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#NU10K – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Unsatisfactorily.
    What do you want - actual deeds and donkeys? 🤷‍♀️
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220
    Has Ed Davey resigned yet?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Leon said:

    Absolutely

    Remember Richie Benaud the Aussie cricket commentator? He had this weird habit of turning direct to the camera and speaking to YOU as a viewer. It was odd, but sometimes effective

    I reckon it would be much more effective from politicians. Stop, wait, turn directly to the camera, and say “SORRY, WE FAILED YOU”

    I reckon that would earn you seven trillion votes and - if @foxy is right - it does not create any legal liability. Also, it is better for everyone if you JUST SAY SORRY if you have clearly screwed up

    Davey has done the opposite, he’s got all the negatives of looking sorry and guilty with none of the positives of fessing up and reaching out. Derrr
    Equally I think if he said “I’m not saying sorry because…” and have good reasons, that would be better than the legalese he seemed to be speaking
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144
    isam said:

    Has there been research on the effect of politicians saying “Sorry”?

    Not “Sorry if” just “Sorry”

    My instinct is the public would prefer it to mealy mouthed, weasel words; people forgive mistakes

    I agree. Although I suspect they don't like it coming from the same person or party too often (I doubt this has happened often enough to research?), as that'd look incompetent and weak.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,994

    We’re back to #NU10K being an ill-defined, nebulous thing. Some of the complaints have been against NHS managers. I train some NHS managers. NHS managers generally start at the bottom and work their way up. Cressida Dick, named in the article, joined the police as a Constable.

    So, who and what are we talking about? Or is this just to be a catch-all slogan for anything people want to complain about?
    Must be some real clowns on their promotion boards if she made it to the top and if she is seen as a star what a state the Met must be in.
  • isam said:

    Has there been research on the effect of politicians saying “Sorry”?

    Not “Sorry if” just “Sorry”

    My instinct is the public would prefer it to mealy mouthed, weasel words; people forgive mistakes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDjRZ30SNo
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,202
    edited January 2024

    I agree. Although I suspect they don't like it coming from the same person or party too often (I doubt this has happened often enough to research?), as that'd look incompetent and weak.
    Has to be/look sincere though. Clegg's great apology didn't do him any favours (too late, it wasn't really an apology for the thing in question...)

    ETA: This version is fun though https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDjRZ30SNo although the insincerity of the non-apology ("we couldn't keep all our promises" - couldn't rather than chose not to)

    Heh, beaten to it by @Sunil_Prasannan - I hadn't seen this version before, was googling the original
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Nigelb said:

    I forecast they will benefit even more from coverage of Davey's resignation, and the election of a new leader.
    It would damage the party in the coming election. Resignation would look like admittance of guilt, though he has little to be guilty for, but it would act like a lightning rod for nations anger right onto the LibDems.

    By next week this spotlight moves from Lib`dems to the far far more guilty Tory Party.
  • Nigelb said:

    If you are a constitutional originalist, the evidence against presidential immunity is absolutely overwhelming.

    I'm interrupting my 2-month Twitter hiatus b/c I've just found a highly relevant speech from the Ratification debates (1788):
    Against Presidential Immunity & Unitary Executive theory (interpreting the Opinions Clause).
    Future SCOTUS Justice Iredell, NC Convention, 7/28/1788:M

    https://twitter.com/jedshug/status/1745830406526505085

    English-born ex-tax collector for British govt who betrayed his employer to lead insurrection (ahem) in North Carolina against King in Parliament.

    VERY, very Woke especially for a slave-owning Federalist.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025

    Your memory is failing you.
    It's really not.

    But I'm happy to do the numbers for you. Even though most people don't actually live in Manchester City Center, and therefore you are deliberately choosing something that most benefits trains.

    And let's give the absolute best case for train time to Paris from Manchester, shall we? Let's go with 4 hours and 30 minutes.

    Let's also pretend that Gare du Nord is not in a pretty inconvenient part of Paris, and that you don't wait 30 minutes for a taxi there.

    Now, of course, what time of day are you leaving? Because there will be - at most - two trains a day from Manchester. That means if you need to get to Paris for - say - an 11am meeting, then that simply is impossible by train, because there won't be a train at ... wait ... 5am. (And yes, you do need to have a train a 5am, or indeed, probably more like 4:30am, because you have that pesky one hour time gap against you.)

    But that's OK. You're starting at Manchester Piccadilly. At 4am. To get that train at 4:30am that won't exist. But we'll pretend it does. This gets you into Gare du Nord at 10am. And you make your 11am meeting.

    If - by contrast - you are catching the 7:05am EasyJet flight to Paris, you don't even need to get up until 5am. You can have a leisurely shower and get to into the station at 5:30am. (So, an hour an a half later than with the train.) You can then either catch a train to Manchester Airport (13 minutes) or get an Uber. The train gets you there an hour and twenty before your flight. Which is plenty of time. And even if you miss the train, there are plenty more.

    Now, the airport's hassle. But you won't have any problems getting on your 7:05am flight, which lands
    at Charles de Gaulle at 9:35am. Take the RER and you'll get to your meeting a few minutes before the train. Take the taxi, and you'll be there massively earlier as you won't be queueing.

    I love trains. And - as I said before - if we were in Schengen it would be different.

    But we're not. And the train from Manchester takes a minimum of three hours more than a plane. If you're starting in the centre and the train times align, then - sure - it's probably more hassle free to catch the train. But it sure as shit isn't quicker.

    And if you're coming from outside the centre - like 95% of people - then it's not going to be close at all. The plane is going to be hours faster.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    Foxy said:

    His work for them (they are a big firm) was purely to do with environmental and energy issues.
    You think the mob baying for blood care about that ?

    As you say above, it's unfair - and spectacularly so that he should be the one politician singled out in this manner - but it's not about fair.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025
    MaxPB said:

    Good thing he doesn't then.
    Damn it, you beat me to it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,449
    Part of Davey's problem is that to be sorry would be to admit that he might not be a very effective politician. He didn't ask the right questions and just got pushed around by the system, in which case what is the point of him?

    The same obviously goes for scores of other people who were in senior positions and failed.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Has Ed Davey resigned yet?

    Has Marquee Mark resigned yet!

    is it really true the Tory government is employing someone on tax payers money whose job is simply to ensure Fujitsu wins government contracts?

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/fujitsu-tax-payer-official-government-contracts-2849729

    To what extent are the Tories exposed to Fujitsu?

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/fujitsu-post-office-scandal-building-digital-uk/

    how many members benefit when Fujitsu wins government contracts? Lobbying can probably be the only explanation why the Tories didn’t take the PO victims side against Fujitsu, for the last nine long years? 😟

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/fujitsu-s-head-lobbyist-during-post-office-scandal-set-up-tory-mps-pressure-group/ar-AA1mLcKp

    Has Marquee Mark resigned yet. For throwing stones in glass houses… you are GUILTY you must admit?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    What do you want - actual deeds and donkeys? 🤷‍♀️
    As a minimum.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    .
    MaxPB said:

    Good thing he doesn't then.
    We look forward to saying the same about whoever succeeds Rishi.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    edited January 2024
    edit Sunil'd.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220

    Has Marquee Mark resigned yet!

    is it really true the Tory government is employing someone on tax payers money whose job is simply to ensure Fujitsu wins government contracts?

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/fujitsu-tax-payer-official-government-contracts-2849729

    To what extent are the Tories exposed to Fujitsu?

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/fujitsu-post-office-scandal-building-digital-uk/

    how many members benefit when Fujitsu wins government contracts? Lobbying can probably be the only explanation why the Tories didn’t take the PO victims side against Fujitsu, for the last nine long years? 😟

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/fujitsu-s-head-lobbyist-during-post-office-scandal-set-up-tory-mps-pressure-group/ar-AA1mLcKp

    Has Marquee Mark resigned yet. For throwing stones in glass houses… you are GUILTY you must admit?
    When he finally resigns, I am going to be vindicated as a great seer of political events....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Nigelb said:

    Didn't one Nick Clegg attempt something along those lines... ?
    His was a prepared statement, still all about them being in control. I think what would be better is a politician responding to an interviewers question with an honest apology.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861

    When he finally resigns, I am going to be vindicated as a great seer of political events....
    Or just part of the mob.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,994
    Pagan2 said:

    We should I agree not get involved in any of the middle east and let it burn, if we are lucky the issues will be solved when either they wipe each other out or we finally get a single power. The middle east has been a powder keg for 100's of years. One of the two options is the only way its ever getting sorted so let it burn
    Post of the day
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Every few years I get the train from Finland to the London and resolve never, ever to do it ever again. Then I try again after a few years and have the same terrible experience.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025
    @Anabobazina

    I used to live here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/58+Leman+St,+Greater,+London+E1+8EU,+UK/@51.5133533,-0.0730587,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4876034a9de3dc7d:0x6dbe49e831155aee!8m2!3d51.51335!4d-0.0704784!16s/g/11c12hv8gs?entry=ttu

    And I used to have to travel regularly into Paris. And it was quicker for me (in London) to fly out of City Airport to Paris than to trek in for the Eurostar.

    I used to catch the 7:12am Air France flight, and I'd set my alarm for 5:50am. A cab would pick me up at 7:10am, and I'd reach City Airport at 7:30am, with more than 40 minutes before my flight.

    Now my place is in Central London, the maths are very different, and I get the Eurostar 100% of the time, but the idea that the train is the quickest route for the majority of people is utterly delusional.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    isam said:

    His was a prepared statement, still all about them being in control. I think what would be better is a politician responding to an interviewers question with an honest apology.
    Yes, but faking sincerity well is a rare skill.
    Davey, who is actually fairly sincere, seems completely to lack that skill.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,071
    Cookie said:

    Again, this seems AFAICS to miss the main Davey issue, which is that he was paid vast amounts in consultancy fees by the lawyers acting for PO management who were trying to bang up innocent SPMs. Unless I am misunderstanding? The issue isn't one of incompetence but of actively helping out the bad guys. I think?
    His role wrt all this is much more problematic than Starmer's. In a GE campaign it'll be bought up like Tim "It's a sin" Farron
  • Meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    What are the odds, that the 2024 Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, will be plagued by something similar to debacles of the 2014 GOP caucuses AND the 2020 Democratic caucuses?

    That is, errors in tabulation and recording of results from thousands of precincts from Dubuque to Sioux Falls, in an election process conducted once every four years (if then) by volunteer organizers and vote counters.

    Possibly aided (if not abetted) by crap technology (what a concept!) and less-than-accountable management at state level. AND exacerbated by close outcomes.

    As in 2012 and 2020.

    More seasoned (and hardened) PBers well- (or rather ill-) remember the angst of Brit bookies and bettors alike when Iowa GOP declared Mitt Romney the winner in 2012 . . . only to take it back and declare Rick Santorum the winner when all votes were canvassed and counted.

    And in 2020, the Democratic cluster-feck similarly robbed the real winner, Pete Buttigieg of his potential (and crucial) early momentum.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    When he finally resigns, I am going to be vindicated as a great seer of political events....
    If you want a bit of apprentice level seer, the chaff the Tories chucked out this week just can’t last much longer, the questions in my previous post - which you can’t answer - will find the Tory Party very soon, along with much anger.

    Do you know where Badenoch is, is she well? Is she in hiding because she’s herself exposed to Fujitsu cash and lobbying?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    edited January 2024

    English-born ex-tax collector for British govt who betrayed his employer to lead insurrection (ahem) in North Carolina against King in Parliament.

    VERY, very Woke especially for a slave-owning Federalist.
    A more comprehensive takedown of the immunity/not an officer nonsense, here:
    https://balkin.blogspot.com/2024/01/eureka-not-president-is-officer-of.html?m=1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Goodbye Tenerife 😔
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,164
    edited January 2024

    I agree. Although I suspect they don't like it coming from the same person or party too often (I doubt this has happened often enough to research?), as that'd look incompetent and weak.
    Just think. Had Boris apologised- properly apologised- for Partygate, he might still be there.

    No, not everyone would have forgiven him, either because they really hated him before or they felt personally taken for a mug by what happened (what was Aaron Bell's line on that?).

    But enough venom would have been taken from enough of the darts to make a difference, I suspect.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,692

    We have little say, but we are involved e.g.

    >Rearming and resupplying Israel from RAF Akrotiri
    >Providing signals intelligence from drones and planes in the med
    >Supporting the American med fleet with a RN task group and ships near Iran

    There's a narrative that we talk about Israel to the exclusion of other world conflicts. Maybe, but we also act in supporting Israel 'unconditionally' and are being drawn into the Yemen problem. Something that was much less of a problem before the conflict.
    In any case, I suspect the poll suffers from 'nice option' bias. Of course people want a cease fire. Who would prefer people shooting to people not shooting? I suspect if you asked people they would also be in favour of Israelis being left alone to live their lives without the threat of murder, kidnap or rape too. This is trying to elicit a yes/no answer to an essay question.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Pulpstar said:

    His role wrt all this is much more problematic than Starmer's. In a GE campaign it'll be bought up like Tim "It's a sin" Farron
    Yes, for all I’ve gone on about it, the effect on Sir Keir will just be to disable his “When I was DPP”
    boasts. No one thinks he should resign. He’s already distancing himself from these cases, having previously claimed full responsibility for every decision taken by the CPS while he was DPP. In this video for example

    https://x.com/maw6578/status/1745559329267196091?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • rcs1000 said:

    @Anabobazina

    I used to live here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/58+Leman+St,+Greater,+London+E1+8EU,+UK/@51.5133533,-0.0730587,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4876034a9de3dc7d:0x6dbe49e831155aee!8m2!3d51.51335!4d-0.0704784!16s/g/11c12hv8gs?entry=ttu

    And I used to have to travel regularly into Paris. And it was quicker for me (in London) to fly out of City Airport to Paris than to trek in for the Eurostar.

    I used to catch the 7:12am Air France flight, and I'd set my alarm for 5:50am. A cab would pick me up at 7:10am, and I'd reach City Airport at 7:30am, with more than 40 minutes before my flight.

    Now my place is in Central London, the maths are very different, and I get the Eurostar 100% of the time, but the idea that the train is the quickest route for the majority of people is utterly delusional.

    But answer the REAL question - did you ever pay cash? For anything?? Ever???
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,202
    Nigelb said:

    Yes, but faking sincerity well is a rare skill.
    Davey, who is actually fairly sincere, seems completely to lack that skill.
    True. But on this question faking sincerity should not be necessary. How can any decent person involved in any way in the PO scandal not be sorry? I believe Davey is decent and I expect he's sorry that he didn't poke around a little harder. He seems to have been Millibanded - prevented by advisors or his own fear from just acting himself.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    rcs1000 said:

    @Anabobazina

    I used to live here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/58+Leman+St,+Greater,+London+E1+8EU,+UK/@51.5133533,-0.0730587,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4876034a9de3dc7d:0x6dbe49e831155aee!8m2!3d51.51335!4d-0.0704784!16s/g/11c12hv8gs?entry=ttu

    And I used to have to travel regularly into Paris. And it was quicker for me (in London) to fly out of City Airport to Paris than to trek in for the Eurostar.

    I used to catch the 7:12am Air France flight, and I'd set my alarm for 5:50am. A cab would pick me up at 7:10am, and I'd reach City Airport at 7:30am, with more than 40 minutes before my flight.

    Now my place is in Central London, the maths are very different, and I get the Eurostar 100% of the time, but the idea that the train is the quickest route for the majority of people is utterly delusional.

    Er...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    kinabalu said:

    Goodbye Tenerife 😔

    Awww. Don’t be sad

    Post photos! With drinks! Seriously. They’re fun
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    Pro-Trump political operative Roger Stone claimed Mediaite’s report he called for assassinating two members of Congress was “fake” and said we “can’t produce the recording.”

    Here it is.

    https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1745830118235201994

    '..“It’s time to do it,” Stone told Greco. “Let’s go find Swalwell. It’s time to do it. Then we’ll see how brave the rest of them are. It’s time to do it. It’s either Swalwell or Nadler has to die before the election. They need to get the message. Let’s go find Swalwell and get this over with...'
  • PO Horizon Inquiry - Grill of the Day

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ookd0H2jpkw
  • Nigelb said:

    Pro-Trump political operative Roger Stone claimed Mediaite’s report he called for assassinating two members of Congress was “fake” and said we “can’t produce the recording.”

    Here it is.

    https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1745830118235201994

    '..“It’s time to do it,” Stone told Greco. “Let’s go find Swalwell. It’s time to do it. Then we’ll see how brave the rest of them are. It’s time to do it. It’s either Swalwell or Nadler has to die before the election. They need to get the message. Let’s go find Swalwell and get this over with...'

    Die Fahne hoch!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,170

    But answer the REAL question - did you ever pay cash? For anything?? Ever???
    Depends how long that Amazon Fresh store across the street has been there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    kinabalu said:

    Goodbye Tenerife 😔

    Did something just happen to it ?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 956
    Ed Davey is in serious trouble, he has upset, well, blamed Senior Civil Servants, one thing a Minister or ex Minister should not do,
    "And Dave Penman, the head of the FDA union for civil servants, branded Sir Ed's comment's "outrageous" and said they were an "act of desperation from a former minister trying to save his own skin".
    Resignation Monday? Think we should be prepared for a New Lib Dem Leader, presumably a woman, the Parliamentary Party has so many.
    Favourite I suppose would be Daisy Cooper.
    Lib Dems are polling very well in the week by week by elections, moving up through the gears 4th to second etc and plenty of wins, a very good one at Salford Quays yesterday. Would a change adversely affect this, probably not when Kennedy packed it in they won the Dunfermline By Election without a leader.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,428

    When he finally resigns, I am going to be vindicated as a great seer of political events....
    If he finally resigns you will be vindicated as the great Stirrer of Sh*t which we always thought you were.
  • Re: PO Scandal, might PO and/or HMG have strong case, based on evidence so far, for taking action against horde of (alleged) lawyers, investigators, tech experts, consultants, vendors, etc. for gross professional misfeasance and/or malfeasance? Amounting to massive misappropriation of public funds, with attendant criminal AND civil liabilities, penalties, etc. ,etc.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144
    theakes said:

    Ed Davey is in serious trouble, he has upset, well, blamed Senior Civil Servants, one thing a Minister or ex Minister should not do,
    "And Dave Penman, the head of the FDA union for civil servants, branded Sir Ed's comment's "outrageous" and said they were an "act of desperation from a former minister trying to save his own skin".
    Resignation Monday? Think we should be prepared for a New Lib Dem Leader, presumably a woman, the Parliamentary Party has so many.
    Favourite I suppose would be Daisy Cooper.
    Lib Dems are polling very well in the week by week by elections, moving up through the gears 4th to second etc and plenty of wins, a very good one at Salford Quays yesterday. Would a change adversely affect this, probably not when Kennedy packed it in they won the Dunfermline By Election without a leader.

    Ministers certainly shouldn't try to palm off blame on officials, unless the officials in question genuinely concealed crucial information or misled the minister. However, I'd be very surprised if senior civil servants don't share a part of the blame in this. It is, after all, they who have the permanent working relationship with the Post Office, against a revolving door of politicians.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    Selebian said:

    True. But on this question faking sincerity should not be necessary. How can any decent person involved in any way in the PO scandal not be sorry? I believe Davey is decent and I expect he's sorry that he didn't poke around a little harder. He seems to have been Millibanded - prevented by advisors or his own fear from just acting himself.
    I know.
    Perhaps he can't process what he sees as the unfairness of being singled out like this. But whatever it is, the inability to respond sympathetically at such a juncture is pretty fatal to a political leader.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861

    Die Fahne hoch!
    Lock him up.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    rcs1000 said:

    @Anabobazina

    I used to live here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/58+Leman+St,+Greater,+London+E1+8EU,+UK/@51.5133533,-0.0730587,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4876034a9de3dc7d:0x6dbe49e831155aee!8m2!3d51.51335!4d-0.0704784!16s/g/11c12hv8gs?entry=ttu

    And I used to have to travel regularly into Paris. And it was quicker for me (in London) to fly out of City Airport to Paris than to trek in for the Eurostar.

    I used to catch the 7:12am Air France flight, and I'd set my alarm for 5:50am. A cab would pick me up at 7:10am, and I'd reach City Airport at 7:30am, with more than 40 minutes before my flight.

    Now my place is in Central London, the maths are very different, and I get the Eurostar 100% of the time, but the idea that the train is the quickest route for the majority of people is utterly delusional.

    My office was 100 yards up the street from you at 2 Leman Street, in the ludicrously named "Aldgate Tower" (despite clearly being in Whitechapel) over Aldgate East Tube. I commuted on HS1 every day. It was hardly a trek, and suggesting that Leman Street is not in central London, being on the boundary of the City, and half a mile from Tower Bridge, is something of a stretch...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220

    If he finally resigns you will be vindicated as the great Stirrer of Sh*t which we always thought you were.
    Pathetic.

    This is a political betting site. And it looks like I have been wise in predicting his demise, unlike the sentimental twerps who think he has done nothing to trouble his career....
  • slade said:

    Greetings from the Western Approaches. Outward bound to Bermuda - and ultimately Sydney. Probably my last great voyage as I will celebrate my 80th birthday somewhere in the Tasman Sea. I will still keep my beady eye on local elections - internet willing.

    Via jet ski? Bon voyage!
  • PO Horizon Inquiry - Grill of the Day

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ookd0H2jpkw

    Update - Today's grill features an extra-oily flounder.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    .

    Pathetic.

    This is a political betting site. And it looks like I have been wise in predicting his demise, unlike the sentimental twerps who think he has done nothing to trouble his career....
    I thought it was quite funny.
    Particularly the capitalisation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945
    rcs1000 said:

    Errrr.

    That poll has the LDs catching up with Reform, when they were previously behind.
    Yes, I know, but I was looking at the More In Common summary earlier today and you can see the two curves converging
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,268
    Nigelb said:

    If you are a constitutional originalist, the evidence against presidential immunity is absolutely overwhelming.

    I'm interrupting my 2-month Twitter hiatus b/c I've just found a highly relevant speech from the Ratification debates (1788):
    Against Presidential Immunity & Unitary Executive theory (interpreting the Opinions Clause).
    Future SCOTUS Justice Iredell, NC Convention, 7/28/1788:M

    https://twitter.com/jedshug/status/1745830406526505085

    Is anyone so wedded to one form of interpretation that they do not give themselves wiggle room to use another when convenient though?

    Though people seem fairly confident the Court won't be that brazen on this point at least.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Nigelb said:

    Did something just happen to it ?
    Yes, massive - I've left!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    Leon said:

    That meant smashing through Camden. We objected; as did then PM Boris Johnson’s dad, and also the MP for Camden, our next PM, Keir Starmer

    It helps to have influential next-door neighbours
    Some slum clearance would have added benefit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    Foxy said:

    Let's see how they do at the byelections. They have never been able to translate their polling to real votes.

    An interesting quote from a recent Reform leaning focus group this morning:

    "There was real anger towards those profiting from misery. Jordan said: “When you see the record-breaking profits [of energy companies] it’s like a kick in the nuts.” Darron fumed at “multinational corporations making billions and billions in profit and hiding their money offshore” and Dale said the public suffer while politicians’ “mates are doing well”.

    In fact, immigration aside, when this group talked about corporate greed, NHS underfunding or the PPE scandal, you could be forgiven for presuming this was in fact a group of hardcore Jeremy Corbyn supporters, rather than voters tempted to back the populist right."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/12/done-with-labour-and-tories-reform-uk-angry-voters

    These are not easy votes for the Tories to gain, they are not right-wing, at least on economic issues.
    Neither are very many of the MAGA crowd, but somehow they’ve been duped into voting for a party that puts the tax freedoms of the American super-rich elite ahead of their own economic interests.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    kle4 said:

    Is anyone so wedded to one form of interpretation that they do not give themselves wiggle room to use another when convenient though?

    Though people seem fairly confident the Court won't be that brazen on this point at least.
    I think the point is that those most likely to incline in favour of Trump are also the most vocal originalists. For them to go against that in so blatant a manner would be serious embarrassing even to an Alito or a Thomas.

    There really isn't any wiggle room for them on this, as it's very hard to see how a textualist approach gets them anywhere else, either.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025
    TOPPING said:

    Er...
    Sorry, I should have said "majority of people not in London is"
  • rcs1000 said:

    @Anabobazina

    I used to live here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/58+Leman+St,+Greater,+London+E1+8EU,+UK/@51.5133533,-0.0730587,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4876034a9de3dc7d:0x6dbe49e831155aee!8m2!3d51.51335!4d-0.0704784!16s/g/11c12hv8gs?entry=ttu

    And I used to have to travel regularly into Paris. And it was quicker for me (in London) to fly out of City Airport to Paris than to trek in for the Eurostar.

    I used to catch the 7:12am Air France flight, and I'd set my alarm for 5:50am. A cab would pick me up at 7:10am, and I'd reach City Airport at 7:30am, with more than 40 minutes before my flight.

    Now my place is in Central London, the maths are very different, and I get the Eurostar 100% of the time, but the idea that the train is the quickest route for the majority of people is utterly delusional.

    Is the moral of this story that Air France's timetable was being secretly run by British Rail?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,268
    edited January 2024
    Nigelb said:

    I think the point is that those most likely to incline in favour of Trump are also the most vocal originalists. For them to go against that in so blatant a manner would be serious embarrassing even to an Alito or a Thomas.

    There really isn't any wiggle room for them on this, as it's very hard to see how a textualist approach gets them anywhere else, either.
    I don't think they have any particular interest in deciding in his favour on this issue - with various delays they'll be hoping he becomes President again and most of it goes away anyway - I just think in general Supreme Court justices don't find it challenging to subordinate their intepretative preferences to their political goals. Not all the time, they're not dumb and they'll pick the right moment to do it, and can be clever in arguing why its ok in a particular situation, but it's their brains that make it easier for them to do it - we can see lesser judges lower down the pecking order get overturned precisely because they are not good at doing it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171
    maxh said:

    Is it really all that? I've always seen it as one of the perennial ways to try to over-commodify cycling with useless inventions cf Rapha bike clothing; titanium frames, diamong encrusted brake callipers (electric bikes being the exception).

    But the tech nerd in me is drawn to it.
    It has its place, but not in my life.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Flying from very small regional airports with no hold luggage is very convenient. You can get a taxi or lift to the front door and arrive at the airport 10 mins before boarding time. The whole thing gets ruined as soon as the airport starts growing in size and Ryanair etc arrive.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    edited January 2024

    Just think. Had Boris apologised- properly apologised- for Partygate, he might still be there.

    No, not everyone would have forgiven him, either because they really hated him before or they felt personally taken for a mug by what happened (what was Aaron Bell's line on that?).

    But enough venom would have been taken from enough of the darts to make a difference, I suspect.
    Yes. If he’d have said “What was I thinking? I wanted to cut the staff some flak and got caught up in the Downing St bubble. I’m so sorry” he might have got away with it as Boris style haphazardness.

    Lockdown did funny things to people. I moved house in mid 2021 and almost moved way out into the country as I’d got so used to not seeing people v often. As it is I moved to a busy-ish village near Chelmsford, but even that seems mental in hindsight, as I was perfectly happy in Upminster. I definitely blame lockdown
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025
    DougSeal said:

    My office was 100 yards up the street from you at 2 Leman Street, in the ludicrously named "Aldgate Tower" (despite clearly being in Whitechapel) over Aldgate East Tube. I commuted on HS1 every day. It was hardly a trek, and suggesting that Leman Street is not in central London, being on the boundary of the City, and half a mile from Tower Bridge, is something of a stretch...
    My current postcode is WC2H 8AN.

    Now that's central London :smile:

    But seriously, London City was a 15 to 18 minute cab ride at that time in the morning, against traffic. By contrast, getting to St Pancras would mean getting the tube. And getting through Security and Passport Control at City Airport is dramatically easier than at St Pancras. They are very happy for you to arrive 30 minutes before your flight, and I've made it with less.

    I did it both ways, and I would much much rather have caught the London City flight than the Eurostar.

    Now, however, I'm a 15 minute cycle from St Pancras. And London City is a LONG way away. It's Eurostar all the way.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Foxy said:

    Let's see how they do at the byelections. They have never been able to translate their polling to real votes.

    An interesting quote from a recent Reform leaning focus group this morning:

    "There was real anger towards those profiting from misery. Jordan said: “When you see the record-breaking profits [of energy companies] it’s like a kick in the nuts.” Darron fumed at “multinational corporations making billions and billions in profit and hiding their money offshore” and Dale said the public suffer while politicians’ “mates are doing well”.

    In fact, immigration aside, when this group talked about corporate greed, NHS underfunding or the PPE scandal, you could be forgiven for presuming this was in fact a group of hardcore Jeremy Corbyn supporters, rather than voters tempted to back the populist right."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/12/done-with-labour-and-tories-reform-uk-angry-voters

    These are not easy votes for the Tories to gain, they are not right-wing, at least on economic issues.
    A lot probably are 2019 Tory voters. Boris had the chance to deliver just what these people wanted. I could be one of them. I don’t see how the Tories win them back
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,890

    Has Ed Davey resigned yet?

    If both Davey and Starmer are defenestrated quickly for Post Officegate, what chance of an early election? Or is Rishi frit? Would he risk it or go for his two year anniversary regardless?

    Would Rishi necessarily win against leaderless opposition? The threat of Richard Burgon would loom large, but is Rishi any more popular than Dickie DiDo?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025

    Pathetic.

    This is a political betting site. And it looks like I have been wise in predicting his demise, unlike the sentimental twerps who think he has done nothing to trouble his career....
    I don't know whether he's done anything wrong or not, but I don't think he's going to resign.

    I'll offer you 3-1 on him going before the election if you like.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945
    rcs1000 said:

    My current postcode is WC2H 8AN...
    Near to "Forbidden Planet". I do approve :)

  • potpourri of most recent headlines in The Seattle Times:

    Boeing is under fire after Alaska Airlines MAX 9 blowout. So is the FAA

    U.S. intensifies oversight of Boeing, will begin production audits

    [WA US Sen. Maria] Cantwell blasts FAA oversight of Boeing after 737 MAX 9 blowout

    Alaska Airlines paid $1,500 to Flight 1282 passengers. That won’t stop the lawsuits

    More Sea-Tac Airport flight cancellations, delays Friday after Boeing 737 MAX 9 blowout

    Alaska Airlines passengers sue Boeing after 737 MAX 9 blowout

    A gaping hole in Boeing’s reputation - [cartoonist] David Horsey
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    rcs1000 said:

    My current postcode is WC2H 8AN.

    Now that's central London :smile:

    But seriously, London City was a 15 to 18 minute cab ride at that time in the morning, against traffic. By contrast, getting to St Pancras would mean getting the tube. And getting through Security and Passport Control at City Airport is dramatically easier than at St Pancras. They are very happy for you to arrive 30 minutes before your flight, and I've made it with less.

    I did it both ways, and I would much much rather have caught the London City flight than the Eurostar.

    Now, however, I'm a 15 minute cycle from St Pancras. And London City is a LONG way away. It's Eurostar all the way.
    London City is an exceptionally good airport. I think it's one of only two in Britain I actively prefer to sandpapering my eyeballs (the other being the delightful backwater that is East Midlands).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    rcs1000 said:

    @Anabobazina

    I used to live here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/58+Leman+St,+Greater,+London+E1+8EU,+UK/@51.5133533,-0.0730587,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4876034a9de3dc7d:0x6dbe49e831155aee!8m2!3d51.51335!4d-0.0704784!16s/g/11c12hv8gs?entry=ttu

    And I used to have to travel regularly into Paris. And it was quicker for me (in London) to fly out of City Airport to Paris than to trek in for the Eurostar.

    I used to catch the 7:12am Air France flight, and I'd set my alarm for 5:50am. A cab would pick me up at 7:10am, and I'd reach City Airport at 7:30am, with more than 40 minutes before my flight.

    Now my place is in Central London, the maths are very different, and I get the Eurostar 100% of the time, but the idea that the train is the quickest route for the majority of people is utterly delusional.

    LCY for the win. Best airport in the world, at what it does.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,890
    kinabalu said:

    Goodbye Tenerife 😔

    Oh no, has Starmer set off Mount Teide?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    edited January 2024

    London City is an exceptionally good airport. I think it's one of only two in Britain I actively prefer to sandpapering my eyeballs (the other being the delightful backwater that is East Midlands).
    They are civilised enough only to deal with one plane at a time. As,Stansted used to be like, before O’Leary turned up offering flights to the unwashed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025
    maxh said:

    Is it really all that? I've always seen it as one of the perennial ways to try to over-commodify cycling with useless inventions cf Rapha bike clothing; titanium frames, diamong encrusted brake callipers (electric bikes being the exception).

    But the tech nerd in me is drawn to it.
    Yes, it is all that.

    Mechanical shifting is a pain. It's never as quick as it could be. And it frequently (no matter how often you adjust it) ends up between gears.

    With my new AXS wireless shifters, changing is instant and it's always absolutely spot on. You click and you're in your new gear. And it's exact. And it's exact every shift.

    And I have the absolute cheapest gravel bike (1x11) setup on my hybrid. So while it was expensive, it wasn't utterly ridiculous.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025

    Is the moral of this story that Air France's timetable was being secretly run by British Rail?
    Oops.

    Some of those 7s should have been 6s.
  • rcs1000 said:

    My current postcode is WC2H 8AN.

    Now that's central London :smile:

    But seriously, London City was a 15 to 18 minute cab ride at that time in the morning, against traffic. By contrast, getting to St Pancras would mean getting the tube. And getting through Security and Passport Control at City Airport is dramatically easier than at St Pancras. They are very happy for you to arrive 30 minutes before your flight, and I've made it with less.

    I did it both ways, and I would much much rather have caught the London City flight than the Eurostar.

    Now, however, I'm a 15 minute cycle from St Pancras. And London City is a LONG way away. It's Eurostar all the way.
    Yours truly once took the boat from the Embankment to Greenwich, got quasi-hijacked at pub near (but not in) Blackheath, hitchhiked to Dover, lodged for the night on a bench at the Salvation Army, took ferry to Calais, hitchhiked to Arras, walked about that night by moonlight, then caught morning train to Paris.

    Not sure that would work as regular commute, but have heard of worse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,756
    IanB2 said:

    Neither are very many of the MAGA crowd, but somehow they’ve been duped into voting for a party that puts the tax freedoms of the American super-rich elite ahead of their own economic interests.
    Yes, but would the MAGA Republicans vote for someone like Romney any more than REFUK voters would turn out for Sunak?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Oh no, has Starmer set off Mount Teide?
    He's a Bad Un!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,756
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, it is all that.

    Mechanical shifting is a pain. It's never as quick as it could be. And it frequently (no matter how often you adjust it) ends up between gears.

    With my new AXS wireless shifters, changing is instant and it's always absolutely spot on. You click and you're in your new gear. And it's exact. And it's exact every shift.

    And I have the absolute cheapest gravel bike (1x11) setup on my hybrid. So while it was expensive, it wasn't utterly ridiculous.
    Surely if you want to get fit then you should not use any of this fancy tech, indeed the more inefficient the bike the better...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,025
    Foxy said:

    Surely if you want to get fit then you should not use any of this fancy tech, indeed the more inefficient the bike the better...
    The goal is to enjoy exercise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,756
    Interesting article by Alan Bates on why he couldn't win today, seems outside the paywall.

    https://www.ft.com/content/1b11f96d-b96d-4ced-9dee-98c40008b172
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know whether he's done anything wrong or not, but I don't think he's going to resign.

    I'll offer you 3-1 on him going before the election if you like.
    3/1 Ed Davey isn’t LD leader at the next GE?
  • As next Monday approaches - its Martin Luther King Day in US a federal legal holiday - am wondering, how many PBers there may be out there, who have ever trudged through the snows of Iowa on Caucus Night?

    Or otherwise participated in the Iowa presidential precinct caucuses, either party, any year? And ditto for New Hampshire presidential primary?

    My own Iowa caucus experiences were in 1988 Dem and 2004 Dem . . . so guess I'm overdue for #3 . . .

    Just looked up weather forecast for Monday for Decorah, county seat and only urb of Winneshiek County in northeast corner of Iowa. Predicted high that day -8 degrees Fahrenheit (-22 Celcius).

    Locals are inured to cold . . . but this is truly gonna be a frosty Caucus night.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know whether he's done anything wrong or not, but I don't think he's going to resign.

    I'll offer you 3-1 on him going before the election if you like.
    I agree. I'm told he's in good spirits and coping well with the pressure. Not going to resign.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I've been doing a commute recently on certain mornings from Finland to London.
    Leave from a local airport around 5.30 getting to London before 9, with a connecting flight. I can get in to the office at the same time as my colleagues who have no idea how I got to work. The 2 hour time difference helps.
  • Foxy said:

    Yes, but would the MAGA Republicans vote for someone like Romney any more than REFUK voters would turn out for Sunak?
    Personally think most of them would.

    With # & % of refuseniks being factor in US & UK; and potentially game-changing depending on margin(s).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    darkage said:

    I've been doing a commute recently on certain mornings from Finland to London.
    Leave from a local airport around 5.30 getting to London before 9, with a connecting flight. I can get in to the office at the same time as my colleagues who have no idea how I got to work. The 2 hour time difference helps.

    Everton striker Arnaud Danjuma apparently gets the plane to training each day from his home in Manchester!
  • And you think that Ed Davey's got it rough?

    NYT (via Seattle Times) - Did Ron DeSantis shake his wife’s hand?

    In a campaign full of strained social interactions and clumsy pantomimes of warmth, Ron DeSantis’ encounter with his wife at the presidential primary debate in Des Moines on Wednesday night was one of the more curious.

    During the second commercial break, DeSantis, the governor of Florida, strode to the edge of the stage and reached down to shake hands with Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, and her husband. Then, with a businesslike rigor, he grasped the outstretched palm of Casey DeSantis, Florida’s first lady.

    Did he just shake his wife’s hand? Onlookers in the room were bewildered.

    Interactions with spouses on the campaign trail can be fraught, even for the most adept politicians and for the warmest of marriages. To be fair, DeSantis was standing on an elevated stage, on a tight timetable, making an embrace impractical. Too much affection runs its own political risks.

    And who knows? Maybe The Handshake was some sort of inside joke, or an effort to create a signature routine, like Barack and Michelle Obama’s coy fist bump (which was weaponized by Obama’s political foes as a “terrorist fist jab.”)

    Andrew Romeo, a spokesperson for the DeSantis campaign, declined to provide a comment but suggested that the story was unimportant four days out from the Iowa caucuses. . . .

    Somehow, illogically, the chaste encounter brought to mind a polar opposite moment in campaign history: a passionate kiss between Vice President Al Gore and his wife at the time, Tipper, onstage at the Democratic National Convention in 2000. (The Kiss was widely interpreted as an effort by a somewhat rigid candidate to loosen up his public image. It was also a noted contrast to the painful marital developments during Bill Clinton’s second term.) . . .

    SSI - Not RDS fan but reckon I'll give him a pass on this one. As for ED . . .
  • Foxy said:

    Interesting article by Alan Bates on why he couldn't win today, seems outside the paywall.

    https://www.ft.com/content/1b11f96d-b96d-4ced-9dee-98c40008b172

    Sadly no, it is inside the paywall
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Foxy said:

    Interesting article by Alan Bates on why he couldn't win today, seems outside the paywall.

    https://www.ft.com/content/1b11f96d-b96d-4ced-9dee-98c40008b172

    Paywalled, and even the old 'Google the FT headline' trick no longer seems to work.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,861
    edited January 2024

    And you think that Ed Davey's got it rough?

    NYT (via Seattle Times) - Did Ron DeSantis shake his wife’s hand?

    In a campaign full of strained social interactions and clumsy pantomimes of warmth, Ron DeSantis’ encounter with his wife at the presidential primary debate in Des Moines on Wednesday night was one of the more curious.

    During the second commercial break, DeSantis, the governor of Florida, strode to the edge of the stage and reached down to shake hands with Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, and her husband. Then, with a businesslike rigor, he grasped the outstretched palm of Casey DeSantis, Florida’s first lady.

    Did he just shake his wife’s hand? Onlookers in the room were bewildered.

    Interactions with spouses on the campaign trail can be fraught, even for the most adept politicians and for the warmest of marriages. To be fair, DeSantis was standing on an elevated stage, on a tight timetable, making an embrace impractical. Too much affection runs its own political risks.

    And who knows? Maybe The Handshake was some sort of inside joke, or an effort to create a signature routine, like Barack and Michelle Obama’s coy fist bump (which was weaponized by Obama’s political foes as a “terrorist fist jab.”)

    Andrew Romeo, a spokesperson for the DeSantis campaign, declined to provide a comment but suggested that the story was unimportant four days out from the Iowa caucuses. . . .

    Somehow, illogically, the chaste encounter brought to mind a polar opposite moment in campaign history: a passionate kiss between Vice President Al Gore and his wife at the time, Tipper, onstage at the Democratic National Convention in 2000. (The Kiss was widely interpreted as an effort by a somewhat rigid candidate to loosen up his public image. It was also a noted contrast to the painful marital developments during Bill Clinton’s second term.) . . .

    SSI - Not RDS fan but reckon I'll give him a pass on this one. As for ED . . .

    RDS suffers from ED ?

    Nice touch calling his spokesperson Romeo.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,756

    Paywalled, and even the old 'Google the FT headline' trick no longer seems to work.
    Try from the FT twitter, that's how I read it:

    https://twitter.com/ftukpolitics/status/1745821127316849030?t=IVuqw3zzU1XNaHnd5h_BEQ&s=19
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Foxy said:

    Try from the FT twitter, that's how I read it:

    https://twitter.com/ftukpolitics/status/1745821127316849030?t=IVuqw3zzU1XNaHnd5h_BEQ&s=19
    That works, cheers!
  • Speaking of cold, it is 21 degrees Fahrenheit (-6 Celsius) on my humble porch right now.

    Coldest its been in these parts (in the lowlands that is) for some time.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,435
    Barnesian said:

    I agree. I'm told he's in good spirits and coping well with the pressure. Not going to resign.
    Not being thrown into the chokey for something you didn't do will do that for a man.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,071

    Speaking of cold, it is 21 degrees Fahrenheit (-6 Celsius) on my humble porch right now.

    Coldest its been in these parts (in the lowlands that is) for some time.

    It is forecast to be 0F at arrowhead Sunday. Poor Tua, he grew up with 18C January lows in Honolulu !
  • Pulpstar said:

    It is forecast to be 0F at arrowhead Sunday. Poor Tua, he grew up with 18C January lows in Honolulu !
    True. However, head up to Mauna Kea and it's possible to get frostbite any month of the year.

    But doubt there's a football field up there. Ditto badminton court.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Has Ed Davey resigned yet?
This discussion has been closed.