Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Why punters should take notice of Trump’s court cases – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,010
edited January 22 in General
imageWhy punters should take notice of Trump’s court cases – politicalbetting.com

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,805
    Large Don't Know count on these, however.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    i just dont believe that 28% for GOP voters.

    not in november, when it is biden or trump on the ballot paper in front of them. even if he is in a cell.

    they will vote for him.


  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,749
    edited January 18
    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as its Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    Reform into 14/1 for Wellingborough
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492

    Reform into 14/1 for Wellingborough

    Silly numbers.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411

    i just dont believe that 28% for GOP voters.

    not in november, when it is biden or trump on the ballot paper in front of them. even if he is in a cell.

    they will vote for him.

    All of them ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    edited January 18
    nico679 said:

    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as it's of Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .

    All of them ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904
    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, I believe the 2024 US Presidential election will be decided in court whatever the current primary and caucus results show.

    If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.

    Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings

    How does Trump being convicted give Haley the nomination?

  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,749
    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as it's of Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .

    All of them ?
    Yes they will find a way to justify continued support for Trump . We’re not dealing with normal sane people here. The US is fast turning into a failed state . We just need to accept this sad reality .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904
    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    I mean at a glance this looks like losing Wyoming territory - not going to happen.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Good job Netanyahu didn't use the phrase in the UK, he'd be up before the court on an anti-semitic hate crime charge.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    How do you think they will split, then ?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    How do you think they will split, then ?
    GOP would be 80: 20 imho
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as it's of Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .

    All of them ?
    Yes they will find a way to justify continued support for Trump . We’re not dealing with normal sane people here. The US is fast turning into a failed state . We just need to accept this sad reality .
    You don't think it would make any difference, despite evidence that it will ?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    I mean at a glance this looks like losing Wyoming territory - not going to happen.
    Exactly.

    It is nonsense on stilts.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Lawyer's lawyer needs lawyer.

    Lawyer for Sidney Powell faces disciplinary charges over 2020 election case
    https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/lawyer-sidney-powell-faces-disciplinary-charges-over-2020-election-case-2024-01-18/
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904
    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as it's of Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .

    All of them ?
    Yes they will find a way to justify continued support for Trump . We’re not dealing with normal sane people here. The US is fast turning into a failed state . We just need to accept this sad reality .
    You don't think it would make any difference, despite evidence that it will ?
    If Trump is convicted of a felony then we can see how he polls at that point. It probably makes Biden a decent favourite again but that's a long way from the 538 - 0 landslide this polling suggests.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,381

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    How do you think they will split, then ?
    GOP would be 80: 20 imho
    Though a party that loses 20% of its support is still completely rubber ducked.

    (Though even 40% retention for a convicted candidate is pretty alarming.)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as it's of Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .

    All of them ?
    Yes they will find a way to justify continued support for Trump . We’re not dealing with normal sane people here. The US is fast turning into a failed state . We just need to accept this sad reality .
    You don't think it would make any difference, despite evidence that it will ?
    If Trump is convicted of a felony then we can see how he polls at that point. It probably makes Biden a decent favourite again but that's a long way from the 538 - 0 landslide this polling suggests.
    I wasn’t arguing the polling is predictive.
    But I so think it captures an effect that will shift votes. You seemed to be arguing otherwise.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    I'm guessing various fat cats and major corporates who sell goods digitally will not be falling into this situation.

    "We are just the little, skint people" as Alan Bates said.

    Maybe that should be Labour's slogan??
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,912
    Nigelb said:

    i just dont believe that 28% for GOP voters.

    not in november, when it is biden or trump on the ballot paper in front of them. even if he is in a cell.

    they will vote for him.

    All of them ?
    Clearly some won’t if he convicted. Several PBers have a ludicrous black or white attitude to this, where Trump is concerned.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167

    David Gauke
    @DavidGauke
    ·
    7h
    Right wing Tories endorsing Donald Trump is going to be something of a feature of 2024. Revealing and electorally unhelpful.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    I'm guessing various fat cats and major corporates who sell goods digitally will not be falling into this situation.

    "We are just the little, skint people" as Alan Bates said.

    Maybe that should be Labour's slogan??
    This was also one of the main items on Newsnight tonight.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    I did say the other night that 30% of the GOP voters dont like him. The above polling reflects that and is a potential fig leaf to cover the actual act of not voting for him.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167

    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    28m
    Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    ---

    But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.

    When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.

    This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.

    But defence.

    And Russia.



  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,148
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, I believe the 2024 US Presidential election will be decided in court whatever the current primary and caucus results show.

    If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.

    Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings

    This line of thinking makes generic Dems (or Biden if you think he's definitely running) a good value WH24 bet at current prices.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,097
    Right wing Tory MPs are very precious.

    Lee Anderson was all set to vote in the no lobby last night when Labour MPs started "sniggling" at him. He later explained he was very upset at Labour MPs "sniggling " at him which is why he instead abstained.

    Don't "sniggle" at Lee.

    https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1747998945022808496
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as it's of Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .

    All of them ?
    Yes they will find a way to justify continued support for Trump . We’re not dealing with normal sane people here. The US is fast turning into a failed state . We just need to accept this sad reality .
    The failed state that Europe consistently needs the military cover of when it cant sort its shit out when it comes to its own backyard.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,912

    Right wing Tory MPs are very precious.

    Lee Anderson was all set to vote in the no lobby last night when Labour MPs started "sniggling" at him. He later explained he was very upset at Labour MPs "sniggling " at him which is why he instead abstained.

    Don't "sniggle" at Lee.

    https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1747998945022808496

    What a snowflake. Being bullied by those nasty wasty big boys in the PLP.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,231

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    How do you think they will split, then ?
    GOP would be 80: 20 imho
    Though a party that loses 20% of its support is still completely rubber ducked.

    (Though even 40% retention for a convicted candidate is pretty alarming.)

    Even if 100% of Republicans would still vote for him, the split among Independents in that poll would give Trump no chance.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Oh great another thread about Trump !

    Jeez enough already .

    PS seeing as it's of Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .

    All of them ?
    Yes they will find a way to justify continued support for Trump . We’re not dealing with normal sane people here. The US is fast turning into a failed state . We just need to accept this sad reality .
    Monstrous hyperbole.

    Some have a religious attachment to Trump. But faced with a rapist fraudster in an orange jumpsuit facing the rest of his natural life behind bars for trying to butt-fuck democracy, enough scales will fall from eyes.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,902
    The inquest into the largely forgotten murders of three men in a Reading park by a jihadist opened this week. It shines a light on a country that is unrecognisable, that prioritses the welfare of foreign extremists over its own citizens.


    https://x.com/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963
    edited January 18

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, I believe the 2024 US Presidential election will be decided in court whatever the current primary and caucus results show.

    If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.

    Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings

    How does Trump being convicted give Haley the nomination?

    More likely DeSantis (given current Trump voters are more likely to go to him than Haley and DeSantis would then get Haley delegates too at the convention). On the UK Conservative equivalent Trump would be Boris, DeSantis Sunak and Haley Mordaunt.

    Only 43% of Republicans saying they would vote for a convicted Trump means he could well still lose the nomination if he is convicted of criminal offences, albeit still have enough support to go Independent which he would
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042
    US drone shot down by Iranian militias.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1748121878017777697
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,124
    The actual effect of this on people's vote will, to a certain extent, depend on timing. We don't know how many votes were swung in the 2016 election by the news on October 28th that the FBI were reopening the investigation into Clinton's emails, but the timing, just 11 days before polling day, was almost perfect for it to have maximum impact.

    If, by contrast, Trump is convicted months earlier, say in early August, shortly after Trump is formally nominated at the convention, then the impact by the time election day arrives, will be much reduced. People will have seen that Trump could be convicted, but the election campaign would continue, and the idea of a convicted felon still winning election would be normalised by the continual discussion of the possibility, while other issues, such as inflation, or whether Biden's embalming would preserve him for a full second term, would be much more prominent.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    isam said:

    The inquest into the largely forgotten murders of three men in a Reading park by a jihadist opened this week. It shines a light on a country that is unrecognisable, that prioritses the welfare of foreign extremists over its own citizens.


    https://x.com/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I thought there'd already been a court trial wrt to this case?
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,178
    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    I had a read through the HMRC page, and the only bit which sounded unfair was:

    “If an employer set up a scheme then the tax liabilities will fall to them and not the employee. HMRC will only seek payment from the employee if it cannot be collected from the employer, for example where the employer no longer exists or is off-shore. In these circumstances HMRC would collect the liabilities owed from the employee, who benefited from the scheme.”

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge-an-overview/tax-avoidance-loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge

    Generally it looks like people knew what they were doing, and have been given half a decade to get their affairs in order.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Rival parties roll out strategies to address Korea's low birthrate
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=367192

    Note that U.S. birthrate is (though nowhere near as catastrophic as Korea) well below replacement.

    I predict attitudes towards immigration will do another about turn over the next decade.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966

    Snowmageddon update! Roads were fine to Ellon from the airport, then progressively shittier the further north I went. Last 5 miles into my village (and it’s an A road) were bloody awful, especially as the snow started drifting off the fields.

    Not quite @Dura_Ace oppo fun, but several slides corrected on bends. And then the added fun of having to dig a parking space when I got back. A combination of ploughing the road and the pavements meant two compacted snow walls which needed removing so that I could then beach the thing into over the top of my boots deep snow.

    Break dry January with a large dram. Think it is deserved… 😳

    Glad you got home safely, @RochdalePioneers!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, I believe the 2024 US Presidential election will be decided in court whatever the current primary and caucus results show.

    If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.

    Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings

    How does Trump being convicted give Haley the nomination?

    More likely DeSantis (given current Trump voters are more likely to go to him than Haley and DeSantis would then get Haley delegates too at the convention). On the UK Conservative equivalent Trump would be Boris, DeSantis Sunak and Haley Mordaunt.

    Only 43% of Republicans saying they would vote for a convicted Trump means he could well still lose the nomination if he is convicted of criminal offences, albeit still have enough support to go Independent which he would
    I just dont believe that poll is what will actually happen if he is convicted.

    Frankly, the state of GOP voters - he might get a higher % if he is in a jumps suit because he's being persecuted by the commie, woke, mexican-loving, lefty george town lawyers who have never eaten grits in Joe's Tennessee Diner etc etc etc...
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    I had a read through the HMRC page, and the only bit which sounded unfair was:

    “If an employer set up a scheme then the tax liabilities will fall to them and not the employee. HMRC will only seek payment from the employee if it cannot be collected from the employer, for example where the employer no longer exists or is off-shore. In these circumstances HMRC would collect the liabilities owed from the employee, who benefited from the scheme.”

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge-an-overview/tax-avoidance-loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge

    Generally it looks like people knew what they were doing, and have been given half a decade to get their affairs in order.
    Newsnight have a report on it.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    edited January 18

    The actual effect of this on people's vote will, to a certain extent, depend on timing. We don't know how many votes were swung in the 2016 election by the news on October 28th that the FBI were reopening the investigation into Clinton's emails, but the timing, just 11 days before polling day, was almost perfect for it to have maximum impact.

    If, by contrast, Trump is convicted months earlier, say in early August, shortly after Trump is formally nominated at the convention, then the impact by the time election day arrives, will be much reduced. People will have seen that Trump could be convicted, but the election campaign would continue, and the idea of a convicted felon still winning election would be normalised by the continual discussion of the possibility, while other issues, such as inflation, or whether Biden's embalming would preserve him for a full second term, would be much more prominent.

    Actually this is an election where turnout is the biggie, last time compartively big turnout but Trump was beat no matter because the hostility and enthusiasm to get him out was just always going to be too big. This time neither prospective candidate has massive enthusiasm. This is the thing that makes the Dems predicament all the more peculiar. Hostility against Trump is still high, Trumps influence doesnt show results for the GOP in general and on abortion, a real touchstone issue, the Dems could run riot in motivating voters but Biden is considered stale.
  • Options
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    How do you think they will split, then ?
    GOP would be 80: 20 imho
    Though a party that loses 20% of its support is still completely rubber ducked.

    (Though even 40% retention for a convicted candidate is pretty alarming.)

    Even if 100% of Republicans would still vote for him, the split among Independents in that poll would give Trump no chance.
    If I recall correctly, a large majority of "independents" typically vote Republican. Democrat-leaning voters are more likely to identify as a Democrat, while GOP-leaning voters are quite likely to identify as Independent.

    So the independent split in that poll is even worse for Trump than it appears at first glance.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,650
    isam said:

    The inquest into the largely forgotten murders of three men in a Reading park by a jihadist opened this week. It shines a light on a country that is unrecognisable, that prioritses the welfare of foreign extremists over its own citizens.


    https://x.com/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    non-Muskwall link: https://nitter.net/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324#m
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042

    Nigel Farage speaks for 4 minutes on is the Conservative Party in terminal decline
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ffqm-ICdgk

    The final part of that piece:

    "I wonder whether there is any point to the Conservative Party, and I say that because they'll always argue, amongst divisions, that "we're a broad church" but even a broad church needs a religion of some kind to believe in. I'm not sure they've actually got this anymore. I think they're not fit for purpose. I think they're on the way out."
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited January 19
    Hampton North Lib Dem gain from Con
    LD 1177
    Con 771
    Lab 159
    Grn 106
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,489
    Off topic, but important:

    According to NHK World, Japan just bought 400 Tomahawk missiles from the US. They probably meant “ordered”, rather than “bought”, but it is still a significant sale.

    Especially when you combine that with the fact that Japan could make nuclear bombs within less than a year, perhaps within less than six months. (They have a fairly large stock of plutonium.)

    “King” Kim, “Czar” Putin, and “Emperor” Xi are edging us closer to nuclear war. I hope I am wrong in that dismal conclusion.

    (Cross posted at Patterico's.)
  • Options
    prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 441
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    The inquest into the largely forgotten murders of three men in a Reading park by a jihadist opened this week. It shines a light on a country that is unrecognisable, that prioritses the welfare of foreign extremists over its own citizens.


    https://x.com/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I thought there'd already been a court trial wrt to this case?
    There was. He pleaded guilty and is serving a whole life tariff. The question is why he was still in this country at the time of the attack. It seems multiple opportunities to deport him were missed.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    I've commented this before, but my profession, background, and income should put me and most people I associate with as firm Conservative voters, despite us being in our 20s. I do not know a single one - even the come from wealth, free house from the family, university conservative types are at the very least Lib Dems, and this isn't some inbuilt feature, just four years ago a majority of them that I knew then were among the 20% of U25s that voted Conservative. Yesterday I even had a director on a healthy six figure salary bemoaning the cost of childcare and housing openly wishing for a GE! I'm not really sure where they go if they're getting thrashed among bankers, consultants, accountants, and lawyers.

    If they had any sense they'd combine student loan forgiveness (a 22 year old grad on 28k has the same marginal rate as a 50 year old on £125k, and a 23 year old with a masters on 28k has the same marginal rate as a magic circle Partner bringing in £1m+!) with pivoting to a Canadian Conservative position. However for as long as they don't I hope they get wiped out.
    All the well-off people I know are anti-Conservatives these days. A big change from a few years ago. But I imagine if you go to Bassetlaw or Ashfield you'd find a few young Tories.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited January 19
    Barnesian said:

    Hampton North Lib Dem gain from Con
    LD 1177
    Con 771
    Lab 159
    Grn 106

    Teddington Lib Dem hold
    LD 1716
    Con 561
    Lab 163
    Grn 184
    Ind 46

    So Richmond on Thames is now a Tory and Labour freezone!
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,411


    David Gauke
    @DavidGauke
    ·
    7h
    Right wing Tories endorsing Donald Trump is going to be something of a feature of 2024. Revealing and electorally unhelpful.

    My interpretation of that is perhaps he was looking for an excuse and could not find a good one.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    I've commented this before, but my profession, background, and income should put me and most people I associate with as firm Conservative voters, despite us being in our 20s. I do not know a single one - even the come from wealth, free house from the family, university conservative types are at the very least Lib Dems, and this isn't some inbuilt feature, just four years ago a majority of them that I knew then were among the 20% of U25s that voted Conservative. Yesterday I even had a director on a healthy six figure salary bemoaning the cost of childcare and housing openly wishing for a GE! I'm not really sure where they go if they're getting thrashed among bankers, consultants, accountants, and lawyers.

    If they had any sense they'd combine student loan forgiveness (a 22 year old grad on 28k has the same marginal rate as a 50 year old on £125k, and a 23 year old with a masters on 28k has the same marginal rate as a magic circle Partner bringing in £1m+!) with pivoting to a Canadian Conservative position. However for as long as they don't I hope they get wiped out.
    All the well-off people I know are anti-Conservatives these days. A big change from a few years ago. But I imagine if you go to Bassetlaw or Ashfield you'd find a few young Tories.
    Yeah I imagine so, not sure it's a viable party & candidate base though. Its just remarkable that for the generation 5 years younger than me the 'never kissed a Tory' t-shirts are more a statement of statistical probability rather than a political statement!
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,489
    edited January 19
    Here's the Wikipedia article on South Korea's demographics:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea

    "Analysts have attributed South Korea's population decline resulting from low birth rates to the country's high economic inequality; including the high cost of living, low wages for an OECD member country, lack of job opportunities, as well as rising housing costs.[10] Many South Koreans have termed their country "Hell Joseon"[a] as a result, and the last two generations has considered themselves "Sampo"[b] and "N-po"[c] respectively.[11][12] South Korea also has the highest suicide rate in the OECD and the wider developed world."

    (When last I checked, East Asians in the US (Chinese, Japanese, Koreans) had a total fertility rate close to that of whites. And, of course, South Koreans have been, for years, one of the largest groups of "birth tourists", here.)
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    "One of Japan’s most prestigious literary prizes was awarded to a novel written with the help of artificial intelligence.

    During a ceremony Wednesday awarding the Akutagawa Prize to author Rie Kudan, the writer revealed that “about five percent” of her novel was composed using the AI chatbot program ChatGPT.

    Kudan’s novel “The Tokyo Tower of Sympathy,” praised by judges as “flawless,” takes place in a futuristic Tokyo with AI as a recurring theme, according to the Agence France-Presse."

    https://nypost.com/2024/01/18/news/rie-kudan-used-ai-to-help-write-the-tokyo-tower-of-sympathy/
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    The inquest into the largely forgotten murders of three men in a Reading park by a jihadist opened this week. It shines a light on a country that is unrecognisable, that prioritses the welfare of foreign extremists over its own citizens.


    https://x.com/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I thought there'd already been a court trial wrt to this case?
    There was. He pleaded guilty and is serving a whole life tariff. The question is why he was still in this country at the time of the attack. It seems multiple opportunities to deport him were missed.
    I thought you had to hold an inquest before a trial, but obviously not.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,411
    edited January 19
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    I've commented this before, but my profession, background, and income should put me and most people I associate with as firm Conservative voters, despite us being in our 20s. I do not know a single one - even the come from wealth, free house from the family, university conservative types are at the very least Lib Dems, and this isn't some inbuilt feature, just four years ago a majority of them that I knew then were among the 20% of U25s that voted Conservative. Yesterday I even had a director on a healthy six figure salary bemoaning the cost of childcare and housing openly wishing for a GE! I'm not really sure where they go if they're getting thrashed among bankers, consultants, accountants, and lawyers.

    If they had any sense they'd combine student loan forgiveness (a 22 year old grad on 28k has the same marginal rate as a 50 year old on £125k, and a 23 year old with a masters on 28k has the same marginal rate as a magic circle Partner bringing in £1m+!) with pivoting to a Canadian Conservative position. However for as long as they don't I hope they get wiped out.
    All the well-off people I know are anti-Conservatives these days. A big change from a few years ago. But I imagine if you go to Bassetlaw or Ashfield you'd find a few young Tories.
    I don't know any, and I'm not sure which demographic group they would come from. There was always a small fringe group that went BNP then probably the right edge of UKIP, but BNP vote topped out at 5% - once.

    That group would imo go more for Reform.

    I don't see him doing too well with military types, either.

    Perhaps he'll get voters whom he has helped as a constituency MP, where he can be assiduous. But there is a whole street blighted by an unlawful traveller encampment for several years - to the extent that even price-slashed houses don't sell and it was a lovely quiet area full of people there for 20-50 years, and he has not got the Council to get a handle on that either.

    I know a few people with children at schools in what should be Anderson-heartland (ie where he grew up and lived when he was a single dad for 10 years, and where he was a Councillor; I'll ask when I next see one.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    The NYT has a very good article on all four of DJT's criminal cases. Basically, the classified documents one has the best chance of success but it has a Trumpy judge and a Floridian jury. None of them are likely to be decisively resolved by the election.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,142
    edited January 19
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, I believe the 2024 US Presidential election will be decided in court whatever the current primary and caucus results show.

    If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.

    Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings

    We should have a thread on what happens in the improbable-but-not-implausible event that SCOTUS disqualify Trump. I guess he's still got the delegates so he puts up Ivanka or Donald Trump Jr or someone as a proxy?

    On the criminal cases, I think if any of them finish in time it would have to be the DC one and that one seems tight. Assuming he wins the primary he'd control the delegates so I think he still runs, from jail if necessary. I don't think there's any procedure to get rid of him if the delegates want him, and even if there was everyone involved would be too scared of his base to use it.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,411
    edited January 19

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, I believe the 2024 US Presidential election will be decided in court whatever the current primary and caucus results show.

    If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.

    Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings

    We should have a thread on what happens in the improbable-but-not-implausible event that SCOTUS disqualify Trump. I guess he's still got the delegates so he puts up Ivanka or Donald Trump Jr or someone as a proxy?

    On the criminal cases, I think if any of them finish in time it would have to be the DC one and that one seems tight. Assuming he wins the primary he'd control the delegates so I think he still runs, from jail if necessary. I don't think there's any procedure to get rid of him if the delegates want him, and even if there was everyone involved would be too scared of his base to use it.
    It may be possible that the Florida Judge Cannon is removed by the Circuit which is her boss. Would require her tactics to fail - she has been doing all kinds of things by making informal rather than formal rulings (my vocabulary for the Usonian legal terms), which are not immediately Appealable. And it needs something formal for Prosecutor Jack Smith to Appeal - may possibly happen over something around the Secure Facility created for safe handling of Top Secret documents, which Cannon seems to be cocking up.

    In that case the Florida action could moved quickly, because it is a simple case.

    But Trump will be dragging his feet like William Brown being taken towards the bathtub.

  • Options
    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 706
    edited January 19
    Dura_Ace said:

    The NYT has a very good article on all four of DJT's criminal cases. Basically, the classified documents one has the best chance of success but it has a Trumpy judge and a Floridian jury. None of them are likely to be decisively resolved by the election.

    Personally, I'll be extremely surprised if he's convicted, never mind jailed before the election.

    Always ready to be proved wrong as ever, but I think the court cases are a bit of a red herring/clutching at straws etc.

    Even if he were convicted, I still think he'd win the GOP nomination comfortably.

    So current gut feeling, I don't think the court cases are going to play a decisive role, and will be amazed if SCOTUS rules against him re ballot access/insurrection in early Feb.

    Also think some of the media opinion has been much too complacent about his chances - the Economist World Ahead 2024 (in general very good) gave his chances of winning the election as one in three, they're more like one in two for me.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    edited January 19
    Tory win in Hackney, (not something you often read).

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17959/local-council-elections-18th-january?page=4

    "HACKNEY Cazenove

    SHARER, Ian (Conservative) 1,623
    PASCAL, Laura (Labour) 935
    MICNER, Tamara (Green) 387
    RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat) 73"

    More information:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Cazenove (Hackney) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.8% (+47.4)
    LAB: 31.0% (-13.1)
    GRN: 12.8% (+1.0)
    LDEM: 2.4% (-35.2)

    Votes cast: 3,018

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1748142763747483750

    Andrew Teale helps to explain this week's local by-elections.

    https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-six-local-by-elections-of-18th-january-2024-0f59658b8b7d
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,142
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, I believe the 2024 US Presidential election will be decided in court whatever the current primary and caucus results show.

    If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.

    Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings

    We should have a thread on what happens in the improbable-but-not-implausible event that SCOTUS disqualify Trump. I guess he's still got the delegates so he puts up Ivanka or Donald Trump Jr or someone as a proxy?

    On the criminal cases, I think if any of them finish in time it would have to be the DC one and that one seems tight. Assuming he wins the primary he'd control the delegates so I think he still runs, from jail if necessary. I don't think there's any procedure to get rid of him if the delegates want him, and even if there was everyone involved would be too scared of his base to use it.
    It may be possible that the Florida Judge Cannon is removed by the Circuit which is her boss. Would require her tactics to fail - she has been doing all kinds of things by making informal rather than formal rulings (my vocabulary for the Usonian legal terms), which are not immediately Appealable.

    In that case the Florida action could moved quickly, because it is a very simple case.

    But Trump will be dragging his feet like William Brown being taken towards the bathtub.

    I haven't heard of any sign or prospect that Cannon will get replaced any time soon. Have you?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,411
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory win in Hackney, (not something you often read).

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17959/local-council-elections-18th-january?page=4

    "HACKNEY Cazenove

    SHARER, Ian (Conservative) 1,623
    PASCAL, Laura (Labour) 935
    MICNER, Tamara (Green) 387
    RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat) 73"

    More information:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Cazenove (Hackney) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.8% (+47.4)
    LAB: 31.0% (-13.1)
    GRN: 12.8% (+1.0)
    LDEM: 2.4% (-35.2)

    Votes cast: 3,018

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1748142763747483750

    Are you sure that's right?

    Reporting is that Sharer is a Lib Dem, and their group leader.

    And that local politics in the ward are quite poisonous.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory win in Hackney, (not something you often read).

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17959/local-council-elections-18th-january?page=4

    "HACKNEY Cazenove

    SHARER, Ian (Conservative) 1,623
    PASCAL, Laura (Labour) 935
    MICNER, Tamara (Green) 387
    RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat) 73"

    More information:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Cazenove (Hackney) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.8% (+47.4)
    LAB: 31.0% (-13.1)
    GRN: 12.8% (+1.0)
    LDEM: 2.4% (-35.2)

    Votes cast: 3,018

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1748142763747483750

    Are you sure that's right?

    Reporting is that Sharer is a Lib Dem, and their group leader.

    And that local politics in the ward are quite poisonous.
    Yes. Sharer defected from the LDs to Tories recently.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,989
    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,989

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,294
    Nigelb said:

    Rival parties roll out strategies to address Korea's low birthrate
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=367192

    Note that U.S. birthrate is (though nowhere near as catastrophic as Korea) well below replacement.

    I predict attitudes towards immigration will do another about turn over the next decade.

    I'm not sure such attitudes are linked to the demographics.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,095

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Not really. It is a bit of a stretch to claim their employer should have paid the tax when these are predominantly freelancers in the first place.

    We all have to pay our taxes.

    People essentially taking their salary via an EBT where their salary, or most of it, is a loan that they will never have to pay back. What do these mugs expect ? The vast majority wilfully avoided tax and are now facing the consequences.

    They were advised by salesmen these schemes were fine they claim. Many heard what they wanted to hear. When I contracted I had a couple of agencies (who would be getting an introduction fee) tell me I had to use one of these schemes. Looked dodgy as hell to me. I refused. Of course not wanting to lose the commission they relented and allowed me to use the brolly.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge-an-overview/tax-avoidance-loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge

    https://www.businessrescueexpert.co.uk/the-loan-charge-is-coming/

    I wonder if the ‘eek’ who posts on the contractoruk forum is the same as the one who posts here. May have a different view.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904

    Nigelb said:

    Rival parties roll out strategies to address Korea's low birthrate
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=367192

    Note that U.S. birthrate is (though nowhere near as catastrophic as Korea) well below replacement.

    I predict attitudes towards immigration will do another about turn over the next decade.

    I'm not sure such attitudes are linked to the demographics.
    The housing and money terms look about as generous as a (any) state can offer tbh.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904
    Just reading up on the Bronson Battersby story, not immediately obvious to me what should have been done unless the police are going to immediately force entry any time a social worker reports they don't get an answer at a property. Perhaps the police are to blame here - as I say though doesn't look immediately obvious to me.
    A truly heartbreaking story
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411

    Nigelb said:

    Rival parties roll out strategies to address Korea's low birthrate
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=367192

    Note that U.S. birthrate is (though nowhere near as catastrophic as Korea) well below replacement.

    I predict attitudes towards immigration will do another about turn over the next decade.

    I'm not sure such attitudes are linked to the demographics.
    They have recently and noticeably started to change in Korea, which traditionally was far more opposed to immigration than are either the US or we.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,103
    edited January 19

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    Another irregular verb!

    When people use the identical phrase "from the river to the sea":
    I express legitimate concerns about security.
    You don't have any business talking about it at all.
    They are supporting genocidal terrorists.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,553
    Pulpstar said:

    Just reading up on the Bronson Battersby story, not immediately obvious to me what should have been done unless the police are going to immediately force entry any time a social worker reports they don't get an answer at a property. Perhaps the police are to blame here - as I say though doesn't look immediately obvious to me.
    A truly heartbreaking story

    Yes, and it's not just the police and social services. No neighbour, friend or the mother tried to raise the alarm either. A tragic case indeed.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,916
    Taz said:
    Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,095
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
    Loans that are intended to be written off sound like a blatant IR35 evasion measure, so little sympathy there.

    Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 825
    edited January 19

    Nigelb said:

    Wasn't this understood to be a phrase of genocidal intent ?

    Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757

    Context matters

    Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.

    Israel talks about security control.
    But the (appropriate in my view) criticism of the chant at protests is not Hamas’ wording but ‘from the river to the sea Palestinians will be free’. Which, if context matters, is both more peaceful and more desirable than one side ‘controlling’ the other.

    You can’t have it both ways. Either the phrase itself is inappropriate, or the chants at protests are okay.

    Netanyahu knows exactly what he is doing, just as left wingers who use the phrase do. You defending him does you no credit.

    ETA: @StillWaters I sent you a pm a few days ago - if you had time I’d be interested in your reply. No worries if not, though.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,231

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I highly doubt the GOP vote would split like this if Trump was convicted of something or other.

    How do you think they will split, then ?
    GOP would be 80: 20 imho
    Though a party that loses 20% of its support is still completely rubber ducked.

    (Though even 40% retention for a convicted candidate is pretty alarming.)

    Even if 100% of Republicans would still vote for him, the split among Independents in that poll would give Trump no chance.
    If I recall correctly, a large majority of "independents" typically vote Republican. Democrat-leaning voters are more likely to identify as a Democrat, while GOP-leaning voters are quite likely to identify as Independent.

    So the independent split in that poll is even worse for Trump than it appears at first glance.
    Here's a poll from December showing not that big an effect from a Trump conviction:
    https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Poll_Dec_2023.pdf

    Q.29 More specifically, if the 2024 general election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?
    Definitely Trump 40
    Probably Trump 7
    Probably Biden 6
    Definitely Biden 37
    Undecided 10

    Q.62 (SPLIT A) If Donald Trump is convicted of a felony in either the classified documents or January 6th federal trials and the election for President were held, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
    Definitely Trump 38
    Probably Trump 7
    Probably Biden 4
    Definitely Biden 42
    Undecided 9

    Then they also have:
    Q.63 (SPLIT B) If Joe Biden is impeached by the House of Representatives due to his involvement with his son Hunter’s foreign influence peddling and the election for President were held, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
    Definitely Trump 41
    Probably Trump 5
    Probably Biden 8
    Definitely Biden 33
    Undecided 13

    Looking at total Trump vs total Biden it's
    Trump +4
    If Trump convicted: Biden +1
    If Biden impeached: Trump +5

    Depending on the circumstances, if Trump is really convicted it might have even less effect, if enough people think he is the victim.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,868
    ...
  • Options
    On topic, lock him up.
  • Options
    Byline Times reveals memo from TalkTV boss Richard Wallace telling staff to "bring migrants back to the front of the agenda" and focus on its "usual domestic 'hits'" such as the Rwanda Commons showdown rather than Ukraine, Gaza and US politics

    https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1747226248688828801
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,936
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
    Loans that are intended to be written off sound like a blatant IR35 evasion measure, so little sympathy there.

    Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
    Simple rule is if it looks like a PAYE job HMRC expect to see the PAYE payments but it's worth going through the history.

    I have little sympathy for those caught in schemes from about 2005 through to 2017 everyone entering a scheme was well paid and so buyer beware.

    From 2017 onwards a lot of lower paid people were dragged back inside IR35 (because HMRC changed the rules) at which point a lot of them were tricked into joining schemes to try and keep their previous take home pay. And I do mean tricked there is a whole set of tricks a dubious company can use to reduce what they pay in PAYE and no one in that segment of the market will know enough to spot the tricks.

    Heck there are 2 software companies that operate in the market of identifying such schemes via payslips and I doubt there are many more people with the expertise to identify scams quickly (I know most of the payroll providers couldn't).
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,095
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
    Loans that are intended to be written off sound like a blatant IR35 evasion measure, so little sympathy there.

    Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
    Absolutely agree with this. There was a scandal a few years back about blue collar, low paid, agency workers (especially in the care sector) forced into using umbrella companies. A practise I thought had ceased.

  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,706

    Dura_Ace said:

    The NYT has a very good article on all four of DJT's criminal cases. Basically, the classified documents one has the best chance of success but it has a Trumpy judge and a Floridian jury. None of them are likely to be decisively resolved by the election.

    Personally, I'll be extremely surprised if he's convicted, never mind jailed before the election.

    Always ready to be proved wrong as ever, but I think the court cases are a bit of a red herring/clutching at straws etc.

    Even if he were convicted, I still think he'd win the GOP nomination comfortably.

    So current gut feeling, I don't think the court cases are going to play a decisive role, and will be amazed if SCOTUS rules against him re ballot access/insurrection in early Feb.

    Also think some of the media opinion has been much too complacent about his chances - the Economist World Ahead 2024 (in general very good) gave his chances of winning the election as one in three, they're more like one in two for me.
    The cases look extremely strong, his only chance of avoiding conviction in at least one would be to delay them and then win the presidency and pardon himself.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,948
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "HMRC tax collection: 'I'm sure suicides will increase'

    Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k

    Unfortunate, but it seems like people who tried to engage in tax evasion and got caught out?

    Have I misunderstood?
    Yes.

    The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!

    My brother got caught up in this, a combination of child benefit clawback and company car tax allowance that should have pushed him in to the £100k 65% Hell but didn’t.

    He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
    IS this the same thing ?

    The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.

    The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
    Loans that are intended to be written off sound like a blatant IR35 evasion measure, so little sympathy there.

    Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
    Absolutely agree with this. There was a scandal a few years back about blue collar, low paid, agency workers (especially in the care sector) forced into using umbrella companies. A practise I thought had ceased.

    There are still teaching assistant agencies which do this.
    Having workers on close to minimum wage pay their own employer NI.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,916
    Lab Leak is now all but confirmed. Does that matter?

    YES IT FUCKING MATTERS

    20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
    displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”

    And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
    China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”

    It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Dura_Ace said:

    The NYT has a very good article on all four of DJT's criminal cases. Basically, the classified documents one has the best chance of success but it has a Trumpy judge and a Floridian jury. None of them are likely to be decisively resolved by the election.

    Personally, I'll be extremely surprised if he's convicted, never mind jailed before the election.

    Always ready to be proved wrong as ever, but I think the court cases are a bit of a red herring/clutching at straws etc.

    Even if he were convicted, I still think he'd win the GOP nomination comfortably.

    So current gut feeling, I don't think the court cases are going to play a decisive role, and will be amazed if SCOTUS rules against him re ballot access/insurrection in early Feb.

    Also think some of the media opinion has been much too complacent about his chances - the Economist World Ahead 2024 (in general very good) gave his chances of winning the election as one in three, they're more like one in two for me.
    The cases look extremely strong, his only chance of avoiding conviction in at least one would be to delay them and then win the presidency and pardon himself.
    He can only pardon himself for federal convictions, not state. If he gets convicted in Georgia, for example - game over for that strategy.

    The Supreme Court could delay until the twelfth of never, theoretically. But that in itself would look a partisan move when they have a track record of moving very quickly on matters that affect the Presidency (I believe judgement in Gore v Bush was given in 72 hours).

    I have little doubt they will decide that Trump's effort to create a whole tier of immunity for criminal actions will be struck down by the Supreme Court. The "Seal Team Six" argument was poorly dealt with by his lawyer in the DC court - and was toxic. Strip that away immunity, and Trump is back to arguing "I didn't do it!". A raft of his co-conspirators have taken plea bargains - part of which requires them to dish the dirt on Trump.

    Trump is running out of road. Much as he might scream it, this is not Trump being a victim; it is a consequence of his criminal actions, being pursued by professional prosecutors who have a great track record in getting RICO and mob convictions.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,314
    edited January 19
    Where England & Wales leads Scotland inevitably follows, the SNP should have taken up Gove's offer of a Britain wide ban.

    An SNP minister has insisted she is committed to a “deed and not breed” approach to dangerous dogs as she formally announced a ban on XL bullies in Scotland.

    Siobhian Brown, the community safety minister, told MSPs that the Scottish government did not believe in breed-specific legislation but would still replicate the breed-specific rules announced by Westminster in September.

    Brown, who claimed that the rules would be “safeguards” and not a “ban”, said the government would “develop guidance and practical support to allow owners to understand the legislation of what is required … using the standard developed by the UK government”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/american-xl-bully-dogs-ban-scotland-ministers-policy-fll8qqsvw
This discussion has been closed.