Categories
Options
Why punters should take notice of Trump’s court cases – politicalbetting.com
Why punters should take notice of Trump’s court cases – politicalbetting.com
0
This discussion has been closed.
Why punters should take notice of Trump’s court cases – politicalbetting.com
Comments
not in november, when it is biden or trump on the ballot paper in front of them. even if he is in a cell.
they will vote for him.
Jeez enough already .
PS seeing as its Mike S I’d better muzzle it ! My two pence worth GOP voters will find a way to vote for Trump,, they’ll accuse the jury of being biased .
If Trump is convicted of any of his offences that he is charged with then I think either DeSantis or Haley will ultimately get the nomination, albeit it would probably go all the way to the GOP convention.
Provided the SC doesn't ban him from the ballot for insurrection however Trump would go independent and as that poll shows he would still get 20% of the vote. That would be the highest share for a 3rd party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 but given almost all Trump votes would be taken from the GOP candidate it would hand the election on a plate to Biden. As Roosevelt's bid in 1912 handed the election to Democrat Wilson who won with just 42%, close to Biden's current poll ratings
Netanyahu: "In the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea."
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1748045086812692757
It is nonsense on stilts.
Lawyer for Sidney Powell faces disciplinary charges over 2020 election case
https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/lawyer-sidney-powell-faces-disciplinary-charges-over-2020-election-case-2024-01-18/
Tens of thousands of people across the country are facing crippling tax demands from HMRC in a harsh campaign that has been linked to 10 suicides. It all comes back to a 2016 piece of legislation that made individuals responsible for tax that their employers should have paid. Sophy Ridge speaks to Jai from the Loan Charge Action Group, who has been personally affected and says "suicides will increase" unless the issue is resolved."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9gurDED78k
(Though even 40% retention for a convicted candidate is pretty alarming.)
But I so think it captures an effect that will shift votes. You seemed to be arguing otherwise.
"We are just the little, skint people" as Alan Bates said.
Maybe that should be Labour's slogan??
David Gauke
@DavidGauke
·
7h
Right wing Tories endorsing Donald Trump is going to be something of a feature of 2024. Revealing and electorally unhelpful.
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
28m
Friday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Nato warns of war with Russia in the next 20 years” #TomorrowsPapersToday
---
But Sunak and co remain asleep at the wheel, endlessly prattling and gyraping about Rwanda and little dinghies whilst we sleepwalk into the next world war with our military woefully underfunded and the public oblivious.
When the US NATO tide goes out under Trump 2.0 we will see who was not wearing military trunks.
This will be what the history books say about Tory 2010-2024. Not boats. Not migration. Not crap about how many people are faking mental illness to get benefits.
But defence.
And Russia.
Lee Anderson was all set to vote in the no lobby last night when Labour MPs started "sniggling" at him. He later explained he was very upset at Labour MPs "sniggling " at him which is why he instead abstained.
Don't "sniggle" at Lee.
https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1747998945022808496
Even if 100% of Republicans would still vote for him, the split among Independents in that poll would give Trump no chance.
Some have a religious attachment to Trump. But faced with a rapist fraudster in an orange jumpsuit facing the rest of his natural life behind bars for trying to butt-fuck democracy, enough scales will fall from eyes.
https://x.com/michael_hal/status/1748097786455736324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Only 43% of Republicans saying they would vote for a convicted Trump means he could well still lose the nomination if he is convicted of criminal offences, albeit still have enough support to go Independent which he would
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1748121878017777697
If, by contrast, Trump is convicted months earlier, say in early August, shortly after Trump is formally nominated at the convention, then the impact by the time election day arrives, will be much reduced. People will have seen that Trump could be convicted, but the election campaign would continue, and the idea of a convicted felon still winning election would be normalised by the continual discussion of the possibility, while other issues, such as inflation, or whether Biden's embalming would preserve him for a full second term, would be much more prominent.
Not quite @Dura_Ace oppo fun, but several slides corrected on bends. And then the added fun of having to dig a parking space when I got back. A combination of ploughing the road and the pavements meant two compacted snow walls which needed removing so that I could then beach the thing into over the top of my boots deep snow.
Break dry January with a large dram. Think it is deserved… 😳
“If an employer set up a scheme then the tax liabilities will fall to them and not the employee. HMRC will only seek payment from the employee if it cannot be collected from the employer, for example where the employer no longer exists or is off-shore. In these circumstances HMRC would collect the liabilities owed from the employee, who benefited from the scheme.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge-an-overview/tax-avoidance-loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge
Generally it looks like people knew what they were doing, and have been given half a decade to get their affairs in order.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=367192
Note that U.S. birthrate is (though nowhere near as catastrophic as Korea) well below replacement.
I predict attitudes towards immigration will do another about turn over the next decade.
Frankly, the state of GOP voters - he might get a higher % if he is in a jumps suit because he's being persecuted by the commie, woke, mexican-loving, lefty george town lawyers who have never eaten grits in Joe's Tennessee Diner etc etc etc...
So the independent split in that poll is even worse for Trump than it appears at first glance.
Have I misunderstood?
"I wonder whether there is any point to the Conservative Party, and I say that because they'll always argue, amongst divisions, that "we're a broad church" but even a broad church needs a religion of some kind to believe in. I'm not sure they've actually got this anymore. I think they're not fit for purpose. I think they're on the way out."
LD 1177
Con 771
Lab 159
Grn 106
If they had any sense they'd combine student loan forgiveness (a 22 year old grad on 28k has the same marginal rate as a 50 year old on £125k, and a 23 year old with a masters on 28k has the same marginal rate as a magic circle Partner bringing in £1m+!) with pivoting to a Canadian Conservative position. However for as long as they don't I hope they get wiped out.
According to NHK World, Japan just bought 400 Tomahawk missiles from the US. They probably meant “ordered”, rather than “bought”, but it is still a significant sale.
Especially when you combine that with the fact that Japan could make nuclear bombs within less than a year, perhaps within less than six months. (They have a fairly large stock of plutonium.)
“King” Kim, “Czar” Putin, and “Emperor” Xi are edging us closer to nuclear war. I hope I am wrong in that dismal conclusion.
(Cross posted at Patterico's.)
LD 1716
Con 561
Lab 163
Grn 184
Ind 46
So Richmond on Thames is now a Tory and Labour freezone!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea
"Analysts have attributed South Korea's population decline resulting from low birth rates to the country's high economic inequality; including the high cost of living, low wages for an OECD member country, lack of job opportunities, as well as rising housing costs.[10] Many South Koreans have termed their country "Hell Joseon"[a] as a result, and the last two generations has considered themselves "Sampo"[b] and "N-po"[c] respectively.[11][12] South Korea also has the highest suicide rate in the OECD and the wider developed world."
(When last I checked, East Asians in the US (Chinese, Japanese, Koreans) had a total fertility rate close to that of whites. And, of course, South Koreans have been, for years, one of the largest groups of "birth tourists", here.)
During a ceremony Wednesday awarding the Akutagawa Prize to author Rie Kudan, the writer revealed that “about five percent” of her novel was composed using the AI chatbot program ChatGPT.
Kudan’s novel “The Tokyo Tower of Sympathy,” praised by judges as “flawless,” takes place in a futuristic Tokyo with AI as a recurring theme, according to the Agence France-Presse."
https://nypost.com/2024/01/18/news/rie-kudan-used-ai-to-help-write-the-tokyo-tower-of-sympathy/
That group would imo go more for Reform.
I don't see him doing too well with military types, either.
Perhaps he'll get voters whom he has helped as a constituency MP, where he can be assiduous. But there is a whole street blighted by an unlawful traveller encampment for several years - to the extent that even price-slashed houses don't sell and it was a lovely quiet area full of people there for 20-50 years, and he has not got the Council to get a handle on that either.
I know a few people with children at schools in what should be Anderson-heartland (ie where he grew up and lived when he was a single dad for 10 years, and where he was a Councillor; I'll ask when I next see one.
On the criminal cases, I think if any of them finish in time it would have to be the DC one and that one seems tight. Assuming he wins the primary he'd control the delegates so I think he still runs, from jail if necessary. I don't think there's any procedure to get rid of him if the delegates want him, and even if there was everyone involved would be too scared of his base to use it.
In that case the Florida action could moved quickly, because it is a simple case.
But Trump will be dragging his feet like William Brown being taken towards the bathtub.
Always ready to be proved wrong as ever, but I think the court cases are a bit of a red herring/clutching at straws etc.
Even if he were convicted, I still think he'd win the GOP nomination comfortably.
So current gut feeling, I don't think the court cases are going to play a decisive role, and will be amazed if SCOTUS rules against him re ballot access/insurrection in early Feb.
Also think some of the media opinion has been much too complacent about his chances - the Economist World Ahead 2024 (in general very good) gave his chances of winning the election as one in three, they're more like one in two for me.
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17959/local-council-elections-18th-january?page=4
"HACKNEY Cazenove
SHARER, Ian (Conservative) 1,623
PASCAL, Laura (Labour) 935
MICNER, Tamara (Green) 387
RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat) 73"
More information:
"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Cazenove (Hackney) council by-election result:
CON: 53.8% (+47.4)
LAB: 31.0% (-13.1)
GRN: 12.8% (+1.0)
LDEM: 2.4% (-35.2)
Votes cast: 3,018
Conservative GAIN from Labour."
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1748142763747483750
Andrew Teale helps to explain this week's local by-elections.
https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-six-local-by-elections-of-18th-january-2024-0f59658b8b7d
Reporting is that Sharer is a Lib Dem, and their group leader.
And that local politics in the ward are quite poisonous.
Hamas ‘s phrase is to *kill* every Jew “between the river and the sea”.
Israel talks about security control.
The big nasty tax man is asking them to pay what they owe and it’s so unfair, they are VICTIMS!
We all have to pay our taxes.
People essentially taking their salary via an EBT where their salary, or most of it, is a loan that they will never have to pay back. What do these mugs expect ? The vast majority wilfully avoided tax and are now facing the consequences.
They were advised by salesmen these schemes were fine they claim. Many heard what they wanted to hear. When I contracted I had a couple of agencies (who would be getting an introduction fee) tell me I had to use one of these schemes. Looked dodgy as hell to me. I refused. Of course not wanting to lose the commission they relented and allowed me to use the brolly.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge-an-overview/tax-avoidance-loan-schemes-and-the-loan-charge
https://www.businessrescueexpert.co.uk/the-loan-charge-is-coming/
I wonder if the ‘eek’ who posts on the contractoruk forum is the same as the one who posts here. May have a different view.
https://x.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1748216157188846035?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
A truly heartbreaking story
When people use the identical phrase "from the river to the sea":
I express legitimate concerns about security.
You don't have any business talking about it at all.
They are supporting genocidal terrorists.
He says (to me) that he told his employer all of the correct details for PAYE, but the taxman says that it’s up to the taxpayer to ensure they are correctly applied. He owes them about £10k.
The Loan Charge scandal, so-called, is about freelancers (around 65% were in IT), taking their salary as a loan via an EBT which they would never have to pay back. The managers of the EBT would take a cut for "managing" the process.
The news articles refer to cleaners and nurses being victims of this however the HMRC stats show the vast majority of people caught up by this were white collar workers in well paid professions. IT freelancers being the main one.
Much more sympathy for blue-collar ‘gig’ and agency workers caught up in the net though, most of them think they don’t really need an accountant nor fill out a tax return. They’re coming next for small-time online sellers, who often do this in their spare time and also don’t realise that they need to keep records.
You can’t have it both ways. Either the phrase itself is inappropriate, or the chants at protests are okay.
Netanyahu knows exactly what he is doing, just as left wingers who use the phrase do. You defending him does you no credit.
ETA: @StillWaters I sent you a pm a few days ago - if you had time I’d be interested in your reply. No worries if not, though.
https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Poll_Dec_2023.pdf
Q.29 More specifically, if the 2024 general election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?
Definitely Trump 40
Probably Trump 7
Probably Biden 6
Definitely Biden 37
Undecided 10
Q.62 (SPLIT A) If Donald Trump is convicted of a felony in either the classified documents or January 6th federal trials and the election for President were held, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
Definitely Trump 38
Probably Trump 7
Probably Biden 4
Definitely Biden 42
Undecided 9
Then they also have:
Q.63 (SPLIT
Definitely Trump 41
Probably Trump 5
Probably Biden 8
Definitely Biden 33
Undecided 13
Looking at total Trump vs total Biden it's
Trump +4
If Trump convicted: Biden +1
If Biden impeached: Trump +5
Depending on the circumstances, if Trump is really convicted it might have even less effect, if enough people think he is the victim.
https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1747226248688828801
I have little sympathy for those caught in schemes from about 2005 through to 2017 everyone entering a scheme was well paid and so buyer beware.
From 2017 onwards a lot of lower paid people were dragged back inside IR35 (because HMRC changed the rules) at which point a lot of them were tricked into joining schemes to try and keep their previous take home pay. And I do mean tricked there is a whole set of tricks a dubious company can use to reduce what they pay in PAYE and no one in that segment of the market will know enough to spot the tricks.
Heck there are 2 software companies that operate in the market of identifying such schemes via payslips and I doubt there are many more people with the expertise to identify scams quickly (I know most of the payroll providers couldn't).
Having workers on close to minimum wage pay their own employer NI.
YES IT FUCKING MATTERS
20 million people died. The world spent $25 TRILLION fighting the pandemic. Millions more lives were ruined. Millions of jobs have been lost. Entire nations have been endangered by debt and
displacement, science itself has been brought into dangerous disrepute. The experts lied to us; and they knowingly lied - “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”
And all because a small band of arrogant scientists thought it would be fun to fuck around with novel bat viruses, making them even more dangerous to humans, and they were paid by America to do it in
China in low security biolabs, science explicitly forbidden in the USA because it is “too dangerous”
It reads like a lurid thriller. Yet that is what happened. People need to pay with their liberty - or worse
The Supreme Court could delay until the twelfth of never, theoretically. But that in itself would look a partisan move when they have a track record of moving very quickly on matters that affect the Presidency (I believe judgement in Gore v Bush was given in 72 hours).
I have little doubt they will decide that Trump's effort to create a whole tier of immunity for criminal actions will be struck down by the Supreme Court. The "Seal Team Six" argument was poorly dealt with by his lawyer in the DC court - and was toxic. Strip that away immunity, and Trump is back to arguing "I didn't do it!". A raft of his co-conspirators have taken plea bargains - part of which requires them to dish the dirt on Trump.
Trump is running out of road. Much as he might scream it, this is not Trump being a victim; it is a consequence of his criminal actions, being pursued by professional prosecutors who have a great track record in getting RICO and mob convictions.
An SNP minister has insisted she is committed to a “deed and not breed” approach to dangerous dogs as she formally announced a ban on XL bullies in Scotland.
Siobhian Brown, the community safety minister, told MSPs that the Scottish government did not believe in breed-specific legislation but would still replicate the breed-specific rules announced by Westminster in September.
Brown, who claimed that the rules would be “safeguards” and not a “ban”, said the government would “develop guidance and practical support to allow owners to understand the legislation of what is required … using the standard developed by the UK government”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/american-xl-bully-dogs-ban-scotland-ministers-policy-fll8qqsvw