2024 opens with LAB a 75% betting chance of winning the election – politicalbetting.com

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

AverageNinja said:

StillWaters said:

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

What does that add to the discussion?

I would like to fuck Boris? Would you not, sexy?

Leon said:

Happy new year from Abu Dhabi airport where I am having champagne and espresso in the lounge. Because

Leon said:

StillWaters said:

Leon said:

Happy new year from Abu Dhabi airport where I am having champagne and espresso in the lounge. Because

JFK’s Chelsea lounge is nicer

Oh I’m sure it is. But this is nice

The best lounge I’ve personally been in is the BA Concorde lounge at LHR

I’ve no doubt the well traveled folk of PB will offer superior examples

But this is notably better and friendlier than Emirates

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

StillWaters said:

Leon said:

Happy new year from Abu Dhabi airport where I am having champagne and espresso in the lounge. Because

JFK’s Chelsea lounge is nicer

Oh I’m sure it is. But this is nice

The best lounge I’ve personally been in is the BA Concorde lounge at LHR

I’ve no doubt the well traveled folk of PB will offer superior examples

But this is notably better and friendlier than Emirates

I'm afraid the Concorde lounge at Heathrow is far too busy to be top tier.

AverageNinja said:

StillWaters said:

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

What does that add to the discussion?

I would like to fuck Boris? Would you not, sexy?

GIN1138 said:

Happy new (General Election) year PB.

Will be the first year where Labour wins a general election for 19 years... Lets hope they live up to people's hopes, wishes and expectations 🙏










*Hint: Of COURSE they will disappoint *

Taz said:

AverageNinja said:

StillWaters said:

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

What does that add to the discussion?

I would like to fuck Boris? Would you not, sexy?

Your level of insight and commentary has been sorely missed.

Taz said:

Heathener said:

Happy New Election Year everyone.

I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.

I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.

How’s your flask ?

Taz said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So 97 mk 2 if he’s right

jonny83 said:

Major Tsunami warning issued off the west coast of Japan after a 7.6 magnitude earthquake.

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.

I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.

As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.

Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.

WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.

AverageNinja said:

StillWaters said:

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

What does that add to the discussion?

I would like to fuck Boris? Would you not, sexy?

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?

Icarus said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?

Re Reform -point 7 - I dont suppose that Boris could swallow his dislike of Farage and join Reform could he?

Sean_F said:

AverageNinja said:

StillWaters said:

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

What does that add to the discussion?

I would like to fuck Boris? Would you not, sexy?

Err, No.

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Shit.

Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.

Heathener said:

Taz said:

Heathener said:

Happy New Election Year everyone.

I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.

I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.

How’s your flask ?

And there’s the sort-of reason why I don’t reside on here.

The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.

But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.

You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.

Fishing said:

Why is the Kerch Bridge still standing almost two years into the war? Why are F16s only just starting to dribble into Ukraine? Why aren't Tauruses and ATACMS blowing Russians to Kingdom Come, or at least back to Russia? Why does Ukraine still not have anything like enough shells?

rottenborough said:

Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?

Robert Peston
@Peston
After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from
@Dominic2306

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?

Robert Peston
@Peston
After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from
@Dominic2306

I don't think any of The Dominator's relevations are news to anybody who has been paying attention. The RN has 10 submarines (shortly to be 9, thanks tories) of which 8 currently work consuming 50% of the service's budget.

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.

I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.

As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.

Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.

WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.

I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.

Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.

Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.

The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?

One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.

One of the least surprising events of the year, was the unfortunate accident involving Mr Prigozhin following his coup attempt!

Mexicanpete said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

AverageNinja said:

StillWaters said:

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

What does that add to the discussion?

I would like to fuck Boris? Would you not, sexy?

Err, No.

Not my type (in the most obvious way imaginable), but clearly the man has (or more likely had) something about him. Charisma, if you like.

Shame he never found much useful to do with it.

Sometimes loud, boorish, entitled arrogance can be mislabeled as "charisma".

Foxy said:

Icarus said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?

Re Reform -point 7 - I dont suppose that Boris could swallow his dislike of Farage and join Reform could he?

I don't think so. He fancies himself to come back from the wilderness as Tory saviour. Complete delusion of course.

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.

I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.

As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.

Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.

WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.

I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.

Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.

Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.

The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?

One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.

I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.

As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.

Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.

WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.

I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.

Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.

Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.

The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?

One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.

One of the least surprising events of the year, was the unfortunate accident involving Mr Prigozhin following his coup attempt!

I disagree.

A Russian who had pissed off Mad Vlad dying in a mysterious accident not involving a window was an extremely surprising event.

MarqueeMark said:

Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.

I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.

He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".

2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?

Robert Peston
@Peston
After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from
@Dominic2306

I don't think any of The Dominator's relevations are news to anybody who has been paying attention. The RN has 10 submarines (shortly to be 9, thanks tories) of which 8 currently work consuming 50% of the service's budget.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

AverageNinja said:

StillWaters said:

AverageNinja said:

Fuck the Tories

What does that add to the discussion?

I would like to fuck Boris? Would you not, sexy?

Err, No.

Not my type (in the most obvious way imaginable), but clearly the man has (or more likely had) something about him. Charisma, if you like.

Shame he never found much useful to do with it.

Sometimes loud, boorish, entitled arrogance can be mislabeled as "charisma".

Boris did charm any number of women into bed. Call it charisma because it wasn't his svelte figure.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Meeks’s predictions for 2024, seconds old:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078

TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.

Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.

So.

Here are my predictions:

(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)

(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.

(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.

(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.

(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.

(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.

(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.

(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.

(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.

(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.

(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.

(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.

(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.

Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.

I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.

As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.

Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.

WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.

I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.

Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.

Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.

The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?

One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.

One of the least surprising events of the year, was the unfortunate accident involving Mr Prigozhin following his coup attempt!

I disagree.

A Russian who had pissed off Mad Vlad dying in a mysterious accident not involving a window was an extremely surprising event.

MarqueeMark said:

Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.

I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.

He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".

2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.

MarqueeMark said:

I'm going to be quite contrarian on Trump. He will NOT be the Republican candidate in 2024.

This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)

Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.

As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.

Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.

There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.

However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.

rottenborough said:

MarqueeMark said:

Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.

I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.

He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".

2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.

A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.

I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?