up to date and reliable evidence?

    https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1556
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640
    Over 4 by-elections reported, the Green vote was down in 3, with the average change for the Greens over all four being a 6.9% drop.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    One Ukranian Bradley IFV had fun yesterday, taking out three Russian IFVs and then turning its gun on a brand new T-90 tank, which ended up destroyed in the usual manner as the ammunition exploded inside the vehicle body.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12977603/Bradley-destroys-Russian-BMP2-T90-tank-Ukraine.html

    The Bradleys, which are of the previous generation and were programmed to be scrapped, have proved formidable. I have seen several videos of them taking out MBTs with vastly superior manoeuvrability and rapid fire power. Some of the videos when they come across Russian infantry out in the open are truly horrible. They may be the single most important western contribution to the Ukrainian war effort at present.
    The Bradleys (might even be the same actual vehicles) slaughtered their way through the Iraqi army in 1991. Which was armed with many of the same vehicles the Russians have been reduced to, now. So this is quite unsurprising. On one occasion, the American soldiers noticed that some "APCs" they were engaging were surviving several hits. In the morning (night action), they realised they'd been killing tanks - they were shooting at the turret rings with their light cannon and had actually hammered through.

    The Bradley is cautionary tale of how "reformers" can be wrong. The famous "Pentagon Wars" film was exactly wrong.
    Can't see anyone ever saying that about Ajax, though.

    Yes but I bet you said the same about Henderson signing for them
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    Lab Leak is now all but confirmed. Does that matter?

    YES IT FUCKING MATTERS

    20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
    displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”

    And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
    China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”

    It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse

    To take a more fact based approach:
    "the US intelligence community has concluded that both the main theories—animal spillover at a wet market and laboratory leak—remain plausible, with a sense of resignation about ever finding a definitive answer."
    Or do you have more up to date and reliable evidence?

    https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1556
    Read TwiX. Can’t be arsed to spoon feed PBers
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    ...

    Ed Davey PO bounce

    Hampton North (Richmond upon Thames) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 53.2% (+19.9)
    CON: 34.8% (+11.2)
    LAB: 7.2% (-1.1)
    GRN: 4.8% (-16.2)

    Votes cast: 2,213

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Predominantly at the expense of the Green Tories.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    I've commented this before, but my profession, background, and income should put me and most people I associate with as firm Conservative voters, despite us being in our 20s. I do not know a single one - even the come from wealth, free house from the family, university conservative types are at the very least Lib Dems, and this isn't some inbuilt feature, just four years ago a majority of them that I knew then were among the 20% of U25s that voted Conservative. Yesterday I even had a director on a healthy six figure salary bemoaning the cost of childcare and housing openly wishing for a GE! I'm not really sure where they go if they're getting thrashed among bankers, consultants, accountants, and lawyers.

    If they had any sense they'd combine student loan forgiveness (a 22 year old grad on 28k has the same marginal rate as a 50 year old on £125k, and a 23 year old with a masters on 28k has the same marginal rate as a magic circle Partner bringing in £1m+!) with pivoting to a Canadian Conservative position. However for as long as they don't I hope they get wiped out.
    Student debt and unaffordable housing have crippled the Conservatives among the young southern middle classes.

    Not that nimby LibDems are offering any improvement.

    The young people who have benefitted from this government are those who are northern working class, especially male, northern working class.

    Who have the best job opportunities in living memory and affordable housing as well.

    Its a complete reversal of what happened in the 1980s.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory win in Hackney, (not something you often read).

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17959/local-council-elections-18th-january?page=4

    "HACKNEY Cazenove

    SHARER, Ian (Conservative) 1,623
    PASCAL, Laura (Labour) 935
    MICNER, Tamara (Green) 387
    RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat) 73"

    More information:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Cazenove (Hackney) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.8% (+47.4)
    LAB: 31.0% (-13.1)
    GRN: 12.8% (+1.0)
    LDEM: 2.4% (-35.2)

    Votes cast: 3,018

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1748142763747483750

    Are you sure that's right?

    Reporting is that Sharer is a Lib Dem, and their group leader.

    And that local politics in the ward are quite poisonous.
    No, elected for 3 parties now. Lab then LD now Con.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Lab Leak is now all but confirmed. Does that matter?

    YES IT FUCKING MATTERS

    20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
    displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”

    And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
    China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”

    It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse

    To take a more fact based approach:
    "the US intelligence community has concluded that both the main theories—animal spillover at a wet market and laboratory leak—remain plausible, with a sense of resignation about ever finding a definitive answer."
    Or do you have more up to date and reliable evidence?

    https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1556
    Read TwiX. Can’t be arsed to spoon feed PBers
    I have bought 40 bars and still can't find the answer I didn't eat them with a spoon perhaps that's where I have gone wrong
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory win in Hackney, (not something you often read).

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17959/local-council-elections-18th-january?page=4

    "HACKNEY Cazenove

    SHARER, Ian (Conservative) 1,623
    PASCAL, Laura (Labour) 935
    MICNER, Tamara (Green) 387
    RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat) 73"

    More information:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Cazenove (Hackney) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.8% (+47.4)
    LAB: 31.0% (-13.1)
    GRN: 12.8% (+1.0)
    LDEM: 2.4% (-35.2)

    Votes cast: 3,018

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1748142763747483750

    Are you sure that's right?

    Reporting is that Sharer is a Lib Dem, and their group leader.

    And that local politics in the ward are quite poisonous.
    No, elected for 3 parties now. Lab then LD now Con.
    One for the "people get more right wing as they age" theory, then.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    Over 4 by-elections reported, the Green vote was down in 3, with the average change for the Greens over all four being a 6.9% drop.
    Can you calculate Lab now over the 4
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited January 19
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Lab Leak is now all but confirmed. Does that matter?

    YES IT FUCKING MATTERS

    20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
    displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”

    And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
    China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”

    It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse

    To take a more fact based approach:
    "the US intelligence community has concluded that both the main theories—animal spillover at a wet market and laboratory leak—remain plausible, with a sense of resignation about ever finding a definitive answer."
    Or do you have more up to date and reliable evidence?

    https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1556
    Read TwiX. Can’t be arsed to spoon feed PBers
    That would be the TwiX that was convinced Lord MacAlpine was a nonce?

    PS Can you provide us the What.3.Words location of the lab please ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,571
    edited January 19
    Good morning all.

    Ashfield comes to Hackney, I see.

    Lib Dem turns coat and switches to Tories, racist allegations, LTN haters, religious politics.

    With all those changes of party My Sharer could be called "Churchillian".

    A veteran local politician who has previously been both a Labour and a Liberal Democrat councillor in his home borough has won a clear victory for the Conservatives in Hackney’s Cazenove ward at Labour’s expense.

    Ian Sharer, who represented Cazenove as a Lib Dem from 2002 until Labour gained all three seats in 2018, received 1,623 votes, leaving Labour’s Laura Pascal in a distant second place with 935 after a campaign in which both hyper-local and international issues played a part.

    The Conservative appears to have thrived on a combination of a strong personal vote, perhaps especially among fellow Jewish Londoners who make-up almost a quarter of the ward’s population, and his opposition to Labour-run Hackney Council’s enthusiastic installation of Low Traffic Neighbourhood schemes, which have been strongly opposed by Jewish residents. Turnout was high for a by-election at 31.9 per cent.

    https://www.onlondon.co.uk/hackney-conservative-triumphs-after-turbulent-cazenove-by-election-contest/

    I wonder if Vincent Stops is involved ? :smile:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    Over 4 by-elections reported, the Green vote was down in 3, with the average change for the Greens over all four being a 6.9% drop.
    Can you calculate Lab now over the 4
    Down in 3 lost one seat to Tories?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    How do you think they will split, then ?
    GOP would be 80: 20 imho
    Though a party that loses 20% of its support is still completely rubber ducked.

    (Though even 40% retention for a convicted candidate is pretty alarming.)

    Even if 100% of Republicans would still vote for him, the split among Independents in that poll would give Trump no chance.
    If I recall correctly, a large majority of "independents" typically vote Republican. Democrat-leaning voters are more likely to identify as a Democrat, while GOP-leaning voters are quite likely to identify as Independent.

    So the independent split in that poll is even worse for Trump than it appears at first glance.
    Here's a poll from December showing not that big an effect from a Trump conviction:
    https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Poll_Dec_2023.pdf

    Q.29 More specifically, if the 2024 general election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?
    Definitely Trump 40
    Probably Trump 7
    Probably Biden 6
    Definitely Biden 37
    Undecided 10

    Q.62 (SPLIT A) If Donald Trump is convicted of a felony in either the classified documents or January 6th federal trials and the election for President were held, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
    Definitely Trump 38
    Probably Trump 7
    Probably Biden 4
    Definitely Biden 42
    Undecided 9

    Then they also have:
    Q.63 (SPLIT B) If Joe Biden is impeached by the House of Representatives due to his involvement with his son Hunter’s foreign influence peddling and the election for President were held, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
    Definitely Trump 41
    Probably Trump 5
    Probably Biden 8
    Definitely Biden 33
    Undecided 13

    Looking at total Trump vs total Biden it's
    Trump +4
    If Trump convicted: Biden +1
    If Biden impeached: Trump +5

    Depending on the circumstances, if Trump is really convicted it might have even less effect, if enough people think he is the victim.
    Yes, I'm always wary of polls that say "If X happened, how would you vote" as it almost prompts the voter to change the previous "neutral" response. In practice there are so mmany cross-currents in an election that the impact of each is diluted. A conviction that is in the process of appeal (seems quite a plsubile scenario) won't have much effect IMO.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Talking of AGI, Sam OpenAI Altman is claiming that GPT5 will be much smarter than 4

    Given that GPT4 - before it got nerfed - was a fairly vertigo-inducing glimpse into the AGI abyss, that is quite something. Of course Altman is hyping his own product and his own company

    But still. What if he is simply stating the case? Could be curtains for all professional writers, for a start. Thank god I knap flints



    “The GPT5 will be much smarter (than the previous model) and will provide more features,” said Altman, emphasising that “introduction features have been added, which is an important development in terms of general-purpose capabilities to handle tasks on behalf of users.” “As much as people loved the voice features of ChatGPT, much better audio will be provided,” he added.

    When asked by the moderator to pick some surprises on the chatGPT5, CEO Aultman replied, "If you have to pick one, your writing will be much better."

    He also compared the evolution of AI to the iPhone series. “If you hold the 2007 iPhone in one hand and the (latest) iPhone 15 in the other, you'll see two unbelievably different devices,” said Altman “and I think AI is the same.”

    [translation from Korean source]
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,659

    These terrorists should be hunted down and experience some of the extrajudicial fear they deliver.

    An attack on a Ulez camera on top of a set of traffic lights led to a child being injured in a car accident, police have said.

    The Metropolitan Police urged “the people carrying out these crimes to stop immediately” following the attacks, including one in which a camera was blown up by an improvised explosive device.

    The collision happened at the junction of Old Priory Avenue and Court Road in Orpington, south-east London, shortly before 8.30am on Thursday.

    Hours earlier, five sets of traffic lights at the same location were cut down.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ulez-camera-attack-blamed-for-car-accident/

    Tories like IDS who have spoken in support of these terrorists need to be expelled from the party. Or is Sunak too soft to act?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Lab Leak is now all but confirmed. Does that matter?

    YES IT FUCKING MATTERS

    20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
    displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”

    And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
    China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”

    It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse

    To take a more fact based approach:
    "the US intelligence community has concluded that both the main theories—animal spillover at a wet market and laboratory leak—remain plausible, with a sense of resignation about ever finding a definitive answer."
    Or do you have more up to date and reliable evidence?

    https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1556
    Read TwiX. Can’t be arsed to spoon feed PBers
    That would be the TwiX that was convinced Lord MacAlpine was a nonce?

    PS Can you provide us the What.3.Words location of the lab please ?
    Wait, I have it here. Lab.Leak.Bollocks.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640

    Over 4 by-elections reported, the Green vote was down in 3, with the average change for the Greens over all four being a 6.9% drop.
    Can you calculate Lab now over the 4
    Overall, about -2% average change for Labour.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.

    The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).

    There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
    Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol

    But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both

    Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
    I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.

    "There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    Nothing to see here, folks—just a Boeing 747 out of Miami catching fire today in mid-air.
    https://twitter.com/tedgioia/status/1748252407799202270

    More of a potential problem for GE than Boeing.
    The GEnx is a big earner for them, while the 747 is pretty well history.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,571
    Catching up on the Today Programme, the latest Hail Mary Pass is interesting.

    "Let's squeeze it through like it was 1992."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    ...

    Ed Davey PO bounce

    Hampton North (Richmond upon Thames) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 53.2% (+19.9)
    CON: 34.8% (+11.2)
    LAB: 7.2% (-1.1)
    GRN: 4.8% (-16.2)

    Votes cast: 2,213

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Predominantly at the expense of the Green Tories.
    A typo in the figures somewhere there, Shirley?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    The UK drops below S Korea in global military rankings.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=367228

    Other big upward movers are Turkey and Iran.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    Ashfield comes to Hackney, I see.

    Lib Dem turns coat and switches to Tories, racist allegations, LTN haters, religious politics.

    With all those changes of party My Sharer could be called "Churchillian".

    A veteran local politician who has previously been both a Labour and a Liberal Democrat councillor in his home borough has won a clear victory for the Conservatives in Hackney’s Cazenove ward at Labour’s expense.

    Ian Sharer, who represented Cazenove as a Lib Dem from 2002 until Labour gained all three seats in 2018, received 1,623 votes, leaving Labour’s Laura Pascal in a distant second place with 935 after a campaign in which both hyper-local and international issues played a part.

    The Conservative appears to have thrived on a combination of a strong personal vote, perhaps especially among fellow Jewish Londoners who make-up almost a quarter of the ward’s population, and his opposition to Labour-run Hackney Council’s enthusiastic installation of Low Traffic Neighbourhood schemes, which have been strongly opposed by Jewish residents. Turnout was high for a by-election at 31.9 per cent.

    https://www.onlondon.co.uk/hackney-conservative-triumphs-after-turbulent-cazenove-by-election-contest/

    I wonder if Vincent Stops is involved ? :smile:

    That’s quite the achievement, for one man to have stood and won for the three largest parties in the same seat.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,325

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    I've commented this before, but my profession, background, and income should put me and most people I associate with as firm Conservative voters, despite us being in our 20s. I do not know a single one - even the come from wealth, free house from the family, university conservative types are at the very least Lib Dems, and this isn't some inbuilt feature, just four years ago a majority of them that I knew then were among the 20% of U25s that voted Conservative. Yesterday I even had a director on a healthy six figure salary bemoaning the cost of childcare and housing openly wishing for a GE! I'm not really sure where they go if they're getting thrashed among bankers, consultants, accountants, and lawyers.

    If they had any sense they'd combine student loan forgiveness (a 22 year old grad on 28k has the same marginal rate as a 50 year old on £125k, and a 23 year old with a masters on 28k has the same marginal rate as a magic circle Partner bringing in £1m+!) with pivoting to a Canadian Conservative position. However for as long as they don't I hope they get wiped out.
    Student debt and unaffordable housing have crippled the Conservatives among the young southern middle classes.

    Not that nimby LibDems are offering any improvement.

    The young people who have benefitted from this government are those who are northern working class, especially male, northern working class.

    Who have the best job opportunities in living memory and affordable housing as well.

    Its a complete reversal of what happened in the 1980s.
    In a reasonably free market the existence of affordable housing (a fact unknown to anyone within the M25, or most outside it) would lead to the creation of many -massive numbers - more job opportunities of all types where that housing exists. This would normally be the effect or ordinary market forces, supply and demand.

    The extent to which this isn't happening is a bit odd.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited January 19

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Lab Leak is now all but confirmed. Does that matter?

    YES IT FUCKING MATTERS

    20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
    displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”

    And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
    China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”

    It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse

    To take a more fact based approach:
    "the US intelligence community has concluded that both the main theories—animal spillover at a wet market and laboratory leak—remain plausible, with a sense of resignation about ever finding a definitive answer."
    Or do you have more up to date and reliable evidence?

    https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1556
    Read TwiX. Can’t be arsed to spoon feed PBers
    That would be the TwiX that was convinced Lord MacAlpine was a nonce?

    PS Can you provide us the What.3.Words location of the lab please ?
    Sure

    Here you go

    ///says.bind.loved

    That’s the location of the Wuhan CDC, with its reservoir of bats used for gain of function virology research, in late 2019. It was BSL2 (ie: unsafe). It’s about 300 yards from the market

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    Ashfield comes to Hackney, I see.

    Lib Dem turns coat and switches to Tories, racist allegations, LTN haters, religious politics.

    With all those changes of party My Sharer could be called "Churchillian".

    A veteran local politician who has previously been both a Labour and a Liberal Democrat councillor in his home borough has won a clear victory for the Conservatives in Hackney’s Cazenove ward at Labour’s expense.

    Ian Sharer, who represented Cazenove as a Lib Dem from 2002 until Labour gained all three seats in 2018, received 1,623 votes, leaving Labour’s Laura Pascal in a distant second place with 935 after a campaign in which both hyper-local and international issues played a part.

    The Conservative appears to have thrived on a combination of a strong personal vote, perhaps especially among fellow Jewish Londoners who make-up almost a quarter of the ward’s population, and his opposition to Labour-run Hackney Council’s enthusiastic installation of Low Traffic Neighbourhood schemes, which have been strongly opposed by Jewish residents. Turnout was high for a by-election at 31.9 per cent.

    https://www.onlondon.co.uk/hackney-conservative-triumphs-after-turbulent-cazenove-by-election-contest/

    I wonder if Vincent Stops is involved ? :smile:

    That’s quite the achievement, for one man to have stood and won for the three largest parties in the same seat.
    This is a local vote for local people...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    algarkirk said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    I've commented this before, but my profession, background, and income should put me and most people I associate with as firm Conservative voters, despite us being in our 20s. I do not know a single one - even the come from wealth, free house from the family, university conservative types are at the very least Lib Dems, and this isn't some inbuilt feature, just four years ago a majority of them that I knew then were among the 20% of U25s that voted Conservative. Yesterday I even had a director on a healthy six figure salary bemoaning the cost of childcare and housing openly wishing for a GE! I'm not really sure where they go if they're getting thrashed among bankers, consultants, accountants, and lawyers.

    If they had any sense they'd combine student loan forgiveness (a 22 year old grad on 28k has the same marginal rate as a 50 year old on £125k, and a 23 year old with a masters on 28k has the same marginal rate as a magic circle Partner bringing in £1m+!) with pivoting to a Canadian Conservative position. However for as long as they don't I hope they get wiped out.
    Student debt and unaffordable housing have crippled the Conservatives among the young southern middle classes.

    Not that nimby LibDems are offering any improvement.

    The young people who have benefitted from this government are those who are northern working class, especially male, northern working class.

    Who have the best job opportunities in living memory and affordable housing as well.

    Its a complete reversal of what happened in the 1980s.
    In a reasonably free market the existence of affordable housing (a fact unknown to anyone within the M25, or most outside it) would lead to the creation of many -massive numbers - more job opportunities of all types where that housing exists. This would normally be the effect or ordinary market forces, supply and demand.

    The extent to which this isn't happening is a bit odd.
    While availability of housing is one factor, price is pretty much a free market.

    It isn't really a surprise that the best economic prospects are where the highest house prices are, and low house prices where economic and social conditions are not so good.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.

    The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).

    There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
    Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol

    But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both

    Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
    I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.

    "There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
    To be fair there aren’t many left fighting against the lab leak theory. It is now mainly those implicated in the actual scandal and the even worse cover up, everyone else has quietly melted away

    The last fighters and their frankly weird comrades remind of the Japanese soldiers still doing bayonet thrusts in Javan jungles in about 1976
  • https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/archive/

    19th January 2024

    Lab: 43% (-1)
    Con: 25% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Reform: 9% (-1)
    Green: 6% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)
    Others: 3% (=)

    Comparison with 12th January 2024
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    There are gay people in my hotel pool
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    edited January 19
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
    Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.

    The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
    Yes Balloux has been a voice of sanity, relatively. He was quite skeptical about the later lockdowns IRRC, tho he always strains (overmuch to my taste, but then I like eating dogs) to be measured and “both sides-y”

    The fact even he is now saying the prior assumption must be lab leak is quite significant. I wonder if any of the zoonati on here, the “wet marketeers”, will ever fess up and say Yeah I probably got that wrong

    It would be nice. I don’t expect it

    For the higher elite who tried to silence the very idea of lab leak, it is much more ominous. If Trump wins I expect some will go to jail

    Does keeping an open mind while remaining sceptical of the Lab leak qualify you as a 'zoonati'?

    If so, happy to admit I probably got it wrong.

    I now think the balance of probabilities is that it was a lab leak. I think I used to be 80/20 towards natural emergence - I'm now 80/20 towards Lab leak.
    lol. I saw you’d replied to me and I was presuming jt was some mad defence of the wet market theory or
    something shamefully evasive - but no, you’ve confounded me - damn you - with an honest, lucid, simple response, admitting you probably got it wrong

    I can’t ask for more than that. Fair play and cheers
    As you know, sometimes admitting you probably got it wrong can be cathartic.

    Anyway, it was a beautiful, if chilly (-6°C), dawn here today. Sun is now up and we're going to go out for a nice long walk with the dog to catch up on some vitamin D.

    image
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