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#NU10K – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    maxh said:

    Late to the party but interesting header @Malmesbury, thanks. I must admit I read the title, thought “why are pb.com branching out into conspiracy theories?” and scrolled down expecting to see @Leon or @Luckyguy1983 or one of our other pet conspirators authoring it.

    I think it’s a compliment to say that, when I saw who wrote it, I scrolled back up and read the whole thing.

    I am with @algarkirk that much data is needed before it can move beyond the realms of lizard-people.

    All the same, assuming there is some truth
    to the lack of accountability, I do wonder whether this is just a very imperfect antidote to our current tendency to fetishise individual responsibility in our culture.

    Sure, Paula Vennells is an inadequate human, but we should not have systems or cultures that allow individual inadequacies to have this big an impact. Ergo, individuals who are held responsible for systemic failures probably aren’t as responsible as we think they are.

    This doesn’t mean the opposite is true I.e. that they have much talent. I’d argue few people stand out much either because of their talent or their mendacity. It’s the systems and culture (largely a product of late-stage capitalism) that are more at fault for eg the Horizon mess.

    I've been out exercising and have missed lots of the conversation, so apols. if this has been covered.

    But I think something like this nu10k might be best seen as not a universal truth, but as a nebulous category. There are certainly people it fits rather well (Private Eye would often mention them...), but the lower edges of the 10k will be very nebulous, with far more than 10k people who partly fit it, or even those who aspire to be one of the 10k.

    Also, the nu10k might face more challenges if 'we' got better at training people up from the ranks. In ye olden days, a young lad might be picked out as having management potential on the railways (Gerard Fiennes being one example). They spent a few years at the bottom of the ladder, learning the basics of the business, and would then get promoted up. Many fell by the wayside or got diverted. But at the end of it, you had people at the top who knew the business inside out.

    Nowadays, someone gets promoted to leadership who has zero idea about the industry they are in. That need not be a barrier to success, but it seems it all too often is.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849

    Where do you stand on BA pilots and the covid vaccination? Just asking.
    And what about dendrochronology?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    The 16% one wasn't (assuming it's Emerson College https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-poll-haley-gains-trump-loses-support-but-maintains-lead/)

    A new Emerson College Polling/WHDH New Hampshire survey finds former President Donald Trump leading the Republican Primary with 44% support, followed by Nikki Haley with 28%. Haley has gained ten points since November, while Trump has lost five. Chris Christie, who suspended his campaign on Wednesday evening, received 12% of voter support. Ron DeSantis holds 7%, and Vivek Ramaswamy holds 4%, while five percent remain undecided.
    Thanks Ben

    I guess I was hoping they were both outdated and Hayley would close the gap more in the next set of Polls.

    Fingers crossed

    US with a Biden / Trump choice is even worse than our Sunak/SKS one
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,573

    What about we hold people to account for the things they are in charge of?

    Then they might have an incentive to run their organisations well.

    Late Stage Capitalism is just like “woke” - a label that has ceased to mean more than an insult
    Two fair points. On the former - we should hold people accountable but we should avoid blame. Currently I think we go too far down the blame game.

    Putting aside the bullshit nature of many jobs, including fairly senior roles, someone who is competent enough to succeed at interview most likely remains reasonably competent even if they lead an organisation that performs poorly. I’m not saying that they have no responsibility when things go wrong, but they also don’t have all the responsibility.

    Until recently I volunteered for a disaster relief organisation that, amongst other sensible policies, used the practice taken from aviation and elsewhere of having quarterly near-miss webinars, where we all fessed up to and discussed the times we’d nearly had a RTA, been kidnapped, had aid stolen, got sick etc. No blame, but accountability, helped to ensure that we genuinely ‘learned the lessons’.

    To loop back to your header, someone who presided over a fuck-up but fesses up and reflects on it is probably more competent than they were before, not less. Experience brings wisdom (for most people).

    On your second point - agreed, it was just short-hand for a system that prioritises short-term shareholder value over trust and long-term organisational health. Eg the post office incentivising profit over its public service role as it was privatised. I hope that’s a bit more specific and meaningful.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    The problem HY is it will be the little people who are punished. That is why I think we were so excited that politicians of Davy and Starmer's stature may end up serving jail time.

    My mother died as part of the Princess of Wales Hospital neglect saga. Two Filipino nurses were given custodial sentences. The Hospital managers received no sanction. Many remain in post a dozen years later.
    Has anyone called for Davey or Starmer to serve jail time? Resignations, yes. But jail?

    I'm sorry to hear about your mother. A family member got caught up in the Stafford Hospital mess; he survived, but the attitude of the staff was appalling at all levels.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,558

    The nearest Waitrose to me is 20 miles away at a motorway services. I'd better return to lurking in the basement.

    Has anyone made a 'poshness map' based on supermarkets? Might be quite amusing.

    PS I reckon Aldi/Lidl are a bit more classes than ASDA, which is definitely Non-U.
    I shop at Waitrose and Lidl, like many over-educated and under-earning middle class Britons.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,889
    IanB2 said:

    The mistake is viewing fthis as some sort of organised Freemasons-type of conspiracy, rather than as a rationally performing system.

    The outcome that people who reach the top of business or politics are, nowadays, rarely if ever punished (in any meaningful way) for messing up on the job, is that those punishment decisions sit with other people who are at the top of politics and business, and know that they are just one mistake away from finding themselves in the same position.

    The Post Office case is different, in that lawyers sit in judgement, with the one pitfall that a number of lawyers themselves might be in the firing line.
    Yup


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,132
    I see Barty has hijacked a conspiracy thread with a conspiracy of his own.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983

    Military spending in 2022:

    USA: $877 billion
    China: $292 billion
    Russia: $86 billion
    India: $81 billion
    Saudi Arabia: $75 billion
    UK: $69 billion

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u6dOUvaymI

    You will be so relieved that Rishi has been so focused when the Russian advance on the UK falters after Calais.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849

    The nearest Waitrose to me is 20 miles away at a motorway services. I'd better return to lurking in the basement.

    Has anyone made a 'poshness map' based on supermarkets? Might be quite amusing.

    PS I reckon Aldi/Lidl are a bit more classes than ASDA, which is definitely Non-U.
    What three words. Spar. Lidl. Co-Op. (And it takes all day because of the quality of conversation).

  • @Carnyx when I was a child I lived with my parents, and we would visit my grandparents. My great-grandparents were dead before I can remember.

    Now I'm in my forties, I live in a new build, I visit my parents and I still visit my grandparents who still live in the same houses they lived in 30 years ago.

    So where in your vision of blocking construction should I live? Still with my parents as I did thirty years ago, with my own children, and my siblings (also adults) and my nieces and nephews until my grandparents die?

    Unless we kill off old people, then young people need somewhere to live when they grow up. Our population has grown by ten million - that's not an externality, it is growth, and growth needs paying for sometimes. We need the houses, blocking them deals with no shit.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    jeremyfry said:

    A shame this website isn't about political betting these days (and hasn't for a long time).

    Couldn't be further from the truth. Its mainly that there isn't much worth betting on right now. This will change as we get closer to the election(s) and see some more volatility in the markets, but right now there is not a lot of movement.

    I personally think Labour majority is a value bet. Labour majority 1.31 on Betfair. 100 quid now gets you 131 quid around 2 am on the night of the election. With the polls as they are I am amazed this is still as good as it is. Where else can you get 31% on your investment in under 12 months?

    And yet.

    People are clearly not buying that the huge labour lead is going to be reflected on polling day.

    (Remember folks, only bet what you are prepared to lose/can afford to lose)
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Crozier
    So he's implicated in the Horizon scandal too? I didn't actually realize that!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    algarkirk said:

    Thanks. I use AD/BC most of the time, but context is all. PB is a bit multicultural for systems reflecting but one religious tradition.
    I treat the division a bit like Christmas. It might have Christian roots but it's sufficiently embedded in secular life that it's moved beyond that. And CE/BCE suffers from being both a bit meaningless and too similar.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    jeremyfry said:

    A shame this website isn't about political betting these days (and hasn't for a long time).

    If it's not about political betting and hasn't been for some time, and you don't like it, then why have you continued to visit it. Surely a long time ago minus a week or two you should have twigged and stopped coming here.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    You will be so relieved that Rishi has been so focused when the Russian advance on the UK falters after Calais.
    Israel has beaten them to it without spending $69 Bn on military
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    algarkirk said:

    And what about dendrochronology?
    I'll bite on that one - dendrochronology is useful but flawed. Too prone to selection bias and data mining. Very useful for dating purposes, less so for telling me what the temperature was in Stockholm in 1648.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,889
    algarkirk said:

    There's a problem here. A moment's thought would suggest this: Being a Post office investigator is not a job that anyone capable of doing it properly would want to do.

    If you would be good at doing it it is obvious that you would look first to police work, criminal defence work, forensic accounting, and a number of other intrinsically interesting fields.
    When in Nepal, I was told that

    - you try to get in the U.K. Gurkhas
    - then you try to get in the Singapore Gurkhas
    - then you try and get in the Indian Army Gurkhas
    - then you try the Nepalese Army Gurkhas
    - then you try the Nepalese Army
    - as a last resort you join the Nepalese Police

    The Nepalese seemed to look down on the police. Strangely.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,425

    I've been out exercising and have missed lots of the conversation, so apols. if this has been covered.

    But I think something like this nu10k might be best seen as not a universal truth, but as a nebulous category. There are certainly people it fits rather well (Private Eye would often mention them...), but the lower edges of the 10k will be very nebulous, with far more than 10k people who partly fit it, or even those who aspire to be one of the 10k.

    Also, the nu10k might face more challenges if 'we' got better at training people up from the ranks. In ye olden days, a young lad might be picked out as having management potential on the railways (Gerard Fiennes being one example). They spent a few years at the bottom of the ladder, learning the basics of the business, and would then get promoted up. Many fell by the wayside or got diverted. But at the end of it, you had people at the top who knew the business inside out.

    Nowadays, someone gets promoted to leadership who has zero idea about the industry they are in. That need not be a barrier to success, but it seems it all too often is.
    We’re back to #NU10K being an ill-defined, nebulous thing. Some of the complaints have been against NHS managers. I train some NHS managers. NHS managers generally start at the bottom and work their way up. Cressida Dick, named in the article, joined the police as a Constable.

    So, who and what are we talking about? Or is this just to be a catch-all slogan for anything people want to complain about?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849
    jeremyfry said:

    A shame this website isn't about political betting these days (and hasn't for a long time).

    Any views about at what price the Tories would be value for Wellingborough? IMHO they are in with a chance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    The fruity right also like railways. Big ones. And animal rights.

    Do we have to tear up the tracks and go fox hunting?
    No, listen, good header and you make some interesting points on this topic, it's just the overall 'nu10k' framing I'm not keen on. It lends itself too readily to reactionary cynicism and antiwokery. But that's not your fault.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849
    IanB2 said:

    Vote Green, and live for ever!

    Or, just possibly, approaching death the voter thinks, “stuff the environment!”, and switches parties.
    Far more people die in bed than in the pub. Heed the warning.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,175

    So he's implicated in the Horizon scandal too? I didn't actually realize that!
    'Nobody told me about it'
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    UK is set to give Ukraine £2.5 billion in military support

    I thought we were out of money to feed kids and keep the NHS functional

    New house for Zelensky!!
  • UK is set to give Ukraine £2.5 billion in military support

    I thought we were out of money to feed kids and keep the NHS functional

    New house for Zelensky!!

    Are all Corbynists Russian-apologists who want to see Russia win the war and be able to conquer Europe at will?

    Or is it just you?
  • So he's implicated in the Horizon scandal too? I didn't actually realize that!
    Oh yes, he's in the frame, for sure.

    I expect the mob will get to him when it has finished with Davy and Starmer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,175

    UK is set to give Ukraine £2.5 billion in military support

    I thought we were out of money to feed kids and keep the NHS functional

    New house for Zelensky!!

    Well, you're advocating a new country for Putin.

    (Several probably.)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849
    edited January 2024

    Couldn't be further from the truth. Its mainly that there isn't much worth betting on right now. This will change as we get closer to the election(s) and see some more volatility in the markets, but right now there is not a lot of movement.

    I personally think Labour majority is a value bet. Labour majority 1.31 on Betfair. 100 quid now gets you 131 quid around 2 am on the night of the election. With the polls as they are I am amazed this is still as good as it is. Where else can you get 31% on your investment in under 12 months?

    And yet.

    People are clearly not buying that the huge labour lead is going to be reflected on polling day.

    (Remember folks, only bet what you are prepared to lose/can afford to lose)
    Yes. They are not buying it because we live in times of strange volatility. It's the longer prices that are attractive therefore. I still think NOM is where the value lies. Agree with the advice about afford to lose from long experience!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,889
    kinabalu said:

    No, listen, good header and you make some interesting points on this topic, it's just the overall 'nu10k' framing I'm not keen on. It lends itself too readily to reactionary cynicism and antiwokery. But that's not your fault.
    Nearly anything can be miss used. A chap, back in the day, said some stuff about people being nice to each other. Got nailed to a tree for his trouble. The number of people killed in his name over the following 20 centuries...

    Pointing out the problem isn't... a problem. It's what you do next. I want to democratise society by restoring accountability and ethics in the permeant administrative structure (private and public). Fuck up, and sorry, you don't get an OBE. Or a pay rise.

    Maybe, if we are Neon Fascist extremists - commit perjury (for example), then you should get 10 minutes probation.

    I know, the last is probably over the top, but hey. I'm like that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983

    Couldn't be further from the truth. Its mainly that there isn't much worth betting on right now. This will change as we get closer to the election(s) and see some more volatility in the markets, but right now there is not a lot of movement.

    I personally think Labour majority is a value bet. Labour majority 1.31 on Betfair. 100 quid now gets you 131 quid around 2 am on the night of the election. With the polls as they are I am amazed this is still as good as it is. Where else can you get 31% on your investment in under 12 months?

    And yet.

    People are clearly not buying that the huge labour lead is going to be reflected on polling day.

    (Remember folks, only bet what you are prepared to lose/can afford to lose)
    Jeremy isn't using capital letters. Colour me skeptical but is it Saturday morning already.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Thanks Ben

    I guess I was hoping they were both outdated and Hayley would close the gap more in the next set of Polls.

    Fingers crossed

    US with a Biden / Trump choice is even worse than our Sunak/SKS one
    The Biden/Trump choice is fine as long as they choose Biden.
  • Was in Aberdeen this morning. A city centre almost completely dead. I know that the November figures were good because of Black Friday, but I expect December to be bad and January - which is traditionally bad - to be a disaster.

    Nobody has got any money.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,162
    jeremyfry said:

    A shame this website isn't about political betting these days (and hasn't for a long time).

    What is it about?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Well, you're advocating a new country for Putin.

    (Several probably.)
    Ukraine is a lost cause IMO

    Russia gets more or all of Ukraine whether it takes 6 months or 6 years

    How much we spend has a direct correlation with the number of dead Ukrainians and Russians thats all
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    @Carnyx when I was a child I lived with my parents, and we would visit my grandparents. My great-grandparents were dead before I can remember.

    Now I'm in my forties, I live in a new build, I visit my parents and I still visit my grandparents who still live in the same houses they lived in 30 years ago.

    So where in your vision of blocking construction should I live? Still with my parents as I did thirty years ago, with my own children, and my siblings (also adults) and my nieces and nephews until my grandparents die?

    Unless we kill off old people, then young people need somewhere to live when they grow up. Our population has grown by ten million - that's not an externality, it is growth, and growth needs paying for sometimes. We need the houses, blocking them deals with no shit.

    Where I live, houses had to be stopped from being built because of the sewerage issues.

    A new plant was paid for from public money to give lots of excess capacity. (Not something one can do now, as there isn't the money, unless the developers cough up.)

    This was part of a massive enlargement of the town. By a factor of 5, by now, I should think.

    And I've never complained about house building - except once, when they tried to build on a school's playing fields.

    Go and shove your sanctimony into the earth closet you obviously need to dig in your garden - or expect other people to get, because that's all they'll get from you.
  • Ukraine is a lost cause IMO

    Russia gets more or all of Ukraine whether it takes 6 months or 6 years

    How much we spend has a direct correlation with the number of dead Ukrainians and Russians thats all
    You're a lost cause as far as I'm concerned.

    More dead Russians in this conflict, the better. They're the invaders and if they get Ukraine cheaply then where's next?

    The more military kit we give to Ukraine, the more chance that can help keep Ukrainians alive to defeat the orcs attacking them.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,573
    kinabalu said:

    The Biden/Trump choice is fine as long as they choose Biden.
    But at this stage I think I’d take a Haley presidency over the Biden/Trump choice. Too much downside risk with that one.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013

    Ukraine is a lost cause IMO

    Russia gets more or all of Ukraine whether it takes 6 months or 6 years

    How much we spend has a direct correlation with the number of dead Ukrainians and Russians thats all
    Wait. It was actually USA who invaded Ukraine not Russia. Oh! BJO has just completely changed his tune.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    You're a lost cause as far as I'm concerned.

    More dead Russians in this conflict, the better. They're the invaders and if they get Ukraine cheaply then where's next?

    The more military kit we give to Ukraine, the more chance that can help keep Ukrainians alive to defeat the orcs attacking them.
    Tankies are going to tankie. Russia is going to lose in Ukraine. The question is whether they are militarily defeated in conventional warfare or via a long drawn out Afghanistan style defeat. Left wingers that have been desperate to appease Putin from the get go really don't care about freedom or democracy. They just hate the West.
  • Carnyx said:

    Where I live, houses had to be stopped from being built because of the sewerage issues.

    A new plant was paid for from public money to give lots of excess capacity. (Not something one can do now, as there isn't the money, unless the developers cough up.)

    This was part of a massive enlargement of the town. By a factor of 5, by now, I should think.

    And I've never complained about house building - except once, when they tried to build on a school's playing fields.

    Go and shove your sanctimony into the earth closet you obviously need to dig in your garden - or expect other people to get, because that's all they'll get from you.
    Oh piss off, when was the last time you were dumping your shit in someone else's home as you didn't have and couldn't get your own?

    If more plants are needed, then yes they need to be paid for, and yes they should be paid for by whoever owns and runs the plants - which in your case is the taxpayer because the utilities there are taxpayer owned. In England it means the private firms have that obligation and they need to cough up or go bankrupt and have the taxpayer take their assets from them for nothing if they're bankrupt and then deal with it.

    It is not an externality though. My children need to shit, whether they have their own bedroom, or they live in a room with me in somebody else's house.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983

    Has anyone called for Davey or Starmer to serve jail time? Resignations, yes. But jail?

    I'm sorry to hear about your mother. A family member got caught up in the Stafford Hospital mess; he survived, but the attitude of the staff was appalling at all levels.
    Resignations would be a good start.But are they too important?

    Bradshaw who's smugness yesterday was vomit inducing. I wonder if he has twigged he is small enough and the perfect candidate to carry the can for senior managers and politicians.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    SKS fails to say whether the lowest paid people would pay less tax under a Labour government, using the excuse of the 'state of the public finances' but signs blank cheque to Ukraine and a war on Yemen within 60 Seconds
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    SKS fails to say whether the lowest paid people would pay less tax under a Labour government, using the excuse of the 'state of the public finances' but signs blank cheque to Ukraine and a war on Yemen within 60 Seconds

    This is the sort of stupid comment from people that are unable to do basic maths in their head to be able to compare large numbers.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,464
    edited January 2024
    WillG said:

    Sunak upping UK aid to Ukraine:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/12/rishi-sunak-to-visit-kyiv-after-announcing-rise-in-uk-military-aid-to-ukraine

    Makes me proud of Britain to be there while the US is fucking about. We will always stand up to fascism.

    Let's hope it's an example to the Americans and (non-Baltic and non-Polish) Europeans.

    And that he gets similarly serious about the dire state our own armed forces are in.

    But yes, briefly, one can be proud to be British today.

    Glory to Ukraine. Their heroic resistance has shown that no one can deter, and no power can overcome, free people who want to stay free.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Not to channel @bjo but the Nick Ferrari interview with SKS on the working class is bloody funny.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqrfv8QkmYA
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    WillG said:

    Sunak upping UK aid to Ukraine:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/12/rishi-sunak-to-visit-kyiv-after-announcing-rise-in-uk-military-aid-to-ukraine

    Makes me proud of Britain to be there while the US is fucking about. We will always stand up to fascism.

    I don't think we've upped the ante all that much (Germany's aid is currently around twice ours), but good to see Sunak reinforcing the commitment.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    jeremyfry said:

    A shame this website isn't about political betting these days (and hasn't for a long time).

    Offer us a betting proposition, and we’ll all pile in…

    Either on here, with discussion, or quietly on Betfair, with our £££
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    algarkirk said:

    Thanks. I use AD/BC most of the time, but context is all. PB is a bit multicultural for systems reflecting but one religious tradition.
    HE is a far better system for understanding history.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    SKS fails to say whether the lowest paid people would pay less tax under a Labour government, using the excuse of the 'state of the public finances' but signs blank cheque to Ukraine and a war on Yemen within 60 Seconds

    Can't we wait for there to be a PM Starmer before judging how he gets on?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Fishing said:

    Let's hope it's an example to the Americans and (non-Baltic and non-Polish) Europeans.

    And that he gets similarly serious about the dire state our own armed forces are in.

    But yes, briefly, one can be proud to be British today.

    Glory to Ukraine. Their heroic resistance has shown that no one can deter, and no power can overcome, free people who want to stay free.
    Ukraine has really shown a 1940 mentality in terms of resisting evil. They will be an asset to NATO.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    Ukraine is a lost cause IMO

    Russia gets more or all of Ukraine whether it takes 6 months or 6 years

    How much we spend has a direct correlation with the number of dead Ukrainians and Russians thats all
    And how far are you willing to let Russia come westwards before you think "Hmmm, perhaps we should have stopped him before Ukraine?"

    The Baltics?
    Romania?
    Eastern Germany?

    Because Putin's made it quite clear: he sees his empire as stretching as far west as he can take it. So what's your limit?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    maxh said:

    But at this stage I think I’d take a Haley presidency over the Biden/Trump choice. Too much downside risk with that one.
    Yes I'd rather Trump not be on the ballot. I remain hopeful of that.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,464
    WillG said:

    Ukraine has really shown a 1940 mentality in terms of resisting evil. They will be an asset to NATO.
    ... though I'm increasingly wondering if much of NATO will be an asset to them ...
  • And how far are you willing to let Russia come westwards before you think "Hmmm, perhaps we should have stopped him before Ukraine?"

    The Baltics?
    Romania?
    Eastern Germany?

    Because Putin's made it quite clear: he sees his empire as stretching as far west as he can take it. So what's your limit?
    His?

    The Atlantic Ocean probably.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,975
    For all those of you who have looked thru medieval acts of Parliaments (including the Scottish and Irish Parliaments) - buffs nails - you may be familiar with the "Xth year in the reign of Y" convention. This got really funny with Charles II, whose reign was backdated to his father's death hence memoryholing the Interregnum.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,573
    edited January 2024
    kinabalu said:

    Yes I'd rather Trump not be on the ballot. I remain hopeful of that.
    Agreed but there are different ways to achieve that. Much as I think the court cases against Trump are legitimate, I don't think they will be seen as such by those Americans that would consider voting for Trump this time around.

    So if he is off the ballot by non-democratic means I suspect that weakens, rather than strengthens, American democracy.

    Whereas if he is off the ballot because Haley beats him in the primaries (slim chance though that is) I suspect this strengthens American democracy. And much as I vehemently disagree with the tenets of the US Republican party, I'd prefer to see them back in power for a generation than see the collapse of US democracy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited January 2024

    And how far are you willing to let Russia come westwards before you think "Hmmm, perhaps we should have stopped him before Ukraine?"

    The Baltics?
    Romania?
    Eastern Germany?

    Because Putin's made it quite clear: he sees his empire as stretching as far west as he can take it. So what's your limit?
    Ukraine and not all of Ukraine.

    The sooner we negotiate a settlement the less they get.

    As the ROTW catch up with me eventually the price literally financially and in death of Ukranians will grow exponentially and the outcome is going to be worse.

    Ukraine cant win wont win and eventually the West will move on.

    Zelensky has become very rich on the back of the massive death toll of his countrymen though so thats the main thing
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,573

    Ukraine and not all of Ukraine.

    The sooner we negotiate a settlement the less they get.

    As the ROTW catch up with me eventually the price literally financially and in death of Ukranians will grow exponentially and the outcome is going to be worse.

    Ukraine cant win wont win and eventually the West will move on.

    Zelensky has become very rich on the back of the massive death toll of his countrymen
    What evidence do you have of Zelensky's corrupt wealth gains? Genuine question, not loaded.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    TOPPING said:

    Not to channel @bjo but the Nick Ferrari interview with SKS on the working class is bloody funny.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqrfv8QkmYA

    Saw it the day it happened it is funny as you say

    He is going to crumble like a cheap mince pie in a GE

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,464
    WillG said:

    Ukraine has really shown a 1940 mentality in terms of resisting evil. They will be an asset to NATO.
    I take it you mean a Britain-in-1940 attitude, not a Belgium-in-1940, Netherlands-in-1940, Denmark-in-1940, USA-in-1940, USSR-in-1940, Ireland-in-1940 or France-in-1940 attitude.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    TOPPING said:

    Not to channel @bjo but the Nick Ferrari interview with SKS on the working class is bloody funny.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqrfv8QkmYA

    He missed out a fucking big television, washing machines, compact disc players, and electrical tin openers from his list of working class aspirations. Got the cars in though, so safe for your vote, Bart? Maybe needs to re-watch trainspotting.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    Ukraine and not all of Ukraine.

    The sooner we negotiate a settlement the less they get.

    As the ROTW catch up with me eventually the price literally financially and in death of Ukranians will grow exponentially and the outcome is going to be worse.

    Ukraine cant win wont win and eventually the West will move on.

    Zelensky has become very rich on the back of the massive death toll of his countrymen though so thats the main thing
    So what will you do when a Russia - strengthened by its victory - goes for the rest of Ukraine, or other countries?

    I don't believe thar Zelensky has become very rich on the back of the massive death toll; in fact, he was quite rich before he stood for president (he founded and ran a TV company, as well as being an actor). What's your evidence for that?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737
    The most interesting NATO related story today was Turkey’s response to the Coalition air strikes.

    Add in the Turkish foot dragging over the Scandawegian accession countries, and elements of support to Russia, and you start to have to wonder whether NATO needs to expel Turkey.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    Foxy said:

    When did the left become apologists for Fascism and Imperialism?

    I am old enough to remember when the left fought them by any means necessary.
    The same time some of the left became anti-Semites.

    Fortunately, many on the left did not descend to those depths.

    It's another example of the left and right extremes of politics meeting in a very dark place.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,136
    edited January 2024

    I treat the division a bit like Christmas. It might have Christian roots but it's sufficiently embedded in secular life that it's moved beyond that. And CE/BCE suffers from being both a bit meaningless and too similar.
    CE/BCE is worse. It's the same dates, but aspiring to some sort of universality it doesn't deserve, given the Chinese, Persian, Jewish, etc calendars.

    If I was devising a calender that aspired to cultural universality I'd be looking for the earliest well-dated event that wasn't unique to a single culture. Something like the Crab Nebula supernova (1054 AD), but ideally a lot older, so that as many dates as possible would have a positive year.

    The oldest such event seems to be the 185 AD supernova in Centaurus, which unfortunately would lead to more negative dates than the Christian calendar.

    Here's hoping 1840 will be a great year!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737

    Ukraine and not all of Ukraine.

    The sooner we negotiate a settlement the less they get.

    As the ROTW catch up with me eventually the price literally financially and in death of Ukranians will grow exponentially and the outcome is going to be worse.

    Ukraine cant win wont win and eventually the West will move on.

    Zelensky has become very rich on the back of the massive death toll of his countrymen though so thats the main thing
    Shameful.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    biggles said:

    The most interesting NATO related story today was Turkey’s response to the Coalition air strikes.

    Add in the Turkish foot dragging over the Scandawegian accession countries, and elements of support to Russia, and you start to have to wonder whether NATO needs to expel Turkey.

    It needs to be put on the table. Same with Hungary. At the moment, both are benefiting from a correct assumption that they can play silly, deal with the enemy and be appeased with concessions. Hungary in particular needs to go. Turkey is harder due to it being so strategically important but Erdogan needs to understand that there are limits.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737

    CE/BCE is worse. It's the same dates, but aspiring to some sort of universality it doesn't deserve, given the Chinese, Persian, Jewish, etc calendars.

    If I was devising a calender that aspired to cultural universality I'd be looking for the earliest well-dated event that wasn't unique to a single culture. Something like the Crab Nebula supernova (1054 AD), but ideally a lot older, so that as many dates as possible would have a positive year.

    The oldest such event seems to be the 185 AD supernova in Centaurus, which unfortunately would lead to more negative dates than the Christian calendar.

    Here's hoping 1840 will be a great year!
    Let’s all start again at year one, cultural revolution style.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    O/T

    Rishi did indeed stop ALL boats by the end of the year.

    Another pledge ticked.

    https://news.sky.com/story/no-small-boats-have-crossed-the-channel-for-25-days-the-longest-break-since-2020-13046327

    (Just don't read the bit about Storm Henk)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    maxh said:

    Agreed but there are different ways to achieve that. Much as I think the court cases against Trump are legitimate, I don't think they will be seen as such by those Americans that would consider voting for Trump this time around.

    So if he is off the ballot by non-democratic means I suspect that weakens, rather than strengthens, American democracy.

    Whereas if he is off the ballot because Haley beats him in the primaries (slim chance though that is) I suspect this strengthens American democracy. And much as I vehemently disagree with the tenets of the US Republican party, I'd prefer to see them back in power for a generation than see the collapse of US democracy.
    Agree 100% on Haley getting the GOP nomination being the best outcome.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    So what will you do when a Russia - strengthened by its victory - goes for the rest of Ukraine, or other countries?

    I don't believe thar Zelensky has become very rich on the back of the massive death toll; in fact, he was quite rich before he stood for president (he founded and ran a TV company, as well as being an actor). What's your evidence for that?
    I am like Israel dont bother with evidence and as i have already posted my whereabouts this evening I best be careful

    https://en.hespress.com/77214-egyptian-journalist-found-dead-after-exposing-zelenskys-family-purchase-of-5-m-villa-in-egypt.html
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    It is really nice for Boney that he will remain the MP for Wellingborough in all but name.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-67947135.amp
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The problem HY is it will be the little people who are punished. That is why I think we were so excited that politicians of Davy and Starmer's stature may end up serving jail time.

    My mother died as part of the Princess of Wales Hospital neglect saga. Two Filipino nurses were given custodial sentences. The Hospital managers received no sanction. Many remain in post a dozen years later.
    This sort of thing is what’s behind @Malmesbury’s thinking, that those taking the large pay cheques appear to be unable to be held to account for their failures; and on the rare occasions when they do resign, they usually take a large payout and pop up in a similar (or better!) high-paid job a few months later. None of them ever get ‘struck off’ the management grades, in the same way as often happens to those on the front line.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    kinabalu said:

    Can't we wait for there to be a PM Starmer before judging how he gets on?
    Most likely outcome

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    edited January 2024
    Sandpit said:

    This sort of thing is what’s behind @Malmesbury’s thinking, that those taking the large pay cheques appear to be unable to be held to account for their failures; and on the rare occasions when they do resign, they usually take a large payout and pop up in a similar (or better!) high-paid job a few months later. None of them ever get ‘struck off’ the management grades, in the same way as often happens to those on the front line.
    Peter Bone using his GF as a proxy MP also highlights this. He was out canvassing yesterday.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737

    It needs to be put on the table. Same with Hungary. At the moment, both are benefiting from a correct assumption that they can play silly, deal with the enemy and be appeased with concessions. Hungary in particular needs to go. Turkey is harder due to it being so strategically important but Erdogan needs to understand that there are limits.
    Yes, Hungary is a good point too. They need to be told that they need to choose. With us or against us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834

    The same time some of the left became anti-Semites.

    Fortunately, many on the left did not descend to those depths.

    It's another example of the left and right extremes of politics meeting in a very dark place.
    Too many regard the enemy of their enemy as a friend when all too often they are just another enemy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    algarkirk said:

    Far more people die in bed than in the pub. Heed the warning.
    Thanks for the reminder. It’s beer o’clock, cheers PB! 🍻
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    I am like Israel dont bother with evidence and as i have already posted my whereabouts this evening I best be careful

    https://en.hespress.com/77214-egyptian-journalist-found-dead-after-exposing-zelenskys-family-purchase-of-5-m-villa-in-egypt.html
    https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/507546.aspx
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737
    kinabalu said:

    Agree 100% on Haley getting the GOP nomination being the best outcome.
    Can I make a bid for “least bad” in place of “best”?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225

    O/T

    Rishi did indeed stop ALL boats by the end of the year.

    Another pledge ticked.

    https://news.sky.com/story/no-small-boats-have-crossed-the-channel-for-25-days-the-longest-break-since-2020-13046327

    (Just don't read the bit about Storm Henk)

    Storm Henk being the new officer in charge of UK Border Police? :wink:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163

    It is really nice for Boney that he will remain the MP for Wellingborough in all but name.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-67947135.amp

    She'll lose.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    IanB2 said:

    Well I never.

    Both ‘Meldrew-before-his-time’ Casino and ‘site twat’ Leon arguing that these people need more woke training, as a priority.
    I don't believe it!
  • The problem HY is it will be the little people who are punished. That is why I think we were so excited that politicians of Davy and Starmer's stature may end up serving jail time.

    It's always the little people who are punished. It was something I and my colleagues observed 25 years ago that the punishment for misdemeanours in our organisation was inversely proportional to their position in the organisation, ie those at the bottom got sacked, those in the middle got a final written warning, and those at the top got a hand slap, if anything. It doesn't seem right that a senior manager who loses millions through mismanagement gets off with no major penalty, when someone who makes a mistake further down the tree that costs the organisation a lot less gets a final written warning or sacked.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Selebian said:

    He missed out a fucking big television, washing machines, compact disc players, and electrical tin openers from his list of working class aspirations. Got the cars in though, so safe for your vote, Bart? Maybe needs to re-watch trainspotting.
    Choose life living in No.10.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737
    Selebian said:

    Storm Henk being the new officer in charge of UK Border Police? :wink:
    Just you wait. Europe will impose fair weather by June and the boats will be back. We need to leave the European meteorological area.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,097
    And for all you cycling lovers: electronic shifting, OMG.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    State of Democracy in the UK

    71% of Brits back an immediate Gaza ceasefire.

    ✅ Support 71%
    ❌ Oppose 12%

    82% of Labour voters back a ceasefire.

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 20-21 December
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013

    Saw it the day it happened it is funny as you say

    He is going to crumble like a cheap mince pie in a GE

    But Starmer still more working class than Jeremy Corybyn.

    Question for you, with what is going on at the moment, do you think Shapps should stand down from defence because he is Jewish?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737
    rcs1000 said:

    For all you plane lovers, cockpit views by plane type:




    Out of date. In all those cases it looks like the external door remains attached.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834
    Sandpit said:

    This sort of thing is what’s behind @Malmesbury’s thinking, that those taking the large pay cheques appear to be unable to be held to account for their failures; and on the rare occasions when they do resign, they usually take a large payout and pop up in a similar (or better!) high-paid job a few months later. None of them ever get ‘struck off’ the management grades, in the same way as often happens to those on the front line.
    Being in charge of such things often is career ending, but while those directly involved can be sentenced for manslaughter, higher up it is often a corporate responsibility rather than any individual, so corporate manslaughter is the correct sanction.

    There are plans to have a register for health service managers that people can be struck off if sanction is needed, and any managers with nursing, medical or similar registration already can be.



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    rcs1000 said:

    For all you plane lovers, cockpit views by plane type:


    Nothing like factual inaccuracy in memes. No Max 9 has ever crashed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,737

    State of Democracy in the UK

    71% of Brits back an immediate Gaza ceasefire.

    ✅ Support 71%
    ❌ Oppose 12%

    82% of Labour voters back a ceasefire.

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 20-21 December

    As do I. As does almost everyone. Shame it’s impossible because Hamas doesn’t want it, and that our view is utterly irrelevant anyway seeing as we’re not a party to the conflict…
This discussion has been closed.