"Henson, a Golden Globe winner, spoke candidly to the New York Times about how much she had to fight for on the set of the Warner Bros film – not just for herself, but for all of the members of the hugely talented ensemble cast, which included Tony-nominated actress Danielle Brooks and Grammy-winning Fantasia Barrino.
“They gave us rental cars, and I was like: ‘I can’t drive myself to set in Atlanta.’ This is insurance liability, it’s dangerous,” Henson told the Times. “So I was like: ‘Can I get a driver or security to take me?’ I’m not asking for the moon.”"
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
Simple answer is that there very probably isn't.
But then, I'm not the government that has staked what's left of its reputation on stopping the boats. One of the legends in the national unconciousness is about the foolishness of trying to stop unstoppable things from the sea.
(Slightly less simple answer. If you want to stop the boats, because they are terrible, undercut them by processing on the French coast.
If you want to stop the people, bear in mind that there are bigger flows to worry about, such as holiday travellers just forgetting to leave. But a good place to start is the black economy that many end up in. And you can best do that by going after the employers. Another is to make the desperate places in the world less desperate.
But long story short, there is nothing more pathetic than impotent shouting and coming up with cruelties that you can't impliment for want of better ideas or an ability to change the subject. Which is there the government has landed itself.)
Suspect there's a big difference between holiday visa overstayers and boat people in terms of likely criminal behaviour and so on. They have to qualify for a visa first, after all.
The visa overstayers are probably more of a burden on the NHS though - is anyone checking Grandma's documents on admission to hospital?
Yes, they are checked routinely, and billed accordingly.
I suspect it is overstayers working in the black market. As most of the small boat arrivals apply for asylum, they are not working illegally. Apart from anything else that violates the conditions of their stay. The asylum seekers I know find the forced idleness quite difficult, with nothing to do but sit around getting depressed.
After 12 months asylum applicants can apply for permission to work, but that isn't illegal employment by definition.
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
Simple answer is that there very probably isn't.
But then, I'm not the government that has staked what's left of its reputation on stopping the boats. One of the legends in the national unconciousness is about the foolishness of trying to stop unstoppable things from the sea.
(Slightly less simple answer. If you want to stop the boats, because they are terrible, undercut them by processing on the French coast.
If you want to stop the people, bear in mind that there are bigger flows to worry about, such as holiday travellers just forgetting to leave. But a good place to start is the black economy that many end up in. And you can best do that by going after the employers. Another is to make the desperate places in the world less desperate.
But long story short, there is nothing more pathetic than impotent shouting and coming up with cruelties that you can't impliment for want of better ideas or an ability to change the subject. Which is there the government has landed itself.)
"And you can best do that by going after the employers"
Yup
Once again
1) 100K fine per employee without legal right to work 2) Directors of companies personally liable - so no asset shells don't protect 3) 50% of fine give to whoever reports, upon conviction 4) If the reporting person is undocumented, give them indefinite leave to remain as well, upon conviction of the employer. 5) 6 month grace period until the law comes into force.
3)&4) would ensure a thriving trade in "doing" such employers. 2) will make the employers personal assets subject to this. 5) ensure that the courts wouldn't be clogged - employers will "sort out their employee paperwork". Unless they are stupid.
Once again, the number of people coming over in boats and disappearing into the black economy seems to be low. Far more come over and claim asylum (and then the majority of those are granted asylum). Your plan won't stop the boats.
There are significant numbers of people in the country illegally, but they're mostly visa overstayers. You can, yes, crack down on them. If you are concerned about illegal immigration, that would be a good thing to do. However, the Tories have made small boat crossings totemic.
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
They could do Australian style tow backs. Pick up the refugees at sea, decant them into a lifeboat, tow it west into international waters and cut it loose just outside the French territorial limit with just enough fuel to get to France. Bung one of them a few thousand euros to drive the boat.
The boats in question are marginally seaworthy. A tow is a dangerous thing, at sea, with full cooperation
There have already been cases, in the Med, of making the boat unseaworthy and then calling the authorities. Encourage that approach, and you will end up with a large number of dead people.
That's why they get put into lifeboats bought for the purpose.
Immigration. My guess is there will be an influx of Indians who studied in America but now cannot find jobs in the United States as employers snap up experienced techies laid off in their thousands by Google and other tech behemoths, in preference to foreign graduates with no experience and who need H1B visa sponsorship.
Are we ready for an massive influx of left-leaning americans seeking to come here to escape Trump 2.0 come this time next year?
He's a dweeb. Head stuck in spreadsheets the whole time. Eg have we seen him actually out there on the waves, looking for boats, like Farage? Not unless I've missed it.
You'd think the little twat was going through the Drake Passage in Sea State 6 from the expression on his face.
I went through the Drake Passage in a crazy flat calm. There were tiny ripples on the surface of the ocean, nothing more.
Two days later in Antarctica it was a force 11, -17C and with the windchill -50C....
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
They could do Australian style tow backs. Pick up the refugees at sea, decant them into a lifeboat, tow it west into international waters and cut it loose just outside the French territorial limit with just enough fuel to get to France. Bung one of them a few thousand euros to drive the boat.
The boats in question are marginally seaworthy. A tow is a dangerous thing, at sea, with full cooperation
There have already been cases, in the Med, of making the boat unseaworthy and then calling the authorities. Encourage that approach, and you will end up with a large number of dead people.
That's why they get put into lifeboats bought for the purpose.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
An electric furnace will definitely be more expensive to operate compared to gas.
Sainsbury's Bank is touting for my business as its closure is announced.
We're having to alter accounts because of Citibank UK's closure. We're having lots of fun as one of the major banks is playing silly beggars with us; trying to sell us loads of products that we don't want or need. It's fairly disgraceful behaviour IMO. All we want is a current account.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
Electric arc furnaces are more efficient. However, they only work with recycled metal. They don't work with ore. So it means we can't produce steel from scratch.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
An electric furnace will definitely be more expensive to operate compared to gas.
Just going off what the BBC were reporting:
* The blast furnaces will close during 2024 and will be replaced by an electric arc furnace, which produces less CO2 * Electric arc furnaces also require fewer workers to maintain, prompting the job cuts
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
Simple answer is that there very probably isn't.
But then, I'm not the government that has staked what's left of its reputation on stopping the boats. One of the legends in the national unconciousness is about the foolishness of trying to stop unstoppable things from the sea.
(Slightly less simple answer. If you want to stop the boats, because they are terrible, undercut them by processing on the French coast.
If you want to stop the people, bear in mind that there are bigger flows to worry about, such as holiday travellers just forgetting to leave. But a good place to start is the black economy that many end up in. And you can best do that by going after the employers. Another is to make the desperate places in the world less desperate.
But long story short, there is nothing more pathetic than impotent shouting and coming up with cruelties that you can't impliment for want of better ideas or an ability to change the subject. Which is there the government has landed itself.)
"And you can best do that by going after the employers"
Yup
Once again
1) 100K fine per employee without legal right to work 2) Directors of companies personally liable - so no asset shells don't protect 3) 50% of fine give to whoever reports, upon conviction 4) If the reporting person is undocumented, give them indefinite leave to remain as well, upon conviction of the employer. 5) 6 month grace period until the law comes into force.
3)&4) would ensure a thriving trade in "doing" such employers. 2) will make the employers personal assets subject to this. 5) ensure that the courts wouldn't be clogged - employers will "sort out their employee paperwork". Unless they are stupid.
Once again, the number of people coming over in boats and disappearing into the black economy seems to be low. Far more come over and claim asylum (and then the majority of those are granted asylum). Your plan won't stop the boats.
There are significant numbers of people in the country illegally, but they're mostly visa overstayers. You can, yes, crack down on them. If you are concerned about illegal immigration, that would be a good thing to do. However, the Tories have made small boat crossings totemic.
The boating types who are *caught* claim asylum. Most disappear, if they can.
The black economy is quite large in the UK. And is used to undercut wages. If nothing else, the policy above would get rid of some nasty corners in the economy.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
Electric arc furnaces are more efficient. However, they only work with recycled metal. They don't work with ore. So it means we can't produce steel from scratch.
Thanks, a caveat that doesn't appear in the BBC's reporting!
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
You can't make 'virgin' steels without a blast furnace. Arc furnaces are used for recycling scrap.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
They could have moved to hydrogen which would have safeguarded more jobs . And it still leaves the UK without domestic steel production for a length of time , that’s if the electric arc furnaces ever see the light of day .
Local by election results 18th January 2024: 2 LD Hold (Richmond & Sheffield), 2 Lab holds (Wandsworth & Warwick), 1 LD gain from Con (Richmond) and 1 Con gain from Lab (Hackney)
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
Simple answer is that there very probably isn't.
But then, I'm not the government that has staked what's left of its reputation on stopping the boats. One of the legends in the national unconciousness is about the foolishness of trying to stop unstoppable things from the sea.
(Slightly less simple answer. If you want to stop the boats, because they are terrible, undercut them by processing on the French coast.
If you want to stop the people, bear in mind that there are bigger flows to worry about, such as holiday travellers just forgetting to leave. But a good place to start is the black economy that many end up in. And you can best do that by going after the employers. Another is to make the desperate places in the world less desperate.
But long story short, there is nothing more pathetic than impotent shouting and coming up with cruelties that you can't impliment for want of better ideas or an ability to change the subject. Which is there the government has landed itself.)
"And you can best do that by going after the employers"
Yup
Once again
1) 100K fine per employee without legal right to work 2) Directors of companies personally liable - so no asset shells don't protect 3) 50% of fine give to whoever reports, upon conviction 4) If the reporting person is undocumented, give them indefinite leave to remain as well, upon conviction of the employer. 5) 6 month grace period until the law comes into force.
3)&4) would ensure a thriving trade in "doing" such employers. 2) will make the employers personal assets subject to this. 5) ensure that the courts wouldn't be clogged - employers will "sort out their employee paperwork". Unless they are stupid.
Once again, the number of people coming over in boats and disappearing into the black economy seems to be low. Far more come over and claim asylum (and then the majority of those are granted asylum). Your plan won't stop the boats.
There are significant numbers of people in the country illegally, but they're mostly visa overstayers. You can, yes, crack down on them. If you are concerned about illegal immigration, that would be a good thing to do. However, the Tories have made small boat crossings totemic.
The boating types who are *caught* claim asylum. Most disappear, if they can.
The black economy is quite large in the UK. And is used to undercut wages. If nothing else, the policy above would get rid of some nasty corners in the economy.
"The boating types who are *caught* claim asylum. Most disappear, if they can." That's not what the Home Office estimates.
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
Simple answer is that there very probably isn't.
But then, I'm not the government that has staked what's left of its reputation on stopping the boats. One of the legends in the national unconciousness is about the foolishness of trying to stop unstoppable things from the sea.
(Slightly less simple answer. If you want to stop the boats, because they are terrible, undercut them by processing on the French coast.
If you want to stop the people, bear in mind that there are bigger flows to worry about, such as holiday travellers just forgetting to leave. But a good place to start is the black economy that many end up in. And you can best do that by going after the employers. Another is to make the desperate places in the world less desperate.
But long story short, there is nothing more pathetic than impotent shouting and coming up with cruelties that you can't impliment for want of better ideas or an ability to change the subject. Which is there the government has landed itself.)
"And you can best do that by going after the employers"
Yup
Once again
1) 100K fine per employee without legal right to work 2) Directors of companies personally liable - so no asset shells don't protect 3) 50% of fine give to whoever reports, upon conviction 4) If the reporting person is undocumented, give them indefinite leave to remain as well, upon conviction of the employer. 5) 6 month grace period until the law comes into force.
3)&4) would ensure a thriving trade in "doing" such employers. 2) will make the employers personal assets subject to this. 5) ensure that the courts wouldn't be clogged - employers will "sort out their employee paperwork". Unless they are stupid.
You will make it harder for legitimate Britons to find work. My international and global employers had to squint a bit at the paperwork because I had neither driving licence nor passport to prove my identity and right to work.
There is a certain disgustingness about making honest private individuals and corporations - many not large - have to engage in quasi law enforcement because lawful authority can't or won't police our borders.
It is one more way, out of many, in which honest people are caught out because of the infinity of regulations they are supposed to know, when the government breaks them and fails in their own duties with impunity.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
An electric furnace will definitely be more expensive to operate compared to gas.
Big difference is that blast furnace is producing new iron from ore, whereas electric arc is effectively recycling scrap iron and steel.
Sainsbury's Bank is touting for my business as its closure is announced.
We're having to alter accounts because of Citibank UK's closure. We're having lots of fun as one of the major banks is playing silly beggars with us; trying to sell us loads of products that we don't want or need. It's fairly disgraceful behaviour IMO. All we want is a current account.
In the provinces people are turning to local building societies for these services in large numbers.
"Primary school embroiled in Palestine row may be forced to close Barclay Primary School, in east London, may switch to online learning after ‘arson and bomb threats’ over Islamophobia accusations"
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
An electric furnace will definitely be more expensive to operate compared to gas.
Big difference is that blast furnace is producing new iron from ore, whereas electric arc is effectively recycling scrap iron and steel.
The Tories can kiss goodbye any hopes of a revival in Wales .
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
You can't make 'virgin' steels without a blast furnace. Arc furnaces are used for recycling scrap.
The UK is losing part of its economic complexity.
Doesn't that make it harder to produce alloys of the precise composition required? There must be an increasing degree of adulteration in steels produced from recycling scrap - no doubt fine for many purposes, but presumably not high-tech.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
Indeed, there are plenty of downsides to the relentless obsession with carbon emissions, which will drive significant industry out of developed countries.
Expect another mini-surge in Reform next week as the renewed Rwanda coverage feeds through. Then a dip because I think they are overdue a dip as the media moves on from immigration for a while until the boating season starts in spring.
Early start for the regatta this year. 15 boats/624 people this week. Sort it out, Sunak.
There's roughly 275km of coastline along which a 'small boat' might realistically land.
How do you suggest Sunak - or anyone else- might realistically 'sort it out'? A long chain link fence down the centre line of the channel? Armed guards every 100 yards on every south coat beach with shoot to kill orders? Royal Navy cutters bobbing around every 5 km with dozens spotters with powerful binoculars and a large deck mounted gun ready to blow the migrants to smithereens?
There's an equivalent length of coastline that the French would need to patrol continuously - to stop the departures, arguably they would need even more manpower than it would take to repel a boat at our beaches.
Where is the realistic way of stopping determined but small groups of individuals who can start their journeys anywhere along the coast?
I'm not saying there isn't a problem, and I'm not saying that we should just roll over and do nothing, but anyone who complains about something not being done or something not being done right never seems to suggest anything better.
Simple answer is that there very probably isn't.
But then, I'm not the government that has staked what's left of its reputation on stopping the boats. One of the legends in the national unconciousness is about the foolishness of trying to stop unstoppable things from the sea.
(Slightly less simple answer. If you want to stop the boats, because they are terrible, undercut them by processing on the French coast.
If you want to stop the people, bear in mind that there are bigger flows to worry about, such as holiday travellers just forgetting to leave. But a good place to start is the black economy that many end up in. And you can best do that by going after the employers. Another is to make the desperate places in the world less desperate.
But long story short, there is nothing more pathetic than impotent shouting and coming up with cruelties that you can't impliment for want of better ideas or an ability to change the subject. Which is there the government has landed itself.)
"And you can best do that by going after the employers"
Yup
Once again
1) 100K fine per employee without legal right to work 2) Directors of companies personally liable - so no asset shells don't protect 3) 50% of fine give to whoever reports, upon conviction 4) If the reporting person is undocumented, give them indefinite leave to remain as well, upon conviction of the employer. 5) 6 month grace period until the law comes into force.
3)&4) would ensure a thriving trade in "doing" such employers. 2) will make the employers personal assets subject to this. 5) ensure that the courts wouldn't be clogged - employers will "sort out their employee paperwork". Unless they are stupid.
Once again, the number of people coming over in boats and disappearing into the black economy seems to be low. Far more come over and claim asylum (and then the majority of those are granted asylum). Your plan won't stop the boats.
There are significant numbers of people in the country illegally, but they're mostly visa overstayers. You can, yes, crack down on them. If you are concerned about illegal immigration, that would be a good thing to do. However, the Tories have made small boat crossings totemic.
I sense it's to a large extent psychological. We're an island and the sight of people from foreign countries coming across in small boats and landing uninvited on our shores is making people feel attacked and penetrated. It's 2024, and they're watching it on tv from places far from the coast such as Dudley, but I wonder if it nevertheless invokes subliminal anxieties dating back to the Vikings.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
You can't make 'virgin' steels without a blast furnace. Arc furnaces are used for recycling scrap.
The UK is losing part of its economic complexity.
... and losing our ability to manufacture key materials for core components of tanks, warships and submarines. Madness.
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
There's no evidence in the viral genome that it has been "tweaked". The whole point of biosafety labs is that you don't get an "accidental leak onto researcher shoes".
To explain the data, you would need a transmission from the researcher's shoes to an animal vector in the wet market in order to create a reservoir for multiple subsequent infections, i.e. a period of spread within animals in the market. OK, that's technically possible and hard to tell apart from a direct zoonotic origin, but Russell's teapot applies.
"Henson, a Golden Globe winner, spoke candidly to the New York Times about how much she had to fight for on the set of the Warner Bros film – not just for herself, but for all of the members of the hugely talented ensemble cast, which included Tony-nominated actress Danielle Brooks and Grammy-winning Fantasia Barrino.
“They gave us rental cars, and I was like: ‘I can’t drive myself to set in Atlanta.’ This is insurance liability, it’s dangerous,” Henson told the Times. “So I was like: ‘Can I get a driver or security to take me?’ I’m not asking for the moon.”"
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
You can't make 'virgin' steels without a blast furnace. Arc furnaces are used for recycling scrap.
The UK is losing part of its economic complexity.
... and losing our ability to manufacture key materials for core components of tanks, warships and submarines. Madness.
And these arc furnaces could have been powered by local tidal power, if the Government had remotely got its shit together....
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
You can't make 'virgin' steels without a blast furnace. Arc furnaces are used for recycling scrap.
The UK is losing part of its economic complexity.
... and losing our ability to manufacture key materials for core components of tanks, warships and submarines. Madness.
Plenty of scrap tanks in Ukraine that need recycling....
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
There's no evidence in the viral genome that it has been "tweaked". The whole point of biosafety labs is that you don't get an "accidental leak onto researcher shoes".
To explain the data, you would need a transmission from the researcher's shoes to an animal vector in the wet market in order to create a reservoir for multiple subsequent infections, i.e. a period of spread within animals in the market. OK, that's technically possible and hard to tell apart from a direct zoonotic origin, but Russell's teapot applies.
You get leaks from labs the whole time. Pirbright and FMD is one example but there are plenty of others. In any event, BSL2 is certainly not appropriately secure for work of this nature.
I’m not a geneticist so can’t comment on whether there is specific evidence of tweaking or not. But we do know that similar viruses were collected and brought to the lab and we know that experiments tweaking these viruses were performed there.
It’s all circumstantial and without access to the researchers we will never know for sure. But on a balance of probabilities it is plausible. (My scenario above was a very specific one that I posited as a response to @JosiasJessop ’s comment)
"The Liberal Democrat-turned-Tory took the seat from Labour"
and
"the ex-councillor’s decision to change parties was motivated by opposition to the Town Hall’s low traffic neighbourhood (LTN) policy."
and
Green councillor Alastair Binnie-Lubbock joked: “Before he was a Lib Dem councillor, he was a Labour councillor too. We look forward to him joining the Greens so he can complete his set!”
So the local Labour party disappeared up it's own orifices, and the remarkably adaptable candidate with a strong local following took advantage.
Principal Council Election Gains/ Losses since LE 2023 to date
Con (-20) Lab (-1) LD (+20) Green (+4) Others (-3)
Without Scotland Lab (-4)
SKS Fans??
Perhaps they have all been "local factors" like last nights 30% swing from Lab to Tory in Hackney. Although personally in 40 years of canvassing i have found local issues very few and far between trumps National issues but Heh Ho
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
There will be a gap of several years between shutting down existing furnaces and opening the new ones (assuming that actually happens). Also the electric arc jobs work only with scrap iron/steel - with current tech, they don't replace conventional blast furnaces.
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
There's no evidence in the viral genome that it has been "tweaked". The whole point of biosafety labs is that you don't get an "accidental leak onto researcher shoes".
To explain the data, you would need a transmission from the researcher's shoes to an animal vector in the wet market in order to create a reservoir for multiple subsequent infections, i.e. a period of spread within animals in the market. OK, that's technically possible and hard to tell apart from a direct zoonotic origin, but Russell's teapot applies.
You get leaks from labs the whole time. Pirbright and FMD is one example but there are plenty of others. In any event, BSL2 is certainly not appropriately secure for work of this nature.
I’m not a geneticist so can’t comment on whether there is specific evidence of tweaking or not. But we do know that similar viruses were collected and brought to the lab and we know that experiments tweaking these viruses were performed there.
It’s all circumstantial and without access to the researchers we will never know for sure. But on a balance of probabilities it is plausible. (My scenario above was a very specific one that I posited as a response to @JosiasJessop ’s comment)
The genetic evidence and the early cases point to a reservoir of infected animals in the wet market. That’s not circumstantial; that’s solid evidence. Here’s the Wikipedia summary:
“The first known human infections from SARS‑CoV‑2 were discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.[54] Because many of the early infectees were workers at the Huanan Seafood Market,[67][68] it was originally suggested that the virus might have originated from wild animals sold in the market, including civet cats, raccoon dogs, bats, or pangolins.[50][53] Subsequent environmental analyses demonstrated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the market, with highest prevalence in areas of the market where animals known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection were held.[4][6] Early human cases clustered around the market, and included infections from two separate SARS-CoV-2 lineages.[4][6] These two lineages demonstrated that the virus was actively infecting a population of animals in the market, and that sustained contact between those animals and humans had allowed for multiple viral transmissions into humans.[4][6] All early cases of COVID-19 were later shown to be localized to the market and its immediate vicinity.[6]”
And I think this bit is worth bearing in mind:
“Previous novel disease outbreaks, such as AIDS, H1N1/09, SARS, and Ebola have been the subject of conspiracy theories and allegations that the causative agent was created in or escaped from a laboratory.[87][88][15] Each of these is now understood to have a natural origin.[28]”
So much for trusting Republican closed door hearings, which they insist are (for some unexplained reason*) imperative.
Kevin Morris' attorney sent a letter to Oversight Chair James Comer saying he's misrepresenting Morris' testimony from a closed-door deposition yesterday, per a copy of the letter obtained by POLITICO.
In 2014 the Conservatives won 39 of the council’s 54 seats. This week, they lost their last seat and are down to zero councillors for the first time in the council’s history.
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
There's no evidence in the viral genome that it has been "tweaked". The whole point of biosafety labs is that you don't get an "accidental leak onto researcher shoes".
To explain the data, you would need a transmission from the researcher's shoes to an animal vector in the wet market in order to create a reservoir for multiple subsequent infections, i.e. a period of spread within animals in the market. OK, that's technically possible and hard to tell apart from a direct zoonotic origin, but Russell's teapot applies.
You get leaks from labs the whole time. Pirbright and FMD is one example but there are plenty of others. In any event, BSL2 is certainly not appropriately secure for work of this nature.
I’m not a geneticist so can’t comment on whether there is specific evidence of tweaking or not. But we do know that similar viruses were collected and brought to the lab and we know that experiments tweaking these viruses were performed there.
It’s all circumstantial and without access to the researchers we will never know for sure. But on a balance of probabilities it is plausible. (My scenario above was a very specific one that I posited as a response to @JosiasJessop ’s comment)
Its totally plausible, but so is a zoonotic transfer as with SARs-Cov-1 and MERS, to name just two. What I object to is the hyperventilator in chief forcibly saying no other opinions are allowed than his. He is someone who lives for drama, so naturally will chose the most dramatic version of events. I'd be interested to know his opinions on other great conspiracy theories, as its common for those who believe in one to believe in others...
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
There's no evidence in the viral genome that it has been "tweaked". The whole point of biosafety labs is that you don't get an "accidental leak onto researcher shoes".
To explain the data, you would need a transmission from the researcher's shoes to an animal vector in the wet market in order to create a reservoir for multiple subsequent infections, i.e. a period of spread within animals in the market. OK, that's technically possible and hard to tell apart from a direct zoonotic origin, but Russell's teapot applies.
You get leaks from labs the whole time. Pirbright and FMD is one example but there are plenty of others. In any event, BSL2 is certainly not appropriately secure for work of this nature.
I’m not a geneticist so can’t comment on whether there is specific evidence of tweaking or not. But we do know that similar viruses were collected and brought to the lab and we know that experiments tweaking these viruses were performed there.
It’s all circumstantial and without access to the researchers we will never know for sure. But on a balance of probabilities it is plausible. (My scenario above was a very specific one that I posited as a response to @JosiasJessop ’s comment)
The genetic evidence and the early cases point to a reservoir of infected animals in the wet market. That’s not circumstantial; that’s solid evidence. Here’s the Wikipedia summary:
“The first known human infections from SARS‑CoV‑2 were discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.[54] Because many of the early infectees were workers at the Huanan Seafood Market,[67][68] it was originally suggested that the virus might have originated from wild animals sold in the market, including civet cats, raccoon dogs, bats, or pangolins.[50][53] Subsequent environmental analyses demonstrated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the market, with highest prevalence in areas of the market where animals known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection were held.[4][6] Early human cases clustered around the market, and included infections from two separate SARS-CoV-2 lineages.[4][6] These two lineages demonstrated that the virus was actively infecting a population of animals in the market, and that sustained contact between those animals and humans had allowed for multiple viral transmissions into humans.[4][6] All early cases of COVID-19 were later shown to be localized to the market and its immediate vicinity.[6]”
And I think this bit is worth bearing in mind:
“Previous novel disease outbreaks, such as AIDS, H1N1/09, SARS, and Ebola have been the subject of conspiracy theories and allegations that the causative agent was created in or escaped from a laboratory.[87][88][15] Each of these is now understood to have a natural origin.[28]”
Wikipedia is utter nonsense on this subject. It was taken over by crazy wet market types who now guard it like the precious
As for the idea it is impossible for it to leak from the lab, when Covid hit, that was the original assumption of the woman that runs the lab. That it came from her lab
Just to add a little to Josias Jessop's sensible uncertainty: It is possible that no officials, even in the Chinese government, knows the true origin of the COVID virus. For example, a Chinese lab worker who blundered would have strong reasons to, if possible, conceal any evidence, or even create materials for a cover up.
The recent story about the Chinese missiles filled with water should remind us that even dictatorships often have trouble knowing exactly what is going on in their nations.
(Recently I have been reading Nate Silver's "Signal and Noise", and would recommend it to almost all of you.)
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
You can't make 'virgin' steels without a blast furnace. Arc furnaces are used for recycling scrap.
The UK is losing part of its economic complexity.
It is vital to our national security that these furnaces remain open, and contriving to close them is a fairly simple case of treason.
The UK the only G20 member who will no longer have a domestic steel producer . So in effect the Tory government spent 500 million pounds to lose 3,000 jobs and make it beholdent to foreign steel imports !
Pathetic and shameful .
That doesn't seem consistent with the BBC reporting who are saying that the blast furnaces are being replaced with an electric arc furnace, which are apparently more efficient (and greener) to operate.
You can't make 'virgin' steels without a blast furnace. Arc furnaces are used for recycling scrap.
The UK is losing part of its economic complexity.
It is vital to our national security that these furnaces remain open, and contriving to close them is a fairly simple case of treason.
Calling everyday policy decisions “treason” is one of several ridiculous imports from the US MAGA Right.
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
Indeed, it is a *possible* scenario - which is why I mentioned it. I'd argue against using the word 'real', which can become 'true'.
However, the scenario is quite complex when compared to: "People bought loads of animals in close proximity to each other, and humans, in a market." Which, to be fair, is the same natural source as pretty much every previous epidemic.
Anyone who still pretends to believe it came from “the wet market” is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron
Balloux is himself a virologist of course, and one of the most balanced and least tribal commentators on Covid. Hated in equal measure by both sets of crazies.
The odd thing throughout has been how Lab leak has been dismissed as lunatic conspiracy when several recent epidemics including our own foot and mouth had the same source.
Most novel disease outbreaks are zoonotic: SARS, MERS, mpox, HIV, Ebola, swine flu etc.
The evidence against a lab leak hypothesis for COVID-19 is now overwhelming, notably the initial pattern of cases being clustered around the wet market, and the initial presence of two different strains (showing exposure to a population of viruses circulating in animal hosts).
There has been, at several times, a lot of excitement about a smoking gun for the lab leak theory, with excited speculation on social media. None of these have amounted to anything. It’s rather like the excited speculation on social media that the US government is going to announce that UFOs exist, or the excited speculation on social media that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been created.
Oh dear sweet Jesus. Lol
But thanks. I knew there’d be one PBer that responded with eerie yet adamant lunacy. I internally predicted it would either be you or @turbotubbs - or both
Incidentally the papers about the wet market cluster and the twin lineages have been completely debunked. Even the authors have retreated
I do wonder if those so desperate to deny the possibility of a lab leak would do so if it was a laboratory in the UK, USA or Israel.
"There's absolutely no chance that it was a lab leak from Porton Down, it arose in a farmers market at Salisbury."
The issue is Leon saying stuff like: "(anyone who disagrees with me) is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron"
We are looking at odds here. There are a range of possibilities, some more likely than others. It is unlikely we will ever get certainty (unless China admits it...), so it comes down to the weight an individual puts on the scant pieces of evidence we have. It should be noted that Leon ignores evidence contrary to his oft-stated belief - and it does appear to be a matter of faith for him.
My own view is that it was *probably* the wet market. It *may* have been a leak from a lab, but I currently doubt it. As more evidence comes in, that may change. But this latest 'scoop' is not particularly compelling to me.
Reasonable people can look at the 'evidence' and come up with contrary views. Claiming they may be '...is either a virologist, and possibly implicated in the deaths of 20 million people, or a fucking moron" is unreasonable in itself.
Also be aware that for some 'lab leak' is synonymous with 'an engineered virus'. That's where the debate'll head next for many, regardless of evidence.
I'd also like to add, as ever, that this debate distracts us from something that we can firmly place at China's doorstep: that their secrecy and evasions at the start of the crisis allowed the virus to spread far more rapidly than should have been the case. That's solid stuff that China should be held to account for.
We don’t have scant evidence. We have overwhelming circumstantial evidence to start with: this novel bat coronavirus, weirdly adapted and dangerous for humans, started in the ONLY city in the world which has - or had - a laboratory dedicated to taking novel bat coronaviruses and making them weirdly adaptive and dangerous for humans
What - in gods green earth - are the chances of that? Its slam dunk for most people
But as the years have passed the evidence has gone from circumstantial to actual. Eg we now have - thanks to persistent and dogged hacks and online scholars - hard evidence that the researchers at those Wuhan labs were specifically asking to do the peculiar furin cleavage site engineering which is so notable and unusual about the virus Sarscov2 - they requested funding to do this exact research
And - as very recent evidence shows - when they were turned down they said Oh fuck it, we will do it in Wuhan anyway. This is all documented and undisputed
Meanwhile the evidence for it naturally emerging on the market 300 yards from the most unsafe lab with the bats is precisely zero. They told us it was bats. The market doesn’t sell bats. They told us it was pangolins. Market has no pangolins. They told us it was raccoons. They can’t find the raccoon. They can’t find anything in the market - even as the bat lab sits there, 3 minutes walk away
What does a sane person deduce from that? In all seriousness, it came from the bloody lab. Get over it
What a 'sane' person deduces is that it *may* have been a lab leak. The strength of emphasis on 'may' will depend on your views. What an insane person does is continually screech that it *was* a lab leak.
It is plausible either way. And that is quite damning of the Chinese in itself.
Which suggests that the authorities weren't 'sane' as they denied the possibility.
A denial that suggests they might have something to hide.
They would have been better off saying "we don't know, all possibilities are being considered".
I thought the official line (in the US at least) is that both hypothesis are plausible? It's the certainty that some people have (either way) that causes issues.
Something Leon is very guilty of.
For a year we were banned from even talking about the lab leak on Facebook etc
“Facebook lifts ban on posts claiming Covid-19 was man-made
Social network says policy comes ‘in light of ongoing investigations into the origin’ of virus
The change follows a Wall Street Journal report that US intelligence sources believe there is some evidence to warrant further investigation of the “lab leak” theory.“
The virus being man-made is different from a lab leak, which is different from the wet market hypothesis.
Above, you seamlessly move from 'lab leak' to 'man-made'.
(It is perfectly possible to make a scenario where it is all three: a man-made virus that leaked from the lab to the wet market. But that seems very unlikely from what we know atm. But IANAE...)
Ironically your last paragraph is a very real scenario.
-> original virus was brought to the lab -> virus tweaked (“man made”) -> accidental leak onto researcher shoes -> spread to others at the market
There's no evidence in the viral genome that it has been "tweaked". The whole point of biosafety labs is that you don't get an "accidental leak onto researcher shoes".
To explain the data, you would need a transmission from the researcher's shoes to an animal vector in the wet market in order to create a reservoir for multiple subsequent infections, i.e. a period of spread within animals in the market. OK, that's technically possible and hard to tell apart from a direct zoonotic origin, but Russell's teapot applies.
You get leaks from labs the whole time. Pirbright and FMD is one example but there are plenty of others. In any event, BSL2 is certainly not appropriately secure for work of this nature.
I’m not a geneticist so can’t comment on whether there is specific evidence of tweaking or not. But we do know that similar viruses were collected and brought to the lab and we know that experiments tweaking these viruses were performed there.
It’s all circumstantial and without access to the researchers we will never know for sure. But on a balance of probabilities it is plausible. (My scenario above was a very specific one that I posited as a response to @JosiasJessop ’s comment)
The genetic evidence and the early cases point to a reservoir of infected animals in the wet market. That’s not circumstantial; that’s solid evidence. Here’s the Wikipedia summary:
“The first known human infections from SARS‑CoV‑2 were discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.[54] Because many of the early infectees were workers at the Huanan Seafood Market,[67][68] it was originally suggested that the virus might have originated from wild animals sold in the market, including civet cats, raccoon dogs, bats, or pangolins.[50][53] Subsequent environmental analyses demonstrated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the market, with highest prevalence in areas of the market where animals known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection were held.[4][6] Early human cases clustered around the market, and included infections from two separate SARS-CoV-2 lineages.[4][6] These two lineages demonstrated that the virus was actively infecting a population of animals in the market, and that sustained contact between those animals and humans had allowed for multiple viral transmissions into humans.[4][6] All early cases of COVID-19 were later shown to be localized to the market and its immediate vicinity.[6]”
And I think this bit is worth bearing in mind:
“Previous novel disease outbreaks, such as AIDS, H1N1/09, SARS, and Ebola have been the subject of conspiracy theories and allegations that the causative agent was created in or escaped from a laboratory.[87][88][15] Each of these is now understood to have a natural origin.[28]”
Wikipedia is utter nonsense on this subject. It was taken over by crazy wet market types who now guard it like the precious
As for the idea it is impossible for it to leak from the lab, when Covid hit, that was the original assumption of the woman that runs the lab. That it came from her lab
"Crazy wet market types". So, as usual, when actual, firm evidence is presented which undermines tour case, you simply resort to ad hominem attacks. Not good science, but very good media bullshit.
Comments
"Henson, a Golden Globe winner, spoke candidly to the New York Times about how much she had to fight for on the set of the Warner Bros film – not just for herself, but for all of the members of the hugely talented ensemble cast, which included Tony-nominated actress Danielle Brooks and Grammy-winning Fantasia Barrino.
“They gave us rental cars, and I was like: ‘I can’t drive myself to set in Atlanta.’ This is insurance liability, it’s dangerous,” Henson told the Times. “So I was like: ‘Can I get a driver or security to take me?’ I’m not asking for the moon.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/18/black-women-actors-hollywood-diversity-usc-report
I suspect it is overstayers working in the black market. As most of the small boat arrivals apply for asylum, they are not working illegally. Apart from anything else that violates the conditions of their stay. The asylum seekers I know find the forced idleness quite difficult, with nothing to do but sit around getting depressed.
After 12 months asylum applicants can apply for permission to work, but that isn't illegal employment by definition.
There are significant numbers of people in the country illegally, but they're mostly visa overstayers. You can, yes, crack down on them. If you are concerned about illegal immigration, that would be a good thing to do. However, the Tories have made small boat crossings totemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/18/asylum-seekers-video-australians-towing-them-back-towards-indonesia
Two days later in Antarctica it was a force 11, -17C and with the windchill -50C....
* The blast furnaces will close during 2024 and will be replaced by an electric arc furnace, which produces less CO2
* Electric arc furnaces also require fewer workers to maintain, prompting the job cuts
The black economy is quite large in the UK. And is used to undercut wages. If nothing else, the policy above would get rid of some nasty corners in the economy.
The UK is losing part of its economic complexity.
LD 3 (+1)
LAB 2 (-1)
Con 1 (+0)
A good night for the LDs and Con
Local by election results 18th January 2024: 2 LD Hold (Richmond & Sheffield), 2 Lab holds (Wandsworth & Warwick), 1 LD gain from Con (Richmond) and 1 Con gain from Lab (Hackney)
It is one more way, out of many, in which honest people are caught out because of the infinity of regulations they are supposed to know, when the government breaks them and fails in their own duties with impunity.
Barclay Primary School, in east London, may switch to online learning after ‘arson and bomb threats’ over Islamophobia accusations"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/primary-school-forced-into-online-learning-palestine-flag/
-> original virus was brought to the lab
-> virus tweaked (“man made”)
-> accidental leak onto researcher shoes
-> spread to others at the market
To explain the data, you would need a transmission from the researcher's shoes to an animal vector in the wet market in order to create a reservoir for multiple subsequent infections, i.e. a period of spread within animals in the market. OK, that's technically possible and hard to tell apart from a direct zoonotic origin, but Russell's teapot applies.
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Cazenove (Hackney) council by-election result:
CON: 53.8% (+47.4)
LAB: 31.0% (-13.1)
GRN: 12.8% (+1.0)
LDEM: 2.4% (-35.2)
Votes cast: 3,018
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
A little strange for a Party supposedly 27 points ahead in the Polls and shocking over half of the votes went to the Blue Tories
I’m not a geneticist so can’t comment on whether there is specific evidence of tweaking or not. But we do know that similar viruses were collected and brought to the lab and we know that experiments tweaking these viruses were performed there.
It’s all circumstantial and without access to the researchers we will never know for sure. But on a balance of probabilities it is plausible. (My scenario above was a very specific one that I posited as a response to @JosiasJessop ’s comment)
which gives us this
https://www.hackneycitizen.co.uk/2024/01/17/labour-lifts-suspension-by-election-candidate-accused-transphobia/
and
"The Liberal Democrat-turned-Tory took the seat from Labour"
and
"the ex-councillor’s decision to change parties was motivated by opposition to the Town Hall’s low traffic neighbourhood (LTN) policy."
and
Green councillor Alastair Binnie-Lubbock joked: “Before he was a Lib Dem councillor, he was a Labour councillor too. We look forward to him joining the Greens so he can complete his set!”
So the local Labour party disappeared up it's own orifices, and the remarkably adaptable candidate with a strong local following took advantage.
Con (-20)
Lab (-1)
LD (+20)
Green (+4)
Others (-3)
Without Scotland Lab (-4)
SKS Fans??
Also the electric arc jobs work only with scrap iron/steel - with current tech, they don't replace conventional blast furnaces.
(edit - apologies for the redundant comment.)
https://www.markpack.org.uk/171016/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2023-2024/
“The first known human infections from SARS‑CoV‑2 were discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.[54] Because many of the early infectees were workers at the Huanan Seafood Market,[67][68] it was originally suggested that the virus might have originated from wild animals sold in the market, including civet cats, raccoon dogs, bats, or pangolins.[50][53] Subsequent environmental analyses demonstrated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the market, with highest prevalence in areas of the market where animals known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection were held.[4][6] Early human cases clustered around the market, and included infections from two separate SARS-CoV-2 lineages.[4][6] These two lineages demonstrated that the virus was actively infecting a population of animals in the market, and that sustained contact between those animals and humans had allowed for multiple viral transmissions into humans.[4][6] All early cases of COVID-19 were later shown to be localized to the market and its immediate vicinity.[6]”
And I think this bit is worth bearing in mind:
“Previous novel disease outbreaks, such as AIDS, H1N1/09, SARS, and Ebola have been the subject of conspiracy theories and allegations that the causative agent was created in or escaped from a laboratory.[87][88][15] Each of these is now understood to have a natural origin.[28]”
Kevin Morris' attorney sent a letter to Oversight Chair James Comer saying he's misrepresenting Morris' testimony from a closed-door deposition yesterday, per a copy of the letter obtained by POLITICO.
Also asking Comer to release the transcript
https://twitter.com/jordainc/status/1748322637527281856
*Pretty obviously so that they can release inaccurate spin to the media.
In 2014 the Conservatives won 39 of the council’s 54 seats. This week, they lost their last seat and are down to zero councillors for the first time in the council’s history.
Greens targeting a further 100 Gains according to my latest newsletter
What the by election scoreboard mainly shows is that Liberal Democrats enjoy local by-election campaigns and are good at them.
Much like other people are about metal detecting or growing orchids.
This thread ICINPM.
As for the idea it is impossible for it to leak from the lab, when Covid hit, that was the original assumption of the woman that runs the lab. That it came from her lab
The recent story about the Chinese missiles filled with water should remind us that even dictatorships often have trouble knowing exactly what is going on in their nations.
(Recently I have been reading Nate Silver's "Signal and Noise", and would recommend it to almost all of you.)
Nicola Sturgeon deleted all WhatsApp messages relating to covid pandemic, inquiry told
However, the scenario is quite complex when compared to: "People bought loads of animals in close proximity to each other, and humans, in a market." Which, to be fair, is the same natural source as pretty much every previous epidemic.